Search results for: code blue simulation module

Authors: C. Müller, T. Ortmann, S. Scholl, H. J. Jördening

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Multienzymatic catalysis can be used as an alternative to chemical synthesis or hydrolysis of polysaccharides for the production of high value oligosaccharides from cheap resources such as sucrose. However, development of multienzymatic processes is complex, especially with respect to suitable conditions for enzymes originating from different organisms. Furthermore, an optimal configuration of the catalysts in a reaction cascade has to be found. These challenges can be approached by design of experiments. The system investigated in this study is a trienzymatic catalyzed reaction which results in laminaribiose production from sucrose and comprises covalently immobilized sucrose phosphorylase (SP), glucose isomerase (GI) and laminaribiose phosphorylase (LP). Operational windows determined with design of experiments and kinetic data of the enzymes were used to optimize the enzyme ratio for maximum product formation and minimal production of byproducts. After adjustment of the enzyme activity ratio to 1: 1.74: 2.23 (SP: LP: GI), different process options were investigated in silico. The considered options included substrate dependency, the use of glucose as co-substrate and substitution of glucose isomerase by glucose addition. Modeling of batch operation in a stirred tank reactor led to yields of 44.4% whereas operation in a continuous stirred tank reactor resulted in product yields of 22.5%. The maximum yield in a bienzymatic system comprised of sucrose phosphorylase and laminaribiose phosphorylase was 67.7% with sucrose and different amounts of glucose as substrate. The experimental data was in good compliance with the process model for batch operation. The continuous operation will be investigated in further studies. Simulation of operational process possibilities enabled us to compare various operational modes regarding different aspects such as cost efficiency, with the minimum amount of expensive and time-consuming practical experiments. This gives us more flexibility in process implementation and allows us, for example, to change the production goal from laminaribiose to higher oligosaccharides.

Keywords: design of experiments, enzyme kinetics, multi-enzymatic system, in silico process development

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Authors: Martin Alexander Eder, Sergei Semenov

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Many glass-epoxy composite structures, such as large utility wind turbine rotor blades (WTBs), comprise of adhesive joints with typically thick bond lines used to connect the different components during assembly. Performance optimization of rotor blades to increase power output by simultaneously maintaining high stiffness-to-low-mass ratios entails intricate geometries in conjunction with complex anisotropic material behavior. Consequently, adhesive joints in WTBs are subject to multiaxial stress states with significant stress gradients depending on the local joint geometry. Moreover, the dynamic aero-elastic interaction of the WTB with the airflow generates non-proportional, variable amplitude stress histories in the material. Empiricism shows that a prominent failure type in WTBs is high cycle fatigue failure of adhesive bond line interfaces, which in fact over time developed into a design driver as WTB sizes increase rapidly. Structural optimization employed at an early design stage, therefore, sets high demands on computationally efficient interface fatigue models capable of predicting the critical locations prone for interface failure. The numerical stress-based interface fatigue model presented in this work uses the Drucker-Prager criterion to compute three different damage indices corresponding to the two interface shear tractions and the outward normal traction. The two-parameter Drucker-Prager model was chosen because of its ability to consider shear strength enhancement under compression and shear strength reduction under tension. The governing interface damage index is taken as the maximum of the triple. The damage indices are computed through the well-known linear Palmgren-Miner rule after separate rain flow-counting of the equivalent shear stress history and the equivalent pure normal stress history. The equivalent stress signals are obtained by self-similar scaling of the Drucker-Prager surface whose shape is defined by the uniaxial tensile strength and the shear strength such that it intersects with the stress point at every time step. This approach implicitly assumes that the damage caused by the prevailing multiaxial stress state is the same as the damage caused by an amplified equivalent uniaxial stress state in the three interface directions. The model was implemented as Python plug-in for the commercially available finite element code Abaqus for its use with solid elements. The model was used to predict the interface damage of an adhesively bonded, tapered glass-epoxy composite cantilever I-beam tested by LM Wind Power under constant amplitude compression-compression tip load in the high cycle fatigue regime. Results show that the model was able to predict the location of debonding in the adhesive interface between the webfoot and the cap. Moreover, with a set of two different constant life diagrams namely in shear and tension, it was possible to predict both the fatigue lifetime and the failure mode of the sub-component with reasonable accuracy. It can be concluded that the fidelity, robustness and computational efficiency of the proposed model make it especially suitable for rapid fatigue damage screening of large 3D finite element models subject to complex dynamic load histories.

Keywords: adhesive, fatigue, interface, multiaxial stress

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Authors: G. Judakova, M. Bause

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The ability to model and simulate numerically natural gas flow in pipelines has become of high importance for the design of pipeline systems. The understanding of the formation of hydrate particles and their dynamical behavior is of particular interest, since these processes govern the operation properties of the systems and are responsible for system failures by clogging of the pipelines under certain conditions. Mathematically, natural gas flow can be described by multiphase flow models. Using the two-fluid modeling approach, the gas phase is modeled by the compressible Euler equations and the particle phase is modeled by the pressureless Euler equations. The numerical simulation of compressible multiphase flows is an important research topic. It is well known that for nonlinear fluxes, even for smooth initial data, discontinuities in the solution are likely to occur in finite time. They are called shock waves or contact discontinuities. For hyperbolic and singularly perturbed parabolic equations the standard application of the Galerkin finite element method (FEM) leads to spurious oscillations (e.g. Gibb's phenomenon). In our approach, we use stabilized FEM, the streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin (SUPG) method, where artificial diffusion acting only in the direction of the streamlines and using a special treatment of the boundary conditions in inviscid convective terms, is added. Numerical experiments show that the numerical solution obtained and stabilized by SUPG captures discontinuities or steep gradients of the exact solution in layers. However, within this layer the approximate solution may still exhibit overshoots or undershoots. To suitably reduce these artifacts we add a discontinuity capturing or shock capturing term. The performance properties of our numerical scheme are illustrated for two-phase flow problem.

Keywords: two-phase flow, gas-particle mixture, inviscid two-fluid model, euler equation, finite element method, streamline upwind petrov-galerkin, shock capturing

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Authors: Ekele T. Ochedi, Ahmad H. Taki, Birgit Painter

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The effect of the sun and its path on thermal comfort and energy consumption in residential buildings in tropical climates constitute a serious concern for designers, building owners, and users. Passive design approaches based on the sun and its path have been identified as a means of reducing energy consumption as well as enhancing thermal comfort in buildings worldwide. Hence, a thorough understanding regarding the sun path is key to achieving this. This is necessary due to energy need, poor energy supply, and distribution, energy poverty, and over-dependence on electric generators for power supply in Nigeria. These challenges call for a change in the approach to energy-related issues, especially in terms of buildings. The aim of this study is to explore the influence of building orientation, glazing and the use of shading devices on residential buildings in Nigeria. This is intended to provide data that will guide designers in the design of energy-efficient residential buildings. The paper used EnergyPlus to analyze a typical semi-detached residential building in Lokoja, Nigeria using hourly weather data for a period of 10 years. Building performance was studied as well as possible improvement regarding different orientations, glazing types and shading devices. The simulation results show some reductions in energy consumption in response to changes in building orientation, types of glazing and the use of shading devices. The results indicate 29.45% reduction in solar gains and 1.90% in annual operative temperature using natural ventilation only. This shows a huge potential to reduce energy consumption and improve people’s well-being through the use of proper building orientation, glazing and appropriate shading devices on building envelope. The study concludes that for a significant reduction in total energy consumption by residential buildings, the design should focus on multiple design options rather than concentrating on one or few building elements. Moreover, the investigation confirms that energy performance modeling can be used by building designers to take advantage of the sun and to evaluate various design options.

Keywords: energy consumption, energy-efficient buildings, glazing, thermal comfort, shading devices, solar gains

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Authors: Di Yao, Gunther Prokop, Kay Buttner

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Dynamic parameters, including the center of gravity, mass and inertia moments of vehicle, play an essential role in vehicle simulation, collision test and real-time control of vehicle active systems. To identify the important vehicle dynamic parameters, a systematic parameter identification procedure is studied in this work. In the first step of the procedure, a conceptual parallel manipulator (virtual test rig), which possesses three rotational degrees-of-freedom, is firstly proposed. To realize kinematic characteristics of the conceptual parallel manipulator, the kinematic analysis consists of inverse kinematic and singularity architecture is carried out. Based on the Euler's rotation equations for rigid body dynamics, the dynamic model of parallel manipulator and derivation of measurement matrix for parameter identification are presented subsequently. In order to reduce the sensitivity of parameter identification to measurement noise and other unexpected disturbances, a parameter optimization process of searching for optimal exciting trajectory of parallel manipulator is conducted in the following section. For this purpose, the 321-Euler-angles defined by parameterized finite-Fourier-series are primarily used to describe the general exciting trajectory of parallel manipulator. To minimize the condition number of measurement matrix for achieving better parameter identification accuracy, the unknown coefficients of parameterized finite-Fourier-series are estimated by employing an iterative algorithm based on MATLAB®. Meanwhile, the iterative algorithm will ensure the parallel manipulator still keeps in an achievable working status during the execution of optimal exciting trajectory. It is showed that the proposed procedure and methods in this work can effectively identify the vehicle dynamic parameters and could be an important application of parallel manipulator in the fields of parameter identification and test rig development.

Keywords: parameter identification, parallel manipulator, singularity architecture, dynamic modelling, exciting trajectory

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Authors: Fuyuan Ma, Yuhan Wang, Junhe Zhang, Ying Wang

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Identifying the sources of information dissemination is a pivotal task in the study of collective behaviors in networks, enabling us to discern and intercept the critical pathways through which information propagates from its origins. This allows for the control of the information’s dissemination impact in its early stages. Numerous methods for source detection rely on pre-existing, underlying propagation models as prior knowledge. Current models that eschew prior knowledge attempt to harness label propagation algorithms to model the statistical characteristics of propagation states or employ Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for deep reverse modeling of the diffusion process. These approaches are either deficient in modeling the propagation patterns of information or are constrained by the over-smoothing problem inherent in GNNs, which limits the stacking of sufficient model depth to excavate global propagation patterns. Consequently, we introduce the ODESI model. Initially, the model employs a label propagation algorithm to delineate the distribution density of infected states within a graph structure and extends the representation of infected states from integers to state vectors, which serve as the initial states of nodes. Subsequently, the model constructs a deep architecture based on GNNs-coupled Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to model the global propagation patterns of continuous propagation processes. Addressing the challenges associated with solving ODEs on graphs, we approximate the analytical solutions to reduce computational costs. Finally, we conduct simulation experiments on two real-world social network datasets, and the results affirm the efficacy of our proposed ODESI model in source identification tasks.

Keywords: source identification, ordinary differential equations, label propagation, complex networks

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Authors: Marius Gavrilescu, Sabina-Adriana Floria, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Natural sciences provide a wide range of experimental data whose related problems require study and modeling beyond the capabilities of conventional methodologies. Such problems have solution spaces whose complexity and high dimensionality require correspondingly complex regression methods for proper characterization. In this context, we propose an optimization method which consists in a hybrid dual optimizer setup: a global optimizer based on a modified variant of the popular Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA), and a local optimizer based on a gradient descent approach. The ICA is modified such that intermediate solution populations are more quickly and efficiently pruned of low-fitness individuals by appropriately altering the assimilation, revolution and competition phases, which, combined with an initialization strategy based on low-discrepancy sampling, allows for a more effective exploration of the corresponding solution space. Subsequently, gradient-based optimization is used locally to seek the optimal solution in the neighborhoods of the solutions found through the modified ICA. We use this combined approach to find the optimal configuration and weights of a fully-connected neural network, resulting in regression models used to characterize the process of obtained bricks using silicon-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. Thus, the purpose of our approach is to determine by simulation the working conditions, including the manufacturing mix recipe with the addition of different materials, to minimize the emissions represented by CO and CH4. Our approach determines regression models which perform significantly better than those found using the traditional ICA for the aforementioned problem, resulting in better convergence and a substantially lower error.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, regression models, bricks, emissions

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Authors: Yu-Wen Huang, Yi-Cheng Chiang

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With urban development, lots of buildings are built around the city. The buildings always affect the urban wind environment. The accelerative situation of wind caused of buildings often makes pedestrians uncomfortable, even causes the accidents and dangers. Factors influencing pedestrian level wind including atmospheric boundary layer, wind direction, wind velocity, planting, building volume, geometric shape of the buildings and adjacent interference effects, etc. Planting has many functions including scraping and slowing urban heat island effect, creating a good visual landscape, increasing urban green area and improve pedestrian level wind. On the other hand, urban square is an important space element supporting the entrance to buildings, city landmarks, and activity collections, etc. The appropriateness of urban square environment usually dominates its success. This research focuses on the effect of tree-planting on the wind environment of urban square. This research studied the square belt of Taichung City Hall. Taichung City Hall is a cuboid building with a large mass opening. The square belt connects the front square, the central opening and the back square. There is often wind draft on the square belt. This phenomenon decreases the activities on the squares. This research applies tree-planting to improve the wind environment and evaluate the effects of two types of planting configuration. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation analysis and extensive field measurements are applied to explore the improve efficiency of planting configuration on wind environment. This research compares efficiencies of different kinds of planting configuration, including the clustering array configuration and the dispersion, and evaluates the efficiencies by the SET*.

Keywords: micro-climate, wind environment, planting configuration, comfortableness, computational fluid dynamics (CFD)

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Se-Mi Lim, Won-Jae Jung, Jin-Sup Kim, Jun-Seok Park, Hyung-Il Chae

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This paper presents a current-mode vertical hall device (VHD) structure using metal layers in a CMOS process. The proposed metal layer based vertical hall device (MLVHD) utilizes vertical connection among metal layers (from M1 to the top metal) to facilitate hall effect. The vertical metal structure unit flows a bias current Ibias from top to bottom, and an external magnetic field changes the current distribution by Lorentz force. The asymmetric current distribution can be detected by two differential-mode current outputs on each side at the bottom (M1), and each output sinks Ibias/2 ± Ihall. A single vertical metal structure generates only a small amount of hall effect of Ihall due to the short length from M1 to the top metal as well as the low conductivity of the metal, and a series connection between thousands of vertical structure units can solve the problem by providing NxIhall. The series connection between two units is another vertical metal structure flowing current in the opposite direction, and generates negative hall effect. To mitigate the negative hall effect from the series connection, the differential current outputs at the bottom (M1) from one unit merges on the top metal level of the other unit. The proposed MLVHD is simulated in a 3-dimensional model simulator in COMSOL Multiphysics, with 0.35 μm CMOS process parameters. The simulated MLVHD unit size is (W) 10 μm × (L) 6 μm × (D) 10 μm. In this paper, we use an MLVHD with 10 units; the overall hall device size is (W) 10 μm × (L)78 μm × (D) 10 μm. The COMSOL simulation result is as following: the maximum hall current is approximately 2 μA with a 12 μA bias current and 100mT magnetic field; This work was supported by Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion(IITP) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No.R7117-16-0165, Development of Hall Effect Semiconductor for Smart Car and Device).

Keywords: CMOS, vertical hall device, current mode, COMSOL

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Authors: Danilo Di Donato

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The continuous new releases of free and open source software (FOSS) and the high costs of proprietary software -whose monopoly is characterized by closed codes and the low level of implementation and customization of software by end-users- impose a reflection on possible tools that can be chosen and adopted for the design and the representation of new steel constructions. The paper aims to show experimentation carried out to verify the actual potential and the effective applicability of FOSS supports to the BIM modeling of steel structures, particularly considering the goal of a possible workflow in order to achieve high level of development (LOD); allow effective interchange methods between different software. To this end, the examined software packages are those with open source or freeware licenses, in order to evaluate their use in architectural praxis. The test has primarily involved the experimentation of Freecad -the only Open Source software that allows a complete and integrated BIM workflow- and then the results have been compared with those of two proprietary software, Sketchup and TeklaBim Sight, which are released with a free version, but not usable for commercial purposes. The experiments carried out on Open Source, and freeware software was then compared with the outcomes that are obtained by two proprietary software, Sketchup Pro and Tekla Structure which has special modules particularly addressed to the design of steel structures. This evaluation has concerned different comparative criteria, that have been defined on the basis of categories related to the reliability, the efficiency, the potentiality, achievable LOD and user-friendliness of the analyzed software packages. In order to verify the actual outcomes of FOSS BIM for the steel structure projects, these results have been compared with a simulation related to a real case study and carried out with a proprietary software BIM modeling. Therefore, the same design theme, the project of a shelter of public space, has been developed using different software. Therefore the purpose of the contribution is to assess what are the developments and potentialities inherent in FOSS BIM, in order to estimate their effective applicability to professional practice, their limits and new fields of research they propose.

Keywords: BIM, steel buildings, FOSS, LOD

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Authors: Liu Bijin

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Floating breakwaters have several advantages, including being environmentally friendly, easy to construct, and cost-effective regardless of water depth. They have a broad range of applications in coastal engineering. However, they face significant challenges due to the unstable effect of wave dissipation, structural vulnerability, and high mooring system requirements. This paper investigates the wave dissipation performance of a floating breakwater structure. The structure consists of double cylinders, double vertical plates, and horizontal connecting plates. The investigation is carried out using physical model tests and numerical simulation methods based on STAR-CCM+. This paper discusses the impact of wave elements, relative vertical plate heights, and relative horizontal connecting plate widths on the wave dissipation performance of the double-cylinder, double-plate floating breakwater (DCDPFB). The study also analyses the changes in local vorticity and velocity fields around the DCDPFB to determine the optimal structural dimensions. The study found that the relative width of the horizontal connecting plate, the relative height of the vertical plate, and the size of the semi-cylinder are the key factors affecting the wave dissipation performance of the DCDPFB. The transmittance coefficient is minimally affected by the wave height and the depth of water entry. The local vortex and velocity field formed around the DCDPFB are important factors for dissipating wave energy. The test section of the DCDPFB, constructed according to the relative optimal structural dimensions, showed good wave dissipation performance during offshore prototype tests. The test section of DCDPFB, constructed with optimal structural dimensions, exhibits excellent wave dissipation performance in offshore prototype tests.

Keywords: floating breakwater, wave dissipation performance, transmittance coefficient, model test

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Authors: Asal Pournaghshband

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This paper presents the development of a finite element model to study the large deflection behavior of restrained stainless steel cellular beams at elevated temperature. Cellular beams are widely used for efficient utilization of raw materials to facilitate long spans with faster construction resulting sustainable design solution that can enhance the performance and merit of any construction project. However, their load carrying capacity is less than the equivalent beams without opening due to developing shear-moment interaction at the openings. In structural frames due to elements continuity, such beams are restrained by their adjoining members which has a substantial effect on beams behavior in fire. Stainless steel has also become integral part of the build environment due to its excellent corrosion resistance, whole life-cycle costs, and sustainability. This paper reports the numerical investigations into the effect of structural continuity on the thermo-mechanical performance of restrained steel beams with circle and elongated circle shapes of web opening in fire. The numerical model is firstly validated using existing numerical results from the literature, and then employed to perform a parametric study. The structural continuity is evaluated through the application of different levels of axial restraints on the response of carbon steel and stainless steel cellular beam in fire. The transit temperature for stainless steel cellular beam is shown to be less affected by the level of axial stiffness than the equivalent carbon steel cellular beam. Overall, it was established that whereas stainless steel cellular beams show similar stages of behavior of carbon steel cellular beams in fire, they are capable of withstanding higher temperatures prior to the onset of catenary action in large deflection, despite the higher thermal expansion of stainless steel material.

Keywords: axial restraint, catenary action, cellular beam, fire, numerical modeling, stainless steel, transit temperature

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Authors: Marzieh Khezerloo, Lyazid Djenidi

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Owing to wide range of the micro-device applications, the problems of mixing at small scales is of significant interest. Also, because most of the processes produce heat, it is needed to develop and implement strategies for heat removal in these devices. There are many studies which focus on the effect of roughness or suction on heat transfer performance, separately, although it would be useful to take advantage of these two methods to improve heat transfer performance. Unfortunately, there is a gap in this area. The present numerical study is carried to investigate the combined effects of roughness and wall suction on heat transfer performance of a laminar channel flow; suction is applied on the top and back faces of the roughness element, respectively. The study is carried out for different Reynolds numbers, different suction rates, and various locations of suction area on the roughness. The flow is assumed two dimensional, incompressible, laminar, and steady state. The governing Navier-Stokes equations are solved using ANSYS-Fluent 18.2 software. The present results are tested against previous theoretical results. The results show that by adding suction, the local Nusselt number is enhanced in the channel. In addition, it is shown that by applying suction on the bottom section of the roughness back face, one can reduce the thickness of thermal boundary layer, which leads to an increase in local Nusselt number. This indicates that suction is an effective means for improving the heat transfer rate (suction by controls the thickness of thermal boundary layer). It is also shown that the size and intensity of vortical motion behind the roughness element, decreased with an increasing suction rate, which leads to higher local Nusselt number. So, it can be concluded that by using suction, strategically located on the roughness element, one can control both the recirculation region and the heat transfer rate. Further results will be presented at the conference for coefficient of drag and the effect of adding more roughness elements.

Keywords: heat transfer, laminar flow, numerical simulation, roughness, suction

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Authors: Meinrad Haule Lembuka

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Introduction: Ubuntu culture represents African humanism with collective and positive feeling of people living together, interdependence, equally and peaceful etc. Overtime, Ubuntu culture developed varieties of communicative strategies to express experiences, feelings and knowledge. Khanga or kanga (garment) is among the Ubuntu cultural practice of Bantu speaking people along the East African coast following interaction with Arabs and Bantu speaking people to formulate Swahili culture. Kanga or Kanga is a Swahili word which means a traditional soft cotton cloths in varieties of colours, patterns, and styles which as a deep cultural, historical, and social significance not only in Tanzania but the rest of East African coast. Swahili culture is a sub culture of Ubuntu African culture which is rich in customs and rituals that serve to preserve goodness and life where Tanzania, like the rest of East African societies along the Indian coast engaged in kanga dressing custom under Swahili culture to express their feelings and knowledge sharing. After the independence of Tanzania (formerly Tanganyika) from British colonial rule, Kanga traditional dressing gained momentum in Swahili culture and spread to the rest of East Africa and beyond. To date kanga dressing holds a good position as a formal and informal tool for advocating marginalised groups, counselling, psychosocial therapy, liberation, compassion, love, justice, campaign, and cerebration etc. Methodology: A literature review method was guided by Ubuntu theory to assess the implications of kanga traditional dressing in empowering Tanzanian community. Findings: During slavery, slaves wore Kaniki and people despised Kaniki dressing due to its association with slavery. Ex-slave women seeking to become part of the Swahili society began to decorate their Kaniki clothes. After slavery was abolished in 1897, Kangas began to be used for self-empowerment and to indicate that the wearer had personal wealth. During colonial era, freedom of expressions for Africans were restricted by colonial masters thus Tanzanians used kanga to express the evils of colonialism and other social problems, Under Ubuntu value of unity and solidarity liberation and independence fighters crafted motto and liberation messages that were shared and spread rapidly in the community. Political parities like TANU used kanga to spread nationalism and Ujamaa policy. kanga is more than a piece of fabric-it is a space for women to voice unspeakable communication and a women-centred repository for indigenous knowledge, feminisms addressing social ills, happiness, campaigns, memories and reconciliation etc. Kanga provides an indirect voice and support vulnerable and marginalised populations and strongly it has proved to be a peaceful platform of capture attention of government and societies. Kanga textiles gained increased international fame when an Obama kanga design was produced upon the president’s election in 2008 and his visit to Tanzania in 2013. Conclusion: Kanga preserves and symbolises Swahili culture and contributes in realization of social justice, inclusion, national identity and unity. As an inclusive cultural tool, Kanga spread across Africa to international community and the practice has moved from being a woman domination dressing code to other sex orientations.

Keywords: African culture, Kanga, khanga, swahili culture, ubuntu

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Authors: Mequanint Birhan

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Modern urban environments present a dynamically growing field where, notwithstanding shared goals, several mutually conflicting interests frequently collide. However, it has a big impact on the city's socioeconomic standing, waiting lines and queues are common occurrences. This results in extremely long lines for both vehicles and people on incongruous routes, service coagulation, customer murmuring, unhappiness, complaints, and looking for other options sometimes illegally. The root cause of this is corruption, which leads to traffic jams, stopping, and packing vehicles beyond their safe carrying capacity, and violating the human rights and freedoms of passengers. This study focused on the optimizing time of passengers had to wait in public vehicle stations. This applied research employed both data gathering sources and mixed approaches, then 166 samples of key informants of transport station were taken by using the Slovin sampling formula. The length of time vehicles, including the drivers and auxiliary drivers ‘Weyala', had to wait was also studied. To maximize the service level at vehicle stations, a queuing model was subsequently devised ‘Menaharya’. Time, cost, and quality encompass performance, scope, and suitability for the intended purposes. The minimal response time for passengers and vehicles queuing to reach their final destination at the stations of the Tepi, Mizan, and Bonga towns was determined. A new bus station system was modeled and simulated by Arena simulation software in the chosen study area. 84% improvement on cost reduced by 56.25%, time 4hr to 1.5hr, quality, safety and designed load performance calculations employed. Stakeholders are asked to put the model into practice and monitor the results obtained.

Keywords: Arena 14 automatic rockwell, queue, transport services, vehicle stations

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Authors: Zhang Jun, Zhai Shucheng, Bai Yaqiang, Zhang Guoping

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The Gymnarchus Niioticus fish(GNF) cruises generally with high efficiency by undulating ribbon-fin propulsion while keeping its body for straight line. The swing amplitude of GNF fins is usually in 60° to 90°, and in normal state the amplitude is close to 90°, only in the control of hovering or swimming at very low speed, the amplitude is smaller (about 60°). It provides inspiration for underwater robot design. In the paper, the unsteady flow of undulating ribbon-fin propulsion is numerical simulated by the dynamic grid technique including spring-based smoothing model and local grid remeshing to adapt to the fin surface significantly deforming, and the swing amplitude of fin ray reaches 850. The numerical simulation method is validated by thrust experiments. The spatial vortex structure and its evolution with phase angle is analyzed. The propulsion mechanism is investigated by comprehensive analysis of the hydrodynamics, vortex structure, and pressure distribution on the fin surface. The numerical results indicates that there are mainly three kinds of vortexes, i.e. streamwise vortex, crescent vortex and toroidal vortex. The intensity of streamwise vortex is the strongest among all kinds of vortexes. Streamwise vortexes and crescent vortexes all alternately distribute on the two sides of mid-sagittal plane. Inside the crescent vortexes is high-speed flow, while outside is low-speed flow. The crescent vortexes mainly induce high-speed axial jet, which produces the primary thrust. This is hydrodynamic mechanism undulating ribbon-fin propulsion. The streamwise vortexes mainly induce the vertical jet, which generates the primary heave force. The effect on hydrodynamics of main geometry and movement parameters including wave length, amplitude and advanced coefficients is investigated. A bionic underwater robot with bilateral undulating ribbon-fins is designed, and its navigation performance and maneuverability are measured.

Keywords: bionic propulsion, mobile robot, underwater robot, undulating ribbon-fins

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Authors: Hong Yu, Dirk Heider, Suresh Advani

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Increasing demands for high strength and lightweight materials in aircraft industry prompted the wide use of carbon composites in recent decades. Carbon composite laminates used on aircraft structures are subject to lightning strikes. Unlike its metal/alloy counterparts, carbon fiber reinforced composites demonstrate smaller electrical conductivity, yielding more severe damages due to Joule heating. The anisotropic nature of composite laminates makes the electrical and thermal conduction within carbon composite laminates even more complicated. Good understanding of the electrical conduction behavior of carbon composites is the key to effective lightning protection design. The goal of this study is to numerically and experimentally investigate the impact of ultra-high temperature induced by simulated lightning strike on the electrical conduction of carbon composites. A lightning simulator is designed to apply standard lightning current waveform to composite laminates. Multiple carbon composite laminates made from IM7 and AS4 carbon fiber are tested and the transient resistance data is recorded. A microstructure based resistor network model is developed to describe the electrical and thermal conduction behavior, with consideration of temperature dependent material properties. Material degradations such as thermal and electrical breakdown are also modeled to include the effect of high current and high temperature induced by lightning strikes. Good match between the simulation results and experimental data indicates that the developed model captures the major conduction mechanisms. A parametric study is then conducted using the validated model to investigate the effect of system parameters such as fiber volume fraction, inter-ply interface quality, and lightning current waveforms.

Keywords: carbon composite, joule heating, lightning strike, resistor network

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Authors: Maru R., Singh V. P.

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In this research, analytical study of the flexural strength of Concrete Filled Steel Tube (CFST) beams is carried out based on wide-range finite element models to obtain the better perspective for flexural strength achievement with the use of ABAQUS finite element program. This work adopts concrete damaged plasticity model to get the actual simulation of CFST under bending. To get the decent interaction between concrete and steel, normal and tangential surface interaction provided by ABAQUS is used with hard contact for normal surface interaction and for 0.65 friction coefficient for tangential surface interactions. In this study, rectangular and square CFST beam model cross-sections are adopted with its limits pertained to Eurocode specifications. To get the visualization for flexural strength of CFST beams, total of 74 rectangular CFST beams and 86 square CFST beams are used with four-point bending test setup and the length of the beam model as 1000mm. The grades of concrete and grades of steel are used as 30 MPa & 35MPa and 235 MPa and 275MPa respectively for both sections to get the confinement factor 0.583 to 2.833, steel ratio of 0.069 to 0.236 and length to depth ratio of 4.167 to 16.667. It was found based on this study that flexural strength of CFST beams falls around strain of 0.012. Eurocode provides the results harmonically with finite elemental results. It was also noted for square sections that reduction of steel ratio is not useful as compared to rectangular section although it increases moment capacity up to certain limits because for square sectional area similar to that of rectangular, it possesses lesser depth than rectangular sections. Also It can be said that effect of increment of grade of concrete can be achieved when thicker steel tube is present. It is observed that there is less increment in moment capacity initially but after D/b ratio 1.2, moment capacity of CFST beam rapidly.

Keywords: ABAQUS, CFST beams, flexural strength, four-point bending, rectangular and square sections

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Authors: Daniele Calvi, Loris Franchi, Sabrina Corpino

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Thanks to the latest Mars mission, the planetary exploration has made enormous strides over the past ten years increasing the interest of the scientific community and beyond. These missions aim to fulfill many complex operations which are of paramount importance to mission success. Among these, a special mention goes to the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) functions which require a dedicated system to overcome all the obstacles of these critical phases. The general objective of the system is to safely bring the spacecraft from orbital conditions to rest on the planet surface, following the designed mission profile. For this reason, this work aims to develop a simulation tool integrating the re-entry trajectory algorithm in order to support the EDL design during the preliminary phase of the mission. This tool was used on a reference unmanned mission, whose objective is finding bio-evidence and bio-hazards on Martian (sub)surface in order to support the future manned mission. Regarding the concept of operations (CONOPS) of the mission, it concerns the use of Space Penetrator Systems (SPS) that will descend on Mars surface following a ballistic fall and will penetrate the ground after the impact with the surface (around 50 and 300 cm of depth). Each SPS shall contain all the instrumentation required to sample and make the required analyses. Respecting the low-cost and low-mass requirements, as result of the tool, an Entry Descent and Impact (EDI) system based on inflatable structure has been designed. Hence, a solution could be the one chosen by Finnish Meteorological Institute in the Mars Met-Net mission, using an inflatable Thermal Protection System (TPS) called Inflatable Braking Unit (IBU) and an additional inflatable decelerator. Consequently, there are three configurations during the EDI: at altitude of 125 km the IBU is inflated at speed 5.5 km/s; at altitude of 16 km the IBU is jettisoned and an Additional Inflatable Braking Unit (AIBU) is inflated; Lastly at about 13 km, the SPS is ejected from AIBU and it impacts on the Martian surface. Since all parameters are evaluated, it is possible to confirm that the chosen EDI system and strategy verify the requirements of the mission.

Keywords: EDL, Mars, mission, SPS, TPS

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Authors: Chi H. Lin, Chi C. Lin, Chih L. Hsieh

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Motor Imagery (MI) alone or combined with action observation (AO) has been shown to enhance motor performance and skill learning. The most effective way to combine these techniques has received limited scientific scrutiny. In the present study, we examined the effects of simultaneous (i.e., observing an action whilst imagining carrying out the action concurrently), alternate (i.e., observing an action and then doing imagery related to that action consecutively) and synthesis (alternately perform action observation and imagery action and then perform observation and imagery action simultaneously) AOMI combinations on improving golf putting performance and learning. Participants, 45 university students who had no formal experience of using imagery for the study, were randomly allocated to one of four training groups: simultaneous action observation and motor imagery (S-AOMI), alternate action observation and motor imagery (A-AOMI), synthesis action observation and motor imagery (A-S-AOMI), and a control group. And it was applied 'Different Experimental Groups with Pre and Post Measured' designs. Participants underwent eighteen times of different interventions, which were happened three times a week and lasting for six weeks. We analyzed the information we received based on two-factor (group × times) mixed between and within analysis of variance to discuss the real effects on participants' golf putting performance and learning about different intervention methods of different types of combined action observation and motor imagery. After the intervention, we then used imagery questionnaire and journey to understand the condition and suggestion about different motor imagery and action observation intervention from the participants. The results revealed that the three experimental groups both are effective in putting performance and learning but not for the control group, and the A-S-AOMI group is significantly better effect than S-AOMI group on golf putting performance and learning. The results confirmed the effect of motor imagery combined with action observation on the performance and learning of golf putting. In particular, in the groups of synthesis, motor imagery, or action observation were alternately performed first and then performed motor imagery, and action observation simultaneously would have the best effectiveness.

Keywords: motor skill learning, motor imagery, action observation, simulation

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Authors: Swee Yang Low, Dong Eon Kim, Canh Tien Trinh Nguyen, Yixiong Cai, Shie-Yui Liong

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Nee Soon swamp forest is one of the last vestiges of tropical wetland in Singapore. Understanding the hydrological regime of the swamp forest and implications for water quality is critical to guide stakeholders in implementing effective measures to preserve the wetland against anthropogenic impacts. In particular, although current field measurement data do not indicate a concern with organic pollution, reviewing the ways in which the wetland responds to elevated organic waste influx (and the corresponding impact on dissolved oxygen, DO) can help identify potential hotspots, and the impact on the outflow from the catchment which drains into downstream controlled watercourses. An integrated water quality model is therefore developed in this study to investigate spatial and temporal concentrations of DO levels and organic pollution (as quantified by biochemical oxygen demand, BOD) within the catchment’s river network under hypothetical, projected scenarios of spiked upstream inflow. The model was developed using MIKE HYDRO for modelling the study domain, as well as the MIKE ECO Lab numerical laboratory for characterising water quality processes. Model parameters are calibrated against time series of observed discharges at three measurement stations along the river network. Over a simulation period of April 2014 to December 2015, the calibrated model predicted that a continuous spiked inflow of 400 mg/l BOD will elevate downstream concentrations at the catchment outlet to an average of 12 mg/l, from an assumed nominal baseline BOD of 1 mg/l. Levels of DO were decreased from an initial 5 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l. Though a scenario of spiked organic influx at the swamp forest’s undeveloped upstream sub-catchments is currently unlikely to occur, the outcomes nevertheless will be beneficial for future planning studies in understanding how the water quality of the catchment will be impacted should urban redevelopment works be considered around the swamp forest.

Keywords: hydrology, modeling, water quality, wetland

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Sara Mosallanejad, Bogdan Z. Dlugogorski, Jeff Gore, Mohammednoor Altarawneh

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Ammonium nitrate (NH­₄NO₃, AN) is commonly used as the main component of AN emulsion and fuel oil (ANFO) explosives, that use extensively in civilian and mining operations for underground development and tunneling applications. The emulsion formulation and wettability of AN prills, which affect the physical stability and detonation of ANFO, highly depend on the surface tension, density, viscosity of the used liquid. Therefore, for engineering applications of this material, the determination of density and surface tension of concentrated aqueous solutions of AN is essential. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method have been used to investigate the density and the surface tension of high concentrated ammonium nitrate solutions; up to its solubility limit in water. Non-polarisable models for water and ions have carried out the simulations, and the electronic continuum correction model (ECC) uses a scaling of the charges of the ions to apply the polarisation implicitly into the non-polarisable model. The results of calculated density and the surface tension of the solutions have been compared to available experimental values. Our MD simulations show that the non-polarisable model with full-charge ions overestimates the experimental results while the reduce-charge model for the ions fits very well with the experimental data. Ions in the solutions show repulsion from the interface using the non-polarisable force fields. However, when charges of the ions in the original model are scaled in line with the scaling factor of the ECC model, the ions create a double ionic layer near the interface by the migration of anions toward the interface while cations stay in the bulk of the solutions. Similar ions orientations near the interface were observed when polarisable models were used in simulations. In conclusion, applying the ECC model to the non-polarisable force field yields the density and surface tension of the AN solutions with high accuracy in comparison to the experimental measurements.

Keywords: ammonium nitrate, electronic continuum correction, non-polarisable force field, surface tension

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Authors: Abdullah Alenezi, Mane Alsudrawi, Rafat Misak

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Kuwait is faced with a potentially wide and harmful range of both natural and anthropogenic hazardous events such as dust storms, floods, fires, nuclear accidents, earthquakes, oil spills, tsunamis and other disasters. For Kuwait can be highly vulnerable to these complex environmental risks, an up-to-date and in-depth understanding of their typology, genesis, and impact on the Kuwaiti society is needed. Adequate anticipation and management of environmental crises further require a comprehensive system of decision support to the benefit of decision makers to further bridge the gap between (technical) risk understanding and public action. For that purpose, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), intends to establish a decision support center for management of the environmental crisis in Kuwait. The center will support policy makers, stakeholders and national committees with technical information that helps them efficiently and effectively assess, monitor to manage environmental disasters using decision support tools. These tools will build on state of the art quantification and visualization techniques, such as remote sensing information, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), simulation and prediction models, early warning systems, etc. The center is conceived as a central facility which will be designed, operated and managed by KISR in coordination with national authorities and decision makers of the country. Our vision is that by 2035 the center will be recognized as a leading national source of scientific advice on national risk management in Kuwait and build unity of effort among Kuwaiti’s institutions, government agencies, public and private organizations through provision and sharing of information. The project team now focuses on capacity building through upgrading some KISR facilities manpower development, build strong collaboration with international alliance.

Keywords: decision support, environment, hazard, Kuwait

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Authors: V. Thomas, O. Delaune, W. Hennig, S. Hoover

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Measurement of radioactive isotopes of atmospheric xenon is used to detect, locate and identify any confined nuclear tests as part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). In this context, the Alternative Energies and French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has developed a fixed device to continuously measure the concentration of these fission products, the SPALAX process. During its atmospheric transport, the radioactive xenon will undergo a significant dilution between the source point and the measurement station. Regarding the distance between fixed stations located all over the globe, the typical volume activities measured are near 1 mBq m⁻³. To avoid the constraints induced by atmospheric dilution, the development of a mobile detection system is in progress; this system will allow on-site measurements in order to confirm or infringe a suspicious measurement detected by a fixed station. Furthermore, this system will use beta/gamma coincidence measurement technique in order to drastically reduce environmental background (which masks such activities). The detector prototype consists of a gas cell surrounded by two large silicon wafers, coupled with two square NaI(Tl) detectors. The gas cell has a sample volume of 30 cm³ and the silicon wafers are 500 µm thick with an active surface area of 3600 mm². In order to minimize leakage current, each wafer has been segmented into four independent silicon pixels. This cell is sandwiched between two low background NaI(Tl) detectors (70x70x40 mm³ crystal). The expected Minimal Detectable Concentration (MDC) for each radio-xenon is in the order of 1-10 mBq m⁻³. Three 4-channels digital acquisition modules (Pixie-NET) are used to process all the signals. Time synchronization is ensured by a dedicated PTP-network, using the IEEE 1588 Precision Time Protocol. We would like to present this system from its simulation to the laboratory tests.

Keywords: beta/gamma coincidence technique, low level measurement, radioxenon, silicon pixels

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Melike Sultan Karasu Asnaz, Ayse Ozdogan Dolcek

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Crop drying, which aims to reduce the moisture content to a certain level, is a method used to extend the shelf life and prevent it from spoiling. One of the oldest food preservation techniques is open sunor shade drying. Even though this technique is the most affordable of all drying methods, there are some drawbacks such as contamination by insects, environmental pollution, windborne dust, and direct expose to weather conditions such as wind, rain, hail. However, solar dryers that provide a hygienic and controllable environment to preserve food and extend its shelf life have been developed and used to dry agricultural products. Thus, foods can be dried quickly without being affected by weather variables, and quality products can be obtained. This research is mainly devoted to investigating the modelling of drying kinetics of cantaloupe in a forced convection solar dryer. Mathematical models for the drying process should be defined to simulate the drying behavior of the foodstuff, which will greatly contribute to the development of solar dryer designs. Thus, drying experiments were conducted and replicated five times, and various data such as temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiation, drying air speed, and weight were instantly monitored and recorded. Moisture content of sliced and pretreated cantaloupe were converted into moisture ratio and then fitted against drying time for constructing drying curves. Then, 10 quasi-theoretical and empirical drying models were applied to find the best drying curve equation according to the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear optimization method. The best fitted mathematical drying model was selected according to the highest coefficient of determination (R²), and the mean square of the deviations (χ^²) and root mean square error (RMSE) criterial. The best fitted model was utilized to simulate a thin layer solar drying of cantaloupe, and the simulation results were compared with the experimental data for validation purposes.

Keywords: solar dryer, mathematical modelling, drying kinetics, cantaloupe drying

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Gao Youtao, Zhao Tanran, Jin Bingyu, Xu Bo

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Global navigation satellite system(GNSS) can deliver navigation information for spacecraft orbiting on low-Earth orbits and medium Earth orbits. However, the GNSS cannot navigate the spacecraft on high-Earth orbit or deep space probes effectively. With the deep space exploration becoming a hot spot of aerospace, the demand for a deep space satellite navigation system is becoming increasingly prominent. Many researchers discussed the feasibility and performance of a satellite navigation system on periodic orbits around the Earth-Moon libration points which can be called Lagrangian point satellite navigation system. Autonomous orbit determination (AOD) is an important performance for the Lagrangian point satellite navigation system. With this ability, the Lagrangian point satellite navigation system can reduce the dependency on ground stations. AOD also can greatly reduce total system cost and assure mission continuity. As the elliptical restricted three-body problem can describe the Earth-Moon system more accurately than the circular restricted three-body problem, we study the autonomous orbit determination of Lagrangian navigation constellation using only crosslink range based on elliptical restricted three body problem. Extended Kalman filter is used in the autonomous orbit determination. In order to compare the autonomous orbit determination results based on elliptical restricted three-body problem to the results of autonomous orbit determination based on circular restricted three-body problem, we give the autonomous orbit determination position errors of a navigation constellation include four satellites based on the circular restricted three-body problem. The simulation result shows that the Lagrangian navigation constellation can achieve long-term precise autonomous orbit determination using only crosslink range. In addition, the type of the libration point orbit will influence the autonomous orbit determination accuracy.

Keywords: extended Kalman filter, autonomous orbit determination, quasi-periodic orbit, navigation constellation

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Gregor Kosec

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Simple and robust numerical approach for solving flow problems is presented, where involved physical fields are represented through the local approximation functions, i.e., the considered field is approximated over a local support domain. The approximation functions are then used to evaluate the partial differential operators. The type of approximation, the size of support domain, and the type and number of basis function can be general. The solution procedure is formulated completely through local computational operations. Besides local numerical method also the pressure velocity is performed locally with retaining the correct temporal transient. The complete locality of the introduced numerical scheme has several beneficial effects. One of the most attractive is the simplicity since it could be understood as a generalized Finite Differences Method, however, much more powerful. Presented methodology offers many possibilities for treating challenging cases, e.g. nodal adaptivity to address regions with sharp discontinuities or p-adaptivity to treat obscure anomalies in physical field. The stability versus computation complexity and accuracy can be regulated by changing number of support nodes, etc. All these features can be controlled on the fly during the simulation. The presented methodology is relatively simple to understand and implement, which makes it potentially powerful tool for engineering simulations. Besides simplicity and straightforward implementation, there are many opportunities to fully exploit modern computer architectures through different parallel computing strategies. The performance of the method is presented on the lid driven cavity problem, backward facing step problem, de Vahl Davis natural convection test, extended also to low Prandtl fluid and Darcy porous flow. Results are presented in terms of velocity profiles, convergence plots, and stability analyses. Results of all cases are also compared against published data.

Keywords: fluid flow, meshless, low Pr problem, natural convection

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Rico Herrero

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The study looked into the different lived experiences of senior high school to work immersion and how they were able to cope up in the transition stage from being classroom students into immersion students in work immersion site. The participants of the study were the ten senior high school students from Punta Integrated School. Using interview guide questions, the researchers motivated the participants to reveal their thoughts, feelings, and experiences in the interviews via video recording. The researchers utilized the qualitative research design, but the approach used was grounded theory. The findings revealed the participants’ lived experiences on how to cope or overcome the transition stage during the work immersion program. They unanimously responded to the interview questions. And based on the themes that emerged from the testimonies of the Senior High School students, the classroom learners benefited a lot from authentic learning opportunity of immersion program. Work immersion provides the students the opportunity to learn and develop their skills/ competencies related to the field of specialization. The hands-on training provides them simulation of work. They realized that theoretical learning in school is not enough to be equipped to work. Immersion program also provides venue for values and standard transformation. Senior High School students felt a high demand of self-confidence at the beginning of their race. Good thing, self-esteem of an individual helps bring out one’s potential at its best. Students find it challenging to get along with people in all ages. But, the endeavour absolutely helps them to grow maturely. Participants also realized that it’s not easy to deal with time pressure. Hence, the immersion program taught them to learn about time management. Part of the best training is to expose the learners to the harsh reality. Despite of the things that the school had taught them, still, students realized that they are not yet ready to deal with the demands of work. Furthermore, they also found out that they need to develop an interpersonal skill to improve their human relationships.

Keywords: grounded theory, lived experiences, senior high school, work immersion

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

Abstract:

Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 205