Search results for: seasonal forecasting

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Pasquali Frederique, Manfreda Chiara, Crippa Cecilia, Indio Valentina, Ianieri Adriana, De Cesare Alessandra

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Microbiological hazards can be transmitted to humans through milk. In this study, we compared the microbiome composition and presence of foodborne pathogens in organic milk (n=6), organic hay milk (n=6), standard milk (n=6) and high-quality milk (n=6). The milk samples were collected during six samplings between December 2022 to January 2023 and between April and May 2024 to take into account seasonal variations. The 24 milk samples were submitted to DNA extraction and library preparation before shotgun sequencing on the Illumina HiScan™ SQ System platform. The total sequencing output was 600 GB. In all the milk samples, the phyla with the highest relative abundances were Pseudomonadota, Bacillota, Ascomycota, Actinomycetota and Apicomplexa, while the most represented genera were Pseudomonas, Streptococcus, Geotrichum, Acinetobacter and Babesia. The alpha and beta diversity indexes showed a clear separation between the microbiome of high-quality milk and those of the other milk types. Moreover, in the high-quality milk, the relative abundance of Staphylococcus (4.4%), Campylobacter (4.5%), Bacillus (2.5%), Enterococcus (2.4%), Klebsiella (1.3%) and Escherichia (0 .7%) was significantly higher in comparison to other types of milk. On the contrary, the relative abundance of Geotrichum (0.5%) was significantly lower. The microbiome results collected in this study showed significant differences in terms of the relative abundance of bacteria genera, including foodborne pathogen species. These results should be incorporated into risk assessment models tailored to different types of milk.

Keywords: raw milk, foodborne pathogens, microbiome, risk assessment

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Authors: Chaitanya Varma, Arpan Mehar

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The present study demonstrates the procedure to analyse speed data collected on various four-lane divided sections in India. Field data for the study was collected at different straight and curved sections on rural highways with the help of radar speed gun and video camera. The data collected at the sections were analysed and parameters pertain to speed distributions were estimated. The different statistical distribution was analysed on vehicle type speed data and for mixed traffic speed data. It was found that vehicle type speed data was either follows the normal distribution or Log-normal distribution, whereas the mixed traffic speed data follows more than one type of statistical distribution. The most common fit observed on mixed traffic speed data were Beta distribution and Weibull distribution. The separate operating speed model based on traffic and roadway geometric parameters were proposed in the present study. The operating speed model with traffic parameters and curve geometry parameters were established. Two different operating speed models were proposed with variables 1/R and Ln(R) and were found to be realistic with a different range of curve radius. The models developed in the present study are simple and realistic and can be used for forecasting operating speed on four-lane highways.

Keywords: highway, mixed traffic flow, modeling, operating speed

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Authors: Auwal Mustapha Imam

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The aim of the energy management system is to monitor and control utilization, access, optimize and manage energy availability. This can be realized through real-time analyses and energy sources and loads data control in a predictive way. Smart-home monitoring and control provide convenience and cost savings by controlling appliances, lights, thermostats and other loads. There may be different categories of loads in the various homes, and the homeowner may wish to control access to solar-generated energy to protect the storage from draining completely. Controlling the power system operation by managing the converter output power and controlling how it feeds the appliances will satisfy the residential load demand. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides an attractive technological platform to connect the two and make home automation and domestic energy utilization easier and more attractive. This paper presents the use of IoT-based control topology to monitor and control power distribution and consumption by DC loads connected to single-input multiple outputs (SIMO) DC-DC converter, thereby reducing leakages, enhancing performance and reducing human efforts. A SIMO converter was first developed and integrated with the IoT/Raspberry Pi control topology, which enables the user to monitor and control power scheduling and load forecasting via an Android app.

Keywords: flyback, converter, DC-DC, photovoltaic, SIMO

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Authors: Rachida Ouysse

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This paper proposes a constrained principal components (CnPC) estimator for efficient estimation of large-dimensional factor models when errors are cross sectionally correlated and the number of cross-sections (N) may be larger than the number of observations (T). Although principal components (PC) method is consistent for any path of the panel dimensions, it is inefficient as the errors are treated to be homoskedastic and uncorrelated. The new CnPC exploits the assumption of bounded cross-sectional dependence, which defines Chamberlain and Rothschild’s (1983) approximate factor structure, as an explicit constraint and solves a constrained PC problem. The CnPC method is computationally equivalent to the PC method applied to a regularized form of the data covariance matrix. Unlike maximum likelihood type methods, the CnPC method does not require inverting a large covariance matrix and thus is valid for panels with N ≥ T. The paper derives a convergence rate and an asymptotic normality result for the CnPC estimators of the common factors. We provide feasible estimators and show in a simulation study that they are more accurate than the PC estimator, especially for panels with N larger than T, and the generalized PC type estimators, especially for panels with N almost as large as T.

Keywords: high dimensionality, unknown factors, principal components, cross-sectional correlation, shrinkage regression, regularization, pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting

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Authors: Anton Golubkov, Gleb Ermachkov, Aleksandr Smerdin, Oleg Sidorov, Victor Philippov

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Current collection quality is one of the limiting factors when increasing trains movement speed in the rail sector. With the movement speed growth, the impact forces on the current collector from the rolling stock and the aerodynamic influence increase, which leads to the spread in the contact pressure values, separation of the current collector head from the contact wire, contact arcing and excessive wear of the contact elements. The upcoming trend in resolving this issue is the use of the automatic control systems providing stabilization of the contact pressure value. The present paper considers the features of the contemporary automatic control systems of the current collector’s pressure; their major disadvantages have been stated. A scheme of current collector pressure automatic control has been proposed, distinguished by a proactive influence on undesirable effects. A mathematical model of contact strips wearing has been presented, obtained in accordance with the provisions of the central composition rotatable design program. The analysis of the obtained dependencies has been carried out. The procedures for determining the optimal current collector pressure on the contact wire and the pressure control principle in the pneumatic drive have been described.

Keywords: contact strip, current collector, high-speed running, program control, wear

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Authors: Sabita Subedi, Bhojan Dhakal, Shankar Raj Pant, Naba Raj Devkota

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An assessment was made about the available feed resources, its utilization pattern, specifically, roughage and concentrate, produced from the Manaslu Conservation Area (MCA) of Nepal to formulate the appropriate strategies in satisfying the annual dietary requirements of the livestock covering its present production and management scenarios. A comparative study was done by employing a purposively conducted survey to deduct the distribution of forage sources in the area. Findings revealed that natural vegetation, seasonally available crop residues, and dried grasses were major feed resources, whereas their contribution to the total supply varied significantly (p < 0.01). The amount of feed obtained from various sources was calculated by standard conversion and using primary household data. Findings revealed that farmers practice significantly higher (p < 0.01) number of grazing days and hours per day for large ruminants such as Yak and Chauries as compared to small ruminants such as goats and sheep. The findings also indicated seasonal variations of feed supply, whereas January to March is the period of short supply (p < 0.01). It was relatively in good supply from June to September though average roughage and crude protein supplement for the animals was far below than optimum requirements. These scenarios suggest the need for immediate attention to improve the range productivity in the MCA as the deteriorating situations of the rangelands may raise questions on the sustainability of livestock herders.

Keywords: altitude, carrying capacity, dietary requirement, feed resources, rangeland, ruminant

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Authors: Ankush Verma, Rohit Bishist

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The present investigation was carried out at different locations of Shimla and Kinnaur district and nutrient analysis was done in the laboratory of Department of Silviculture and Agroforestry, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Distt. Solan, Himachal Pradesh during 2019-2020 with the objectives to study the seasonal variation in the nutritive value of different Quercus species and to study the farmers’ preference rating of fodder tress species. From each location leaf samples were collected at 3 months interval from each Quercus spp. The findings of the present study revealed that the nutritional traits of leaves of different Quercus species varied among different seasons throughout the year. The dry matter (61.12 to 64.99%), ether extract (4.07 to 4.42%), crude fibre (34.38 to 37.85%), neutral detergent fibre (57.70 to 61.54%), acid detergent fibre (44.64 to 48.51%), total ash (3.57 to 3.91%), acid insoluble ash (44.64 to 48.51%) and calcium (1.31 to 1.53%) increased with the maturity in the leaves of different Quercus species. While, crude protein (9.10 to 10.61%), nitrogen free extract (44.73 to 47.41%), organic matter (96.09 to 96.43%), and phosphorus (0.16 to 0.31%) decreased with the advancing maturity in the leaves of different Quercus species. Maximum mean values for dry matter (65.05%), ether extract (4.45%), crude fibre (40.82%), neutral detergent fibre (61.48%), acid detergent fibre (48.44%), and organic matter (96.67%) among different Quercus species were recorded in Quercus ilex, while, Maximum mean values for crude protein (10.54%), nitrogen free extract (50.53%), total ash (4.05%), acid insoluble ash (0.59%), calcium (1.61%) and phosphorus (0.40%) were recorded in Quercus leucotrichophora.

Keywords: nutritional evaluation, fodder species, crude protein, carbohydrates

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Shu Tao

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Based on a global fuel consumption data product (PKU-FUEL-2007) compiled recently and a series of databases for emission factors of various sources, global emission inventories of a number of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, including CO2, CO, SO2, NOx, primary particulate matter (total, PM 10, and PM 2.5), black carbon, organic carbon, mercury, volatile organic carbons, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from combustion sources have been developed. The inventories feather high spatial and sectorial resolutions. The spatial resolution of the inventories are 0.1 by 0.1 degree, based on a sub-national disaggregation approach to reduce spatial bias due to uneven distribution of per person fuel consumption within countries. The finely resolved inventories provide critical information for chemical transport modeling and exposure modeling. Emissions from more than 60 sources in energy, industry, agriculture, residential, transportation, and wildfire sectors were quantified in this study. With the detailed sectorial information, the inventories become an important tool for policy makers. For residential sector, a set of models were developed to simulate temporal variation of fuel consumption, consequently pollutant emissions. The models can be used to characterize seasonal as well as inter-annual variations in the emissions in history and to predict future changes. The models can even be used to quantify net change of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions due to climate change. The inventories has been used for model ambient air quality, population exposure, and even health effects. A few examples of the applications are discussed.

Keywords: air pollutants, combustion, emission inventory, sectorial information

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Authors: France Phiri, Arnold Kanengoni, Dawood Hattas, Khanyisile Mbatha

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A study was carried out to determine seasonal changes in fiber composition and condensed tannin (CT) concentrations in Rhus lancea and Celtis africana and their effects on feed intake and blood metabolites in mixed-feeders. Rhus lancea and C. africana were analysed for dry matter (DM), acid detergent lignin (ADL), acid detergent fiber (ADF), neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and CT concentrations over four seasons; early wet (EWS), late wet (LWS), early dry (EDS) and late dry (LDS). Twelve indigenous male goats were kept in metabolic crates for periods of 21 days per season and fed one of two diet combinations; the test diet comprised R. lancea and C. africana (denoted as BROWSE) and the lucerne diet comprised lucerne (Medicago sativa and concentrates (CON). Feed intake, body weight and blood metabolites were determined in all goats over each study period. Goats fed BROWSE in the EDS, LDS and LWS lost weight while goats fed CON gained weight (P < 0.05). Goats fed CON had higher urea, alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyl transferase concentrations than those fed BROWSE (P < 0.05). Creatinine and cholesterol concentrations in all goats across LWS, EDS and LDS were lower than the normal range, while total protein and globulin concentrations were higher. The goats fed BROWSE had higher creatinine concentrations (P < 0.05) than those fed CON. Cholesterol concentrations were higher (P < 0.05) in goats fed BROWSE than in those on CON fed. It was concluded that goats fed BROWSE lost weight, indicating insufficient nutrients for maintenance requirements.

Keywords: fiber, maintenance, condense tannins, blood metabolites

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Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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Authors: Wolfram Jahn, Jose Manuel Munita

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While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of fire scenarios are commonly used in the design of buildings, less attention has been given to the use of CFD simulations as an operational tool for the fire services. The reason of this lack of attention lies mainly in the fact that CFD simulations typically take large periods of time to complete, and their results would thus not be available in time to be of use during an emergency. Firefighters often face uncertain conditions when entering a building to attack a fire. They would greatly benefit from a technology based on predictive fire simulations, able to assist their decision-making process. The principal constraint to faster CFD simulations is the fine grid necessary to solve accurately the physical processes that govern a fire. This paper explores the possibility of overcoming this constraint and using coarse grid CFD simulations for fire scenarios, and proposes a methodology to use the simulation results in a meaningful way that can be used by the fire fighters during an emergency. Data from real scale compartment fire tests were used to compare CFD fire models with different grid arrangements, and empirical correlations were obtained to interpolate data points into the grids. The results show that the strongly predominant effect of the heat release rate of the fire on the fluid dynamics allows for the use of coarse grids with relatively low overall impact of simulation results. Simulations with an acceptable level of accuracy could be run in real time, thus making them useful as a forecasting tool for emergency response purposes.

Keywords: CFD, fire simulations, emergency response, forecast

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Authors: Gayathri Sadanala, Shibam Pokhrel, Owen Murphy

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In the ever-evolving landscape of education, Virtual Reality (VR) environments offer a promising avenue for enhancing student engagement and learning experiences. However, understanding and predicting student behavior within these immersive settings remain challenging tasks. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the predictive modeling of student behavior in VR using machine learning techniques. We introduce a rich data set capturing student interactions, movements, and progress within a VR orientation program. The dataset is divided into training and testing sets, allowing us to develop and evaluate predictive models for various aspects of student behavior, including engagement levels, task completion, and performance. Our machine learning approach leverages a combination of feature engineering and model selection to reveal hidden patterns in the data. We employ regression and classification models to predict student outcomes, and the results showcase promising accuracy in forecasting behavior within VR environments. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical implications of our predictive models for personalized VR-based learning experiences and early intervention strategies. By uncovering the intricate relationship between student behavior and VR interactions, we provide valuable insights for educators, designers, and developers seeking to optimize virtual learning environments.

Keywords: interaction, machine learning, predictive modeling, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang

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Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.

Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid

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Authors: Teklebrhan Kidane

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The aim of this study is to investigate the species diversity and relative abundance of migratory waterbirds in Abijata Lake, an Important Bird Area and potential Ramsar site located in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. The study was carried out, using line transect method along the shoreline and open area of the Lake. The data was analyzed with different diversity indices; t-Test and descriptive statistics. Thirty-two migratory waterbird species grouped into twelve families consisting of globally threatened birds were identified and recorded. Family Scolopacidae (12 species) had the highest number of species. The lowest number of species was observed under the families Ciconidae, Accipitridae, Laridae and Falconidae with one species each. The recorded bird species comprised 19 Palearctic, 5 Intra-African, 2 local migrants as well as 6 resident Palearctic migratory waterbird species. The dry season had higher species diversity (H'=1.01) compared to the wet season (H'=0.76). The highest and lowest diversity of migratory waterbirds were recorded during January (H'= 1.28) and June (H'= 0.52), respectively. However, the highest evenness (E) of bird species was recorded during wet season (E=0.21) and lower during the dry season (E=0.09). The computed seasonal effect reveals that there is significant effect of seasons on species diversity (t=2.80, P < 0.05), but the effect of seasons on individuals of migratory bird species was not significant (t=1.42, P > 0.05). Even though Lake Abijata is the sanctuary of several migratory waterbirds, anthropogenic activities are rigorously threatening their survival. Therefore, it needs an urgent conservation concern.

Keywords: migration, important bird area, species diversity, wetland birds

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Authors: Adiaha A. A. Ugwumba, Femi V. Oluwale

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Sizes at maturity (Lₘ₅₀), fecundity, sex ratio, and gonadosomatic indices (GSI) of the reticulate knife fish, Papyrocranus afer, collected from Lekki Lagoon, were investigated. A Total of 1154 specimens with standard lengths of 5.2-75.9 cm (mean = 34.86±17.2cm) and body weight of 7.9-1, 958.8g (mean = 249.12±28.56g) were collected by means of artisanal passive and active gears (traps, long lines, and nets) and examined. Sexes of fish specimens were determined macroscopically and microscopically after dissection. The length at which 50% of the fish population reached sexual maturity (Lₘ₅₀) was considered as length at sexual maturity. Fecundity was determined by total counts of eggs; sex ratio by the proportion of males to females, while GSI was determined as gonad weight expressed as a percentage of total body weight. Results showed that the most frequently caught fish was 34.5cm long, while the sizes at maturity were 49.1cm (males) and 53.4cm (females). Matured specimens had characteristic urinogenital papillae prominent in males but vestigial in females. Sex ratio (1: 0.6; Male: female) was significantly different (X² (1) = 32.21, p < 0.0001). Fecundity was low (mean 49 ± 17 eggs for a fish of 52.86 ±7.53cm); it increased with fish size (r = 0.71). Higher GSI during the rainy season with a peak in July (female: 0.44 ± 0.14 %; male: 0.22 ± 0.01 %) indicated seasonal/annual spawning. Low fecundity and annual spawning underlined the need for sustainable management of this species in Lekki Lagoon.

Keywords: breeding season, fecundity, gonad maturity, Lekki lagoon, Papyrocranus afer, sex ratio

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Authors: Alamrew Eyayu

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Riverine ecosystems are highly exposed to different forms of human activities, and different water features can affect fish distribution in such habitats. Tributaries of the Abbay and Tekeze Basins are supporting all life-requesting activities in Ethiopia. Fisheries of these habitats are also the mainstay of livelihoods. However, brutal human activities are affecting these ecosystems and the fish therein. This study was thus undertaken to examine fish distribution and community structure in relation to water parameters in Ayima, Gelegu and Shinfa Rivers. 2719 fish specimens identified into 43 species were sampled using gillnets, cast nets and electro-fishing on a seasonal campaign. Based on frequency of occurrence (%FO), 5 species fell in the ‘euconstant occurrence’ category or their FO was ≥75%, while many species were in the ‘constant occurrence’ category. Among others, site depth, total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and river channel diameter were key environmental factors determining fish community structure. Similarity percentage produced an overall average Bray-Curtis dissimilarity of 60.8% between the fish communities of the three rivers. The final model accounted for 77.2% of the total variance in fish composition, and all canonical axes were significant (Monte Carlo test 499, p =0.002). Generally, this study was conducted in areas where no ecological studies are undertaken, and the results obtained from this study could be important for the sustainable utilization of Ethiopian fisheries.

Keywords: fish biology, fisheries socioeconomics, aquatic biodiversity, fisheries management

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Authors: Getachew Mekaa, Bezatu Mengisteb, Tena Alamirewc

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Ashebeka River is the main source of drinking water supply for Assela City and its surrounding inhabitants. Apart from seasonal water reliability disruption, the cost of treating water downstream of the river has been increasing over time due to increased pollutants and suspended sediments. Therefore, this research aimed to identify geo-location and prioritize suspended sediment sources in the Ashebeka River catchment using sediment fingerprinting. We collected 58 composite soil samples and a river water sample for suspended sediment samples from the outlet, which were then filtered using Whatman filter paper. The samples were quantified for geochemical tracers with multi-element capability, and inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Tracers with significant p-value and that passed the Kruskal-Wallis (KW) test were analyzed for stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA). The DFA results revealed tracers with good discrimination were subsequently used for the mixed model analysis. The relative significant sediment source contributions from sub-catchments (km2): 3, 4, 1, and 2 were estimated as 49.31% (8), 26.71% (5), 23.65% (5.6), and 0.33% (28.4) respectively. The findings of this study will help the water utilities to prioritize areas of intervention, and the approach used could be followed for catchment prioritization in water safety plan development. Moreover, the findings of this research shed light on the integration of sediment fingerprinting into water safety plans to ensure the reliability of drinking water supplies.

Keywords: disruption of drinking water reliability, ashebeka river catchment, sediment fingerprinting, sediment source contribution, mixed model

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Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Afzal, Muhammad Arslan, Mirza Muhammad Waqar

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Snow constitutes an important component of the cryosphere, characterized by high temporal and spatial variability. Because of the contribution of snow melt to water availability, snow is an important focus for research on climate change and adaptation. MODIS satellite data have been used to identify spatial-temporal trends in snow cover in the upper Indus basin. For this research MODIS satellite 8 day composite data of medium resolution (250m) have been analysed from 2001-2005.Pixel based supervised classification have been performed and extent of snow have been calculated of all the images. Results show large variation in snow cover between years while an increasing trend from west to east is observed. Temperature data for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analysed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 2001-2005 and calibrated with the results acquired by the research. From the analysis it is concluded that there are indications that regional warming is one of the factor that is affecting the hydrology of the upper Indus basin due to accelerated glacial melting during the simulation period, stream flow in the upper Indus basin can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. This conclusion is also supported by the research of ICIMOD in which there is an observation that the average annual precipitation over a five year period is less than the observed stream flow and supported by positive temperature trends in all seasons.

Keywords: indus basin, MODIS, remote sensing, snow cover

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Hasan Kalyoncu, Ayşe Güneş

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This study was carried on 12 determined stations, on Alara and Karpuz Streams, between January and November 2014. Seasonal samples were taken from the stations to analyze physicochemical parameters and Plecoptera Fauna in the water. The correlation between identified taxa and physicochemical data were tried to determine. As the result of the study, 2088 individuals from Plecoptera fauna were examined, 3 genera and 13 species were identified. The taxa of Brachyptera risi, Capnia bifrons, Dinocras cephalotes, Diura bicaudata, Isogenus nebecula, Isogenus sp., Isoperla grammatica, Leuctra hippopus, Leuctra inermis, Leuctra moselyi, Leuctra sp., Nemoura sp., Perla bipunctata, Perla marginata, Protonemura meyeri and Rhabdiopteryx acuminata were determined. In Alara Stream, the dominant species were; Isogenus nebecula at stations I and IV, Leuctra moselyi at station II, Leuctra hippopus at stations III, V and VI. In Karpuz Stream, Brachyptera risi was the dominant species in all stations. While Leuctra hippopus was the dominant taxon in Alara Stream, in Karpuz Stream it was Brachyptera risi. The highest diversity value was at station III and the lowest was at station VI in Alara Stream and the lowest diversity value was at station VI, while the highest was at station I in Karpuz Stream. In Alara Stream, the most similar stations were I and III, while in Karpuz Stream the highest similarity was determined between stations I and II. As for the evaluation result, the water quality of Alara and Karpuz Streams were determined as at oligosaprobic level.

Keywords: Alara stream, Karpuz stream, plecoptera, water quality

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Authors: Evgeniia V. Mekhonoshina, Vladimir Ya. Modorskii, Vasilii Yu. Petrov

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At present, vibrations of rotors of gas transmittal unit evade sustainable forecasting. This paper describes elastic oscillation modes in resilient supports and rotor impellers modeled during computational experiments with regard to interference in the system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor. Verification of aeroelastic approach was done on model problem of interaction between supersonic jet in shock tube with deformed plate. ANSYS 15.0 engineering analysis system was used as a modeling tool of numerical simulation in this paper. Finite volume method for gas dynamics and finite elements method for assessment of the strain stress state (SSS) components were used as research methods. Rotation speed and material’s elasticity modulus varied during calculations, and SSS components and gas-dynamic parameters in the dynamic system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor were evaluated. The analysis of time dependence demonstrated that gas-dynamic parameters near the rotor blades oscillate at 200 Hz, and SSS parameters at the upper blade edge oscillate four times higher, i.e. with blade frequency. It has been detected that vibration amplitudes correction in the test points at magnetic bearings by aeroelasticity may correspond up to 50%, and about -π/4 for phases.

Keywords: Centrifugal compressor, aeroelasticity, interdisciplinary calculation, oscillation phase displacement, vibration, nonstationarity

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Authors: Ankita Pathak, Ashok Munjal, Ravi Parkash

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Plastic responses to multiple environmental stressors in wet or dry seasonal populations of tropical Drosophila species have received less attention. We tested plastic effects of heat hardening, acclimation to drought or starvation; and changes in trehalose, proline and body lipids in D. ananassae flies reared under wet or dry season specific conditions. Wet season flies revealed significant increase in heat knockdown, starvation resistance and body lipids after heat hardening. However, accumulation of proline was observed only after desiccation acclimation of dry season flies while wet season flies elicited no proline but trehalose only. Therefore, drought-induced proline can be a marker metabolite for dry season flies. Further, partial utilization of proline and trehalose under heat hardening reflects their possible thermoprotective effects. Heat hardening elicited cross-protection to starvation stress. Stressor-specific accumulation or utilization, as well as rates of metabolic change for each energy metabolite, were significantly higher in wet season flies than dry season flies. Energy metabolite changes due to inter-related stressors (heat vs. desiccation or starvation) resulted in possible maintenance of energetic homeostasis in wet or dry season flies. Thus, low or high humidity induced plastic changes in energy metabolites can provide cross-protection to seasonally varying climatic stressors.

Keywords: wet-dry seasons, plastic changes, stress related traits, energy metabolites, cross protection

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Authors: Mojibul Sajjad, Mohammad G. Rasul, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

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The rate of natural gas dissociation from the Coal Matrix depends on depressurization of reservoir through removing of the cleat water from the coal seam. These waters are similar to brine and aged of long years. For improving the connectivity through fracking /fracturing, high pressure liquids are pumped off inside the coal body. A significant quantity of accumulated water, a combined mixture of cleat water and fracking fluids (back flow water) is pumped out through gas well. In Queensland Coal Seam Gas industry is in booming state and estimated of 30,000 wells would be active for CSG production forecasting life span of 30 years. Integrated water management along with water softening programs is practiced for subsequent treatment and later on discharge to nearby surface water catchment. Water treatment is an important part of the CSG industry. A case study on a CSG site and review on the test results are discussed for assessing the Standards & Practices for management of CSG by-product water and their subsequent disposal activities. This study was directed toward (i) water management and softening process in Spring Gully Mine field, (ii) Comparative analysis on experimental study and standards and (iii) Disposal of the treated water. This study also aimed for alternative usages and their impact on vegetation, living species as well as long term effects.

Keywords: coal seam gas (CSG), cleat water, hydro-fracking, product water

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Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

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There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

Abstract:

The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Stephanie Fabris Russo, Daiane Costa Guimarães, Jonas Pedro Fabris, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo, José Augusto Andrade Filho

Abstract:

Among renewable energy sources, solar energy is the one that has stood out. Solar radiation can be used as a thermal energy source and can also be converted into electricity by means of effects on certain materials, such as thermoelectric and photovoltaic panels. These panels are often used to generate energy in homes, buildings, arenas, etc., and have low pollution emissions. Thus, a technological prospecting was performed to find patents related to the use of photovoltaic plates in urban residences. The patent search was based on ESPACENET, associating the keywords photovoltaic and home, where we found 136 patent documents in the period of 1994-2015 in the fields title and abstract. Note that the years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had the highest number of applicants, with respectively, 11, 13, 23, 29, 15 and 21. Regarding the country that deposited about this technology, it is clear that China leads with 67 patent deposits, followed by Japan with 38 patents applications. It is important to note that most depositors, 50% are companies, 44% are individual inventors and only 6% are universities. On the International Patent classification (IPC) codes, we noted that the most present classification in results was H02J3/38, which represents provisions in parallel to feed a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers. Among all categories, there is the H session, which means Electricity, with 70% of the patents.

Keywords: photovoltaic, urban residences, technology forecasting, prospecting

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Authors: Rashi Mahato

Abstract:

Talent management represents an organization’s effort to attract, develop and retain highly skilled and valuable employees. The goal is to have people with capabilities and commitment needed for current and future organizational success. The organizational talent pool is its managerial talent referred to as leadership pipeline. It is managed through various systems and processes to help the organization source, reward, evaluate, develop and move employees into various functions and roles. The pipeline bends, turns, and sometimes breaks as organizations identify who is 'ready now' and who is 'on track' for larger leadership roles. From this perspective, talent management designs structured approach and a robust mechanism for high potential employees to meet organization’s needs. The paper attempts to provide a roadmap and a structured approach towards building a high performing organization through well-defined career path. Managers want career paths to be defined, so that an adequate number of individuals may be identified and prepared to fill future vacancies. Once career progression patterns are identified, more systematic forecasting of talent requirements is possible. For the development of senior management talent or leadership team, career paths are needed as guidelines for talent management across functional and organizational lines. Career path is one of the important tools for talent management and aligning talent with business strategy. This paper briefly describes the approach for career path and the concept of

Keywords: career path, career path framework, lateral movement, talent management

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Authors: Khizar Samiullah Samiullah, Riffat Yasin, Khurrum Feroz, Omer Draz, Memmona Nazish

Abstract:

New fossil remains of artiodactyl have been recovered from three Late Miocene localities, Lava, Dhok Bun Ameer Khatoon and Hasnoot. These localities belong to lower and middle Siwalik Hills of Pakistan, the Chinji and Dhok Pathan Formation respectively and are remarkably rich in fossils of artiodactyl. The fauna mainly comprises various families of order Artiodactyla; Cervidae, Equidea, Proboscidea, Giraffidea, Rhinocerotidae, Tragulidea, Suidae and Primates. In Chinji Formation Lava and Dhok Bun Ameer Khatoon are located in district Chakwal while in Upper Dhok Pathan Formation the best fossils exposure site is Hasnoot which is located in District Jhelum, Punjab, Pakistan. Specimens described and discussed here include right and left maxilla, isolated upper premolars and molars which have been collected during extensive fieldwork. After morphological and comparative analysis the collection is attributed to Giraffokeryx, Giraffa, Listriodon, Dorcatherium, Selenoportax and Pachyportax. In this study evolutionary status, taxonomy and biogeographical distribution as well as the relationship of different Artiodactyls have been discussed comprehensively. The Palaeoenvironmental studies reveal the persistence of mosaics of diverse habitats ranging from tropical evergreen forest to subtropical ones, closed seasonal woodlands to wooded savannas during the deposition of these outcrops.

Keywords: Artiodactyla, fossil dentition, late Miocene, lower and middle Siwaliks

Procedia PDF Downloads 259