Search results for: information system risk

Authors: Ali Ganoun, Wesam Algablawi, Wasim BenAnaif

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Video based traffic surveillance based on License Plate Recognition (LPR) system is an essential part for any intelligent traffic management system. The LPR system utilizes computer vision and pattern recognition technologies to obtain traffic and road information by detecting and recognizing vehicles based on their license plates. Generally, the video based LPR system is a challenging area of research due to the variety of environmental conditions. The LPR systems used in a wide range of commercial applications such as collision warning systems, finding stolen cars, controlling access to car parks and automatic congestion charge systems. This paper presents an automatic LPR system of Libyan license plate. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated with three video sequences.

Keywords: license plate recognition, localization, segmentation, recognition

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Authors: Azar Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza Naserkhaki

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The application of the IT systems for collecting and analyzing the data can have a significant effect on the performance of any company. In recent decade, different advancements and achievements in the field of information technology have changed the industry compared to the previous decade. The adoption and application of the information technology are one of the ways to achieve a distinctive competitive personality to the companies and their supply chain. The acceptance of the IT and its proper implementation cam reinforce and improve the cooperation between different parts of the supply chain by rapid transfer and distribution of the precise information and the application of the informational systems, leading to the increase in the supply chain efficiency. The main objective of this research is to study the effects and applications of the information technology on and in the supply chain management and to introduce the effective factors on the acceptance of information technology in the companies. Moreover, in order to understand the subject, we will investigate the role and importance of the information and electronic commerce in the supply chain and the characteristics of the supply chain based on the information flow approach.

Keywords: electronic commerce, industry, information technology, management, supply chain, system

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Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka

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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.

Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing

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Authors: Aniket Tiwari, Ameya London

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Web-based student attendance management system is required to assist the faculty and the lecturer for the time-consuming process. For this purpose, GSM/GPRS (Global System for Mobile Communication/General Packet Radio Service) based student’s attendance management system using RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) is a much convenient method to take the attendance. Student is provided with the RFID tags. When student comes near to the reader, it will sense the respective student and update attendance. The whole process is controlled using the microcontroller. The main advantage of this system is that it reduced the complexity comparison to student attendance system using RF technology. This system requires only one microcontroller for the operation, it is real time process. This paper reviews some of these monitoring systems and proposes a GPRS based student attendance system. The system can be easily accessed by the lecturers via the web and most importantly, the reports can be generated in real-time processing, thus, provides valuable information about the students’ commitments in attending the classes.

Keywords: RFID reader, RFID tags, student, attendance

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Authors: Matloub Hussaina

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This paper investigates the impact of information sharing and capacity constraints on backlog bullwhip effect of Automatic Pipe Line Inventory and Order Based Production Control System (APIOBPCS). System dynamic simulation using iThink Software has been applied. It has been found that smooth ordering by Tier 1 can be achieved when Tier 1 has medium capacity constraints. Simulation experiments also show that information sharing helps to reduce 50% of backlog bullwhip effect in capacitated supply chains. This knowledge is of value per se, giving supply chain operations managers and designers a practical way in to controlling the backlog bullwhip effect. Future work should investigate the total cost implications of capacity constraints and safety stocks in multi-echelon supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain dynamics, information sharing, capacity constraints, simulation, APIOBPCS

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Authors: Sai Rajeev Reddy, Ishita Roy, M. Anji Reddy

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The paper describes the importance of preventive measures and immediate Emergency logistics during accidents and unfortunate Disasters for the Hyderabad Metro Rails in their various stages of construction. This is the need of the modern generation where accidents, explosions, attacks and sudden crisis are frequent casualties which take huge tolls of life in the present world. The paper utilizes the workflow and application of Geographical information System (GIS) to provide information about problems and crisis structures for efficient Metro Transportation in the city. The study analyzes the difficulties and problems which cause accidents during operation and maintenance stages of the Metro Rail. The paper focuses upon the intermediate and firsthand information of Crisis with the help of GIS technology to share Disaster data for effective measures by the Cyber Police stations, Emergency Responders, Hospitals and First Aid Centre to act immediately and save lives. The results and conclusions have nevertheless proved very informative and useful for the safety board authorities of the Hyderabad Metro Rail. The operation and Maintenance are integral stages in the development of any Multipurpose transportation Projects and are usually prone to various Disasters and tragedies. Hence, the GIS technologies help in distribution of information among the masses with the web Technologies and advanced software developed to prevent and manage crisis widely and in a cost-benefits manner.

Keywords: Geographical Information System, emergency assessment, accident zones, surveillance

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Authors: Wasmi Woishi

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Smart card technology is a secure and safe technology that is expanding its capabilities day by day in terms of holding important information without alteration. It is readily available, and its ease of portability makes it more efficient in terms of its usage. The smart card is in use by many industries such as financial, insurance, governmental industries, personal identification, to name a few. Smart card technology is popular for its wide familiarity, adaptability, accessibility, benefits, and portability. This research aims to find out the perception toward the application of a cloud-based healthcare system through a smart card in KSA. The research has compiled the countries using a smart card or smart healthcare card and indicated the potential benefits of implementing smart healthcare cards. 120 participants from Riyadh city were surveyed by the means of a closed-ended questionnaire. Data were analyzed through SPSS. This research extends the research body in the healthcare system. Empirical evidence regarding smart healthcare cards is scarce and hence undertaken in this study. The study provides a useful insight into collecting, storing, analyzing, manipulating, and accessibility of medical information regarding smart healthcare cards. Research findings can help achieve KSA's Vision 2030 goals in terms of the digitalization of healthcare systems in improving its efficiency and effectiveness in storing and accessing healthcare data.

Keywords: smart card technology, healthcare using smart cards, smart healthcare cards, KSA healthcare information system, cloud-based healthcare cards

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Abhishek Saha, Serene Tay, Gerard Pijcke

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The availability of high-resolution topography and rainfall information in urban areas has made it necessary to revise modeling approaches used for simulating flood risk assessments. Lidar derived elevation models that have 1m or lower resolutions are becoming widely accessible. The classical approaches of 1D-2D flow models where channel flow is simulated and coupled with a coarse resolution 2D overland flow models may not fully utilize the information provided by high-resolution data. In this context, a study was undertaken to compare three different modeling approaches to simulate flooding in an urban area. The first model used is the base model used is Sobek, which uses 1D model formulation together with hydrologic boundary conditions and couples with an overland flow model in 2D. The second model uses a full 2D model for the entire area with shallow water equations at the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM). These models are compared against another shallow water equation solver in 2D, which uses a subgrid method for grid refinement. These models are simulated for different horizontal resolutions of DEM varying between 1m to 5m. The results show a significant difference in inundation extents and water levels for different DEMs. They are also sensitive to the different numerical models with the same physical parameters, such as friction. The study shows the importance of having reliable field observations of inundation extents and levels before a choice of model and data can be made for spatial flood risk assessments.

Keywords: flooding, DEM, shallow water equations, subgrid

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Y. Kamarulzaman, A. Madun, F. D. Yusop, N. Abdullah, N. K. Hoong

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In 2011, the Malaysian Government has initiated a nationwide project called 1BestariNet which will adopt the using of technology in teaching and learning, resulting in the construction of telecommunication towers inside the public schools’ premise. Using qualitative approach, this study investigated public perception of risks associated with the project, particularly the telecommunication towers. Data collection involved observation and in-depth interviews with 22 individuals consist of a segment of public that was anxious about the risks of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF) which include two employees of telecommunication companies (telcos) and five employees of Government agencies. Observation of the location of the towers at 10 public schools, a public forum, and media reports provide valuable information in our analysis. The study finds that the main concern is related to the health risks. This study also shows that it is not easy for the Government to manage public perception mainly because it involves public trust. We find that risk perception is related with public trust, as well as the perceived benefits and level of knowledge. Efficient communication and continuous engagement with the local communities help to build and maintain public trust, reduce public fear and anxiety, hence mitigating the risk perception among the public.

Keywords: risk perception, risk communication, trust, telecommunication tower, radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF)

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Authors: Pinisetti Swami Sairam, Meera C. S.

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Marker pens are widely used all over the world, mainly in educational institutions due to their neat, accurate and easily erasable nature. But refilling the ink in these pens is a tedious and time consuming job. Besides, it requires careful handling of the pens and ink bottle. A fully automated marker filling system is a solution developed to overcome this problem. The system comprises of pneumatics and electronics modules as well as PLC control. The system design is done in such a way that the empty markers are dumped in a marker container which then sent through different modules of the system in order to refill it automatically. The filled markers are then collected in a marker container. Refilling of ink takes place in different stages inside the system. An ink detecting system detects the colour of the marker which is to be filled and then refilling is done. The processes like capping and uncapping of the cap as well as screwing and unscrewing of the tip are done with the help of robotic arm and gripper. We make use of pneumatics in this system in order to get the precision while performing the capping, screwing, and refilling operations. Thus with the help of this system we can achieve cleanliness, accuracy, effective and time saving in the process of filling a marker.

Keywords: automated system, market filling, information technology, control and automation

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Shreyansh Jain Jeetmal, Shobith P. Chadaga, Shreyas H. Srinivas

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Internet of Things (IoT) is seen as the next major step in the ongoing revolution in the Information Age. It is predicted that in the near future billions of embedded devices will be communicating with each other to perform a plethora of tasks with or without human intervention. One of the major ongoing hotbed of research activity in IoT is Human Computer Interaction (HCI). HCI is used to facilitate communication between an intelligent system and a user. An intelligent system typically comprises of a system consisting of various sensors, actuators and embedded controllers which communicate with each other to monitor data collected from the environment. Communication by the user to the system is typically done using voice. One of the major ongoing applications of HCI is in home automation as a personal assistant. The prime objective of our project is to implement a use case of HCI for home automation. Our system is designed to detect and recognize the users and personalize the appliances in the house according to their individual preferences. Our HCI system is also capable of speaking with the user when certain commands are spoken such as searching on the web for information and controlling appliances. Our system can also monitor the environment in the house such as air quality and gas leakages for added safety.

Keywords: human computer interaction, internet of things, computer vision, sensor networks, speech to text, text to speech, android

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Authors: Nuchjaree Kidjawan, Orapan Thosingha, Pawinee Vaipatama, Prakrankiat Youngkong, Sirinapha Malangputhong, Kitti Thamrongaphichartkul, Phatcharaporn Phetcharat

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NPI uses technology sensorization of things and processed by AI system. The main features are an individual interface pressure sensor system in contact with the mattress and a position management system where the sensor detects the determined pressure with automatic pressure reduction and distribution. The role of NPI is to monitor, identify the risk and manage the interface pressure automatically when the determined pressure is detected. This study aims to evaluate the effects of “Never Pressure Injury (NPI),” an innovative mattress, on the incidence of pressure injuries in critically ill patients. An observational case-control study was employed to compare the incidence of pressure injury between the case and the control group. The control group comprised 80 critically ill patients admitted to a critical care unit of Phyathai3 Hospital, receiving standard care with the use of memory foam according to intensive care unit guidelines. The case group comprised 80 critically ill patients receiving standard care and with the use of the Never Pressure Injury (NPI) innovation mattress. The patients who were over 20 years old and showed scores of less than 18 on the Risk Assessment Pressure Ulcer Scale – ICU and stayed in ICU for more than 24 hours were selected for the study. The patients’ skin was assessed for the occurrence of pressure injury once a day for five consecutive days or until the patients were discharged from ICU. The sample comprised 160 patients with ages ranging from 30-102 (mean = 70.1 years), and the Body Mass Index ranged from 13.69- 49.01 (mean = 24.63). The case and the control group were not different in their sex, age, Body Mass Index, Pressure Ulcer Risk Scores, and length of ICU stay. Twenty-two patients (27.5%) in the control group had pressure injuries, while no pressure injury was found in the case group.

Keywords: pressure injury, never pressure injury, innovation mattress, critically ill patients, prevent pressure injury

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour

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In this paper, we propose a multi-agent intelligent system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of elderly people. Monitoring the health condition of elderly people is a complex problem that involves different medical units and requires continuous monitoring. Such expert system is highly needed in rural areas because of inadequate number of available specialized physicians or nurses. Such monitoring must have autonomous interactions between these medical units in order to be effective. A multi-agent system is formed by a community of agents that exchange information and proactively help one another to achieve the goal of elderly monitoring. The agents in the developed system are equipped with intelligent decision maker that arms them with the rule-based reasoning capability that can assist the physicians in making decisions regarding the medical condition of elderly people.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, inference system, monitoring system, multi-agent system

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Authors: Tolga Barisik, Ali Fuat Guneri, K. Dastan

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Major industrial facilities have a high potential for fire risk. In particular, the indices used for the detection of hidden fire are used very effectively in order to prevent the fire from becoming dangerous in the initial stage. These indices provide the opportunity to prevent or intervene early by determining the stage of the fire, the potential for hazard, and the type of the combustion agent with the percentage values of the ambient air components. In this system, artificial neural network will be modeled with the input data determined using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, which is a multi-layer sensor (CAA) (teacher-learning) type, before modeling the modeling methods in the literature. The actual values produced by the indices will be compared with the outputs produced by the network. Using the neural network and the curves to be created from the resulting values, the feasibility of performance determination will be investigated.

Keywords: artifical neural networks, fire, Graham Index, levenberg-marquardt algoritm, oxygen decrease percentage index, risk assessment, Trickett Index

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: Ana Julia Acevedo Urquiaga, Jose A. Acevedo Suarez, Ana Julia Urquiaga Rodriguez, Neyfe Sablon Cossio

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Despite the progress made in logistics and supply chains fields, it is unavoidable the development of business models that use efficiently information to facilitate the integrated logistics flows management between partners. Collaborative management is an important tool for materializing the cooperation between companies, as a way to achieve the supply chain efficiency and effectiveness. The first face of this research was a comprehensive analysis of the collaborative planning on the Cuban companies. It is evident that they have difficulties in supply chains planning where production, supplies and replenishment planning are independent tasks, as well as logistics and distribution operations. Large inventories generate serious financial and organizational problems for entities, demanding increasing levels of working capital that cannot be financed. Problems were found in the efficient application of Information and Communication Technology on business management. The general objective of this work is to develop a methodology that allows the deployment of a planning and control system in a coordinated way on the medicine’s logistics system in Cuba. To achieve these objectives, several mechanisms of supply chain coordination, mathematical programming models, and other management techniques were analyzed to meet the requirements of collaborative logistics management in Cuba. One of the findings is the practical and theoretical inadequacies of the studied models to solve the current situation of the Cuban logistics systems management. To contribute to the tactical-operative management of logistics, the Collaborative Logistics Flow Management Model (CLFMM) is proposed as a tool for the balance of cycles, capacities, and inventories, always to meet the final customers’ demands in correspondence with the service level expected by these. The CLFMM has as center the supply chain planning and control system as a unique information system, which acts on the processes network. The development of the model is based on the empirical methods of analysis-synthesis and the study cases. Other finding is the demonstration of the use of a single information system to support the supply chain logistics management, allows determining the deadlines and quantities required in each process. This ensures that medications are always available to patients and there are no faults that put the population's health at risk. The simulation of planning and control with the CLFMM in medicines such as dipyrone and chlordiazepoxide, during 5 months of 2017, permitted to take measures to adjust the logistic flow, eliminate delayed processes and avoid shortages of the medicines studied. As a result, the logistics cycle efficiency can be increased to 91%, the inventory rotation would increase, and this results in a release of financial resources.

Keywords: collaborative management, medicine logistic system, supply chain planning, tactical-operative planning

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

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Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

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Authors: Mario M. J. Musonda

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Access to health care is a human right, which includes having timely access to affordable and quality essential medicines at the right place and in sufficient quantity. However, inefficient public sector supply chain management contributes to constant shortages of essential medicines at health facilities. Literature review involved a desktop study of published research studies and reports on risk management, supply chain management of essential medicines and their integration to increase the efficiency of the latter. The research was conducted on a sample population of offices under Ministry of Health Headquarters, Lusaka Provincial and District Offices, selected health facilities in Lusaka, Medical Stores Limited, Zambia Medicines Regulatory Authority and Cooperating Partners. Individuals involved in study were selected judgmentally by their functions under selection and quantification, regulation, procurement, storage, distribution, quality assurance, and dispensing of essential medicines. Structured interviews and discussions were held with selected experts and self-administered questionnaires were distributed. Collected and analysed data of 35 returned and usable questionnaires from the 50 distributed. The highest prioritised risks were; inadequate and inconsistent fund disbursements, weak information management systems, weak quality management systems and insufficient resources (HR and infrastructure) among others. The results for this research can be used to increase the efficiency of the public sector supply chain of essential medicines and other pharmaceuticals. The results of the study showed that there is need to implement effective risk management systems by participating institutions and organisations to increase the efficiency of the entire supply chain in order to avoid and/or reduce shortages of essential medicines at health facilities.

Keywords: essential medicine, risk assessment, risk management, supply chain, supply chain risk management

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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New Taipei city faces increasing number of migrant families, in which the needs of children are sometimes neglected due to insufficient support from communities. Moreover, the traditional mindset of disengagement discourages citizens from preemptively identifying families in need in their communities, resulting in delay of prompt intervention from authorities concerned. To safeguard these vulnerable families, New Taipei city develops the 'Integrated Safety-Net Program for High-Risk Families' from 2011 by implementing the following measures: (A) New attitude and action: Instead of passively receiving reported case of high-risk families, the program takes proactive and preemptive approach to detect and respond at early stage, so the cases are prevented from worsening. In addition, cross-departmental integration mechanism is established to meet multiple needs of high-risk families. The children number added to the government care network is greatly increased to over 10,000, which is around 4.4 times the original number before the program. (B) New service points: 2000 city-wide convenience stores are added as service stations so that children in less privileged families can go to any of 24-hour convenience stores across the city to pick up free meals. This greatly increases the approachability to high-risk families. Moreover, the social welfare institutes will be notified with information left in convenience stores by children and follow up with further assistance, greatly enhancing chances of less privileged families being identified. (C) New Key Figures: Mobilize community officers and volunteers to detect and offer on-site assistance. Volunteer organizations within communities are connected to report and offer follow-up services in a more active manner. In total, from 2011 to 2015, 54,789 cases are identified through active care, benefiting 82,124 children. In addition, 87.49% family-cases in the program receiving comprehensive social assistance are no longer at high risk.

Keywords: cross department, high-risk families, public-private partnership, integrated safety net

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: Hesham Osman

Abstract:

The challenges facing aging urban infrastructure systems require a more holistic and comprehensive approach to their management. The large number of urban infrastructure renewal activities occurring in cities throughout the world leads to social, economic and environmental impacts on the communities in its vicinity. As such, a coordinated effort is required to streamline these activities. This paper presents a framework to enable temporal (time-based) coordination of water, sewer and road intervention activities. Intervention activities include routine maintenance, renewal, and replacement of physical assets. The coordination framework considers 1) Life-cycle costs, 2) Infrastructure level-of-service, and 3) Risk exposure to system operators. The model enables infrastructure asset managers to trade-off options of delaying versus bringing forward intervention activities of one system in order to be executed in conjunction with another co-located system in the right-of-way. The framework relies on a combination of meta-heuristics and goal-based optimization. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework, a case study for a major infrastructure corridor in Cairo, Egypt is taken as an example. Results show that the framework can be scaled-up to include other infrastructure systems located in the right-of-way like electricity, gas and telecom, provided that information can be shared among these entities.

Keywords: infrastructure, rehabilitation, construction, optimization

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Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

Abstract:

Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

Abstract:

The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri

Abstract:

A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.

Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 208