Search results for: attack risk

Authors: A. Mostaani, M. P. Pereira, B. F. Rolfe

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The increasing application of Advanced High Strength Steel (AHSS) in the automotive industry to fulfill crash requirements has introduced higher levels of wear in stamping dies and parts. Therefore, understanding wear behaviour in sheet metal forming is of great importance as it can help to reduce the high costs currently associated with tool wear. At the contact between the die and the sheet, the tips of hard tool asperities interact with the softer sheet material. Understanding the deformation that occurs during this interaction is important for our overall understanding of the wear mechanisms. For these reasons, the scratching of a perfectly plastic material by a rigid indenter has been widely examined in the literature; with finite element modelling (FEM) used in recent years to further understand the behaviour. The ‘wear mode diagram’ has been commonly used to classify the deformation regime of the soft work-piece during scratching, into three modes: ploughing, wedge formation, and cutting. This diagram, which is based on 2D slip line theory and upper bound method for perfectly plastic work-piece and rigid indenter, relates different wear modes to attack angle and interfacial strength. This diagram has been the basis for many wear studies and wear models to date. Additionally, it has been concluded that galling is most likely to occur during the wedge formation mode. However, there has been little analysis in the literature of how the material behaviour and deformation conditions associated with metal forming processes influence the wear behaviour. Therefore, the first aim of this work is first to use a commercial FEM package (Abaqus/Explicit) to build a 3D model to capture wear modes during scratching with indenters with different attack angles and different interfacial strengths. The second goal is to utilise the developed model to understand how wear modes might change in the presence of bulk deformation of the work-piece material as a result of the metal forming operation. Finally, the effect of the work-piece material properties, including strain hardening, will be examined to understand how these influence the wear modes and wear behaviour. The results show that both strain hardening and substrate deformation can change the critical attack angle at which the wedge formation regime is activated.

Keywords: finite element, pile-up, scratch test, wear mode

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

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Authors: Phillip Garrad, Saritha Unnikrishnan

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The recent popularity of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAV) corresponds with an increase in the risk of cyber-attacks. These cyber-attacks have been instigated by both researchers or white-coat hackers and cyber-criminals. As Connected Vehicles move towards full autonomy, the impact of these cyber-attacks also grows. The current research details challenges faced in cybersecurity testing of CAV, including access and cost of the representative test setup. Other challenges faced are lack of experts in the field. Possible solutions to how these challenges can be overcome are reviewed and discussed. From these findings, a software simulated CAV network is established as a cost-effective representative testbed. Penetration tests are then performed on this simulation, demonstrating a cyber-attack in CAV. Studies have shown Artificial Intelligence (AI) to improve runtime, increase efficiency and comprehensively cover all the typical test aspects in penetration testing in other industries. There is an attempt to introduce similar AI models to the software simulation. The expectation from this implementation is to see similar improvements in runtime and efficiency for the CAV model. If proven to be an effective means of penetration test for CAV, this methodology may be used on a full CAV test network.

Keywords: cybersecurity, connected vehicles, software simulation, artificial intelligence, penetration testing

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Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Sima Mohamadi Amidabadi, Amir Mohamadi Nejad, Farahnaz Nekoofar

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As a result of uncertainty and doubts about the quantity of agricultural products, greater significance has been attached to risk management in the agricultural sector. Normally, farmers seek to minimize risks, and crop diversity has always been a means to reduce risk. The study at hand seeks to explore the long-term impact of crop diversity on income risk reduction. The timeframe of the study is 1998 to 2018. Initially, the Herfindahl index was used to estimate crop diversity in different periods, and next, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to estimate income risk both in nominal and real terms. Finally, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the long-term impact of crop diversity on two modes of risk for the farmer's income has been estimated. Given the long-term pattern’s results, it is evident that in the long-run, crop diversity can reduce income fluctuations in two nominal and real terms. Moreover, results showed that in case the fluctuation shock affects the agricultural income in the short run, to balance out the shock in nominal and real terms, 4 and 3 cycles are needed respectively. In other words, in each cycle, 25% and 33% of the shock impact can be removed, respectively. Thus, as the results of the error correction coefficient showed, policies need to be put in place to prevent income shocks. In case of a shock, they need to be balanced out in a four-year period, taking inflation into account, and in a three-year period irrespective of the inflation and reparative policies such as insurance services should be developed.

Keywords: risk, long-term model, Herfindahl index, time series model, vector error correction model

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Authors: Alam Anshary, Flora Pasaru, Shahabuddin

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The Cocoa Pod Borer (CPB), Conopomorpha cramerella (Snell.) is present on most of the larger cocoa producing islands in Indonesia. Various control measures CPB has been carried out by the farmers, but the results have not been effective. This study aims to determine the effect of application of Beauveria bassiana treatments and pruning technique to the control of CPB in the cocoa plantation people. Research using completely randomized design with 4 treatments and 3 replications, treatment consists of B.bassiana, Pruning, B. bassiana+pruning (Bb + Pr), as well as the control. The results showed that the percentage of PBK attack on cocoa pods in treatment (Bb + Pr) 3.50% the lowest compared to other treatments. CPB attack percentage in treatment B.bassiana 6.15%; pruning 8.75%, and 15.20% control. Results of the analysis of production estimates, the known treatments (Bb + Pr) have the highest production (1.95 tonnes / ha). The model results estimated production is Y= 0,20999 + 0,53968X1 + 0,34298X2+ 0,31410X3 + 0,35629X4 + 0,08345X5 + 0,29732X6. Farm production costs consist of fixed costs and variable costs, fixed costs are costs incurred by the farmer that the size does not affect the results, such as taxes and depreciation of production equipment. Variable costs are costs incurred by farmers who used up in one year cocoa farming activities. The cost of production in farming cocoa without integrated techniques control of CPB is Rp. 9.205.550 million/ha, while the cost of production with integrated techniques control is Rp. 6.666.050 million/ha.

Keywords: cacao, cocoa pod borer, pruning, Beauveria bassiana, production costs

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Authors: Alev Atak

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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

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Authors: Deeman Yousif Mahmood, Mohammed Abdullah Hussein

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The goal of a network-based intrusion detection system is to classify activities of network traffics into two major categories: normal and attack (intrusive) activities. Nowadays, data mining and machine learning plays an important role in many sciences; including intrusion detection system (IDS) using both supervised and unsupervised techniques. However, one of the essential steps of data mining is feature selection that helps in improving the efficiency, performance and prediction rate of proposed approach. This paper applies unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm with information gain (IG) for feature selection and reduction to build a network intrusion detection system. For our experimental analysis, we have used the new NSL-KDD dataset, which is a modified dataset for KDDCup 1999 intrusion detection benchmark dataset. With a split of 60.0% for the training set and the remainder for the testing set, a 2 class classifications have been implemented (Normal, Attack). Weka framework which is a java based open source software consists of a collection of machine learning algorithms for data mining tasks has been used in the testing process. The experimental results show that the proposed approach is very accurate with low false positive rate and high true positive rate and it takes less learning time in comparison with using the full features of the dataset with the same algorithm.

Keywords: information gain (IG), intrusion detection system (IDS), k-means clustering, Weka

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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Authors: Isaias Teklia Berhe

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A decision that deals with international disputes, be it arbitral or judicial, has to properly reflect objectivity and coherence with existing rules of international law. This paper shows the decision of the Ethio-Eritrea Claims Commission on the jus ad bellum case is bereft of objectivity and coherence, which contributed a disservice to international law on many aspects. The Commission’s decision that holds Eritrea in contravention to Art 2(4) of the UN Charter based on Ethiopia’s contention is flawed. It fails to consider: the illegitimacy of an actual authority established over contested territory through hostile acts, the proper determination of effectivites under international law, the sanctity of colonially determined boundaries, Ethiopia’s prior firm political recognition and undergirds to respect colonial boundary, and Ethio-Eritrea Border Commission’s decision. The paper will also argue that the Commission confused Eritrea’s right of self-defense with the rule against the non-use of force to settle territorial disputes; wherefore its decision sanitizes or sterilizes unlawful change of territory resulted through unlawful use of force to the effect of advantaging aggressions. The paper likewise argues that the decision is so sacrilegious that it disregards the ossified legal finality of colonial boundaries. Moreover, its approach toward armed attack does not reflect the peculiarity of the jus ad bellum case rather it brings about definitional uncertainties and sustains the perception that the law on self-defense is unsettled.

Keywords: armed attack, Eritrea, Ethiopia, self-defense, territorial integrity, use of force

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

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Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

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Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

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The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Etienne Sugewe

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Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Cai Qianyi

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In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

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Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

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Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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Authors: Mohammad Karimizadehardakani, Hooman Minoonejad, Reza Rajabi, Ali Sharifnejad

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Background: Ankle sprain is one of the most important risk factor of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Also, functional ankle instability (FAI) population has alterations in lower extremity sagittal plane biomechanics during landing task. We want to examine whether biomechanical alterations demonstrated by FAI patients are associated with the mechanism of ACL injury during high risk and sport related tasks. Methods: Sixteen basketball player with FAI and 16 non-injured control performed a single-leg cross drop landing. Knee sagittal and frontal (ATSF) was calculated. Independent t-tests, multiple linear regression, and Pearson correlation were used for analysis data. Result: Subject with FAI showed more peak ATFS, posterior ground reaction force (GRF) and less knee flexion, compared to the controls (P= 0.001, P= 0.004, P= 0.011). Knee flexion (r= −0.824, P = 0.011) and posterior GRF (r= 0.901, P = .001) were correlated with ATSF; Posterior GRF was factor that most explained the variance in ATSF (R2= 0.645; P = .001) in the FAI group. Conclusions: Result of our study showed there is a potential biomechanical relationship between the presence of FAI and risk factors associated with ACL injury mechanism.

Keywords: functional ankle instability, anterior cruciate ligament, biomechanics, risk factor

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Authors: Juan Santos Garcia

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Introduction: Tuberculosis is a chronic granulomatous disease caused by a microorganism called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, it has the capacity to spread from the lungs to other parts of the body. Globally, the rate per 100 thousand inhabitants has varied from 136 in 2007 to 122 in 2012; while in the region of the Americas has been much lower: 32 cases per 100,000 in 2007, to 29 in 2012. In El Salvador have also varied incidence rates from 2007 to 2012, from 27.4 cases per 100 000 population to 32 in the period indicated. Methods: Screening was performed with smear and chest X-ray at 80 military personnel from Military Brigade # 5 of El Salvador. Besides HIV tests were taken at the positive cases, which are also made interview, investigating demographic, clinical, laboratory and risk factors data. Frequencies, percentages and rates were calculated using Excel page. The rates were calculated for each of the 5 military bedrooms (called A, B, C, D, and E). Results: Attack rate was 18.75% in the bedroom C. the index case was identified and two secondary cases, with an exposure period of 59 days. Only the index case presented symptoms: cough, fever and weight loss. The other two cases had no symptoms. Discussion: We found a rate of tuberculosis 526 times higher than the national rate. He was also 12.5 times higher than that found in other studies in closed populations such as school facilities. It was not possible to make association analysis.

Keywords: tuberculosis, outbreak, military brigade, chronic granulomatous disease

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Authors: Himali Gunasekara, Baddika Jayaratne

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Haematological abnormalities are known to cause Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA). The identification of haematological correlates plays an important role in a management and secondary prevention. The objective of this study was to describe haematological correlates of stroke and their association between stroke profile. The haematological correlates screened were Lupus Anticoagulant, Dysfibroginemia, Paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinurea (PNH), Sickle cell disease, Systemic Lupus Erythematosis (SLE) and Myeloploriferative Neoplasms (MPN). A cross sectional descriptive study was conducted in a sample of 152 stroke patients referred to haematology department of National Hospital of Sri Lanka for thrombophilia screening. Different tests were performed to assess each hematological correlate. Diluted Russels Viper Venom Test and Kaolin clotting time were done to assess Lupus anticoagulant. Full blood count (FBC), blood picture, Sickling test and High Performance Liquid Chromatography were the tests used for detection of Sickle cell disease. Paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinurea was assessed by FBC, blood picture, Ham test and Flowcytometry. FBC, blood picture, Janus Kinase 2 (V617F) mutation analysis, erythropoietin level and bone marrow examination were done to look for the Myeloproliferative neoplasms. Dysfibrinogenaemia was assessed by TT, fibrinogen antigen test, clot observation and clauss test. Anti nuclear antibody test was done to look for systemic lupus erythematosis. Among study sample, 134 patients had strokes and only 18 had TIA. The recurrence of stroke/TIA was observed in 13.2% of patients. The majority of patients (94.7%) have had radiological evidence of thrombotic event. One fourth of patients had past thrombotic events while 12.5% had family history of thrombosis. Out of haematological correlates screened, Lupus anticoagulant was the commonest haematological correlate (n=16 ) and dysfibrigonaemia(n=11 ) had the next high prevalence. One patient was diagnosed with Essential thrombocythaemia and one with SLE. None of the patients were positive for screening tests done for sickle cell disease and PNH. The Haematological correlates were identified in 19% of our study sample. Among stroke profile only presence of past thrombotic history was statistically significantly associated with haematological disorders (P= 0.04). Therefore, hematological disorders appear to be an important factor in etiological work-up of stroke patients particularly in patients with past thrombotic events.

Keywords: stroke, transient ischemic attack, hematological correlates, hematological disorders

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Authors: Felix Olajide Ibikunle

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Introductory Statement: Sustainable participation of teenagers in sport requires deliberate and concerted plan and managerial policy rooted in the “philosophy of catch them young”. At risk, teenagers need proper integration into societal aspiration: This direction will go a long way to streamline them into the security breach and attractive nuisance free lifestyles. Basic Methodology: The population consists of children within 13-19 years old. A proportionate sampling size technique of 60% was adopted to select seven zones out of 11 geo-political zones in the Ibadan metropolis. Qualitative information and interview were used to collect needed information. Majority of the teenagers were out of school, street hawkers, motor pack, touts, and unserious vocation apprentices. These groups have the potentials of security breaches in the metropolis and beyond. Five hundred and thirty-four (534) respondents were used for the study. They were drawn from Ojoo, Akingbile, and Moniya axis = 72, Agbowo, Ajibode, and Apete axis = 74; Akobo, Basorun, and Idi-ape axis 79; Wofun, Monatan, and Iyana-Church axis = 78; Molete, Oke-ado and Oke-Bola axis = 75; Beere, Odinjo, Elekuro axis = 77; Eleyele, Ologuneru, and Alesinloye axis = 79. Major Findings: Multiple regression was used to analyze the independent variables and percentage. The respondents average age was 15.6 years old, and with 100% male. The instrument(questionnaire) used yielded; sport preference (r = 0.72); intervention (r = 0.68) and the sustainable participation (r = 0.70).The relative contributions of sport preference on participation of at risk teenagers was (F-ratio = 1.067); Intervention contribution of sport on participation of at risk teenagers = produced (F-ratio of 12.095) was significant while sustainable participation of at risk teenager produced (F-ratio = 1.062) was significant. Closing Statement: The respondents’ sport preference stimulated their participation in sport. The intervention exposed at risk-teenagers to coaching, which activated their interest and participation in sport. While sustainable participation contributed positively to evolve at risk teenagers participation in their preferred sport.

Keywords: sport, preference, intervention, teenagers, sustainable, participation and risk teenagers

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Authors: Vatasta Koul, Ayush Gupta, Vaibhav Sharma, Rajesh Yadav

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Today we are unmarking the secrets of the universe by exploring different stars and planets and most of the space exploration is done by unmanned space robots. In addition to our planet Earth, there are pieces of evidence that show other astronomical objects in our solar system such as Venus, Mars, Saturn’s moon Titan and Uranus support the flight of fixed wing air vehicles. In this paper, we take forward the concept of presence of large rounded tubercles along the leading edge of a wing and use it as a passive flow control device that will help in improving its aerodynamic performance and maneuverability. Furthermore, in this research, aerodynamic measurements and performance analysis of wavy leading tubercles on the fixed wings at 5-degree angle of attack are carried out after determination of the flow conditions on the selected planetary bodies. Wavelength and amplitude for the sinusoidal modifications on the leading edge are analyzed and simulations are carried out for three-dimensional NACA 0012 airfoil maintaining unity AR (Aspect Ratio). Tubercles have consistently demonstrated the ability to delay and decrease the severity of stall as per the studies were done in the Earth’s atmosphere. Implementing the same design on the leading edges of Micro-Air Vehicles (MAVs) and UAVs could make these aircrafts more stable over a greater range of angles of attack in different planetary environments of our solar system.

Keywords: amplitude, NACA0012, tubercles, unmanned space robots

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: P. Booma Devi, Dilip A. Shah

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This paper seeks the potentials of studying aerodynamic characteristics of inward cavities called dimples, as an alternative to the classical vortex generators. Increasing stalling angle is a greater challenge in wing design. But our examination is primarily focused on increasing lift. In this paper, enhancement of lift is mainly done by introduction of dimple or cavity in a wing. In general, aircraft performance can be enhanced by increasing aerodynamic efficiency that is lift to drag ratio of an aircraft wing. Efficiency improvement can be achieved by improving the maximum lift co-efficient or by reducing the drag co-efficient. At the time of landing aircraft, high angle of attack may lead to stalling of aircraft. To avoid this kind of situation, increase in the stalling angle is warranted. Hence, improved stalling characteristic is the best way to ease landing complexity. Computational analysis is done for the wing segment made of NACA 0012. Simulation is carried out for 30 m/s free stream velocity over plain airfoil and different types of cavities. The wing is modeled in CATIA V5R20 and analyses are carried out using ANSYS CFX. Triangle and square shapes are used as cavities for analysis. Simulations revealed that cavity placed on wing segment shows an increase of maximum lift co-efficient when compared to normal wing configuration. Flow separation is delayed at downstream of the wing by the presence of cavities up to a particular angle of attack.

Keywords: lift, drag reduce, square dimple, triangle dimple, enhancement of stall angle

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

Procedia PDF Downloads 189