Search results for: prediction interval

Authors: Ju-Hyung Kim, Dae-Ho Mun, Hong-Gun Park

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When an impact is applied to a floating floor, noise and vibration response of high-frequency range is reduced effectively, while amplifies the response at low-frequency range. This means floating floor can make worse noise condition when heavy-weight impact is applied. The amplified response is the result of interaction between finishing layer (mortar plate) and concrete slab. Because an impact force is not directly delivered to concrete slab, the impact force waveform or spectrum can be changed. In this paper, the changed impact spectrum was derived from several floating floor vibration tests. Based on the measured data, numerical modeling can describe the floating floor response, especially at low-frequency range. As a result, heavy-weight impact noise can be predicted using modified impact spectrum.

Keywords: floating floor, heavy-weight impact, prediction, vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: J. Ticona Chambi, E. A. De Almeida, C. A. Andrade Raymundo Gaiotto, A. M. Do Espírito Santo, L. Infantes, S. L. Cuffini

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The solubility of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is challenging for the pharmaceutical industry. The new multicomponent crystalline forms as cocrystal and solvates present an opportunity to improve the solubility of APIs. Commonly, the procedure to obtain multicomponent crystalline forms of a drug starts by screening the drug molecule with the different coformers/solvents. However, it is necessary to develop methods to obtain multicomponent forms in an efficient way and with the least possible environmental impact. The Hansen Solubility Parameters (HSPs) is considered a tool to obtain theoretical knowledge of the solubility of the target compound in the chosen solvent. H-Bond Propensity (HBP), Molecular Complementarity (MC), Coordination Values (CV) are tools used for statistical prediction of cocrystals developed by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Center (CCDC). The HSPs and the CCDC tools are based on inter- and intra-molecular interactions. The curcumin (Cur), target molecule, is commonly used as an anti‐inflammatory. The demethoxycurcumin (Demcur) and bisdemethoxycurcumin (Bisdcur) are natural analogues of Cur from turmeric. Those target molecules have differences in their solubilities. In this way, the work aimed to analyze and compare different tools for multicomponent forms prediction (solvates) of Cur, Demcur and Biscur. The HSP values were calculated for Cur, Demcur, and Biscur using the chemical group contribution methods and the statistical optimization from experimental data. The HSPmol software was used. From the HSPs of the target molecules and fifty solvents (listed in the HSP books), the relative energy difference (RED) was determined. The probability of the target molecules would be interacting with the solvent molecule was determined using the CCDC tools. A dataset of fifty molecules of different organic solvents was ranked for each prediction method and by a consensus ranking of different combinations: HSP, CV, HBP and MC values. Based on the prediction, 15 solvents were selected as Dimethyl Sulfoxide (DMSO), Tetrahydrofuran (THF), Acetonitrile (ACN), 1,4-Dioxane (DOX) and others. In a starting analysis, the slow evaporation technique from 50°C at room temperature and 4°C was used to obtain solvates. The single crystals were collected by using a Bruker D8 Venture diffractometer, detector Photon100. The data processing and crystal structure determination were performed using APEX3 and Olex2-1.5 software. According to the results, the HSPs (theoretical and optimized) and the Hansen solubility sphere for Cur, Demcur and Biscur were obtained. With respect to prediction analyses, a way to evaluate the predicting method was through the ranking and the consensus ranking position of solvates already reported in the literature. It was observed that the combination of HSP-CV obtained the best results when compared to the other methods. Furthermore, as a result of solvent selected, six new solvates, Cur-DOX, Cur-DMSO, Bicur-DOX, Bircur-THF, Demcur-DOX, Demcur-ACN and a new Biscur hydrate, were obtained. Crystal structures were determined for Cur-DOX, Biscur-DOX, Demcur-DOX and Bicur-Water. Moreover, the unit-cell parameter information for Cur-DMSO, Biscur-THF and Demcur-ACN were obtained. The preliminary results showed that the prediction method is showing a promising strategy to evaluate the possibility of forming multicomponent. It is currently working on obtaining multicomponent single crystals.

Keywords: curcumin, HSPs, prediction, solvates, solubility

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Authors: Ahmed T. Farid, Muhammed Rizwan

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Geotechnical study for evaluating soil or rock permeability is a highly important parameter. Permeability values for rock formations are more difficult for determination than soil formation as it is an effect of the rock quality and its fracture values. In this research, the prediction of in situ permeability of limestone rock formations was predicted. The limestone rock permeability was evaluated using Lugeon tests (in-situ packer permeability). Different sites which spread all over the Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia were chosen to conduct our study of predicting the in-situ permeability of limestone rock. Correlations were deducted between the values of in-situ permeability of the limestone rock with the value of the rock quality designation (RQD) calculated during the execution of the boreholes of the study areas. The study was performed for different ranges of RQD values measured during drilling of the sites boreholes. The developed correlations are recommended for the onsite determination of the in-situ permeability of limestone rock only. For the other sedimentary formations of rock, more studies are needed for predicting the actual correlations related to each type.

Keywords: In situ, packer, permeability, rock, quality

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Authors: B. Samuel Raj, Solomon R. D. Jebakumar

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Microbial fuel cells (MFCs) are an emerging and promising method for achieving sustainable energy since they can remove contaminated organic matter and simultaneously generate electricity. Our approach was driven in three different ways like Bacterial fuel cell, Soil Microbial fuel cell (Soil MFC) and Plant Microbial fuel cell (Plant MFC). Bacterial MFC: Sulphate reducing bacteria (SRB) were isolated and identified as the efficient electricigens which is able to produce ±2.5V (689mW/m2) and it has sustainable activity for 120 days. Experimental data with different MFC revealed that high electricity production harvested continuously for 90 days 1.45V (381mW/m2), 1.98V (456mW/m2) respectively. Biofilm formation was confirmed on the surface of the anode by high content screening (HCS) and scanning electron Microscopic analysis (SEM). Soil MFC: Soil MFC was constructed with low cost and standard Mudwatt soil MFC was purchased from keegotech (USA). Vermicompost soil (V1) produce high energy (± 3.5V for ± 400 days) compared to Agricultural soil (A1) (± 2V for ± 150 days). Biofilm formation was confirmed by HCS and SEM analysis. This finding provides a method for extracting energy from organic matter, but also suggests a strategy for promoting the bioremediation of organic contaminants in subsurface environments. Our Soil MFC were able to run successfully a 3.5V fan and three LED continuously for 150 days. Plant MFC: Amaranthus candatus (P1) and Triticum aestivium (P2) were used in Plant MFC to confirm the electricity production from plant associated microbes, four uniform size of Plant MFC were constructed and checked for energy production. P2 produce high energy (± 3.2V for 40 days) with harvesting interval of two times and P1 produces moderate energy without harvesting interval (±1.5V for 24 days). P2 is able run 3.5V fan continuously for 10days whereas P1 needs optimization of growth conditions to produce high energy.

Keywords: microbial fuel cell, biofilm, soil microbial fuel cell, plant microbial fuel cell

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Authors: Hilya Mudrika Arini, Nur Aini Masruroh, Budi Hartono

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There are more than 20 terrorist threats from 2002 to 2012 in Indonesia. Despite of this fact, preventive solution through studies in the field of national security in Indonesia has not been conducted comprehensively. This study aims to provide a preventive solution by developing prediction model of the terrorist threat in Indonesia by using Bayesian network. There are eight stages to build the model, started from literature review, build and verify Bayesian belief network to what-if scenario. In order to build the model, four experts from different perspectives are utilized. This study finds several significant findings. First, news and the readiness of terrorist group are the most influent factor. Second, according to several scenarios of the news portion, it can be concluded that the higher positive news proportion, the higher probability of terrorist threat will occur. Therefore, the preventive solution to reduce the terrorist threat in Indonesia based on the model is by keeping the positive news portion to a maximum of 38%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, decision analysis, national security system, text mining

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Authors: Gabrielle Peck, Ryan Hayes

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This research presents the design and creation of a drone gas analyser, aimed at addressing the need for independent data collection and analysis of gas emissions during large-scale fires, particularly wasteland fires. The analyser drone, comprising a lightweight gas analysis system attached to a remote-controlled drone, enables the real-time assessment of smoke toxicity and the monitoring of gases released into the atmosphere during such incidents. The key components of the analyser unit included two gas line inlets connected to glass wool filters, a pump with regulated flow controlled by a mass flow controller, and electrochemical cells for detecting nitrogen oxides, hydrogen cyanide, and oxygen levels. Additionally, a non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) analyser is employed to monitor carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and hydrocarbon concentrations. Thermocouples can be attached to the analyser to monitor temperature, as well as McCaffrey probes combined with pressure transducers to monitor air velocity and wind direction. These additions allow for monitoring of the large fire and can be used for predictions of fire spread. The innovative system not only provides crucial data for assessing smoke toxicity but also contributes to fire prediction and management. The remote-controlled drone's mobility allows for safe and efficient data collection in proximity to the fire source, reducing the need for human exposure to hazardous conditions. The data obtained from the gas analyser unit facilitates informed decision-making by emergency responders, aiding in the protection of both human health and the environment. This abstract highlights the successful development of a drone gas analyser, illustrating its potential for enhancing smoke toxicity analysis and fire prediction capabilities. The integration of this technology into fire management strategies offers a promising solution for addressing the challenges associated with wildfires and other large-scale fire incidents. The project's methodology and results contribute to the growing body of knowledge in the field of environmental monitoring and safety, emphasizing the practical utility of drones for critical applications.

Keywords: fire prediction, drone, smoke toxicity, analyser, fire management

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Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

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Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

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Authors: Jawairia Umar, Tanveer Hussain, Zulfiqar Ali, Muhammad Maqsood

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Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.

Keywords: Compression, sportswear, stretch and recovery, statistical model, kikuhime

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Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

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We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

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Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers

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The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: Yilei Song, Linlin Tian, Ning Zhao

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Turbulence energetics and structures in the wake of large-scale wind turbines under the stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) can be complicated due to the presence of low-level jets (LLJs), a region of higher wind speeds than the geostrophic wind speed. With a modified one-k-equation, eddy viscosity model specified for atmospheric flows as the sub-grid scale (SGS) model, a realistic atmospheric state of the stable ABL is well reproduced by large-eddy simulation (LES) techniques. Corresponding to the precursor stably stratification, the detailed wake properties of a standard 5-MW wind turbine represented as an actuator line model are provided. An engineering model is proposed for wake prediction based on the simulation statistics and gets validated. Results confirm that the proposed wake model can provide good predictions for wind turbines under the SABL.

Keywords: large-eddy simulation, stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer, wake model, wind turbine wake

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Authors: Victor N. Anisimov, Igor E. Serov, Ksenia M. Kolkova, Natalia V. Galkina

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The problem of memorability of the advertising content is closely connected with the key issues of neuromarketing. The memorability of the advertising content contributes to the marketing effectiveness of the promoted product. Significant directions of studying the phenomenon of memorability are the memorability of the brand (detected through the memorability of the logo) and the memorability of the product offer (detected through the memorization of dynamic audiovisual advertising content - commercial). The aim of this work is to reveal the predictors of memorization of static and dynamic audiovisual stimuli (logos and commercials). An important direction of the research was revealing differences in psychophysiological correlates of memorability between static and dynamic audiovisual stimuli. We assumed that static and dynamic images are perceived in different ways and may have a difference in the memorization process. Objective methods of recording psychophysiological parameters while watching static and dynamic audiovisual materials are well suited to achieve the aim. The electroencephalography (EEG) method was performed with the aim of identifying correlates of the memorability of various stimuli in the electrical activity of the cerebral cortex. All stimuli (in the groups of statics and dynamics separately) were divided into 2 groups – remembered and not remembered based on the results of the questioning method. The questionnaires were filled out by survey participants after viewing the stimuli not immediately, but after a time interval (for detecting stimuli recorded through long-term memorization). Using statistical method, we developed the classifier (statistical model) that predicts which group (remembered or not remembered) stimuli gets, based on psychophysiological perception. The result of the statistical model was compared with the results of the questionnaire. Conclusions: Predictors of the memorability of static and dynamic stimuli have been identified, which allows prediction of which stimuli will have a higher probability of remembering. Further developments of this study will be the creation of stimulus memory model with the possibility of recognizing the stimulus as previously seen or new. Thus, in the process of remembering the stimulus, it is planned to take into account the stimulus recognition factor, which is one of the most important tasks for neuromarketing.

Keywords: memory, commercials, neuromarketing, EEG, branding

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Authors: Fergus Wade, Jasmine Makker, Matthew Jankinson, Aminah Qamar, Gemma Morrelli, Shayan Shah

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Background: Ambulance offload delays (AODs) affect patient outcomes. At baseline, the average AOD at Princess Royal University Hospital (PRUH) was 41 minutes, in breach of the 15-minute target. Aims: By February 2023, we aimed to reduce: the average AOD to 30 minutes percentage of AOD >30 minutes (PA30) to 25% and >60 minutes (PA60) to 10% Methods: Following a root-cause analysis, we implemented 2 Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) cycles. PDSA-1 ‘Drop-and-run’: ambulances waiting >15 minutes for a handover left the patients in the Emergency Department (ED) and returned to the community. PDSA-2: Booking in the patients before the handover, allowing direct updates to online records, eliminating the need for handwritten notes. Outcome measures: AOD, PA30, and PA60, and process measures: total ambulances and patients in the ED were recorded for 16 weeks. Results: In PDSA-1, all parameters increased slightly despite unvarying ED crowding. In PDSA-2, two shifts in data were seen: initially, a sharp increase in the outcome measures consistent with increased ED crowding, followed by a downward shift when crowding returned to baseline (p<0.01). Within this interval, the AOD reduced to 29.9 minutes, and PA30 and PA60 were 31.2% and 9.2% respectively. Discussion/conclusion: PDSA-1 didn’t result in any significant changes; lack of compliance was a key cause. The initial upward shift in PDSA-2 is likely associated with NHS staff strikes. However, during the second interval, the AOD and the PA60 met our targets of 30 minutes and 10%, respectively, improving patient flow in the ED. This was sustained without further input and if maintained, saves 2 paramedic shifts every 3 days.

Keywords: ambulance offload, district general hospital, handover, quality improvement

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Authors: Vijay Pal Singh, Yogesh Chandra Kotiyal

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Structures are a combination of various load carrying members which transfer the loads to the foundation from the superstructure safely. At the design stage, the loading of the structure is defined and appropriate material choices are made based upon their properties, mainly related to strength. The strength of materials kept on reducing with time because of many factors like environmental exposure and deformation caused by unpredictable external loads. Hence, to predict the strength of materials used in structures, various techniques are used. Among these techniques, Non-Destructive Techniques (NDT) are the one that can be used to predict the strength without damaging the structure. In the present study, the compressive strength of concrete has been predicted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The predicted strength was compared with the experimentally obtained actual compressive strength of concrete and equations were developed for different models. A good co-relation has been obtained between the predicted strength by these models and experimental values. Further, the co-relation has been developed using two NDT techniques for prediction of strength by regression analysis. It was found that the percentage error has been reduced between the predicted strength by using combined techniques in place of single techniques.

Keywords: rebound, ultra-sonic pulse, penetration, ANN, NDT, regression

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Authors: K. Tejasri, K. Suvarna Vani, S. Prathyusha, S. Ramya

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Proteins are chained sequences of amino acids which are brought together by the peptide bonds. Many varying formations of the chains are possible due to multiple combinations of amino acids and rotation in numerous positions along the chain. Protein structure prediction is one of the crucial goals worked towards by the members of bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry backgrounds. Among the four different structure levels in proteins, we emphasize mainly the secondary level structure. Generally, the secondary protein basically comprises alpha-helix and beta-sheets. Multi-class classification problem of data with disparity is truly a challenge to overcome and has to be addressed for the beta strands. Imbalanced data distribution constitutes a couple of the classes of data having very limited training samples collated with other classes. The secondary structure data is extracted from the protein primary sequence, and the beta-strands are predicted using suitable machine learning algorithms.

Keywords: proteins, secondary structure elements, beta-sheets, beta-strands, alpha-helices, machine learning algorithms

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Authors: Teka Haile, Behailu Hawulte, Solomon Alemayehu

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Background: HIV virological failure still remains a problem in HV/AIDS treatment and care. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and identify the factors associated with viral non-suppression among HIV-positive adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 424 HIV-positive patient’s attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Woliso Town during the period from August 25, 2020 to August 30, 2020. Data collected from patient medical records were entered into Epi Info version 2.3.2.1 and exported to SPSS version 21.0 for analysis. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with viral load non-suppression, and statistical significance of odds ratios were declared using 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05. Results: A total of 424 patients were included in this study. The mean age (± SD) of the study participants was 39.88 (± 9.995) years. The prevalence of HIV viral load non-suppression was 55 (13.0%) with 95% CI (9.9-16.5). Second-line ART treatment regimen (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 8.98, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.64, 30.58) and routine viral load testing (AOR = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.02) were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. Conclusion: Virological non-suppression was high, which hinders the achievement of the third global 95 target. The second-line regimen and routine viral load testing were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. It suggests the need to assess the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs for epidemic control. It also clearly shows the need to decentralize third-line ART treatment for those patients in need.

Keywords: virological non-suppression, HIV-positive, ART, Woliso town, Ethiopia

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Piyarat Parklug, Busaba Supawattanaobodee, Penpat Pinyowattanasilp

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The radioactive iodine thyroid uptake (RAIU) has been widely used to differentiate the cause of thyrotoxicosis and treatment. Twenty-four hours RAIU is routinely used to calculate the dose of radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy; however, 2 days protocol is required. This study aims to evaluate the modification of Penpat Pinyowattanasilp equation application by the exclusion of outlier data, 3 hours RAIU less than 20% and more than 80%, to improve prediction of 24-hour uptake. The equation is predicted 24 hours RAIU (P24RAIU) = 32.5+0.702 (3 hours RAIU). Then calculating separation first and second therapeutic doses in Graves’ disease patients. Methods; This study was a retrospective study at Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Inclusion were Graves’ disease patients who visited RAI clinic between January 2014-March 2019. We divided subjects into 2 groups according to first and second therapeutic doses. Results; Our study had a total of 151 patients. The study was done in 115 patients with first RAI dose and 36 patients with second RAI dose. The P24RAIU are highly correlated with actual 24-hour RAIU in first and second therapeutic doses (r = 0.913, 95% CI = 0.876 to 0.939 and r = 0.806, 95% CI = 0.649 to 0.897). Bland-Altman plot shows that mean differences between predictive and actual 24 hours RAI in the first dose and second dose were 2.14% (95%CI 0.83-3.46) and 1.37% (95%CI -1.41-4.14). The mean first actual and predictive therapeutic doses are 8.33 ± 4.93 and 7.38 ± 3.43 milliCuries (mCi) respectively. The mean second actual and predictive therapeutic doses are 6.51 ± 3.96 and 6.01 ± 3.11 mCi respectively. The predictive therapeutic doses are highly correlated with the actual dose in first and second therapeutic doses (r = 0.907, 95% CI = 0.868 to 0.935 and r = 0.953, 95% CI = 0.909 to 0.976). Bland-Altman plot shows that mean difference between predictive and actual P24RAIU in the first dose and second dose were less than 1 mCi (-0.94 and -0.5 mCi). This modification equation application is simply used in clinical practice especially patient with 3 hours RAIU in range of 20-80% in a Thai population. Before use, this equation for other population should be tested for the correlation.

Keywords: equation, Graves’disease, prediction, 24-hour uptake

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Authors: Agustyas Tjiptaningrum, Intanri Kurniati, Fadilah Fadilah, Linda Erlina, Tiwuk Susantiningsih

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Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is still one of the health problems. It can be a severe condition that is caused by a cytokine storm. In a cytokine storm, several proinflammatory cytokines are released massively. It destroys epithelial cells, and subsequently, it can cause death. The anti-inflammatory agent can be used to decrease the number of severe Covid-19 conditions. Melaleuca cajuputi is a plant that has antiviral, antibiotic, antioxidant, and anti-inflammatory activities. This study was carried out to analyze the prediction mechanism of the M. cajuputi extract from Lampung, Indonesia, as an anti-inflammatory agent for COVID-19. This study constructed a database of protein host target that was involved in the inflammation process of COVID-19 using data retrieval from GeneCards with the keyword “SARS-CoV2”, “inflammation,” “cytokine storm,” and “acute respiratory distress syndrome.” Subsequent protein-protein interaction was generated by using Cytoscape version 3.9.1. It can predict the significant target protein. Then the analysis of the Gene Ontology (GO) and KEGG pathways was conducted to generate the genes and components that play a role in COVID-19. The result of this study was 30 nodes representing significant proteins, namely NF-κβ, IL-6, IL-6R, IL-2RA, IL-2, IFN2, C3, TRAF6, IFNAR1, and DOX58. From the KEGG pathway, we obtained the result that NF-κβ has a role in the production of proinflammatory cytokines, which play a role in the COVID-19 cytokine storm. It is an important factor for macrophage transcription; therefore, it will induce inflammatory gene expression that encodes proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-1β. In conclusion, the blocking of NF-κβ is the prediction mechanism of the M. cajuputi extract as an anti-inflammation agent for COVID-19.

Keywords: antiinflammation, COVID-19, cytokine storm, NF-κβ, M. cajuputi

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Authors: Antonio Monteiro, Jorge Azevedo, Severiano Silva, Alfredo Teixeira

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The objective of this study was to compare the carcass and in vivo real-time ultrasound measurements (RTU) and their capacity to predict the composition of Serrana goats up to 40% of maturity. Twenty one females (11.1 ± 3.97 kg) and Twenty one males (15.6 ± 5.38 kg) were utilized to made in vivo measurements with a 5 MHz probe (ALOKA 500V scanner) at the 9th-10th, 10th-11th thoracic vertebrae (uT910 and uT1011, respectively), at the 1st- 2nd, 3rd-4th, and 4th-5th lumbar vertebrae (uL12, ul34 and uL45, respectively) and also at the 3rd-4th sternebrae (EEST). It was recorded the images of RTU measurements of Longissimus thoracis et lumborum muscle (LTL) depth (EM), width (LM), perimeter (PM), area (AM) and subcutaneous fat thickness (SFD) above the LTL, as well as the depth of tissues of the sternum (EEST) between the 3rd-4th sternebrae. All RTU images were analyzed using the ImageJ software. After slaughter, the carcasses were stored at 4 ºC for 24 h. After this period the carcasses were divided and the left half was entirely dissected into muscle, dissected fat (subcutaneous fat plus intermuscular fat) and bone. Prior to the dissection measurements equivalent to those obtained in vivo with RTU were recorded. Using the Statistica 5, correlation and regression analyses were performed. The prediction of carcass composition was achieved by stepwise regression procedure, with live weight and RTU measurements with and without transformation of variables to the same dimension. The RTU and carcass measurements, except for SFD measurements, showed high correlation (r > 0.60, P < 0.001). The RTU measurements and the live weight, showed ability to predict carcass composition on muscle (R2 = 0.99, P < 0.001), subcutaneous fat (R2 = 0.41, P < 0.001), intermuscular fat (R2 = 0.84, P < 0.001), dissected fat (R2 = 0.71, P < 0.001) and bone (R2 = 0.94, P < 0.001). The transformation of variables allowed a slight increase of precision, but with the increase in the number of variables, with the exception of subcutaneous fat prediction. In vivo measurements by RTU can be applied to predict kid goat carcass composition, from 5 measurements of RTU and the live weight.

Keywords: carcass, goats, real time, ultrasound

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Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

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Authors: Kazeem K. Adewole

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This paper presents the finite element analysis numerical investigation of the effects of the location of across-the-width lamination on the tensile properties of rectangular wires for civil engineering applications. FE analysis revealed that the presence of the mid-thickness across-the-width lamination changes the cup and cone fracture shape exhibited by the lamination-free wire to a V-shaped fracture shape with an opening at the bottom/pointed end of the V-shape at the location of the mid-thickness across-the-width lamination. FE analysis also revealed that the presence of the mid-width across-the-thickness lamination changes the cup and cone fracture shape of the lamination-free wire without an opening to a cup and cone fracture shape with an opening at the location of the mid-width across-the-thickness lamination. The FE fracture behaviour prediction approach presented in this work serves as a tool for failure analysis of wires with lamination at different orientations which cannot be conducted experimentally.

Keywords: across-the-width lamination, tensile properties, lamination location, wire

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Authors: Olivia Rachel Hwang, Yu-Hsuan Joni Shao

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Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) has been a primary treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer. However, it is associated with numerous adverse effects related to Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), including hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, heart diseases and ischemic strokes. However, complications associated with ADT for prostate cancer in Taiwan is not well documented. The purpose of this study is to utilize the data from NHIRD (National Health Insurance Research Database) to examine the trajectory changes of MetS-related complications in men receiving ADT. The risks of developing complications after the treatment were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model. Covariates including in the model were the complications before the diagnosis of prostate cancer, the age, and the year at cancer diagnosis. A total number of 17268 patients from 1997-2013 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were patients with any other types of cancer or with the existing MetS-related complications. Changes in MetS-related complications were observed among two treatment groups: 1) ADT (n=9042), and 2) non-ADT (n=8226). The ADT group appeared to have an increased risk in hypertension (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.13, P = 0.001) and hyperlipidemia (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.17, P = 0.02) when compared with non-ADT group in the multivariate Cox regression analyses. In the risk of diabetes, heart diseases, and ischemic strokes, ADT group appeared to have an increased but not significant hazard ratio. In conclusion, ADT was associated with an increased risk in hypertension and hyperlipidemia in prostate cancer patients in Taiwan. The risk of hypertension and hyperlipidemia should be considered while deciding on ADT, especially those with the known history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia.

Keywords: androgen deprivation therapy, ADT, complications, metabolic syndrome, MetS, prostate cancer

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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Authors: Uma Maheshwari V., Rajanikanth Aluvalu, Kumar Gautam

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The COVID-19 disease is a highly contagious viral infection with major worldwide health implications. The global economy suffers as a result of COVID. The spread of this pandemic disease can be slowed if positive patients are found early. COVID-19 disease prediction is beneficial for identifying patients' health problems that are at risk for COVID. Deep learning and machine learning algorithms for COVID prediction using X-rays have the potential to be extremely useful in solving the scarcity of doctors and clinicians in remote places. In this paper, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with deep layers is presented for recognizing COVID-19 patients using real-world datasets. We gathered around 6000 X-ray scan images from various sources and split them into two categories: normal and COVID-impacted. Our model examines chest X-ray images to recognize such patients. Because X-rays are commonly available and affordable, our findings show that X-ray analysis is effective in COVID diagnosis. The predictions performed well, with an average accuracy of 99% on training photographs and 88% on X-ray test images.

Keywords: deep CNN, COVID–19 analysis, feature extraction, feature map, accuracy

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Authors: Sachil Kumar, Anoop K.Verma, Uma Shankar Singh

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It’s extremely important to study postmortem interval in different causes of death since it assists in a great way in making an opinion on the exact cause of death following such incident often times. With diligent knowledge of the interval one could really say as an expert that the cause of death is not feigned hence there is a great need in evaluating such death to have been at the CRIME SCENE before performing an autopsy on such body. The approach described here is based on analyzing the degradation or proteolysis of a cardiac protein in cases of deaths due to burn as a marker of time since death. Cardiac tissue samples were collected from (n=6) medico-legal autopsies, (Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology), King George’s Medical University, Lucknow India, after informed consent from the relatives and studied post-mortem degradation by incubation of the cardiac tissue at room temperature (20±2 OC) for different time periods (~7.30, 18.20, 30.30, 41.20, 41.40, 54.30, 65.20, and 88.40 Hours). The cases included were the subjects of burn without any prior history of disease who died in the hospital and their exact time of death was known. The analysis involved extraction of the protein, separation by denaturing gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and visualization by Western blot using cTnT specific monoclonal antibodies. The area of the bands within a lane was quantified by scanning and digitizing the image using Gel Doc. As time postmortem progresses the intact cTnT band degrades to fragments that are easily detected by the monoclonal antibodies. A decreasing trend in the level of cTnT (% of intact) was found as the PM hours increased. A significant difference was observed between <15 h and other PM hours (p<0.01). Significant difference in cTnT level (% of intact) was also observed between 16-25 h and 56-65 h & >75 h (p<0.01). Western blot data clearly showed the intact protein at 42 kDa, three major (28 kDa, 30kDa, 10kDa) fragments, three additional minor fragments (12 kDa, 14kDa, and 15 kDa) and formation of low molecular weight fragments. Overall, both PMI and cardiac tissue of burned corpse had a statistically significant effect where the greatest amount of protein breakdown was observed within the first 41.40 Hrs and after it intact protein slowly disappears. If the percent intact cTnT is calculated from the total area integrated within a Western blot lane, then the percent intact cTnT shows a pseudo-first order relationship when plotted against the time postmortem. A strong significant positive correlation was found between cTnT and PM hours (r=0.87, p=0.0001). The regression analysis showed a good variability explained (R2=0.768) The post-mortem Troponin-T fragmentation observed in this study reveals a sequential, time-dependent process with the potential for use as a predictor of PMI in cases of burning.

Keywords: burn, degradation, postmortem interval, troponin-T

Procedia PDF Downloads 451