Search results for: empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction

Authors: Jacinta Musyoka, Wesley Too

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Cervical cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Kenya and the second most common cancer among women, yet preventable following prevention strategies put in place, which includes vaccination with Human Papilloma Virus Vaccine (HPPV) among the young adolescent girls. Kenya has the highest burden of cervical cancer and the leading cause of death among women of reproductive age and is a known frequent type of cancer amongst women. This is expected to double by 2025 if the necessary steps are not taken, which include vaccinating girls between the ages of 9 and 14 and screening women. Parental decision is critical in ensuring that their daughters receive this vaccine. Hence this study sought to establish parental willingness and factors associate with the acceptability to vaccine adolescent daughters against the human papilloma virus for cervical cancer prevention in Machakos County, Eastern Region of Kenya. Method: Cross-sectional study design utilizing a mixed methods approach was used to collect data from Nguluni Health Centre in Machakos County; Matungulu sub-county, Kenya. This study targeted all parents of adolescent girls seeking health care services in the Matungulu sub-county area who were aged 18 years and above. A total of 220 parents with adolescent girls aged 10-14 years were enrolled into the study after informed consent were sought. All ethical considerations were observed. Quantitative data were analyzed using Multivariate regression analysis, and thematic analysis was used for qualitative data related to perceptions of parents on HPVV. Results, conclusions, and recommendations- ongoing. We expect to report findings and articulate contributions based on the study findings in due course before October 2022

Keywords: adolescents, human papilloma virus, kenya, parents

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Authors: Margarita Gáfaro, Karelys Guzmán, Paola Poveda

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This paper establishes the theoretical aspects that explain the barriers to accessing credit for small agricultural producers in developing countries and identifies successful policy experiences to mitigate them. We will test two hypotheses. The first one is that information asymmetries, high transaction costs and high-risk exposure limit the supply of credit to small agricultural producers in developing countries. The second hypothesis is that low levels of financial education and productivity and high uncertainty about the returns of agricultural activity limit the demand for credit. To test these hypotheses, a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on access to rural credit in developing countries will be carried out. The first part of this review focuses on theoretical models that incorporate information asymmetries in the credit market and analyzes the interaction between these asymmetries and the characteristics of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Some of the characteristics we will focus on are the absence of collateral, the underdevelopment of the judicial systems and insurance markets, and the high dependence on climatic factors of production technologies. The second part of this review focuses on the determinants of credit demand by small agricultural producers, including the profitability of productive projects, security conditions, risk aversion or loss, financial education, and cognitive biases, among others. There are policies that focus on resolving these supply and demand constraints and managing to improve credit access. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to present a review of effective policies that have promoted access to credit for smallholders in the world. For this, information available in policy documents will be collected. This information will be complemented by interviews with officials in charge of the design and execution of these policies in a subset of selected countries. The information collected will be analyzed in light of the conceptual framework proposed in the first two parts of this section. The barriers to access to credit that each policy attempts to resolve and the factors that could explain its effectiveness will be identified.

Keywords: agricultural economics, credit access, smallholder, developing countries

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Authors: Tyler T. Procko, Steve Collins

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New features in .NET (6 and above) permit streamlined access to information residing in JSON-capable relational databases, such as SQL Server (2016 and above). Traditional methods of data access now comparatively involve unnecessary steps which compromise system performance. This work posits that the established ORM (Object Relational Mapping) based methods of data access in applications and APIs result in common issues, e.g., object-relational impedance mismatch. Recent developments in C# and .NET Core combined with a framework of modern SQL Server coding conventions have allowed better technical solutions to the problem. As an amelioration, this work details the language features and coding conventions which enable this streamlined approach, resulting in an open-source .NET library implementation called Codeless Data Access (CODA). Canonical approaches rely on ad-hoc mapping code to perform type conversions between the client and back-end database; with CODA, no mapping code is needed, as JSON is freely mapped to SQL and vice versa. CODA streamlines API data access by improving on three aspects of immediate concern to web developers, database engineers and cybersecurity professionals: Simplicity, Speed and Security. Simplicity is engendered by cutting out the “middleman” steps, effectively making API data access a whitebox, whereas traditional methods are blackbox. Speed is improved because of the fewer translational steps taken, and security is improved as attack surfaces are minimized. An empirical evaluation of the speed of the CODA approach in comparison to ORM approaches ] is provided and demonstrates that the CODA approach is significantly faster. CODA presents substantial benefits for API developer workflows by simplifying data access, resulting in better speed and security and allowing developers to focus on productive development rather than being mired in data access code. Future considerations include a generalization of the CODA method and extension outside of the .NET ecosystem to other programming languages.

Keywords: API data access, database, JSON, .NET core, SQL server

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Authors: Fan Wei, Tang Yipeng

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The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 has been raging around the world, which has severely affected people's work and life. In today's post-pandemic era, although the pandemic has been effectively controlled, people still need to maintain social distancing at all times to prevent the further spread of the virus. Based on this, social distancing in the context of the pandemic has aroused widespread attention from scholars. At present, most studies exploring the influencing factors of social distancing are studying the negative impact of social distancing on the physical and mental state of special groups from the inter-individual level, and their more focus on the forced complete social distancing during the severe period of the pandemic. Few studies have focused on the impact of social distancing on working groups in the post-pandemic era from the within-individual level. In order to explore this problem, this paper constructs a cross-level moderating model based on resource conservation theory from the perspective of psychological resources. A total of 81 subjects were recruited to fill in the three-stage questionnaires each day for 10 working days, and 661valid questionnaires were finally obtained. Through the empirical tests, the following conclusions were finally obtained: (1) At the within-individual level, daily social distancing is positively correlated with the second day’s recovery, and the individual’s low sociability regulates the relationship between social distancing and recovery. The indirect effect of daily social distancing through recovery has positive relationship employees’ work engagement and work-goal progress only when the individual has low sociability. For individuals with high sociability, none of these paths are significant. (2) At the within-individual level, there is a significant relationship between individual's recovery and work engagement and work-goal progress, indicating that the recovery of resources can produce positive work outcomes. According to the results, this study believes that in the post-pandemic era, social distancing can not only effectively prevent and control the pandemic but also have positive impacts. Employees can use the time and energy originally saved for social activities through social distancing to invest in things that can provide resources and help them recover.

Keywords: social distancing, recovery, work engagement, work goal progress, sociability

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Authors: Çisem Gündüz Arabacı

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Deliberation has been seen one of the most important components of democratic ideals especially since liberal democratic attributions have been under fire. Deliberative democracy advocates that people should participate in collective decision-making processes by other mechanisms rather than conventional ones in order to reach legitimate decisions. Deliberative democratic theory makes emphasis on deliberative communication between people and encourages them not to merely express their political opinions (through surveys and referendum) but to form those opinions through public debates. This paper focuses on deliberative democratic visions of Gezi Park Public Forums by taking deliberative democracy as theoretical basis and examining Gezi Park Public Forums in the light of core elements of deliberative democracy. Gezi Movement started on 28 May 2013 in İstanbul as a reaction to local government's revision plans for Taksim Gezi Park, spread throughout the country and created new zones in public sphere which are called Public Park Forums. During the summer of 2013, especially in İstanbul but also in other cities, people gathered in public parks, discussed and took collective decisions concerning actions which they will take. It is worth to mention that since 3 and half years some Public Park Forums are still continuing their meetings regularly in city of İzmir. This paper analyzes four 'Public Park Forums' in İzmir which are called Bornova Public Forum; Karşıyaka Public Forum, Foça Public Forum and Güzelyalı Public Forum. These Forums are under investigation in terms of their understanding of democracy and the values that support that understanding. Participant observation and in-depth interview methods are being used as research methods. Core element of deliberative democracy are being collected under three main category: common interest versus private interest, membership, rational argument and these values are being questioning within one of each Forum in order to draw an overall picture and also make comparison between them. Discourse analysis is being used in order to examine empirical data and paper aims to reveal how participants of public forums perceive deliberative democratic values and whether they give weight to these values.

Keywords: deliberative democracy, Gezi Park movement, public forums, social movement

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Authors: Tahani Hallek, Dhaou Akrout, Riadh Ahmadi, Mabrouk Montacer

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The present work is an organic geochemical study of the Fahdene Formation outcrops at the Mahjouba region belonging to the Eastern part of the Kalaat Senan structure in northwestern Tunisia (the Kef-Tedjerouine area). The analytical study of the organic content of the samples collected, allowed us to point out that the Formation in question is characterized by an average to good oil potential. This fossilized organic matter has a mixed origin (type II and III), as indicated by the relatively high values of hydrogen index. This origin is confirmed by the C29 Steranes abundance and also by tricyclic terpanes C19/(C19+C23) and tetracyclic terpanes C24/(C24+C23) ratios, that suggest a marine environment of deposit with high plants contribution. We have demonstrated that the heterogeneity of organic matter between the marine aspect, confirmed by the presence of foraminifera, and the continental contribution, is the result of an episodic anomaly in relation to the sequential stratigraphy. Given that the study area is defined as an outer platform forming a transition zone between a stable continental domain to the south and a deep basin to the north, we have explained the continental contribution by successive forced regressions, having blocked the albian transgression, allowing the installation of the lowstand system tracts. This aspect is represented by the incised valleys filling, in direct contact with the pelagic and deep sea facies. Consequently, the Fahdene Formation, in the Kef-Tedjerouine area, consists of transgressive system tracts (TST) brutally truncated by extras of continental progradation; resulting in a mixed influence deposition having retained a heterogeneous organic material.

Keywords: molecular geochemistry, biomarkers, forced regression, deposit environment, mixed origin, Northern Tunisia

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Authors: Leonore Robieux, Franck Zenasni, Marc Pocard, Clarisse Eveno

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Empirical data in health psychology studies show the necessity to consider the doctor-patient communication and its positive impact on outcomes such as patients’ satisfaction, treatment adherence, physical and psychological wellbeing. In this line, the present research aims to define the role and determinants of an effective doctor–patient communication during the treatment of patients with serious illness (peritoneal carcinomatosis). We carried out a prospective longitudinal study including patients treated for peritoneal carcinomatosis of various origins. From November 2016, to date, data were collected using validated questionnaires at two times of evaluation: one month before the surgery (T0) and one month after (T1). Thus, patients reported their (a) anxiety and depression levels, (b) standardized and individualized quality of life and (c) how they perceived communication, attitude and empathy of the surgeon. 105 volunteer patients (Mean age = 58.18 years, SD = 10.24, 62.2% female) participated to the study. PC arose from rare diseases (14%), colorectal (38%), eso-gastric (24%) and ovarian (8%) cancer. Three groups are defined according to the severity of their pathology and the treatment offered to them: (1) important surgical treatment with the goal of healing (53%), (2) repeated palliative surgical treatment (17%), and (3) the patients recused for surgical treatment, only palliative approach (30%). Results are presented according to Baron and Kenny recommendations. The regressions analyses show that only depression and anxiety are sensitive to the communication and empathy of surgeon. The main results show that a good communication and high level of empathy at T0 and T1 limit depression and anxiety of the patients in T1. Results also indicate that the severity of the disease modulates this positive impact of communication: better is the communication the less are the level of depression and anxiety of the patients. This effect is higher for patients treated for the more severe disease. These results confirm that, even in the case severe disease a good communication between patient and physician remains a significant factor in promoting the well-being of patients. More specific training need to be developed to promote empathic care.

Keywords: clinical empathy, determinants, healthcare, psychological wellbeing

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Authors: ZhenlinJu, Christopher P. Vellano, RehanAkbani, Yiling Lu, Gordon B. Mills

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The epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a process by which epithelial cells acquire mesenchymal characteristics, such as profound disruption of cell-cell junctions, loss of apical-basolateral polarity, and extensive reorganization of the actin cytoskeleton to induce cell motility and invasion. A hallmark of EMT is its capacity to promote metastasis, which is due in part to activation of several transcription factors and subsequent downregulation of E-cadherin. Unfortunately, current approaches have yet to uncover robust protein marker sets that can classify tumors as possessing strong EMT signatures. In this study, we utilize reverse phase protein array (RPPA) data and consensus clustering methods to successfully classify a subset of cervical squamous cell carcinoma and endocervical adenocarcinoma (CESC) tumors into an EMT protein signaling group (EMT group). The overall survival (OS) of patients in the EMT group is significantly worse than those in the other Hormone and PI3K/AKT signaling groups. In addition to a shrinkage and selection method for linear regression (LASSO), we applied training/test set and Monte Carlo resampling approaches to identify a set of protein markers that predicts the EMT status of CESC tumors. We fit a logistic model to these protein markers and developed a classifier, which was fixed in the training set and validated in the testing set. The classifier robustly predicted the EMT status of the testing set with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.975 by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This method not only identifies a core set of proteins underlying an EMT signature in cervical cancer patients, but also provides a tool to examine protein predictors that drive molecular subtypes in other diseases.

Keywords: consensus clustering, TCGA CESC, Silhouette, Monte Carlo LASSO

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Authors: Ilaha Rzayeva, Emin Alasgarov, Orkhan Karim-Zada

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This study attempts to consider the linkage between management and computer sciences in order to develop the software named “IntelSymb” as a demo application to prove data analysis of non-energy* fields’ diversification, which will positively influence on energy dependency mitigation of countries. Afterward, we analyzed 18 years of economic fields of development (5 sectors) of 13 countries by identifying which patterns mostly prevailed and which can be dominant in the near future. To make our analysis solid and plausible, as a future work, we suggest developing a gateway or interface, which will be connected to all available on-line data bases (WB, UN, OECD, U.S. EIA) for countries’ analysis by fields. Sample data consists of energy (TPES and energy import indicators) and non-energy industries’ (Main Science and Technology Indicator, Internet user index, and Sales and Production indicators) statistics from 13 OECD countries over 18 years (1995-2012). Our results show that the diversification of non-energy industries can have a positive effect on energy sector dependency (energy consumption and import dependence on crude oil) deceleration. These results can provide empirical and practical support for energy and non-energy industries diversification’ policies, such as the promoting of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), services and innovative technologies efficiency and management, in other OECD and non-OECD member states with similar energy utilization patterns and policies. Industries, including the ICT sector, generate around 4 percent of total GHG, but this is much higher — around 14 percent — if indirect energy use is included. The ICT sector itself (excluding the broadcasting sector) contributes approximately 2 percent of global GHG emissions, at just under 1 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq). Ergo, this can be a good example and lesson for countries which are dependent and independent on energy, and mainly emerging oil-based economies, as well as to motivate non-energy industries diversification in order to be ready to energy crisis and to be able to face any economic crisis as well.

Keywords: energy policy, energy diversification, “IntelSymb” software, renewable energy

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Authors: Alemayehu Agizew Woldeamanuel, Mekonnen Maschal Tarekegn, Raj Mohan Balakrishina

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Composting is one of the conventional techniques adopted for organic waste management, but the practice is very limited in emerging cities despite the most of the waste generated is organic. This paper aims to examine the viability of composting for organic waste management in the emerging city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by addressing the composting practice, quality of compost, and application of compost in urban agriculture. The study collects data using compost laboratory testing and urban farm households’ survey and uses descriptive analysis on the state of compost production and application, physicochemical analysis of the compost samples, and regression analysis on the urban farmer’s willingness to pay for compost. The findings of the study indicated that there is composting practice at a small scale, most of the producers use unsorted feedstock materials, aerobic composting is dominantly used, and the maturation period ranged from four to ten weeks. The carbon content of the compost ranges from 30.8 to 277.1 due to the type of feedstock applied, and this surpasses the ideal proportions for C:N ratio. The total nitrogen, pH, organic matter, and moisture content are relatively optimal. The levels of heavy metals measured for Mn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Cr⁶⁺ in the compost samples are also insignificant. In the urban agriculture sector, chemical fertilizer is the dominant type of soil input in crop productions but vegetable producers use a combination of both fertilizer and other organic inputs, including compost. The willingness to pay for compost depends on income, household size, gender, type of soil inputs, monitoring soil fertility, the main product of the farm, farming method and farm ownership. Finally, this study recommends the need for collaboration among stakeholders’ along the value chain of waste, awareness creation on the benefits of composting and addressing challenges faced by both compost producers and users.

Keywords: composting, emerging city, organic waste management, urban agriculture

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Authors: Atlal El-Assaad

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Viruses change with time through mutations and result in new variants that may persist or disappear. A Mutation refers to an actual change in the virus genetic sequence, and a variant is a viral genome that may contain one or more mutations. Critical mutations may cause the virus to be more transmissible, with high disease severity, and more vulnerable to diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. Thus, variants carrying such mutations may increase the risk to human health and are considered variants of concern (VOC). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) - the contagious in humans, positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus that caused coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - has been studied thoroughly, and several variants were revealed across the world with their corresponding mutations. SARS-CoV-2 has four structural proteins, known as the S (spike), E (envelope), M (membrane), and N (nucleocapsid) proteins, but prior study and vaccines development focused on genetic mutations in the S protein due to its vital role in allowing the virus to attach and fuse with the membrane of a host cell. Specifically, subunit S1 catalyzes attachment, whereas subunit S2 mediates fusion. In this perspective, we studied all charged amino acid mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 viral spike protein S1 when bound to Antibody CC12.1 in a crystal structure and assessed the effect of different mutations. We generated all missense mutants of SARS-CoV-2 protein amino acids (AAs) within the SARS-CoV-2:CC12.1 complex model. To generate the family of mutants in each complex, we mutated every charged amino acid with all other charged amino acids (Lysine (K), Arginine (R), Glutamic Acid (E), and Aspartic Acid (D)) and studied the new binding of the complex after each mutation. We applied Poisson-Boltzmann electrostatic calculations feeding into free energy calculations to determine the effect of each mutation on binding. After analyzing our data, we identified charged amino acids keys for binding. Furthermore, we validated those findings against published experimental genetic data. Our results are the first to propose in silico potential life-threatening mutations of SARS-CoV-2 beyond the present mutations found in the five common variants found worldwide.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, variant, ionic amino acid, protein-protein interactions, missense mutation, AESOP

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Phillips–Perron (PP) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests negative long-run causalities from consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil, coal and natural gas to GDP. Conversely, positive impacts of CO2 emissions and electricity consumption on GDP are found to be significant in Turkey during the period. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. There exists a positive unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to natural gas consumption, while there exists a negative unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to electricity consumption. Moreover, GDP has a negative effect on electricity consumption in Turkey in the short run. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output but the associations can to be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Turkey over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

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Authors: Yi Shan Cheng, Ya Hui Yeh, Hsiao Wen Hsu

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Delirium is an acute state of confusion, which is mainly the result of the interaction of many factors, including: age>65 years, comorbidity, cognitive function and visual/auditory impairment, dehydration, pain, sleep disorder, pipeline retention, general anesthesia and major surgery… etc. Researches show the prevalence of delirium in hospitalized elderly patients over 50%. If it doesn't improve in time, may cause cognitive decline or impairment, not only prolong the length of hospital stay but also increase mortality. Some studies have shown that multiple nonpharmacological interventions are the most effective and common strategies, which are reorientation, early mobility, promoting sleep and nutritional support (including water intake), could improve or prevent delirium in the hospitalized elderly. In Taiwan, only one research to compare the delirium incidence of the older patients who have received orthopedic surgery between multi-nonpharmacological interventions and general routine care. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to address the prevention or improvement of delirium incidence density in medical hospitalized elderly, provide clinical nurses as a reference for clinical implementation, and develop follow-up related research. This study is a quasi-experimental design using purposive sampling. Samples are from two wards: the geriatric ward and the general medicine ward at a medical center in central Taiwan. The sample size estimated at least 100, and then the data will be collected through a self-administered structured questionnaire, including: demographic and professional evaluation items. Case recruiting from 5/13/2023. The research results will be analyzed by SPSS for Windows 22.0 software, including descriptive statistics and inferential statistics: logistic regression、Generalized Estimating Equation(GEE)、multivariate analysis of variance(MANOVA).

Keywords: multiple nonpharmacological interventions, hospitalized elderly, delirium incidence, delirium

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Authors: Rafal Bryk, Holger Schmidt, Thomas Mull, Ingo Ganzmann, Oliver Herbst

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Prediction of the two-phase water mixture level during fast depressurization of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) resulting from an accident scenario is an important issue from the view point of the reactor safety. Since the level swell may influence the behavior of some passive safety systems, it has been recognized that an assumption which at the beginning may be considered as a conservative one, not necessary leads to a conservative result. This paper discusses outcomes obtained during simulations of the water dynamics and heat transfer during sudden depressurization of a vessel filled up to a certain level with liquid water under saturation conditions and with the rest of the vessel occupied by saturated steam. In case of the pressure decrease e.g. due to the main steam line break, the liquid water evaporates abruptly, being a reason thereby, of strong transients in the vessel. These transients and the sudden emergence of void in the region occupied at the beginning by liquid, cause elevation of the two-phase mixture. In this work, several models calculating the water collapse and swell levels are presented and validated against experimental data. Each of the models uses different approach to calculate void fraction. The object-oriented models were developed with the Modelica modelling language and the OpenModelica environment. The models represent the RPV of the Integral Test Facility Karlstein (INKA) – a dedicated test rig for simulation of KERENA – a new Boiling Water Reactor design of Framatome. The models are based on dynamic mass and energy equations. They are divided into several dynamic volumes in each of which, the fluid may be single-phase liquid, steam or a two-phase mixture. The heat transfer between the wall of the vessel and the fluid is taken into account. Additional heat flow rate may be applied to the first volume of the vessel in order to simulate the decay heat of the reactor core in a similar manner as it is simulated at INKA. The comparison of the simulations results against the reference data shows a good agreement.

Keywords: boiling water reactor, level swell, Modelica, RPV depressurization, thermal-hydraulics

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Authors: Jiajia Peng, Jianqing Qiu, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: Insufficient sleep has been focused on as a public health epidemic. However, a comprehensive analysis of disease trajectory associated with unhealthy sleep habits is still unclear currently. Objective: This study sought to comprehensively clarify the disease's trajectory in relation to the overall poor sleep pattern and unhealthy sleep behaviors separately. Methods: 410,682 participants with available information on sleep behaviors were collected from the UK Biobank at the baseline visit (2006-2010). These participants were classified as having high- and low risk of each sleep behavior and were followed from 2006 to 2020 to identify the increased risks of diseases. We used Cox regression to estimate the associations of high-risk sleep behaviors with the elevated risks of diseases, and further established diseases trajectory using significant diseases. The low-risk unhealthy sleep behaviors were defined as the reference. Thereafter, we also examined the trajectory of diseases linked with the overall poor sleep pattern by combining all of these unhealthy sleep behaviors. To visualize the disease's trajectory, network analysis was used for presenting these trajectories. Results: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we noted 12 medical conditions in relation to unhealthy sleep behaviors and the overall poor sleep pattern among 410,682 participants with a median age of 58.0 years. The majority of participants had unhealthy sleep behaviors; in particular, 75.62% with frequent sleeplessness, and 72.12% had abnormal sleep durations. Besides, a total of 16,032 individuals with an overall poor sleep pattern were identified. In general, three major disease clusters were associated with overall poor sleep status and unhealthy sleep behaviors according to the disease trajectory and network analysis, mainly in the digestive, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, and cardiometabolic systems. Of note, two circularity disease pairs (I25→I20 and I48→I50) showed the highest risks following these unhealthy sleep habits. Additionally, significant differences in disease trajectories were observed in relation to sex and sleep medication among individuals with poor sleep status. Conclusions: We identified the major disease clusters and high-risk diseases following participants with overall poor sleep health and unhealthy sleep behaviors, respectively. It may suggest the need to investigate the potential interventions targeting these key pathways.

Keywords: sleep, poor sleep, unhealthy sleep behaviors, disease trajectory, UK Biobank

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Authors: Farah Naja, Nahla Hwalla, Leila Itani, Shirine Baalbaki, Abla Sibai, Lara Nasreddine

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Purpose: To propose an index for assessing adherence to a Middle-Eastern version of the Mediterranean diet as represented by the traditional Lebanese Mediterranean diet (LMD), to evaluate the association between the LMD and selected European Mediterranean diets (EMD); to examine socio-demographic and lifestyle correlates of adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) among Lebanese adults. Methods: Using nationally representative dietary intake data of Lebanese adults, an index to measure adherence to the LMD was derived. The choice of food groups used for calculating the LMD score was based on results of previous factor analyses conducted on the same dataset. These food groups included fruits, vegetables, legumes, olive oil, burghol, dairy products, starchy vegetables, dried fruits, and eggs. Using Pearson’s correlation and scores tertiles distributions agreement, the derived LMD index was compared to previously published EMD indexes from Greece, Spain, Italy, France, and EPIC. Results: Fruits, vegetables and olive oil were common denominators to all MD scores. Food groups, specific to the LMD, included burghol and dried fruits. The LMD score significantly correlated with the EMD scores, while being closest to the Italian (r=0.57) and farthest from the French (r=0.21). Percent agreement between scores’ tertile distributions and Kappa statistics confirmed these findings. Multivariate linear regression showed that older age, higher educational, female gender, and healthy lifestyle characteristics were associated with increased adherence to all MD studied. Conclusion: A novel LMD index was proposed to characterize Mediterranean diet in Lebanon, complementing international efforts to characterize the MD and its association with disease risk.

Keywords: mediterranean diet, adherence, Middle-East, Lebanon, Europe

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Authors: J. Tochukwu Omenma

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Buzzword in Nigeria is that democracy has “come to stay”. Politicians in their usual euphoria consider democracy as already consolidated in the country. Politicians linked this assumption to three fundamental indicators – (a) multiparty system; (b) regular elections and (c) absence of military coup after 15 years of democracy in Nigeria. Beyond this assumption, we intend to empirically verify these claims and assumptions, by relying on Huntington’s conceptualization of democratic consolidation. Though, Huntington asserts that multipartism, regular elections and absence of any major obstacle leading to reversal of democracy are significant indicators of democratic consolidation, but the presence of those indicators must result to alternation of executive power for democratic consolidation to occur. In other words, regular conduct of election and existence of multiple political parties are not enough for democratic consolidation, rather free and fair elections. Past elections were characterized of massive fraud and irregularities casting doubts on integrity of electoral management body (EMB) to conduct free and fair elections in Nigeria. There are three existing perspectives that have offered responses to the emasculation of independence of EMB. One is a more popular position indicating that the incumbent party, more than the opposition party, influence the EMB activities with the aim of rigging elections; the other is a more radical perspective that suggests that weakening of EMB power is more associated with the weakest party than with the incumbent; and the last, is that godfather(s) are in direct control of EMB members thereby controlling the process of electoral process to the advantage of the godfather(s). With empirical evidence sourced from the reports of independent election monitors, (European Union, Election Observation Mission in Nigeria) this paper shows at different electoral periods that, in terms of influencing election outcomes, the incumbent and godfather have been more associated with influencing election results than the opposition. The existing nature of executive power in Nigeria provides a plausible explanation for the incumbent’s overbearing influence thereby limiting opportunity for free and fair elections and by extension undermining the process of democratic consolidation in Nigeria.

Keywords: political party, democracy, democratic consolidation, election, godfatherism

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Authors: Mohd Ayyub Khan, Nadeem Akhtar

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Due to recent advances in wireless communication technologies and hand-held devices, there is a huge demand for video-based applications such as video surveillance, video conferencing, remote surgery, Digital Video Broadcast (DVB), IPTV, online learning courses, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, Interactive Video Games. However, the raw videos posses very high bandwidth which makes the compression a must before its transmission over the wireless channels. The High Efficiency Video Codec (HEVC) (also called H.265) is latest state-of-the-art video coding standard developed by the Joint effort of ITU-T and ISO/IEC teams. HEVC is targeted for high resolution videos such as 4K or 8K resolutions that can fulfil the recent demands for video services. The compression ratio achieved by the HEVC is twice as compared to its predecessor H.264/AVC for same quality level. The compression efficiency is generally increased by removing more correlation between the frames/pixels using complex techniques such as extensive intra and inter prediction techniques. As more correlation is removed, the chances of interdependency among coded bits increases. Thus, bit errors may have large effect on the reconstructed video. Sometimes even single bit error can lead to catastrophic failure of the reconstructed video. In this paper, we study the performance of HEVC bitstream over additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. Moreover, HEVC over Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) combined with forward error correction (FEC) schemes are also explored over the noisy channel. The video will be encoded using HEVC, and the coded bitstream is channel coded to provide some redundancies. The channel coded bitstream is then modulated using QAM and transmitted over AWGN channel. At the receiver, the symbols are demodulated and channel decoded to obtain the video bitstream. The bitstream is then used to reconstruct the video using HEVC decoder. It is observed that as the signal to noise ratio of channel is decreased the quality of the reconstructed video decreases drastically. Using proper FEC codes, the quality of the video can be restored up to certain extent. Thus, the performance analysis of HEVC presented in this paper may assist in designing the optimized code rate of FEC such that the quality of the reconstructed video is maximized over wireless channels.

Keywords: AWGN, forward error correction, HEVC, video coding, QAM

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Authors: Karina Lõbus, Silver Muld, Kadri Kööp, Mare Tupits

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Aim: The aim of the research is to describe the experiences and needs of fathers’ of children with cancer in coping with the child's disease. Background: Today, about 80% of children diagnosed with malignancy in developed countries survive. Despite the positive statistics, recovery is not always certain, treatment is often very intensive and long-term. Cancer is affecting an increasing number of the population, which is increasing the demand for quality care, but the nature of expected care is currently unclear. This topic is important for the development of professional practice, as nurses complain that their knowledge to deal with the relatives of a patient with a difficult diagnosis is limited and would therefore like additional information to deal with the situation. Design: Qualitative, empirical, descriptive research. Method: The data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analysed by inductive content analysis method. Interviews were conducted during Autumn 2020. 4 subjects participated in the research. Results and Conclusions: The thesis revealed that fathers had different experiences and needs in dealing with the child's illness. Fathers' experiences of coping with child's diseases encompassed experiences with information, social relationships, healthcare, changes in personal health and experiences regarding the child. Regarding information, the respondents pointed out bad experiences with the availability of information and the ability to convey the necessary information. Experiences regarding social relationships included experiences with relatives and strangers. Regarding healthcare, fathers mentioned experiences related to the child's health and healthcare professionals. In regards to personal health, fathers pointed out negative changes in their mental and physical health. In relation to the child, the subjects revealed experiences regarding changed values, way of life and raising the child. According to the research, fathers’ needs in relation to dealing with child's cancer included material, social, and spiritual needs. In regard to material needs, fathers pointed out the need for state assistance and the needs related to the surrounding environment. The needs concerning social belonging involved needs for a driving force and involvement in the treatment process. Regarding spiritual needs, fathers expressed mixed feelings towards the need for outside and professional help.

Keywords: father, coping, cancer, child, experience, need

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Authors: Ahmed Abdulrahman, Jalal Foroozesh

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CO₂ based enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques have gained massive attention from major oil firms since they resolve the industry's two main concerns of CO₂ contribution to the greenhouse effect and the declined oil production. Carbonated water injection (CWI) is a promising EOR technique that promotes safe and economic CO₂ storage; moreover, it mitigates the pitfalls of CO₂ injection, which include low sweep efficiency, early CO₂ breakthrough, and the risk of CO₂ leakage in fractured formations. One of the main challenges that hinder the wide adoption of this EOR technique is the complexity of accurate modeling of the kinetics of CO₂ mass transfer. The mechanisms of CO₂ mass transfer during CWI include the slow and gradual cross-phase CO₂ diffusion from carbonated water (CW) to the oil phase and the CO₂ dispersion (within phase diffusion and mechanical mixing), which affects the oil physical properties and the spatial spreading of CO₂ inside the reservoir. A 2D non-equilibrium compositional simulator has been developed using a fully implicit finite difference approximation. The material balance term (k) was added to the governing equation to account for the slow cross-phase diffusion of CO₂ from CW to the oil within the gird cell. Also, longitudinal and transverse dispersion coefficients have been added to account for CO₂ spatial distribution inside the oil phase. The CO₂-oil diffusion coefficient was calculated using the Sigmund correlation, while a scale-dependent dispersivity was used to calculate CO₂ mechanical mixing. It was found that the CO₂-oil diffusion mechanism has a minor impact on oil recovery, but it tends to increase the amount of CO₂ stored inside the formation and slightly alters the residual oil properties. On the other hand, the mechanical mixing mechanism has a huge impact on CO₂ spatial spreading (accurate prediction of CO₂ production) and the noticeable change in oil physical properties tends to increase the recovery factor. A sensitivity analysis has been done to investigate the effect of formation heterogeneity (porosity, permeability) and injection rate, it was found that the formation heterogeneity tends to increase CO₂ dispersion coefficients, and a low injection rate should be implemented during CWI.

Keywords: CO₂ mass transfer, carbonated water injection, CO₂ dispersion, CO₂ diffusion, cross phase CO₂ diffusion, within phase CO2 diffusion, CO₂ mechanical mixing, non-equilibrium simulation

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Authors: Nawt Almutairi, Ramzi El-Haddadeh

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With the extensive increase in the number of online shops, loyalty becomes the most purpose for e-retailers by which they can maintain their exit customers and regular income instead of spending large deal of money to target new segmentation. To obtain customers’ loyalty e-marketers should firstly satisfy customers by providing a high quality of services that could fulfil their demand. They have to satisfy them to trust the web-site then increase their intention to re-visit it. This study intends to investigate to what extend the elements of e-service quality presented in the literature affect customers’ satisfaction and how these influences contribute to customers’ trust and loyalty. Three dimensions of service quality are estimated. The first element is web-site interactivity, which is perceived the quality of interactive support and the accessible communications-tool. The second aspect is security/privacy, which is perceived the quality of controlling security and privacy while transaction over the web-site. The third element is web-design that perceived a pleasant user interface with visual appealing. These elements present positive effects on shoppers’ satisfaction. Thus, To examine the proposed constructs of this research, some measurements scale-items adapted from similar prior studies. Survey data collected online from Saudi customers (n=106) were utilized to test the research hypotheses. After that, the hypotheses were analyzed by using a variety of regression tools. The analytical results of this study propose that perceived quality of interactivity and security/privacy affects customers’ satisfaction. As well as trust seems to be a substantial construct that highly affects loyalty in online shopping. This study provides a developed model to obtain a simple understanding of the series of customers’ loyalty in online shopping. One construct presenting in the research model is web-design appears to be not important antecedent of satisfaction (the path to loyalty) in online shopping.

Keywords: e-service, satisfaction, trust, loyalty

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Authors: Himanshu Lal, Bipasha Ghosh, Arun Srivastava

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A pilot study of indoor air quality in terms of bioaerosol (fungus and bacteria) and few selective microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs) was carried out in different indoor sections of a library for two seasons, namely monsoon and post monsoon. Bioaerosol sampling was carried out using Anderson six stage viable sampler at a flow rate of 28.3 L/min while MVOCs were collected on activated charcoal tubes ORBOTM 90 Carboxen 564.Collected MVOCs were desorbed using carbon disulphide (CS2) and analysed by GC-FID. Microscopic identification for fungus was only carried out. Surface dust was collected by sterilised buds and cultured to identify fungal contaminants. Unlike bacterial size distribution, fungal bioaerosol concentration was found to be highest in the fourth stage in different sections of the library. In post monsoon season both fungal bioaerosol (710 to 3292cfu/m3) and bacterial bioaerosol (298 to 1475cfu/m3) were fund at much greater concentration than in monsoon. In monsoon season unlike post monsoon, I/O ratio for both the bioaerosol fractions was more than one. Rain washout could be the reason of lower outdoor concentration in monsoon season. On the contrary most of the MVOCs namely 1-hexene, 1-pentanol and 1-octen-3-ol were found in the monsoon season instead of post monsoon season with the highest being 1-hexene with 7.09µg/m3 concentration. Among the six identified fungal bioaerosol Aspergillus, Cladosporium and Penicillium were found in maximum concentration while Aspergillus niger, Curvuleria lunata, Cladosporium cladosporioides and Penicillium sp., was indentified in surface dust samples. According to regression analysis apart from environmental factors other factors also played an important role. Thus apart from outdoor infiltration and human sources, accumulated surface dust mostly on organic materials like books, wooden furniture and racks can be attributed to being one of the major sources of both fungal bioaerosols as well as MVOCs found in the library.

Keywords: bacteria, Fungi, indoor air, MVOCs

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Authors: Ferdinando Montemari, Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: flapping dynamics, flight dynamics, system identification, tilt-rotor modeling and simulation

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Authors: Gaurav Prabhudesai, Gaetan Brill

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The sun's energy source comes from a hydrogen-to-helium thermonuclear reaction, generating a temperature of about 5760 K on its outer layer. On account of this high temperature, energy is radiated by the sun, a part of which reaches the earth. This sunlight, even after losing part of its energy en-route to scattering and absorption, provides a time and space averaged solar flux of 174.7 W/m^2 striking the earth’s surface. According to one study, the solar energy striking earth’s surface in one and a half hour is more than the energy consumption that was recorded in the year 2001 from all sources combined. Thus, technology for extraction of solar energy holds much promise for solving energy crisis. Of the many technologies developed in this regard, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants with central solar tower and receiver system are very impressive because of their capability to provide a renewable energy that can be stored in the form of heat. One design of central receiver towers is an open cavity where sunlight is concentrated into by using mirrors (also called heliostats). This concentrated solar flux produces high temperature inside the cavity which can be utilized in an energy conversion process. The amount of energy captured is reduced by losses occurring at the cavity through all three modes viz., radiation to the atmosphere, conduction to the adjoining structure and convection. This study investigates the natural convection losses to the environment from the receiver. Computational fluid dynamics were used to simulate the fluid flow and heat transfer of the receiver; since no analytical solution can be obtained and no empirical correlations exist for the given geometry. The results provide guide lines for predicting natural convection losses for hexagonal and circular shaped open cavities. Additionally, correlations are given for various inclination angles and aspect ratios. These results provide methods to minimize natural convection through careful design of receiver geometry and modification of the inclination angle, and aspect ratio of the cavity.

Keywords: concentrated solar power (CSP), central receivers, natural convection, CFD, open cavities

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Nicodemus Tiendem, Arrey Mbayong Napoleon

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The heightening of competition and the quest for market share has left business persons and research communities re-examining and reinventing their competitive practices. A case in point is Porter’s generic strategy which has received a lot of criticism lately regarding its inability to maintain a company’s competitive power. This is because it focuses more on the organisation and ignores her external partners, who have a strong bearing on the company’s performance. This paper, therefore, sought to examine Porter’s generic strategies alongside supply chain quality management practices in terms of their effectiveness in building the competitive power of manufacturing companies in Cameroon. This was done with the use of primary data captured from a survey study across the supply chains of 20 manufacturing companies in Cameroon using a five-point Likert scale questionnaire. For each company, four 1st tier suppliers and four 1st tier distributors were carefully chosen to participate in the study alongside the companies themselves. In each case, attention was directed to persons involved in the supply chains of the companies. This gave a total of 180 entities comprising the supply chains of the 20 manufacturing companies involved in the study, making a total of 900 participants. The data was analysed using three multiple regression models to assess the effect of Porter’s generic strategy and supply chain quality management on the marketing performance of the companies. The findings proved that in such a competitive atmosphere, supply chain quality management is a better tool for marketing performance over Porter’s generic strategies and hence building the competitive power of the companies at all levels of the study. Although the study made use of convenience sampling, where sample selectivity biases the results, the findings aligned with many other recent developments in line with building the competitive power of manufacturing companies and thereby made the findings suitable for generalisation.

Keywords: supply chain quality management, Porter’s generic strategies, competitive power, marketing performance, manufacturing companies, Cameroon

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Authors: Adnan A. Kadi, Nasser S. Al-Shakliah, Haitham Al-Rabiah

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Zorifertinib is a novel, potent, oral, a small molecule used to treat non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). zorifertinib is an Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) inhibitor and has good blood–brain barrier permeability for (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutations. zorifertinibis currently at phase II/III clinical trials. The current research reports the characterization and identification of in vitro, in vivo and reactive intermediates of zorifertinib. Prediction of susceptible sites of metabolism and reactivity pathways (cyanide and GSH) of zorifertinib were performed by the Xenosite web predictor tool. In-vitro metabolites of zorifertinib were performed by incubation with rat liver microsomes (RLMs) and isolated perfused rat liver hepatocytes. Extraction of zorifertinib and it's in vitro metabolites from the incubation mixtures were done by protein precipitation. In vivo metabolism was done by giving a single oral dose of zorifertinib(10 mg/Kg) to Sprague Dawely rats in metabolic cages by using oral gavage. Urine was gathered and filtered at specific time intervals (0, 6, 12, 18, 24, 48, 72,96and 120 hr) from zorifertinib dosing. A similar volume of ACN was added to each collected urine sample. Both layers (organic and aqueous) were injected into liquid chromatography ion trap mass spectrometry(LC-IT-MS) to detect vivozorifertinib metabolites. N-methyl piperizine ring and quinazoline group of zorifertinib undergoe metabolism forming iminium and electro deficient conjugated system respectively, which are very reactive toward nucleophilic macromolecules. Incubation of zorifertinib with RLMs in the presence of 1.0 mM KCN and 1.0 Mm glutathione were made to check reactive metabolites as it is often responsible for toxicities associated with this drug. For in vitro metabolites there were nine in vitro phase I metabolites, four in vitro phase II metabolites, eleven reactive metabolites(three cyano adducts, five GSH conjugates metabolites, and three methoxy metabolites of zorifertinib were detected by LC-IT-MS. For in vivo metabolites, there were eight in vivo phase I, tenin vivo phase II metabolitesofzorifertinib were detected by LC-IT-MS. In vitro and in vivo phase I metabolic pathways wereN- demthylation, O-demethylation, hydroxylation, reduction, defluorination, and dechlorination. In vivo phase II metabolic reaction was direct conjugation of zorifertinib with glucuronic acid and sulphate.

Keywords: in vivo metabolites, in vitro metabolites, cyano adducts, GSH conjugate

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Authors: Katalin Kovacs

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In most forms of violence the perpetrators intend to hide their identities. Terrorism is different. Terrorist groups often take responsibility for their attacks, and consequently they reveal their identities. This unique characteristic of terrorism has been largely overlooked, and scholars are still puzzled as to why terrorist groups claim responsibility for their attacks. Certainly, the claim of responsibility is worth analysing. It would help to have a clearer picture of what terrorist groups try to achieve and how, but also to develop an understanding of the strategic planning of terrorist attacks and the message the terrorists intend to deliver. The research aims to answer the question why terrorist groups choose to claim responsibility for some of their attacks and not for others. In order to do so the claim of responsibility is considered to be a tactical choice, based on the assumption that terrorists weigh the costs and benefits of claiming responsibility. The main argument is that terrorist groups do not claim responsibility in cases when there is no tactical advantage gained from claiming responsibility. The idea that the claim of responsibility has tactical value offers the opportunity to test these assertions using a large scale empirical analysis. The claim of responsibility as a tactical choice depends on other tactical choices, such as the choice of target, the internationality of the attack, the number of victims and whether the group occupies territory or operates as an underground group. The structure of the terrorist groups and the level of decision making also affects the claim of responsibility. Terrorists on the lower level are less disciplined than the leaders. This means that the terrorists on lower levels pay less attention to the strategic objectives and engage easier in indiscriminate violence, and consequently they would less like to claim responsibility. Therefore, the research argues that terrorists, who are on a highest level of decision making would claim responsibility for the attacks as those are who takes into account the strategic objectives. As most studies on terrorism fail to provide definitions; therefore the researches are fragmented and incomparable. Separate, isolated researches do not support comprehensive thinking. It is also very important to note that there are only a few researches using quantitative methods. The aim of the research is to develop a new and comprehensive overview of the claim of responsibility based on strong quantitative evidence. By using well-established definitions and operationalisation the current research focuses on a broad range of attributes that can have tactical values in order to determine circumstances when terrorists are more likely to claim responsibility.

Keywords: claim of responsibility, leadership, tactical choice, terrorist group

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Authors: Bharat Sapkota

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Nepal is the one of the victim country of climate change. Decreasing snow line, sometimes higher and sometime non-rain fall are common phenomena in hill area. Natural flood disaster and drought is also common every year in certain place of the country. So this paper analyze the effect of climate and natural water sources for sustainability of water sanitation and hygiene of Tanahun district. It is one of the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project Western Nepal Phase-II (RWSSP-WN Phase-II) project district out of 14 project districts of western and mid-western Nepal. RWSSP-WN II is a bilateral development cooperation of governments of Nepal and Finland. Big investment is still going on in water sanitation and hygiene sector but sustainability is still a challenge throughout the country. So RWSSP-WN has started the strengthen of the capacity of local Governments to deliver services in water supply, sanitation and hygiene and its sustainability through the implementation of cross cutting approach of climate change and disaster risk reduction. The study shows that the average yield in 685 natural point sources were around 0.045 l/s in 2014 but it was twice as high in 2004 i.e. 0.09 l/s. The maximum measured yield in 2014 was 1.87 l/s, whereas, the maximum yield was 3 l/s in 2004. Likewise, spring source mean and maximum yield measured in 2014 were 0.16 l/s and 3.33 l/s respectively, whereas, mean and maximum yields in 2004 were 0.204 l/s and 3 l/s respectively. Small streams average yield measured in 2014 was 0.32 l/s with the maximum of around 4.99 l/s. In 2004, mean and maximum yields of streams were 0.485 l/s and 5 l/s respectively. The overall climate between years 2002 to 2013 and measured yield data between 2004 and 2014 shows climate as one of the causes of water source decline. The temperature is rising with pace of 0.041°C per year and rainfall is decreased by 16.8 mm/year. The Khosla’s empirical formula shows decrease of 1.7 cm/year in runoff. At present sustainability of water, sanitation and hygiene is more challenge due to sources decreasing in the district. Sanitation and hygiene total behavior change and watershed conservation as well as design and implementation of recharge pound construction are the way forward of sustainability of water, sanitation and hygiene.

Keywords: water sanitation, hygiene, sustainability, climate change

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Authors: Arif Budiman

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Any organization or company that wishes to achieve vision, mission, and goals of the organization is required to implement a performance management system or known as the Performance Management System (PMS) in every part of the whole organization. PMS is a tool to help visualize the direction and work program of the organization to achieve the goal. The challenge is PMS should not stop merely as a visualization tool to achieve the vision and mission of the organization, but PMS should also be able to create a high-performance culture that is inherent in each individual of the organization. Establishment of a culture within an organization requires the support of top leaders and also requires a system or governance that encourages every individual in the organization to be involved in any work program of the organization. Keywords of creating a high-performance culture are the formation of communication pattern involving the whole individual, either vertically or horizontally, and performed consistently and persistently by all individuals in each line of the organization. PT Pertamina (Persero) as the state-owned national energy company holds a system to internalize the culture of high performance through a system called Performance Management System Cycle (PMS Cycle). This system has 7 stages of the cycle, those are: (1) defining vision, mission and strategic plan of the company, (2) defining key performance indicator of each line and the individual (‘expectation setting conversation’), (3) defining performance target and performance agreement, (4) monitoring performance on a monthly regular basis (‘pulse check’), (5) implementing performance dialogue between leaders and staffs periodically every 3 months (‘performance dialogue’), (6) defining rewards and consequences based on the achievement of the performance of each line and the individual, and (7) calculating the final performance value achieved by each line and individual from one period of the current year. Perform PMS is a continual communication running throughout the year, that is why any three performance discussion that should be performed, include expectation setting conversations, pulse check and performance dialogue. In addition, another significant point and necessary undertaken to complete the assessment of individual performance assessment is soft competencies through 360-degree assessment by leaders, staffs, and peers.

Keywords: 360-degree assessment, expectation setting conversation, performance management system cycle, performance dialogue, pulse check

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