Search results for: the population distribution

Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Arumugam Sankaran, Arjun K., Mousumi Das

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The amount of domestic consumption and population growth is having a positive impact on economic growth and development as observed by the Harrod-Domar and endogenous growth models. The paper negates the Solow growth model which argues the population growth has a detrimental impact on per capita and steady-state growth. Unlike the Solow model, the paper observes, the per capita income growth never falls zero, and it sustains as positive. Hence, our goal here is to investigate the relationship among population, domestic consumption and economic growth of India. For this estimation, annual data from 1980-2016 has been collected from World Development Indicator and Reserve Bank of India. To know the long run as well as short-run dynamics among the variables, we have employed the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration followed by modified Wald causality test to know the direction of causality. The conclusion from cointegration and ARDL estimates reveal that there is a long run positive and statistically significant relationship among the variables under study. At the same time, the causality test shows that there is a causal relationship that exists among the variables. Hence, this calls for policies which have a long run perspective in strengthening the capabilities and entitlements of people and stabilizing domestic demand so as to serve long run and short run growth and stability of the economy.

Keywords: cointegration, consumption, economic development, population growth

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Authors: Maurizio Dapor, Isabel Abril, Pablo de Vera, Rafael Garcia-Molina

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The ionization yield of ion tracks in polymers and bio-molecular systems reaches a maximum, known as the Bragg peak, close to the end of the ion trajectories. Along the path of the ions through the materials, many electrons are generated, which produce a cascade of further ionizations and, consequently, a shower of secondary electrons. Among these, very low energy secondary electrons can produce damage in the biomolecules by dissociative electron attachment. This work deals with the calculation of the energy distribution of electrons produced by protons in a sample of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), a material that is used as a phantom for living tissues in hadron therapy. PMMA is also of relevance for microelectronics in CMOS technologies and as a photoresist mask in electron beam lithography. We present a Monte Carlo code that, starting from a realistic description of the energy distribution of the electrons ejected by protons moving through PMMA, simulates the entire cascade of generated secondary electrons. By following in detail the motion of all these electrons, we find the radial distribution of the energy that they deposit in PMMA for several initial proton energies characteristic of the Bragg peak.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, secondary electrons, energetic ions, ion-beam cancer therapy, ionization cross section, polymethylmethacrylate, proton beams, secondary electrons, radial energy distribution

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Authors: David Segun Adeniyi, Tongvwam P. J., Wekpe S., Owolagba F. E., Ofuche E., Samuels J. O., Okonkwo P.

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Background: Pediatrics HIV viral suppression remains a major challenge across Africa. In this study, we sought to establish the relationship between AMP and sustained plasma HIV viremia among a population of pediatric clients on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). We also seek to determine the prevalence of AMP among the study population. Methods: 180 pediatrics clients on ART at four (4) Comprehensive Hospitals in Jos, Nigeria, participated in this study between the months of October to December 2022. The mean age of the study participants was 13 years. Venous blood was drawn from the participants after consent was sought, and ethical approval was obtained from the Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH) Research and Ethics Committee. All samples were screened for AMP using the CareStart® HRP2 Malaria kit. The Absolute and % CD4 values of the clients were obtained using the BD Presto® CD4 Analyzer. The separated plasma samples were assayed for HIV viral load using the Roche Cobas C4800® system. Obtained data were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics. Results: From the 180 participants in this study, 12.8% (23) have AMP. 90.6% (163) were virally suppressed (<1000 copies/ml), while 9.4% (17) were virally unsuppressed (>1000 copies/ml). 11.7% (19/163) of the virally suppressed population have AMP, with mean absolute and % CD4 values of 648 and 31%, respectively. The virally suppressed population without AMP has mean absolute and % CD4 values of 719 and 32%, respectively. 24% (4/17) of the virally unsuppressed population have AMP, with mean absolute and % CD4 values of 514 and 26%, respectively. The virally unsuppressed population without AMP has mean absolute and % CD4 values of 292 and 16%, respectively. Conclusion: Our study shows that there is a high prevalence of AMP among the study populations (11.7% and 24%, respectively). The high prevalence of AMP among the virally unsuppressed with mean absolute and % CD4 values of 514 and 26% alludes to the fact that malaria co-infection with HIV fosters a dysregulated immune complex response which favors an increased HIV plasma viremia. We thus recommend the routine use of Malaria IPT in pediatric HIV clients.

Keywords: pediatrics, HIV, Malaria, viral suppression

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Authors: Rodrigo Fernandes da Silva, Daniela Maira Cardozo, Paulo Cesar Martins Alves, Sophie Françoise Derchain, Fernando Guimarães

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T-reg lymphocytes are important for the control of peripheral tolerance. They control the adaptive immune system and prevent autoimmunity through its suppressive action on CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes. The suppressive action also includes B lymphocytes, dendritic cells, monocytes/macrophages and recently, studies have shown that T-reg are also able to inhibit NK cells, therefore they exert their control of the immune response from innate to adaptive response. Most tumors express self-ligands, therefore it is believed that T-reg cells induce tolerance of the immune system, hindering the development of successful immunotherapies. T-reg cells have been linked to the suppression mechanisms of the immune response against tumors, including ovarian cancer. The goal of this study was to disclose the sub-population of the expanded CD3+ lymphocytes reported by previous studies, using the long-term culture model designed by Carlens et al 2001, to generate effector cell suspensions enriched with cytotoxic CD3-CD56+ NK cells, from PBMC of ovarian neoplasia patients. Methods and Results: Blood was collected from 12 patients with ovarian neoplasia after signed consent: 7 benign (Bng) and 5 malignant (Mlg). Mononuclear cells were separated by Ficoll-Paque gradient. Long-term culture was conducted by a 21 day culturing process with SCGM CellGro medium supplemented with anti-CD3 (10ng/ml, first 5 days), IL-2 (1000UI/ml) and FBS (10%). After 21 days of expansion, there was an increase in the population of CD3+ lymphocytes in the benign and malignant group. Within CD3+ population, there was a significant decrease in the population of CD4+ lymphocytes in the benign (median Bgn D-0=73.68%, D-21=21.05%) (p<0.05) and malignant (median Mlg D-0=64.00%, D-21=11.97%) (p < 0.01) group. Inversely, after 21 days of expansion, there was an increase in the population of CD8+ lymphocytes within the CD3+ population in the benign (median Bgn D-0=16.80%, D-21=38.56%) and malignant (median Mlg D-0=27.12%, D-21=72.58%) group. However, this increase was only significant on the malignant group (p<0.01). Within the CD3+CD4+ population, there was a significant increase (p < 0.05) in the population of T-reg lymphocytes in the benign (median Bgn D-0=9.84%, D-21=39.47%) and malignant (median Mlg D-0=3.56%, D-21=16.18%) group. Statistical analysis inter groups was performed by Kruskal-Wallis test and intra groups by Mann Whitney test. Conclusion: The CD4+ and CD8+ sub-population of CD3+ lymphocytes shifts with the culturing process. This might be due to the process of the immune system to produce a cytotoxic response. At the same time, T-reg lymphocytes increased within the CD4+ population, suggesting a modulation of the immune response towards cells of the immune system. The expansion of the T-reg population can hinder an immune response against cancer. Therefore, an immunotherapy using this expansion procedure should aim to halt the expansion of T-reg or its immunosuppresion capability.

Keywords: regulatory T cells, CD8+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, NK cell expansion

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Authors: Malinwo Estone Ayikpa

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Electric power systems are likely to operate with minimum losses and voltage meeting international standards. This is made possible generally by control actions provide by automatic voltage regulators, capacitors and transformers with on-load tap changer (OLTC). With the development of photovoltaic (PV) systems technology, their integration on distribution networks has increased over the last years to the extent of replacing the above mentioned techniques. The conventional analysis and simulation tools used for electrical networks are no longer able to take into account control actions necessary for studying distributed PV generation impact. This paper presents an unbalanced optimal power flow (OPF) model that minimizes losses with association of active power generation and reactive power control of single-phase and three-phase PV systems. Reactive power can be generated or absorbed using the available capacity and the adjustable power factor of the inverter. The unbalance OPF is formulated by current balance equations and solved by primal-dual interior point method. Several simulation cases have been carried out varying the size and location of PV systems and the results show a detailed view of the impact of PV distributed generation on distribution systems.

Keywords: distribution system, loss, photovoltaic generation, primal-dual interior point method

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Authors: Wei Zheng, Mao Ji, Zhe Hou, Meng Huang, Bo Qi

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The transformer is the key equipment of the power system. Winding deformation is one of the main transformer defects, and timely and effective detection of the transformer winding deformation can ensure the safe and stable operation of the transformer to the maximum extent. When winding deformation occurs, the size, shape and spatial position of the winding will change, which directly leads to the change of magnetic flux leakage distribution. Therefore, it is promising to study the online detection method of the transformer winding deformation based on magnetic flux leakage characteristics, in which the key step is to study the optimal placement method of magnetic flux leakage sensors inside the transformer. In this paper, a simulation model of the transformer winding deformation is established to obtain the internal magnetic flux leakage distribution of the transformer under normal operation and different winding deformation conditions, and the law of change of magnetic flux leakage distribution due to winding deformation is analyzed. The results show that different winding deformation leads to different characteristics of the magnetic flux leakage distribution. On this basis, an optimized placement of magnetic flux leakage sensors inside the transformer is proposed to provide a basis for the online detection method of transformer winding deformation based on the magnetic flux leakage characteristics.

Keywords: magnetic flux leakage, sensor placement method, transformer, winding deformation

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Authors: Dena Alhaloul

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by diverse cultures, economies, and social structures. Fertility rates in MENA have seen significant changes over time, with variations among countries and subregions. Understanding fertility patterns in this region is essential due to its impact on demographic dynamics, healthcare, labor markets, and social policies. Rising or declining fertility rates have far-reaching consequences for the region's socioeconomic development. The main thrust of this study is to comprehensively examine fertility rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It aims to understand the distribution, determinants, and temporal trends of fertility rates in MENA countries. The study seeks to provide insights into the factors influencing fertility decisions, assess how fertility rates have evolved over time, and potentially develop statistical models to characterize these trends. As for the methodology of the study, the study uses descriptive statistics to summarize and visualize fertility rate data. It also uses regression analyses to identify determinants of fertility rates as well as statistical modeling to characterize temporal trends in fertility rates. The conclusion of this study The research will contribute to a deeper understanding of fertility dynamics in the MENA region, shedding light on the distribution of fertility rates, their determinants, and historical trends.

Keywords: fertility, distribution, modeling, regression

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Authors: Tejeet Singh, Harmanjit Singh

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Creep behavior of thick-walled functionally graded cylinder consisting of AlSiC and subjected to internal pressure and high temperature has been analyzed. The functional relationship between strain rate with stress can be described by the well-known threshold stress based creep law with a stress exponent of five. The effect of imposing non-linear particle gradient on the distribution of creep stresses in the thick-walled functionally graded composite cylinder has been investigated. The study revealed that for the assumed non-linear particle distribution, the radial stress decreases throughout the cylinder, whereas the tangential, axial and effective stresses have averaging effect. The strain rates in the functionally graded composite cylinder could be reduced to significant extent by employing non-linear gradient in the distribution of reinforcement.

Keywords: functionally graded material, pressure, steady state creep, thick-cylinder

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Authors: Sharmistha Mukherjee

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Health care is the basic requirement for all. The prime question is who gets what, where and how? The unequal distribution of basic facilities do have a adverse effect on the users. The paper tries to examine health care in terms of available facilities, the health care need and how people perceive to it in a small town of Jalpaiguri in the midst of tea gardens in North Bengal. The morbidity pattern is also minutely observed with a section describing the organizational structure of health care keeping in mind the utilization.

Keywords: availability, distribution, health care, utilization

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Authors: Engy A. Mohamed, Y. G. Hegazy

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This paper presents a novel algorithm for modeling photovoltaic based distributed generators for the purpose of optimal planning of distribution networks. The proposed algorithm utilizes sequential Monte Carlo method in order to accurately consider the stochastic nature of photovoltaic based distributed generators. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB environment and the results obtained are presented and discussed.

Keywords: comulative distribution function, distributed generation, Monte Carlo

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Authors: Jessada Tariboon

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In this article, using distribution kernel, we study the nonlinear equations with n-dimensional telegraph operator iterated k-times.

Keywords: telegraph operator, elementary solution, distribution kernel, nonlinear equations

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Authors: Jessica Hemberg, Mikaela Miller

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Unreasonable workload and work-related stress can reduce nurse leaders’ job satisfaction and productivity and can increase absence and burnout. Nurse leaders’ workload in public healthcare settings is relatively unresearched. The aim of this study was to investigate nurse leaders’ perceptions of workload and task distribution with relation to leading work tasks in public healthcare. A qualitative explorative design was used. The data material consisted of texts from interviews with nurse leaders in public healthcare (N=8). The method was inspired by content analysis. The COREQ checklist was used. Informed consent was sought from the participants regarding study participation and the storage and handling of data for research purposes. Six main themes were found: Increased and unreasonable workload, Length of work experience as nurse leader affects perception of workload, Number of staff and staff characteristics affect perception of workload, Versatile and flexible task distribution, Working overtime as a way of managing high workload, and Insufficient time for leadership mission. The workload for nurse leaders in a public healthcare setting was perceived to be unreasonable. Common measures for managing high workload included working overtime, delegating work tasks and organizing more staff resources in the form of additional staff. How nurse leaders perceive their workload was linked to both the number of staff and staff characteristics. These should both be considered equally important when determining staff levels and measuring nurse leaders’ workload. Future research should focus on investigating workload and task distribution from nurses’ perspectives.

Keywords: nurse leaders, workload, task distribution, public healthcare, qualitative

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Authors: Falodun E. J., Ogbeifun S. O.

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The objectives of this study were to investigate the yield, nutrient concentration, and uptake of fluted pumpkin (Telfairia occidentalis Hook. f.) in response to spacing and fertilizer application. Two fluted pumpkin plant populations (10,000 and 20,000 plants ha⁻¹), D1 and D2, were evaluated at three levels of NPK fertilizer (F₁, 20 t ha⁻¹ poultry manure, F₂, 300 kg ha⁻¹ NPK 15:15:15 and F₃, 10 t ha⁻¹ poultry manure + 150 kg ha⁻¹ NPK 15:15:15) using a factorial arrangement in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) with three replications. Leaf length, breadth, and the number of leaves were significantly increased at a lower plant population of 10,000 plants ha⁻¹ while herbage yield increased with a higher plant population of 20,000 plants ha⁻¹ using 300 kg ha⁻¹ inorganic NPK 15:15:15 or a combination of 10 t ha⁻¹ poultry manure + 150 kg ha⁻¹ inorganic NPK 15:15:15. Potassium (K) concentration was significantly (p < 0.05) higher at 10,000 plants ha⁻¹ and Iron (Fe) uptake was higher with combine application of organic and inorganic fertilizer (F3). To maximize the good herbage yield of fluted pumpkins, farmers in this locality should adopt a plant population of 20,000 plants ha⁻¹ using 300 kg ha⁻¹ inorganic NPK 15:15:15 (D2F2) or a combination of 10 t ha⁻¹ poultry manure + 150 kg ha⁻¹ inorganic NPK 15:15:15 (D2F3).

Keywords: fertilizers, fluted pumpkin, herbage yield, plant population

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: A. Alzeyadi, E. Loffill, R. Alkhaddar

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Continuous upflow filters can combine the nutrient (nitrogen and phosphate) and suspended solid removal in one unit process. The contaminant removal could be achieved chemically or biologically; in both processes the filter removal efficiency depends on the interaction between the packed filter media and the influent. In this paper a residence time distribution (RTD) study was carried out to understand and compare the transfer behaviour of contaminants through a selected filter media packed in a laboratory-scale continuous up flow filter; the selected filter media are limestone and white dolomite. The experimental work was conducted by injecting a tracer (red drain dye tracer –RDD) into the filtration system and then measuring the tracer concentration at the outflow as a function of time; the tracer injection was applied at hydraulic loading rates (HLRs) (3.8 to 15.2 m h-1). The results were analysed according to the cumulative distribution function F(t) to estimate the residence time of the tracer molecules inside the filter media. The mean residence time (MRT) and variance σ2 are two moments of RTD that were calculated to compare the RTD characteristics of limestone with white dolomite. The results showed that the exit-age distribution of the tracer looks better at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1) and (3.8 m h-1) for limestone and white dolomite respectively. At these HLRs the cumulative distribution function F(t) revealed that the residence time of the tracer inside the limestone was longer than in the white dolomite; whereas all the tracer took 8 minutes to leave the white dolomite at 3.8 m h-1. On the other hand, the same amount of the tracer took 10 minutes to leave the limestone at the same HLR. In conclusion, the determination of the optimal level of hydraulic loading rate, which achieved the better influent distribution over the filtration system, helps to identify the applicability of the material as filter media. Further work will be applied to examine the efficiency of the limestone and white dolomite for phosphate removal by pumping a phosphate solution into the filter at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1).

Keywords: filter media, hydraulic loading rate, residence time distribution, tracer

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Authors: Zoltan Abram

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Background: In the last time it was hardly increased the prevalence of psychical diseases and disorders which reduce work capacity, life quality and life expectancy. Objectives: The aim of our research is to study the psychical health state of the Romanian adults living in the middle part of the country and the role of some economical, psychological and social factors, especially in relationship with depression. Methods: The study is based on a complex anonymous questionnaire, including Beck depressive scale, which was completed by a representative sample among adult population. The applied method was a combination between stratification and more-steps sampling. Results: After our results depression is the most common psychical illness with 9,1% diagnosis, but the tendency to depression, the existence of depressive symptoms is much higher than the treated illness. The percentage of suicide attempt among the studied population was 2,9%. It is analysed how gender, age, professional and social status, living and working conditions and different social factors are influencing the health state. According to Beck score, it was established a significant difference in the favour of female, elderly people, lower educational level, urban population. Conclusions: In our study it is underlined the importance of health promotion and education. It is concluded that improving living standards, modifying in a proper way the lifestyle of the population, we can positively influence the physical and mental health state of the Romanian adult population.

Keywords: Beck scale, depression, psychological aspects, suicide attempt

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Authors: Smruti Mahapatra, Dipankar Biswas, Richard Um, Michael Meggyesy, Riccardo Serra, Noah Gorelick, Steven Marra, Amir Manbachi, Mark G. Luciano

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Intracranial pressure (ICP) is profoundly regulated by the effects of cardiac pulsation and the volume of the incoming blood. Furthermore, these effects on ICP are incremented by the presence of a rigid skull that does not allow for changes in total volume during the cardiac cycle. These factors play a pivotal role in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics and distribution, with consequences that are not well understood to this date and that may have a deep effect on the Central Nervous System (CNS) functioning. We designed this study with two specific aims: (a) To study how pulsatility influences local CSF flow, and (b) To study how modulating intracranial pressure affects drug distribution throughout the SAS globally. In order to achieve these aims, we built an elaborate in-vitro model of the SAS closely mimicking the dimensions and flow rates of physiological systems. To modulate intracranial pressure, we used an intracranially implanted, cardiac-gated, volume-oscillating balloon (CADENCE device). Commercially available dye was used to visualize changes in CSF flow. We first implemented two control cases, seeing how the tracer behaves in the presence of pulsations from the brain phantom and the balloon individually. After establishing the controls, we tested 2 cases, having the brain and the balloon pulsate together in sync and out of sync. We then analyzed the distribution area using image processing software. The in-sync case produced a significant increase, 5x times, in the tracer distribution area relative to the out-of-sync case. Assuming that the tracer fluid would mimic blood flow movement, a drug introduced in the SAS with such a system in place would enhance drug distribution and increase the bioavailability of therapeutic drugs to a wider spectrum of brain tissue.

Keywords: blood-brain barrier, cardiac-gated, cerebrospinal fluid, drug delivery, neurosurgery

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Authors: Seyedfateh Moradi

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Medical issues mark the beginning of a new form of epistemology in nineteenth-century Iran. The emergence of epidemic diseases led to the formation of a medical discourse and conflict over the body which displayed itself in the concept of health progress and development. The discourse attributed to this development in the health system defines the general structure of the given period. This discourse manifested itself in the conflict between the traditional and new medicine. The regulation and classification of body and population reveal the nature of this period. The government attempted to adapt itself to the modern and progressive discourse. This paper seeks to reveal part of this rupture and adaptation around epidemics and modern medical discourse. Also, accepting part of the traditional discourse in the new era, or adapting and integrating parts of it indicate a delegation of part of the power of traditional authorities. The delegation of power arose in the context of the discursive hegemony of Western modernism from which there was no escape. This provided the ground for the acceptance of government and emergence of other discourses. Finally, during the reign of Reza Shah (1922-1942), body and population planning changed into the key issues of government, which created serious tensions in society.

Keywords: epidemic, population, body, cholera, plague

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Authors: Yuanhao Chang, Senbo Xiao, Zhiliang Zhang, Jianying He

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The role of nanoparticles (NPs) in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is being increasingly emphasized. In this study, the motion of NPs and local stress distribution of tapped oil droplet/nanofluid in nanochannels are studied with coarse-grained modeling and molecular dynamic simulations. The results illustrate three motion patterns for NPs: hydrophilic NPs are more likely to adsorb on the channel and stay near the three-phase contact areas, hydrophobic NPs move inside the oil droplet as clusters and more mixed NPs are trapped at the oil-water interface. NPs in each pattern affect the flow of fluid and the interfacial thickness to various degrees. Based on the calculation of atomistic stress, the characteristic that the higher value of stress occurs at the place where NPs aggregate can be obtained. Different occurrence patterns correspond to specific local stress distribution. Significantly, in the three-phase contact area for hydrophilic NPs, the local stress distribution close to the pattern of structural disjoining pressure is observed, which proves the existence of structural disjoining pressure in molecular dynamics simulation for the first time. Our results guide the design and screen of NPs for EOR and provide a basic understanding of nanofluid applications.

Keywords: local stress distribution, nanoparticles, enhanced oil recovery, molecular dynamics simulation, trapped oil droplet, structural disjoining pressure

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

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Authors: Nattachote Rugthaicharoencheep

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This paper presents a feeder reconfiguration problem in distribution systems. The objective is to minimize the system power loss and to improve bus voltage profile. The optimization problem is subjected to system constraints consisting of load-point voltage limits, radial configuration format, no load-point interruption, and feeder capability limits. A method based on genetic algorithm, a search algorithm based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics, is proposed to determine the optimal pattern of configuration. The developed methodology is demonstrated by a 33-bus radial distribution system with distributed generations and feeder capacitors. The study results show that the optimal on/off patterns of the switches can be identified to give the minimum power loss while respecting all the constraints.

Keywords: network reconfiguration, distributed generation capacitor placement, loss reduction, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Sang Wook Park, Jun Su Park, Byung Kwan Oh, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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This study suggests the estimation method of stress distribution for the beam structures based on TLS (Terrestrial Laser Scanning). The main components of method are the creation of the lattices of raw data from TLS to satisfy the suitable condition and application of CSSI (Cubic Smoothing Spline Interpolation) for estimating stress distribution. Estimation of stress distribution for the structural member or the whole structure is one of the important factors for safety evaluation of the structure. Existing sensors which include ESG (Electric strain gauge) and LVDT (Linear Variable Differential Transformer) can be categorized as contact type sensor which should be installed on the structural members and also there are various limitations such as the need of separate space where the network cables are installed and the difficulty of access for sensor installation in real buildings. To overcome these problems inherent in the contact type sensors, TLS system of LiDAR (light detection and ranging), which can measure the displacement of a target in a long range without the influence of surrounding environment and also get the whole shape of the structure, has been applied to the field of structural health monitoring. The important characteristic of TLS measuring is a formation of point clouds which has many points including the local coordinate. Point clouds is not linear distribution but dispersed shape. Thus, to analyze point clouds, the interpolation is needed vitally. Through formation of averaged lattices and CSSI for the raw data, the method which can estimate the displacement of simple beam was developed. Also, the developed method can be extended to calculate the strain and finally applicable to estimate a stress distribution of a structural member. To verify the validity of the method, the loading test on a simple beam was conducted and TLS measured it. Through a comparison of the estimated stress and reference stress, the validity of the method is confirmed.

Keywords: structural healthcare monitoring, terrestrial laser scanning, estimation of stress distribution, coordinate transformation, cubic smoothing spline interpolation

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Authors: Champika S. Kariyawasam

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The distribution of gorse (Ulex europaeus) plants in South Australia has been modelled using 126 presence-only location data as a function of seven climate parameters. The predicted range of U. europaeus is mainly along the Mount Lofty Ranges in the Adelaide Hills and on Kangaroo Island. Annual precipitation and yearly average aridity index appeared to be the highest contributing variables to the final model formulation. The Jackknife procedure was employed to identify the contribution of different variables to gorse model outputs and response curves were used to predict changes with changing environmental variables. Based on this analysis, it was revealed that the combined effect of one or more variables could make a completely different impact to the original variables on their own to the model prediction. This work also demonstrates the need for a careful approach when selecting environmental variables for projecting correlative models to climatically distinct area. Maxent acts as a robust model when projecting the fitted species distribution model to another area with changing climatic conditions, whereas the generalized linear model, bioclim, and domain models to be less robust in this regard. These findings are important not only for predicting and managing invasive alien gorse in South Australia and Sri Lanka but also in other countries of the invasive range.

Keywords: invasive species, Maxent, species distribution modelling, Ulex europaeus

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Authors: Braimah Joseph Odunayo, Jiju Gillariose

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This paper is aimed at developing a sampling plan that uses information from precedent and successive lots for lot disposition with a pretention that the life-time of a particular product assumes a Log-logistic distribution. A Two-pronged Truncated Deferred Sampling Plan (TTDSP) for Log-logistic distribution is proposed when the testing is truncated at a precise time. The best possible sample sizes are obtained under a given Maximum Allowable Percent Defective (MAPD), Test Suspension Ratios (TSR), and acceptance numbers (c). A formula for calculating the operating characteristics of the proposed plan is also developed. The operating characteristics and mean-ratio values were used to measure the performance of the plan. The findings of the study show that: Log-logistic distribution has a decreasing failure rate; furthermore, as mean-life ratio increase, the failure rate reduces; the sample size increase as the acceptance number, test suspension ratios and maximum allowable percent defective increases. The study concludes that the minimum sample sizes were smaller, which makes the plan a more economical plan to adopt when cost and time of production are costly and the experiment being destructive.

Keywords: consumers risk, mean life, minimum sample size, operating characteristics, producers risk

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Authors: Mohammad Ghiasvand, Babak Khorsandi, Morteza Kolahdoozan

Abstract:

Under the influence of waves, oil in the sea is subject to vertical scattering in the water column. Scientists' knowledge of how oil is dispersed in the water column is one of the lowest levels of knowledge among other processes affecting oil in the marine environment, which highlights the need for research and study in this field. Therefore, this study investigates the distribution of oil in the water column in a turbulent environment with zero velocity characteristics. Lack of laboratory results to analyze the distribution of petroleum pollutants in deep water for information Phenomenon physics on the one hand and using them to calibrate numerical models on the other hand led to the development of laboratory models in research. According to the aim of the present study, which is to investigate the distribution of oil in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence caused by the oscillating Grid, after reaching the ideal conditions, the crude oil flow was poured onto the water surface and oil was distributed in deep water due to turbulence was investigated. In this study, all experimental processes have been implemented and used for the first time in Iran, and the study of oil diffusion in the water column was considered one of the key aspects of pollutant diffusion in the oscillating Grid environment. Finally, the required oscillation velocities were taken at depths of 10, 15, 20, and 25 cm from the water surface and used in the analysis of oil diffusion due to turbulence parameters. The results showed that with the characteristics of the present system in two static modes and network motion with a frequency of 0.8 Hz, the results of oil diffusion in the four mentioned depths at a frequency of 0.8 Hz compared to the static mode from top to bottom at 26.18, 57 31.5, 37.5 and 50% more. Also, after 2.5 minutes of the oil spill at a frequency of 0.8 Hz, oil distribution at the mentioned depths increased by 49, 61.5, 85, and 146.1%, respectively, compared to the base (static) state.

Keywords: homogeneous and isotropic turbulence, oil distribution, oscillating grid, oil spill

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Authors: Meredith M. Pratt

Abstract:

The Atlantic sailfish (Istiophorus albicans) ranges from 40°N to 40°S in the Western Atlantic Ocean and has great economic and recreational value for sport fishers. Off the eastern coast of Florida, charter boats often target this species. Stuart, Florida, bills itself as the sailfish capital of the world. Sailfish tag data from The Billfish Foundation and NOAA was used to determine the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the distribution of Atlantic sailfish caught and released over a fifteen-year period (2003 to 2018). Tagging information was collected from local sports fishermen in Florida. Using the time and location of each landed sailfish, a satellite-derived SST value was obtained for each point. The purpose of this study was to determine if sea surface warming was associated with changes in sailfish distribution. On average, sailfish were caught at 26.16 ± 1.70°C (x̄ ± s.d.) over the fifteen-year period. The most sailfish catches occurred at temperatures ranging from 25.2°C to 25.5°C. Over the fifteen-year period, sailfish catches decreased at lower temperatures (~23°C and ~24°C) and at 31°C. At ~25°C and ~30°C there was no change in catch numbers of sailfish. From 26°C to 29°C, there was an increase in the number of sailfish. Based on these results, increasing ocean temperatures will have an impact on the distribution and habitat utilization of sailfish. Warming sea surface temperatures create a need for more policy and regulation to protect the Atlantic sailfish and related highly migratory billfish species.

Keywords: atlantic sailfish, Billfish, istiophorus albicans, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Mohsen Dourandish

Abstract:

Iran has a huge pipeline network in every state of country which is the longest and vastest pipeline network after Russia and USA (360,000 Km high pressure pipelines and 250,000 Km distribution networks). Furthermore in recent years National Iranian Gas Company is planning to develop natural gas network to cover all cities and villages above 20 families, in a way that 97 percent of Iran population will be gas consumer by 2020. In this condition, network resiliency will be the first priority of NIGC and due to that several planning for increasing resiliency of gas network is under construction. The most important strategy of NIGC is converting tree form pattern network to loop gas networks and developing underground gas storage near main gas consuming centers. In this regard NIGC is planning for construction of over 3500 km high-pressure pipeline and also 10 TCM gas storage capacities in UGSs.

Keywords: Iranian gas network, peak shaving, resiliency, underground gas storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Shayla He

Abstract:

Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Masoud Sheidaei, Mohammad-Reza Kordasti, Fahimeh Koohdar

Abstract:

Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T.Aiton, (Apocynaceae), is an economically and medicinally important plant species which is an evergreen, perennial shrub growing in arid and semi-arid climates, and can tolerate very low annual rainfall (150 mm) and a dry season. The plant can also tolerate temperature ran off 20 to30°C and is not frost tolerant. This plant species prefers free-draining sandy soils but can grow also in alkaline and saline soils.It is found at a range of altitudes from exposed coastal sites to medium elevations up to 1300 m. Due to morpho-physiological adaptations of C. procera and its ability to tolerate various abiotic stresses. This taxa can compete with desirable pasture species and forms dense thickets that interfere with stock management, particularly mustering activities. Caloteropis procera grows only in southern part of Iran where in comprises a limited number of geographical populations. We used different population genetics and r landscape analysis to produce data on geographical populations of C. procera based on molecular genetic study using SCoT molecular markers. First, we used spatial principal components (sPCA), as it can analyze data in a reduced space and can be used for co-dominant markers as well as presence / absence data as is the case in SCoT molecular markers. This method also carries out Moran I and Mantel tests to reveal spatial autocorrelation and test for the occurrence of Isolation by distance (IBD). We also performed Random Forest analysis to identify the importance of spatial and geographical variables on genetic diversity. Moreover, we used both RDA (Redundency analysis), and LFMM (Latent factor mixed model), to identify the genetic loci significantly associated with geographical variables. A niche modellng analysis was carried our to predict present potential area for distribution of these plants and also the area present by the year 2050. The results obtained will be discussed in this paper.

Keywords: population genetics, landscape genetic, Calotreropis procera, niche modeling, SCoT markers

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Sammy Kibor, Filip Huyghe, Marc Kochzius, James Kairo

Abstract:

Goldstripe Sardinella, Sardinella gibbosa, (Bleeker, 1849) is a commercially and ecologically important small pelagic fish common in the Western Indian Ocean region. The present study aimed to assess genetic diversity and population structure of the species in the Kenya-Tanzania transboundary area using mtDNA and msDNA markers. Some 630 bp sequence in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) Cytochrome C Oxidase I (COI) and five polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci were analyzed. Fin clips of 309 individuals from eight locations within the transboundary area were collected between July and December 2018. The S. gibbosa individuals from the different locations were distinguishable from one another based on the mtDNA variation, as demonstrated with a neighbor-joining tree and minimum spanning network analysis. None of the identified 22 haplotypes were shared between Kenya and Tanzania. Gene diversity per locus was relatively high (0.271-0.751), highest Fis was 0.391. The structure analysis, discriminant analysis of Principal component (DAPC) and the pair-wise (FST = 0.136 P < 0.001) values after Bonferroni correction using five microsatellite loci provided clear inference on genetic differentiation and thus evidence of population structure of S. gibbosa along the Kenya-Tanzania coast. This study shows a high level of genetic diversity and the presence of population structure (Φst =0.078 P < 0.001) resulting to the existence of four populations giving a clear indication of minimum gene flow among the population. This information has application in the designing of marine protected areas, an important tool for marine conservation.

Keywords: marine connectivity, microsatellites, population genetics, transboundary

Procedia PDF Downloads 110