Search results for: bug prediction

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Yong-Il Lee, Do-Yeon Hwang, Won-Seog Jeong, Duckshin Park

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Recently, because of the high-speed trains forced ventilation, it is important to control the ventilation. The ventilation is for controlling various contaminants, temperature, and humidity. The high-speed train route is straight to a destination having a high speed. And there are many mountainous areas in Korea. So, tunnel rate is higher then other country. KTX HVAC block off the outdoor air, when entering tunnel. So the high tunnel rate is an effect of ventilation in the KTX cabin. It is important to reduction rate in CO2 concentration prediction. To meet the air quality of the public transport vehicles recommend standards, the KTX cabin of CO2 concentration should be managed. In this study, the concentration change was predicted by CO2 prediction simulation in route to be opened.

Keywords: CO2 prediction, KTX, ventilation, infrastructure and transportation engineering

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Authors: Katawut Kaewbanjong

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We analyzed a volume of data and found significant user satisfaction in software project factors. A statistical significance analysis (logistic regression) and collinearity analysis determined the significance factors from a group of 71 pre-defined factors from 191 software projects in ISBSG Release 12. The eight prediction models used for testing the prediction potential of these factors were Neural network, k-NN, Naïve Bayes, Random forest, Decision tree, Gradient boosted tree, linear regression and logistic regression prediction model. Fifteen pre-defined factors were truly significant in predicting user satisfaction, and they provided 82.71% prediction accuracy when used with a neural network prediction model. These factors were client-server, personnel changes, total defects delivered, project inactive time, industry sector, application type, development type, how methodology was acquired, development techniques, decision making process, intended market, size estimate approach, size estimate method, cost recording method, and effort estimate method. These findings may benefit software development managers considerably.

Keywords: prediction model, statistical analysis, software project, user satisfaction factor

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Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo

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The acidity (citric acid) is one of the chemical contents that can refer to the internal quality and the maturity index of tomato. The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR). Spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Byung G. Kim

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Identification of patients at high risk for hospital readmission is of crucial importance for quality health care and cost reduction. Predicting hospital readmissions among diabetic patients has been of great interest to many researchers and health decision makers. We build a prediction model to predict hospital readmission for diabetic patients within 30 days of discharge. The core of the prediction model is a modified k Nearest Neighbor called Hybrid Fuzzy Weighted k Nearest Neighbor algorithm. The prediction is performed on a patient dataset which consists of more than 70,000 patients with 50 attributes. We applied data preprocessing using different techniques in order to handle data imbalance and to fuzzify the data to suit the prediction algorithm. The model so far achieved classification accuracy of 80% compared to other models that only use k Nearest Neighbor.

Keywords: machine learning, prediction, classification, hybrid fuzzy weighted k-nearest neighbor, diabetic hospital readmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Suriya

Abstract:

Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: A. Majidian

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The life prediction of thermal power plant components is necessary to prevent the unexpected outages, optimize maintenance tasks in periodic overhauls and plan inspection tasks with their schedules. One of the main critical components in a power plant is condenser because its failure can affect many other components which are positioned in downstream of condenser. This paper deals with factors affecting life of condenser. Failure rates dependency vs. these factors has been investigated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and fuzzy logic algorithms. These algorithms have shown their capabilities as dynamic tools to evaluate life prediction of power plant equipments.

Keywords: life prediction, condenser tube, neural network, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Amin Mohamed Nassar

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Wind energy is a fluctuating energy source unlike conventional power plants, thus, it is necessary to accurately predict short term wind speed to integrate wind energy in the electricity supply structure. To do so, we present a hybrid artificial intelligence model of short term wind speed prediction based on passive aggregation of the particle swarm optimization and neural networks. As a result, improvement of the prediction accuracy is obviously obtained compared to the standard artificial intelligence method.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neural networks, particle swarm optimization, passive aggregation, wind speed prediction

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Authors: Thinh Ngo, Paul Rad, Brian Kelley

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Noise estimation is essential in today wireless systems for power control, adaptive modulation, interference suppression and quality of service. Deep learning (DL) has already been applied in the physical layer for modulation and signal classifications. Unacceptably low accuracy of less than 50% is found to undermine traditional application of DL classification for SNR prediction. In this paper, we use divide-and-conquer algorithm and classifier fusion method to simplify SNR classification and therefore enhances DL learning and prediction. Specifically, multiple CNNs are used for classification rather than a single CNN. Each CNN performs a binary classification of a single SNR with two labels: less than, greater than or equal. Together, multiple CNNs are combined to effectively classify over a range of SNR values from −20 ≤ SNR ≤ 32 dB.We use pre-trained CNNs to predict SNR over a wide range of joint channel parameters including multiple Doppler shifts (0, 60, 120 Hz), power-delay profiles, and signal-modulation types (QPSK,16QAM,64-QAM). The approach achieves individual SNR prediction accuracy of 92%, composite accuracy of 70% and prediction convergence one order of magnitude faster than that of traditional estimation.

Keywords: classification, CNN, deep learning, prediction, SNR

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Authors: Pengwei Qiao, Sucai Yang, Wenxia Wei

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Soil pollution has become an important issue in China. Accurate spatial distribution prediction of pollutants with interpolation methods is the basis for soil remediation in the site. However, a relatively strong variability of pollutants would decrease the prediction accuracy. Theoretically, partition interpolation can result in accurate prediction results. In order to verify the applicability of partition interpolation for a site, benzo (b) fluoranthene (BbF) in four soil layers was adopted as the research object in this paper. IDW (inverse distance weighting)-, RBF (radial basis function)-and OK (ordinary kriging)-based partition interpolation accuracies were evaluated, and their influential factors were analyzed; then, the uncertainty and applicability of partition interpolation were determined. Three conclusions were drawn. (1) The prediction error of partitioned interpolation decreased by 70% compared to unpartitioned interpolation. (2) Partition interpolation reduced the impact of high CV (coefficient of variation) and high concentration value on the prediction accuracy. (3) The prediction accuracy of IDW-based partition interpolation was higher than that of RBF- and OK-based partition interpolation, and it was suitable for the identification of highly polluted areas at a contaminated site. These results provide a useful method to obtain relatively accurate spatial distribution information of pollutants and to identify highly polluted areas, which is important for soil pollution remediation in the site.

Keywords: accuracy, applicability, partition interpolation, site, soil pollution, uncertainty

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Authors: Engin Eyceyurt, Josko Zec

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The current and future cellular mobile communication networks generate enormous amounts of data. Networks have become extremely complex with extensive space of parameters, features and counters. These networks are unmanageable with legacy methods and an enhanced design and optimization approach is necessary that is increasingly reliant on machine learning. This paper proposes that machine learning as a viable approach for uplink throughput prediction. LTE radio metric, such as Reference Signal Received Power (RSRP), Reference Signal Received Quality (RSRQ), and Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) are used to train models to estimate expected uplink throughput. The prediction accuracy with high determination coefficient of 91.2% is obtained from measurements collected with a simple smartphone application.

Keywords: drive test, LTE, machine learning, uplink throughput prediction

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Authors: Nurul Mazni Abdullah, Saw Kian Cheah, Raha Abdul Rahman, Qurratu 'Aini Musthafa

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Purpose: Candidemia was associated with high mortality in the critically ill patients. Early candidemia prediction is imperative for preemptive antifungal treatment. This study aimed to externally validate the candidemia risk prediction scores by Jameran et al. (2021) by identifying risk factors of acute kidney injury, renal replacement therapy, parenteral nutrition, and multifocal candida colonization. Methods: This single-center, retrospective observational study included all critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary referral center from January 2018 to December 2023. The study evaluated the candidemia risk prediction score performance by analysing the occurrence of candidemia within the study period. Patients’ demographic characteristics, comorbidities, SOFA scores, and ICU outcomes were analyzed. Patients who were diagnosed with candidemia prior to ICU admission were excluded. Results: A total of 500 patients were analyzed with 2 dropouts due to incomplete data. Validation analysis showed that the candidemia risk prediction score has a sensitivity of 75.00% (95% CI: 59.66-86.81), specificity of 65.35% (95% CI: 60.78-69.72), positive predictive value of 17.28, and negative predictive value of 96.44. The incidence of candidemia was 8.86%, with no significant differences in demographics or comorbidities except for higher SOFA scoring in the candidemia group. The candidemia group showed significantly longer ICU, hospital LOS, and higher ICU in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: This study concluded the candidemia risk prediction score by Jameran et al. (2021) had good sensitivity and a high negative prediction value. Thus, the risk prediction score was validated for candidemia prediction in critically ill patients.

Keywords: Candidemia, intensive care, acute kidney injury, clinical prediction rule, incidence

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Authors: Pingshan Chen, Zhiliang Dong

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In order to estimate the post-construction settlement more objectively, the power-polynomial model is proposed, which can reflect the trend of settlement development based on the observed settlement data. It was demonstrated by an actual case history of an embankment, and during the prediction. Compared with the other three prediction models, the power-polynomial model can estimate the post-construction settlement more accurately with more simple calculation.

Keywords: prediction, model, post-construction settlement, soft ground

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Jian He

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Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world, and coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major heart diseases. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is widely used in the detection of heart diseases, but the traditional manual method for CHD prediction by analyzing ECG requires lots of professional knowledge for doctors. This paper introduces sliding window and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to transform ECG signals into images, and then ResNet and Bi-LSTM are introduced to build the ECG feature extraction network (namely ECGNet). At last, an auxiliary system for coronary heart disease prediction was developed based on modified ResNet18 and Bi-LSTM, and the public ECG dataset of CHD from MIMIC-3 was used to train and test the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the method is 83%, and the F1-score is 83%. Compared with the available methods for CHD prediction based on ECG, such as kNN, decision tree, VGGNet, etc., this method not only improves the prediction accuracy but also could avoid the degradation phenomenon of the deep learning network.

Keywords: Bi-LSTM, CHD, ECG, ResNet, sliding window

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Authors: Sophie N. Selby-Pham, Yudie Wang, Louise Bennett

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Consumption of grapes promotes health and reduces the risk of chronic diseases due to the action of grape phytochemicals in regulation of Oxidative Stress and Inflammation (OSI). The bioefficacy of phytochemicals depends on their absorption in the human body. The time required for phytochemicals to achieve maximal plasma concentration (Tₘₐₓ) after oral intake reflects the time window of maximal bioefficacy of phytochemicals, with Tₘₐₓ dependent on physicochemical properties of phytochemicals. This research collated physicochemical properties of grape phytochemicals from white and red grapes to predict their Tₘₐₓ using pharmacokinetic modelling. The predicted values of Tₘₐₓ were then compared to the measured Tₘₐₓ collected from clinical studies to determine the accuracy of prediction. In both liquid and solid intake forms, white grapes exhibit a shorter Tₘₐₓ range (0.5-2.5 h) versus red grapes (1.5-5h). The prediction accuracy of Tₘₐₓ for grape phytochemicals was 33.3% total error of prediction compared to the mean, indicating high prediction accuracy. Pharmacokinetic modelling allows prediction of Tₘₐₓ without costly clinical trials, informing dosing frequency for sustained presence of phytochemicals in the body to optimize the health benefits of phytochemicals.

Keywords: absorption kinetics, phytochemical, phytochemical absorption prediction model, Vitis vinifera

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Authors: Cedric Leong, Parth Desai, Parth Patel

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The purpose of this project was to develop a neural network based on qualitative team data to predict alliance scores to determine winners of matches in the FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC). The game for the competition changes every year with different objectives and game objects, however the idea was to create a prediction system which can be reused year by year using some of the statistics that are constant through different games, making our system adaptable to future games as well. Aerial Assist is the FRC game for 2014, and is played in alliances of 3 teams going against one another, namely the Red and Blue alliances. This application takes any 6 teams paired into 2 alliances of 3 teams and generates the prediction for the final score between them.

Keywords: artifical neural network, prediction system, qualitative team data, FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 511

Authors: Khalaf Khatatneh, Nabeel Al-Milli, Amjad Hudaib, Monther Ali Tarawneh

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Software fault prediction identify potential faults in software modules during the development process. In this paper, we present a novel approach for software fault prediction by combining a feedforward neural network with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The PSO algorithm is employed as a feature selection technique to identify the most relevant metrics as inputs to the neural network. Which enhances the quality of feature selection and subsequently improves the performance of the neural network model. Through comprehensive experiments on software fault prediction datasets, the proposed hybrid approach achieves better results, outperforming traditional classification methods. The integration of PSO-based feature selection with the neural network enables the identification of critical metrics that provide more accurate fault prediction. Results shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its potential for reducing development costs and effort by detecting faults early in the software development lifecycle. Further research and validation on diverse datasets will help solidify the practical applicability of the new approach in real-world software engineering scenarios.

Keywords: feature selection, neural network, particle swarm optimization, software fault prediction

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Authors: Ajayi Olusola Olajide, Alonge Olaide Moses

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Predicting the outcome of soccer matches poses an interesting challenge for which it is realistically impossible to successfully do so for every match. Despite this, there are lots of resources that are being expended on the correct prediction of soccer matches weekly, and all over the world. Soccer Match Result Prediction System Model (SMRPSM) is a system that is proposed whereby the results of matches between two soccer teams are auto-generated, with the added excitement of giving users a chance to test their predictive abilities. Soccer teams from different league football are loaded by the application, with each team’s corresponding manager and other information like team location, team logo and nickname. The user is also allowed to interact with the system by selecting the match to be predicted and viewing of the results of completed matches after registering/logging in.

Keywords: predicting, soccer match, outcome, soccer, matches, result prediction, system, model

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Authors: Shital Suresh Borse, Vijayalaxmi Kadroli

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E-commerce industries nowadays implement the latest AI, ML Techniques to improve their own performance and prediction accuracy. This helps to gain a huge profit from the online market. Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network & GWO help many e-commerce industries for up-gradation of their predictive performance. These algorithms are providing optimum results in various applications, such as stock price prediction, prediction of drug-target interaction & user ratings of similar products in e-commerce sites, etc. In this study, customer reviews will play an important role in prediction analysis. People showing much interest in buying a lot of services& products suggested by other customers. This ultimately increases net profit. In this work, a convolution neural network (CNN) is proposed which further is useful to optimize the prediction accuracy of an e-commerce website. This method shows that CNN is used to optimize hyperparameters of GWO algorithm using an appropriate coding scheme. Accurate model results are verified by comparing them to PSO results whose hyperparameters have been optimized by CNN in Amazon's customer review dataset. Here, experimental outcome proves that this proposed system using the GWO algorithm achieves superior execution in terms of accuracy, precision, recovery, etc. in prediction analysis compared to the existing systems.

Keywords: prediction analysis, e-commerce, machine learning, grey wolf optimization, particle swarm optimization, CNN

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Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction

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Authors: Rodrigo Aguiar, Adelino Ferreira

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Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of unnatural death and injuries worldwide, representing a significant problem of road safety. In this context, the use of artificial intelligence with advanced machine learning techniques has gained prominence as a promising approach to predict traffic accidents. This article investigates the application of machine learning algorithms to develop traffic accident frequency prediction models. Models are evaluated based on performance metrics, making it possible to do a comparative analysis with traditional prediction approaches. The results suggest that machine learning can provide a powerful tool for accident prediction, which will contribute to making more informed decisions regarding road safety.

Keywords: machine learning, artificial intelligence, frequency of accidents, road safety

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Authors: Asmir Gogic, Aljo Mujcic, Sandra Ibric, Nermin Suljanovic

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Ubiquity of natural disasters during last few decades have risen serious questions towards the prediction of such events and human safety. Every disaster regardless its proportion has a precursor which is manifested as a disruption of some environmental parameter such as temperature, humidity, pressure, vibrations and etc. In order to anticipate and monitor those changes, in this paper we propose an overall system for disaster prediction and monitoring, based on wireless sensor network (WSN). Furthermore, we introduce a modified and simplified WSN routing protocol built on the top of the trickle routing algorithm. Routing algorithm was deployed using the bluetooth low energy protocol in order to achieve low power consumption. Performance of the WSN network was analyzed using a real life system implementation. Estimates of the WSN parameters such as battery life time, network size and packet delay are determined. Based on the performance of the WSN network, proposed system can be utilized for disaster monitoring and prediction due to its low power profile and mesh routing feature.

Keywords: bluetooth low energy, disaster prediction, mesh routing protocols, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

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Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information of Earthquake Existed throughout history & Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, prediction, RBF neural network, earthquake

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Authors: Azzedine Hamza, Chouaib Chakour, Messaoud Ramdani

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Energy demand prediction plays a crucial role in achieving next-generation power systems for agricultural greenhouses. As a result, high prediction quality is required for efficient smart grid management and therefore low-cost energy consumption. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of a hybrid data-driven model in day-ahead energy demand prediction. The proposed model consists of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The DWT is employed to decompose the original signal in a set of subseries and then an ANFIS is used to generate the forecast for each subseries. The proposed hybrid method (DWT-ANFIS) was evaluated using a greenhouse energy demand data for a week and compared with ANFIS. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was demonstrated that discret wavelet transform can improve agricultural greenhouse energy demand modeling.

Keywords: wavelet transform, ANFIS, energy consumption prediction, greenhouse

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Authors: Xuyang Song, Jun Yin

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The smart card has been an extremely universal tool in public transit. It collects a large amount of data on buses, urban railway transit, and ferries and provides possibilities for passenger profiling. This paper combines offline analysis of passenger profiling and real-time prediction to propose a method that can accurately predict the destination station in real-time when passengers tag on. Firstly, this article constructs a static database of user travel characteristics after identifying passenger travel patterns based on the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN). The dual travel passenger habits are identified: OD travel habits and D station travel habits. Then a rapid real-time prediction algorithm based on Transit Passenger Profiling is proposed, which can predict the destination of in-board passengers. This article combines offline learning with online prediction, providing a technical foundation for real-time passenger flow prediction, monitoring and simulation, and short-term passenger behavior and demand prediction. This technology facilitates the efficient and real-time acquisition of passengers' travel destinations and demand. The last, an actual case was simulated and demonstrated feasibility and efficiency.

Keywords: travel behavior, destination prediction, public transit, passenger profiling

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Authors: Yiannis G. Smirlis

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The classification and the prediction of efficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is an important issue, especially in large scale problems or when new units frequently enter the under-assessment set. In this paper, we contribute to the subject by proposing a grid structure based on interval segmentations of the range of values for the inputs and outputs. Such intervals combined, define hyper-rectangles that partition the space of the problem. This structure, exploited by Interval DEA models and a dominance relation, acts as a DEA pre-processor, enabling the classification and prediction of efficiency scores, without applying any DEA models.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, interval DEA, efficiency classification, efficiency prediction

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Authors: Jamerson Felipe Pereira Lima, Jeane Cecília Bezerra de Melo

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The difficulty and cost related to obtaining of protein tertiary structure information through experimental methods, such as X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy, helped raising the development of computational methods to do so. An approach used in these last is prediction of tridimensional structure based in the residue chain, however, this has been proved an NP-hard problem, due to the complexity of this process, explained by the Levinthal paradox. An alternative solution is the prediction of intermediary structures, such as the secondary structure of the protein. Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Bayesian statistics, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others, were used to predict protein secondary structure. Due to its good results, artificial neural networks have been used as a standard method to predict protein secondary structure. Recent published methods that use this technique, in general, achieved a Q3 accuracy between 75% and 83%, whereas the theoretical accuracy limit for protein prediction is 88%. Alternatively, to achieve better results, support vector machines prediction methods have been developed. The statistical evaluation of methods that use different AI techniques, such as ANNs and SVMs, for example, is not a trivial problem, since different training sets, validation techniques, as well as other variables can influence the behavior of a prediction method. In this study, we propose a prediction method based on artificial neural networks, which is then compared with a selected SVM method. The chosen SVM protein secondary structure prediction method is the one proposed by Huang in his work Extracting Physico chemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure (2013). The developed ANN method has the same training and testing process that was used by Huang to validate his method, which comprises the use of the CB513 protein data set and three-fold cross-validation, so that the comparative analysis of the results can be made comparing directly the statistical results of each method.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, protein secondary structure, protein structure prediction, support vector machines

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, prediction modeling, rail track degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 333