Search results for: empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction

Authors: Mohammad Afkhami, Saeid Reza Ameli Ranani

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Since the bitcoin invention in 2008, blockchain technology surpassed so many innovations that the pioneer networks such as Ethereum are adaptable to host a decentral bunch of information containing pictures, audio, video, domains, etc., or even a metaverse versatile avatar. Transformation of tangible goods into virtual assets, known as AR-utility of luxury products, and the intermixture of reality and virtuality organized a worldwide, semi-regulated, and decentralized marketplace for digital goods. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are doing a great help to artists worldwide, sharing diverse cultural outlooks by setting up a remote cross-cultural corporation potential and, at the same time, metamorphosizing the middleman role and ceasing the necessity of having a SWIFT-connected bank account. Under critical sanctions, a group of artists in Tehran did not take for granted such an opportunity to show off their artworks undisturbed, offering an introspective attitude, exerting Iranian motifs while intermingling westernized symbols. The cryptocurrency market has already acquired allocation, and interest in the global domain, paving the way for a flourishing enthusiasm among entrepreneurs who have been preoccupied with high-tech start-ups before. In a project found by Iranian female artists, we decipher the ups and downs of the new cyberculture and the environment it provides to fairly promote the artwork and obstacles it put forward in the way of interested entrepreneurs as we get through the details of starting up an NFT collection. An in-depth interview and empirical encounters with diverse Social Network Sites (SNS) and the strategies that other successful projects deploy to sell their artworks in an international and, at the same time, an anonymous market is the main focus, which shapes the paper fieldwork perspective. In conclusion, we discuss strategies for promoting an NFT project.

Keywords: NFT, metaverse, intercultural, art, illustration, start-up, entrepreneurship

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Authors: Georgios Koronis, Arlindo Silva

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This study seeks to understand the mechanical behavior of a natural fiber reinforced composite (epoxy/flax) in more depth, utilizing both experimental and numerical methods. It is attempted to identify relationships between the design parameters and the product performance, understand the effect of noise factors and reduce process variations. Optimization of the mechanical performance of manufactured goods has recently been implemented by numerous studies for green composites. However, these studies are limited and have explored in principal mass production processes. It is expected here to discover knowledge about composite’s manufacturing that can be used to design artifacts that are of low batch and tailored to niche markets. The goal is to reach greater consistency in the performance and further understand which factors play significant roles in obtaining the best mechanical performance. A prediction of response function (in various operating conditions) of the process is modeled by the DoE. Normally, a full factorial designed experiment is required and consists of all possible combinations of levels for all factors. An analytical assessment is possible though with just a fraction of the full factorial experiment. The outline of the research approach will comprise of evaluating the influence that these variables have and how they affect the composite mechanical behavior. The coupons will be fabricated by the vacuum infusion process defined by three process parameters: flow rate, injection point position and fiber treatment. Each process parameter is studied at 2-levels along with their interactions. Moreover, the tensile and flexural properties will be obtained through mechanical testing to discover the key process parameters. In this setting, an experimental phase will be followed in which a number of fabricated coupons will be tested to allow for a validation of the design of the experiment’s setup. Finally, the results are validated by performing the optimum set of in a final set of experiments as indicated by the DoE. It is expected that after a good agreement between the predicted and the verification experimental values, the optimal processing parameter of the biocomposite lamina will be effectively determined.

Keywords: design of experiments, flax fabrics, mechanical performance, natural fiber reinforced composites

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Authors: Yangyang Zhou

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Rapid urbanization has caused the urban heat island effect, which will threaten the physical and mental health of urban dwellers, and blue-green spaces can mitigate the thermal environment effectively. In this study, we calculated the average LST from 2013 to 2022, Northeastmonsoon and Southwestmonsoon of Singapore, and compared the cooling effect differences of the four blue-green spaces. Then, spatial correlation and spatial autoregression model were conducted between cooling distance intensity (CDI) and 11 independent variables. The results reveal that (1) the highest mean land surface temperature (LST) in all years, Northeast monsoon and Southwest monsoon can reach 42.8 ℃, 41.6 ℃, and 42.9 ℃, respectively. (2) the temperature-changing tendency in the three time periods is similar to each other, while the overall LST changing trends of the Southwest monsoon are lower than all year and Northeast monsoon. (3) the cooling distance of the sea can reach 1200 m, and CEI is highly positively correlated with NDBI and BuildD and highly negatively correlated with SVF, NDVI and TreeH. LISA maps showed that the zones that passed the significance test between CDI, NDBI and BuildD were nearly the same locations; the same phenomenon also happened between CDI and SVF, NDVI and TreeH. (4) SLM had better regression results than SEM in all the regions; only 3 independent variables passed the significance test in region 1, and most independent variables can pass the significance test in other regions. Variables DIST and NDBI were significantly affecting the CDI in all the regions. In the whole region, all the variables passed the significance test, and NDBI (1.61), SVF (0.95) and NDVI (0.5) had the strongest influence on CDI.

Keywords: cooling effect, land surface temperature, thermal environment mitigation, spatial autoregression model

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Authors: Hui-Chi Huang, Su-Ju Yang, Ching-Wei Lin, Jui-Yao Tsai, Liang-Yiang

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Background: Evidence exists that pneumonia is a frequently encountered complication after stroke which is associated with a higher rate of mortality and increased long-term disability Purpose: To determine the predictors associated with the risk of one-year disability in acute stroke. Methods: Data for this longitudinal follow-up study were extracted from a tertiary referral medical center’s stroke registry database in Northern Taipei. Eligible patients with acute stroke admitted to the hospital and completed a one-year follow up were recruited for analysis. Favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≤ 2. SAS version 9.2 was used for the multivariable regression analyses to examine the factors correlated with the one-year disability in stroke patients. Results: From January 2012 to December 2013, a total of 1373 (mean age: 70.49±15.4 years, 913(66.5%) males) consecutively administered acute stroke patients were recruited. Overall, the rate of one-year disability was 37.20%(404/1086) in those without post-stroke pneumonia. It increased to 82.93 %(238/287) in patients developed post-stroke pneumonia. Factors associated with increased risk of disability were age ≧ 75(OR= 4.845, p<.0001), female /gender (OR=1.568, p =.0062), previous stroke (OR= 1.868, p = <. 0001) ,dementia (OR= 2.872, p =.0047), ventilator use (OR= 4.653, p <. 0001),age ≧ 75 /pneumonia (OR=1.236, p <. 0001) , ICU admission (OR=3.314, p <.0001) , nasogastric tube insertion (OR= 4.28, p <.0001), speech therapy (OR= 1.79, p =.0142), urinary tract infection (OR= 1.865, p =.0018), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR > 60 )(OR= 0.525, p= .0029), Admission NIHSS >11 (OR= 2.101, p = .0099), Length of hospitalization > 30(d) (OR= 5.182, p <.0001). Conclusion: Older age, severe neurological deficit, complications, rehabilitation intervention, length of hospitalization >30(d), and cognitive impairment were significantly associated with Post-stroke functional impairment, especially those with post-stroke pneumonia. These findings could open new avenues in the management of stroke patients.

Keywords: stroke, risk, pneumonia, disability

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Authors: Pierre F. Gerard, Frederic F. Leymarie, William Latham

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Architects have developed a series of objective evaluations, using spatial analysis tools such as Isovist, that show how certain spatial qualities are beneficial to specific human activities hosted in the built environments. In return, they can build more adapted environments by tuning those spatial qualities in their design. In parallel, virtual reality technologies have been developed by engineers with the dream of creating a system that immerses users in a new form of spatial experiences. They already have demonstrated a useful range of benefits not only in simulating critical events to assist people in acquiring new skills, but also to enhance memory retention, to name just a few. This paper investigates the effects of two spatial qualities, openness, and complexity, on cognitive performance within immersive virtual environments. Isovist measure is used to design a series of room settings with different levels of each spatial qualities. In an empirical study, each room was then used by every participant to solve a navigational puzzle game and give a rating of their spatial experience. They were then asked to fill in a questionnaire before solving the visual-spatial memory quiz, which addressed how well they remembered the different rooms. Findings suggest that those spatial qualities have an effect on some of the measures, including navigation performance and memory retention. In particular, there is an order effect for the navigation puzzle game. Participants tended to spend a longer time in the complex room settings. Moreover, there is an interaction effect while with more open settings, participants tended to perform better when in a simple setting; however, with more closed settings, participants tended to perform better in a more complex setting. For the visual-spatial memory quiz, participants performed significantly better within the more open rooms. We believe this is a first step in using virtual environments to enhance participant cognitive performances through better use of specific spatial qualities.

Keywords: architecture, navigation, spatial cognition, virtual reality

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Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

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Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should properly evaluate their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, Neural Networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable to offer an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Saeed Musaid Alzahrani

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Shared values, beliefs, norms and assumptions within the organisation can affect personal and team effectiveness. Organisational culture can also affect the performance of organisational members. The nature of middle leadership in a primary school is largely influenced by organizational culture. The effectiveness of middle leadership in primary schools and their performance is strongly determined by the circumstances in which they work and can be political or institutional. This study aims to examine the influence of organisational culture and government policy on the performance and effectiveness of middle managers, using the English and Saudi education systems as case studies. To examine how education policy conditions educational discourse, and answer the research questions, there is a need to collect qualitative data on middle manager’s perceptions and experiences in the English and Saudi Arabian contexts. The study involved a qualitative and interpretative approach. In-depth interviews with 6 middle managers and school supervisors in 3 English primary schools and 6 middle managers in 3 Saudi Arabian primary schools were conducted to answer the research questions. The study also included ethnographic tools such as observations of a sample of three primary schools in both England and Saudi Arabia where the researcher observed middle managers’ interactions with their peers. The sample of three enabled the study to identify trends and make comparisons between leadership approaches in both systems based on observations without the bias of prescriptions. The use of ethnographic tools not only makes the study empirical but also increases the reliability and validity of the findings by reducing prescriptive bias. The observations will be triangulated with the results of the interviews to draw comparisons and conclusions on whether middle managers act as leaders or as followers in their respective political contexts.

Keywords: education management, government education policies, middle managers, organisational culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should evaluate properly their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, neural networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable of offering an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Vitus Onyebuchim Onyemailu, Olive Obianuju Okalibe

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The study tried to examine relationship between exchange rate variations on the balance of payments in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. Using time series on econometric measures such as Granger causality and ordinary least square (OLS), the study found that exchange rate movements especially the depreciation of naira has not contributed significantly on the balance of payments under the year of the study. The granger result conform the Marshall-Lerner short and long run prepositions that exchange rate devaluation enhances balance of payments. On disaggregation exchange rate granger causes current and capital account balances give the Nigeria data from 1970 to 2012. Overall in the long run OLS regression analysis, exchange rate on semi log functional form, exchange rate variation did not record significant effect on balance of payment equation. This height was also maintained in the current or trade balance which does not match the Marshall-Lerner. The capital account balance in reverse reported a significant impact of exchange rate variability on the capital account balance. Finally, on exchange rate determination equation, where many fundamentals were considered including lagged of exchange rate. Thus, the lagged of exchange rate recorded a positive and significant influence on the present exchange rate. This means that players in the financial markets usually out plays authority’s policy’s stances through their speculative tendencies. The work therefore, recommend that effort should be made by the authorities to providing enabling environment for production of goods and services to triumph in order to take advantages of steady devaluation of its currency. This is done by providing infrastructure, provision of science and technology. Thus, when this is done Nigeria would be able to have competitive power against the rest of the world.

Keywords: exchange rate variation, balance of payments, current account, capital account, Marshall-Lerner hypothesis

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Authors: Berkan Ural, Arif Eser, Sinan Apaydin

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Medical image processing is generally become a challenging task nowadays. Indeed, processing of brain MRI images is one of the difficult parts of this area. This study proposes a hybrid well-defined approach which is consisted from tumor detection, extraction and analyzing steps. This approach is mainly consisted from a computer aided diagnostics system for identifying and detecting the tumor formation in any region of the brain and this system is commonly used for early prediction of brain tumor using advanced image processing and probabilistic neural network methods, respectively. For this approach, generally, some advanced noise removal functions, image processing methods such as automatic segmentation and morphological operations are used to detect the brain tumor boundaries and to obtain the important feature parameters of the tumor region. All stages of the approach are done specifically with using MATLAB software. Generally, for this approach, firstly tumor is successfully detected and the tumor area is contoured with a specific colored circle by the computer aided diagnostics program. Then, the tumor is segmented and some morphological processes are achieved to increase the visibility of the tumor area. Moreover, while this process continues, the tumor area and important shape based features are also calculated. Finally, with using the probabilistic neural network method and with using some advanced classification steps, tumor area and the type of the tumor are clearly obtained. Also, the future aim of this study is to detect the severity of lesions through classes of brain tumor which is achieved through advanced multi classification and neural network stages and creating a user friendly environment using GUI in MATLAB. In the experimental part of the study, generally, 100 images are used to train the diagnostics system and 100 out of sample images are also used to test and to check the whole results. The preliminary results demonstrate the high classification accuracy for the neural network structure. Finally, according to the results, this situation also motivates us to extend this framework to detect and localize the tumors in the other organs.

Keywords: image processing algorithms, magnetic resonance imaging, neural network, pattern recognition

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Authors: Jungbin Lim, Bohee Kang, Heelim Lee, Sunjin Kim, GeumHee Choi, Jae-Suk Jung, Suk Ji

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Nonsurgical periodontal therapies have, for several decades, been the basis of periodontal treatment concepts. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of non-surgical periodontal therapy according to the severity of periodontitis disease. Methods: Retrospective data of patients who visited Department of periodontics in Ajou University Medical Center from 2016 to 2022 were collected. Among the patients, those who took full mouth examination of clinical parameters and non-surgical periodontal therapy were chosen for this study. Selected patients were divided into initial, moderate, and severe periodontitis based on severity and complexity of management (2018 World Workshop EFP/AAP consensus). Recall visits with clinical periodontal examination were scheduled for 1,2,3 months or 1,3,6 months after the treatment. The results were evaluated by recordings of mean probing pocket depth (mean PD), mean clinical attachment levels (mean CAL), bleeding on probing (BOP%), mean gingival index (mean GI), mean regression, mean sulcus bleeding index (mean SBI), mean plaque scores (mean PI). All statistical analyses were performed with R software, version 4.3.0. A level of significance, P<0.05, was considered to be statistically significant. Results: A total of 92 patients were included in this study. 15 patients were diagnosed as initial periodontitis, 14 moderate periodontitis, and 63 severe periodontitis. The all parameters except for mean recession decreased over time in all groups. The amount of mean PD decreased were the greatest in severe periodontitis group followed by moderate and initial, which was found to be statistically significant. The changes of mean PD were 0.15±0.05 mm, 0.37±0.06 mm, and 1.01±0.07 mm (initial, moderate, and severe, respectively, P<0.001). When comparing before and after treatment, the reductions in BOP(%), mean GI, mean SBI, and mean PI were statistically significant. Conclusion: All patients who received non-surgical periodontal therapy showed periodontal healing in terms of improvements in clinical parameters, and it was greater in the severe group.

Keywords: periodontology, clinical periodontology, oral treatment, comprehensive preventive dentistry, non-surgical periodontal therapy

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Authors: Helene Eller

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The aim of non-profit organizations (NPO) is to provide services and goods for its clientele, with profit being a minor objective. By having this definition as the basic purpose of doing business, it is obvious that the goal of an organisation is to serve several bottom lines and not only the financial one. This approach is underpinned by the non-distribution constraint which means that NPO are allowed to make profits to a certain extent, but not to distribute them. The advantage is that there are no single shareholders who might have an interest in the prosperity of the organisation: there is no pie to divide. The gained profits remain within the organisation and will be reinvested in purposeful projects. Good governance is mandatory to support the aim of NPOs. Looking for a measure of good governance the principals of corporate governance (CG) will come in mind. The purpose of CG is direction and control, and in the field of NPO, CG is enlarged to consider the relationship to all important stakeholders who have an impact on the organisation. The recognition of more relevant parties than the shareholder is the link to corporate social responsibility (CSR). It supports a broader view of the bottom line: It is no longer enough to know how profits are used but rather how they are made. Besides, CSR addresses the responsibility of organisations for their impact on society. When transferring the concept of CSR to the non-profit area it will become obvious that CSR with its distinctive features will match the aims of NPOs. As a consequence, NPOs who apply CG apply also CSR to a certain extent. The research is designed as a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis. First, the investigation focuses on the theoretical basis of both concepts. Second, the similarities and differences are outlined and as a result the interconnection of both concepts will show up. The contribution of this research is manifold: The interconnection of both concepts when applied to NPOs has not got any attention in science yet. CSR and governance as integrated concept provides a lot of advantages for NPOs compared to for-profit organisations which are in a steady justification to show the impact they might have on the society. NPOs, however, integrate economic and social aspects as starting point. For NPOs CG is not a mere concept of compliance but rather an enhanced concept integrating a lot of aspects of CSR. There is no “either-nor” between the concepts for NPOs.

Keywords: business ethics, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, non-profit organisations

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Authors: Habtamu Fufa, Yemane Berhane

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Child under nutrition has long-term consequences for intellectual ability, economic productivity, reproductive performance and susceptibility to metabolic and cardiovascular disease. The unacceptably high prevalence of malnutrition in young children of the region has not changed much over the last decades, which could make the achievement of the corresponding Millennium Development Goals very unlikely. Despite the well-documented problems of child malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is few systematic review of evidences on determinants of child malnutrition in the region. The current available evidence on determinants of child under nutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa is systematically reviewed. The method used in searching relevant literature was using bio medical databases PUBMED, Google scholar and the website of the World Health Organization on nutrition using the following key words: "Determinants “, "Child Malnutrition", and "Sub- Saharan Africa". The search was limited to articles published in and after 1995 up to date. In all the reviewed articles, the data were analyzed using multivariate regression analysis and or odds ratios for significance of determinants in child malnutrition. Synthesis of 40 published articles from various countries of the region is done and noted that household economic status, maternal education, disease, breastfeeding practices, age and sex of a child, birth interval and residential areas were found to be determinants of child under nutrition. Poverty remains the main factor of malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa and poor education of parents aggravates the malnutrition through perpetuation of poor nutrition practices. Male children under five years are the most affected ones. Understanding of these determinants of poor nutritional attainment would provide insights in designing interventions for reducing the high levels of child malnutrition in this region. Large-scale multi-sectoral community-based interventions are urgently needed for a sustainable improvement of child nutritional & health status in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: child malnutrition, determinants, Sub-Saharan Africa, health status

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Authors: Anita Ghai

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The present paper explores the imperative to establish disability studies as an independent area of academic inquiry in India through the establishment of specific programmes in disability studies. The case study of the efforts made by the Ambedkar University, Delhi, to develop such programs and courses shall be used to substantiate this imperative as well as to explore some of the challenges entailed. The paper shall explore the certain extent aspects of relevant scholarship in the area of disability studies in India today and critically reflect on the perspectives of disability in this scholarship. The study of disability in India has hitherto been the prerogative of special education, rehabilitation psychology, and social work departments. While instances of these departments adopting critical approaches to disability can be identified, their empirical focus has perpetuated the production of disability as the site of suffering and oppression. The complex cultural, phenomenological, historical and economic discourses within which disability is embedded can be better captured within distinctive programmes that have disability sui generis as their focus. Such programs would foreground disability as an epistemology, which universalizes the study of disability from disabled people alone to an analysis of various other groups who have been historically marginalized. It will also play an important role in recuperating disability from a state of alterity. The interdisciplinary nature of disability studies offers an opportunity to integrate perspectives from the humanities and the social sciences in the proposed programs. Some of the challenges or rather aspects of reflection that emerge in the course of developing these programs are the criteria for determining the suitability of faculty to teach these programs and the challenges in identifying faculty and in addressing any apprehensions about career prospects that prospective students might have. The manner in which these concerns are being addressed through the collaboration of expertise as well as through the interdisciplinary and flexible nature of the program shall be addressed in the course of the paper. In conclusion, the paper shall foreground the need for disability studies programs in India, the re-appropriation of existing scholarship in the process of formulation these programs, emerging concerns and the manner in which these concerns will be addressed.

Keywords: academia, disability studies, epistemology, India

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Authors: U. Ali Rahoma, Nabil Esawy, Fawzia Ibrahim Moursy, A. H. Hassan, Samy A. Khalil, Ashraf S. Khamees

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The design of any solar energy conversion system requires the knowledge of solar radiation data obtained over a long period. Satellite data has been widely used to estimate solar energy where no ground observation of solar radiation is available, yet there are limitations on the temporal coverage of satellite data. Reanalysis is a “retrospective analysis” of the atmosphere parameters generated by assimilating observation data from various sources, including ground observation, satellites, ships, and aircraft observation with the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, to develop an exhaustive record of weather and climate parameters. The evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa against high-quality surface measured data was performed using statistical analysis. The estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) distribution over six different selected locations in North Africa during ten years from the period time 2011 to 2020. The root means square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of reanalysis data of solar radiation range from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.0145 to 0.198, and 0.055 to 0.178, respectively. The seasonal statistical analysis was performed to study seasonal variation of performance of datasets, which reveals the significant variation of errors in different seasons—the performance of the dataset changes by changing the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison. The monthly mean values of data show better performance, but the accuracy of data is compromised. The solar radiation data of ERA-5 is used for preliminary solar resource assessment and power estimation. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% for the different selected sites in North Africa in the present research. The goal of this research is to give a good representation for global solar radiation to help in solar energy application in all fields, and this can be done by using gridded data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and producing a new model to give a good result.

Keywords: solar energy, solar radiation, ERA-5, potential energy

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Authors: Vasoontara Yiengprugsawan, Sam-ang Seubsman

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As Thais live longer, caregivers will become even more important to social and healthcare systems. Commonly reported in many low and middle‐income countries in Asia, formal social welfare services to support caregivers are lacking and informal family support will be required for all levels of care. In 2005, 87,151 open‐university adults were recruited to the Thai Cohort Study, with the majority aged between 25 and 39 years, and residing nationwide. At the 4‐year follow up in 2009 (n=60569) and the 8‐year follow‐up in 2013 (n=42785), prospective cohort participants were asked if they provide care for chronically ill, disabled, or frail family members. Among Thai cohort members reporting between 2009 and 2013, approximately 56% were not caregivers in either year, 24.5% reported providing care in 2009 only, 8.6% in 2013 only, and 10.6% reported providing care at both time points. Caregivers in the cohort reported providing financial support, help with shopping, emotional support, and assist with daily activities. Kessler 6 psychological distress scale, measured in both 2009 and 2013, was used as the primary outcome of a relationship between caregiving status and mental health. Using multivariate logistic regression, our 4‐year longitudinal findings revealed that cohort members who reported providing care at both time points were 1.4 to 1.6 times more likely to report high psychological distress than non‐caregivers, after accounting for potential covariates. With increasing needs for informal care provided by family members, the future health and social welfare system will need to provide adequate support to caregivers (e.g., respite care, clinical support and information for the family, and awareness of mental health among caregivers).

Keywords: family caregivers, psychological distress, prospective cohort, longitudinal study, Thailand

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Authors: Amizawati Mohd Amir, Ruhanita Maelah, Zaidi Mohd Noor

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As part of the Malaysia Higher Institutions' Strategic Plan in promoting high-quality research and education, the Ministry of Higher Education has introduced various instrument to assess the universities performance. The aims are that university will produce more commercially-oriented research and continue to contribute in producing professional workforce for domestic and foreign needs. Yet the spirit of the success lies in the commitment of university particularly the academic staff to translate the vision into reality. For that reason, the element of fairness and justice in assessing individual academic staff performance is crucial to promote directly linked between university and individual work goals. Focusing on public research universities (RUs) in Malaysia, this study observes at the issue through the practice of university contemporary performance measurement system. Accordingly management control theory has conceptualized that contemporary performance measurement consisting of three dimension namely strategic, comprehensive and dynamic building upon equity theory, the relationships between contemporary performance measurement system and organizational justice and in turn the effect on academic staff work performance are tested based on online survey data administered on 365 academic staff from public RUs, which were analyzed using statistics analysis SPSS and Equation Structure Modeling. The findings validated the presence of strategic, comprehensive and dynamic in the contemporary performance measurement system. The empirical evidence also indicated that contemporary performance measure and procedural justice are significantly associated with work performance but not for distributive justice. Furthermore, procedural justice does mediate the relationship between contemporary performance measurement and academic staff work performance. Evidently, this study provides evidence on the importance of perceptions of justice towards influencing academic staff work performance. This finding may be a fruitful input in the setting up academic staff performance assessment policy.

Keywords: comprehensive, dynamic, distributive justice, contemporary performance measurement system, strategic, procedure justice, work performance

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Authors: Ochuko K. Overen, Golden Makaka, Edson L. Meyer, Sampson Mamphweli

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Low-cost housing provided for people with small incomes in South Africa are characterized by poor thermal performance. This is due to inferior craftsmanship with no regard to energy efficient design during the building process. On average, South African households spend 14% of their total monthly income on energy needs, in particular space heating; which is higher than the international benchmark of 10% for energy poverty. Adopting energy efficient passive solar design strategies and superior thermal building materials can create a stable thermal comfort environment indoors. Thereby, reducing energy consumption for space heating. The aim of this study is to analyse the thermal behaviour of a low-cost house integrated with passive solar design features. A low-cost passive solar house with superstructure fly ash brick walls was designed and constructed in Somerset East, South Africa. Indoor and outdoor meteorological parameters of the house were monitored for a period of one year. The ASTM E741-11 Standard was adopted to perform ventilation test in the house. In summer, the house was found to be thermally comfortable for 66% of the period monitored, while for winter it was about 79%. The ventilation heat flow rate of the windows and doors were found to be 140 J/s and 68 J/s, respectively. Air leakage through cracks and openings in the building envelope was 0.16 m3/m2h with a corresponding ventilation heat flow rate of 24 J/s. The indoor carbon dioxide concentration monitored overnight was found to be 0.248%, which is less than the maximum range limit of 0.500%. The prediction percentage dissatisfaction of the house shows that 86% of the occupants will express the thermal satisfaction of the indoor environment. With a good operation of the house, it can create a well-ventilated, thermal comfortable and nature luminous indoor environment for the occupants. Incorporating passive solar design in low-cost housing can be one of the long and immediate solutions to the energy crisis facing South Africa.

Keywords: energy efficiency, low-cost housing, passive solar design, rural development, thermal comfort

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Authors: Paul Narh Doku

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The relationship between parental HIV/AIDS status or death and child mental health is well known, although the role of child maltreatment as a confounder or mediator in this relationship remains uncertain. This study examined the potential path mechanism through child maltreatment mediating the link between HIV/AIDS family dysfunction trajectories and psychosocial problems. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the Lower Manya Municipal Assembly of Ghana. A questionnaire which consisted of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), Social and Health Assessment (SAHA), Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES), and the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS) was completed by 291 adolescents. Controlling for relevant sociodemographic confounders, mediation analyses using linear regression were fitted to examine whether the association between family dysfunction and psychosocial problems is mediated by child maltreatment. The results indicate that, among adolescents, child maltreatment fully mediated the association between being orphaned by AIDS and self-esteem, delinquency and risky behaviours, and peer problems. Similarly, child maltreatment fully mediated the association between living with an HIV/AIDS-infected parent and self-esteem, delinquency and risky behaviours, depression/emotional problems, and peer problems. Partial mediation was found for hyperactivity. Child maltreatment mediates the association between the family dysfunction trajectories of parental HIV/AIDS or death and psychosocial problems among adolescents. This implies that efforts to address child maltreatment among families affected by HIV/AIDS may be helpful in the prevention of psychosocial problems among these children, thus enhancing their well-being. The findings, therefore, underscore the need for comprehensive psychosocial interventions that address both the unique negative exposures of HIV/AIDS and maltreatment for children affected by HIV.

Keywords: child maltreatment, child abuse, mental health, psychosocial problems, domestic violence, HIV/AIDS, adolescents

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Authors: James M. Wakiru, Liliane Pintelon, Peter Muchiri, Stanley Mburu

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Maintenance performance measurement (MPM) represents an integrated aspect that considers both operational and maintenance related aspects while evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of maintenance to ensure assets are working as they should. Three salient issues require to be addressed for an asset-intensive organization to employ an MPM-based framework to optimize maintenance. Firstly, the organization should establish important perfomance metric(s), in this case the maintenance objective(s), which they will be focuss on. The second issue entails aligning the maintenance objective(s) with maintenance optimization. This is achieved by deriving maintenance performance indicators that subsequently form an objective function for the optimization program. Lastly, the objective function is employed in an optimization program to derive maintenance decision support. In this study, we develop a framework that initially identifies the crucial maintenance performance measures, and employs them to derive maintenance decision support. The proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a geothermal drilling rig, where the objective function is evaluated utilizing a simulation-based model whose parameters are derived from empirical maintenance data. Availability, reliability and maintenance inventory are depicted as essential objectives requiring further attention. A simulation model is developed mimicking a drilling rig operations and maintenance where the sub-systems are modelled undergoing imperfect maintenance, corrective (CM) and preventive (PM), with the total cost as the primary performance measurement. Moreover, three maintenance spare inventory policies are considered; classical (retaining stocks for a contractual period), vendor-managed inventory with consignment stock and periodic monitoring order-to-stock (s, S) policy. Optimization results infer that the adoption of (s, S) inventory policy, increased PM interval and reduced reliance of CM actions offers improved availability and total costs reduction.

Keywords: maintenance, vendor-managed, decision support, performance, optimization

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Authors: Radin Siti Aishah Radin A Rahman, Norasmah Othman, Zaidatol Akmaliah Lope Pihie, Hariyaty Ab. Wahid

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The recent instability in economy was found to be influencing the situation in Malaysia whether directly or indirectly. Taking that into consideration, the government needs to find the best approach to balance its citizen’s socio-economic strata level urgently. Through education platform is among the efforts planned and acted upon for the purpose of balancing the effects of the influence, through the exposure of social entrepreneurial activity towards youth especially those in higher institution level. Armed with knowledge and skills that they gained, with the support by entrepreneurial culture and environment while in campus; indirectly, the students will lean more on making social entrepreneurship as a career option when they graduate. Following the issues of marketability and workability of current graduates that are becoming dire, research involving how far the willingness of student to create social innovation that contribute to the society without focusing solely on personal gain is relevant enough to be conducted. With that, this research is conducted with the purpose of identifying the level of entrepreneurial intention and social entrepreneurship among higher institution students in Malaysia. Stratified random sampling involves 355 undergraduate students from five public universities had been made as research respondents and data were collected through surveys. The data was then analyzed descriptively using min score and standard deviation. The study found that the entrepreneurial intention of higher education students are on moderate level, however it is the contrary for social entrepreneurship activities, where it was shown on a high level. This means that while the students only have moderate level of willingness to be a social entrepreneur, they are very committed to created social innovation through the social entrepreneurship activities conducted. The implication from this study can be contributed towards the higher institution authorities in prediction the tendency of student in becoming social entrepreneurs. Thus, the opportunities and facilities for realizing the courses related to social entrepreneurship must be created expansively so that the vision of creating as many social entrepreneurs as possible can be achieved.

Keywords: entrepreneurial intention, higher education institutions (HEIs), social entrepreneurship, social entrepreneurial activity, gender

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Authors: Ima Rahmawati, Nur Hafizul Kalam

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Development of industrial and economic sectors in various countries very rapidly caused raising the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Greenhouse gases are dominated by carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere that make the surface temperature of the earth always increase. The increasing gases caused by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels such as petroleum and coals and also high rate of deforestation. Yogyakarta Special Province which every year always become tourist destination, has a great potency in increasing of greenhouse gas emissions mainly from the incomplete combustion. One of effort to reduce the concentration of gases in the atmosphere is keeping and empowering the existing forests in the Province of Yogyakarta, especially forest in Kulonprogro is to be maintained the greenness so that it can absorb and store carbon maximally. Remote sensing technology can be used to determine the ability of forests to absorb carbon and it is connected to the density of vegetation. The purpose of this study is to determine the density of the biomass of forest vegetation and determine the ability of forests to store carbon through Photo-interpretation and Geographic Information System approach. Remote sensing imagery that used in this study is LANDSAT 8 OLI year 2015 recording. LANDSAT 8 OLI imagery has 30 meters spatial resolution for multispectral bands and it can give general overview the condition of the carbon stored from every density of existing vegetation. The method is the transformation of vegetation index combined with allometric calculation of field data then doing regression analysis. The results are model maps of density and capability level of forest vegetation in Kulonprogro, Yogyakarta in storing carbon.

Keywords: remote sensing, carbon, kulonprogo, forest vegetation, vegetation index

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Authors: Masoud Ghaemi, Mohammadjafar Hedayati, Faezeh Yousefzadeh, Hoseinali Heydarzadeh

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Careful monitoring in the earth dams to measure deformation caused by settlement and movement has always been a concern for engineers in the field. In order to measure settlement and deformation of earth dams, usually, the precision instruments of settlement set and combined Inclinometer that is commonly referred to IS instrument will be used. In some dams, because the thickness of alluvium is high and there is no possibility of alluvium removal (technically and economically and in terms of performance), there is no possibility of placing the end of IS instrument (precision instruments of Inclinometer-settlement set) in the rock foundation. Inevitably, have to accept installing pipes in the weak and deformable alluvial foundation that leads to errors in the calculation of the actual settlement (absolute settlement) in different parts of the dam body. The purpose of this paper is to present new and refine criteria for predicting settlement and deformation in earth dams. The study is based on conditions in three dams with a deformation quite alluvial (Agh Chai, Narmashir and Gilan-e Gharb) to provide settlement criteria affected by the alluvial foundation. To achieve this goal, the settlement of dams was simulated by using the finite difference method with FLAC3D software, and then the modeling results were compared with the reading IS instrument. In the end, the caliber of the model and validate the results, by using regression analysis techniques and scrutinized modeling parameters with real situations and then by using MATLAB software and CURVE FITTING toolbox, new criteria for the settlement based on elasticity modulus, cohesion, friction angle, the density of earth dam and the alluvial foundation was obtained. The results of these studies show that, by using the new criteria measures, the amount of settlement and deformation for the dams with alluvial foundation can be corrected after instrument readings, and the error rate in reading IS instrument can be greatly reduced.

Keywords: earth-fill dam, foundation, settlement, finite difference, MATLAB, curve fitting

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Authors: Javier Muro, Anja Linstadter, Florian Manner, Lisa Schwarz, Stephan Wollauer, Paul Magdon, Gohar Ghazaryan, Olena Dubovyk

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Monitoring the trade-off between biomass production and biodiversity in grasslands is critical to evaluate the effects of management practices across environmental gradients. New generations of remote sensing sensors and machine learning approaches can model grasslands’ characteristics with varying accuracies. However, studies often fail to cover a sufficiently broad range of environmental conditions, and evidence suggests that prediction models might be case specific. In this study, biomass production and biodiversity indices (species richness and Fishers’ α) are modeled in 150 grassland plots for three sites across Germany. These sites represent a North-South gradient and are characterized by distinct soil types, topographic properties, climatic conditions, and management intensities. Predictors used are derived from Sentinel-1 & 2 and a set of topoedaphic variables. The transferability of the models is tested by training and validating at different sites. The performance of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNN) is compared to a random forest algorithm. While biomass predictions across gradients and sites were acceptable (r2 0.5), predictions of biodiversity indices were poor (r2 0.14). DNN showed higher generalization capacity than random forest when predicting biomass across gradients and sites (relative root mean squared error of 0.5 for DNN vs. 0.85 for random forest). DNN also achieved high performance when using the Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data rather than different combinations of spectral indices, Sentinel-1 data, or topoedaphic variables, simplifying dimensionality. This study demonstrates the necessity of training biomass and biodiversity models using a broad range of environmental conditions and ensuring spatial independence to have realistic and transferable models where plot level information can be upscaled to landscape scale.

Keywords: ecosystem services, grassland management, machine learning, remote sensing

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Yeganeh Attari, Gudmund Reidar Eiksund, Hans Peter Jostad

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In Geotechnical practice, there is no standard method recognized by the industry to account for the reduction of safety factor of a slope as an effect of soil displacement and pore pressure build-up during pile installation. Pile driving disturbs causes large strains and generates excess pore pressures in a zone that can extend many diameters from the installed pile, resulting in a decrease of the shear strength of the surrounding soil. This phenomenon may cause slope failure. Moreover, dissipation of excess pore pressure set-up may cause weakening of areas outside the volume of soil remoulded during installation. Because of complex interactions between changes in mean stress and shearing, it is challenging to predict installation induced pore pressure response. Furthermore, it is a complex task to follow the rate and path of pore pressure dissipation in order to analyze slope stability. In cohesive soils it is necessary to implement soil models that account for strain softening in the analysis. In the literature, several cases of slope failure due to pile driving activities have been reported, for instance, a landslide in Gothenburg that resulted in a slope failure destroying more than thirty houses and Rigaud landslide in Quebec which resulted in loss of life. Up to now, several methods have been suggested to predict the effect of pile driving on total and effective stress, pore pressure changes and their effect on soil strength. However, this is still not well understood or agreed upon. In Norway, general approaches applied by geotechnical engineers for this problem are based on old empirical methods with little accurate theoretical background. While the limitations of such methods are discussed, this paper attempts to capture the reduction in the factor of safety of a slope during pile driving, using coupled Finite Element analysis and cavity expansion method. This is demonstrated by analyzing a case of slope failure due to pile driving in Norway.

Keywords: cavity expansion method, excess pore pressure, pile driving, slope failure

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Authors: Maliheh Raji, Hossein Abolghasemi, Jaber Safdari, Ali Kargari

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Samarium as a rare-earth element is playing a growing important role in high technology. Traditional methods for extraction of rare earth metals such as ion exchange and solvent extraction have disadvantages of high investment and high energy consumption. Emulsion liquid membrane (ELM) as an improved solvent extraction technique is an effective transport method for separation of various compounds from aqueous solutions. In this work, the extraction of samarium from aqueous solutions by ELM was investigated using response surface methodology (RSM). The organic membrane phase of the ELM was a nanofluid consisted of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT), Span80 as surfactant, Cyanex 272 as mobile carrier, and kerosene as base fluid. 1 M nitric acid solution was used as internal aqueous phase. The effects of the important process parameters on samarium extraction were investigated, and the values of these parameters were optimized using the Central Composition Design (CCD) of RSM. These parameters were the concentration of MWCNT in nanofluid, the carrier concentration, and the volume ratio of organic membrane phase to internal phase (Roi). The three-dimensional (3D) response surfaces of samarium extraction efficiency were obtained to visualize the individual and interactive effects of the process variables. A regression model for % extraction was developed, and its adequacy was evaluated. The result shows that % extraction improves by using MWCNT nanofluid in organic membrane phase and extraction efficiency of 98.92% can be achieved under the optimum conditions. In addition, demulsification was successfully performed and the recycled membrane phase was proved to be effective in the optimum condition.

Keywords: Cyanex 272, emulsion liquid membrane, MWCNT nanofluid, response surface methology, Samarium

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Authors: Ebenezer Amoquandoh, Daniel Bruce Sarpong, Godfred K. Ofosu-Budu, Andreas Fliessbach

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Soil quality is at stake globally, but under tropical conditions, the loss of soil fertility may be existential. The current rates of soil nutrient depletion, erosion and environmental degradation in most of Africa’s farmland urgently require methods for soil fertility restoration through affordable agricultural management techniques. The study assessed the effects of locally available organic resources to improve soil fertility, crop yield and profitability compared to business as usual on farms in the Eastern and Greater Accra regions of Ghana. Apart from this, we analyzed the change of farmers’ perceptions and knowledge upon the experience with the new techniques; the effect of using locally available organic resource on farmers’ yield and determined the factors influencing the profitability of farming. Using the Difference in Mean Score and Proportion to estimate the extent to which farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and practices have changed, the study showed that farmers’ perception, knowledge and practice on the use of locally available organic resources have changed significantly. This paves way for the sustainable use of locally available organic resource for soil fertility improvement. The Propensity Score Matching technique and Endogenous Switching Regression model used showed that using locally available organic resources have the potential to increase crop yield. It was also observed that using the Profit Margin, Net Farm Income and Return on Investment analysis, it is more profitable to use locally available organic resources than other soil fertility amendments techniques studied. The results further showed that socioeconomic, farm characteristics and institutional factors are significant in influencing farmers’ decision to use locally available organic resources and profitability.

Keywords: soil fertility, locally available organic resources, perception, profitability, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Rui Miguel Costa, Jose Pestana, David Costa, Paula Mangia, Catarina Correia, Mafalda Pinto Coelho

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There is lack of studies examining the relation of different heart rate variability (HRV) parameters with the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED) in younger men. Thus, the present study aimed at examining, in a nonclinical sample of men aged 19-39 years old (mean age = 23.98 years, SD = 4.90), the relations of risk of ED with the standard deviation of the heart rate (SD of HR), high and low frequency power of HRV, and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Eighty-three heterosexual Portuguese men completed the 5-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) and HRV parameters were calculated from a 5-minute resting period. Risk of ED was determined by IIEF-5 scores of 21 or less. Fifteen men (18.1%) reported symptoms of ED (14 with mild and one with mild to moderate symptoms). Univariate analyses of variance revealed that risk of ED was related to lesser SD of HR and lesser low-frequency power, the two HRV parameters that express a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone. Risk of ED was unrelated to high-frequency power and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Further, in a logistic regression, the risk of ED was independently predicted by older age and lower SD of HR, but not by low-frequency power, having a regular sexual partner, and cohabiting. The results provide preliminary evidence that, in younger men, a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone, as indexed by the SD of HR, is important for erections. Greater resting SD of HR might reflect better vascular and interpersonal function via vagal tone coupled with greater motor mobilization to pursue sexual intercourse via sympathetic tone. Many interventions can elevate HRV; future research is warranted on how they can be tailored to treat ED in younger men.

Keywords: erectile dysfunction, heart rate variability, standard deviation of the heart rate, younger men

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 95