Search results for: generalized linear model

Authors: Zabihullah Mahdi, Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi

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Afghanistan is located in a tectonically complex and dynamic area, surrounded by rocks that originated on the mother continent of Gondwanaland. The northern Afghanistan basin, which runs along the country's northern border, has the potential for petroleum generation and accumulation. The Amu Darya basin has the largest petroleum potential in the region. Sedimentation occurred in the Amu Darya basin from the Jurassic to the Eocene epochs. Kashkari oil field is located in northern Afghanistan's Amu Darya basin. The field structure consists of a narrow northeast-southwest (NE-SW) anticline with two structural highs, the northwest limb being mild and the southeast limb being steep. The first oil production well in the Kashkari oil field was drilled in 1976, and a total of ten wells were drilled in the area between 1976 and 1979. The amount of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Kashkari oil field, based on the results of surveys and calculations conducted by research institutions, is estimated to be around 140 MMbbls. The objective of this study is to increase recoverable oil reserves in the Kashkari oil field through the implementation of low-salinity water flooding (LSWF) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique. The LSWF involved conducting a core flooding laboratory test consisting of four sequential steps with varying salinities. The test commenced with the use of formation water (FW) as the initial salinity, which was subsequently reduced to a salinity level of 0.1%. Afterward, the numerical simulation model of core scale oil recovery by LSWF was designed by Computer Modelling Group’s General Equation Modeler (CMG-GEM) software to evaluate the applicability of the technology to the field scale. Next, the Kahskari oil field simulation model was designed, and the LSWF method was applied to it. To obtain reasonable results, laboratory settings (temperature, pressure, rock, and oil characteristics) are designed as far as possible based on the condition of the Kashkari oil field, and several injection and production patterns are investigated. The relative permeability of oil and water in this study was obtained using Corey’s equation. In the Kashkari oilfield simulation model, three models: 1. Base model (with no water injection), 2. FW injection model, and 3. The LSW injection model was considered for the evaluation of the LSWF effect on oil recovery. Based on the results of the LSWF laboratory experiment and computer simulation analysis, the oil recovery increased rapidly after the FW was injected into the core. Subsequently, by injecting 1% salinity water, a gradual increase of 4% oil can be observed. About 6.4% of the field is produced by the application of the LSWF technique. The results of LSWF (salinity 0.1%) on the Kashkari oil field suggest that this technology can be a successful method for developing Kashkari oil production.

Keywords: low-salinity water flooding, immiscible displacement, Kashkari oil field, two-phase flow, numerical reservoir simulation model

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Amin Mohamed Nassar

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Wind energy is a fluctuating energy source unlike conventional power plants, thus, it is necessary to accurately predict short term wind speed to integrate wind energy in the electricity supply structure. To do so, we present a hybrid artificial intelligence model of short term wind speed prediction based on passive aggregation of the particle swarm optimization and neural networks. As a result, improvement of the prediction accuracy is obviously obtained compared to the standard artificial intelligence method.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neural networks, particle swarm optimization, passive aggregation, wind speed prediction

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Authors: Iman Zafarparandeh, Muzammil Mumtaz, Paniz Taherzadeh, Deniz Erbulut

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The instability in the atlantoaxial joint may occur due to cervical surgery, congenital anomalies, and trauma. There are different types of fixation techniques proposed for restoring the stability and preventing harmful neurological deterioration. Application of the screw constructs has become a popular alternative to the older techniques for stabilizing the joint. The main difference between the various screw constructs is the type of the screw which can be lateral mass screw, pedicle screw, transarticular screw, and translaminar screw. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of three popular screw constructs fixation techniques on the biomechanics of the atlantoaxial joint using the finite element (FE) method. A three-dimensional FE model of the upper cervical spine including the skull, C1 and C2 vertebrae, and groups of the existing ligaments were developed. The accurate geometry of the model was obtained from the CT data of a 35-year old male. Three screw constructs were designed to compare; Magerl transarticular screw (TA-Screw), Goel-Harms lateral mass screw and pedicle screw (LM-Screw and Pedicle-Screw), and Wright lateral mass screw and translaminar screw (LM-Screw and TL-Screw). Pure moments were applied to the model in the three main planes; flexion (Flex), extension (Ext), axial rotation (AR) and lateral bending (LB). The range of motion (ROM) of C0-C1 and C1-C2 segments for the implanted FE models are compared to the intact FE model and the in vitro study of Panjabi (1988). The Magerl technique showed less effect on the ROM of C0-C1 than the other two techniques in sagittal plane. In lateral bending and axial rotation, the Goel-Harms and Wright techniques showed less effect on the ROM of C0-C1 than the Magerl technique. The Magerl technique has the highest fusion rate as 99% in all loading directions for the C1-C2 segment. The Wright technique has the lowest fusion rate in LB as 79%. The three techniques resulted in the same fusion rate in extension loading as 99%. The maximum stress for the Magerl technique is the lowest in all load direction compared to other two techniques. The maximum stress in all direction was 234 Mpa and occurred in flexion with the Wright technique. The maximum stress for the Goel-Harms and Wright techniques occurred in lateral mass screw. The ROM obtained from the FE results support this idea that the fusion rate of the Magerl is more than 99%. Moreover, the maximum stress occurred in each screw constructs proves the less failure possibility for the Magerl technique. Another advantage of the Magerl technique is the less number of components compared to other techniques using screw constructs. Despite the benefits of the Magerl technique, there are drawbacks to using this method such as reduction of the C1 and C2 before screw placement. Therefore, other fixation methods such as Goel-Harms and Wright techniques find the solution for the drawbacks of the Magerl technique by adding screws separately to C1 and C2. The FE model implanted with the Wright technique showed the highest maximum stress almost in all load direction.

Keywords: cervical spine, finite element model, atlantoaxial, fixation technique

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Authors: Vinay Kumar Vanjakula, Frank Adam, Nils Goseberg, Christian Windt

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When a structure is installed on a seabed, the presence of the structure will influence the flow field around it. The changes in the flow field include, formation of vortices, turbulence generation, waves or currents flow breaking and pressure differentials around the seabed sediment. These changes allow the local seabed sediment to be carried off and results in Scour (erosion). These are a threat to the structure's stability. In recent decades, rapid developments of research work and the knowledge of scour On fixed structures (bridges and Monopiles) in rivers and oceans has been carried out, and very limited research work on scour and liquefaction for gravity anchors, particularly for floating Tension Leg Platform (TLP) substructures. Due to its importance and need for enhancement of knowledge in scour and liquefaction around marine structures, the MarTERA funded a three-year (2020-2023) research program called NuLIMAS (Numerical Modeling of Liquefaction Around Marine Structures). It’s a group consists of European institutions (Universities, laboratories, and consulting companies). The objective of this study is to build a numerical model that replicates the reality, which indeed helps to simulate (predict) underwater flow conditions and to study different marine scour and Liquefication situations. It helps to design a heavyweight anchor for the TLP substructure and to minimize the time and expenditure on experiments. And also, the achieved results and the numerical model will be a basis for the development of other design and concepts For marine structures. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical model will build in OpenFOAM. A conceptual design of heavyweight anchor for TLP substructure is designed through taking considerations of available state-of-the-art knowledge on scour and Liquefication concepts and references to Previous existing designs. These conceptual designs are validated with the available similar experimental benchmark data and also with the CFD numerical benchmark standards (CFD quality assurance study). CFD optimization model/tool is designed as to minimize the effect of fluid flow, scour, and Liquefication. A parameterized model is also developed to automate the calculation process to reduce user interactions. The parameters such as anchor Lowering Process, flow optimized outer contours, seabed interaction study, and FSSI (Fluid-Structure-Seabed Interactions) are investigated and used to carve the model as to build an optimized anchor.

Keywords: gravity anchor, liquefaction, scour, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Gerald Steyn

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Despite the huge number of identical, tiny, boxy, freestanding houses built by the South African government after the advent of democracy in 1994, squatter camps continue to mushroom, and there is no evidence that the backlog is being reduced. Not only is the wasteful low-density detached-unit approach of the past being perpetuated, but the social, spatial, and economic marginalization is worse than before 1994. The situation is precarious since squatters are vulnerable to fires and flooding. At the same time, the occupants of the housing schemes are trapped far from employment opportunities or any public amenities. Despite these insecurities, the architectural, urban design, and city planning professions are puzzlingly quiet. Design projects address these issues only at the universities, albeit inevitably with somewhat Utopian notions. Geoffrey Payne, the renowned urban housing and urban development consultant and researcher focusing on issues in the Global South, once proclaimed that “we do not have a housing problem – we have a settlement problem.” This dictum was used as the guiding philosophy to conceptualize urban design and architectural principles that foreground the needs of low-income households and allow them to be fully integrated into the larger conurbation. Information was derived from intensive research over two decades, involving frequent visits to informal settlements, historic Black townships, and rural villages. Observations, measured site surveys, and interviews resulted in several scholarly articles from which a set of desirable urban and architectural criteria could be extracted. To formulate culturally appropriate design principles, existing vernacular and informal patterns were analyzed, reconciled with contemporary designs that align with the requirements for the envisaged settlement attributes, and reimagined as residential design principles. Five interrelated design principles are proposed, ranging in scale from (1) Integrating informal settlements into the city, (2) linear neighborhoods, (3) market streets as wards, (4) linear neighborhoods, and (5) typologies and densities for clustered and aggregated patios and courtyards. Each design principle is described, first in terms of its context and associated issues of concern, followed by a discussion of the patterns available to inform a possible solution, and finally, an explanation and graphic illustration of the proposed design. The approach is predominantly bottom-up since each of the five principles is unfolded from existing informal and vernacular practices studied in situ. They are, however, articulated and represented in terms of contemporary design language. Contrary to an idealized vision of housing for South Africa’s low-income urban households, this study proposes actual principles for critical assessment by peers in the tradition of architectural research in design.

Keywords: culturally appropriate design principles, informal settlements, South Africa’s housing backlog, squatter camps

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Authors: Lu Lin

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Urbanization has reshaped physical environment, energy consumption and carbon emission of the urban area. China is a typical developing country under a rapid urbanization process and is the world largest carbon emission country. This study aims to explore the correlation between urban form and carbon emission caused by urban energy consumption in China. 287 provincial-level and prefecture-level cities are studied in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Compact ratio index, shape index, and fractal dimension index are used to quantify urban form. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is employed to explore the relationship between urban form, energy consumption, and related carbon emission. The results show the average compact ratio index decreased from 2000 to 2010 which indicates urban in China sprawled. The average fractal dimension index increases by 3%, indicating the spatial layouts of China's cities were more complicated. The results by the GWR model show that shape index and fractal dimension index had a non-significant relationship with carbon emission by urban energy consumption. However, compact urban form reduced carbon emission. The findings of this study will help policy-makers make sustainable urban planning and reduce urban carbon emission.

Keywords: carbon emission, GWR model, urban energy consumption, urban form

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Authors: Ridha Zgolli, Hatem Kanfoudi

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Cavitating flows inside a diesel injection nozzle hole were simulated using a mixture model. A 2D numerical model is proposed in this paper to simulate steady cavitating flows. The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved for the liquid and vapor mixture, which is considered as a single fluid with variable density which is expressed as function of the vapor volume fraction. The closure of this variable is provided by the transport equation with a source term TEM. The processes of evaporation and condensation are governed by changes in pressure within the flow. The source term is implanted in the CFD code ANSYS CFX. The influence of numerical and physical parameters is presented in details. The numerical simulations are in good agreement with the experimental data for steady flow.

Keywords: cavitation, injection nozzle, numerical simulation, k–ω

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Authors: Imran Hashmi, Sipkaduwa Arachchige Sashika Sureni Wickramasooriya

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Gene-drive technology has emerged as a promising tool for disease control by influencing the population dynamics of disease-carrying organisms. Various gene drive mechanisms, derived from global laboratory experiments, aim to strategically manage and prevent the spread of targeted diseases. One prominent strategy involves population replacement, wherein genetically modified mosquitoes are introduced to replace the existing local wild population. To enhance our understanding and aid in the design of effective release strategies, we employ a comprehensive mathematical model. The utilized approach employs agent-based modeling, enabling the consideration of individual mosquito attributes and flexibility in parameter manipulation. Through the integration of an agent-based model and a meta-population spatial approach, the dynamics of gene drive mosquito spreading in a released site are simulated. The model's outcomes offer valuable insights into future population dynamics, providing guidance for the development of informed release strategies. This research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on the responsible and effective implementation of gene drive technology for disease vector control.

Keywords: gene drive, agent-based modeling, disease-carrying organisms, malaria

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Authors: Iris Vogeler, Rogerio Cichota, Armin Werner

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Dairy farms are under pressure to increase productivity while reducing environmental impacts. Effective fertiliser management practices are critical to achieve this. Determination of optimum nitrogen (N) fertilisation rates which maximise pasture growth and minimise N losses is challenging due to variability in plant requirements and likely near-future supply of N by the soil. Remote sensing can be used for mapping N nutrition status of plants and to rapidly assess the spatial variability within a field. An algorithm is, however, lacking which relates the N status of the plants to the expected yield response to additions of N. The aim of this simulation study was to develop a multi-variate model for determining N fertilisation rate for a target percentage of the maximum achievable yield based on the pasture N concentration (ii) use of an algorithm for guiding fertilisation rates, and (iii) evaluation of the model regarding pasture yield and N losses, including N leaching, denitrification and volatilisation. A simulation study was carried out using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). The simulations were done for an irrigated ryegrass pasture in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. A multi-variate model was developed and used to determine monthly required N fertilisation rates based on pasture N content prior to fertilisation and targets of 50, 75, 90 and 100% of the potential monthly yield. These monthly optimised fertilisation rules were evaluated by running APSIM for a ten-year period to provide yield and N loss estimates from both nonurine and urine affected areas. Comparison with typical fertilisation rates of 150 and 400 kg N/ha/year was also done. Assessment of pasture yield and leaching from fertiliser and urine patches indicated a large reduction in N losses when N fertilisation rates were controlled by the multi-variate model. However, the reduction in leaching losses was much smaller when taking into account the effects of urine patches. The proposed approach based on biophysical modelling to develop a multi-variate model for determining optimum N fertilisation rates dependent on pasture N content is very promising. Further analysis, under different environmental conditions and validation is required before the approach can be used to help adjust fertiliser management practices to temporal and spatial N demand based on the nitrogen status of the pasture.

Keywords: APSIM modelling, optimum N fertilization rate, pasture N content, ryegrass pasture, three dimensional surface response function.

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Authors: Marina S. Basta, Kirollos S. Basta

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Cosmetic dermatology procedures have witnessed exponential growth and diversification over the last 10 years. Thus, the purpose of this study was to collect data about the latest trends for cosmetic procedures reported by dermatologists during the year 2018. This study was performed by American Society for Dermatologic Surgery (ASDS) in 2018 through sending survey invitations to 3,358 practicing dermatologists in the U.S. containing streamline questions as well as statistical questions targeted to specific analysis of cosmetic dermatology trends. Out of the targeted physicians, only 596 dermatologists reply to the survey invitation (15% overall response rate). It was noted that data collected from that survey was generalized to represent all ASDS members. Results show that there is an increase in cosmetic dermatology procedures since 12.5 million procedures were reported for 2018 compared to only 7.8 million for 2012. Injectable neuromodulators and soft tissue fillers have topped the list with a 3.7 million procedure count. Body sculpting, chemical peeling, hair transplantation, and microneedling procedures were reported to be 1.57 million cases combined. Also, the top two procedures using laser were represented in wrinkle treatment as well as sun damage correction, while the lowest two trends for laser usage were for treatments of tattoos and birthmarks. Cryolipolysis was found to be at the head of body sculpting procedures with 287,435 cases, while tumescent liposuction was reported as the least performed body sculpting procedure (18,286 cases). In conclusion, comparing the procedural trends for the last 7 years has indicated that there has been a 78% increase in soft tissue filler treatment compared to 2012. In addition, it was further noted that laser procedures scored 74% increase in the last 7 years while body contouring procedures have had four folds increase in general compared to 2012.

Keywords: cosmetic dermatology, ASDS procedure survey, laser, body sculpting

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Authors: Aihong Zhao, Priya Sastry, Mark L Field, Mohamad Bashir, Arvind Singh, David Richens

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Objectives: Intramural haematoma (IMH) is one of the pathologies, along with acute aortic dissection, that present as Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS). Evidence suggests that unlike aortic dissection, some intramural haematomas may regress with medical management. However, intramural haematomas have been traditionally managed like acute aortic dissections. Given that some of these pathologies may regress with conservative management, it would be useful to be able to identify which of these may not need high risk emergency intervention. A computational aortic model was used in this study to try and identify intramural haematomas with risk of progression to aortic dissection. Methods: We created a computational model of the aorta with luminal blood flow. Reports in the literature have identified 11 mm as the radial clot thickness that is associated with heightened risk of progression of intramural haematoma. Accordingly, haematomas of varying sizes were implanted in the modeled aortic wall to test this hypothesis. The model was exposed to physiological blood flows and the stresses and strains in each layer of the aortic wall were recorded. Results: Size and shape of clot were seen to affect the magnitude of aortic stresses. The greatest stresses and strains were recorded in the intima of the model. When the haematoma exceeded 10 mm in all dimensions, the stress on the intima reached breaking point. Conclusion: Intramural clot size appears to be a contributory factor affecting aortic wall stress. Our computer simulation corroborates clinical evidence in the literature proposing that IMH diameter greater than 11 mm may be predictive of progression. This preliminary report suggests finite element modelling of the aortic wall may be a useful process by which to examine putative variables important in predicting progression or regression of intramural haematoma.

Keywords: intramural haematoma, acute aortic syndrome, finite element analysis,

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Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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Background and purpose: Non-alcoholic fatty liver is one of the most common liver disorders, which, as the most important cause of death from liver disease, has unpleasant consequences and complications. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of an educational intervention based on a health belief model to prevent non-alcoholic fatty liver among women. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was performed among 110 women referring to comprehensive health service centers in Malayer City, west of Iran, in 2023. Using the available sampling method, 110 Participants were divided into experimental and control groups. The data collection tool included demographic characteristics and a questionnaire based on the health belief model. In The experimental group, three one-hour training sessions were conducted in the form of pamphlets, lectures and group discussions. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21, by correlation tests, paired t-tests independent t-tests. Results: The mean age of participants was 38.07±6.28 years, and Most of the participants were middle-aged, married, housewives with academic education, middle-income and overweight. After the educational intervention, the mean scores of the constructs include perceived sensitivity (p=0.01), perceived severity (p=0.01), perceived benefits (p=0.01), guidance for internal (p=0.01) and external action (p=0.01), and perceived self-efficacy (p=0.01) in the experimental group were significantly higher than the control group. The score of perceived barriers in the experimental group decreased after training. The perceived obstacles score in the test group decreased after the training (15.2 ± 3.9 v.s 11.2 ± 3.3, (p<0.01). Conclusion: The findings of the study showed that the design and implementation of educational programs based on the constructs of the health belief model can be effective in preventing women from developing higher levels of non-alcoholic fatty liver.

Keywords: health, education, believe, behaviour

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Authors: G. Shabib, Esam H. Abd-Elhameed, G. Magdy

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In this paper, a comparison of discrete time PID, PSS controllers is presented through small signal stability of power system comprising of one machine connected to infinite bus system. This comparison achieved by using a new approach of discretization which converts the S-domain model of analog controllers to a Z-domain model to enhance the damping of a single machine power system. The new method utilizes the Plant Input Mapping (PIM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm is stable for any sampling rate, as well as it takes the closed loop characteristic into consideration. On the other hand, the traditional discretization methods such as Tustin’s method is produce satisfactory results only; when the sampling period is sufficiently low.

Keywords: PSS, power system stabilizer PID, proportional-integral-derivative PIM, plant input mapping

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Authors: Nada Souissi, Mourad Mroua

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The main purpose of this study is to examine the interaction between financial asset volatility, economic factors and investor's behavioral indicators related to both the company's and the markets stocks for the period from January 2000 to January2020. Using multiple linear regression and Bayesian Networks modeling, results show a positive and negative relationship between investor's psychology index, economic factors and predicted stock market return. We reveal that the application of the Bayesian Discrete Network contributes to identify the different cause and effect relationships between all economic, financial variables and psychology index.

Keywords: Financial asset return predictability, Economic factors, Investor's psychology index, Bayesian approach, Probabilistic networks, Parametric learning

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Authors: Yang Shen, Yongpan Cheng, Jinliang Xu

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The effective blade cooling is of great significance for improving the performance of turbine. The mist cooling emerges as the promising way compared with the transitional single-phase cooling. In the mist cooling, the injected droplet will evaporate rapidly, and cool down the blade surface due to the absorbed latent heat, hence the lifetime for evaporating droplet becomes critical for design of cooling passages for the blade. So far there have been extensive studies on the droplet evaporation, but usually the isothermal model is applied for most of the studies. Actually the surface cooling effect can affect the droplet evaporation greatly, it can prolong the droplet evaporation lifetime significantly. In our study, a new theoretical model for sessile droplet evaporation with surface cooling effect is built up in toroidal coordinate. Three evaporation modes are analyzed during the evaporation lifetime, include “Constant Contact Radius”(CCR) mode、“Constant Contact Angle”(CCA) mode and “stick-slip”(SS) mode. The dimensionless number E0 is introduced to indicate the strength of the evaporative cooling, it is defined based on the thermal properties of the liquid and the atmosphere. Our model can predict accurately the lifetime of evaporation by validating with available experimental data. Then the temporal variation of droplet volume, contact angle and contact radius are presented under CCR, CCA and SS mode, the following conclusions are obtained. 1) The larger the dimensionless number E0, the longer the lifetime of three evaporation cases is; 2) The droplet volume over time still follows “2/3 power law” in the CCA mode, as in the isothermal model without the cooling effect; 3) In the “SS” mode, the large transition contact angle can reduce the evaporation time in CCR mode, and increase the time in CCA mode, the overall lifetime will be increased; 4) The correction factor for predicting instantaneous volume of the droplet is derived to predict the droplet life time accurately. These findings may be of great significance to explore the dynamics and heat transfer of sessile droplet evaporation.

Keywords: blade cooling, droplet evaporation, lifetime, theoretical analysis

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Authors: Hasan Serdar Öge, Esra Çiftçi, Kazım Karaboğa

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The main purpose of the research is to address the role of psychological harassment behaviors (mobbing) to which employees are exposed and personality characteristics over work alienation. Research population was composed of the employees of Provincial Special Administration. A survey with four sections was created to measure variables and reach out the basic goals of the research. Correlation and step-wise regression analyses were performed to investigate the separate and overall effects of sub-dimensions of psychological harassment behaviors and personality characteristic on work alienation of employees. Correlation analysis revealed significant but weak relationships between work alienation and psychological harassment and personality characteristics. Step-wise regression analysis revealed also significant relationships between work alienation variable and assault to personality, direct negative behaviors (sub dimensions of mobbing) and openness (sub-dimension of personality characteristics). Each variable was introduced into the model step by step to investigate the effects of significant variables in explaining the variations in work alienation. While the explanation ratio of the first model was 13%, the last model including three variables had an explanation ratio of 24%.

Keywords: alienation, five-factor personality characteristics, mobbing, psychological harassment, work alienation

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Authors: Laurent Maurin, Mervi Toivanen

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This paper estimates euro area banks’ internal target capital ratios and investigates whether banks’ adjustment to the targets have an impact on credit supply and holding of securities during the financial crisis in 2005-2011. Using data on listed banks and country-specific macro-variables a partial adjustment model is estimated in a panel context. The results indicate, firstly, that an increase in the riskiness of banks’ balance sheets influences positively on the target capital ratios. Secondly, the adjustment towards higher equilibrium capital ratios has a significant impact on banks’ assets. The impact is found to be more size-able on security holdings than on loans, thereby suggesting a pecking order.

Keywords: Euro area, capital ratios, credit supply, partial adjustment model

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Authors: Alireza Mohadesi, Ashraf Salmanipour

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A chemically modified glassy carbon electrode for electrocatalytic determination of sulfide was developed using multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) covalently immobilized with 2,6-dichlorophenolindophenol (DPIP). The immobilization of 2,6-dichlorophenolindophenol with MWCNTs was performed with a new synthetic strategy and characterized by UV–visible absorption spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry. The cyclic voltammetric response of DPIP grafted onto MWCNTs indicated that it promotes the low potential, sensitive and stable determination of sulfide. The dependence of response currents on the concentration of sulfide was examined and was linear in the range of 10 - 1100 µM. The detection limit of sulfide was 5 µM and RSD for 100 and 500 µM sulfides were 1.8 and 1.3 %. Many interfering species had little or no effect on the determination of sulfide. The procedure was applied to determination of sulfide in waters samples.

Keywords: functionalized carbon nanotubes, sulfide, biological samples, 2, 6-dichlorophenolindophenol

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Authors: Marinka Baghdasaryan, Tigran Mnoyan

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The pertinence of modeling the moment of resistance generated by the ore-grinding mill is substantiated. Based on the ranking of technological indices obtained in the result of the survey among the specialists of several beneficiating plants, the factors determining the level of the moment of resistance generated by the mill are revealed. A priori diagram of the ranks is obtained in which the factors are arranged in the descending order of the impact degree on the level of the moment. The obtained model of the moment of resistance shows the technological character of the operation modes of the ore-grinding mill and can be used for improving the operation modes of the system motor-mill and preventing the abnormal mode of the drive synchronous motor.

Keywords: model, abnormal mode, mill, correlation, moment of resistance, rotational speed

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Authors: Sarah K. Amer, Nagwa Badr, Osman Ibrahim, Ahmed Hamad

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This paper surveys the effectiveness of software process quality assurance frameworks, with some focus on Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) - a framework that has become widely adopted in software organizations. The importance of quality improvement in software development, and the differences in the outcomes of quality framework implementation between Middle Eastern and North African (MENA-region) countries and non-MENA-region countries are discussed. The greatest challenges met in the MENA region are identified, with particular focus on Egypt and its rising software development industry.

Keywords: software quality, software process improvement, software development methodologies, capability maturity model integration

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Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

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This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

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Authors: Zhen Qin, Yufei Peng, Jianbei Li, Jidong Long

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In order to study the activity of the coated aluminate barium-tungsten cathodes during activation, aging, poisoning and long-term use. Through a set of hot-cathode micro-area emission uniformity study device, we tested the micro-area emission performance of the cathode under different conditions. The change of activity of cathode micro-area was obtained. The influence of micro-area activity on the performance of the cathode was explained by the ageing model of barium-tungsten cathode. This helps to improve the design and process of the cathode and can point the way in finding the factors that affect life in the cathode operation.

Keywords: barium-tungsten cathode, ageing model, micro-area emission, emission uniformity

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

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The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

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Authors: Houssam A. Toutanji, Meng Han

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This study focuses on the development of a fracture mechanics based-model that predicts the debonding behavior of FRP strengthened RC beams. In this study, a database includes 351 concrete prisms bonded with FRP plates tested in single and double shear were prepared. The existing fracture-mechanics-based models are applied to this database. Unfortunately the properties of adhesive layer, especially a soft adhesive layer, used on the specimens in the existing studies were not always able to found. Thus, the new model’s proposal was based on fifteen newly conducted pullout tests and twenty four data selected from two independent existing studies with the application of a soft adhesive layers and the availability of adhesive properties.

Keywords: carbon fiber composite materials, interface response, fracture characteristics, maximum shear stress, ultimate transferable load

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Authors: Lucie Côté, Martin Lauzier, Guy Beauchamp, France Guertin

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Stress causes deleterious effects to the physical, psychological and organizational levels, which highlight the need to use effective coping strategies to deal with it. Several coping models exist, but they don’t integrate the different strategies in a coherent way nor do they take into account the new research on the emotional coping and acceptance of the stressful situation. To fill these gaps, an integrative model incorporating the main coping strategies was developed. This model arises from the review of the scientific literature on coping and from a qualitative study carried out among workers with low or high levels of stress, as well as from an analysis of clinical cases. The model allows one to understand under what circumstances the strategies are effective or ineffective and to learn how one might use them more wisely. It includes Specific Strategies in controllable situations (the Modification of the Situation and the Resignation-Disempowerment), Specific Strategies in non-controllable situations (Acceptance and Stubborn Relentlessness) as well as so-called General Strategies (Wellbeing and Avoidance). This study is intended to undertake and present the process of development and validation of an instrument to measure coping strategies based on this model. An initial pool of items has been generated from the conceptual definitions and three expert judges have validated the content. Of these, 18 items have been selected for a short form questionnaire. A sample of 300 students and employees from a Quebec university was used for the validation of the questionnaire. Concerning the reliability of the instrument, the indices observed following the inter-rater agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha) and the calculation of the coefficients for internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) are satisfactory. To evaluate the construct validity, a confirmatory factor analysis using MPlus supports the existence of a model with six factors. The results of this analysis suggest also that this configuration is superior to other alternative models. The correlations show that the factors are only loosely related to each other. Overall, the analyses carried out suggest that the instrument has good psychometric qualities and demonstrates the relevance of further work to establish predictive validity and reconfirm its structure. This instrument will help researchers and clinicians better understand and assess coping strategies to cope with stress and thus prevent mental health issues.

Keywords: acceptance, coping strategies, stress, validation process

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Authors: Renata Konadu

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In Ghana, electricity has become the main form of energy which all sectors of the economy rely on for their businesses. Therefore, as the economy grows, the demand and consumption of electricity also grow alongside due to the heavy dependence on it. However, since the supply of electricity has not increased to match the demand, there has been frequent power outages and load shedding affecting business performances. To solve this problem and advance policies to secure electricity in Ghana, it is imperative that those factors that cause consumption to increase be analysed by considering the three classes of consumers; residential, industrial and non-residential. The main argument, however, is that, export of electricity to other neighbouring countries should be included in the electricity consumption model and considered as one of the significant factors which can decrease or increase consumption. The author made use of multivariate time series data from 1980-2010 and econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model. Findings show that GDP growth, urban population growth, electricity exports and industry value added to GDP were cointegrated. The results also showed that there is unidirectional causality from electricity export and GDP growth and Industry value added to GDP to electricity consumption in the long run. However, in the short run, there was found to be a directional causality among all the variables and electricity consumption. The results have useful implication for energy policy makers especially with regards to electricity consumption, demand, and supply.

Keywords: electricity consumption, energy policy, GDP growth, vector error correction model

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Authors: Kin On Kwok, Vivian Wei, Benjamin Cowling, Steven Riley, Jonathan Read

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Background: The role of social contact behavior measured in different contact constructs in the transmission of respiratory pathogens with acute respiratory illness (ARI) remains unclear. We, therefore, aim to depict the individual pattern of ARI in the community and investigate the association between different contact dimensions and ARI in Hong Kong. Methods: Between June 2013 and September 2013, 620 subjects participated in the last two waves of recruitment of the population based longitudinal phone social contact survey. Some of the subjects in this study are from the same household. They are also provided with the symptom diaries to self-report any acute respiratory illness related symptoms between the two days of phone recruitment. Data from 491 individuals who were not infected on the day of phone recruitment and returned the symptom diaries after the last phone recruitment were used for analysis. Results: After adjusting different follow-up periods among individuals, the overall incidence rate of ARI was 1.77 per 100 person-weeks. Over 75% ARI episodes involve running nose, cough, sore throat, which are followed by headache (55%), malagia (35%) and fever (18%). Using a generalized estimating equation framework accounting for the cluster effect of subjects living in the same household, we showed that both daily number of locations visited with contacts and the number of contacts, explained the ARI incidence rate better than only one single contact construct. Conclusion: Our result suggests that it is the intertwining property of contact quantity (number of contacts) and contact intensity (ratio of subject-to-contact) that governs the infection risk by a collective set of respiratory pathogens. Our results provide empirical evidence that multiple contact constructs should be incorporated in the mathematical transmission models to feature a more realistic dynamics of respiratory disease.

Keywords: acute respiratory illness, longitudinal study, social contact, symptom diaries

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 367