Search results for: linear regression estimation

Authors: Yogita Tulsian, A. Yadav

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Background: India reports 3,600 cholera cases annually. In August 2013, a cholera outbreak was reported in Jalgaon district, Maharashtra state. We sought to describe the epidemiological characteristics,identify risk factors, and recommend control measures. Methods: We collected existing stool and water testing laboratory results, and conducted a1: 1 matched case-control study. A cholera case was defined as a resident of Vishnapur or Malapur villagewith onset of acute watery diarrhea on/ after 1-July-2013. Controls were matched by age, gender and village and had not experienced any diarrhea for 3 months. We collected socio-demographic characteristics, clinical presentation, and food/travel/water exposure history and conducted conditional logistic regression. Results: Of 50 people who met the cholera case definition, 40 (80%) were from Vishnapur village and 30 (60%) were female. The median age was 8.5 years (range; 0.3-75). Twenty (45%) cases were hospitalized, twelve (60%) with severe dehydration. Three of five stool samples revealed Vibrio cholerae 01 El Tor, Ogawa and samples from 7 of 14 Vishnapur water sources contained fecal coliforms. Cases from Vishnapur were significantly more likely to drink from identified contaminated water sources (matched odds ratio (MOR) 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1-13), or from a river/canal (MOR=18.4;95%CI: 2-504). Cases from Malapur were more likely to drink from a river/canal (MOR=6.2; 95%CI: 0.6-196). Cases from both villages were significantly more likely to visit the forest (MOR 6.3; 95%CI: 2-30) or another village (MOR 3.5; 95%CI; 0.9-17). Conclusions: This outbreak was caused by Vibrio cholerae, likely through contamination of water in Vishnapur village and/or through drinking river/canal water. We recommended safe drinking water for forest visitors and all residents of these villages and use of regular water testing.

Keywords: cholera, case control study, contaminated water, river

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Authors: Amani Waheed, Adel Mishriky, Rasha Farouk, Essam Abdallah, Sarah Hussein

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Background: Occupational stress plays a crucial role in professional drivers' health. They are exposed to high workloads, low physical activity, high demand and low decisions as well as poor lifestyle factors including poor diet, sedentary work, and smoking. Dyslipidemia is a well-established modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. Occupational stress and other forms of chronic stress have been associated with raised levels of atherogenic lipids. Although stress management has some evidence in improving lipid profile, the association between occupational stress and dyslipidemia is not clear. Objectives: To assess the relational between occupational stress and lipid profile among professional drivers. Methodology: A cross-sectional study conducted at a large company in Ismailia City, Egypt, where, 131 professional drivers divided into 44 car drivers, 43 bus drivers, and 44 truck drivers were eligible after applying exclusion criteria. Occupational stress index (OSI), non-occupational risk factors of dyslipidemia were assessed using interview structured questionnaire. Blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile were measured. Results: The mean of total OSI score was 79.98 ± 6.14. The total OSI score is highest among truck drivers (82.16 ± 4.62), then bus drivers (80.26 ± 6.02) and lowest among car drivers (77.55 ± 6.79) with statistically significant. Eighty percent had Dyslipidemia. The duration of driving hours per day, exposure to passive smoking and increased BMI were the risk factors. No statistical significance between Total OSI score and dyslipidemia. Using, logistic regression analysis, occupational stress, duration of driving hours per day, and BMI were positive significant predictors for dyslipidemia. Conclusion: Professional drivers are exposed to occupational stress. A high proportion of drivers have dyslipidemia. Total OSI score doesn't have statistically significant relation with dyslipidemia.

Keywords: body mass index, dyslipidaemia, occupational stress, professional drivers

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Authors: I. D. Laryushin, V. A. Kostin, A. A. Silaev, N. V. Vvedenskii

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Generation of broadband intense terahertz (THz) radiation attracts reasonable interest due to various applications, such as the THz time-domain spectroscopy, the probing and control of various ultrafast processes, the THz imaging with subwavelength resolution, and many others. One of the most promising methods for generating powerful and broadband terahertz pulses is based on focusing two-color femtosecond ionizing laser pulses in gases, including ambient air. For this method, the amplitudes of terahertz pulses are determined by the free-electron current density remaining in a formed plasma after the passage of the laser pulse. The excitation of this residual current density can be treated as multi-wave mixing: Аn effective generation of terahertz radiation is possible only when the frequency ratio of one-color components in the two-color pulse is close to irreducible rational fraction a/b with small odd sum a + b. This work focuses on the optimal parameters (polarizations and intensities) of laser components for the strongest THz generation. The optimal values of parameters are found numerically and analytically with the use of semiclassical approach for calculating the residual current density. For frequency ratios close to a/(a ± 1) with natural a, the strongest THz generation is shown to take place when the both laser components have circular polarizations and equal intensities. For this optimal case, an analytical formula for the residual current density was derived. For the frequency ratios such as 2/5, the two-color ionizing pulses with circularly polarized components practically do not excite the residual current density. However, the optimal parameters correspond generally to specific elliptical (not linear) polarizations of the components and intensity ratios close to unity.

Keywords: broadband terahertz radiation, ionization, laser plasma, ultrashort two-color pulses

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Authors: N. M. Sani, E. D. Jatau, O. S. Olonitola, M. Y. Gwarzo, P. Moodley, N. S. Mujahid

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Haemoglobin (HB) indicates anaemia level and by extension may reflect the nutritional level and perhaps the immunity of an individual. Some antiretroviral drugs like zidovudine are known to cause anaemia in People living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). A cross-sectional study using demographic data and blood specimen from 218 female commercial sex workers attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics was conducted between December 2009 and July 2011 to assess the effect of zidovudine on haematologic and RNA viral load of female sex workers receiving antiretroviral treatment in north-western Nigeria. Anaemia is a common and serious complication of both HIV infection and its treatment. In the setting of HIV infection, anaemia has been associated with decreased quality of life, functional status, and survival. Antiretroviral therapy, particularly the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), has been associated with a decrease in the incidence and severity of anaemia in HIV-infected patients who have received a HAART regimen for at least 1 year. In this study, result has shown that out of 218 patients, 26 with haemoglobin count between 5.1–10 g/dl were observed to have the highest viral load count of 300,000–350,000 copies/ml. It was also observed that most patients (190) with HB of 10.1–15.0 g/dl had viral load count of 200,000–250,000 copies/ml. An inverse relationship therefore exists, i.e. the lower the haemoglobin level, the higher the viral load count, even though the test statistics did not show any significance between the two (P=0.206). This shows that multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that anaemia was associated with a CD4+ cell count below 50/µL in female sex workers with a viral load above 100,000 copies/mL who use zidovudine. Severe anaemia was less prevalent in this study population than in historical comparators; however, mild to moderate anaemia rates remain high. The study, therefore, recommends that hematological and virologic parameters be monitored closely in patients receiving first line ART regimen.

Keywords: anaemia, female sex worker, haemoglobin, Zidovudine

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Authors: Feras Darwish Elhajji, Alberto Berardi, Manal Ayyash, Iman Basheti

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The concept of the use of probiotics for humans now has been known for decades however, their intake by the Jordanian population seems to be less common when compared to population in the developed countries. Community pharmacy is the main supplier of probiotics, however, after conducting an extensive literature review, not any published research article could be found talking about the role, knowledge, and practice of the pharmacists in the area of probiotics. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the level of knowledge about probiotics and their dispensing practice in community pharmacies in Jordan. Community pharmacy staff (pharmacists and technicians) in Amman and north of Jordan were randomly selected to complete an anonymous questionnaire that had been pre-tested and validated. Ethical approval was obtained from the university ethics committee. The questionnaire included the following sections: demographics, knowledge and perceptions about probiotics, and role of the pharmacist Pharmacists and technicians were visited and interviewed in 281 community pharmacies. Asking about probiotics, 90.4% of them said that they know what probiotics are, although only 29.5% agreed that pharmacy staff in Jordan have good knowledge about probiotics, and 88.3% agreed that pharmacy staff in Jordan need more training and knowledge about probiotics. Variables that were significantly related to knowledge about probiotics were being a pharmacist (ρ= 0.012), area of the community pharmacy (ρ= 0.019), and female staff (ρ= 0.031) after conducting logistic regression statistical analysis. More than two-thirds of the participants thought that probiotics are classified as dietary supplements by Jordan Food and Drug Administration (JFDA). Of those who knew probiotics, the majority of them – 76.8% and 91.7% – agreed that probiotics are effective and safe, respectively. Believing in efficacy of the probiotics was significantly associated with answering their use to be with or after antibiotic administration and to increase normal flora gut population (ρ= 0.007). Efficacy was also significantly associated with recommending probiotics to consumers by the pharmacist (ρ< 0.001) and by the doctor (ρ= 0.041). At the same time, the concept of safety was mainly associated with their use for flatulence and gases (ρ= 0.048). Level of knowledge about probiotics and their uses, efficacy and safety amongst community pharmacy staff in Jordan is found to be good. However, this level can be raised in the future, especially knowledge about uses of probiotics.

Keywords: community pharmacy, Jordan, prebiotics, probiotics

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Authors: Jiwon Park, Jihae Hur, Kukjae Kim, Hansoo Kim

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In this study, outriggers, which are horizontal structures connecting a building core to distant columns to increase the lateral stiffness of a tall building, are used to reduce differential axial shortening in a tall building. Therefore, the outriggers in tall buildings are used to serve the dual purposes of reducing the lateral displacement and reducing the differential axial shortening. Since the location of the outrigger greatly affects the effectiveness of the outrigger in terms of the lateral displacement at the top of the tall building and the maximum differential axial shortening, the optimum locations of the dual-purpose outriggers can be determined by an optimization method. Because the floors where the outriggers are installed are given as integer numbers, the conventional gradient-based optimization methods cannot be directly used. In this study, a piecewise quadratic interpolation method is used to resolve the integrality requirement posed by the optimum locations of the dual-purpose outriggers. The optimal solutions for the dual-purpose outriggers are searched by linear scalarization which is a popular method for multi-objective optimization problems. It was found that increasing the number of outriggers reduced the maximum lateral displacement and the maximum differential axial shortening. It was also noted that the optimum locations for reducing the lateral displacement and reducing the differential axial shortening were different. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (NRF-2017R1A2B4010043) and financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) as U-City Master and Doctor Course Grant Program.

Keywords: concrete structure, optimization, outrigger, tall building

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Authors: Bo-Jian Wu, Si-Heng Wu

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Objectives: Frailty is a condition of a person who has chronic health problems complicated by a loss of physiological reserve and deteriorating functional abilities. The frailty syndrome was defined by Fried and colleagues, i.e., weight loss, fatigue, decreased grip strength, slow gait speed, and low physical activity. However, to our best knowledge, there have been rare studies exploring the prevalence of frailty and its association with falls in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: A total of 559 hospitalized patients were recruited from a public psychiatric hospital in 2013. The majority of the subjects were males (361, 64.6%). The average age was 53.5 years. All patients received the assessment of frailty status defined by Fried and colleagues. The status of a fall within one year after the assessment of frailty, clinical and demographic data was collected from medical records. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio of associated factors. Results : A total of 9.2% of the participants met the criteria of frailty. The percentage of patients having a fall was 7.2%. Age were significantly associated with frailty (odds ratio = 1.057, 95% confidence interval = 1.025-1.091); however, sex was not associated with frailty (p = 0.17). After adjustment for age and sex, frailty status was associated with a fall (odds ratio = 3.62, 95% confidence interval = 1.58-8.28). Concerning the components of frailty, decreased grip strength (odds ratio = 2.44, 95% confidence interval = 1.16-5.14), slow gait speed (odds ratio = 2.82, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-6.53), and low physical activity (odds ratio = 2.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-5.78) were found to be associated with a fall. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the prevalence of frailty was about 10% in hospitalized patients with chronic patients with schizophrenia, and frailty status was significant with a fall in this group. By using the status of frailty, it may be beneficial to potential target candidates having fallen in the future as early as possible. The effective intervention of prevention of further falls may be given in advance. Our results bridge this gap and open a potential avenue for the prevention of falls in patients with schizophrenia. Frailty is certainly an important factor for maintaining wellbeing among these patients.

Keywords: fall, frailty, schizophrenia, Taiwan

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Authors: Ayodeji Adebayo, Tolulope Soyannwo, Oluwakemi A. Sigbeku

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Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem with adverse health consequences. There is increasing evidence of association of IPV with mental health problems. Understanding the association between IPV and mental health status of women of reproductive aged group in the rural communities in Nigeria can provide information to improve maternal health status. Therefore, this study was conducted to examine the relationship between experience of IPV and mental health status of women of reproductive aged group in a rural community in Southwest Nigeria. A community based cross-sectional survey was conducted using a cluster sampling technique to select 283 non-pregnant women of reproductive age group (15-49 years Mental health was assessed based on respondents’ experience of any symptoms of depression, anxiety and/or low self-esteem. IPV was assessed over a period of 12 months and the forms of IPV assessed were emotional, physical and sexual. An interviewer administered questionnaire was used to collect information on experience of IPV, reproductive history and factors influencing mental health. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression at 5% level of significance. The mean age of respondents was 26.1± 7.8 with 57.1% aged 15-24years. More than half (58.0%) were married. Overall, 60.7% of respondents had mental health problems while 84.8% experienced all categories of violence. The pattern of IPV includes physical violence (10.7%), emotional violence (82.7%) and sexual violence (20.8%). Women who experienced sexual violence by a partner are most likely to suffer from all mental issues. Also, gynaecological morbidities are associated with increasing risk of mental health problems. The research demonstrates an urgent need for mental health policies to recognize the relationship between intimate partner violence, gynaecological morbidities and mental health problems in women in Nigeria.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, mental health, reproductive age group, women

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Authors: Bummo Ahn

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Palpation is widely used to measure soft tissue firmness or stiffness in the living condition in order to apply detection, diagnosis, and treatment of tumors, scar tissue, abnormal muscle tone, or muscle spasticity. Since these methods are subjective and depend on the proficiency level, it is concluded that there are other diagnoses depending on the condition of the experts and the results are not objective. The mechanical property obtained by using the elasticity of the tissue is important to calculate a predictive variable for monitoring abnormal tissues. If the mechanical load such as reaction force on the foot increases in the same region under the same conditions, the mechanical property of the tissue is changed. Therefore, objective diagnosis is possible not only for experts but also for patients using this quantitative information. Furthermore, the portable system also allows non-experts to easily diagnose at home, not in hospitals or institutions. In this paper, we introduce a portable palpation system that can be used to measure the mechanical properties of human tissue, which can be applied to monitor diabetic foot ulceration patients with measuring the mechanical property change of foot tissue. The system was designed to be smaller and portable in comparison with the conventional palpation systems. It is consists of the probe, the force sensor, linear actuator, micro control unit, the display module, battery, and housing. Using this system, we performed validation experiments by applying different palpations (3 and 5 mm) to soft tissue (silicone rubber) and measured reaction forces. In addition, we estimated the elastic moduli of the soft tissue against different palpations and compare the estimated elastic moduli that show similar value even if the palpation depths are different.

Keywords: palpation probe, portable, diabetic foot ulceration, monitoring, mechanical property

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Authors: Lucero Luciano, Cesar Celis, Jose Ramos

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Polygeneration improves energy efficiency and reduce both energy consumption and pollutant emissions compared to conventional generation technologies. A polygeneration system is a variation of a cogeneration one, in which more than two outputs, i.e., heat, power, cooling, water, energy or fuels, are accounted for. In particular, polygeneration systems integrating solar energy and water desalination represent promising technologies for energy production and water supply. They are therefore interesting options for coastal regions with a high solar potential, such as those located in southern Peru and northern Chile. Notice that most of the Peruvian and Chilean mining industry operations intensive in electricity and water consumption are located in these particular regions. Accordingly, this work focus on the design and integration of a polygeneration system producing industrial heating, cooling, electrical power and water for an industrial plant. The design procedure followed in this work involves integer linear programming modeling (MILP), operational planning and dynamic operating conditions. The technical and economic feasibility of integrating renewable energy technologies (photovoltaic and solar thermal, PV+CPS), thermal energy store, power and thermal exchange, absorption chillers, cogeneration heat engines and desalination technologies is particularly assessed. The polygeneration system integration carried out seek to minimize the system total annual cost subject to CO2 emissions restrictions. Particular economic aspects accounted for include investment, maintenance and operating costs.

Keywords: desalination, design and integration, polygeneration systems, renewable energy

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Authors: Juan C. Gutierrez-Estrada, Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo, Ignacio De La Rosa, Antonio Peregrin, Fernando Gomez-Bravo, Samuel Lopez-Dominguez, Alejandro Garrocho-Cruz, Jairo Castro-Gutierrez

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The semi-intensive aquaculture in traditional earth ponds is the main rearing system in Southern Spain. These fish rearing systems are approximately two thirds of aquatic production in this area which has made a significant contribution to the regional economy in recent years. In this type of rearing system, a crucial aspect is the correct quantification and control of the fish abundance in the ponds because the fish farmer knows how many fishes he puts in the ponds but doesn’t know how many fishes will harvest at the end of the rear period. This is a consequence of the mortality induced by different causes as pathogen agents as parasites, viruses and bacteria and other factors as predation of fish-eating birds and poaching. Track the fish abundance in these installations is very difficult because usually the ponds take up a large area of land and the management of the water flow is not automatized. Therefore, there is a very high degree of uncertainty on the abundance fishes which strongly hinders the management and planning of the sales. A novel and non-invasive procedure to count fishes in the ponds is by the means of imaging sonars, particularly fixed systems and/or linked to aquatic vehicles as Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs). In this work, a method based on census stations procedures is proposed to evaluate the fish abundance estimation accuracy using images obtained of multibeam sonars. The results indicate that it is possible to obtain a realistic approach about the number of fishes, sizes and therefore the biomass contained in the ponds. This research is included in the framework of the KTTSeaDrones Project (‘Conocimiento y transferencia de tecnología sobre vehículos aéreos y acuáticos para el desarrollo transfronterizo de ciencias marinas y pesqueras 0622-KTTSEADRONES-5-E’) financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Interreg V-A Spain-Portugal Programme (POCTEP) 2014-2020.

Keywords: census station procedure, fish biomass, semi-intensive aquaculture, multibeam sonars

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Authors: Faith Samkange, Juliet Chipumuro, Henry Wanyama

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Business development and entrepreneurship constitute a major part of economic and human development for many countries within the Southern Africa Development Communities (SADC). While a marked increase in entrepreneurship activity has been registered, more than 70% of these business enterprises are still failing particularly in their conceptual years. One of the major reasons for this failure is that project process trends have tended to be fragmented and linear in approach while focusing primarily on isolated articulation of development aspects such as marketing, operations, accounting and human resources management with limited integration. Given the complexity of environmental, economic and human development issues in the SADC region, a multi-disciplinary, transformative, systematic and coordinated approach towards entrepreneurship development may be a more useful approach. This paper develops a proposed conceptual framework for an innovative and sustainable food production and food consumption Agritech entrepreneurship project in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa based on a systematic review of existing literature. A thematic analysis of the literature reviewed is applied to develop this theoretical contribution to knowledge. The conceptual framework will be tested in a research driven intervention project designed to improve the quality of life for marginalized indigenous African communities by addressing poverty alleviation, unemployment and gender inequality as stipulated in the global sustainable development goals by the United Nations in 2018.

Keywords: innovative entrepreneurship, sustainability, food production and consumption, marginalised communities, poverty alleviation

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Authors: Rosalina Penaloza, Joanna Navarro, Pauline Jolly, Anna Junkins, Carlos Seas, Larissa Otero

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) case detection in Peru relies on passive case finding. This strategy relies on the assumption that the community is aware that a persistent cough is a possible symptom of TB and that formal health care needs to be sought. Despite its importance, health knowledge specific to TB is underexplored in Peru. This study aimed to assess health literacy and level of TB knowledge among outpatients attending a referral hospital in Lima, Peru. The goal was to ascertain knowledge gaps in key areas relating to TB, to identify and prioritize subgroups for intervention, and to provide insight for policy and community interventions considering health literacy. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted using a survey to measure sociodemographic factors, tuberculosis knowledge, and health literacy. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to study the associations between variables and to account for potential confounders. The study was conducted at Hospital Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru from June – August 2017. Results: 272 participants were included in the analysis. 57.7% knew someone who had had TB before, 9% had had TB in the past. Two weeks a cough was correctly identified as a symptom that could be TB by 69.1%. High TB knowledge was found among 149 (54.8%) participants. High health literacy was found among 193 (71.0%) participants. Health literacy and TB knowledge were not significantly associated (OR 0.9 (95%CI 0.5-1.5)). After controlling for sex, age, district, education, health insurance, frequency of hospital visits and previous TB diagnosis: High TB knowledge was associated with knowing someone with TB (aOR 2.7 (95%CI 1.6-4.7)) and being a public transport driver, (aOR 0.2 (95%CI 0.05-0.9)). Not being poor was the single factor associated with high health literacy (aOR 3.8 (95%CI 1.6-8.9)). Conclusions: TB knowledge was fair, though 30% did not know the most important symptom of TB. Tailoring educational strategies to risk groups may enhance passive case detection especially amongst transport workers in Lima, Peru.

Keywords: health literacy, Peru, tuberculosis, tuberculosis knowledge

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Authors: Hyelim Park, Juan Martin Zorrilla

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Climate change influences very widely and in various ways ocean ecosystem functioning. The consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems are an increase in temperature and irregular behavior of some solute concentrations. These changes would affect fisheries catches in several ways. Our aim is to assess the quantitative contribution change of fishery catches along the time and express them through four environment variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST4) and the concentrations of Chlorophyll (CHL), Particulate Inorganic Carbon (PIC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) at two spatial scales: Global and the nineteen FAO Major Fishing Areas divisions. Data collection was based on the FAO FishStatJ 2014 database as well as MODIS Aqua satellite observations from 2002 to 2012. Some data had to be corrected and interpolated using some existing methods. As the results, a multivariable regression model for average Global fisheries captures contained temporal mean of SST4, standard deviation of SST4, standard deviation of CHL and standard deviation of PIC. Global vector auto-regressive (VAR) model showed that SST4 was a statistical cause of global fishery capture. To accommodate varying conditions in fishery condition and influence of climate change variables, a model was constructed for each FAO major fishing area. From the management perspective it should be recognized some limitations of the FAO marine areas division that opens to possibility to the discussion of the subdivision of the areas into smaller units. Furthermore, it should be treated that the contribution changes of fishery species and the possible environment factor for specific species at various scale levels.

Keywords: fisheries-catch, FAO FishStatJ, MODIS Aqua, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), VAR, granger causality

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Authors: Bernd Engel, Sara Salman Hassan Al-Maeeni

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A substantial amount of natural resources are nowadays consumed at a growing rate, as humans all over the world used materials obtained from the Earth. Machinery manufacturing industry is one of the major resource consumers on a global scale. Even though the incessant finding out of the new material, metals, and resources, it is urgent for the industry to develop methods to use the Earth's resources intelligently and more sustainable than before. Re-engineering of machine tools regarding design and failure analysis is an approach whereby out-of-date machines are upgraded and returned to useful life. To ensure the reliable future performance of the used machine components, it is essential to investigate the machine component failure through the material, design, and surface examinations. This paper presents an experimental approach aimed at inspecting the shaft of the rotary draw bending machine as a case to study. The testing methodology, which is based on the principle of the three-point bending test, allows assessing the shaft elastic behavior under loading. Furthermore, the shaft elastic characteristics include the maximum linear deflection, and maximum bending stress was determined by using an analytical approach and finite element (FE) analysis approach. In the end, the results were compared with the ones obtained by the experimental approach. In conclusion, it is seen that the measured bending deflection and bending stress were well close to the permissible design value. Therefore, the shaft can work in the second life cycle. However, based on previous surface tests conducted, the shaft needs surface treatments include re-carburizing and refining processes to ensure the reliable surface performance.

Keywords: deflection, FE analysis, shaft, stress, three-point bending

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Authors: Chakkrit Poonpakdee, Jing-Hua Tzen, Ya-Zhen Huang, Yao-Tung Lin

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Potassium (K) is a known macro nutrient and essential element for plant growth. Single leaching and modified sequential extraction schemes have been developed to estimate the relative phase associations of soil samples. The sequential extraction process is a step in analyzing the partitioning of metals affected by environmental conditions, but it is not a tool for estimation of K bioavailability. While, traditional single leaching method has been used to classify K speciation for a long time, it depend on its availability to the plants and use for potash fertilizer recommendation rate. Clay mineral in soil is a factor for controlling soil fertility. The change of the micro-structure of clay minerals during various environment (i.e. swelling or shrinking) is characterized using Transmission X-Ray Microscopy (TXM). The objective of this study are to 1) compare the distribution of K speciation between single leaching and sequential extraction process 2) determined clay particle flocculation structure before/after suspension with K+ using TXM. Four tropical soil samples: farming without K fertilizer (10 years), long term applied K fertilizer (10 years; 168-240 kg K2O ha-1 year-1), red soil (450-500 kg K2O ha-1 year-1) and forest soil were selected. The results showed that the amount of K speciation by single leaching method were high in mineral K, HNO3 K, Non-exchangeable K, NH4OAc K, exchangeable K and water soluble K respectively. Sequential extraction process indicated that most K speciations in soil were associated with residual, organic matter, Fe or Mn oxide and exchangeable fractions and K associate fraction with carbonate was not detected in tropical soil samples. In farming long term applied K fertilizer and red soil were higher exchangeable K than farming long term without K fertilizer and forest soil. The results indicated that one way to increase the available K (water soluble K and exchangeable K) should apply K fertilizer and organic fertilizer for providing available K. The two-dimension of TXM image of clay particles suspension with K+ shows that the aggregation structure of clay mineral closed-void cellular networks. The porous cellular structure of soil aggregates in 1 M KCl solution had large and very larger empty voids than in 0.025 M KCl and deionized water respectively. TXM nanotomography is a new technique can be useful in the field as a tool for better understanding of clay mineral micro-structure.

Keywords: potassium, sequential extraction process, clay mineral, TXM

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Authors: Goodness Onwuka, Khaled Abou-El-Hossein

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The increase in the demand for precision optics, coupled with the absence of much research output in the ultra high precision grinding of precision optics as compared to the ultrahigh precision diamond turning of optical metals has fostered the need for more research in the ultra high precision grinding of an optical lens. Furthermore, the increase in the stringent demands for nanometric surface finishes through lapping, polishing and grinding processes necessary for the use of borosilicate-crown glass in the automotive and optics industries has created the demand to effectively monitor the surface roughness during the production process. Acoustic emission phenomenon has been proven as useful monitoring technique in several manufacturing processes ranging from monitoring of bearing production to tool wear estimation. This paper introduces a rare and unique approach with the application of acoustic emission technique to monitor the surface roughness of borosilicate-crown glass during an ultra high precision grinding process. This research was carried out on a 4-axes Nanoform 250 ultrahigh precision lathe machine using an ultra high precision grinding spindle to machine the flat surface of the borosilicate-crown glass with the tip of the grinding wheel. A careful selection of parameters and design of experiment was implemented using Box-Behnken method to vary the wheel speed, feed rate and depth of cut at three levels with a 3-center point design. Furthermore, the average surface roughness was measured using Taylor Hobson PGI Dimension XL optical profilometer, and an acoustic emission data acquisition device from National Instruments was utilized to acquire the signals while the data acquisition codes were designed with National Instrument LabVIEW software for acquisition at a sampling rate of 2 million samples per second. The results show that the raw and root mean square amplitude values of the acoustic signals increased with a corresponding increase in the measured average surface roughness values for the different parameter combinations. Therefore, this research concludes that acoustic emission monitoring technique is a potential technique for monitoring the surface roughness in the ultra high precision grinding of borosilicate-crown glass.

Keywords: acoustic emission, borosilicate-crown glass, surface roughness, ultra high precision grinding

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Authors: Hagos Abraham, Solomon Gizaw, Mengistu Urge

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A sound breeding objective is the basis for genetic improvement in overall economic merit of farm animals. Begait goat is one of the identified breeds in Ethiopia, which is a multipurpose breed as it serves as source of cash income and source of food (meat and milk). Despite its importance, no formal breeding objectives exist for Begait goat. The objective of the present study was to identify breeding objectives for the breed through two approaches: using own-flock ranking experiment and developing deterministic bio-economic models as a preliminary step towards designing sustainable breeding programs for the breed. In the own-flock ranking experiment, a total of forty five households were visited at their homesteads and were asked to select, with reasons, the first best, second best, third best and the most inferior does from their own flock. Age, previous reproduction and production information of the identified animals were inquired; live body weight and some linear body measurements were taken. The bio-economic model included performance traits (weights, daily weight gain, kidding interval, litter size, milk yield, kid mortality, pregnancy and replacement rates) and economic (revenue and costs) parameters. It was observed that there was close agreement between the farmers’ ranking and bio-economic model results. In general, the results of the present study indicated that Begait goat owners could improve performance of their goats and profitability of their farms by selecting for litter size, six month weight, pre-weaning kid survival rate and milk yield.

Keywords: bio-economic model, economic parameters, own-flock ranking, performance traits

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Authors: Yong Eun Yoon, Eric N. Johnson, Liling Ren

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Multirotor is one of the most popular types of small unmanned aircraft systems and has already been used in many areas including transport, military, surveillance, and leisure. Together with its popularity, the needs for proper flight control is growing because in most applications it is required to conduct its missions autonomously, which is in many aspects based on autonomous flight control. There have been many studies about the flight control for multirotor, but there is still room for enhancements in terms of performance and efficiency. This paper presents an autonomous flight control method for multirotor based on alternative input output linearization coupled with nested saturations. With alternative choice of the output of the multirotor flight control system, we can reduce computational cost regarding Lie algebra, and the linearized system can be stabilized with the introduction of nested saturations with real poles of our own design. Stabilization of internal dynamics is also based on the nested saturations and accompanies the determination of part of desired states. In particular, outer control loops involving state variables which originally are not included in the output of the flight control system is naturally rendered through this internal dynamics stabilization. We can also observe that desired tilting angles are determined by error dynamics from outer loops. Simulation results show that in any tracking situations multirotor stabilizes itself with small time constants, preceded by tuning process for control parameters with relatively low degree of complexity. Future study includes control of piecewise linear behavior of multirotor with actuator saturations, and the optimal determination of desired states while tracking multiple waypoints.

Keywords: automatic flight control, input output linearization, multirotor, nested saturations

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Authors: Aihong Zhao, Priya Sastry, Mark L Field, Mohamad Bashir, Arvind Singh, David Richens

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Objectives: Intramural haematoma (IMH) is one of the pathologies, along with acute aortic dissection, that present as Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS). Evidence suggests that unlike aortic dissection, some intramural haematomas may regress with medical management. However, intramural haematomas have been traditionally managed like acute aortic dissections. Given that some of these pathologies may regress with conservative management, it would be useful to be able to identify which of these may not need high risk emergency intervention. A computational aortic model was used in this study to try and identify intramural haematomas with risk of progression to aortic dissection. Methods: We created a computational model of the aorta with luminal blood flow. Reports in the literature have identified 11 mm as the radial clot thickness that is associated with heightened risk of progression of intramural haematoma. Accordingly, haematomas of varying sizes were implanted in the modeled aortic wall to test this hypothesis. The model was exposed to physiological blood flows and the stresses and strains in each layer of the aortic wall were recorded. Results: Size and shape of clot were seen to affect the magnitude of aortic stresses. The greatest stresses and strains were recorded in the intima of the model. When the haematoma exceeded 10 mm in all dimensions, the stress on the intima reached breaking point. Conclusion: Intramural clot size appears to be a contributory factor affecting aortic wall stress. Our computer simulation corroborates clinical evidence in the literature proposing that IMH diameter greater than 11 mm may be predictive of progression. This preliminary report suggests finite element modelling of the aortic wall may be a useful process by which to examine putative variables important in predicting progression or regression of intramural haematoma.

Keywords: intramural haematoma, acute aortic syndrome, finite element analysis,

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Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Dawit Wolday, Muhamud Abdulkader

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Background: COVID-19 symptomatology in Africa appears significantly less serious than in the industrialized world. Our hypothesis for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections contributes to reduced COVID-19 outcome. We investigated this hypothesis in an endemic area in sub sub-saharan Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, while direct microscopic examination, modified Ritchie concentration, and Kato-Katz methods were used to identify parasites and ova from a fresh stool sample. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37•8%) had an intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10•6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51•8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients appeared parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0•14 (95% CI 0•09–0•24; p<0•0001) for all parasites, AOR 0•20 ([95% CI 0•11–0•38]; p<0•0001) for protozoa, and AOR 0•13 ([95% CI 0•07–0•26]; p<0•0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolopis nana, and Schistosoma mansoni implied a lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1•5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p=0•009). Conclusions: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, intestinal parasite, RT-PCR, co-infection

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Authors: Tahereh Talebi, Reza Ghomashchi, Pejman Talemi, Sima Aminorroaya

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Electrophoretic deposition (EPD) of p-type Bi₂Te₃ material has been accomplished, and a high quality crack-free thick film has been achieved for thermoelectric (TE) applications. TE generators (TEG) can convert waste heat into electricity, which can potentially solve global warming problems. However, TEG is expensive due to the high cost of materials, as well as the complex and expensive manufacturing process. EPD is a simple and cost-effective method which has been used recently for advanced applications. In EPD, when a DC electric field is applied to the charged powder particles suspended in a suspension, they are attracted and deposited on the substrate with the opposite charge. In this study, it has been shown that it is possible to prepare a TE film using the EPD method and potentially achieve high TE properties at low cost. The relationship between the deposition weight and the EPD-related process parameters, such as applied voltage and time, has been investigated and a linear dependence has been observed, which is in good agreement with the theoretical principles of EPD. A stable EPD suspension of p-type Bi₂Te₃ was prepared in a mixture of acetone-ethanol with triethanolamine as a stabilizer. To achieve a high quality homogenous film on a copper substrate, the optimum voltage and time of the EPD process was investigated. The morphology and microstructures of the green deposited films have been investigated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The green Bi₂Te₃ films have shown good adhesion to the substrate. In summary, this study has shown that not only EPD of p-type Bi₂Te₃ material is possible, but its thick film is of high quality for TE applications.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, electrophoretic deposition, mechanical property, p-type Bi2Te3, Seebeck coefficient, thermoelectric materials, thick films

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Authors: Dicko Ali Hamadi, Tong-Yette Nicolas, Gilles Benjamin, Faure Francois, Palombi Olivier

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A novel hybrid model of the lumbar spine, allowing fast static and dynamic simulations of the disc pressure and the spine mobility, is introduced in this work. Our contribution is to combine rigid bodies, deformable finite elements, articular constraints, and springs into a unique model of the spine. Each vertebra is represented by a rigid body controlling a surface mesh to model contacts on the facet joints and the spinous process. The discs are modeled using a heterogeneous tetrahedral finite element model. The facet joints are represented as elastic joints with six degrees of freedom, while the ligaments are modeled using non-linear one-dimensional elastic elements. The challenge we tackle is to make these different models efficiently interact while respecting the principles of Anatomy and Mechanics. The mobility, the intradiscal pressure, the facet joint force and the instantaneous center of rotation of the lumbar spine are validated against the experimental and theoretical results of the literature on flexion, extension, lateral bending as well as axial rotation. Our hybrid model greatly simplifies the modeling task and dramatically accelerates the simulation of pressure within the discs, as well as the evaluation of the range of motion and the instantaneous centers of rotation, without penalizing precision. These results suggest that for some types of biomechanical simulations, simplified models allow far easier modeling and faster simulations compared to usual full-FEM approaches without any loss of accuracy.

Keywords: hybrid, modeling, fast simulation, lumbar spine

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Authors: Sivakumar Kottapalli, Abdesselam Abdelouas, Christoph Hartnack

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Spent nuclear fuel generates a mixed field of ionizing radiation to the water. This radiation field is generally dominated by gamma rays and a limited flux of fast neutrons. The fuel cladding effectively attenuates beta and alpha particle radiation. Small fraction of the spent nuclear fuel exhibits some degree of fuel cladding penetration due to pitting corrosion and mechanical failure. Breaches in the fuel cladding allow the exposure of small volumes of water in the cask to alpha and beta ionizing radiation. The safety of the transport of radioactive material is assured by the package complying with the IAEA Requirements for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material SSR-6. It is of high interest to avoid generation of hydrogen inside the cavity which may to an explosive mixture. The risk of hydrogen production along with other radiation gases should be analyzed for a typical spent fuel for safety issues. This work aims to perform a realistic study of the production of hydrogen by radiolysis assuming most penalizing initial conditions. It consists in the calculation of the radionuclide inventory of a pellet taking into account the burn up and decays. Westinghouse 17X17 PWR fuel has been chosen and data has been analyzed for different sets of enrichment, burnup, cycles of irradiation and storage conditions. The inventory is calculated as the entry point for the simulation studies of hydrogen production by radiolysis kinetic models by MAKSIMA-CHEMIST. Dose rates decrease strongly within ~45 μm from the fuel surface towards the solution(water) in case of alpha radiation, while the dose rate decrease is lower in case of beta and even slower in case of gamma radiation. Calculations are carried out to obtain spectra as a function of time. Radiation dose rate profiles are taken as the input data for the iterative calculations. Hydrogen yield has been found to be around 0.02 mol/L. Calculations have been performed for a realistic scenario considering a capsule containing the spent fuel rod. Thus, hydrogen yield has been debated. Experiments are under progress to validate the hydrogen production rate using cyclotron at > 5MeV (at ARRONAX, Nantes).

Keywords: radiolysis, spent fuel, hydrogen, cyclotron

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Authors: Melkamu A., Woldu B., Sitotaw C., Seyoum M., Aynalem M.

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Background: Liver disease is any condition that affects the liver cells and their function. It is directly linked to coagulation disorders since most coagulation factors are produced by the liver. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the magnitude and associated factors of coagulation abnormalities among liver disease patients. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from August to October 2022 among 307 consecutively selected study participants at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire and data extraction sheet, respectively. About 2.7 mL of venous blood was collected and analyzed by the Genrui CA51 coagulation analyzer. Data was entered into Epi-data and exported to STATA version 14 software for analysis. The finding was described in terms of frequencies and proportions. Factors associated with coagulation abnormalities were analyzed by bivariable and multivariable logistic regression. Result: In this study, a total of 307 study participants were included. Of them, the magnitude of prolonged Prothrombin Time (PT) and Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT) were 68.08% and 63.51%, respectively. The presence of anemia (AOR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.26, 7.03), a lack of a vegetable feeding habit (AOR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.42, 6.24), no history of blood transfusion (AOR = 3.72, 95% CI: 1.78, 7.78), and lack of physical exercise (AOR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.60, 6.52) were significantly associated with prolonged PT. While the presence of anaemia (AOR = 3.02; 95% CI: 1.34, 6.76), lack of vegetable feeding habit (AOR = 2.64; 95% CI: 1.34, 5.20), no history of blood transfusion (AOR = 2.28; 95% CI: 1.09, 4.79), and a lack of physical exercise (AOR = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.16, 4.78) were significantly associated with abnormal APTT. Conclusion: Patients with liver disease had substantial coagulation problems. Being anemic, having a transfusion history, lack of physical activity, and lack of vegetables showed significant association with coagulopathy. Therefore, early detection and management of coagulation abnormalities in liver disease patients are critical.

Keywords: coagulation, liver disease, PT, Aptt

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Authors: Yibeltal T. Bayou, Yohana S. Mashalla, Gloria Thupayagale-Tshweneagae

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Background: Maternal mortality has been shown to be lower in urban areas than in rural areas. However, disparities for the fast-growing population of urban poor who struggle as much their rural counterparts to access quality healthcare are masked by the urban averages. The aim of this paper is to report on the findings of antenatal adequacy among slum residents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods and Materials: A quantitative and cross-sectional community-based study design was employed. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to determine the sample and data was collected using structured questionnaire administered to 837 women aged 15-49 years. Binary logistic regression models were employed to identify predictors of adequacy of antenatal care. Results: The majority of slum residents did not have adequate antenatal care services i.e., only 50.7%, 19.3% and 10.2% of the slum resident women initiated early antenatal care, received adequate antenatal care service contents and had overall adequate antenatal care services. Pregnancy intention, educational status and place of ANC visits were important determinant factors for adequacy of ANC in the study area. Women with secondary and above educational status were 2.9 times more likely to have overall adequate care compared to those with no formal education. Similarly, women whose last pregnancy was intended and clients of private healthcare facilities were 1.8 and 2.8 times more likely to have overall adequate antenatal care compared to those whose last pregnancy was unintended and clients of public healthcare facilities respectively. Conclusion: In order to improve ANC adequacy in the study area, the policymaking, planning, and implementation processes should focus on the poor adequacy of ANC among the disadvantaged groups in particular and the slum residents in general.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, adequacy of antenatal care, slum residents, maternal mortality

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Authors: Elena Petersen, Inna Kornienko, Svetlana Guryeva, Sergey Dobdin, Anatoly Skripal, Andrey Usanov, Dmitry Usanov

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One of the most important unsolved problems in modern medicine is the increase of chronic diseases that lead to organ dysfunction or even complete loss of function. Current methods of treatment do not result in decreased mortality and disability statistics. Currently, the best treatment for many patients is still transplantation of organs and/or tissues. Therefore, finding a way of correct artificial matrix biofabrication in case of limited number of natural organs for transplantation is a critical task. One important problem that needs to be solved is development of a nondestructive and noninvasive method to analyze dynamic changes of mechanical characteristics of a matrix with minimal side effects on the growing cells. This research was focused on investigating the properties of matrix as a marker of graft condition. In this study, the collagen gel with human primary dermal fibroblasts in suspension (60, 120, 240*103 cells/mL) and collagen gel with cell spheroids were used as model objects. The stiffness and elasticity characteristics were evaluated by a semiconductor laser autodyne. The time and cell concentration dependency of the stiffness and elasticity were investigated. It was shown that these properties changed in a non-linear manner with respect to cell concentration. The maximum matrix stiffness was observed in the collagen gel with the cell concentration of 120*103 cells/mL. This study proved the opportunity to use the mechanical properties of matrix as a marker of graft condition, which can be measured by noninvasive semiconductor laser autodyne technique.

Keywords: graft, matrix, noninvasive method, regenerative medicine, semiconductor laser autodyne

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Authors: M. Naimi, M. B. Khaled

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The present study consisted of an applied test in meat system to assess the effectiveness of three bio agents bacteriocinproducing strains: Lm24: Lactobacillus sakei, Lm14and Lm25: Pediococcus spp. Two tests were carried out: The ex-situ test was intended for three batches added with crude bacteriocin solutions at 12.48 AU/ml for Lm25 and 8.4 AU/ml for Lm14 and Lm24. However, the in situ one consisted of four batches; three of them inoculated with one bacteriocinogenic Lm25, Lm14, Lm24, respectively. The fourth one was used in mixture: Lm14+m24 at approximately of 107 CFU/ml. The two used tests were done in the presence of the pathogen St. aureus ATCC 6538, as a test strain at 103 CFU/ml. Another batch served as a positive or a negative control was used too. The incubation was performed at 7°C. Total viable counts, staphylococci and lactic acid bacteria, at the beginning and at selected times with interval of three days were enumerated. Physicochemical determinations (except for in situ test): pH, dry mater, sugars, fat and total protein, at the beginning and at end of the experiment, were done, according to the international norms. Our results confirmed the ex situ effectiveness. Furthermore, the batches affected negatively the total microbial load over the incubation days, and showed a significant regression in staphylococcal load at day seven, for Lm14, Lm24, and Lm25 of 0.73, 2.11, and 2.4 log units. It should be noticed that, at the last day of culture, staphylococcal load was nil for the three batches. In the in situ test, the cultures displayed less inhibitory attitude and recorded a decrease in staphylococcal load, for Lm14, Lm24, Lm25, Lm14+m24 of 0.73, 0.20, 0.86, 0.032 log units. Therefore, physicochemical analysis for Lm14, Lm24, Lm25, Lm14+m24 showed an increase in pH from 5.50 to 5.77, 6.18, 5.96, 7.22, a decrease in dry mater from 7.30% to 7.05%, 6.87%, 6.32%, 6.00%.This result reflects the decrease in fat ranging from 1.53% to 1.49%, 1.07%, 0.99%, 0.87%; and total protein from 6.18% to 5.25%, 5.56%, 5.37%, 5.5%. This study suggests that the use of selected strains as Lm25 could lead to the best results and would help in preserving and extending the shelf life of lamb meat.

Keywords: biocontrol, in situ, ex situ, meat system, St. aureus, Lactobacillus sakei, Pediococcus spp.

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Authors: Sema Kayapinar, Ismail Karaoglan, Turan Paksoy, Hadi Gokcen

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Green Supply Chain Management is gaining growing interest among researchers and supply chain management. The concept of Green Supply Chain Management is to integrate environmental thinking into the Supply Chain Management. It is the systematic concept emphasis on environmental problems such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, recycling end of life products, generation of solid and hazardous waste. This study is to present a green supply chain network model integrated Internet of Things applications. Internet of Things provides to get precise and accurate information of end-of-life product with sensors and systems devices. The forward direction consists of suppliers, plants, distributions centres and sales and collect centres while, the reverse flow includes the sales and collects centres, disassembled centre, recycling and disposal centre. The sales and collection centre sells the new products are transhipped from factory via distribution centre and also receive the end-of life product according their value level. We describe green logistics activities by presenting specific examples including “recycling of the returned products and “reduction of CO2 gas emissions”. The different transportation choices are illustrated between echelons according to their CO2 gas emissions. This problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model to solve the green supply chain problems which are emerged from the environmental awareness and responsibilities. This model is solved by using Gams package program. Numerical examples are suggested to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.

Keywords: green supply chain optimization, internet of things, greenhouse gas emission, recycling

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Authors: Neda Orak, Mostafa Zarei

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Environmental assessment is an important session in environment management. Since various methods and techniques have been produces and implemented. Remote sensing (RS) is widely used in many scientific and research fields such as geology, cartography, geography, agriculture, forestry, land use planning, environment, etc. It can show earth surface objects cyclical changes. Also, it can show earth phenomena limits on basis of electromagnetic reflectance changes and deviations records. The research has been done on mangrove forests assessment by RS techniques. Mangrove forests quantitative analysis in Basatin and Bidkhoon estuaries was the aim of this research. It has been done by Landsat satellite images from 1975- 2013 and match to ground control points. This part of mangroves are the last distribution in northern hemisphere. It can provide a good background to improve better management on this important ecosystem. Landsat has provided valuable images to earth changes detection to researchers. This research has used MSS, TM, +ETM, OLI sensors from 1975, 1990, 2000, 2003-2013. Changes had been studied after essential corrections such as fix errors, bands combination, georeferencing on 2012 images as basic image, by maximum likelihood and IPVI Index. It was done by supervised classification. 2004 google earth image and ground points by GPS (2010-2012) was used to compare satellite images obtained changes. Results showed mangrove area in bidkhoon was 1119072 m2 by GPS and 1231200 m2 by maximum likelihood supervised classification and 1317600 m2 by IPVI in 2012. Basatin areas is respectively: 466644 m2, 88200 m2, 63000 m2. Final results show forests have been declined naturally. It is due to human activities in Basatin. The defect was offset by planting in many years. Although the trend has been declining in recent years again. So, it mentioned satellite images have high ability to estimation all environmental processes. This research showed high correlation between images and indexes such as IPVI and NDVI with ground control points.

Keywords: IPVI index, Landsat sensor, maximum likelihood supervised classification, Nayband National Park

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