Search results for: weather forecast

Authors: L. Haddad, Z. Aouachria

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The development of transport systems has negative impacts on the environment although it has beneficial effects on society.. The car policy caused many problems such as: - the spectacular growth of fuel consumption hence the very vast increase in urban pollution, traffic congestion in certain places and at certain times, the increase in the number of accidents. The exhaust emissions from cars and weather conditions are the main factors that determine the level of pollution in urban atmosphere. These conditions lead to the phenomenon of heat transfer and radiation occurring between the air and the soil surface of any town. These exchanges give rise, in urban areas, to the effects of heat islands that correspond to the appearance of excess air temperature between the city and its surrounding space. In this object, we perform a numerical simulation of the plume generated by the cars exhaust gases and show that these gases form a screening effect above the urban city which cause the heat island in the presence of wind flow. This study allows us: i. To understand the different mechanisms of interactions between these phenomena. ii. To consider appropriate technical solutions to mitigate the effects of the heat island.

Keywords: atmospheric pollution, impact on the health, urban transport, heat island

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Authors: Wolfram Jahn, Jose Manuel Munita

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While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of fire scenarios are commonly used in the design of buildings, less attention has been given to the use of CFD simulations as an operational tool for the fire services. The reason of this lack of attention lies mainly in the fact that CFD simulations typically take large periods of time to complete, and their results would thus not be available in time to be of use during an emergency. Firefighters often face uncertain conditions when entering a building to attack a fire. They would greatly benefit from a technology based on predictive fire simulations, able to assist their decision-making process. The principal constraint to faster CFD simulations is the fine grid necessary to solve accurately the physical processes that govern a fire. This paper explores the possibility of overcoming this constraint and using coarse grid CFD simulations for fire scenarios, and proposes a methodology to use the simulation results in a meaningful way that can be used by the fire fighters during an emergency. Data from real scale compartment fire tests were used to compare CFD fire models with different grid arrangements, and empirical correlations were obtained to interpolate data points into the grids. The results show that the strongly predominant effect of the heat release rate of the fire on the fluid dynamics allows for the use of coarse grids with relatively low overall impact of simulation results. Simulations with an acceptable level of accuracy could be run in real time, thus making them useful as a forecasting tool for emergency response purposes.

Keywords: CFD, fire simulations, emergency response, forecast

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Hasan A Al-Asadi, Ali Samir, Afrah Turki Awad, Ali Basem

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Integrating the phase change material (PCM) with photovoltaic (PV) panels is one of the effective techniques to minimize the PV panel temperature and increase their electric output. In order to investigate the impact of the PCM on the electric output of the PV panels for a whole year, a lumped-distributed parameter model for the PV-PCM module has been developed. This development has considered the impact of the PCM density variation between the solid phase and liquid phase. This contribution will increase the assessment accuracy of the electric output of the PV-PCM module. The second contribution is to assess the impact of the expanded composite graphite-PCM on the PV electric output in Milan for a whole year. The novel one-dimensional model has been solved using MATLAB software. The results of this model have been validated against literature experiment work. The weather and the solar radiation data have been collected. The impact of expanded graphite-PCM on the electric output of the PV panel for a whole year has been investigated. The results indicate this impact has an enhancement rate of 2.39% for the electric output of the PV panel in Milan for a whole year.

Keywords: PV panel efficiency, PCM, numerical model, solar energy

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Authors: Nour Aljafari, Mariam, S. Maani, Serter Atabay, Tarig Ali, Said Daker, Lara Daher, Hamad Bukhammas, Mohammed Abou Shakra

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This paper aims at determining the soil characteristics that influence the irrigation process of green landscapes and deciding on the optimum amount of water needed for irrigation. The laboratory experiments were conducted using the constant head methodology to determine the soil infiltration rates. The steady state infiltration rate was reached after 10 minutes of infiltration at a rate of 200 mm/hr. The effects of different water heads on infiltration rates were also investigated, and the head of 11 cm was found to be the optimum head for the test. The experimental results showed consistent infiltration results for the range between 11 cm and 15 cm. The study also involved finding the initial moisture content, which ranged between 5% and 25%, and finding the organic content, which occupied 1% to 2% of the soil. These results will be later utilized, using the water balance approach, to estimate the optimum amount of water needed for irrigation for changing weather conditions.

Keywords: infiltration rate, moisture content, grass type, organic content

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Authors: Sayed Kifayat Shah, Tang Zhongjun, Arfa Tanveer

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This study explores the significant heatwave effect on stock return and volatility. Using an ARCH/GARCH approach, it examines the relationship between the heatwave of Karachi, Islamabad, and Lahore on the KSE-100 index. It also explores the impact of heatwave on returns of the pharmaceutical and electronics industries. The empirical results confirm that that stock return is positively related to the heat waves of Karachi, negatively related to that of Islamabad, and is not affected by the heatwave of Lahore. Similarly, pharmaceutical and electronics indices are also positively related to heatwaves. These differences in results can be ascribed to the change in the behavior of the residents of that city. The outcomes are useful for understanding an investor's behavior reacting to weather and fluxes in stock price related to heatwave severity levels. The results can support investors in fixing biases in behavior.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH model, heat wave, KSE-100 index, stock market return

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Authors: Zilong Peng, Jun Fan

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With the improvement of the living standards, the requirement on the acoustic comfort of the vehicle interior environment is becoming higher. The rain-the-roof producing interior noise is a common phenomenon for the vehicle, which usually discourages the conversation, especially for the heavy rain. This paper presents some numerical results about the rain-the-roof noise. The impact of each water drop is modeled as a short pulse, and the excitation locations on the roof are generated randomly. The vehicle body is simplified to a box closed with some certain-thickness shells. According to the main frequency components of the rain excitation, the analyzing frequency range is divided as low, high and middle frequency domains, which makes the vehicle body are modeled using finite element method (FEM), statistical energy analysis (SEA) and hybrid FE-SEA method, respectively. Furthermore, the effect of spatial distribution density and size of the rain on the sound pressure level are also discussed. These results may provide a guide for designing a more silent vehicle in the special weather.

Keywords: rain-the-roof noise, vehicle, finite element method, statistical energy analysis

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Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection

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Authors: Saleh B. Mohamed, Mohamed H. Elhsnawi, Mesbah M. Salem

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Current and future applications of small gas turbine engines annular type combustors have requirements presenting difficult disputes to the combustor designer. Reduced cost and fuel consumption and improved durability and reliability as well as higher temperatures and pressures for such application are forecast. Coupled with these performance requirements, irrespective of the engine size, is the demand to control the pollutant emissions, namely the oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, smoke and unburned hydrocarbons. These technical and environmental challenges have made the design of small size combustion system a very hard task. Thus, the main target of this work is to generalize a calculation method of annular type combustors for small gas turbine engines that enables to understand the fundamental concepts of the coupled processes and to identify the proper procedure that formulates and solves the problems in combustion fields in as much simplified and accurate manner as possible. The combustion chamber in task is designed with central vaporizing unit and to deliver 516.3 KW of power. The geometrical constraints are 142 mm & 140 mm overall length and casing diameter, respectively, while the airflow rate is 0.8 kg/sec and the fuel flow rate is 0.012 kg/sec. The relevant design equations are programmed by using MathCAD language for ease and speed up of the calculation process.

Keywords: design of gas turbine, small engine design, annular type combustors, mechanical engineering

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Authors: Yang Zhou, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is a fundamental problem in urban environment, facilitating the smart management of various businesses, such as taxi dispatching, bike relocation, and stampede alert. Most earlier methods rely on identifying the intrinsic spatial-temporal correlation to forecast. However, the complex nature of this problem entails a more sophisticated solution that can simultaneously capture the mutual influence of both adjacent and far-flung areas, with the information of time-dimension also incorporated seamlessly. To tackle this difficulty, we propose a new multi-phase architecture, DSTDS (Dual Spatial-Temporal Data Scheme for traffic prediction), that aims to reveal the underlying relationship that determines future traffic trend. First, a graph-based neural network with an attention mechanism is devised to obtain the static features of the road network. Then, a multi-granularity recurrent neural network is built in conjunction with the knowledge from a grid-based model. Subsequently, the preceding output is fed into a spatial-temporal super-resolution module. With this 3-phase structure, we carry out extensive experiments on several real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which surpasses several state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: traffic prediction, spatial-temporal, recurrent neural network, dual data scheme

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Authors: M. Belouadah, S. Rahmouni, N. Teballe

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The durability of concrete is not one of its features, but its response to service loads and environmental conditions. Thus, the durability of concrete depends on a variety of material characteristics, but also the aggressiveness of the environment. Much durability problems encountered in tropical regions (region M'sila) due to the presence of chlorides and sulfates (in the ground or in the aggregate) with the additional aggravation of the effect of hot weather and arid. This lack of sustainability has a direct influence on the structure of the building and can lead to the complete deterioration of many buildings. The characteristics of the nature of fillers are evaluated based on the degree of aggressiveness of the environment considering as a means of characterization: mechanical strength, porosity. Specimens will be exposed to different storage media chemically aggressive drinking water, salts and sulfates (sodium chloride, MgSO4), solutions are not renewed or PH control solutions. The parameters taken into account are: age, the nature and degree of aggressiveness of the environment conservation, the incorporation of adjuvant type superplasticizer dosage and mineral additives.

Keywords: ordinary concretes, marble powder fillers, adjuvant, strength

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Authors: Bakr Gomaa

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Cross ventilation is an important and practical mean to achieve thermal comfort and conserve energy. This is especially true in the breezy waterfront settings. However, due to a number of factors, cross ventilation in buildings is usually studied by using oversimplified scenarios. It is then reasonable to study the impact of complex set of factors on the accuracy of predicting air flow rate because of wind driven cross ventilation. The objective of this paper is to provide architects with the tools necessary to achieve natural ventilation for cooling purposes in a waterfront urban canyon context. Also, urban canyons have not received much attention in terms of their impact on cross ventilation, and while we know how the wind flows between buildings in different urban canyon settings, the effect of the parallel-to-the-wind urban canyon on cross ventilation in buildings remains unclear. For this, we use detailed weather data, boundary layer correction factor, and CFD simulations to study the pressure patterns that form on the canyons surfaces in the case study of Alexandria. We found that the simplified numerical methods of calculating the cross ventilation in buildings can lead to inaccurate design decisions.

Keywords: cross ventilation, Alexandria, CFD, urban canyon

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Authors: Moammar Dayoub

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The study aimed to know the reality of farmers and determine the extent of adoption of the recommendations of the fertilizer and the difficulties and problems they face. The study was conducted on a random sample of farmers consist of 95 farmers who had analysed their field soil in scientific research centres in agricultural southern region through the form specially prepared for this purpose, the results showed that the rate of adoption of the fertilizer recommendations whole amounted to an average of 36.9% in the southern region, The degree of adoption was 34.7% in the region. The results showed that 41% of farmers did not implement the recommendations because of the non-convenient analysis, and 34% due to neglect, and 15% due to the weather and an environment, while 10% of them for lack of manure in the suitable time. The study also revealed that Independent factors affecting the continuing adoption of soil analysis are: farms experience, sampling method in farmer’s schools, irrigated area, and personal knowledge of farmers in analysing the soil. Also, show that the application of fertilizer recommendations led to increased production by 15-20%, this analysis emphasizes the importance of soil analysis and adherence to the recommendations of the research centres.

Keywords: adoption, recommendations of the fertilizer, soil analysis, southern region

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Authors: W. H. Zheng, J. Li, F. J. Hong

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Thin liquid film evaporation in ultrathin nanoporous membranes, which reduce the viscous resistance while still maintaining high capillary pressure and efficient liquid delivery, is a promising thermal management approach for high-power electronic devices cooling. Given the challenges and technical limitations of experimental studies for accurate interface temperature sensing, complex manufacturing process, and short duration of membranes, a dimensionless lattice Boltzmann method capable of restoring thermophysical properties of working fluid is particularly derived. The evaporation of R134a to its pure vapour ambient in nanoporous membranes with the pore diameter of 80nm, thickness of 472nm, and three porosities of 0.25, 0.33 and 0.5 are numerically simulated. The numerical results indicate that the highest heat transfer coefficient is about 1740kW/m²·K; the highest heat flux is about 1.49kW/cm² with only about the wall superheat of 8.59K in the case of porosity equals to 0.5. The dissipated heat flux scaled with porosity because of the increasing effective evaporative area. Additionally, the self-regulation of the shape and curvature of the meniscus under different operating conditions is also observed. This work shows a promising approach to forecast the membrane performance for different geometry and working fluids.

Keywords: high heat flux, ultrathin nanoporous membrane, thin film evaporation, lattice Boltzmann method

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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Authors: M. R. Naroui Rad, H. Fanaei, A. Ghalandarzehi

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To find out the yield of melon, the traits are vital. This research was performed with the objective to assess the impact of nine different morphological traits on the production of 20 melon landraces in the sistan weather region. For all the traits genetic variation was noted. Minimum genetical variance (9.66) along with high genetic interaction with the environment led to low heritability (0.24) of the yield. The broad sense heritability of the traits that were included into the differentiating model was more than it was in the production. In this study, the five selected traits, number of fruit, fruit weight, fruit width, flesh diameter and plant yield can differentiate the genotypes with high or low production. This demonstrated the significance of these 5 traits in plant breeding programs. Discriminant function of these 5 traits, particularly, the weight of the fruit, in case of the current outputs was employed as an all-inclusive parameter for pointing out landraces with the highest yield. 75% of variation in yield can be explained with this index, and the weight of fruit also has substantial relation with the total production (r=0.72**). This factor can be highly beneficial in case of future breeding program selections.

Keywords: melon, discriminant analysis, genetic components, yield, selection

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Authors: Bouthiba Amina

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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: M. Khazam, M. Altawil, A. Eljabri

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Fluid properties in states near a vapor-liquid critical region are the most difficult to measure and to predict with EoS models. The principal model difficulty is that near-critical property variations do not follow the same mathematics as at conditions far away from the critical region. Libyan NC98 field in Sirte basin is a typical example of near critical fluid characterized by high initial condensate gas ratio (CGR) greater than 160 bbl/MMscf and maximum liquid drop-out of 25%. The objective of this paper is to model NC98 phase behavior with the proper selection of EoS parameters and also to model reservoir depletion versus gas cycling option using measured PVT data and EoS Models. The outcomes of our study revealed that, for accurate gas and condensate recovery forecast during depletion, the most important PVT data to match are the gas phase Z-factor and C7+ fraction as functions of pressure. Reasonable match, within -3% error, was achieved for ultimate condensate recovery at abandonment pressure of 1500 psia. The smooth transition from gas-condensate to volatile oil was fairly simulated by the tuned PR-EoS. The predicted GOC was approximately at 14,380 ftss. The optimum gas cycling scheme, in order to maximize condensate recovery, should not be performed at pressures less than 5700 psia. The contribution of condensate vaporization for such field is marginal, within 8% to 14%, compared to gas-gas miscible displacement. Therefore, it is always recommended, if gas recycle scheme to be considered for this field, to start it at the early stage of field development.

Keywords: EoS models, gas-condensate, gas cycling, near critical fluid

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Authors: Abdulkadir Magaji

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This study analyzes and compares the actual measured and simulated performance of a 3.2 kwP grid-connected photovoltaic system. The system is located at the Outdoor Facility of Government Day secondary School Katsina State, which lies approximately between coordinate of 12°15′N 7°30′E. The system consists of 14 Mono crystalline silicon modules connected in two strings of 7 series-connected modules, each facing north at a fixed tilt of 340. The data presented in this study were measured in the year 2015, where the system supplied a total of 4628 kWh to the local electric utility grid. The performance of the system was simulated using PVsyst software using measured and Meteonorm derived climate data sets (solar radiation, ambient temperature and wind speed). The comparison between measured and simulated energy yield are discussed. Although, both simulation results were similar, better comparison between measured and predicted monthly energy yield is observed with simulation performed using measured weather data at the site. The measured performance ratio in the present study shows 58.4% is higher than those reported elsewhere as compared in the study.

Keywords: performance, evaluation, grid connection, photovoltaic system

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Authors: Mahdieh Jajroudi

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Developing a pharmacokinetic model for the neuroendocrine tumors therapy agent 177Lu-DOTATATE in nude mice bearing AR42J rat pancreatic tumor to investigate and evaluate the behavior of the complex was the main purpose of this study. The utilization of compartmental analysis permits the mathematical differencing of tissues and organs to become acquainted with the concentration of activity in each fraction of interest. Biodistribution studies are onerous and troublesome to perform in humans, but such data can be obtained facilely in rodents. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for scaling up activity concentration in particular organs versus time was developed. The mathematical model exerts physiological parameters including organ volumes, blood flow rates, and vascular permabilities; the compartments (organs) are connected anatomically. This allows the use of scale-up techniques to forecast new complex distribution in humans' each organ. The concentration of the radiopharmaceutical in various organs was measured at different times. The temporal behavior of biodistribution of 177Lu labeled somatostatin analogues was modeled and drawn as function of time. Conclusion: The variation of pharmaceutical concentration in all organs is characterized with summation of six to nine exponential terms and it approximates our experimental data with precision better than 1%.

Keywords: biodistribution modeling, compartmental analysis, 177Lu labeled somatostatin analogues, neuroendocrine tumors

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Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: A. Zaher, A. Traore, F. Thiéry, T. Talbert, B. Shaer

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In this paper, an intelligent approach is proposed to optimize the orientation of continuous solar tracking systems on cloudy days. Considering the weather case, the direct sunlight is more important than the diffuse radiation in case of clear sky. Thus, the panel is always pointed towards the sun. In case of an overcast sky, the solar beam is close to zero, and the panel is placed horizontally to receive the maximum of diffuse radiation. Under partly covered conditions, the panel must be pointed towards the source that emits the maximum of solar energy and it may be anywhere in the sky dome. Thus, the idea of our approach is to analyze the images, captured by ground-based sky camera system, in order to detect the zone in the sky dome which is considered as the optimal source of energy under cloudy conditions. The proposed approach is implemented using experimental setup developed at PROMES-CNRS laboratory in Perpignan city (France). Under overcast conditions, the results were very satisfactory, and the intelligent approach has provided efficiency gains of up to 9% relative to conventional continuous sun tracking systems.

Keywords: clouds detection, fuzzy inference systems, images processing, sun trackers

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Authors: Maria Tsompanoglou, Dimitris Armenis

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Vessel behavior in different operational and weather conditions constitutes the main area of interest for the ship operator. Ship speed and fuel consumption are the most decisive parameters in this respect, as their correlation provides information about the economic and environmental efficiency of the vessel, becoming the basis of decision making in terms of maintenance and trading. In the analysis of vessel operational profile for the evaluation of fuel consumption and the equivalent CO2 emissions footprint, the indications of Speed Through Water are widely used. The seasonal and regional variations in seawater characteristics, which are available nowadays, can provide the basis for accurate estimation of the errors in Speed Through Water indications at any time. Accuracy in the speed value on a route basis can enable operator identify the ship fuel and propulsion efficiency and proceed with improvements. This paper discusses case studies, where the actual vessel speed was corrected by a post-processing algorithm. The effects of the vessel correction to standard Key Performance Indicators, as well as operational findings not identified earlier, are also discussed.

Keywords: data analytics, MATLAB, vessel performance monitoring, speed through water

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Authors: Nur Amira nor Arifin, Tashia Marie Anthony, Mohd Ruzlin Mokhtar, Huzainie Shafi Abd Halim

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Cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) material is being used as the cable insulation for the past decades due to its higher working temperature of 90 ˚C and some other advantages. However, the use of XLPE as an insulating material for underground distribution cables may have subjected to the unforeseeable weather and uncontrollable environmental condition. These unfavorable condition when combine with high electric field may lead to the initiation and growth of water tree in XLPE insulation. There are several studies on numerous nanofillers incorporate into polymer matrix to hinder the growth of tree propagation. Hence, in this study aims to investigate the effect of MgO and rubber nanofillers at different concentration on the electrical tree of XLPE. The nanofillers and XLPE were mixed and later extruded. After extrusion, the material were then fabricated into the desired shape for experimental purposes. The result shows that the electrical tree propagation of XLPE filled with optimize concentration of nanofillers were much slower compared to pure XLPE. In this paper, the effect of nanofillers towards electrical treeing characteristic will be discussed.

Keywords: electrical trees, nanofillers, polymer nanocomposites, XLPE

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Authors: Reza Ziaie Moayed, Seyed Abdolhassan Naeini, Peyman Nouri, Hamed Yekehdehghan

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The shear strength of soils is a significant parameter in the design of clay structures, depots, clay gables, and freeways. Most research has addressed the shear strength of saturated soils. However, soils can become partially saturated with changes in weather, changes in groundwater levels, and the absorption of water by plant roots. Hence, it is necessary to study the strength behavior of partially saturated soils. The shear vane test is an experiment that determines the undrained shear strength of clay soils. This test may be performed in the laboratory or at the site. The present research investigates the effect of liquidity index (LI), plasticity index (PI), and saturation degree of the soil on its undrained shear strength obtained from the shear vane test. According to the results, an increase in the LI and a decrease in the PL of the soil decrease its undrained shear strength. Furthermore, studies show that a rise in the degree of saturation decreases the shear strength obtained from the shear vane test.

Keywords: liquidity index, plasticity index, shear strength, unsaturated soil

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Authors: Muhammad Hadi Ibrahim

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The benefits of alternative/renewable fuels in general and a study of the environmental impacts of biofuels in particular have been reviewed in this paper. It is a known fact that, energy generation using fossil fuel produces many important pollutants including; nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, soot, dust, smoke and other particulate harmful matter. It’s believed that if carbon dioxide levels continue to increase drastically, the planet will become warmer and will most likely result in a variety of negative impacts including; sea-level rise, extreme and unpredictable weather events and an increased frequency of draughts in inland agricultural zones. Biofuels such as alcohols, biogas, etc. appear to be more viable alternatives, especially for use as fuels in diesel engines. The substitution of fossil fuel through increased utilization of biofuels produced in a sustainable manner, can contribute immensely towards a cleaner environment, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation of climate change. Stakeholders in the energy sector can be sensitized by the findings of the research study and to consider the possible adverse effects in developing technologies for the production and combustion of biofuels.

Keywords: emission, energy, renewable/alternative fuel, environment, pollution

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

Abstract:

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

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Authors: Lenka Matulova

Abstract:

Geopolymers are alumosilicate materials that have long been studied. Despite this fact, little is known about the long-term stability of geopolymer mechanical and structural properties, so crucial for their successful industrial application. To improve understanding, we investigated the effect of four different types of environments on the mechanical and structural properties of a metakaolin-based geopolymer (MK GP). The MK GP samples were stored in laboratory conditions (control samples), in water at 20 °C, in water at 80 °C, and outside exposed to the weather. Compressive and tensile strengths were measured after 28, 56, 90, and 360 days. In parallel, structural properties were analyzed using XRD, SEM, and mercury intrusion porosimetry. Whereas the mechanical properties of the samples in laboratory conditions and in 20 °C water were stable, the mechanical properties of the outdoor samples and the samples 80 °C water decreased noticeably after 360 days. Structural analyses were focused on changes in sample microstructure (developing microcrack network, porosity) and identifying zeolites, the presence of which would indicate detrimental processes in the structure that can change it from amorphous to crystalline. No zeolites were found during the 360-day period in MK GP samples, but the reduction in mechanical properties coincided with a developing network of microcracks and changes in pore size distribution.

Keywords: geopolymer, long-term properties, mechanical properties, metakaolin, structural properties

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