Search results for: uncertainty in reasoning

Authors: Moataz M. Hamed, Khalid S. M. Al Hagla, Zeyad El Sayad

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Thinking in design energy-efficiency and high-performance green buildings require a different design mechanism and design approach than conventional buildings to achieve more sustainable result. By reasoning about specific issues at the correct time in the design process, the design team can minimize negative impacts, maximize building performance and keep both first and operation costs low. This paper attempts to investigate and exploit the sustainable dimension of building information modeling (BIM) in designing high-performance green buildings that require less energy for operation, emit less carbon dioxide and provide a conducive indoor environment for occupants through early phases of the design process. This objective was attained by a critical and extensive literature review that covers the following issues: the value of considering green strategies in the early design stage, green design workflow, and BIM-based performance analysis. Then the research proceeds with a case study that provides an in-depth comparative analysis of building performance evaluation between an office building in Alexandria, Egypt that was designed by the conventional design process with the same building if taking into account sustainability consideration and BIM-based sustainable analysis integration early through the design process. Results prove that using sustainable capabilities of building information modeling (BIM) in early stages of the design process side by side with green design workflow promote buildings performance and sustainability outcome.

Keywords: BIM, building performance analysis, BIM-based sustainable analysis, green building design

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Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter

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Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.

Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import

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Authors: Noushin Naraghi Araghi, M. Nawawi, Syed Mustafizur Rahman

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This paper presents the effect of Sumatra fault earthquakes on west Malaysia by calculating the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A uniform catalog of earthquakes for the interest region has been provided. We used empirical relations to convert all magnitudes to Moment Magnitude. After eliminating foreshocks and aftershocks in order to achieve more reliable results, the completeness of the catalog and uncertainty of magnitudes have been estimated and seismicity parameters were calculated. Our seismic source model considers the Sumatran strike slip fault that is known historically to generate large earthquakes. The calculations were done using the logic tree method and four attenuation relationships and slip rates for different part of this fault. Seismic hazard assessment carried out for 48 grid points. Eventually, two seismic hazard maps based PGA for 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year are presented.

Keywords: Sumatra fault, west Malaysia, PGA, seismic parameters

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Krisada Roekdethawesab, Manoj Lohatepanont

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Overbooking is an approach of selling more goods or services than available capacities because sellers anticipate that some buyers will not show-up or may cancel their bookings. At present, many airlines deploy overbooking strategy in order to deal with the uncertainty of their customers. Particularly, some airlines sell more cargo capacity than what they have available to freight forwarders with beliefs that some of them will cancel later. In this paper, we propose methods to find the optimal overbooking level of volume and weight for air cargo in order to minimize the total cost, containing cost of spoilage and cost of offloaded. Cancellations of volume and weight are jointly random variables with a known joint distribution. Heuristic approaches applying the idea of weight and volume independency is considered to find an appropriate answer to the full problem. Computational experiments are used to explore the performance of approaches presented in this paper, as compared to a naïve method under different scenarios.

Keywords: air cargo overbooking, offloading capacity, optimal overbooking level, revenue management, spoilage capacity

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Authors: Jeansou Moun

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This study argues that constructivism and structuralism, which have been the two important schools of mathematical philosophy since the mid-19th century, can and should be synthesized into structure-constructivism. In fact, the philosophy of mathematics is divided into more than ten schools depending on the point of view. However, the biggest trend is Platonism which claims that mathematical objects are "abstract entities" that exists independently of the human mind and material objects. Its opposite is constructivism. According to the latter, mathematical objects are products of the construction of the human mind. However, whether the basis of the construction is a logical device, a symbolic system, or an empirical perception, it is subdivided into logicism, formalism, and intuitionism. However, these three schools themselves are further subdivided into various variants, and among them, structuralism, which emerged in the mid-20th century, is receiving the most attention. On the other hand, structuralism which emphasizes structure instead of individual objects, is divided into non-eliminative structuralism, which supports the a priori of structure, and non-eliminative structuralism, which rejects any abstract entity. In this context, it is believed that the structure itself is not an a priori entity but a result of the construction of the cognitive subject and that no object has ever been given to us in its full meaning from the outset. In other words, concepts are progressively structured through a dialectical cycle between sensory perception, imagination (abstraction), concepts, judgments, and reasoning. Symbols are needed for formal operation. However, without concrete manipulation, the formal operation cannot have any meaning. However, when formal structurization is achieved, the reality (object) itself is also newly structured. This is the "structure-constructivism".

Keywords: philosophy of mathematics, platonism, logicism, formalism, constructivism, structuralism, structure-constructivism

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Authors: Fatima Gouiferda

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Uncertainty and competitiveness are changing firm’s environment to become more complicated. The competition is moving to supply chain’s level, and firms need to collaborate and innovate to survive. In the current economy, common efforts between organizations and developing new capacities mutually are the key resources in gaining collaborative advantage and enhancing supply chain performance. The purpose of this paper is to explore different practices of collaboration activities that exist in the pharmaceutical industry of Morocco. Also, to inquire how these practices affect supply chain performance. The exploration is based on interpretativism research paradigm. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews from supply chain practitioners. Qualitative data was analyzed via Iramuteq software to explore different themes of the study.The findings include descriptive analysis as a result of data processing using Iramuteq. It also encompasses the content analysis of the themes extracted from interviews.

Keywords: inter-firm relationships, collaboration, supply chain innovation, morocco

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Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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The research presents epsilon- hierarchical fuzzy twin support vector regression (epsilon-HFTSVR) based on epsilon-fuzzy twin support vector regression (epsilon-FTSVR) and epsilon-twin support vector regression (epsilon-TSVR). Epsilon-FTSVR is achieved by incorporating trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to epsilon-TSVR which takes care of uncertainty existing in forecasting problems. Epsilon-FTSVR determines a pair of epsilon-insensitive proximal functions by solving two related quadratic programming problems. The structural risk minimization principle is implemented by introducing regularization term in primal problems of epsilon-FTSVR. This yields dual stable positive definite problems which improves regression performance. Epsilon-FTSVR is then reformulated as epsilon-HFTSVR consisting of a set of hierarchical layers each containing epsilon-FTSVR. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets reveal that epsilon-HFTSVR has remarkable generalization performance with minimum training time.

Keywords: regression, epsilon-TSVR, epsilon-FTSVR, epsilon-HFTSVR

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Authors: Jincao Guo

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Aquaculture plays a significant role in the diet of people in many regions. However, problems such as bioaccumulation have risen with the rapidly growing industry due to a lack of control in the feeding process, which brings uncertainty to the quality of the products. The paper tackles the problem by introducing the symbiosis of the Giant Clam (Tridacna) with photosynthetic algae and Yeti Crab (Kiwaidae) with chemosynthetic bacteria in molecular and developmental details. By combing the knowledge gained from the two models and past studies, innovative ideas such as using mass selection methods to domesticate and farm those symbiotic species, as well as improvements for the current farming methods, such as introducing algae feeding, are discussed. Further studies are needed, but experiments are worth conducting since it increases the variety of choices for consumers and can potentially improve the quality and efficiency of aquaculture.

Keywords: the giant clam Tridacna, yeti crab Kiwaidae, autotroph microbes, microbial symbiosis, aquaculture, bivalves, crustaceans, mollusk, photosynthesis, chemosynthesis

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Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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Authors: Vaibhav Rana, Nicholas Balaresque

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The 3-cup anemometer is the most commonly used instrument for wind speed measurement and, consequently, for the wind resource assessment. Though the cup anemometer shows accurate measurement under quasi-static conditions, there is uncertainty in the measurement when subjected to field measurement. Sensitivity to the angle of attacks with respect to horizontal plane, dynamic response, and non-linear behavior in calibration due to friction. The presented work aimed to identify the sensitivity of anemometer to non-horizontal flow. The cup anemometer was investigated under low wind speed wind tunnel, first under the static flow direction changes and second under the dynamic direction changes, at a different angle of attacks, under the similar conditions of reference wind tunnel speeds. The cup anemometer response under both conditions was evaluated and compared. The results showed the anemometer under dynamic wind direction changes is highly sensitive compared to static conditions.

Keywords: wind energy, cup anemometer, directional sensitivity, dynamic behavior, wind tunnel

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Authors: Lai Ving Kam

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Many markets are maturing, consumer buying powers are weakening and customer preferences change rapidly. To survive, many adopt fast paced continuous cost reduction and competitive pricing to remain relevance. Marketers desire to push for more sales to increase revenues have intensified competitions at time cannibalize the product and market. The amazing technologies changes have created both hope and despair to the industries. The pressure to constantly reduce cost, on the one hand, create and market new products in cheaper prices and shorter life cycles, on the other has become a continuous endeavour. The twin trends appear irreconcilable. Can core strategic vision provides and adapts new directions in continuous cost reduction? This study investigates core strategic vision able to meet this need, for firms to survive and stay profitable. Under current uncertainty market, are firms falling back on their core strategic visions to take them out of the unfavourable positions?

Keywords: core strategy vision, continuous cost reduction, fashionable products industry, competitive pricing

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Authors: Maria Luisa Jaramillo, Alvaro Turriago Hoyos, Ulf Thoene

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Financial inclusion has become a crucially important factor in debates on economic inequality posing challenges to the financial systems of countries around the world. Nowadays, governments and banks are concerned about creating products that allow access to wide sectors of the population. The creation of banking products by the financial sector for people with low incomes tends to lead to improvements in the quality of life of vulnerable parts of the population. In countries with notable social and economic inequalities financial inclusion is a key aspect for equitable economic growth. This study is based on the case of Colombia, which is a country with a strong record of economic growth over the past decade. Nevertheless, corruption, unemployment, and poverty contribute to uncertainty regarding the country’s future growth prospects. This study wants to explain the situation of financial exclusion and financial inclusion with respect to the Colombian case. Financial inclusion is going to be studied from the perspective of social innovation.

Keywords: Colombia, financial exclusion, financial inclusion, social innovation

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Authors: Crystal Shackleford, Michael Pasek, Allon Vishkin, Jeremy Ginges

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In the Middle East, conflict is often viewed as religiously motivated. In this context, an important question is how we think the religion of the other drives their behavior. If people see conflicts as religious, they may expect the belief of the other to motivate intergroup bias. Beliefs about the motivations of the other impact how we engage with them. Conflict may result if actors believe the other’s religion promotes parochialism. To examine how actors on the ground in Israel-Palestine think about the God of the other as it relates to the other’s behavior towards them, we ran two studies in winter 2019 with an online sample of Jewish Israelis and fieldwork with Palestinians in the West Bank. We asked participants to predict the behavior of an outgroup member participating in an economic game task, dividing the money between themselves and another person, who is either an ingroup or outgroup member. Our experimental manipulation asks participants to predict the behavior of the other when the other is thinking of their God. Both Israelis and Palestinians believed outgroup members would show in-group favoritism, and that group members would give more to their in-group when thinking of their God. We also found that participants thought outgroup members would give more to their own ingroup when thinking of God. In other words, Palestinians predicted that Israelis would give more to fellow Israelis when thinking of God, but also more to Palestinians. Our results suggest that religious belief is seen to promote universal moral reasoning, even in a context with over 70 years of intense conflict. More broadly, this challenges the narrative that religion necessarily motivates intractable conflict.

Keywords: conflict, psychology, religion, meta-cognition, morality

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Authors: Shielilo R. Amihan, Ederliza De Jesus

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The study determined the predictors of college performance of 2nd Yr students of UPHSD-Calamba. This quantitative study conducted a survey using the Scholastic Abilities Test for Adults (SATA), and the retrieval of entrance examinations results and current General Weighted Average (GWA) of the 242 randomly selected respondents. The mean, Pearson r and multiple regression analyses through SPSS revealed that students are capable of verbal, non-verbal and quantitative reasoning, reading vocabulary, comprehension, math calculation, and writing mechanics but have difficulty in math application and writing composition. The study found out the Scholastic Ability and Achievement, except in mathematics, are significantly related to college performance. It concludes that students with high ability and achievement may perform better in college. However, only English subset results in the entrance exam predicts the academic success of students in college while SATA and Math entrance exam results do not. The study recommends providing pre-college Math and Writing courses as requisites in college. It also suggests implementing formative curriculum-based enhancement programs on specific priority areas, profiling programs towards informed individual academic decision-making, revising the Entrance Examinations, monitoring the development of the students, and exploring other predictors of college academic performance such as non-cognitive factors.

Keywords: scholastic ability, scholastic achievement, entrance exam, college performance

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Authors: Ernesto Pineda Leon, Dante Tolentino Lopez, Janis Zapata Lopez

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The current paper shows the application of the boundary element method for the analysis of plates under shear stress causing plasticity. In this case, the shear deformation of a plate is considered by means of the Reissner’s theory. The probability of failure of a Reissner’s plate due to a proposed index plastic behavior is calculated taken into account the uncertainty in mechanical and geometrical properties. The problem is developed in two dimensions. The classic plasticity’s theory is applied and a formulation for initial stresses that lead to the boundary integral equations due to plasticity is also used. For the plasticity calculation, the Von Misses criteria is used. To solve the non-linear equations an incremental method is employed. The results show a relatively small failure probability for the ranges of loads between 0.6 and 1.0. However, for values between 1.0 and 2.5, the probability of failure increases significantly. Consequently, for load bigger than 2.5 the plate failure is a safe event. The results are compared to those that were found in the literature and the agreement is good.

Keywords: boundary element method, failure, plasticity, probability

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Authors: Saba Rahimi, Ozan Oktay, Javier Alvarez-Valle, Sujeeth Bharadwaj

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Successful application of deep learning in medical image analysis necessitates unprecedented amounts of labeled training data. Unlike conventional 2D applications, radiological images can be three-dimensional (e.g., CT, MRI), consisting of many instances within each image. The problem is exacerbated when expert annotations are required for effective pixel-wise labeling, which incurs exorbitant labeling effort and cost. Active learning is an established research domain that aims to reduce labeling workload by prioritizing a subset of informative unlabeled examples to annotate. Our contribution is a cost-effective approach for U-Net 3D models that uses Monte Carlo sampling to analyze pixel-wise uncertainty. Experiments on the AAPM 2017 lung CT segmentation challenge dataset show that our proposed framework can achieve promising segmentation results by using only 42% of the training data.

Keywords: image segmentation, active learning, convolutional neural network, 3D U-Net

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Authors: Muhammad Sheraz, Vasile Preda, Silvia Dedu

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Concepts of econophysics are usually used to solve problems related to uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics. In the theory of option pricing the risk neutral probabilities play very important role. The application of entropy in finance can be regarded as the extension of both information entropy and the probability entropy. It can be an important tool in various financial methods such as measure of risk, portfolio selection, option pricing and asset pricing. Gulko applied Entropy Pricing Theory (EPT) for pricing stock options and introduced an alternative framework of Black-Scholes model for pricing European stock option. In this article, we present solutions to maximum entropy problems based on Tsallis, Weighted-Tsallis, Kaniadakis, Weighted-Kaniadakies entropies, to obtain risk-neutral densities. We have also obtained the value of European call and put in this framework.

Keywords: option pricing, Black-Scholes model, Tsallis entropy, Kaniadakis entropy, weighted entropy, risk-neutral density

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Authors: Anett Nagy, Anna Maria Beke, Rozsa Graf, Magda Kalmar

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Premature birth involves developmental risks – the earlier the baby is born and the lower its birth weight, the higher the risks. The developmental outcomes for immature, low birth weight infants are hard to predict. Our aim is to identify the factors influencing infant and preschool-age development in very low birth weight (VLBW) and extremely low birth weight (ELBW) preterms. Sixty-one subjects participated in our longitudinal study, which consisted of thirty VLBW and thirty-one ELBW children. The psychomotor development of the infants was assessed using the Brunet-Lezine Developmental Scale at the corrected ages of one and two years; then at three years of age, they were tested with the WPPSI-IV IQ test. Birth weight, gestational age, perinatal complications, gender, and maternal education, were added to the data analysis as independent variables. According to our assessments, our subjects as a group scored in the average range in each subscale of the Brunet-Lezine Developmental Scale. The scores were the lowest in language at both measurement points. The children’s performances improved between one and two years of age, particularly in the domain of coordination. At three years of age the mean IQ test results, although still in the average range, were near the low end of it in each index. The ELBW preterms performed significantly poorer in Perceptual Reasoning Index. The developmental level at two years better predicted the IQ than that at one year. None of the measures distinguished the genders.

Keywords: preterm, extremely low birth-weight, perinatal complication, psychomotor development, intelligence, follow-up

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Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: I. Teotónio, C.O. Cruz, C.M. Silva, M. Manso

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Diverse stakeholders show different concerns when choosing green roof systems. Also, green roof solutions vary in their cost and performance. Therefore, decision-makers continually face the difficult task of balancing benefits against green roofs costs. Decision analysis methods, as multicriteria analysis, can be used when the decision‑making process includes different perspectives, multiple objectives, and uncertainty. The present study adopts a multicriteria decision model to evaluate the installation of green roofs in buildings, determining the solution with the best trade-off between costs and benefits in agreement with the preferences of the users/investors. This methodology was applied to a real decision problem, assessing the preferences between different green roof systems in an existing building in Lisbon. This approach supports the decision-making process on green roofs and enables robust and informed decisions on urban planning while optimizing buildings retrofitting.

Keywords: decision making, green roofs, investors preferences, multicriteria analysis, sustainable development

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Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

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The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

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Authors: Yulia V. Krasavtseva, Tatiana V. Kornilova

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Risk-taking behaviors are not only dictated by cognitive components but also involve emotional aspects. Anticipatory emotions, involving both cognitive and affective mechanisms, are involved in decision-making in general, and risk-taking in particular. Affective reactions are prompted when an expectation or prediction is either validated or invalidated in the achieved result. This study aimed to combine predictions, anticipatory emotions, affective reactions, and personality traits in the context of risk-taking behaviors. An experimental online method Emotion and Prediction In a Casino (EPIC) was used, based on a casino-like roulette game. In a series of choices, the participant is presented with progressively riskier roulette combinations, where the potential sums of wins and losses increase with each choice and the participant is given a choice: to 'walk away' with the current sum of money or to 'play' the displayed roulette, thus accepting the implicit risk. Before and after the result is displayed, participants also rate their emotions, using the Self-Assessment Mannequin [Bradley, Lang, 1994], picking a picture, representing the intensity of pleasure, arousal, and dominance. The following personality measures were used: 1) Personal Decision-Making Factors [Kornilova, 2003] assessing risk and rationality; 2) I7 – Impulsivity Questionnaire [Kornilova, 1995] assessing impulsiveness, risk readiness, and empathy and 3) Subjective Risk Intelligence Scale [Craparo et al., 2018] assessing negative attitude toward uncertainty, emotional stress vulnerability, imaginative capability, and problem-solving self-efficacy. Two groups of participants took part in the study: 1) 98 university students (Mage=19.71, SD=3.25; 72% female) and 2) 94 online participants (Mage=28.25, SD=8.25; 89% female). Online participants were recruited via social media. Students with high rationality rated their pleasure and dominance before and after choices as lower (ρ from -2.6 to -2.7, p < 0.05). Those with high levels of impulsivity rated their arousal lower before finding out their result (ρ from 2.5 - 3.7, p < 0.05), while also rating their dominance as low (ρ from -3 to -3.7, p < 0.05). Students prone to risk-rated their pleasure and arousal before and after higher (ρ from 2.5 - 3.6, p < 0.05). High empathy was positively correlated with arousal after learning the result. High emotional stress vulnerability positively correlates with arousal and pleasure after the choice (ρ from 3.9 - 5.7, p < 0.05). Negative attitude to uncertainty is correlated with high anticipatory and reactive arousal (ρ from 2.7 - 5.7, p < 0.05). High imaginative capability correlates negatively with anticipatory and reactive dominance (ρ from - 3.4 to - 4.3, p < 0.05). Pleasure (.492), arousal (.590), and dominance (.551) before and after the result were positively correlated. Higher predictions positively correlated with reactive pleasure and arousal. In a riskier scenario (6/8 chances to win), anticipatory arousal was negatively correlated with the pleasure emotion (-.326) and vice versa (-.265). Correlations occur regardless of the roulette outcome. In conclusion, risk-taking behaviors are linked not only to personality traits but also to anticipatory emotions and affect in a modeled casino setting. Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 19-29-07069.

Keywords: anticipatory emotions, casino game, risk taking, impulsiveness

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Authors: Benjamin Leiby, Darryl Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. The individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) How does group interaction shape BMI decision-making from managers’ perspective? ii) What are the potential interrelations among managers’ risk-willingness, group biases, and BMI decision-making? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, cognitive biases, group-interaction effects, strategic decision-making, risk-willingness

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Authors: Pei-Shan Liang

Abstract:

Objective: This article explores the nursing experience of caring for a patient with terminal gastric cancer complicated by an abdominal aortic aneurysm. The patient experienced physical discomfort due to the disease, initially unable to accept the situation, leading to anxiety, and eventually accepting the need for surgery. Methods: The nursing period was from June 6 to June 10, 2024. Through observation, direct care, conversations, and physical assessments, and using Gordon's eleven functional health patterns for a one-on-one holistic assessment, interdisciplinary team meetings were held with the critical care team and family. Three nursing health issues were identified: pain related to the disease and invasive procedures, anxiety related to uncertainty about disease recovery, and decreased cardiac tissue perfusion related to hemodynamic instability. Results: Open communication techniques and empathetic care were employed to establish a trusting nurse-patient relationship, and patient-centered nursing interventions were developed. Pain was assessed using a 10-point pain scale, and pain medications were adjusted by a pharmacist. Initially, Fentanyl 500mcg with pump run at 1ml/hr was administered, later changed to Ultracet 37.5mg/325mg, 1 tablet every 6 hours orally, reducing the pain score to 3. Lavender aromatherapy and listening to crystal music were used as distractions to alleviate pain, allowing the patient to sleep uninterrupted for at least 7 hours. The patient was encouraged to express feelings and fears through LINE messages or drawings, and a psychologist was invited to provide support. Family members were present at least twice a day for over an hour each time, reducing psychological distress and uncertainty about the prognosis. According to the Beck Anxiety Inventory, the anxiety score dropped from 17 (moderate anxiety) to 6 (no anxiety). Focused nursing care was implemented with close monitoring of vital signs maintaining systolic blood pressure between 112-118 mmHg to ensure adequate myocardial perfusion. The patient was encouraged to get out of bed for postoperative rehabilitation and to strengthen cardiopulmonary function. A chest X-ray showed no abnormalities, and breathing was smooth with Triflow use, maintaining at least 5 seconds with 2 balls four times a day, and SpO2 >96%. Conclusion: The care process highlighted the importance of addressing psychological care in addition to maintaining life when the patient’s condition changes. The presence of family often provided the greatest source of comfort for the patient, helping to reduce anxiety and pain. Nurses must play multiple roles, including advocate, coordinator, educator, and consultant, using various communication techniques and fostering hope by listening to and accepting the patient’s emotional responses. It is hoped that this report will provide a reference for clinical nursing staff and contribute to improving the quality of care.

Keywords: intensive care, gastric cancer, aortic aneurysm, quality of care

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Authors: V. Tabrizi, A. Vali, R. GHasemi, V. Behnamgol

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In this article, a nonlinear model of an under actuated six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) quadrotor UAV is derived on the basis of the Newton-Euler formula. The derivation comprises determining equations of the motion of the quadrotor in three dimensions and approximating the actuation forces through the modeling of aerodynamic coefficients and electric motor dynamics. The robust nonlinear control strategy includes a smooth second order non-singular terminal sliding mode control which is applied to stabilizing this model. The control method is on the basis of super twisting algorithm for removing the chattering and producing smooth control signal. Also, nonsingular terminal sliding mode idea is used for introducing a nonlinear sliding variable that guarantees the finite time convergence in sliding phase. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is robust against uncertainty or disturbance and guarantees a fast and precise control signal.

Keywords: quadrotor UAV, nonsingular terminal sliding mode, second order sliding mode t, electronics, control, signal processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: G.Venkatachalam, Gautham Shankar, Dasarath Raghav, Krishna Kuar, Santhosh Kiran, Bhargav Mahesh

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Uncertainty in the availability of fossil fuels in the future and global warming increased the need for more environment-friendly materials. In this work, an attempt is made to fabricate a hybrid polymer matrix composite. The blend is a mixture of General Purpose Resin and Cashew Nut Shell Liquid, a natural resin extracted from cashew plant. Palm fiber, which has high strength, is used as a reinforcement material. The fiber is treated with alkali (NaOH) solution to increase its strength and adhesiveness. Parametric study of flexure strength is carried out by varying alkali concentration, duration of alkali treatment and fiber volume. Taguchi L9 Orthogonal array is followed in the design of experiments procedure for simplification. With the help of ANOVA technique, regression equations are obtained which gives the level of influence of each parameter on the flexure strength of the composite.

Keywords: Adhesion, CNSL, Flexural Analysis, Hybrid Matrix Composite, Palm Fiber

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Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono

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Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Kevin William Taylor

Abstract:

This work used industry-standard practices and technologies as a foundation to explore current and future advancements in modularity for 3D environmental production. Covering environmental generation, and AI-assisted generation, this study investigated how these areas will shape the industries goal to achieve full immersion within augmented reality environments. This study will explore modular environmental construction techniques utilized in large scale 3D productions. This will include the reasoning behind this approach to production, the principles in the successful development, potential pitfalls, and different methodologies for successful implementation of practice in commercial and proprietary interactive engines. A focus will be on the role of the 3D artists in the future of environmental development, requiring adaptability to new approaches, as the field evolves in response to tandem technological advancements. Industry findings and projections theorize how these factors will impact the widespread utilization of augmented reality in daily life. This will continue to inform the direction of technology towards expansive interactive environments. It will change the tools and techniques utilized in the development of environments for game, film, and VFX. This study concludes that this technology will be the cornerstone for the creation of AI-driven AR that is able to fully theme our world, change how we see and engage with one another. This will impact the concept of a virtual self-identity that will be as prevalent as real-world identity. While this progression scares or even threaten some, it is safe to say that we are seeing the beginnings of a technological revolution that will surpass the impact that the smartphone had on modern society.

Keywords: virtual reality, augmented reality, training, 3D environments

Procedia PDF Downloads 121