Search results for: random forest

Authors: Jian Yang, Atsushi Yagi

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Tree-grass coexistence system is of great importance for forest ecology. Mathematical models are being proposed to study the dynamics of tree-grass coexistence and the stability of the systems. However, few of the models concentrates on spatial dynamics of the tree-grass coexistence. In this study, we modified an age-structured continuous-space population model for forests, obtaining an age-structured continuous-space population model for the tree-grass competition model. In the model, for thermal competitions, adult trees can out-compete grass, and grass can out-compete seedlings. We mathematically studied the model to make sure tree-grass coexistence solutions exist. Numerical experiments demonstrated that a fraction of area that trees or grass occupies can affect whether the coexistence is stable or not. We also tried regulating the mortality of adult trees with other parameters and the fraction of area trees and grass occupies were fixed; results show that the mortality of adult trees is also a factor affecting the stability of the tree-grass coexistence in this model.

Keywords: population-structured models, stabilities of ecosystems, thermal competitions, tree-grass coexistence systems

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Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Abdullah Hulusi Kokcam, Fuat Simsir, Özer Uygun

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Traditionally, three important manufacturing functions which are process planning, scheduling and due-date assignment are performed sequentially and separately. Although there are numerous works on the integration of process planning and scheduling and plenty of works focusing on scheduling with due date assignment, there are only a few works on integrated process planning, scheduling and due-date assignment. Although due-dates are determined without taking into account of weights of the customers in the literature, here weighted due-date assignment is employed to get better performance. Jobs are scheduled according to weighted earliest due date dispatching rule and due dates are determined according to some popular due date assignment methods by taking into account of the weights of each job. Simulated Annealing, Evolutionary Strategies, Random Search, hybrid of Random Search and Simulated Annealing, and hybrid of Random Search and Evolutionary Strategies, are applied as solution techniques. Three important manufacturing functions are integrated step-by-step and higher integration levels are found better. Search meta-heuristics are found to be very useful while improving performance measure.

Keywords: process planning, weighted scheduling, weighted due-date assignment, simulated annealing, evolutionary strategies, hybrid searches

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Authors: Li Zhou, Yanmei Fang

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With current technology, images and videos can be obtained more easily than ever. It is so easy to manipulate these digital multimedia information when obtained, and that the content or source of the image and video could be easily tampered. In this paper, we propose to identify the image and video frame by the texture-based approach, e.g. Markov Transition Probability (MTP), which is in space domain, DCT domain and DWT domain, respectively. In the experiment, image and video frame database is constructed, and is used to train and test the classifier Support Vector Machine (SVM). Experiment results show that the texture-based approach has good performance. In order to verify the experiment result, and testify the universality and robustness of algorithm, we build a random testing dataset, the random testing result is in keeping with above experiment.

Keywords: multimedia forensics, video frame, LBP, MTP, SVM

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Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam

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Stratified double median ranked set sampling (SDMRSS) method is suggested for estimating the population mean. The SDMRSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified simple random sampling (SSRS), and stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS). It is shown that SDMRSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than SRS, SSRS, and SRSS. Also, by SDMRSS, we can increase the efficiency of mean estimator for specific value of the sample size. SDMRSS is applied on real life examples, and the results of the example agreed the theoretical results.

Keywords: efficiency, double ranked set sampling, median ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling, stratified

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Mario Isaza-Ruget, Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia, Nancy Yomayusa, Camilo A. González, Andres Cely, Jossie Murcia

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Quantification of risks associated with complications development from chronic kidney disease (CKD) through accurate survival models can help with patient management. A retrospective cohort that included patients diagnosed with CKD from a primary care program and followed up between 2013 and 2018 was carried out. Time-dependent and static covariates associated with demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors were included. Deep Learning (DL) survival analyzes were developed for three CKD outcomes: CKD stage progression, >25% decrease in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), and Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT). Models were evaluated and compared with Random Survival Forest (RSF) based on concordance index (C-index) metric. 2.143 patients were included. Two models were developed for each outcome, Deep Neural Network (DNN) model reported C-index=0.9867 for CKD stage progression; C-index=0.9905 for reduction in eGFR; C-index=0.9867 for RRT. Regarding the RSF model, C-index=0.6650 was reached for CKD stage progression; decreased eGFR C-index=0.6759; RRT C-index=0.8926. DNN models applied in survival analysis context with considerations of longitudinal covariates at the start of follow-up can predict renal stage progression, a significant decrease in eGFR and RRT. The success of these survival models lies in the appropriate definition of survival times and the analysis of covariates, especially those that vary over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chronic kidney disease, deep neural networks, survival analysis

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Authors: M. Alkhalidi, S. Neelamani, Z. Al-Zaqah

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This paper investigates the interaction of single and twin offshore rubble mound breakwaters with regular and random water waves through physical modeling to assess their reflection, transmission and energy dissipation characteristics. Various combinations of wave heights and wave periods were utilized in a series of experiments, along with three different water depths. The single and twin permeable breakwater models were both constructed with one layer of rubbles. Both models had the same total volume; however, the single breakwater was of trapezoidal type while the twin breakwaters were of triangular type. Physical modeling experiments were carried out in the wave flume of the coastal engineering laboratory of Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR). Measurements of the six wave probes which were fixed in the two-dimensional wave flume were collected and used to determine the generated incident wave heights, as well as the reflected and transmitted wave heights resulting from the wave-breakwater interaction. The possible factors affecting the wave attenuation efficiency of the breakwater models are the relative water depth (d/L), wave steepness (H/L), relative wave height ((h-d)/Hi), relative height of the breakwater (h/d), and relative clear spacing between the twin breakwaters (S/h). The results indicated that the single and double breakwaters show different responds to the change in their relative height as well as the relative wave height which demonstrates that the effect of the relative water depth on wave reflection, transmission, and energy dissipation is highly influenced by the change in the relative breakwater height, the relative wave height and the relative breakwater spacing. In general, within the range of the relative water depth tested in this study, and under both regular and random waves, it is found that the single breakwater allows for lower wave transmission and shows higher energy dissipation effect than both of the tested twin breakwaters, and hence has the best overall performance.

Keywords: random waves, regular waves, relative water depth, relative wave height, single breakwater, twin breakwater, wave steepness

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Authors: Tetyana Baydyk, Ernst Kussul, Sandra Bonilla Meza

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There are many articles that attempt to establish the role of different facial fragments in face recognition. Various approaches are used to estimate this role. Frequently, authors calculate the entropy corresponding to the fragment. This approach can only give approximate estimation. In this paper, we propose to use a more direct measure of the importance of different fragments for face recognition. We propose to select a recognition method and a face database and experimentally investigate the recognition rate using different fragments of faces. We present two such experiments in the paper. We selected the PCNC neural classifier as a method for face recognition and parts of the LFW (Labeled Faces in the Wild) face database as training and testing sets. The recognition rate of the best experiment is comparable with the recognition rate obtained using the whole face.

Keywords: face recognition, labeled faces in the wild (LFW) database, random local descriptor (RLD), random features

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Authors: Shahram Jamali, Samira Hamed

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One of the open issues in Random Early Detection (RED) algorithm is how to set its parameters to reach high performance for the dynamic conditions of the network. Although original RED uses fixed values for its parameters, this paper follows a model-based approach to upgrade performance of the RED algorithm. It models the routers queue behavior by using the Markov model and uses this model to predict future conditions of the queue. This prediction helps the proposed algorithm to make some tunings over RED's parameters and provide efficiency and better performance. Widespread packet level simulations confirm that the proposed algorithm, called Markov-RED, outperforms RED and FARED in terms of queue stability, bottleneck utilization and dropped packets count.

Keywords: active queue management, RED, Markov model, random early detection algorithm

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Authors: Carolina Morales, Ricardo Castro-Huerta, Enrique A. Mundaca

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The edaphic fauna is the main factor involved in the transformation of nutrients and soil decomposition processes. Edaphic organisms are highly sensitive to soil disturbances, which normally causes changes in the composition and abundance of such organisms. Fire is known to be a disturbing factor since it affects the physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil and the whole ecosystem. During the summer (December-March) of 2017, Chile suffered the major fire events recorded in its modern history, which affected a vast area and a number of ecosystem types. The objective of this study was first to use remote sensing satellite images and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to assess and identify levels of fire severity in disturbed areas and to compare the responses of the soil mesofauna diversity among such areas. We identified four areas (treatments) with an ascending level of severity, namely: mild, medium, high severity, and free of fire. A non-affected patch of forest was established as a control. Three samples from each treatment were collected in the form of a soil cube (10x10x10 cm). Edaphic mesofauna was obtained from each sample through the Berlese-Tullgren funnel method. Collected specimens were quantified and identified, using the RTU (Recognisable Taxonomic Unit) criterion. Diversity was analysed using inferential statistics to compare Simpson and Shannon-Wiener indexes across treatments. As predicted, the unburned forest patch (control) exhibited higher diversity values than the treatments. Significantly higher diversity values were recorded in those treatments subjected to lower fire severity. We conclude that remote sensing zoning is an adequate tool to identify different levels of fire severity and that an edaphic mesofauna is a group of organisms that qualify as good bioindicators for monitoring soil recovery after fire events.

Keywords: bioindicator, Chile, fire severity level, soil

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Authors: Darius Singh

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This study adopts a research, develop, and deploy methodology to create a state-of-the-art forest preschool environment using technology and the Gaia (Earth) Education Philosophy as design support. The new philosophy adopts an ancient Greek terminology, “Gaia,” meaning “Mother Earth”, and it take its principle to model everything with the oldest living and breathing entity that it know – Earth. This includes using nature and biomimicry-based principles in building design, environments, curricula, teaching, learning, values and outcomes for children. The study highlights the potential effectiveness of the Gaia (Earth) Education Philosophy as a means of designing Earth-inspired environments for children’s learning. The discuss the strengths of biomimicry-based design principles and propose a curriculum that emphasizes natural outcomes for early childhood learning. Theoretical implications of the study are that the Gaia (Earth) Education Philosophy could serve as a strong foundation for educating young learners.it present a unique approach that promotes connections with Earth-principles and lessons that can contribute to the development of social and environmental consciousness among children and help educate generations to come into a stable and balanced future.

Keywords: earth science, nature education, sustainability, gaia, forest school, nature, inspirational teaching and learning

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Authors: Harish Krishnamurthy, Anna Lafontant, Ren Yi

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Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.

Keywords: time-series clustering, feature extraction, hoax prediction, geospatial events

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Authors: Yazan Al-Kofahi, Jamal Alqawasmi.

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In this study, a comprehensive literature review (SLR) was conducted, with the main goal of assessing the existing literature about how artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) models are used in sustainable architecture applications and issues including thermal comfort satisfaction, energy efficiency, cost prediction and many others issues. For this reason, the search strategy was initiated by using different databases, including Scopus, Springer and Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria were used by two research strings related to DL, ML and sustainable architecture. Moreover, the timeframe for the inclusion of the papers was open, even though most of the papers were conducted in the previous four years. As a paper filtration strategy, conferences and books were excluded from database search results. Using these inclusion and exclusion criteria, the search was conducted, and a sample of 59 papers was selected as the final included papers in the analysis. The data extraction phase was basically to extract the needed data from these papers, which were analyzed and correlated. The results of this SLR showed that there are many applications of ML and DL in Sustainable buildings, and that this topic is currently trendy. It was found that most of the papers focused their discussions on addressing Environmental Sustainability issues and factors using machine learning predictive models, with a particular emphasis on the use of Decision Tree algorithms. Moreover, it was found that the Random Forest repressor demonstrates strong performance across all feature selection groups in terms of cost prediction of the building as a machine-learning predictive model.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, artificial intelligence, sustainable building

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Authors: Shagufta Tazin Shathy, Mohammad Imam Hasan Reza

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Fragmentation due to urbanization and agricultural expansion has become the main reason for destruction of forest area and loss of biodiversity particularly in the developing world. At present, the world is experiencing the largest wave of urban growth in human history, and it is estimated that this influx will be mainly taking place in developing world. Therefore, study on urban fragmentation is vital for a sustainable urban development. Landscape fragmentation is one of the most important conservation issues in the last few decades. Habitat fragmentation due to landscape alteration has caused habitat isolation, destruction in ecosystem pattern and processes. Thus, this research analyses the spatial and temporal extent of urban fragmentation using landscape indices in the Kuala Lumpur (KL) – the capital and most populous city in Malaysia. The objective of this study is to examine the urban fragmentation index in KL city. Fragmentation metrics used in the study are: a) Urban landscape ratio (the ratio of urban landscape area and build up area), b) Infill (development that occurred within urbanized open space), and c) Extension (development of exterior open space). After analyzing all three metrics, these are calculated for the combined urban fragmentation index (UFI). In this combined index, all three metrics are given an equal weight. Land cover/ land use maps of the year 1996 and 2005 have been developed from the Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite image. The year 1996 is taken as a reference year to analyze the changes. The UFI calculated for the year of 1996 and2005 found that the KL city has undergone rapid landscape changes destructing forest ecosystem adversely. Increasing UFI for the year of 1996 compared to 2005 indicates that the developmental activities have been occupying open spaces and fragmenting natural lands and forest. This index can be implemented in other unplanned and rapidly urbanizing Asian cities for example Dhaka and Delhi to calculate the urban fragmentation rate. The findings from the study will help the stakeholders and urban planners for a sustainable urban management planning in this region.

Keywords: GIS, index, sustainable urban management, urbanization

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

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Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.

Keywords: concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation

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Authors: A. A. Hussen, I. N. Jleta

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Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers and gyroscopes are suitable for the inertial navigation system (INS) of many applications due to the low price, small dimensions and light weight. The main disadvantage in a comparison with classic sensors is a worse long term stability. The estimation accuracy is mostly affected by the time-dependent growth of inertial sensor errors, especially the stochastic errors. In order to eliminate negative effect of these random errors, they must be accurately modeled. Where the key is the successful implementation that depends on how well the noise statistics of the inertial sensors is selected. In this paper, the Allan variance technique will be used in modeling the stochastic errors of the inertial sensors. By performing a simple operation on the entire length of data, a characteristic curve is obtained whose inspection provides a systematic characterization of various random errors contained in the inertial-sensor output data.

Keywords: Allan variance, accelerometer, gyroscope, stochastic errors

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Authors: Yoshinori Wakatake

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Many defects after the release of software packages are caused due to omissions of sufficient test items in test specifications. Poor test specifications are detected by manual review, which imposes a high human load. The prevention of omissions depends on the end-user awareness of test specification writers. If test specifications were written while envisioning the behavior of end-users, the number of omissions in test items would be greatly reduced. The paper pays attention to the point that writers who can achieve it differ from those who cannot in not only the description richness but also their gaze information. It proposes a method to estimate the degree of user-awareness of writers through the analysis of their gaze information when writing test specifications. We conduct an experiment to obtain the gaze information of a writer of the test specifications. Test specifications are automatically classified using gaze information. In this method, a Random Forest model is constructed for the classification. The classification is highly accurate. By looking at the explanatory variables which turn out to be important variables, we know behavioral features to distinguish test specifications of high quality from others. It is confirmed they are pupil diameter size and the number and the duration of blinks. The paper also investigates test specifications automatically classified with gaze information to discuss features in their writing ways in each quality level. The proposed method enables us to automatically classify test specifications. It also prevents test item omissions, because it reveals writing features that test specifications of high quality should satisfy.

Keywords: blink, eye tracking, gaze information, pupil diameter, quality improvement, specification document, user-awareness

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Authors: John Narh

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There is high rate of deforestation in Ghana due to agricultural expansion, illegal mining and illegal logging. While it is attempting to address the illegalities, Ghana has also initiated a reforestation program known as the Modified Taungya System (MTS). Within the MTS framework, farmers are allocated degraded forestland and provided with tree seedlings to practice agroforestry until the trees form canopy. Yet, the political, ecological and economic models that inform the selection of tree species, the motivations of participating farmers as well as the factors that accounts for differential access to the land and performance of farmers engaged in the program lie underexplored. Using a sequential explanatory mixed methods approach in five forest-fringe communities in the Eastern Region of Ghana, the study reveals that economic factors and Ghana’s commitment to international conventions on the environment underpin the selection of tree species for the MTS program. Social network and access to remittances play critical roles in having access to, and enhances poor farmers’ chances in the program respectively. Farmers are more motivated by the access to degraded forestland to cultivate food crops than having a share in the trees that they plant. As such, in communities where participating farmers are not informed about their benefit in the tree that they plant, the program is largely unsuccessful.

Keywords: translocality, deforestation, forest management, social network

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Authors: Yingisani Chabalala, Elhadi Adam, Khalid Adem Ali

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Mapping smallholder fruit plantations using optical data is challenging due to morphological landscape heterogeneity and crop types having overlapped spectral signatures. Furthermore, cloud covers limit the use of optical sensing, especially in subtropical climates where they are persistent. This research assessed the effectiveness of Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) data for mapping fruit trees and co-existing land-use types by using support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) classifiers independently. These classifiers were also applied to fused data from the two sensors. Feature ranks were extracted using the RF mean decrease accuracy (MDA) and forward variable selection (FVS) to identify optimal spectral windows to classify fruit trees. Based on RF MDA and FVS, the SVM classifier resulted in relatively high classification accuracy with overall accuracy (OA) = 0.91.6% and kappa coefficient = 0.91% when applied to the fused satellite data. Application of SVM to S1, S2, S2 selected variables and S1S2 fusion independently produced OA = 27.64, Kappa coefficient = 0.13%; OA= 87%, Kappa coefficient = 86.89%; OA = 69.33, Kappa coefficient = 69. %; OA = 87.01%, Kappa coefficient = 87%, respectively. Results also indicated that the optimal spectral bands for fruit tree mapping are green (B3) and SWIR_2 (B10) for S2, whereas for S1, the vertical-horizontal (VH) polarization band. Including the textural metrics from the VV channel improved crop discrimination and co-existing land use cover types. The fusion approach proved robust and well-suited for accurate smallholder fruit plantation mapping.

Keywords: smallholder agriculture, fruit trees, data fusion, precision agriculture

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Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

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Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Vaibhav Verdhan, Bayong Kim

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Graduation rates at six-year colleges are becoming a more essential indicator for incoming fresh students and for university rankings. Predicting student graduation is extremely beneficial to schools and has a huge potential for targeted intervention. It is important for educational institutions since it enables the development of strategic plans that will assist or improve students' performance in achieving their degrees on time (GOT). A first step and a helping hand in extracting useful information from these data and gaining insights into the prediction of students' progress and performance is offered by machine learning techniques. Data analysis and visualization techniques are applied to understand and interpret the data. The data used for the analysis contains students who have graduated in 6 years in the academic year 2017-2018 for science majors. This analysis can be used to predict the graduation of students in the next academic year. Different Predictive modelings such as logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and KNeighborsClassifier are applied to predict whether a student will graduate. These classifiers were evaluated with k folds of 5. The performance of these classifiers was compared based on accuracy measurement. The results indicated that Ensemble Classifier achieves better accuracy, about 91.12%. This GOT prediction model would hopefully be useful to university administration and academics in developing measures for assisting and boosting students' academic performance and ensuring they graduate on time.

Keywords: prediction, decision trees, machine learning, support vector machine, ensemble model, student graduation, GOT graduate on time

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Authors: Wenjie Qin, Kewei Lv

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In 1996, Boneh and Venkatesan proposed the Hidden Number Problem (HNP) and proved the most significant bits (MSB) of computational Diffie-Hellman key exchange scheme and related schemes are unpredictable bits. They also gave a method which is a lattice rounding technique to solve HNP in non-uniform model. In this paper, we put forward a new concept that is Schnorr-MSB-HNP. We also reduce the problem of solving Schnorr signature private key with a few consecutive most significant bits of random nonce (used at each signature generation) to Schnorr-MSB-HNP, then we use the rounding technique to solve the Schnorr-MSB-HNP. We have come to the conclusion that if there is a ‘miraculous box’ which inputs the random nonce and outputs 2loglogq (q is a prime number) most significant bits of nonce, the signature private key will be obtained by choosing 2logq signature messages randomly. Thus we get an attack on the Schnorr signature private key.

Keywords: rounding technique, most significant bits, Schnorr signature algorithm, nonce, Schnorr-MSB-HNP

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Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

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A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Wenting Zhang, Shishi Liu, Peihong Fu

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As an indicator of air quality and directly related to concentration of ground PM2.5, the spatial-temporal variation and impact factor analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been a hot spot in air pollution. This paper concerns the non-stationarity and the autocorrelation (with Moran’s I index of 0.75) of the AOD in Wuhan agglomeration (WHA), in central China, uses the geographically weighted regression (GRW) to identify the spatial relationship of AOD and its impact factors. The 3 km AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) is used in this study. Beyond the economic-social factor, land use density factors, vegetable cover, and elevation, the landscape metric is also considered as one factor. The results suggest that the GWR model is capable of dealing with spatial varying relationship, with R square, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and standard residual better than that of ordinary least square (OLS) model. The results of GWR suggest that the urban developing, forest, landscape metric, and elevation are the major driving factors of AOD. Generally, the higher AOD trends to located in the place with higher urban developing, less forest, and flat area.

Keywords: aerosol optical depth, geographically weighted regression, land use change, Wuhan agglomeration

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Authors: M. Golam Rabbi

Abstract:

Theme of wildlife crime is unique in Bangladesh. In earlier of 2010, wildlife crime was not designated as a crime, unlike other offenses. Forest Department and other enforcement agencies were not in full swing to find out the organized crime scene at that time and recorded few cases along with forest crime. However, after the establishment of Wildlife Crime Control Unitin 2012a, total of 374 offenses have been detected with 566 offenders and 37,039 wildlife and trophies were seized till November 2016. Most offenses seem to be committed outside the forests where the presence of the forest staff is minimal. Total detection percentage of offenses is not known, but offenders are not identified in 60% of detected cases (UDOR). Only 20% cases are decided by the courts even after eight years, conviction rate of the total disposal is 70.65%. Mostly six months imprisonment and BDT 5000 fine seems to be the modal penalty. The monetary value of wildlife crime in the country is approximate $0.72M per year and the maximum value counted for reptiles around $0.45M especially for high-level trafficking of geckos and turtles. The most common seizures of wildlife are birds (mynas, munias, parakeets, lorikeets, water birds, etc.) which have domestic demand for pet. Some other wildlife like turtles, lizards and small mammals are also on the list. Venison and migratory waterbirds often seized which has a large quantity demand for consuming at aristocratic level.Due to porous border and weak enforcement in border region poachers use the way for trafficking of geckos, turtles, and tortoises, snakes, venom, tiger and body parts, spotted deerskin, pangolinetc. Those have very high demand in East Asian countries for so-called medicinal purposes. The recent survey also demonstrates new route for illegal trade and trafficking for instance, after poaching of tiger and deer from the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove track of the planet to Thailand through the Bay of Bengal, sharks fins and ray fish through Chittagong seaport and directly by sea routes to Myanmar and Thailand. However, a good number of records of offense demonstrate the transition route from India to South and South East Asian countries. Star tortoises and Hamilton’s turtles are smuggled in from India which mostly seized at Benapole border of Jessore and Hazrat Shah Jajal International Airport of Dhaka, in very large numbers for transmission to East Asian countries. Most of the cases of wildlife trade routes leading to China, Thailand, Malaysia, and Myanmar. Most surprisingly African ivory was seized in Bangladesh recently, which was meant to be trafficked to the South-East Asia. However; forest department is working to fight against wildlife poaching, illegal trade and trafficking in collaboration with other law enforcement agencies. The department needs a clear mandate and to build technical capabilities for identifying, seizing and holding specimens. The department also needs to step out of the forests and must develop the capacity to surveillance and patrol all sensitive locations across the country.

Keywords: Bangladesh forest department, Sundarban, tiger, wildlife crime, wildlife trafficking

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Authors: Roven Tumaneng, Angelica Kristina Monzon, Ralph Sedricke Lapuz, Jose Don De Alban, Jennica Paula Masigan, Joanne Rae Pales, Laila Monera Pornel, Dennis Tablazon, Rizza Karen Veridiano, Jackie Lou Wenceslao, Edmund Leo Rico, Neil Aldrin Mallari

Abstract:

Most protected area management plans in the Philippines, particularly the smaller and more remote islands suffer from insufficient baseline data, which should provide the bases for formulating measureable conservation targets and appropriate management interventions for these protected areas. Attempts to synthesize available data particularly on cultural and socio-economic characteristic of local peoples within and outside protected areas also suffer from the lack of comprehensive and detailed inventories, which should be considered in designing adaptive management interventions to be used for those protected areas. Mt Guiting-guiting Natural Park (MGGNP) located in Sibuyan Island is one of the poorly studied protected areas in the Philippines. In this study, we determined the highly biologically important areas of the protected area using Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt) from environmental predictors (i.e., topographic, bioclimatic,land cover, and soil image layers) derived from global remotely sensed data and point occurrence data of species of birds and trees recorded during field surveys on the island. A total of 23 trigger species of birds and trees was modeled and stacked to generate species richness maps for biological high conservation value areas (HCVAs). Forest habitat change was delineated using dual-polarised L-band ALOS-PALSAR mosaic data at 25 meter spatial resolution, taken at two acquisition years 2007 and 2009 to provide information on forest cover ad habitat change in the island between year 2007 and 2009. Determining the livelihood guilds were also conducted using the data gathered from171 household interviews, from which demographic and livelihood variables were extracted (i.e., age, gender, number of household members, educational attainment, years of residency, distance from forest edge, main occupation, alternative sources of food and resources during scarcity months, and sources of these alternative resources).Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Kruskal-Wallis test, the diversity and patterns of forest resource use by people in the island were determined with particular focus on the economic activities that directly and indirectly affect the population of key species as well as to identify levels of forest resource use by people in different areas of the park.Results showed that there are gaps in the area occupied by the natural park, as evidenced by the mismatch of the proposed HCVAs and the existing perimeters of the park. We found out that subsistence forest gathering was the possible main driver for forest degradation out of the eight livelihood guilds that were identified in the park. Determining the high conservation areas and identifyingthe anthropogenic factors that influence the species richness and abundance of key species in the different management zone of MGGNP would provide guidance for the design of a protected area management plan and future monitoring programs. However, through intensive communication and consultation with government stakeholders and local communities our results led to setting conservation targets in local development plans and serve as a basis for the reposition of the boundaries and reconfiguration of the management zones of MGGNP.

Keywords: conservation gaps, livelihood guilds, MaxEnt, protected area

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Authors: Kailash C. Madan

Abstract:

We study the steady state behaviour of a batch arrival single server queue in which the first service with general service times is compulsory and the second service with general service times is optional. We term such a two phase service as generalized Coxian-2 service. Just after completion of a service the server must take a vacation of random length of time with general vacation times. We obtain steady state probability generating functions for the queue size as well as the steady state mean queue size at a random epoch of time in explicit and closed forms. Some particular cases of interest including some known results have been derived.

Keywords: batch arrivals, compound Poisson process, generalized Coxian-2 service, steady state

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Authors: Yaping Zhao, Yimin Zhang

Abstract:

In the present paper, the stationary random vibration of a uniform cantilever beam is investigated. Two types of damping mechanism, i.e. the external and internal viscous dampings, are taken into account simultaneously. The excitation form is the support motion, and it is ideal white. Because two type of damping mechanism are considered concurrently, the product of the modal damping ratio and the natural frequency is not a constant anymore. As a result, the infinite definite integral encountered in the process of computing the mean square response is more complex than that in the existing literature. One signal progress of this work is to have calculated these definite integrals accurately. The precise solution of the mean square response is thus obtained in the infinite series form finally. Numerical examples are supplied and the numerical outcomes acquired confirm the validity of the theoretical analyses.

Keywords: random vibration, cantilever beam, mean square response, white noise

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Authors: Alice Brites, Gerd Sparovek, Jean Paul Metzger, Ricardo Rodrigues

Abstract:

The segregation between science and policy in decision making process hinders nature conservation efforts worldwide. Scientists have been criticized for not producing information that leads to effective solutions for environmental problems. In an attempt to bridge this gap between science and practice, we conducted a project aimed at supporting the implementation of the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) implementation in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. To do so, we conducted multiple open meetings with the stakeholders involved in this discussion. Throughout this process, we raised stakeholders' demands for scientific information and brought feedbacks about our findings. However, our main scientific advice was not taken into account during the NVPL implementation in SP. The NVPL has a mechanism that exempts landholders who converted native vegetation without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion from restoration requirements. We found out that there were no accurate spatialized data for native vegetation cover before the 1960s. Thus, the initial benchmark for the mechanism application should be the 1965 Brazilian Forest Act. Even so, SP kept the 1934 Brazilian Forest Act as the initial legal benchmark for the law application. This decision implies the use of a probabilistic native vegetation map that has uncertainty and subjectivity as its intrinsic characteristics, thus its use can lead to legal queries, corruption, and an unfair benefit application. But why this decision was made even after the scientific advice was vastly divulgated? We raised some possible reasons to explain it. First, the decision was made during a government transition, showing that circumstantial political events can overshadow scientific arguments. Second, the debate about the NVPL in SP was not pacified and powerful stakeholders could benefit from the confusion created by this decision. Finally, the native vegetation protection mechanism is a complex issue, with many technical aspects that can be hard to understand for a non-specialized courtroom, such as the one that made the final decision at SP. This example shows that science and decision-makers still have a long way ahead to improve their way to interact and that science needs to find its way to be heard above the political buzz.

Keywords: Brazil, forest act, science-based dialogue, science-policy interface

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Authors: Sajjad Asefi, Hossein Afrakhte

Abstract:

This paper presents the evaluation of reliability indices of an electrical distribution system using Monte Carlo simulation technique accounting Time To Switch (TTS) for each section. In this paper, the distribution system has been assumed by accounting random repair time omission. For simplicity, we have assumed the reliability analysis to be based on exponential law. Each segment has a specified rate of failure (λ) and repair time (r) which will give us the mean up time and mean down time of each section in distribution system. After calculating the modified mean up time (MUT) in years, mean down time (MDT) in hours and unavailability (U) in h/year, TTS have been added to the time which the system is not available, i.e. MDT. In this paper, we have assumed the TTS to be a random variable with Log-Normal distribution.

Keywords: distribution system, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, repair time, time to switch (TTS)

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