Search results for: profit driven model

Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: Enyia James Diwa, Dodeye Ina Igbong, Archibong Archibong Eso

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Gas turbine operators have been faced with the dramatic financial setback resulting from compressor fouling. In a highly deregulated power industry where there is stiffness in the market competition, has made it imperative to improvise means of reducing maintenance cost in other to yield maximum profit. Compressor fouling results from the deposition of contaminants in the presence of oil and moisture on the compressor blade or annulus surfaces, which leads to a loss in flow capacity and compressor efficiency. These combined effects reduce power output, increase heat rate and cause creep life reduction. This paper also contains a model of two gas turbine engines via Cranfield University software known as TURBOMATCH, which is simulation software for detecting engine fouling rate. The model engines are of different configurations and capacities, and are operating in two different modes of constant output power and turbine inlet temperature for a two and three stage filter system. The idea is to investigate the more economically viable filtration systems by gas turbine users based on performance only. It has been demonstrated in the results that the two spool engine is a little more beneficial compared to the single spool. This is as a result of a higher pressure ratio of the two spools as well as the deceleration of the high-pressure compressor and high-pressure turbine speed in a constant TET. Meanwhile, the inlet filtration system was properly designed and balanced with a well-timed and economical compressor washing regime/scheme to control compressor fouling. The different technologies of inlet air filtration and compressor washing are considered and an attempt at optimization with respect to the cost of a combination of both control measures are made.

Keywords: inlet filtration, pressure loss, single spool, two spool

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Authors: Agnes J. Otjen, Sarah Keller

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A Montana university has used applied consumer research in experiential learning with non-profit clients for over a decade. Through trial and error, a successful protocol has been established from problem statement through formative research to integrated marketing campaign execution. In this paper, we describe the protocol and its applications. Analysis was completed to determine the effectiveness of the campaigns and the results of how pre- and post-consumer research mark societal change because of media.

Keywords: consumer, research, marketing, communications

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Authors: Ruilian Zhao, Shukai Zhang, Yan Wang, Weiwei Wang

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Repairing broken test cases is an expensive and challenging task in evolving software systems. Although an automated repair technique with intent preservation has been proposed, but it does not take into account the association between test repairs and assertions, leading to a large number of irrelevant candidates and decreasing the repair capability. This paper proposes an assertion-driven test repair approach. Furthermore, an intent-oriented priority criterion is raised to guide the repair candidate generation, making the repairs closer to the intent of the test. In more detail, repair targets are determined through post-dominance relations between assertions and the methods that directly cause compilation errors. Then, test repairs are generated from the target in a bottom-up way, guided by the intent-oriented priority criteria. Finally, the generated repair candidates are prioritized to match the original test intent. The approach is implemented and evaluated on the benchmark of 4 open-source programs and 91 broken test cases. The result shows that the approach can fix 89% (81/91) of broken test cases, which is more effective than the existing intentpreserved test repair approach, and our intent-oriented priority criteria work well.

Keywords: test repair, test intent, software test, test case evolution

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Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

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In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

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Authors: Franco Ferrucci, Driss Stitou, Pascal Ortega, Franck Lucas

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The energy situation in tropical insular regions, as found in the French Polynesian islands, presents a number of challenges, such as high dependence on imported fuel, high transport costs from the mainland and weak electricity grids. Alternatively, these regions have a variety of renewable energy resources, which favor the exploitation of smart microgrids and energy storage technologies. With regards to the electrical energy demand, the high temperatures in these regions during the entire year implies that a large proportion of consumption is used for cooling buildings, even during the evening hours. In this context, this paper presents an air conditioning system driven by photovoltaic (PV) electricity that combines a refrigeration system and a thermochemical storage process. Thermochemical processes are able to store energy in the form of chemical potential with virtually no losses, and this energy can be used to produce cooling during the evening hours without the need to run a compressor (thus no electricity is required). Such storage processes implement thermochemical reactors in which a reversible chemical reaction between a solid compound and a gas takes place. The solid/gas pair used in this study is BaCl2 reacting with ammonia (NH3), which is also the coolant fluid in the refrigeration circuit. In the proposed system, the PV-driven electric compressor is used during the daytime either to run the refrigeration circuit when a cooling demand occurs or to decompose the ammonia-charged salt and remove the gas from thermochemical reactor when no cooling is needed. During the evening, when there is no electricity from solar source, the system changes its configuration and the reactor reabsorbs the ammonia gas from the evaporator and produces the cooling effect. In comparison to classical PV-driven air conditioning units equipped with electrochemical batteries (e.g. Pb, Li-ion), the proposed system has the advantage of having a novel storage technology with a much longer charge/discharge life cycle, and no self-discharge. It also allows a continuous operation of the electric compressor during the daytime, thus avoiding the problems associated with the on-off cycling. This work focuses on the system concept and on the efficiency study of its main components. It also compares the thermochemical with electrochemical storage as well as with other forms of thermal storage, such as latent (ice) and sensible heat (chilled water). The preliminary results show that the system seems to be a promising alternative to simultaneously fulfill cooling and energy storage needs in tropical insular regions.

Keywords: microgrid, solar air-conditioning, solid/gas sorption, thermochemical storage, tropical and insular regions

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Behzad Panahirad, UğUr Atikol

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The current study is based on a combined heat and power system with multi-objectives, driven by biomass. The system consists of a combustion chamber (CC), a single effect absorption cooling system (SEACS), an air conditioning unit (AC), a reheat steam Rankine cycle (RRC), an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and an electrolyzer. The purpose of this system is to produce hydrogen, electricity, heat, cooling, and air conditioning. All the simulations had been performed by Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software. Pine sawdust is the selected biofuel for the combustion process. The overall utilization factor (εₑₙ) and exergetic efficiency (ψₑₓ) were calculated to be 2.096 and 24.03% respectively. The performed renewable and environmental impact analysis indicated a sustainability index of 1.316 (SI) and a specific CO2 emission of 353.8 kg/MWh. The parametric study is conducted based on the variation of ambient (sink) temperature, biofuel mass flow rate, and boilers outlet temperatures. The parametric simulation showed that the increase in biofuel mass flow rate has a positive effect on the sustainability of the system.

Keywords: biomass, exergy assessment, multi-objective plant, CO₂ emission, irreversibility

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Authors: Jongho Park, Junwon Lee, Byeonghyun Choi, Kicheol Lee, Dongwook Kim

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The typically-used oil sand plant foundations are driven pile or drilled shaft. With more strict environmental regulations world widely, it became more important to completely remove the foundation during the stage of plant demolition. However, it is difficult to remove driven piles or drilled shafts that are installed at a deeper and stronger depth to gain more bearing pile capacity. The helical pile can be easily removed after its use and recycled; therefore it is suitable for oil sand plant foundation. This study analyzes the behavior of helical piles in sands. Axial pile load tests were carried out the varying spacing of helix plates (helices), rotation speed and weight of axial loading during pile installation. From the experiments, optimal helix plate spacing, rotation speed, axial loading during installation were determined. In addition, the behavior of helical pile groups was examined varying pile spacing. Finally, the behavior of single helical piles and that of group helical piles were compared.

Keywords: oil sand plant, pile load test, helical pile, group helical pile, behavior

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Paulo Roberto Vasconcellos-Silva

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The "Janeiro Roxo" (Purple January) campaign in Brazil aims to promote awareness of leprosy and its early symptoms. The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected institutional campaigns, mostly considering leprosy a neglected disease by the media. Google Trends (GT) is a tool that tracks user searches on Google, providing insights into the popularity of specific search terms. Our prior research has categorized online searches into two types: "Reactive searches," driven by transient campaign-related stimuli, and "Proactive searches," driven by personal interest in early symptoms and self-diagnosis. Using GT we studied: (i) the impact of "Janeiro Roxo" on public interest in leprosy (assessed through reactive searches) and its early symptoms (evaluated through proactive searches) over the past five years; (ii) changes in public interest during and after the COVID-19 pandemic; (iii) patterns in the dynamics of reactive and proactive searches Methods: We used GT's "Relative Search Volume" (RSV) to gauge public interest on a scale from 0 to 100. "HANSENÍASE" (HAN) was a proxy for reactive searches, and "HANSENÍASE SINTOMAS" (leprosy symptoms) (H.SIN) for proactive searches (interest in leprosy or in self-diagnosis). We analyzed 261 weeks of data from 2018 to 2023, using polynomial trend lines to model trends over this period. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to compare weekly RSV, monthly (MM) and annual means (AM). Results: Over a span of 261 weeks, there was consistently higher Relative Search Volume (RSV) for HAN compared to H.SIN. Both search terms exhibited their highest (MM) in January months during all periods. COVID-19 pandemic: a decline was observed during the pandemic years (2020-2021). There was a 24% decrease in RSV for HAN and a 32.5% decrease for H.SIN. Both HAN and H.SIN regained their pre-pandemic search levels in January 2022-2023. Breakpoints indicated abrupt changes - in the 26th week (February 2019), 55th and 213th weeks (September 2019 and 2022) related to September regional campaigns (interrupted in 2020-2021). Trend lines for HAN exhibited an upward curve between 33rd-45th week (April to June 2019), a pandemic-related downward trend between 120th-136th week (December 2020 to March 2021), and an upward trend between 220th-240th week (November 2022 to March 2023). Conclusion: The "Janeiro Roxo" campaign, along with other media-driven activities, exerts a notable influence on both reactive and proactive searches related to leprosy topics. Reactive searches, driven by campaign stimuli, significantly outnumber proactive searches. Despite the interruption of the campaign due to the pandemic, there was a subsequent resurgence in both types of searches. The recovery observed in reactive and proactive searches post-campaign interruption underscores the effectiveness of such initiatives, particularly at the national level. This suggests that regional campaigns aimed at leprosy awareness can be considered highly successful in stimulating proactive public engagement. The evaluation of internet-based campaign programs proves valuable not only for assessing their impact but also for identifying the needs of vulnerable regions. These programs can play a crucial role in integrating regions and highlighting their needs for assistance services in the context of leprosy awareness.

Keywords: health communication, leprosy, health campaigns, information seeking behavior, Google Trends, reactive searches, proactive searches, leprosy early identification

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Authors: Rui-Xiong Han, Rui Ge, Shao-Peng Li, Lin Bian, Liang-Rui Sun, Min-Jing Sang, Rui Ye, Ya-Ping Liu, Xiang-Zhen Zhang, Jie-Hao Zhang, Zhuo Zhang, Jian-Qing Zhang, Miao-Fu Xu

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The Chinese Accelerator Driven Sub-critical system (C-ADS) uses a high-energy proton beam to bombard the metal target and generate neutrons to deal with the nuclear waste. The Chinese ADS proton linear has two 0~10 MeV injectors and one 10~1500 MeV superconducting linac. Injector-I is studied by the Institute of High Energy Physics (IHEP) under construction in the Beijing, China. The linear accelerator consists of two accelerating cryomodules operating at the temperature of 2 Kelvin. This paper describes the structure and thermal performances analysis of the cryomodule. The analysis takes into account all the main contributors (support posts, multilayer insulation, current leads, power couplers, and cavities) to the static and dynamic heat load at various cryogenic temperature levels. The thermal simulation analysis of the cryomodule is important theory foundation of optimization and commissioning.

Keywords: C-ADS, cryomodule, structure, thermal simulation, static heat load, dynamic heat load

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Authors: Sabri Mrayed, David Maccioni, Greg Leslie

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Seawater desalination has been accepted as one of the most effective solutions to the growing problem of a diminishing clean drinking water supply. Currently, two desalination technologies dominate the market – the thermally driven multi-stage flash distillation (MSF) and the membrane based reverse osmosis (RO). However, in recent years membrane distillation (MD) has emerged as a potential alternative to the established means of desalination. This research project intended to determine the viability of MD as an alternative process to MSF and RO for seawater desalination. Specifically the project involves conducting a thermodynamic analysis of the process based on the second law of thermodynamics to determine the efficiency of the MD. Data was obtained from experiments carried out on a laboratory rig. In order to determine exergy values required for the exergy analysis, two separate models were built in Engineering Equation Solver – the ’Minimum Separation Work Model’ and the ‘Stream Exergy Model’. The efficiency of MD process was found to be 17.3 %, and the energy consumption was determined to be 4.5 kWh to produce one cubic meter of fresh water. The results indicate MD has potential as a technique for seawater desalination compared to RO and MSF. However, it was shown that this was only the case if an alternate energy source such as green or waste energy was available to provide the thermal energy input to the process. If the process was required to power itself, it was shown to be highly inefficient and in no way thermodynamically viable as a commercial desalination process.

Keywords: desalination, exergy, membrane distillation, second law efficiency

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Authors: Shreya Poddar

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Legal drafting and revising are recognized as highly demanding tasks for legal professionals. This paper introduces an approach to automate and refine these processes through the use of advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI). The method employs Large Language Models (LLMs), with a specific focus on 'Chain of Thoughts' (CoT) and knowledge injection via prompt engineering. This approach differs from conventional methods that depend on comprehensive training or fine-tuning of models with extensive legal knowledge bases, which are often expensive and time-consuming. The proposed method incorporates knowledge injection directly into prompts, thereby enabling the AI to generate more accurate and contextually appropriate legal texts. This approach substantially decreases the necessity for thorough model training while preserving high accuracy and relevance in drafting. Additionally, the concept of guardrails is introduced. These are predefined parameters or rules established within the AI system to ensure that the generated content adheres to legal standards and ethical guidelines. The practical implications of this method for legal work are considerable. It has the potential to markedly lessen the time lawyers allocate to document drafting and revision, freeing them to concentrate on more intricate and strategic facets of legal work. Furthermore, this method makes high-quality legal drafting more accessible, possibly reducing costs and expanding the availability of legal services. This paper will elucidate the methodology, providing specific examples and case studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of 'Chain of Thoughts' and knowledge injection in legal drafting. The potential challenges and limitations of this approach will also be discussed, along with future prospects and enhancements that could further advance legal work. The impact of this research on the legal industry is substantial. The adoption of AI-driven methods by legal professionals can lead to enhanced efficiency, precision, and consistency in legal drafting, thereby altering the landscape of legal work. This research adds to the expanding field of AI in law, introducing a method that could significantly alter the nature of legal drafting and practice.

Keywords: AI-driven legal drafting, legal automation, futureoflegalwork, largelanguagemodels

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Sameh Shahin, Nannang Arrys

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Optimizing pit slope stability and reducing strip ratio of a mining operation are two key tasks in geotechnical engineering. With a growing demand for minerals and an increasing cost associated with extraction, companies are constantly re-evaluating the viability of mineral deposits and challenging their geological understanding. Within Rio Tinto Iron Ore, the Structural Geology (SG) team investigate and collect critical data, such as point based orientations, mapping and geological inferences from adjacent pits to re-model deposits where previous interpretations have failed to account for structurally controlled slope failures. Utilizing innovative data collection methods and data-driven investigation, SG aims to address the root causes of slope instability. Committing to a resource grid drill campaign as the primary source of data collection will often bias data collection to a specific orientation and significantly reduce the capability to identify and qualify complexity. Consequently, these limitations make it difficult to construct a realistic and coherent structural model that identifies adverse structural domains. Without the consideration of complexity and the capability of capturing these structural domains, mining operations run the risk of inadequately designed slopes that may fail and potentially harm people. Regional structural trends have been considered in conjunction with surface and in-pit mapping data to model multi-batter fold structures that were absent from previous iterations of the structural model. The risk is evident in newly identified dip-slope and rock-mass controlled sectors of the geotechnical design rather than a ubiquitous dip-slope sector across the pit. The reward is two-fold: 1) providing sectors of rock-mass controlled design in previously interpreted structurally controlled domains and 2) the opportunity to optimize the slope angle for mineral recovery and reduced strip ratio. Furthermore, a resulting high confidence model with structures and geometries that can account for historic slope instabilities in structurally controlled domains where design assumptions failed.

Keywords: structural geology, geotechnical design, optimization, slope stability, risk mitigation

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Ali Al-Shehri, Abdulaziz Al-Qasim, Abdulkarim Sofi, Ali Yousef

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The oil and gas industry has played a major role in improving the prosperity of mankind and driving the world economy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Integrated Environmental Assessment (EIA) estimates, the world will continue to rely heavily on hydrocarbons for decades to come. This growing energy demand mandates taking sustainability measures to prolong the availability of reliable and affordable energy sources, and ensure lowering its environmental impact. Unlike any other industry, the oil and gas upstream operations are energy-intensive and scattered over large zonal areas. These challenging conditions require unique sustainability solutions. In recent years there has been a concerted effort by the oil and gas industry to develop and deploy innovative technologies to: maximize efficiency, reduce carbon footprint, reduce CO2 emissions, and optimize resources and material consumption. In the past, the main driver for research and development (R&D) in the exploration and production sector was primarily driven by maximizing profit through higher hydrocarbon recovery and new discoveries. Environmental-friendly and sustainable technologies are increasingly being deployed to balance sustainability and profitability. Analyzing technology and its sustainability impact is increasingly being used in corporate decision-making for improved portfolio management and allocating valuable resources toward technology R&D.This paper articulates and discusses a novel workflow to identify strategic sustainable technologies for improved portfolio management by addressing existing and future upstream challenges. It uses a systematic approach that relies on sustainability key performance indicators (KPI’s) including energy efficiency quotient, carbon footprint, and CO2 emissions. The paper provides examples of various technologies including CCS, reducing water cuts, automation, using renewables, energy efficiency, etc. The use of 4IR technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Data Analytics are also discussed. Overlapping technologies, areas of collaboration and synergistic relationships are identified. The unique sustainability analyses provide improved decision-making on technology portfolio management.

Keywords: sustainability, oil& gas, technology portfolio, key performance indicator

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Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

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Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong

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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.

Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar Mishra, Tarun Kumar Dan

Abstract:

Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control method is proposed based on Internal Model Control (IMC) strategy. In this paper, we have designed the Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control for binary distillation column for SISO process (considering only bottom product). The transfer function has been taken from Wood and Berry model. We have find the composition control and disturbance rejection using Lead-Lag based IMC and comparing with the response of simple Internal Model Controller.

Keywords: SISO, lead-lag, internal model control, wood and berry, distillation column

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Authors: Joy Cao, Min Zhou

Abstract:

Purpose: Acute Type A aortic dissection is a well-known cause of extremely high mortality rate. A highly accurate and cost-effective non-invasive predictor is critically needed so that the patient can be treated at earlier stage. Although various CFD approaches have been tried to establish some prediction frameworks, they are sensitive to uncertainty in both image segmentation and boundary conditions. Tedious pre-processing and demanding calibration procedures requirement further compound the issue, thus hampering their clinical applicability. Using the latest physics informed deep learning methods to establish an accurate and cost-effective predictor framework are amongst the main goals for a better Type A aortic dissection treatment. Methods: Via training a novel physics-informed deep residual network, with non-invasive 4D MRI displacement vectors as inputs, the trained model can cost-effectively calculate all these biomarkers: aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI, which are used to predict potential type A aortic dissection to avoid the high mortality events down the road. Results: The proposed deep learning method has been successfully trained and tested with both synthetic 3D aneurysm dataset and a clinical dataset in the aortic dissection context using Google colab environment. In both cases, the model has generated aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI results matching the expected patient’s health status. Conclusion: The proposed novel physics-informed deep residual network shows great potential to create a cost-effective, non-invasive predictor framework. Additional physics-based de-noising algorithm will be added to make the model more robust to clinical data noises. Further studies will be conducted in collaboration with big institutions such as Cleveland Clinic with more clinical samples to further improve the model’s clinical applicability.

Keywords: type-a aortic dissection, deep residual networks, blood flow modeling, data-driven modeling, non-invasive diagnostics, deep learning, artificial intelligence.

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Authors: B. Dehghan, T. Toppi, M. Aprile, M. Motta

Abstract:

The environmental concerns related to global warming and ozone layer depletion along with the growing worldwide demand for heating and cooling have brought an increasing attention toward ecological and efficient Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. Furthermore, since space heating accounts for a considerable part of the European primary/final energy use, it has been identified as one of the sectors with the most challenging targets in energy use reduction. Heat pumps are commonly considered as a technology able to contribute to the achievement of the targets. Current research focuses on the full load operation and seasonal performance assessment of three gas-driven absorption heat pump cycles. To do this, investigations of the gas-driven air-source ammonia-water absorption heat pump systems for small-scale space heating applications are presented. For each of the presented cycles, both full-load under various temperature conditions and seasonal performances are predicted by means of numerical simulations. It has been considered that small capacity appliances are usually equipped with fixed geometry restrictors, meaning that the solution mass flow rate is driven by the pressure difference across the associated restrictor valve. Results show that gas utilization efficiency (GUE) of the cycles varies between 1.2 and 1.7 for both full and partial loads and vapor exchange (VX) cycle is found to achieve the highest efficiency. It is noticed that, for typical space heating applications, heat pumps operate over a wide range of capacities and thermal lifts. Thus, partially, the novelty introduced in the paper is the investigation based on a seasonal performance approach, following the method prescribed in a recent European standard (EN 12309). The overall result is a modest variation in the seasonal performance for analyzed cycles, from 1.427 (single-effect) to 1.493 (vapor-exchange).

Keywords: absorption cycles, gas utilization efficiency, heat pump, seasonal performance, vapor exchange cycle

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