Search results for: longitudinal model
16822 Metamorphic Computer Virus Classification Using Hidden Markov Model
Authors: Babak Bashari Rad
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A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model
Procedia PDF Downloads 31516821 UML Model for Double-Loop Control Self-Adaptive Braking System
Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim
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In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption, we can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.Keywords: activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, self-adaptive, UML, vehicle
Procedia PDF Downloads 41616820 Impact of Natural Period and Epicentral Distance on Storey Lateral Displacements
Authors: Saida Dorbani, M'hammed Badaoui, Djilali Benouar
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This paper deals with the effect of the building design and epicentral distance on the storey lateral displacement, for several reinforced concrete buildings (6, 9 and 12 stories), with three floor plans: symmetric, mono symmetric, and unsymmetrical. These structures are subjected to seismic accelerations from the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21st, Mw=6.5). The objective of this study is to highlight the impact of the fundamental period and epicentral distance on storey displacements for a given earthquake. The seismic lateral displacement is carried out in both longitudinal and transverse direction by the response spectrum method.Keywords: natural period, epicenter distance, reinforced concrete buildings, storey displacement
Procedia PDF Downloads 26316819 Digital Reconstruction of Museum's Statue Using 3D Scanner for Cultural Preservation in Indonesia
Authors: Ahmad Zaini, F. Muhammad Reza Hadafi, Surya Sumpeno, Muhtadin, Mochamad Hariadi
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The lack of information about museum’s collection reduces the number of visits of museum. Museum’s revitalization is an urgent activity to increase the number of visits. The research's roadmap is building a web-based application that visualizes museum in the virtual form including museum's statue reconstruction in the form of 3D. This paper describes implementation of three-dimensional model reconstruction method based on light-strip pattern on the museum statue using 3D scanner. Noise removal, alignment, meshing and refinement model's processes is implemented to get a better 3D object reconstruction. Model’s texture derives from surface texture mapping between object's images with reconstructed 3D model. Accuracy test of dimension of the model is measured by calculating relative error of virtual model dimension compared against the original object. The result is realistic three-dimensional model textured with relative error around 4.3% to 5.8%.Keywords: 3D reconstruction, light pattern structure, texture mapping, museum
Procedia PDF Downloads 46516818 On Early Verb Acquisition in Chinese-Speaking Children
Authors: Yating Mu
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Young children acquire native language with amazing rapidity. After noticing this interesting phenomenon, lots of linguistics, as well as psychologists, devote themselves to exploring the best explanations. Thus researches on first language acquisition emerged. Early lexical development is an important branch of children’s FLA (first language acquisition). Verb, the most significant class of lexicon, the most grammatically complex syntactic category or word type, is not only the core of exploring syntactic structures of language but also plays a key role in analyzing semantic features. Obviously, early verb development must have great impacts on children’s early lexical acquisition. Most scholars conclude that verbs, in general, are very difficult to learn because the problem in verb learning might be more about mapping a specific verb onto an action or event than about learning the underlying relational concepts that the verb or relational term encodes. However, the previous researches on early verb development mainly focus on the argument about whether there is a noun-bias or verb-bias in children’s early productive vocabulary. There are few researches on general characteristics of children’s early verbs concerning both semantic and syntactic aspects, not mentioning a general survey on Chinese-speaking children’s verb acquisition. Therefore, the author attempts to examine the general conditions and characteristics of Chinese-speaking children’s early productive verbs, based on data from a longitudinal study on three Chinese-speaking children. In order to present an overall picture of Chinese verb development, both semantic and syntactic aspects will be focused in the present study. As for semantic analysis, a classification method is adopted first. Verb category is a sophisticated class in Mandarin, so it is quite necessary to divide it into small sub-types, thus making the research much easier. By making a reasonable classification of eight verb classes on basis of semantic features, the research aims at finding out whether there exist any universal rules in Chinese-speaking children’s verb development. With regard to the syntactic aspect of verb category, a debate between nativist account and usage-based approach has lasted for quite a long time. By analyzing the longitudinal Mandarin data, the author attempts to find out whether the usage-based theory can fully explain characteristics in Chinese verb development. To sum up, this thesis attempts to apply the descriptive research method to investigate the acquisition and the usage of Chinese-speaking children’s early verbs, on purpose of providing a new perspective in investigating semantic and syntactic features of early verb acquisition.Keywords: Chinese-speaking children, early verb acquisition, verb classes, verb grammatical structures
Procedia PDF Downloads 36616817 Evaluation of Turbulence Modelling of Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flow in a Venturi
Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu
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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi
Procedia PDF Downloads 17316816 Evaluation of High Damping Rubber Considering Initial History through Dynamic Loading Test and Program Analysis
Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda
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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test
Procedia PDF Downloads 12316815 Analysis of Reliability of Mining Shovel Using Weibull Model
Authors: Anurag Savarnya
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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel
Procedia PDF Downloads 51416814 R Software for Parameter Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Model
Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan
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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software
Procedia PDF Downloads 24316813 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods
Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow
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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method
Procedia PDF Downloads 35016812 Effect of Interlayer Coupling in Co/Al2O3/Co
Authors: Niru Chowdhury, Subhankar Bedanta, Alexander Weber, Thomas Brueckel
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We show the effect of interlayer coupling on magnetization reversal in purely dipolar coupled magnetic multilayers. Longitudinal magneto-optic Kerr microscopy (LMOKE) has been performed on [Co(10nm)/Al2O3(t)/Co(10nm)] for various thicknesses of Al2O3(t). We will show that inter-layer coupling interactions lead to layer-by-layer reversal in the magnetic multilayers. Also transverse component of magnetization was observed for higher thickness of the spacer layer.Keywords: Interlayer coupling, Magnetic domains, Magneto – Optic Kerr effect microscopy, Magnetization reversal, Magnetic thin film
Procedia PDF Downloads 39916811 Developing Fuzzy Logic Model for Reliability Estimation: Case Study
Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed
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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA
Procedia PDF Downloads 61416810 Developing a Systems Dynamics Model for Security Management
Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen
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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 43016809 Location Quotients Model in Turkey’s Provinces and Nuts II Regions
Authors: Semih Sözer
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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development
Procedia PDF Downloads 42416808 Media Richness Perspective on Web 2.0 Usage for Knowledge Creation: The Case of the Cocoa Industry in Ghana
Authors: Albert Gyamfi
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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0
Procedia PDF Downloads 33316807 Artificial Neural Network Based Approach for Estimation of Individual Vehicle Speed under Mixed Traffic Condition
Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh
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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic
Procedia PDF Downloads 38816806 Contribution of Intermediate Diaphragms on LDFs of Straight and Skew Concrete Multicell Box-Girder Bridges
Authors: Iman Mohseni
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Current studies indicate that neglecting the effect of intermediate diaphragms might lead to highly conservative values for bending moment distribution factors and result in non-economic designs for skew bridges. This paper reports on a parametric study performed on 160 prototypes of straight and skew concrete multicell box-girder bridges. The obtained results were used to develop practical expressions to account for the diaphragm effects on American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials formulas for live load distribution factors. It was observed that decks with internal transverse diaphragms perpendicular to the longitudinal webs are the best arrangement for load distribution in skew bridges.Keywords: box bridges, truck, distribution factor, diaphragm
Procedia PDF Downloads 38016805 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries
Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru
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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD
Procedia PDF Downloads 34316804 Design Channel Non Persistent CSMA MAC Protocol Model for Complex Wireless Systems Based on SoC
Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa
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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA
Procedia PDF Downloads 42816803 A Deep Learning Based Integrated Model For Spatial Flood Prediction
Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath
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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding
Procedia PDF Downloads 14716802 Model of Transhipment and Routing Applied to the Cargo Sector in Small and Medium Enterprises of Bogotá, Colombia
Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca
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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 23016801 A Model for Predicting Organic Compounds Concentration Change in Water Associated with Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing
Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo
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Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds
Procedia PDF Downloads 22616800 Unified Structured Process for Health Analytics
Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo
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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML
Procedia PDF Downloads 50616799 Analysis of the Temperature Dependence of Local Avalanche Compact Model for Bipolar Transistors
Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn
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We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche
Procedia PDF Downloads 62216798 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic
Authors: Jiri Dufek
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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities
Procedia PDF Downloads 13116797 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk
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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate
Procedia PDF Downloads 36916796 Simulation of Flow Patterns in Vertical Slot Fishway with Cylindrical Obstacles
Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri
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Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’
Procedia PDF Downloads 36316795 Ultrasonic Measurement of Elastic Properties of Fiber Reinforced Composite Materials
Authors: Hatice Guzel, Imran Oral, Huseyin Isler
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In this study, elastic constants, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratios, and shear moduli of orthotropic composite materials, consisting of E-glass/epoxy and carbon/epoxy, were calculated by ultrasonic velocities which were measured using ultrasonic pulse-echo method. 35 MHz computer controlled analyzer, 60 MHz digital oscilloscope, 5 MHz longitudinal probe, and 2,25 MHz transverse probe were used for the measurements of ultrasound velocities, the measurements were performed at ambient temperature. It was understood from the data obtained in this study that, measured ultrasound velocities and the calculated elasticity coefficients were depending on the fiber orientations.Keywords: composite materials, elastic constants, orthotropic materials, ultrasound
Procedia PDF Downloads 29316794 Improving Student Retention with Summer Bridge Programs
Authors: Elizabeth Watson, Sara Vogt
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The transition from high school to college can be an exciting and confusing time for many students, especially college students with disabilities. In 1983, the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater created a Summer Transition Program (STP) for such students as part of a US Department of Education Demonstration Grant. This program offers incoming students the opportunity to take 2 college courses and live on campus for 4 weeks to help introduce and familiarize them with typical college expectations and support services. Over the past 30 years, 48% of the students have graduated, exceeding the national college graduation rate for students with disabilities. This mixed methods longitudinal study will discuss how this program has increased retention and graduation rates, and success in the co-curricular and living environments for students with disabilities.Keywords: disability, transition, post-secondary education, retention
Procedia PDF Downloads 29216793 Frequency Selective Filters for Estimating the Equivalent Circuit Parameters of Li-Ion Battery
Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas
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The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition
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