Search results for: density estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5255

Search results for: density estimation

4715 State Estimation Based on Unscented Kalman Filter for Burgers’ Equation

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Controlling the flow of fluids is a challenging problem that arises in many fields. Burgers’ equation is a fundamental equation for several flow phenomena such as traffic, shock waves, and turbulence. The optimal feedback control method, so-called model predictive control, has been proposed for Burgers’ equation. However, the model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In practical point of view, it is unusual that all the state variables of systems are exactly known, because the state variables of systems are measured through output sensors and limited parts of them can be only available. In fact, it is usual that flow velocities of fluid systems cannot be measured for all spatial domains. Hence, any practical feedback controller for fluid systems must incorporate some type of state estimator. To apply the model predictive control to the fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation, it is needed to establish a state estimation method for Burgers’ equation with limited measurable state variables. To this purpose, we apply unscented Kalman filter for estimating the state variables of fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation. The objective of this study is to establish a state estimation method based on unscented Kalman filter for Burgers’ equation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: observer systems, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, Burgers' equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
4714 A Digital Filter for Symmetrical Components Identification

Authors: Khaled M. El-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a fast and efficient technique for monitoring and supervising power system disturbances generated due to dynamic performance of power systems or faults. Monitoring power system quantities involve monitoring fundamental voltage, current magnitudes, and their frequencies as well as their negative and zero sequence components under different operating conditions. The proposed technique is based on simulated annealing optimization technique (SA). The method uses digital set of measurements for the voltage or current waveforms at power system bus to perform the estimation process digitally. The algorithm is tested using different simulated data to monitor the symmetrical components of power system waveforms. Different study cases are considered in this work. Effects of number of samples, sampling frequency and the sample window size are studied. Results are reported and discussed.

Keywords: estimation, faults, measurement, symmetrical components

Procedia PDF Downloads 464
4713 A Bathtub Curve from Nonparametric Model

Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
4712 An Efficient Propensity Score Method for Causal Analysis With Application to Case-Control Study in Breast Cancer Research

Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

Abstract:

Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
4711 On Confidence Intervals for the Difference between Inverse of Normal Means with Known Coefficients of Variation

Authors: Arunee Wongkhao, Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two new confidence intervals for the difference between the inverse of normal means with known coefficients of variation. One of these two confidence intervals for this problem is constructed based on the generalized confidence interval and the other confidence interval is constructed based on the closed form method of variance estimation. We examine the performance of these confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths via Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: coverage probability, expected length, inverse of normal mean, coefficient of variation, generalized confidence interval, closed form method of variance estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
4710 Crystal Structure, Vibration Study, and Calculated Frequencies by Density Functional Theory Method of Copper Phosphate Dihydrate

Authors: Soufiane Zerraf, Malika Tridane, Said Belaaouad

Abstract:

CuHPO₃.2H₂O was synthesized by the direct method. CuHPO₃.2H₂O crystallizes in the orthorhombic system, space group P2₁2₁2₁, a = 6.7036 (2) Å, b = 7.3671 (4) Å, c = 8.9749 (4) Å, Z = 4, V = 443.24 (4) ų. The crystal structure was refined to R₁= 0.0154, R₂= 0.0380 for 19018 reflections satisfying criterion I ≥ 2σ (I). The structural resolution shows the existence of chains of ions HPO₃- linked together by hydrogen bonds. The crystalline structure is formed by chains consisting of Cu[O₃(H₂O)₃] deformed octahedral, which are connected to the vertices. The chains extend parallel to b and are mutually linked by PO₃ groups. The structure is closely related to that of CuSeO₃.2H₂O and CuTeO₃.2H₂O. The experimental studies of the infrared and Raman spectra were used to confirm the presence of the phosphate ion and were compared in the (0-4000) cm-1 region with the theoretical results calculated by the density functional theory (DFT) method to provide reliable assignments of all observed bands in the experimental spectra.

Keywords: crystal structure, X-ray diffraction, vibration study, thermal behavior, density functional theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
4709 Data Driven Infrastructure Planning for Offshore Wind farms

Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

Abstract:

The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
4708 Effect of Bulk Density and Fiber Blend Content of Nonwoven Textiles on Flammability Properties

Authors: Klara Masnicova, Jiri Chaloupek

Abstract:

Flammability plays an important role in applications such as thermal and acoustic insulation and other technical nonwoven textiles. The study was conducted in an attempt to investigate the flammability behavior of nonwoven textiles in relation to their structural and material characteristics, with emphasis given to the blending ratios of flammable and non-flammable fibers or fibers with reduced flammability. Nonwoven structures made of blends of viscose/oxidized polyacrylonitrile (VS/oxidized PAN fibers and polyethylene terephthalate/oxidized polyacrylonitrile (PET/oxidized PAN) fibers in several bulk densities are evaluated. The VS/oxidized PAN blend is model material. The flammability was studied using a cone calorimeter. Reaction to fire was observed using the small flame test method. Interestingly, the results show some of the blending ratios do not react to the heat in linear response to bulk density. This outcome can have a huge impact on future product development in fire safety and for the general understanding of flammability behavior of nonwovens made of staple fibers.

Keywords: bulk density, cone calorimetry, flammability, nonwoven textiles

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
4707 A Carrier Phase High Precision Ranging Theory Based on Frequency Hopping

Authors: Jie Xu, Zengshan Tian, Ze Li

Abstract:

Previous indoor ranging or localization systems achieving high accuracy time of flight (ToF) estimation relied on two key points. One is to do strict time and frequency synchronization between the transmitter and receiver to eliminate equipment asynchronous errors such as carrier frequency offset (CFO), but this is difficult to achieve in a practical communication system. The other one is to extend the total bandwidth of the communication because the accuracy of ToF estimation is proportional to the bandwidth, and the larger the total bandwidth, the higher the accuracy of ToF estimation obtained. For example, ultra-wideband (UWB) technology is implemented based on this theory, but high precision ToF estimation is difficult to achieve in common WiFi or Bluetooth systems with lower bandwidth compared to UWB. Therefore, it is meaningful to study how to achieve high-precision ranging with lower bandwidth when the transmitter and receiver are asynchronous. To tackle the above problems, we propose a two-way channel error elimination theory and a frequency hopping-based carrier phase ranging algorithm to achieve high accuracy ranging under asynchronous conditions. The two-way channel error elimination theory uses the symmetry property of the two-way channel to solve the asynchronous phase error caused by the asynchronous transmitter and receiver, and we also study the effect of the two-way channel generation time difference on the phase according to the characteristics of different hardware devices. The frequency hopping-based carrier phase ranging algorithm uses frequency hopping to extend the equivalent bandwidth and incorporates a carrier phase ranging algorithm with multipath resolution to achieve a ranging accuracy comparable to that of UWB at 400 MHz bandwidth in the typical 80 MHz bandwidth of commercial WiFi. Finally, to verify the validity of the algorithm, we implement this theory using a software radio platform, and the actual experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a median ranging error of 5.4 cm in the 5 m range, 7 cm in the 10 m range, and 10.8 cm in the 20 m range for a total bandwidth of 80 MHz.

Keywords: frequency hopping, phase error elimination, carrier phase, ranging

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
4706 Investigation and Monitoring Method of Vector Density in Kaohsiung City

Authors: Chiu-Wen Chang, I-Yun Chang, Wei-Ting Chen, Hui-Ping Ho, Chao-Ying Pan, Joh-Jong Huang

Abstract:

Dengue is a ‘community disease’ or ‘environmental disease’, as long as the environment exist suitable container (including natural and artificial) for mosquito breeding, once the virus invade will lead to the dengue epidemic. Surveillance of vector density is critical to effective infectious disease control and play an important role in monitoring the dynamics of mosquitoes in community, such as mosquito species, density, distribution area. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship in vector density survey (Breteau index, Adult index, House index, Container index, and Larvae index) form 2014 to 2016 in Kaohsiung City and evaluate the effects of introducing the Breeding Elimination and Appraisal Team (hereinafter referred to as BEAT) as an intervention measure on eliminating dengue vector breeding site started from May 2016. BEAT were performed on people who were suspected of contracting dengue fever, a surrounding area measuring 50 meters by 50 meters was demarcated as the emergency prevention and treatment zone. BEAT would perform weekly vector mosquito inspections and vector mosquito inspections in regions with a high Gravitrap index and assign a risk assessment index to each region. These indices as well as the prevention and treatment results were immediately reported to epidemic prevention-related units every week. The results indicated that, vector indices from 2014 to 2016 showed no statistically significant differences in the Breteau index, adult index, and house index (p > 0.05) but statistically significant differences in the container index and larvae index (p <0.05). After executing the integrated elimination work, container index and larvae index are statistically significant different from 2014 to 2016 in the (p < 0.05). A post hoc test indicated that the container index of 2014 (M = 12.793) was significantly higher than that of 2016 (M = 7.631), and that the larvae index of 2015 (M = 34.065) was significantly lower than that of 2014 (M = 66.867). The results revealed that effective vector density surveillance could highlight the focus breeding site and then implement the immediate control action (BEAT), which successfully decreased the vector density and the risk of dengue epidemic.

Keywords: Breteau index, dengue control, monitoring method, vector density

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
4705 Experimental and Numerical Study of Thermal Effects in Variable Density Turbulent Jets

Authors: DRIS Mohammed El-Amine, BOUNIF Abdelhamid

Abstract:

This paper considers an experimental and numerical investigation of variable density in axisymmetric turbulent free jets. Special attention is paid to the study of the scalar dissipation rate. In this case, dynamic field equations are coupled to scalar field equations by the density which can vary by the thermal effect (jet heating). The numerical investigation is based on the first and second order turbulence models. For the discretization of the equations system characterizing the flow, the finite volume method described by Patankar (1980) was used. The experimental study was conducted in order to evaluate dynamical characteristics of a heated axisymmetric air flow using the Laser Doppler Anemometer (LDA) which is a very accurate optical measurement method. Experimental and numerical results are compared and discussed. This comparison do not show large difference and the results obtained are in general satisfactory.

Keywords: Scalar dissipation rate, thermal effects, turbulent axisymmetric jets, second order modelling, Velocimetry Laser Doppler.

Procedia PDF Downloads 448
4704 The Use of a Rabbit Model to Evaluate the Influence of Age on Excision Wound Healing

Authors: S. Bilal, S. A. Bhat, I. Hussain, J. D. Parrah, S. P. Ahmad, M. R. Mir

Abstract:

Background: The wound healing involves a highly coordinated cascade of cellular and immunological response over a period including coagulation, inflammation, granulation tissue formation, epithelialization, collagen synthesis and tissue remodeling. Wounds in aged heal more slowly than those in younger, mainly because of comorbidities that occur as one age. The present study is about the influence of age on wound healing. 1x1cm^2 (100 mm) wounds were created on the back of the animal. The animals were divided into two groups; one group had animals in the age group of 3-9 months while another group had animals in the age group of 15-21 months. Materials and Methods: 24 clinically healthy rabbits in the age group of 3-21 months were used as experimental animals and divided into two groups viz A and B. All experimental parameters, i.e., Excision wound model, Measurement of wound area, Protein extraction and estimation, Protein extraction and estimation and DNA extraction and estimation were done by standard methods. Results: The parameters studied were wound contraction, hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein, and DNA. A significant increase (p<0.005) in the hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein and DNA and a significant decrease in wound area (p<0.005) was observed in the age group of 3-9 months when compared to animals of an age group of 15-21 months. Wound contraction together with hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein and DNA estimations suggest that advanced age results in retarded wound healing. Conclusion: The decrease wound contraction and accumulation of hydroxyproline, glucosamine, protein and DNA in group B animals may be associated with the reduction or delay in growth factors because of the advancing age.

Keywords: age, wound healing, excision wound, hydroxyproline, glucosamine

Procedia PDF Downloads 658
4703 In Agile Projects - Arithmetic Sequence is More Effective than Fibonacci Sequence to Use for Estimating the Implementation Effort of User Stories

Authors: Khaled Jaber

Abstract:

The estimation of effort in software development is a complex task. The traditional Waterfall approach used to develop software systems requires a lot of time to estimate the effort needed to implement user requirements. Agile manifesto, however, is currently more used in the industry than the Waterfall to develop software systems. In Agile, the user requirement is referred to as a user story. Agile teams mostly use the Fibonacci sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11, etc. in estimating the effort needed to implement the user story. This work shows through analysis that the Arithmetic sequence, e.g., 3, 6, 9, 12, etc., is more effective than the Fibonacci sequence in estimating the user stories. This paper mathematically and visually proves the effectiveness of the Arithmetic sequence over the FB sequence.

Keywords: agie, scrum, estimation, fibonacci sequence

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
4702 Item Response Calibration/Estimation: An Approach to Adaptive E-Learning System Development

Authors: Adeniran Adetunji, Babalola M. Florence, Akande Ademola

Abstract:

In this paper, we made an overview on the concept of adaptive e-Learning system, enumerates the elements of adaptive learning concepts e.g. A pedagogical framework, multiple learning strategies and pathways, continuous monitoring and feedback on student performance, statistical inference to reach final learning strategy that works for an individual learner by “mass-customization”. Briefly highlights the motivation of this new system proposed for effective learning teaching. E-Review literature on the concept of adaptive e-learning system and emphasises on the Item Response Calibration, which is an important approach to developing an adaptive e-Learning system. This paper write-up is concluded on the justification of item response calibration/estimation towards designing a successful and effective adaptive e-Learning system.

Keywords: adaptive e-learning system, pedagogical framework, item response, computer applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 593
4701 Biotic Potential of Different Densities of Aphid Parasitoids, Diaeretiella rapae (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Aphidiinae) Feeding on Brevicoryne brassicae

Authors: Muhammad Anjum Aqueel, Muhammad Jaffar Hussain, Abu Bakar Muhammad Raza

Abstract:

Diaeretiella rapae (M’Intosh) attack most of the aphid species. However, it is specialized in feeding on crucifer aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae. Biological potential of parasitoid is its density-dependency due to sharing of limited resources in few cases. The present study was carried out to check the biotic potential of D. rapae at its different densities (1, 2, 4, 8 and 10 pairs) on fixed number of B. brassicae (100 in number) as a host. The present study was performed under laboratory conditions (25 ± 2 ºC temperature and 65-70 % R.H.). Different biological parameters for parasitoid (e.g. percent parasitism, adult emergence, adult longevity and per pair parasitism) were evaluated to check its biotic potential. The present findings showed that maximum parasitism (43.09 % ± 0.63) was observed in highest density (10 pairs) and minimum parasitism (16.59 % ± 1.28) in lowest density (1 pair) of the parasitoid. Maximum adult emergence (80.31 % ± 1.33) was observed in highest density (10 pairs) and minimum parasitism (45.99 % ± 1.27) in lowest density (1 pair) of the parasitoid. In the case of adult longevity, highest (8.2 days ± 0.38) and lowest (6 days ± 0.32) longevity were observed in lowest (1 pair) and highest (10 pairs) densities of parasitoids respectively. However, per pair parasitism rate decreased with the increase in parasitoid densities due to intra-specific competition, developed between the parasitoids for parasitism. The positive but close relationship was observed between percent parasitism and adult emergence. The increase in parasitoid densities increased the percent parasitism and adult emergence of the parasitoid. So, we conclude that an inter-specific competition negatively affected the efficacy of parasitoids and may reduce the fitness of the emerging parasitoid.

Keywords: Diaeretiella rapae, Parasitoid densities, Percent parasitism, adult emergence

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
4700 Characterization of Pure Nickel Coatings Fabricated under Pulse Current Conditions

Authors: M. Sajjadnejad, H. Omidvar, M. Javanbakht, A. Mozafari

Abstract:

Pure nickel coatings have been successfully electrodeposited on copper substrates by the pulse plating technique. The influence of current density, duty cycle and pulse frequency on the surface morphology, crystal orientation, and microhardness was determined. It was found that the crystallite size of the deposit increases with increasing current density and duty cycle. The crystal orientation progressively changed from a random texture at 1 A/dm2 to (200) texture at 10 A/dm2. Increasing pulse frequency resulted in increased texture coefficient and peak intensity of (111) reflection. An increase in duty cycle resulted in considerable increase in texture coefficient and peak intensity of (311) reflection. Coatings obtained at high current densities and duty cycles present a mixed morphology of small and large grains. Maximum microhardness of 193 Hv was achieved at 4 A/dm2, 10 Hz and duty cycle of 50%. Nickel coatings with (200) texture are ductile while (111) texture improves the microhardness of the coatings.

Keywords: current density, duty cycle, microstructure, nickel, pulse frequency

Procedia PDF Downloads 367
4699 Lowering Error Floors by Concatenation of Low-Density Parity-Check and Array Code

Authors: Cinna Soltanpur, Mohammad Ghamari, Behzad Momahed Heravi, Fatemeh Zare

Abstract:

Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes have been shown to deliver capacity approaching performance; however, problematic graphical structures (e.g. trapping sets) in the Tanner graph of some LDPC codes can cause high error floors in bit-error-ratio (BER) performance under conventional sum-product algorithm (SPA). This paper presents a serial concatenation scheme to avoid the trapping sets and to lower the error floors of LDPC code. The outer code in the proposed concatenation is the LDPC, and the inner code is a high rate array code. This approach applies an interactive hybrid process between the BCJR decoding for the array code and the SPA for the LDPC code together with bit-pinning and bit-flipping techniques. Margulis code of size (2640, 1320) has been used for the simulation and it has been shown that the proposed concatenation and decoding scheme can considerably improve the error floor performance with minimal rate loss.

Keywords: concatenated coding, low–density parity–check codes, array code, error floors

Procedia PDF Downloads 352
4698 The Effect of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene Cross-Contamination by Other Plastic Types on Bitumen Modification

Authors: Nioushasadat Haji Seyed Javadi, Ailar Hajimohammadi, Nasser Khalili

Abstract:

Currently, the recycling of plastic wastes has been the subject of much research attention, especially in pavement constructions, where virgin polymers can be replaced by recycled plastics for asphalt binder modification. Among the plastic types, recycled linear low-density polyethylene (RLLDPE) has been one of the common and largely available plastics for bitumen modification. However, it is important to note that during the recycling process, LLDPE can easily be contaminated with other plastic types, especially with low-density polyethylene (LDPE), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), and polypropylene (PP). The cross-contamination of LLDPE with other plastics lowers its quality and, consequently, can affect the asphalt modification process. This study aims to assess the effect of LLDPE cross-contamination on bitumen modification. To do so, samples of bitumen modified with LLDPE and blends of LLDPE with LDPE, HDPE, and PP were prepared and compared through physical and rheological evaluations. The experimental tests, including softening point, penetration, viscosity at 135 °C, and dynamic shear rheometer, were conducted. The results indicated that the effect of cross-contamination on softening point and rutting resistance was negligible. On the other side, penetration and viscosity were highly impacted. The results also showed that among contamination of LLDPE with the other plastic types, PP had the highest influence in comparison with HDPE and LDPE on changing the properties of the LLDPE- modified bitumen.

Keywords: recycled polyethylene, polymer cross-contamination, waste plastic, bitumen, rutting resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
4697 Influence of Physical Properties on Estimation of Mechanical Strength of Limestone

Authors: Khaled Benyounes

Abstract:

Determination of the rock mechanical properties such as unconfined compressive strength UCS, Young’s modulus E, and tensile strength by the Brazilian test Rtb is considered to be the most important component in drilling and mining engineering project. Research related to establishing correlation between strength and physical parameters of rocks has always been of interest to mining and reservoir engineering. For this, many rock blocks of limestone were collected from the quarry located in Meftah(Algeria), the cores were crafted in the laboratory using a core drill. This work examines the relationships between mechanical properties and some physical properties of limestone. Many empirical equations are established between UCS and physical properties of limestone (such as dry bulk density, velocity of P-waves, dynamic Young’s modulus, alteration index, and total porosity). Others correlations UCS-tensile strength, dynamic Young’s modulus-static Young’s modulus have been find. Based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, we were able to establish mathematical relationships that will allow estimating the cohesion and internal friction angle from UCS and indirect tensile strength. Results from this study can be useful for mining industry for resolve range of geomechanical problems such as slope stability.

Keywords: limestone, mechanical strength, Young’s modulus, porosity

Procedia PDF Downloads 452
4696 A Modified Estimating Equations in Derivation of the Causal Effect on the Survival Time with Time-Varying Covariates

Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

Abstract:

a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

Procedia PDF Downloads 175
4695 Structural and Electronic Properties of the Rock-salt BaxSr1−xS Alloys

Authors: B. Bahloul, K. Babesse, A. Dkhira, Y. Bahloul, L. Amirouche

Abstract:

Structural and electronic properties of the rock-salt BaxSr1−xS are calculated using the first-principles calculations based on the density functional theory (DFT) within the generalized gradient approximation (GGA), the local density approximation (LDA) and the virtual-crystal approximation (VCA). The calculated lattice parameters at equilibrium volume for x=0 and x=1 are in good agreement with the literature data. The BaxSr1−xS alloys are found to be an indirect band gap semiconductor. Moreoever, for the composition (x) ranging between [0-1], we think that our results are well discussed and well predicted.

Keywords: semiconductor, Ab initio calculations, rocksalt, band structure, BaxSr1−xS

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
4694 Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of Binder-free Trimetallic Phosphate Nanosheets

Authors: Iftikhar Hussain, Muhammad Ahmad, Xi Chen, Li Yuxiang

Abstract:

Transition metal phosphides and phosphates are newly emerged electrode material candidates in energy storage devices. For the first time, we report uniformly distributed, interconnected, and well-aligned two-dimensional nanosheets made from trimetallic Zn-Co-Ga phosphate (ZCGP) electrode materials with preserved crystal phase. It is found that the ZCGP electrode material exhibits about 2.85 and 1.66 times higher specific capacity than mono- and bimetallic phosphate electrode materials at the same current density. The trimetallic ZCGP electrode exhibits superior conductivity, lower internal resistance (IR) drop, and high Coulombic efficiency compared to mono- and bimetallic phosphate. The charge storage mechanism is studied for mono- bi- and trimetallic electrode materials, which illustrate the diffusion-dominated battery-type behavior. By means of density functional theory (DFT) calculations, ZCGP shows superior metallic conductivity due to the modified exchange splitting originating from 3d-orbitals of Co atoms in the presence of Zn and Ga. Moreover, a hybrid supercapacitor (ZCGP//rGO) device is engineered, which delivered a high energy density (ED) of 40 W h kg⁻¹ and a high-power density (PD) of 7,745 W kg⁻¹, lighting 5 different colors of light emitting diodes (LEDs). These outstanding results confirm the promising battery-type electrode materials for energy storage applications.

Keywords: trimetallic phosphate, nanosheets, DFT calculations, hybrid supercapacitor, binder-free, synergistic effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
4693 Modelling the Tensile Behavior of Plasma Sprayed Freestanding Yttria Stabilized Zirconia Coatings

Authors: Supriya Patibanda, Xiaopeng Gong, Krishna N. Jonnalagadda, Ralph Abrahams

Abstract:

Yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) is used as a top coat in thermal barrier coatings in high-temperature turbine/jet engine applications. The mechanical behaviour of YSZ depends on the microstructural features like crack density and porosity, which are a result of coating method. However, experimentally ascertaining their individual effect is difficult due to the inherent challenges involved like material synthesis and handling. The current work deals with the development of a phenomenological model to replicate the tensile behavior of air plasma sprayed YSZ obtained from experiments. Initially, uniaxial tensile experiments were performed on freestanding YSZ coatings of ~300 µm thick for different crack densities and porosities. The coatings exhibited a nonlinear behavior and also a huge variation in strength values. With the obtained experimental tensile curve as a base and crack density and porosity as prime variables, a phenomenological model was developed using ABAQUS interface with new user material defined employing VUMAT sub routine. The relation between the tensile stress and the crack density was empirically established. Further, a parametric study was carried out to investigate the effect of the individual features on the non-linearity in these coatings. This work enables to generate new coating designs by varying the key parameters and predicting the mechanical properties with the help of a simulation, thereby minimizing experiments.

Keywords: crack density, finite element method, plasma sprayed coatings, VUMAT

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
4692 Study of Ion Density Distribution and Sheath Thickness in Warm Electronegative Plasma

Authors: Rajat Dhawan, Hitendra K. Malik

Abstract:

Electronegative plasmas comprising electrons, positive ions, and negative ions are advantageous for their expanding applications in industries. In plasma cleaning, plasma etching, and plasma deposition process, electronegative plasmas are preferred because of relatively less potential developed on the surface of the material under investigation. Also, the presence of negative ions avoid the irregularity in etching shapes and also enhance the material working during the fabrication process. The interaction of metallic conducting surface with plasma becomes mandatory to understand these applications. A metallic conducting probe immersed in a plasma results in the formation of a thin layer of charged species around the probe called as a sheath. The density of the ions embedded on the surface of the material and the sheath thickness are the important parameters for the surface-plasma interaction. Sheath thickness will give rise to the information of affected plasma region due to conducting surface/probe. The knowledge of the density of ions in the sheath region is advantageous in plasma nitriding, and their temperature is equally important as it strongly influences the thickness of the modified layer during surface plasma interaction. In the present work, we considered a negatively biased metallic probe immersed in a warm electronegative plasma. For this system, we adopted the continuity equation and momentum transfer equation for both the positive and negative ions, whereas electrons are described by Boltzmann distribution. Finally, we use the Poisson’s equation. Here, we assumed the spherical geometry for small probe radius. Poisson’s equation reveals the behaviour of potential surrounding a conducting metallic probe along with the use of the continuity and momentum transfer equations, with the help of proper boundary conditions. In turn, it gives rise to the information about the density profile of charged species and most importantly the thickness of the sheath. By keeping in mind, the well-known Bohm-Sheath criterion, all calculations are done. We found that positive ion density decreases with an increase in positive ion temperature, whereas it increases with the higher temperature of the negative ions. Positive ion density decreases as we move away from the center of the probe and is found to show a discontinuity at a particular distance from the center of the probe. The distance where discontinuity occurs is designated as sheath edge, i.e., the point where sheath ends. These results are beneficial for industrial applications, as the density of ions embedded on material surface is strongly affected by the temperature of plasma species. It has a drastic influence on the surface properties, i.e., the hardness, corrosion resistance, etc. of the materials.

Keywords: electronegative plasmas, plasma surface interaction positive ion density, sheath thickness

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
4691 The Effects of Stand Density, Standards and Species Composition on Biomass Production in Traditional Coppices

Authors: Marek Mejstřík, Radim Matula, Martin Šrámek

Abstract:

Traditional coppices and coppice-with-standards were widely used throughout Europe and Asia for centuries but were largely abandoned in the second half of the 19th century, especially in central and northwestern Europe. In the last decades, there has been a renewed interest in traditional coppicing for nature conservation and most often, for rapid woody biomass production. However, there is little information on biomass productivity of traditional coppices and what affects it. Here, we focused on the effects of stand density, standards and tree species composition on sprout biomass production in newly restored coppices in the Czech Republic. We measured sprouts and calculated sprout biomass 7 years after the harvest from 2013 resprouting stumps in two 4 ha experimental plots. Each plot was divided into 64 subplots with different densities of standards and sprouting stumps. Total sprout biomass declined with increasing density of standards, but the effect of standards differed significantly among studied species. Whereas increasing density of standards decreased sprout biomass in Quercus petraea and Carpinus betulus, it did not affect sprout biomass productivity in Acer campestre and Tilia cordata. Sprout biomass on stand-level increased linearly with an increasing number of sprouting stumps and we observed no leveling of this relationship even in the highest densities of stumps. We also found a significant shift in tree species composition with the steeply declining relative abundance of Quercus in favor of other studied tree species.

Keywords: traditional coppice, coppice with standards, sprout biomass, forest management

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
4690 Estimation of Effective Mechanical Properties of Linear Elastic Materials with Voids Due to Volume and Surface Defects

Authors: Sergey A. Lurie, Yury O. Solyaev, Dmitry B. Volkov-Bogorodsky, Alexander V. Volkov

Abstract:

The media with voids is considered and the method of the analytical estimation of the effective mechanical properties in the theory of elastic materials with voids is proposed. The variational model of the porous media is discussed, which is based on the model of the media with fields of conserved dislocations. It is shown that this model is fully consistent with the known model of the linear elastic materials with voids. In the present work, the generalized model of the porous media is proposed in which the specific surface properties are associated with the field of defects-pores in the volume of the deformed body. Unlike typical surface elasticity model, the strain energy density of the considered model includes the special part of the surface energy with the quadratic form of the free distortion tensor. In the result, the non-classical boundary conditions take modified form of the balance equations of volume and surface stresses. The analytical approach is proposed in the present work which allows to receive the simple enough engineering estimations for effective characteristics of the media with free dilatation. In particular, the effective flexural modulus and Poisson's ratio are determined for the problem of a beam pure bending. Here, the known voids elasticity solution was expanded on the generalized model with the surface effects. Received results allow us to compare the deformed state of the porous beam with the equivalent classic beam to introduce effective bending rigidity. Obtained analytical expressions for the effective properties depend on the thickness of the beam as a parameter. It is shown that the flexural modulus of the porous beam is decreased with an increasing of its thickness and the effective Poisson's ratio of the porous beams can take negative values for the certain values of the model parameters. On the other hand, the effective shear modulus is constant under variation of all values of the non-classical model parameters. Solutions received for a beam pure bending and the hydrostatic loading of the porous media are compared. It is shown that an analytical estimation for the bulk modulus of the porous material under hydrostatic compression gives an asymptotic value for the effective bulk modulus of the porous beam in the case of beam thickness increasing. Additionally, it is shown that the scale effects appear due to the surface properties of the porous media. Obtained results allow us to offer the procedure of an experimental identification of the non-classical parameters in the theory of the linear elastic materials with voids based on the bending tests for samples with different thickness. Finally, the problem of implementation of the Saint-Venant hypothesis for the transverse stresses in the porous beam are discussed. These stresses are different from zero in the solution of the voids elasticity theory, but satisfy the integral equilibrium equations. In this work, the exact value of the introduced surface parameter was found, which provides the vanishing of the transverse stresses on the free surfaces of a beam.

Keywords: effective properties, scale effects, surface defects, voids elasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 417
4689 Disposable Coffee Cups Recycling

Authors: Sasan Mohammadi

Abstract:

Due to our passion for coffee, we use 16 billion throwaway coffee cups yearly. Coffee lovers throughout the globe have discovered the hard way that their paper cups are not recyclable, despite what coffee businesses have repeatedly assured them [1] A disposable, single-use coffee cup comprises a paper and polyethylene layer. Polyethylene is a typical material used to fill a coffee cup's inside to keep its structure and provide water and heat resistance. In addition, the polyethylene layer prevents recycling since it is difficult to separate the plastic liner from the paper layer [2]. In addition, owing to the plastic membrane lining many of these cups, they cannot be recycled and may take up to 30 years to biodegrade [3]. Most of researcher try to separate plastic part ,but it is not economical and easy.For this purposes,it is not yet happen. In our research we don't separate plastic, just we make a homogeneous pulp with cold water.then fix it in mold and dry it,after completely drying cycle we heated the product in 100 degree of centigrade this cause a sintering effect by plastic particle between paper fibers.This method increase 30 percent the strength of product.This product has a good sound proof and thermal isolation. This means we can use it as insulator.with low density we can control the the density by percentage of air solved in pulp.

Keywords: recycling, disposable coffee cup, insolator, low density

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
4688 Spatial Point Process Analysis of Dengue Fever in Tainan, Taiwan

Authors: Ya-Mei Chang

Abstract:

This research is intended to apply spatio-temporal point process methods to the dengue fever data in Tainan. The spatio-temporal intensity function of the dataset is assumed to be separable. The kernel estimation is a widely used approach to estimate intensity functions. The intensity function is very helpful to study the relation of the spatio-temporal point process and some covariates. The covariate effects might be nonlinear. An nonparametric smoothing estimator is used to detect the nonlinearity of the covariate effects. A fitted parametric model could describe the influence of the covariates to the dengue fever. The correlation between the data points is detected by the K-function. The result of this research could provide useful information to help the government or the stakeholders making decisions.

Keywords: dengue fever, spatial point process, kernel estimation, covariate effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
4687 Productivity of Grain Sorghum-Cowpea Intercropping System: Climate-Smart Approach

Authors: Mogale T. E., Ayisi K. K., Munjonji L., Kifle Y. G.

Abstract:

Grain sorghum and cowpea are important staple crops in many areas of South Africa, particularly the Limpopo Province. The two crops are produced under a wide range of unsustainable conventional methods, which reduces productivity in the long run. Climate-smart traditional methods such as intercropping can be adopted to ensure sustainable production of these important two crops in the province. A no-tillage field experiment was laid out in a randomised complete block design (RCBD) with four replications over two seasons in two distinct agro-ecological zones, Syferkuil and Ofcolacoin, the province to assess the productivity of sorghum-cowpea intercropped under two cowpea densities.LCi Ultra compact photosynthesis machine was used to collect photosynthetic rate data biweekly between 11h00 and 13h00 until physiological maturity. Biomass and grain yield of the component crops in binary and sole cultures were determined at harvest maturity from middle rows of 2.7 m2 area. The biomass was oven dried in the laboratory at 65oC till constant weight. To obtain grain yield, harvested sorghum heads and cowpea pods were threshed, cleaned, and weighed. Harvest index (HI) and land equivalent ratio (LER) of the two crops were calculated to assess intercrop productivity relative to sole cultures. Data was analysed using the statistical analysis software system (SAS) 9.4 version, followed by mean separation using the least significant difference method. The photosyntheticrate of sorghum-cowpea intercrop was influenced by cowpea density and sorghum cultivar. Photosynthetic rate under low density was higher compared to high density, but this was dependent on the growing conditions. Dry biomass accumulation, grain yield, and harvest index differed among the sorghum cultivars and cowpea in both binary and sole cultures at the two test locations during the 2018/19 and 2020/21 growing seasons. Cowpea grain and dry biomass yields werein excess of 60% under high density compared to low density in both binary and sole cultures. The results revealed that grain yield accumulation of sorghum cultivars was influenced by the density of the companion cowpea crop as well as the production season. For instant, at Syferkuil, Enforcer and Ns5511 accumulated high yield under low density, whereas, at Ofcolaco, the higher yield was recorded under high density. Generally, under low cowpea density, cultivar Enforcer produced relatively higher grain yield whereas, under higher density, Titan yield was superior. The partial and total LER varied with growing season and the treatments studied. The total LERs exceeded 1.0 at the two locations across seasons, ranging from 1.3 to 1.8. From the results, it can be concluded that resources were used more efficiently in sorghum-cowpea intercrop at both Syferkuil and Ofcolaco. Furthermore, intercropping system improved photosynthetic rate, grain yield, and dry matter accumulation of sorghum and cowpea depending on growing conditions and density of cowpea. Hence, the sorghum-cowpea intercropping system can be adopted as a climate-smart practice for sustainable production in the Limpopo province.

Keywords: cowpea, climate-smart, grain sorghum, intercropping

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
4686 Prediction of Positive Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Striking Zones for Charged Thundercloud Based on Line Charge Model

Authors: Surajit Das Barman, Rakibuzzaman Shah, Apurv Kumar

Abstract:

Bushfire is known as one of the ascendant factors to create pyrocumulus thundercloud that causes the ignition of new fires by pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) lightning strikes and creates major losses of lives and property worldwide. A conceptual model-based risk planning would be beneficial to predict the lightning striking zones on the surface of the earth underneath the pyroCb thundercloud. PyroCb thundercloud can generate both positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) and negative cloud-to-ground (-CG) lightning in which +CG tends to ignite more bushfires and cause massive damage to nature and infrastructure. In this paper, a simple line charge structured thundercloud model is constructed in 2-D coordinates using the method of image charge to predict the probable +CG lightning striking zones on the earth’s surface for two conceptual thundercloud charge configurations: titled dipole and conventional tripole structure with excessive lower positive charge regions that lead to producing +CG lightning. The electric potential and surface charge density along the earth’s surface for both structures via continuously adjusting the position and the charge density of their charge regions is investigated. Simulation results for tilted dipole structure confirm the down-shear extension of the upper positive charge region in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank by 4 to 8 km, resulting in negative surface density, and would expect +CG lightning to strike within 7.8 km to 20 km around the earth periphery in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank. On the other hand, the conceptual tripole charge structure with enhanced lower positive charge region develops negative surface charge density on the earth’s surface in the range |x| < 6.5 km beneath the thundercloud and highly favors producing +CG lightning strikes.

Keywords: pyrocumulonimbus, cloud-to-ground lightning, charge structure, surface charge density, forward flank

Procedia PDF Downloads 111