Search results for: signal prediction

Authors: Theoktisti Makridou, Konstantinos Tsaprailis, George Arvanitakis, Charalampos Kontoes

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In the literature, the data-driven approaches for mosquito abundance prediction relaying on supervised machine learning models that get trained with historical in-situ measurements. The counterpart of this approach is once the model gets trained on pointlevel (specific x,y coordinates) measurements, the predictions of the model refer again to point-level. These point-level predictions reduce the applicability of those solutions once a lot of early warning and mitigation actions applications need predictions for an area level, such as a municipality, village, etc... In this study, we apply a data-driven predictive model, which relies on public-open satellite Earth Observation and geospatial data and gets trained with historical point-level in-Situ measurements of mosquito abundance. Then we propose a methodology to extract information from a point-level predictive model to a broader area-level prediction. Our methodology relies on the randomly spatial sampling of the area of interest (similar to the Poisson hardcore process), obtaining the EO and geomorphological information for each sample, doing the point-wise prediction for each sample, and aggregating the predictions to represent the average mosquito abundance of the area. We quantify the performance of the transformation from the pointlevel to the area-level predictions, and we analyze it in order to understand which parameters have a positive or negative impact on it. The goal of this study is to propose a methodology that predicts the mosquito abundance of a given area by relying on point-level prediction and to provide qualitative insights regarding the expected performance of the area-level prediction. We applied our methodology to historical data (of Culex pipiens) of two areas of interest (Veneto region of Italy and Central Macedonia of Greece). In both cases, the results were consistent. The mean mosquito abundance of a given area can be estimated with similar accuracy to the point-level predictor, sometimes even better. The density of the samples that we use to represent one area has a positive effect on the performance in contrast to the actual number of sampling points which is not informative at all regarding the performance without the size of the area. Additionally, we saw that the distance between the sampling points and the real in-situ measurements that were used for training did not strongly affect the performance.

Keywords: mosquito abundance, supervised machine learning, culex pipiens, spatial sampling, west nile virus, earth observation data

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Authors: Ben Clapperton, Daniel Stahl, Kimberley Goldsmith, Trudie Chalder

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Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is a condition characterised by chronic disabling fatigue and other symptoms that currently can't be explained by any underlying medical condition. Although clinical trials support the effectiveness of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT), the success rate for individual patients is modest. Patients vary in their response and little is known which factors predict or moderate treatment outcomes. The aim of the project is to develop a prediction model from baseline characteristics of patients, such as demographics, clinical and psychological variables, which may predict likely treatment outcome and provide guidance for clinical decision making and help clinicians to recommend the best treatment. The project is aimed at identifying subgroups of patients with similar baseline characteristics that are predictive of treatment effects using modern cluster analyses and data mining machine learning algorithms. The characteristics of these groups will then be used to inform the types of individuals who benefit from a specific treatment. In addition, results will provide a better understanding of for whom the treatment works. The suitability of different clustering methods to identify subgroups and their response to different treatments of CFS patients is compared.

Keywords: chronic fatigue syndrome, latent class analysis, prediction modelling, self-organizing maps

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Authors: Joyraj Chakraborty, Geoffrey Ottoy, Jean-Pierre Goemaere, Lieven De Strycker

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Sensor swarms can be a cost-effectieve and more user-friendly alternative for location based service systems in different application like health-care. To increase the lifetime of such swarm networks, the energy consumption should be scaled to the required localization accuracy. In this paper we have investigated some parameter for energy model that couples localization accuracy to energy-related sensor parameters such as signal length,Bandwidth and sample frequency. The goal is to use the model for the localization of undetermined environmental sounds, by means of wireless acoustic sensors. we first give an overview of TDOA-based localization together with the primary sources of TDOA error (including reverberation effects, Noise). Then we show that in localization, the signal sample rate can be under the Nyquist frequency, provided that enough frequency components remain present in the undersampled signal. The resulting localization error is comparable with that of similar localization systems.

Keywords: sensor swarms, localization, wireless sensor swarms, scalable energy

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Authors: Bo Liu, Qingshan Kong, Weiqing Huang

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With the rapid development of modern communication, diagnosing the fiber-optic quality and faults in real-time is widely focused. In this paper, a Labview-based system is proposed for fiber-optic faults detection. The wavelet threshold denoising method combined with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to denoise the optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) signal. Then the method based on Gabor representation is used to detect events. Experimental measurements show that signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the OTDR signal is improved by 1.34dB on average, compared with using the wavelet threshold denosing method. The proposed system has a high score in event detection capability and accuracy. The maximum detectable fiber length of the proposed Labview-based system can be 65km.

Keywords: empirical mode decomposition, events detection, Gabor transform, optical time domain reflectometer, wavelet threshold denoising

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Authors: Abdelmadjid Mammeri, Fatima Zohra Mahi, Luca Varani, H. Marinchoi

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We propose an analytical model for the admittance and the noise calculations of the InGaAs transistor and diode. The development of the small-signal admittance takes into account the longitudinal and transverse electric fields through a pseudo two-dimensional approximation of the Poisson equation. The frequency-dependent of the small-signal admittance response is determined by the total currents and the potentials matrix relation between the gate and the drain terminals. The noise is evaluated by using the real part of the transistor/diode admittance under a small-signal perturbation. The analytical results show that the admittance spectrum exhibits a series of resonant peaks corresponding to the excitation of plasma waves. The appearance of the resonance is discussed and analyzed as functions of the channel length and the temperature. The model can be used, on one hand; to control the appearance of the plasma resonances, and on other hand; can give significant information about the noise frequency dependence in the InGaAs transistor and diode.

Keywords: InGaAs transistors, InGaAs diode, admittance, resonant peaks, plasma waves, analytical model

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Authors: Arabi Abderrazak, Bourouba Nacerdine, Ayad Mouloud, Belaout Abdeslam

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In this paper, a new test technique of analog circuits using time mode simulation is proposed for the single catastrophic faults detection in analog circuits. This test process is performed to overcome the problem of catastrophic faults being escaped in a DC mode test applied to the inverter amplifier in previous research works. The circuit under test is a second-order low pass filter constructed around this type of amplifier but performing a function that differs from that of the previous test. The test approach performed in this work is based on two key- elements where the first one concerns the unique square pulse signal selected as an input vector test signal to stimulate the fault effect at the circuit output response. The second element is the filter response conversion to a square pulses sequence obtained from an analog comparator. This signal conversion is achieved through a fixed reference threshold voltage of this comparison circuit. The measurement of the three first response signal pulses durations is regarded as fault effect detection parameter on one hand, and as a fault signature helping to hence fully establish an analog circuit fault diagnosis on another hand. The results obtained so far are very promising since the approach has lifted up the fault coverage ratio in both modes to over 90% and has revealed the harmful side of faults that has been masked in a DC mode test.

Keywords: analog circuits, analog faults diagnosis, catastrophic faults, fault detection

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Authors: Brahim Fares Zaidi

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Our work aims to improve our Automatic Recognition System for Dysarthria Speech based on the Hidden Models of Markov and the Hidden Markov Model Toolkit to help people who are sick. With pronunciation problems, we applied two techniques of speech parameterization based on Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients and Perceptual Linear Prediction and concatenated them with JITTER and SHIMMER coefficients in order to increase the recognition rate of a dysarthria speech. For our tests, we used the NEMOURS database that represents speakers with dysarthria and normal speakers.

Keywords: ARSDS, HTK, HMM, MFCC, PLP

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Authors: Cinthia Campoverde, Mateo Benavidez, Victor Arias, Milton Torres

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This article focuses on the 3D electromagnetic mapping of the intensity of the signal received by a mobile antenna within the open areas of the Department of Livestock of the Escuela Superior Politecnica de Chimborazo (ESPOCH), located in the city of Riobamba, Ecuador. The transmitting antenna belongs to the mobile telephone company ”TUENTI”, and is analyzed in the 2 GHz bands, operating at a frequency of 1940 MHz, using Long Term Evolution (LTE). Power signal strength data in the area were measured empirically using the ”Network Cell Info” application. A total of 170 samples were collected, distributed in 19 concentric circles around the base station. 3 campaigns were carried out at the same time, with similar traffic, and average values were obtained at each point, which varies between -65.33 dBm to -101.67 dBm. Also, the two virtualization software used are Sketchup and Unreal. Finally, the virtualized environment was visualized through virtual reality using Oculus 3D glasses, where the power levels are displayed according to a range of powers.

Keywords: reception power, LTE technology, virtualization, virtual reality, power levels

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: T. Bensana, S. Mekhilef

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The methodology of vibration based condition monitoring technology has been developing at a rapid stage in the recent years suiting to the maintenance of sophisticated and complicated machines. The ability of wavelet analysis to efficiently detect non-stationary, non-periodic, transient features of the vibration signal makes it a demanding tool for condition monitoring. This paper presents a methodology for fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings based on wavelet envelope power spectrum technique is analysed in both the time and frequency domains. In the time domain the auto-correlation of the wavelet de-noised signal is applied to evaluate the period of the fault pulses. However, in the frequency domain the wavelet envelope power spectrum has been used to identify the fault frequencies with the single sided complex Laplace wavelet as the mother wavelet function. Results show the superiority of the proposed method and its effectiveness in extracting fault features from the raw vibration signal.

Keywords: preventive maintenance, fault diagnostics, rolling element bearings, wavelet de-noising

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Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

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In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

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Authors: Fangtian Fan, Zhaoguo Liu, Yin Lu

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Early recurrence (ER) (< 1 year) after liver resection is one of the most important factors that impacts the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the molecular mechanisms and predictive indexes of ER after curative resection remain largely unknown. The present study aimed to exploit the role of EGFR signaling in EMT and early recurrence of HCC after curative resection and elucidate the molecular mechanisms. Our results showed that nuclear beta-catenin / PKM2 was a independent predictor of early recurrence after curative resection in EGFR-overexpressed HCC. Mechanistic investigation indicated that nuclear accumulation of beta-catenin and PKM2 induced by EGFR signal promoted HCC cell invasion and proliferation, which were required for early recurrence of HCC. These effects were mediated by PI3K/AKT and ERK pathways rather than the canonical Wnt signaling. In conclusions, EGFR signal induced-nuclear translocation of beta-catenin and PKM2 promotes HCC malignancy and indicates early recurrence after curative resection.

Keywords: beta-catenin, early recurrence, hepatocellular carcinoma, malignancy, PKM2

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Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

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The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study includes granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R²), Root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: national development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models

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Authors: Abdelghani Chahmi

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This article examines the detection and localization of faults in electrical systems, particularly those using asynchronous machines. First, the process of failure will be characterized, relevant symptoms will be defined and based on those processes and symptoms, a model of those malfunctions will be obtained. Second, the development of the diagnosis of the machine will be shown. As studies of malfunctions in electrical systems could only rely on a small amount of experimental data, it has been essential to provide ourselves with simulation tools which allowed us to characterize the faulty behavior. Fault detection uses signal processing techniques in known operating phases.

Keywords: induction motor, modeling, bearing damage, airgap eccentricity, torque variation

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Authors: Elda Maraj, Shkelqim Kuka

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Coronary heart disease causes many deaths in the world. Unfortunately, this problem will continue to increase in the future. In this paper, a fuzzy logic model to predict coronary heart disease is presented. This model has been developed with seven input variables and one output variable that was implemented for 30 patients in Albania. Here fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB is used. Fuzzy model inputs are considered as cholesterol, blood pressure, physical activity, age, BMI, smoking, and diabetes, whereas the output is the disease classification. The fuzzy sets and membership functions are chosen in an appropriate manner. Centroid method is used for defuzzification. The database is taken from University Hospital Center "Mother Teresa" in Tirana, Albania.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, fuzzy logic toolbox, membership function, prediction model

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Authors: Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

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Series of laboratory tests were carried out to study the extent of scour caused by a three-dimensional wall jets exiting from a square cross-section nozzle and into a non-cohesive sand beds. Previous observations have indicated that the effect of the tailwater depth was significant for densimetric Froude number greater than ten. However, the present results indicate that the cut off value could be lower depending on the value of grain size-to-nozzle width ratio. Numbers of equations are drawn out for a better scaling of numerous scour parameters. Also suggested the empirical prediction of scour to predict the scour centre line profile and plan view of scour profile at any particular time.

Keywords: densimetric froude number, jets, nozzle, sand, scour, tailwater, time

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Authors: Chandra Mukherjee

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The present paper is a representation of the work done in the field of ECG signal analysis using MATLAB 7.1 Platform. An accurate and simple ECG feature extraction algorithm is presented in this paper and developed algorithm is validated using BIOPAC software. To detect the QRS peak, ECG signal is processed by following mentioned stages- First Derivative, Second Derivative and then squaring of that second derivative. Efficiency of developed algorithm is tested on ECG samples from different database and real time ECG signals acquired using BIOPAC system. Firstly we have lead wise specified threshold value the samples above that value is marked and in the original signal, where these marked samples face change of slope are spotted as R-peak. On the left and right side of the R-peak, faces change of slope identified as Q and S peak, respectively. Now the inbuilt Detection algorithm of BIOPAC software is performed on same output sample and both outputs are compared. ECG baseline modulation correction is done after detecting characteristics points. The efficiency of the algorithm is tested using some validation parameters like Sensitivity, Positive Predictivity and we got satisfied value of these parameters.

Keywords: first derivative, variable threshold, slope reversal, baseline modulation correction

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Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

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This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

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Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance

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Authors: Julien Romieux, Fabio Verdicchio

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), which sense environmental data with battery-powered nodes, require multi-hop communication. This power-demanding task adds an extra workload that is unfairly distributed across the network. As a result, nodes run out of battery at different times: this requires an impractical individual node maintenance scheme. Therefore we investigate a new Cooperative Sensing approach that extends the WSN operational life and allows a more practical network maintenance scheme (where all nodes deplete their batteries almost at the same time). We propose a novel cooperative algorithm that derives a piecewise representation of the sensed signal while controlling approximation accuracy. Simulations show that our algorithm increases WSN operational life and spreads communication workload evenly. Results convey a counterintuitive conclusion: distributing workload fairly amongst nodes may not decrease the network power consumption and yet extend the WSN operational life. This is achieved as our cooperative approach decreases the workload of the most burdened cluster in the network.

Keywords: cooperative signal processing, signal representation and approximation, power management, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

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Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, fuzzy logic, power transformer, prediction

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Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

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The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

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Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen

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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination

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Authors: Henry Ogbemudia Omoregbee, Mabel Usunobun Olanipekun

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Debris fault diagnosis based on acoustic signals in rolling element bearing running at low speed and high radial loads are more of low amplitudes, particularly in the case of debris faults whose signals necessitate high sensitivity analyses. As the rollers in the bearing roll over debris trapped in grease used to lubricate the bearings, the envelope signal created by amplitude demodulation carries additional diagnostic information that is not available through ordinary spectrum analysis of the raw signal. The kurtosis value obtained for three different scenarios (debris induced, outer crack induced, and a normal good bearing) couldn't be used to easily identify whether the used bearings were defective or not. It was established in this work that the envelope spectrum analysis detected the fault signature and its harmonics induced in the debris bearings when bandpass filtering of the raw signal with the frequency band specified by kurtogram and spectral kurtosis was made.

Keywords: rolling bearings, rolling element bearing noise, bandpass filtering, harmonics, envelope spectrum analysis, spectral kurtosis

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Authors: Umar D. M., Aminu A. M., Izaddeen K. Y.

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Deployments of mini macrocell base stations also referred to as femtocells, improve the quality of service of indoor and outdoor users. Nevertheless, mobility management remains a key issue with regards to their deployment. This paper is leaned towards this issue, with an in-depth focus on the most important aspect of mobility management -handover. In handover management, making a handover decision in the LTE two-tier macrocell femtocell network is a crucial research area. Decision algorithms in this research are classified and comparatively analyzed according to received signal strength, user equipment speed, cost function, and interference. However, it was observed that most of the discussed decision algorithms fail to consider cell selection with hybrid access policy in a single macrocell multiple femtocell scenario, another observation was a majority of these algorithms lack the incorporation of user equipment residence parameter. Not including this parameter boosts the number of unnecessary handover occurrence. To deal with these issues, a sophisticated handover decision algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm considers the user’s velocity, received signal strength, residence time, as well as the femtocell base station’s access policy. Simulation results have shown that the proposed algorithm reduces the number of unnecessary handovers when compared to conventional received signal strength-based handover decision algorithm.

Keywords: user-equipment, radio signal service, long term evolution, mobility management, handoff

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

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In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Arunima Verma, Padmabati Mondal

Abstract:

Serotonin-receptor binding plays a key role in several neurological and biological processes, including mood, sleep, hunger, cognition, learning, and memory. In this article, we performed molecular dynamics simulation to examine the key residues that play an essential role in the binding of serotonin to the G-protein-coupled 5-HT₁ᴮ receptor (5-HT₁ᴮ R) via electrostatic interactions. An end-point free energy calculation method (MM-PBSA) determines the stability of the 5-HT1B R due to serotonin binding. The single-point mutation of the polar or charged amino acid residues (Asp129, Thr134) on the binding sites and the calculation of binding free energy validate the importance of these residues in the stability of the serotonin-receptor complex. Principal component analysis indicates the serotonin-bound 5-HT1BR is more stabilized than the apo-receptor in terms of dynamical changes. The difference dynamic cross-correlations map shows the correlation between the transmembrane and mini-Go, which indicates signal transduction happening between mini-Go and the receptor. Allosteric communication reveals the key nodes for signal transduction in 5-HT1BR. These results provide useful insights into the signal transduction pathways and mutagenesis study to regulate the functionality of the complex. The developed protocols can be applied to study local non-covalent interactions and long-range allosteric communications in any protein-ligand system for computer-aided drug design.

Keywords: allostery, CADD, MD simulations, MM-PBSA

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