Search results for: parametric estimators

Authors: Amir Jalalian-Khakshour, T. N. Croft

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Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) systems are becoming increasingly popular as they have a number of advantages over traditional wind turbines. The advantages are reliability, ease of transportation and manufacturing. These attributes could make these technologies useful in developing economies. The performance characteristics of a VAWT are different from a horizontal axis wind turbine, which can be attributed to the low tip speed ratio operation. To unlock the potential of these VAWT systems, the operational behaviour in a number of system topologies and environmental conditions needs to be understood. In this study, a non-linear dynamic simulation method was developed in Matlab and validated against in field data of a large scale, 8-meter rotor diameter prototype. This simulation method has been utilised to determine the performance characteristics of a number of control methods and system topologies. The motivation for this research was to develop a simulation method which accurately captures the operating behaviour and is computationally inexpensive. The model was used to evaluate the performance through parametric studies and optimisation techniques. The study gave useful insights into the applications and energy generation potential of this technology.

Keywords: power generation, renewable energy, rotordynamics, wind energy

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Authors: Faghihnia Torshizi Mostafa, Saitoh Masato

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An efficient method is developed for the response of a group of vertical, cylindrical fixed-head, finite length piles embedded in a homogeneous elastic stratum, subjected to harmonic force atop the pile group cap. Pile to pile interaction is represented through simplified beam-on-dynamic-Winkler-foundation (BDWF) with realistic frequency-dependent springs and dashpots. Pile group effect is considered through interaction factors. New closed-form expressions for interaction factors and curvature ratios atop the pile are extended by considering different boundary conditions at the tip of the piles (fixed, hinged). In order to investigate the fundamental characteristics of inertial bending strains in pile groups, inertial bending strains at the head of each pile are expressed in terms of slenderness ratio. The results of parametric study give valuable insight in understanding the behavior of fixed head pile groups in fundamental natural frequency of soil stratum.

Keywords: Winkler-foundation, fundamental frequency of soil stratum, normalized inertial bending strain, harmonic excitation

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Authors: Guohua Tu, Zhi Fu, Zhiwei Hu, Neil D Sandham, Jianqiang Chen

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Tripping of boundary-layers from laminar to turbulent flow, which may be necessary in specific practical applications, requires high amplitude disturbances to be introduced into the boundary layers without large drag penalties. As a possible improvement on fixed trip devices, a technique based on vortex shedding for enhancing supersonic flow transition is demonstrated in the present paper for a Mach 1.5 boundary layer. The compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved directly using a high-order (fifth-order in space and third-order in time) finite difference method for small-scale cylinders suspended transversely near the wall. For cylinders with proper diameter and mount location, asymmetry vortices shed within the boundary layer are capable of tripping laminar-turbulent transition. Full three-dimensional simulations showed that transition was enhanced. A parametric study of the size and mounting location of the cylinder is carried out to identify the most effective setup. It is also found that the vortex shedding can be suppressed by some factors such as wall effect.

Keywords: boundary layer instability, boundary layer transition, vortex shedding, supersonic flows, flow control

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Authors: Dharni Vasudhevan Venkatesan, K. E. Shanjay, H. Sujith Kumar, N. A. Abhilash, D. Aswin Ram, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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Numerical studies on race car aerodynamics at wing in ground effect have been carried out using a steady 3d, double precision, pressure-based, and standard k-epsilon turbulence model. Through various parametric analytical studies we have observed that at a particular speed and ground clearance of the wings a favorable negative lift was found high at a particular angle of attack for all the physical models considered in this paper. The fact is that if the ground clearance height to chord length (h/c) is too small, the developing boundary layers from either side (the ground and the lower surface of the wing) can interact, leading to an altered variation of the aerodynamic characteristics at wing in ground effect. Therefore a suitable ground clearance must be predicted throughout the racing for a better performance of the race car, which obviously depends upon the coupled effects of the topography, wing orientation with respect to the ground, the incoming flow features and/or the race car speed. We have concluded that for the design of high performance and high speed race cars the adjustable wings capable to alter the ground clearance and the angles of attack is the best design option for any race car for racing safely with variable speeds.

Keywords: external aerodynamics, external flow choking, race car aerodynamics, wing in ground effect

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Authors: Leili Esmaeilani, Jafar Ghaisari, Mohsen Ahmadian

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Hammerstein–Wiener model is a block-oriented model where a linear dynamic system is surrounded by two static nonlinearities at its input and output and could be used to model various processes. This paper contains an optimization approach method for analysing the problem of Hammerstein–Wiener systems identification. The method relies on reformulate the identification problem; solve it as constraint quadratic problem and analysing its solutions. During the formulation of the problem, effects of adding noise to both input and output signals of nonlinear blocks and disturbance to linear block, in the emerged equations are discussed. Additionally, the possible parametric form of matrix operations to reduce the equation size is presented. To analyse the possible solutions to the mentioned system of equations, a method to reduce the difference between the number of equations and number of unknown variables by formulate and importing existing knowledge about nonlinear functions is presented. Obtained equations are applied to an instance H–W system to validate the results and illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: identification, Hammerstein-Wiener, optimization, quantization

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: Ian McCulloh, Andrew Placona, Darren Stewart, Daniel Gause, Kevin Kiernan, Morgan Stuart, Christopher Zinner, Laura Cartwright

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An estimated 22-25% of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. As many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant

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Authors: Talal Alhajri, Mahmood M. Tahir, Khaled Alenezi, Mohamad Ragaee

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This work presents the experimental tests carried out to evaluate the behaviour of different types of shear connectors proposed for cold formed steel (CFS) section integrated with ferrocement slab as potential used for composite beam. Ten push-out test specimens of cold-formed steel lipped channel sections connected with ferrocement slab were tested. Three types of shear connectors were studied comprised of bolts, self-drilling-screw and bar angle. The connection behavior is analysed in terms of its load-slip relationship and the failure mode. The parametric studies were performed to investigate the effect on the shear connector’s capacity by varying the number of layers of wire mesh used in ferrocement slab and types of shear connector used. An analytical analysis using ANSYS program and theoretical analysis (Eurocode 4) were carried out to verify the experiment results. The results show that the experimental, theoretical, and numerical values proved to have good agreement with each other.

Keywords: cold-formed steel, composite beam, ferrocement, finite element method, push-out test, shear connector

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Authors: Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Swetha Priya Pisini

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Granular piles are becoming popular as a technique of deep ground improvement not only in soft cohesive soils but also in loose cohesionless deposits. The present experimental study has been carried out on granular piles in sand (loose sand and medium dense sand i.e. relative density at 15% and 30%) with geogrid reinforcement. In this experimental study, a group of five piles installed in sand (at different spacing i.e s = 2d, 3d and 4d) the length and diameter of the pile (L = 0.4 m and d= 50 mm) kept as same for all series of experiments. Geogrid reinforcement is provided on granular piles with a limited number of laboratory tests. It has been conducted in laboratory to study the behavior of a granular pile with reinforced geogrid layers supporting a square footing at different s/d ratios. The influence of geogrid layers providing on granular piles investigated through model tests. In this paper the experimental study carried out results in significant increase in load carrying capacity and decrease in settlement reduction of the weak cohesionless soil. Also, the behavior of load carrying capacity and settlement with changing the s/d ratio has been carried out through a parametric study.

Keywords: granular piles, cohesionless soil, geogrid reinforcement, load carrying capacity

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Authors: Anna Ouskova Leonteva, Michel Risser, Anne Jeannin-Girardon, Pierre Parrend, Pierre Collet

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This paper proposes an efficient optimization tool for an active magnetic regenerator (AMR) model, operating in two modes: magnetic refrigeration system (MRS) and thermo-magnetic generator (TMG). The aim of this optimizer is to improve the design of the AMR by applying a multi-physics multi-scales numerical model as a core of evaluation functions to achieve industrial requirements for refrigeration and energy conservation systems. Based on the multi-objective non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm 3 (NSGA3), it maximizes four different objectives: efficiency and power density for MRS and TMG. The main contribution of this work is in the simultaneously application of a CPU-parallel NSGA3 version to the AMR model in both modes for studying impact of control and design parameters on the performance. The parametric study of the optimization results are presented. The main conclusion is that the common (for TMG and MRS modes) optimal parameters can be found by the proposed tool.

Keywords: ecological refrigeration systems, active magnetic regenerator, thermo-magnetic generator, multi-objective evolutionary optimization, industrial optimization problem, real-world application

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Authors: Hakan Ozturk, Aydin Demir, Kemal Edip, Marta Stojmanovska, Julijana Bojadjieva

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There are many factors that affect the behavior of reinforced concrete beams. These can be listed as concrete compressive and reinforcement yield strength, amount of tension, compression and confinement bars, and strain hardening of reinforcement. In the study, support condition of short beams is selected statically indeterminate to first degree. Experimental and numerical analysis are carried for reinforcement concrete (RC) short beams. Dimensions of cross sections are selected as 250mm width and 500 mm height. The length of RC short beams is designed as 2250 mm and these values are constant in all beams. After verifying accurately finite element model, a numerical parametric study is performed with varied diameter of tension reinforcement. Effect of change in diameter is investigated on behavior of RC short beams. As a result of the study, ductility ratios and failure modes are determined, and load-displacement graphs are obtained in order to understand the behavior of short beams. It is deduced that diameter of tension reinforcement plays very important role on the behavior of RC short beams in terms of ductility and brittleness.

Keywords: short beam, reinforced concrete, finite element analysis, longitudinal reinforcement

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Authors: Ioanna Pagoni, Annitsa Koumoutsidi

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The aim of this paper is to estimate the efficiency of airports that are located in touristic regions. It focuses on the regional airports of Greece, which are located at the mainland and the islands that constitute touristic destinations. Most of these airports share the following characteristics. They operate at levels below capacity with a high level of seasonality to their traffic. In addition, in such airports, the operation of charter and low-cost airlines is significant. The efficiency of the study airports is calculated by using the non-parametric data envelopment analysis during the period of 2010-2016. The selected inputs include several airport infrastructure measures such as passenger terminal size, aircraft parking area, runway length, and the number of check-in counters, while the number of employees in each airport is also used. The number of passengers and aircraft movements are selected as outputs. The effect of seasonality, as well as the operation of charter airlines and low-cost carriers on airport efficiency, is estimated by running proper regression models. Preliminary findings indicate that low-cost and charter airlines contribute to increasing airport efficiency for most of the study airports. The results of this research could be useful for airlines, airport operators, hotel businesses, and other tourism-related operators.

Keywords: airport efficiency, data envelopment analysis, low-cost carriers, charter airlines, seasonality

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Authors: S. Matour, M. Mahdavinejad, R. Fayaz

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Daylight utilization is a key factor in achieving visual and thermal comfort, and energy savings in integrated building design. However, lack of measured data related to this topic has become a major challenge with the increasing need for integrating lighting concepts and simulations in the early stages of design procedures. The current paper deals with the values of daylight illuminance on horizontal and south facing vertical surfaces; the data are estimated using IESNA model and measured values of the horizontal and vertical illuminance, and a regression model with an acceptable linear correlation is obtained. The resultant illuminance frequency curves are useful for estimating daylight availability on south facing surfaces in Tehran. In addition, the relationship between indirect vertical illuminance and the corresponding global horizontal illuminance is analyzed. A simple parametric equation is proposed in order to predict the vertical illumination on a shaded south facing surface. The equation correlates the ratio between the vertical and horizontal illuminance to the solar altitude and is used with another relationship for prediction of the vertical illuminance. Both equations show good agreement, which allows for calculation of indirect vertical illuminance on a south facing surface at any time throughout the year.

Keywords: Tehran daylight availability, horizontal illuminance, vertical illuminance, diffuse illuminance

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Authors: Marcela Parra-Vargas, Ana Sandoval-Rodriguez, Roberto Rodriguez-Echevarria, Jose Dominguez-Rosales, Juan Armendariz-Borunda

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Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by an excess of hepatic lipids, and it is to author’s best knowledge, the most prevalent chronic liver disorder. Anthocyanin-rich food consumption is linked to health benefits in metabolic disorders associated with obesity and NAFLD, although the precise functional role of anthocyanidin delphinidin (Dp) has yet to be established. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the Dp in NAFLD metabolic alterations by evaluating prevention or amelioration of hepatic lipid accumulation, as well as molecular mechanisms in two experimental obesity-related models of NALFD. In vitro: HepG2 cells were incubated with sodium palmitate (PA, 1 mM) to induce lipotoxic damage, and concomitantly treated with Dp (180 uM) for 24 h. Subsequently, total lipid accumulation was measured by colorimetric staining with Oil Red O, and total intrahepatic triglycerides were determined by an enzymatic assay. To assess molecular mechanisms, cells were pre-treated with PA for 24 h and then exposed to Dp for 1 h. In vivo: four-week-old male C57BL/6Nhsd mice were allocated in two main groups. Mice were fed with standard diet (control) or high-fat and high-carbohydrate diet (45% fat, HFD) for 16 wk to induce NAFLD. Then HFD was divided into subgroups: one treated orally with Dp (15 mg/kg bw, HFD-Dp) every day for 4 wk, while HFD group treated with vehicle (DMSO). Weight and fasting glucose were recorded weekly, while dietary ingestion was measured daily. Insulin tolerance test was performed at the end of treatment. Liver histology was evaluated with H&E and Masson’s trichrome stain. RT-PCR was used to evaluate gene expression and Western Blot to determine levels of protein in both experimental models. Parametric data were analyzed with one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s post-hoc test. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U test for non-parametric data, and P < 0.5 were considered significant. Dp prevented hepatic lipid accumulation by PA in HepG2 hepatocytes. Furthermore, Dp down-regulated gene expression of SREBP1c, FAS, and CPT1a without modifying AMPK phosphorylation levels. In vivo, Dp oral administration did not ameliorate lipid metabolic alterations raised by HFD. Adiposity, dietary ingestion, fasting glucose, and insulin sensitivity after Dp treatment remained similar to HFD group. Histological analysis showed hepatic damage in HFD groups and no differences between HFD and HFD-Dp groups were found. Hepatic gene expression of ACC and FAS were not altered by HFD. SREBP1c was similar in both HFD and HFD-Dp groups. No significant changes were observed in SREBP1c, ACC, and FAS adipose tissue gene expression by HFD or Dp treatment. Additionally, immunoblotting analysis revealed no changes in pathway SIRT1-LKB-AMPK and PPAR alpha by both HFD groups compared to control. In conclusion, the antioxidant Dp may provoke beneficial effects in the prevention of hepatic lipid accumulation. Nevertheless, the oral dose administrated in mice that simulated the total intake of anthocyanins consumed daily by humans has no effect as a treatment on hepatic lipid metabolic alterations and histological abnormalities associated with exposure to chronic HFD. A healthy lifestyle with regular intake of antioxidants such as anthocyanins may prevent metabolic alterations in NAFLD.

Keywords: anthocyanins, antioxidants, delphinidin, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, obesity

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Authors: Alireza Keshmiri, Shahriar Bagheri, Nan Wu

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This research presents an analytical model for the development of an energy harvester with piezoelectric rings stacked at the boundary of the structure based on the Adomian decomposition method. The model is applied to geometrically non-uniform beams to derive the steady-state dynamic response of the structure subjected to base motion excitation and efficiently harvest the subsequent vibrational energy. The in-plane polarization of the piezoelectric rings is employed to enhance the electrical power output. A parametric study for the proposed energy harvester with various design parameters is done to prepare the dataset required for optimization. Finally, simulation-based optimization technique helps to find the optimum structural design with maximum efficiency. To solve the optimization problem, an artificial neural network is first trained to replace the simulation model, and then, a genetic algorithm is employed to find the optimized design variables. Higher geometrical non-uniformity and length of the beam lowers the structure natural frequency and generates a larger power output.

Keywords: piezoelectricity, energy harvesting, simulation-based optimization, artificial neural network, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Howard Gomwe, Eunice Seekoe

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There is arguably dearth of literature regarding body physical fitness and body composition amongst primary schools in South Africa. For this reason, the study is aimed at investigating and accessing how body composition relates to physical fitness amongst learners between 9 – 14 years of age in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. In order to achieve this, a school-based cross-sectional survey was carried out among 876 primary school learners aged 9 to14 years. Body composition indicators were measured and/or calculated, whilst physical fitness was evaluated by a 20 m shuttle run, push-ups, sit and reach as well as sit-ups, according to the EUROFIT fitness standards. Out of 876 participants, a total of 870 were retained. Of these, 351 (40.34%) were boys and 519 (59.66%) were girls. The average age of learners was 11.04 ± 1.50 years, with boys having a importantly (p = 0.002) higher average age (M = 11.24; SD = 1.51 years) as compared to that of girls (M = 10.91; SD = 1.48 years). The non-parametric Spearman Rho correlation coefficients revealed several significant and negative relationships between body composition measurements with physical fitness characteristics, which were stronger in girls than in boys. The findings advocate for policy makers and responsible authorities to initiate the development of policies and interventions targeted at encouraging physical activity and healthy promotion among primary school learners in South Africa, especially in girls.

Keywords: BMI, body composition, physical fitness, children

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Authors: Sandeep Kumar, Mahesh Kumar Jat, Rajib Sarkar

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Soil reinforced with randomly distributed fibers is an attractive means to improve the performance of soil in a cost effective manner. Static and dynamic characterization of fiber reinforced soil have become important to evaluate adequate performance for all classes of geotechnical engineering problems. Present study investigates the behaviour of fiber reinforced cohesionless soil through numerical simulation of triaxial specimen. The numerical model has been validated with the existing literature of laboratory triaxial compression testing. A parametric study has been done to find out optimum fiber content for shear resistance. Cyclic triaxial testing has been simulated and the stress-strain response of fiber-reinforced sand has been examined considering different combination of fiber contents. Shear modulus values and damping values of fiber-reinforced sand are evaluated. It has been observed from results that for 1.0 percent fiber content shear modulus increased 2.28 times and damping ratio decreased 4.6 times. The influence of amplitude of cyclic strain, confining pressure and frequency of loading on the dynamic properties of fiber reinforced sand has been investigated and presented.

Keywords: damping, fiber reinforced soil, numerical modelling, shear modulus

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Authors: Shashank Mukkoti, Mainak Majumder, Srinivasan Venkatraman

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Owing to the land scarcity in the modern-day, most of the construction activities are carried out closed to the existing buildings. Most of the high-rise buildings are constructed on pile foundations to transfer the design loads to a strong stratum below the ground surface. Due to the proximity of the new and existing structures, noise disturbances are prominent during the pile installation. Installation of vibratory piles is most suitable in urban areas. The ground vibrations developed due to the vibratory pile driving may cause many detrimental effects on the surrounding structures based on the proximity of the sources and nature of the structures. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the severity of ground vibrations induced by vibratory pile driving. For this purpose, a three-dimensional finite element model has been developed in the ABAQUS/ Explicit finite element program. The couple finite/infinite element method has been employed for the capturing of propagating waves due to the pile installation. The geometry of the pile foundations, frequency of the pile driving, length of the pile has been considered for the parametric study. The results show that vibrations generated due to the vibratory pile installation are either very close or more than the thresholds tolerance limits set by different guidelines.

Keywords: FE model, pile driving, free field vibrations, wave propagation

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Authors: Harshavardhan Reddy, Balaji Subramanian

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A systematic parametric study to find the optimum bellmouth profile by relating geometric and performance parameters to satisfy a set of specifications is reported. A careful aerodynamic design of bellmouth intake is critical to properly direct the flow with minimal losses and maximal flow uniformity into the honeycomb located inside the settling chamber of an indraft wind tunnel, thus improving the efficiency of the entire unit. Design charts for elliptically profiled bellmouths with two different contraction ratios (9 and 18) and three different test section speeds (25 m/s, 50 m/s, and 75 m/s) were presented. A significant performance improvement - especially in the Coefficient of discharge and in the flow angularity and boundary layer thickness at the honeycomb inlet - was observed when an entry corner radius (r/D = 0.08) was added to the bellmouth profile. The nonuniformity at the honeycomb inlet drops by about three times (~1% to 0.3%) when moving from square to regular octagonal cross-section. An octagonal cross-sectioned bellmouth intake with L/d = 0.55, D/d = 1.625, and r/D = 0.08 met all the four target performance specifications and is proposed as the best choice for a low-speed wind tunnel.

Keywords: bellmouth intake, low-speed wind tunnel, coefficient of discharge, nonuniformity, flow angularity, boundary layer thickness, CFD, aerodynamics

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Authors: Mehrnaz Alibeikloo, Hadi Khabbaz, Behzad Fatahi

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The spectral random field method is one of the widely used methods to obtain more reliable and accurate results in geotechnical problems involving material variability. Karhunen-Loeve (K-L) expansion method was applied to perform random field discretization of cross-correlated creep parameters. Karhunen-Loeve expansion method is based on eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of covariance function adopting Kernel integral solution. In this paper, the accuracy of Karhunen-Loeve expansion was investigated to predict long-term settlement of soft soils adopting elastic visco-plastic creep model. For this purpose, a parametric study was carried to evaluate the effect of K-L expansion terms and spatial correlation length on the reliability of results. The results indicate that small values of spatial correlation length require more K-L expansion terms. Moreover, by increasing spatial correlation length, the coefficient of variation (COV) of creep settlement increases, confirming more conservative and safer prediction.

Keywords: Karhunen-Loeve expansion, long-term settlement, reliability analysis, spatial correlation length

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Authors: Anandita Mitro, Archana Srivastava, Bidisha Banerjee

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The present paper attempts to analyze the hierarchy and interconnection of factors responsible for the uptake of BCG vaccination in India. The study uses National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data which was conducted during 2019-21. The univariate logistic regression method is used to understand the univariate effects while the interconnection effects have been studied using the Categorical Inference Tree (CIT) which is a non-parametric Machine Learning (ML) model. The hierarchy of the factors is further established using Conditional Inference Forest which is an extension of the CIT approach. The results suggest that BCG vaccination coverage was influenced more by system-level factors and awareness than education or socio-economic status. Factors such as place of delivery, antenatal care, and postnatal care were crucial, with variations based on delivery location. Region-specific differences were also observed which could be explained by the factors. Awareness of the disease was less impactful along with the factor of wealth and urban or rural residence, although awareness did appear to substitute for inadequate ANC. Thus, from the policy point of view, it is revealed that certain subpopulations have less prevalence of vaccination which implies that there is a need for population-specific policy action to achieve a hundred percent coverage.

Keywords: vaccination, NFHS, machine learning, public health

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Authors: Adel Gurel, Ozge Ceylin Yildirim

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Nowadays, design and architecture are being affected and underwent change with the rapid advancements in technology, economics, politics, society and culture. Architecture has been transforming with the latest developments after the inclusion of computers into design. Integration of design into the computational environment has revolutionized the architecture and new perspectives in architecture have been gained. The history of architecture shows the various technological developments and changes in which the architecture has transformed with time. Therefore, the analysis of integration between technology and the history of the architectural process makes it possible to build a consensus on the idea of how architecture is to proceed. In this study, each period that occurs with the integration of technology into architecture is addressed within historical process. At the same time, changes in architecture via technology are identified as important milestones and predictions with regards to the future of architecture have been determined. Developments and changes in technology and the use of technology in architecture within years are analyzed in charts and graphs comparatively. The historical process of architecture and its transformation via technology are supported with detailed literature review and they are consolidated with the examination of focal points of 20th-century architecture under the titles; parametric design, genetic architecture, simulation, and biomimicry. It is concluded that with the historical research between past and present; the developments in architecture cannot keep up with the advancements in technology and recent developments in technology overshadow the architecture, even the technology decides the direction of architecture. As a result, a scenario is presented with regards to the reach of technology in the future of architecture and the role of the architect.

Keywords: computer technologies, future architecture, scientific developments, transformation

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Authors: E. Manikandan, C. Chilambarasan, M. Sulthan Ariff Rahman, S. Kanagaraj, Abhimanyu Pugazhandhi, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The designer of any flying car has the major concern on the creation of upward force with low takeoff velocity, with minimum drag, coupled with better stability and control warranting its overall high performance both in road and air. In this paper, 3D numerical simulations of external flow of a Ferrari F430 fitted with different NACA series rectangular wings have been carried out for finding the best aerodynamic design option in road and air. The principle that allows a car to rise off the ground by creating lift using deployable wings with desirable lifting characteristics is the main theme of our paper. Additionally, the car body is streamlined in accordance with the speed range. Further, the rounded and tapered shape of the top of the car is designed to slice through the air and minimize the wind resistance. The 3D SST k-ω turbulence model has been used for capturing the intrinsic flow physics during the take off phase. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations is employed. Through the detailed parametric analytical studies, we have conjectured that Ferrari F430 can be converted into a lucrative flying car with best fit NACA wing through a proper aerodynamic design optimization.

Keywords: aerodynamics of flying car, air taxi, Ferrari F430, roadable airplane

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Authors: Mohammed Cherifi, Abderrahmane Benbrik, Siham Laouar-Meftah, Denis Lemonnier

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The present study was conducted to numerically investigate the interaction of non-gray-gas radiation with opposed mixed convection in a vertical two-sided lid-driven square cavity. The opposing flows are simultaneously generated by the vertical boundary walls which slide at a constant speed and the natural convection due to the gradient temperature of differentially heated cavity. The horizontal walls are thermally insulated and perfectly reflective. The enclosure is filled with air-H2O-CO2 gas mixture, which is considered as a non-gray, absorbing, emitting and not scattering medium. The governing differential equations are solved by a finite-volume method, by adopting the SIMPLER algorithm for pressure–velocity coupling. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) is solved by the discrete ordinates method (DOM). The spectral line weighted sum of gray gases model (SLW) is used to account for non-gray radiation properties. Three cases of the effects of radiation (transparent, gray and non-gray medium) are studied. Comparison is also made with the parametric studies of the effect of the mixed convection parameter, Ri (0.1, 1, 10), on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been performed.

Keywords: opposed mixed convection, non-gray-gas radiation, two-sided lid-driven cavity, discrete ordinate method, SLW model

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Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Walid El Kamash

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Sand columns (or granular piles) can be employed as soil strengthening for flexible constructions such as road embankments, oil storage tanks in addition to multistory structures. The challenge of embedding the sand columns in soft soil is that the surrounding soft soil cannot avail the enough confinement stress in order to keep the form of the sand column. Therefore, the sand columns which were installed in such soil will lose their ability to perform needed load-bearing capacity. The encasement, besides increasing the strength and stiffness of the sand column, prevents the lateral squeezing of sands when the column is installed even in extremely soft soils, thus enabling quicker and more economical installation. This paper investigates the improvement in load capacity of the sand column by encasement through a comprehensive parametric study using the 3-D finite difference analysis for the soft clay of soil in Egypt. Moreover, the study was extended to include a comparison study between encased sand column and Deep Mixed columns (DM). The study showed that confining the sand by geosynthetic resulted in an increment of shear strength. That result paid the attention to use encased sand stone rather than deep mixed columns due to relative high permeability of the first material.

Keywords: encased sand column, Deep mixed column, numerical analysis, improving soft soil

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Authors: Mansour Mohieddin Ghomshei, Reza Shahi

Abstract:

Laminated composite tubes with adhesively bonded joints are widely used in aerospace and automotive industries as well as oil and gas industries. In this research, adhesively tubular single lap joints subjected to torsional and hygrothermal loadings are studied using the differential quadrature method (DQM). The analysis is based on the classical shell theory. At first, an approximate closed form solution is developed by omitting the lateral deflections in the connecting tubes. Using the analytical model, the circumferential displacements in tubes and the shear stresses in the interfacing adhesive layer are determined. Then, a numerical formulation is presented using DQM in which the lateral deflections are taken into account. By using the DQM formulation, the circumferential and radial displacements in tubes as well as shear and peel stresses in the adhesive layer are calculated. Results obtained from the proposed DQM solutions are compared well with those of the approximate analytical model and those of some published references. Finally using the DQM model, parametric studies are carried out to investigate the influence of various parameters such as adhesive layer thickness, torsional loading, overlap length, tubes radii, relative humidity, and temperature.

Keywords: adhesively bonded joint, differential quadrature method (DQM), hygrothermal, laminated composite tube

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Authors: Hooman Dabirmanesh, Mahmoud Ghazavi, Kazem Barkhordari

Abstract:

A finite element modeling for determination of the bearing capacity of caissons subjected to inclined loads is presented in this paper. The model investigates the uplift capacity of the caisson with varying cross sectional area. To this aim, the behavior of the soil is assumed to be elasto-plastic, and its failure is controlled by Modified Cam-Clay failure criterion. The simulation takes into account the couple analysis. The approach is verified using available data from other research work especially centrifuge data. Parametric studies are subsequently performed to investigate the effect of contributing parameters such as aspect ratio of the caisson, the loading rate, the loading direction angle, and points where the external load is applied. In addition, the influence of the caisson geometry is taken into account. The results show the bearing capacity of the caisson increases with increasing the taper angle. Hence, the pullout capacity will increase using the same material. In addition, the bearing capacity of caissons strongly depends on the suction that is generated at tip and in sealed surface on top of caisson. Other results concerning the influencing factors will be presented.

Keywords: aspect ratio, finite element method, inclined load, modified Cam clay, taper angle, undrained condition

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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Authors: Feby Zaki Raouf Fawzy

Abstract:

Nowadays, design and architecture are being affected and undergoing change with the rapid advancements in technology, economics, politics, society, and culture. Architecture has been transforming with the latest developments after the inclusion of computers in design. Integration of design into the computational environment has revolutionized architecture and unique perspectives in architecture have been gained. The history of architecture shows the various technological developments and changes in which architecture has transformed with time. Therefore, the analysis of integration between technology and the history of the architectural process makes it possible to build a consensus on the idea of how architecture is to proceed. In this study, each period that occurs with the integration of technology into architecture is addressed within the historical process. At the same time, changes in architecture via technology are identified as important milestones and predictions with regards to the future of architecture have been determined. Developments and changes in technology and the use of technology in architecture within years are analyzed in charts and graphs comparatively. The historical process of architecture and its transformation via technology is supported by a detailed literature review, and they are consolidated with the examination of focal points of 20th-century architecture under the titles parametric design, genetic architecture, simulation, and biomimicry. It is concluded that with the historical research between past and present, the developments in architecture cannot keep up with the advancements in technology, and recent developments in technology overshadow architecture; even technology decides the direction of architecture. As a result, a scenario is presented with regard to the reach of technology in the future of architecture and the role of the architect.

Keywords: design and development the information technology architecture, enterprise architecture, enterprise architecture design result, TOGAF architecture development method (ADM)

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