Search results for: high risk youth

Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Christopher G. Harris, Guy D. Eslick

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Purpose: Lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is a known risk factor for breast cancer of unclear significance when detected in association with invasive carcinoma. This meta-analysis aims to determine the impact of LCIS on local recurrence risk for individuals with breast cancer treated with breast conservation therapy to help guide appropriate treatment strategies. Methods: We identified relevant studies from five electronic databases. Studies were deemed suitable for inclusion where they compared patients with invasive breast cancer and concurrent LCIS to those with breast cancer alone, all patients underwent breast conservation therapy (lumpectomy with adjuvant radiation therapy), and local recurrence was evaluated. Recurrence data were pooled by use of a random effects model. Results: From 1488 citations screened by our search, 8 studies were deemed suitable for inclusion. These studies comprised of 908 cases and 10638 controls. Median follow-up time was 90 months. There was a significantly increased overall risk of local breast cancer recurrence for individuals with LCIS in association with breast cancer following breast conservation therapy [pOR 1.87; 95% CI 1.14-3.04; p = 0.012]. The risk of local recurrence was non-significantly increased at 5 [pOR 1.09; 95% CI 0.48-2.48; p = 0.828] and 10 years [pOR 1.90; 95% CI 0.89-4.06; p = 0.096]. Conclusions: Individuals with LCIS in association with invasive breast cancer have an increased risk of local recurrence following breast conservation therapy. This supports consideration of aggressive local control of LCIS by way of completion mastectomy or re-excision for certain high-risk patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, breast conservation therapy, lobular carcinoma in situ, lobular neoplasia, local recurrence, meta-analysis

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Authors: V. A. Ritchie

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The loss of life and livelihood experienced after the magnitude 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004 and magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011, has raised global awareness and brought tsunami phenomenology, nomenclature, and representation into sharp focus. At the same time, travel and tourism continue to increase, contributing around 1 in 11 jobs worldwide. This increase in tourism is especially true for coastal zones, placing pressure on decision-makers to downplay tsunami risks and at the same time provide adequate tsunami warning so that holidaymakers will feel confident enough to visit places of high tsunami risk. This study investigates how well tsunami preparedness messages are getting through for tourist-based businesses in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand, a region of frequent seismic activity and a high probability of experiencing a nearshore tsunami. The aim of this study is to investigate whether tourists based businesses are well informed about tsunamis, how well they understand that information and to what extent their clients are included in awareness raising and evacuation processes. In high-risk tsunami zones, such as Hawke’s Bay, tourism based businesses face competitive tension between short term business profitability and longer term reputational issues related to preventable loss of life from natural hazards, such as tsunamis. This study will address ways to accommodate culturally and linguistically relevant tourist awareness measures without discouraging tourists or being too costly to implement.

Keywords: tsunami risk and response, travel and tourism, business preparedness, cross cultural knowledge transfer

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

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Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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Authors: Khushboo Shah

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Categorical bans on the death penalty and life-without-parole sentences for juvenile offenders in a growing number of countries have established a new era in juvenile jurisprudence. This has been brought about by integration of the growing knowledge in cognitive neuroscience and appreciation of the inherent differences between adults and adolescents over the last ten years. This evolving understanding of being a child in the criminal system can be aptly reflected through policies that incorporate the mitigating traits of youth. First, the presentation will delineate the structures in cognitive neuroscience and in particular, focus on the prefrontal cortex, the amygdala, and the basal ganglia. These key anatomical structures in the brain are linked to three mitigating adolescent traits—an underdeveloped sense of responsibility, an increased vulnerability to negative influences, and transitory personality traits—that establish why juveniles have a lessened culpability. The discussion will delve into the details depicting how an underdeveloped prefrontal cortex results in the heightened emotional angst, high-energy and risky behavior characteristic of the adolescent time period or how the amygdala, the emotional center of the brain, governs different emotional expression resulting in why teens are susceptible to negative influences. Based on this greater understanding, it is incumbent that policies adequately reflect the adolescent physiology and psychology in the criminal system. However, it is important to ensure that these views are appropriately weighted while considering the jurisprudence for the treatment of children in the law. To ensure this balance is appropriately stricken, policies must incorporate the distinctive traits of youth in sentencing and legal considerations and yet refrain from the potential fallacies of absolving a juvenile offender of guilt and culpability. Accordingly, three policies will demonstrate how these results can be achieved: (1) eliminate housing of juvenile offenders in the adult prison system, (2) mandate fitness hearings for all transfers of juveniles to adult criminal court, and (3) use the post-disposition review as a type of rehabilitation method for juvenile offenders. Ultimately, this interdisciplinary approach of science and law allows for a better understanding of adolescent psychological and social functioning and can effectuate better legal outcomes for juveniles tried as adults.

Keywords: criminal law, Juvenile Justice, interdisciplinary, neuroscience

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Sunday Ose Ugadu

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Unemployment, especially graduate unemployment is, for now, the greatest problem facing Nigeria as a nation. It is responsible for most of the other ills of the country, including kidnapping, armed robbery, youth restiveness, thuggery, to mention but a few. More and more people in Nigeria are now losing confidence in the prospect of tertiary education as an instrument par excellence for effecting national development. This paper, therefore, critically examined the problem of graduate unemployment in Nigeria. It briefly traced the history of university education in Nigeria. The rate and causes of graduate unemployment in Nigeria were also discussed. Previous attempts made by the government to solve the problem of unemployment were highlighted. The paper also harped on the prospect of entrepreneurship education as an instrument for fighting graduate unemployment identifying obstacles to entrepreneurship education in Nigeria. The paper drew conclusion, and major recommendation made was a call for converting the National Youth Service Corps Scheme in Nigeria to entrepreneurship and skills acquisition scheme as soon as possible.

Keywords: graduate, unemployment, entrepreneurship education, national development

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Ireneusz Majsterek, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Jacek Kabzinski

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the deadliest cancers. Every year we see an increase in the number of cases, and in spite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unknown. For many years, researchers are seeking to associate genetic factors with an increased risk of CRC, so far it has proved to be a compelling link between the MMR system of DNA repair and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancers (HNPCC). Currently, research is focused on finding the relationship between the remaining DNA repair systems and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Ser835Ser of XPF gene and Gly23Ala of XPA gene–elements of NER DNA repair system, and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 23Gly/Ala of XPA gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, while 23Ala/Ala as well as TCT allele of Ser835Ser of XPF gene may reduce the risk of CRC.

Keywords: NER, colorectal cancer, XPA, XPF, polymorphisms

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: Brandon Ko

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Whether it’s a kitchen staff or a law firm, many groups tend to have homogenous characteristics of race, gender, interests, and goals. Social groups are not typically random samples of the population and will usually have common identifiers. According to Blau, age, sex, and education all play salient roles in shaping relationships within members of society. So if there is some degree of homogeneity within groups, the question arises whether this is beneficial or harmful to a group’s effectiveness. There has been much disagreement in the scientific community as to whether the presence of homophily benefits or hinders an athletic team's cohesiveness. For this paper, a comparative study of research of soccer case studies that followed various, youth players was studied against examinations of the effects that such a culture has on athletes. The case studies were used as evidence to determine what kind of homophily existed within the soccer camps. One case study followed several European developmental clubs such as Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Another study followed eight different players, four of each gender, implementing a similar method of interviewing, observing, and questioning. The individual and team goals of each athlete were reviewed to see which teams and players were ego-oriented and which were team-oriented. Additionally, there had been little research done on the relationship between homophily and how it applies to the sport community, suggesting the need to develop this neglected problem in applied psychology. This paper argues that the benefits of an egalitarian culture and stronger relations with people of a similar socio-demographic outweigh the liabilities of cohesion like being stereotyped and a lack of network outside the group as produced by homophily in athletic competition.

Keywords: group cohesion, homophily, sports psychology, youth athletics

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

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Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: Bassey Rofem Inyang, Matshidze Pfarelo, Mabale Dolphin

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Using a qualitative descriptive design, this study established the consequences of the on-going transitional rites on youth morality in the Thulamela Local Municipality, South Africa. The participants were sampled using a non-random sampling procedure, specifically, a purposive sampling technique and a snowball sampling technique. A semi-structured interview guide was recruited to collect data from the Indigenous Knowledge (IK) custodians, the parents of the youths and the youths until the point of saturation. The analysis was performed using a thematic content method. With the emergence of themes and sub-themes, broad categories were generated to differentiate and explain the thoughts expressed by the various respondents and the observations made in the field. The study findings suggest that the on-going transitional rites are depicted by weekend social activities with the practice of substance use and abuse among the youths at recreational spots. The transitional rites are structured under the guise of “freaks” as an evolving culture among the youths. The freaks culture is a counterculture of the usual initiation schools for transitional rites of passage which is believed to instill morality among youths. The findings comprehensively show that the on-going transitional rites influence inappropriate youth morality. This study concluded that the on-going transitional rites activities and practices evolved as a current socialization standard for quick maturity status; as a result, it will be challenging to provide a complete turnaround of this evolving culture. The study, however, recommends building on the exciting transitional rites of passage to moderate appropriate youths’ morality in Thulamela communities.

Keywords: morality, transitional rites, youths, behaviour

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Authors: Iyanujesu Adereti, Tajudeen Basiru, Ayodamola Olanipekun

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Background: Substance abuse among adolescents is of public health concern globally. Despite being the most abused by adolescents, there are limited studies on the prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking among adolescents in Mauritius. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol use and associated correlates among school-going adolescents in Mauritius. Methodology: Data obtained from 2017 WHO Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) survey of 3,012 school-going adolescents in Mauritius was analyzed using STATA. Descriptive statistics were used to obtain prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate predictors of cigarette smoking and alcohol use. Results: Prevalence of alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were 26.0% and 17.1%, respectively. Smoking and alcohol use was more prevalent among males, younger adolescents, and those in higher school grades (p-value <.000). In multivariable logistic regression, male gender was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) [95%Confidence Interval (CI)]= 1.51[1.06-2.14]) but lower risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.53-0.90]) while older age (mid and late adolescence) and parental smoking were found to be associated with increased risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 1.94[1.34-2.99] and 1.36[1.05-1.78] respectively). Marijuana use, truancy, being in a fight and suicide ideation were associated with increased odds of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 3.82[3.39-6.09]; 2.15[1.62-2.87]; 1.83[1.34-2.49] and 1.93[1.38-2.69] respectively) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 17.28[10.4 - 28.51]; 1.73[1.21-2. 49]; 1.67[1.14-2.45] and 2.17[1.43-3.28] respectively) while involvement in sexual activity was associated with reduced risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.50[0.37-0.68]) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.47[0.33-0.69]). Parental support and parental monitoring were uniquely associated with lower risk of cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.47-0.99] and 0.62[0.43-0.91] respectively). Conclusion: The high prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking in this study shows the need for the government of Mauritius to enhance policies that will help address this issue putting into accounts the various risk and protective factors.

Keywords: adolescent health, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, global school-based student health survey

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Authors: Abderrahmen Aloulou, Younes Boujelbene

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The current paper displays a new method of extracting information content from options prices by eliminating biases caused by daily variation of contract maturity. Based on Kernel regression tool, this non-parametric technique serves to obtain a spectrum of interpolated options with constant maturity horizons from negotiated optional contracts on the S&P TSX 60 index. This method makes it plausible to compare daily risk neutral densities from which extracting time continuous indicators allows the detection traders attitudes’ evolution, such as, belief homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme Risk Perception. Our findings indicate that the applied method contribute to develop effective trading strategies and to adjust monetary policies through controlling trader’s reactions to economic and monetary news.

Keywords: risk neutral densities, kernel, constant maturity horizons, homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme risk perception

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Authors: M. A. Peribanez, G. Illan, I. De Blas, A. Muniesa, I. Ruiz-Zarzuela

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Intensive aquaculture is commonly associated with increased incidence of parasites. However, in Spain, the recent intensification of cyprinid production has not led to knowledge of the parasites that develop in the aquaculture facilities, the factors that affect their development and spread and the transmission between wild and cultivated fish species. The present study focuses on the knowledge of environmental factors, as well as host dependent factors, and their possible influence as risk factors in the incidence and intensity of parasitic infections. This work was conducted in the Duero River Basin, NW Spain. A total of 114 tenches (Tinca tinca) were caught in a fish farm and 667 specimens belonging to six species of cyprinid, not tench, in five rivers. An exhaustive search and microscopic identification of protozoa on skin and gills were carried out. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters of water samples from the capture points were determined. Only two ectoprotozoa were identified, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. In I. multifiliis, a high intensity of infection (more than 40 parasites on the body surface and more than 80 on gills) was determined in farmed tench (14%) and in Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) (91%) and Duero nase (Pseudochondrostoma duriense) (71%) of middle stretches of rivers. The prevalence was similar between farmed tenches and cyprinids of middle courses. Tripartiella sp. was only found in barbels (prevalence in middle stretches, 0.7%) and in farmed tenches (63%), this species resulting in a high risk factor (odds ratio, OR= 1143) in the presence of the ciliate. There were no differences between the two species relative to the intensity of parasitization. Some of the physical, chemical and microbiological water quality parameters appear to be risk factors in the presence of I. multifiliis, with maximum OR of 8. Nevertheless, in Tripartiella sp., the risk is multiplied by 720 when the pH value exceeds 8.4, if we consider the total of the data, and it is increased more than 500 times if we only consider the values recorded in the fish farm (529 by nitrates > 3 mg/l; 530 by total coliforms > 100 CFU/100 ml). However, the high prevalence and risk of infection by I. multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. in fish farms should be related to environmental factors that dependent upon sampling point rather than in direct influence of the physical-chemical and biological parameters of the water. The high pH value recorded in the fish farm (9.62 ± 0.76) is the only parameter that we consider may have a substantial direct influence. Chronic exposure to alkaline pH levels can be a chronic stress generator, predisposing to parasitization by Tripartiella sp. In conclusion, often minor changes in ecosystem conditions, both natural and man-made, can modify the host-parasite relationship, resulting in an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasitic infections in populations of cyprinids, sometimes causing disease outbreaks.

Keywords: cyprinids, fish, parasites, protozoa, risk factors

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Anissa Mary Thomas Thattil, Nancy Angeline Gnanaselvam, B. Ramakrishna Goud

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Faecal sludge management (FSM) is an unorganized sector, and in India, there is an absence of regulations regarding the collection, transport, treatment, and disposal of faecal sludge. FSM has a high degree of occupational hazards that need to be thoroughly understood in order to shape effective solutions. On-field observations of five FSM operations were conducted in Anekal Taluk of southern Karnataka. All five of the FSM operations were privately owned and snowball method of sampling was employed. Two types of FS operations observed were: mechanical emptying involving direct human contact with faecal sludge and mechanical emptying without direct human contact with faecal sludge. Each operation was manned by 3-4 faecal sludge operators (FSOs). None of the observed FSOs used personal protective equipment. According to the WHO semi-quantitative risk assessment, the very high risk occupational hazards identified were dermal contact with faecal sludge, inhalation of toxic gases, and social stigma. The high risk hazards identified were trips and falls, injuries, ergonomic hazards, substance abuse, and mental health problems. In all five FSM operations, the collected faecal sludge was discharged untreated onto abandoned land. FSM in India is fraught with occupational and environmental hazards which need to be urgently addressed. This includes formalizing the institution of FSM, contextualized behaviour change communication, capacity building of local bodies, awareness programmes among agriculturists and FSOs, and designation of sites for the safe harnessing of faecal sludge as soil nutrient.

Keywords: faecal sludge, faecal sludge management, FSM, occupational hazards, sanitation

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: Alba Ballester Ciuró, Marc Pares Franzi

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While coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe and greater socio-economic damages, traditional flood risk management has become inefficient. In response to that, new approaches such as capacity building and public participation have recently been incorporated in natural hazards mitigation policy (i.e. Sendai Framework for Action, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and EU Floods Directive). By integrating capacity building and public participation, we present a research concerning the promotion of participatory social capacity building actions for flood risk mitigation at the local level. Social capacities have been defined as the resources and abilities available at individual and collective level that can be used to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to external stressors. Social capacity building is understood as a process of identifying communities’ social capacities and of applying collaborative strategies to improve them. This paper presents a proposal of systematization of participatory social capacity building process for flood risk mitigation, and its implementation in a high risk of flooding area in the Ebro river basin: Ribera Alta del Ebro. To develop this process, we designed and tested a tool that allows measuring and building five types of social capacities: knowledge, motivation, networks, participation and finance. The tool implementation has allowed us to assess social capacities in the area. Upon the results of the assessment we have developed a co-decision process with stakeholders and flood risk management authorities on which participatory activities could be employed to improve social capacities for flood risk mitigation. Based on the results of this process, and focused on the weaker social capacities, we developed a set of participatory actions in the area oriented to general public and stakeholders: informative sessions on flood risk management plan and flood insurances, interpretative river descents on flood risk management (with journalists, teachers, and general public), interpretative visit to the floodplain, workshop on agricultural insurance, deliberative workshop on project funding, deliberative workshops in schools on flood risk management (playing with a flood risk model). The combination of obtaining data through a mixed-methods approach of qualitative inquiry and quantitative surveys, as well as action research through co-decision processes and pilot participatory activities, show us the significant impact of public participation on social capacity building for flood risk mitigation and contributes to the understanding of which main factors intervene in this process.

Keywords: flood risk management, public participation, risk reduction, social capacities, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Eman G. Alayad, Mazen G. Aleyad, Mohammed Alshahrani, Ibrahim Alnaami

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Introduction: Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is a rare type of cerebrovascular disease that can occur at any age. Patients with CVT commonly present with headache, focal neurological deficit, decreased level of consciousness and seizures. Many etiologic risk factors have been reported for CVT, high altitude and oral contraceptive pill some of them. Case Presentation: A 37-year-old woman living in Abha city in the southeastern area of Saudi Arabia. (about 10,000 feet-3000 m) over the sea. complaining acute onset of severe diffuse headache and generalized tonic clonic convulsions. Followed by loss of consciousness. She was on contraceptive pills for the last 3 years. No significant Medical or surgical history. Brain CT revealed subarachnoid hemorrhage, with MRI findings showing thrombosis in transvers sinus. There was no vascular malformations such as aneurysm, arteriovenous malformation (AVM), or dural arteriovenous fistula. A CVT with subarachnoid hemorrhage was our final diagnosis based on clinical presentation and radiographic findings. Discussion: Patients with CVT had evidence of cortical SAH by 10 of 233, others found 3% of SAH was caused by CVT, indicating that the presence of cortical SAH without involvement of the basal cisterns may provide an early sign of underlying CVT. However, what is more interesting in this case, is the relationship of high altitude with CVT and SAH, which previously undescribed. Conclusion: High-altitude climbing per se was described as a risk factor for the development of CVT, though its occurrence was probably rare. Whether it is primary in etiology due to high altitude induced hypercoagulable state of unknown origin or due to cerebrovascular disturbances there is a need for further investigation especially at this unusual presentation of subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Keywords: cerebral venous thrombosis, high-altitude, subarachnoid hemorrhage, stroke

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Despoina Andrioti Bygvraa, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, George Charalambous

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Exhaust gas cleaning systems, also known as scrubbers, are today widely used to allow for the use of High Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil and still comply with the regulations limiting sulphur content in marine fuels. There are extensive concerns about environmental consequences, especially in the Baltic Sea, from the wide-scale use of scrubbers, as the wash water is acidic (ca pH 3) and contains high concentrations of toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic substances. The aim of this feasibility study is to investigate the potential adverse effects on seafarers’ health with the ultimate goal of raising awareness of chemical-related health and safety issues in the shipping environment. The project got funding from the Swedish Foundation. The team will extend previously compiled data on scrubber wash water concentrations of hazardous substances and pH to include the use of strong base in closed-loop scrubbers, and scoping assessment on handling and disposing practices. Based on the findings (a), a systematic review of risk assessment will follow to show the risk of exposures, the establishment of the hazardous levels for human health as well as the respective prevention practices. In addition, the researchers will perform (b) a systematic review to identify facilitators and barriers of the crew on compliance with the safe handling of chemicals. The study will run for 12 months, delivering (a) a risk assessment inventory with risk exposures and (b) a course description of safe handling practices. This feasibility study could provide valuable knowledge on how pollutants found in scrubbers should be considered from a human health perspective to facilitate evidence-based informed decisions in future technology- and policy development to make shipping a safer, healthier, and more attractive workplace.

Keywords: health and safety, seafarers, scrubbers, chemicals, risk exposures

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

Procedia PDF Downloads 138