Search results for: domestic credit

Authors: Christopher Manyamba

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Women in Malawi produce perform between 50-70 percent of all agricultural tasks and yet the majority remain food insecure. The aim of his paper is to build on existing mixed evidence that indicates that empowering women in agriculture is conducive to improving food security. The WEAI is used to provide evidence on the relationship between women’s empowerment in agriculture and household food security. A multinomial logistic regression is applied to the Women Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) components and the Household Hunger Scale. The overall results show that the WEAI can be used to determine household food insecurity; however it has to be contextually adapted. Assets ownership, credit, group membership and leisure time are positively associated with food security. Contrary to other literature, empowerment in having control and decisions on income indicate negative association with household food security. These results could potentially better inform public, private and civil society stakeholders’ dialogues in creating the most effective and sustainable interventions to help women attain long-term food security.

Keywords: food security, gender, empowerment, agriculture index, framework for African food security, household hunger scale

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Authors: Joshua Chima Chizoba, Wisdom Izuchukwu Uzoma, Elizabeth Ifeyiwa Okoyeh

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Water cannot be optimally used and sustained unless the quality is periodically assessed. The study area Umunneochi and environs are located in south eastern part of Nigeria. It stretches geographically from latitudes 50501N to 60000N and longitudes 70201E to 70301. The major geologic formations in the area include the Asu River group, Nkporo Shale, and Ajali Sandstone. The aim of this study is to evaluate the hydrochemical characteristics of surface and ground water sources in parts of Umunneochi and environs in order to establish portability of the water sources for drinking, domestic and irrigation purposes. A total of 15 samples were collected randomly from streams, springs and wells. The samples were analyzed for physicochemical parameters and heavy metals using handheld digital kits, photometer, titration method and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS) following acceptable standards. The obtained analytical data were interpreted, and results were compared with World Health Organization (WHO) standard. The concentration of pH, SO42-and Cl- range from 5.81 mg/l – 6.07 mg/l, 41.93 mg/l – 142.95 mg/l and 20.00 mg/l – 111 mg/l respectively, while Pb and Zn revealed a relative low mean concentration of 0.14 mg/l and 0.40 mg/l, which are all within (WHO) permissible limits except pH. About 27% of the samples are moderately hard. This is attributed to the mining activities in the areas. The abundance of cations and anions in the area are in the order of K+>Na+>Mg2+>Ca2+ and SO4->Cl->HCO3->NO3-, respectively. Chloride, bicarbonate, and nitrate are all within the permissible limits. 13.33% of the total samples contain Sulphate above the standard permissible limits. The values of calculated Water Quality Index (WQI) are less than 50 indicating excellent water. The predominant water-type in the study area is Na-Cl water type and mixed Ca-Mg-Cl water type based on the sample plots on the Piper diagram. The Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR) calculations showed excellent water for consumption and also good water for irrigation purpose with low sodium and alkalinity ratio respectively. Government water projects are recommended in the area for sustainable domestic and agricultural water supply to ease the stress of water supply problems.

Keywords: groundwater, hydrochemical, physichochemical, water-type, sodium adsorption ratio

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Authors: K. V. Venugopalan

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Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have been accepted as the engine of economic growth and for promoting equitable development. The major advantage of the sector is its employment potential at low capital cost. The labour intensity of the MSME sector is much higher than that of the large enterprises. The MSMEs constitute over 90% of total enterprises in most of the economies and are credited with generating the highest rates of employment growth and account for a major share of industrial production and exports. Kerala is a small state in India with the limited land area with high potential in educated human resources need micro, small and medium enterprises for development. Kerala has the highest Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI) in India and the highest Human Development Index (HDI) at par with the developed countries SME play an important role in alleviating poverty and contribute significantly towards the growth of developing economies. Financial institutions can play a vital role for the promotion of micro, small and medium enterprises in Kerala. The study entitled “Financial Institutions and its role in the promotion of Small and Medium Enterprises in Kerala “examine the progress of MSME in Kerala and India and also the role of financial institutions and the problems faced by entrepreneurs for getting advances with reference to ‘Kerala Financial Corporation’-an agency set up by the government for promoting small and medium enterprises in the state. This study is based on both secondary and primary data. Primary data for the study was collected from those entrepreneurs who availed advances from financial institutions. The secondary data include the investment made, goods and services provided, the employment generated and the number of units registered in MSME sector for the last 10 years in Kerala. The study concluded that financial institutions providing finance with simple procedures and charging smaller interest rates will increase the number of MSME's and also contribute gross state domestic product and reduce the unemployment problem and poverty in the economy.

Keywords: gross state domestic product, human development index, micro, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Medha Iyer, Anshul Paul, Aunnesha Bhowmick, Anahita Banerjee, Sana Prasad, Anoushka Singal, Lauren Sinopoli, Pooja Bapat, Shivi Jain

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In Himachal Pradesh, India, a majority of the population lives in rural villages spread throughout its hilly regions; many of these households rely on subsistence farming as their main source of livelihood. The student-run non-profit organization affiliated with this study, Project RISHI (Rural India Social and Health Improvement), works to promote sustainable development practices in Bharog Baneri, a gram panchayat, or union, of villages in Himachal Pradesh. In 2017, an established rainwater harvesting (RWH) project group within Project RISHI had surveyed many families, finding that the most common issue regarding food and water access was a lack of accessible water sources for agricultural use in the dry season. After a prototype build in 2018, the group built 6 systems for eligible residents that demonstrated need in 2019. Subsequently, the project went through an evaluation period, including self-evaluation of project goals and post-impact surveying of system recipients. The group used the social impact assessment model to optimize the implementation of domestic RWH systems in Bharog Baneri. Assessing implementation after in-person builds produced three pillars of focus — system design, equitable recipient selection, and community involvement. After two years of remote involvement during COVID-19, the group prepared to visit Bharog Baneri to build 10 new systems in the Summer 2022. First, the group created a more durable and cost-effective design that could withstand debris and heavy rains to prevent gutter failure. The domestic system design is a rooftop RWH catchment system with two tanks attached, an overflow pipe, debris filtration, and a spigot for accessibility. The group also developed a needs-based eligibility methodology with assistance from village leaders and surveying in Bharog Baneri and set up the groundwork for a future community board. COVID-19 has strengthened remote work, telecommunications, and other organizational support systems. As sustainable development evolves to encompass these practices in a post-pandemic world, the potential for new RWH system design and implementation processes has emerged as well. This raises the question: how can a social impact assessment of rural RWH projects inform an integrated approach to post-pandemic RWH system practices? The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate and evaluate a novel remote build infrastructure that brings access to reliable and sustainable sources of water for agricultural use. To construct the remote build approach, the group identified and assigned a point of contact who was experienced with previous RWH system builds. The recipients were selected based on demonstrated need and ease of building. The contact visited each of the houses and coordinated supplier relations and transportation of the materials in accordance with the participatory approach to sustainable development. Over the course of two months, the group completed four system builds with the resulting infrastructure. The infrastructure adhered to the social impact assessment model by centering supplier relations, material transportation, and construction logistics within the community. The conclusion of this exploration is that post-pandemic rural RWH practices should be rooted in strengthening villager communication and utilizing local assets. Through this, non-profit organizations can incorporate remote build strategies into their long-term goals.

Keywords: capturing run-off from rooftops, domestic rainwater harvesting, Implementation approaches and strategies, rainwater harvesting and management in rural sectors

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Authors: Selifontova Darya Yurievna

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The study of the process of the emergence and evolution of socio-cultural ideas about the "Asian states" in the context of the development of US cinema in 1941-1945 will contribute both to the approbation of a new approach to the classical subject and will allow using the methodological tools of history, political science, philology, sociology for understanding modern military-political, historical, ideological, socio-cultural processes on a concrete example. This is especially important for understanding the process of constructing the image of the Japanese Empire in the USA. Assessments and images of China and Japan in World War II, created in American cinema, had an immediate impact on the media, public sentiment, and opinions. During the war, the US cinema created new myths and actively exploited old ones, combining them with traditional Hollywood cliches - all this served as a basis for creating the image of China and the Japanese Empire on the screen, which were necessary to solve many foreign policy and domestic political tasks related to the construction of two completely different, but at the same time, similar images of Asia (China and the Japanese Empire). In modern studies devoted to the history of wars, the study of the specifics of the information confrontation of the parties is in demand. A special role in this confrontation is played by propaganda through cinema, which uses images, historical symbols, and stable metaphors, the appeal to which can form a certain public reaction. Soviet documentaries of the war years are proof of this. The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that cinema as a means of propaganda was very popular and in demand during the Second World War. This period was the time of creation of real masterpieces in the field of propaganda films, in the documentary space of the cinema of 1941 – 1945. The traditions of depicting the Second World War were laid down. The study of the peculiarities of visualization and mythologization of the Second World War in Soviet cinema is the most important stage for studying the development of the specifics of propaganda methods since the methods and techniques of depicting the war formed in 1941-1945 are also significant at the present stage of the study of society.

Keywords: asian countries, politics, sociology, domestic politics, USA, cinema

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Silvia Lorenzo, Hongmian Gong

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With the influx of research assessing the economic impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-8, a spatial analysis based on empirical data is needed to better understand the spatial significance of the financial crisis in New York, a key international financial center also considered the origin of the crisis. Using spatial statistics, the existence of financial clusters specializing in credit and securities throughout the New York metropolitan area are identified for 2000 and 2010, the time period before and after the height of the global financial crisis. Geographically Weighted Regressions are then used to examine processes underlying the formation and movement of financial geographies across state, county and ZIP codes of the New York metropolitan area throughout the 2000s with specific attention to tax regimes, employment, household income, technology, and transportation hubs. This analysis provides useful inputs for financial risk management and public policy initiatives aimed at addressing regional economic sustainability across state boundaries, while also developing the groundwork for further research on a spatial analysis of the global financial crisis.

Keywords: financial clusters, New York, global financial crisis, geographically weighted regression

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Authors: Seyed Ali Mohammadiborna, Mehdi Ravanshadnia

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Project delays usually detrimentally affect perceptions of project success and can in some instances, result in increased costs and other time-related damages to project stakeholders. One of the realities in the national infrastructure projects is that since the primary stakeholders are state-affiliated, the delay factors of the projects have not been seriously taken into account despite the importance of on-time completion of projects. Project postponement has different economic and social consequences and leads to the technical and economic infeasibility of the infrastructure projects in the form of reduced productivity and exploitation capacity. The present study aimed at investigating delay factors of Iranian national infrastructure projects according to regulatory reports of the Plan and Budget Organization (BPO) of Iran. The present study scrutinized the influence of each of the factors that caused delays in national Iranian infrastructure projects according to the supervision reports of the planning and budget organization in 8 years. For this purpose, the study analyzed the information regarding the impact of 12 key delay factors causing delays in average 4867 projects per year in all provinces. The said factors were classified into the three groups of executive, credit, and financial and environmental-procurement factors.

Keywords: delays, infrastructure, projects, regulatory

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Authors: Fatimah Opebiyi

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Economic growth promotion, inflation reduction and consumer protection are among the core public interest aims of governments. Nevertheless, higher rates of default by consumers in relation to credit card loans and mortgages in recent times illustrate that government’s performance in balancing the protection of the economy and consumer is subpar. This thereby raises an important question on the role of government in protecting consumers during prolonged spells of inflation, particularly when such inflationary trends may be traceable to the acts of the government. Adopting a doctrinal research methodology, this article investigates the evolution of the concept of consumer protection in the United Kingdom and also brings to the fore the tensions and conflicts of interests in the aims and practices of the main regulators within the financial services industry. Relying on public interest theories of regulation and responsive regulatory theory, the article explores the limitations in the state’s ability to strike the right balance in meeting regulatory aims of the regulatory agencies at the opposite ends of the spectrum.

Keywords: financial regulation, consumer protection, prudential regulation, public interest theories of regulation, central bank

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Authors: Eti Dwi Wiraningsih, Folashade Agusto, Lina Aryati, Syamsuddin Toaha, Suzanne Lenhart, Widodo, Willy Govaerts

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of rabies virus in the wild dogs-domestic dogs-human zoonotic cycle. The effect of vaccination and culling in dogs is considered on the model, then the stability was analysed to get basic reproduction number. We use the next generation matrix method and Routh-Hurwitz test to analyze the stability of the Disease-Free Equilibrium and Endemic Equilibrium of this model.

Keywords: stability analysis, rabies model, vaccination effect, culling in dogs

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Authors: Burcu Akyildiz, Cigdem Kadaifci, Y. Ilker Topcu, Burc Ulengin

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In today’s business environment, companies should make strategic decisions to gain sustainable competitive advantage. Order selection is a crucial issue among these decisions especially for steel production industry. When the companies allocate a high proportion of their design and production capacities to their ongoing projects, determining which customer order should be chosen among the potential orders without exceeding the remaining capacity is the major critical problem. In this study, it is aimed to identify and prioritize the evaluation factors for the customer order selection problem. Conjoint analysis is used to examine the importance level of each factor which is determined as the potential profit rate per unit of time, the compatibility of potential order with available capacity, the level of potential future order with higher profit, customer credit of future business opportunity, and the negotiability level of production schedule for the order.

Keywords: conjoint analysis, order prioritization, profit management, structural steel firm

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Authors: Timothée Bligny, Clément Codron, Antoine Estruch, Nicolas Girodet, Clément Ginet

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Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.

Keywords: synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), credit default swap (CDS), cash flow optimization, probability of default, default correlation, strategies, simulation, simplex

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Authors: Vijay Kumar, Ron Bird

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The study investigates the effect of bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of conventional and Islamic banks. Our sample comprises 1,781 bank-year observations of 205 banks from four countries in the Asian region for the period 2004-2014. Our results suggest that credit quality, cost management and bank size are the keys factors that contribute positively to bank profitability in Asia. The banks with high non-performing loans and high cost-to-income ratio are more likely to be exposed to losses. The impacts of the bank-specific variables are stronger than are the industry-specific and macroeconomic variables. We find that Malaysian banks are the least profitable compared to the banks in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan. There is strong evidence to suggest that conventional banks are more profitable than Islamic banks. Our results suggest that the impact of capital adequacy ratio and bank size and loan to deposit ratio vary across Islamic and conventional banks and across different subsamples.

Keywords: capital adequacy ratio, Islamic banks, non-performing loan ratio, ownership

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Authors: Sunil Arora, Anitya Kumar Jena, S. A. Ravi

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India is at the cusp of major reforms in the hydrocarbon sector. Oil and gas sector is highly liberalised to attract private investment and to increase domestic production. Major hydrocarbon Exploration & Production (E&P) activity here have been undertaken by Government owned companies but with easing up and reworking of hydro carbon exploration licensing policies private players have also joined the fray towards achieving energy security for India. Government of India has come up with policy and administrative reforms including Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP), Sagarmala (port-led development with coastal connectivity), and Development of Small Discovered Fields, etc. with the intention to make industry friendly conditions for investment, ease of doing business and reduce gestation period. To harness the potential resources of Deep water and Ultra deep water, High Pressure – High Temperature (HP-HT) regions, Coal Bed Methane (CBM), Shale Hydrocarbons besides Gas Hydrates, participation shall be required from both domestic and international players. Companies engaged in E&P activities in India have traditionally been managing through their captive supply base, but with crude prices under hammer, the need is being felt to outsource non-core activities. This necessitates establishment of a robust support services to cater to E&P Industry, which is currently non-existent to meet the bourgeon challenges. This paper outlines an agenda for creating an Integrated Services Hub (ISH) under Special Economic Zone (SEZ) to facilitate complete gamut of non-core support activities of E&P industry. This responsive and proficient multi-usage facility becomes viable with better resource utilization, economies of scale to offer cost effective services. The concept envisages companies to bring-in their core technical expertise leaving complete hardware peripherals outsourced to this ISH. The Integrated Services Hub, complying with the best in class global standards, shall typically provide following Services under Single Window Solution, but not limited to: a) Logistics including supply base operations, transport of manpower and material, helicopters, offshore supply vessels, warehousing, inventory management, sourcing and procurement activities, international freight forwarding, domestic trucking, customs clearance service etc. b) Trained/Experienced pool of competent Manpower (Technical, Security etc.) will be available for engagement by companies on either short or long term basis depending upon the requirements with provisions of meeting any training requirements. c) Specialized Services through tie-up with global best companies for Crisis Management, Mud/Cement, Fishing, Floating Dry-dock besides provision of Workshop, Repair and Testing facilities, etc. d) Tools and Tackles including drill strings, etc. A pre-established Integrated Services Hub shall facilitate an early start-up of activities with substantial savings in time lines. This model can be replicated at other parts of the world to expedite E&P activities.

Keywords: integrated service hub, India, oil gas, offshore supply base

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Authors: Freda E. Asem, R. D. Osei, D. B. Sarpong, J. K. Kuwornu

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While market access remains important, Ghana’s major handicap is her inability to sustain export growth on the open market. The causes of these could be attributed to inefficiency, lack of competitiveness and supply-side constraints. This study examined the challenges faced by smallholder horticultural farmers and how it relates to their technical efficiency. The study employed mixed methods to address the problem. Using the Millennium Development Account (MiDA) Farmer Based Organization survey data on farm households in 23 districts in Ghana, the study assessed the technical efficiency of smallholder horticultural farmers (taking into account production risks). Focus group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews were also conducted on smallholder mango, pineapple, and chilli pepper farmers selected districts in Ghana. Results revealed the constraints faced by smallholder horticultural farmers to be marketing, training, funding, accessibility, and affordability of inputs, land, access to credit, and the disconnect between themselves and policy makers and implementers.

Keywords: productivity, gender, policy, efficiency, constraints

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Authors: Vaishnavi Patil, K. M. Kurundkar

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Electrical Drives play a vital role in industry development and applications. Drives have an inevitable part in the needs of various fields such as industry, commercial, and domestic applications. The development of material technology, Power Electronics devices, and accompanying applications led to the focus of industry and researchers on high-speed electrical drives. Numerous articles charted the applications of electrical machines and various converters for high-speed applications. The choice depends on the application under study. This paper goals to highlight high-speed applications, main challenges, and some applications of electrical drives in the field.

Keywords: high-speed, electrical machines, drives, applications

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Authors: Ayşen Melda Çolak, Volkan Okatan, Ercan Yıldız

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In our country, fruit production was determined as 17.2 million tons in 2011 according to official data. Turkey fig, apricot, cherry and quince production ranks first in the world. Almost all the regions of our country, despite the growing of fruit 54% of the total fruit production occur in the Mediterranean and the Aegean Region. However, fruit production in the country is consumed in the domestic market and export rates are often very low. In this study, a questionnaire to 100 farmers face-to-face interview. According to the survey, 40% of those in fruit and 7 da of 7 hectares land are small. 30% of soil testing for manufacturers, testing for 20% of the water. Manufacturers who deliberately fertilization rate of only 10%.

Keywords: fruit, generation, potential, Sivasli survey

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Authors: Lu Yung-Hsiang, Chang Kuming, Dai Yi-Fang, Liao Ching-Yi

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According to Taiwan’s administrative division of future land planning may lead farmer association and service areas facing recombination or merger. Thus, merger combination and the economic benefit of the farmer association are worth to be discussed. The farmer association in the merger, which may cause some then will not be consolidated, or consolidate two, or ever more to one association. However, under what condition to merge is greatest, as one of observation of this study. In addition, research without using simulation methods and only on the credit department rather whole farmer association. Therefore, this paper will use the simulation approach, and examine both the merge of farmer association and the condition under which the benefits are the greatest. The data of this study set include 266 farmer associations in Taiwan period 2012 to 2013. Empirical results showed that the number of the farmer association optimal simulation combination is 108.After the merger from the first stage can be reduced by 60% of the farmers’ association. The cost saving effects of the post-merger is not different. The cost efficiency of the farmers’ association improved it. The economies of scale and scope would decrease by the merger. The research paper hopes the finding will benefit the future merger of the farmers’ association.

Keywords: simulation merger, farmer association, assurance region, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: Jean Rosemond Dora, Karol Nemoga

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In this work, we tackle a frequent problem that frequently occurs in the cybersecurity field which is the exploitation of websites by XSS attacks, which are nowadays considered a complicated attack. These types of attacks aim to execute malicious scripts in a web browser of the client by including code in a legitimate web page. A serious matter is when a website accepts the “user-input” option. Attackers can exploit the web application (if vulnerable), and then steal sensitive data (session cookies, passwords, credit cards, etc.) from the server and/or from the client. However, the difficulty of the exploitation varies from website to website. Our focus is on the usage of ontology in cybersecurity against XSS attacks, on the importance of the ontology, and its core meaning for cybersecurity. We explain how a vulnerable website can be exploited, and how different JavaScript payloads can be used to detect vulnerabilities. We also enumerate some tools to use for an efficient analysis. We present detailed reasoning on what can be done to improve the security of a website in order to resist attacks, and we provide supportive examples. Then, we apply an ontology model against XSS attacks to strengthen the protection of a web application. However, we note that the existence of ontology does not improve the security itself, but it has to be properly used and should require a maximum of security layers to be taken into account.

Keywords: cybersecurity, web application vulnerabilities, cyber threats, ontology model

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Authors: Mahesh Balan U, Rohith Srinivaas Mohanakrishnan, Venkat Subramanian

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Positive and unlabeled learning (PU) has gained more attention in both academic and industry research literature recently because of its relevance to existing business problems today. Yet, there still seems to be some existing challenges in terms of validating the performance of PU learning, as the actual truth of unlabeled data points is still unknown in contrast to a binary classification where we know the truth. In this study, we propose a novel PU learning technique based on the Pseudo-F measure, where we address this research gap. In this approach, we train the PU model to discriminate the probability distribution of the positive and unlabeled in the validation and spy data. The predicted probabilities of the PU model have a two-fold validation – (a) the predicted probabilities of reliable positives and predicted positives should be from the same distribution; (b) the predicted probabilities of predicted positives and predicted unlabeled should be from a different distribution. We experimented with this approach on a credit marketing case study in one of the world’s biggest fintech platforms and found evidence for benchmarking performance and backtested using historical data. This study contributes to the existing literature on semi-supervised learning.

Keywords: PU learning, semi-supervised learning, pseudo f measure, classification

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Authors: Kim Jin-OK, Lee Jin-Eui, Han Seung-Hoon, Kim Nam-Jo

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This study aimed to analyze the effect of the motivation of Chinese tourists to visit North Korea on their decision making process. Chinese tourists account for a considerable portion of foreign tourists in the world, while North Korea is the favorite tourist attraction of Chinese tourists. The motivation to visit North Korea was divided into three factors: the redness, which is the modern cultural heritage of Communism based on the red tourism accounting for the significant portion of domestic tourism, the novelty of the special environment of North Korean society, and the convenience of tour to North Korea in terms of geographical distance and policy of China. Red tourism refers to visiting the places of revolutionary events, monuments, artifacts and the residences of previous communist leaders, and other places related to the past Chinese Communist Party. As a revolutionary tourism, red tourism has recently been taking place in the old communist countries to recall their memories on the revolutionary places in China, as well as in North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Russia, Bulgaria, Cuba, etc. In order to examine the effect of the segmented motivations on the revisit intention of Chinese tourists who have experienced a tour to North Korea, this study employed the model of goal-directed behavior, a model developed by adding a variable of emotion to the theory of planned behavior, which has a strong explanatory power on the decision making process of people in social science. For achieving the aim of the study, the data was collected through the survey in Dandong, China against Chinese tourists who have visited North Korea. The results of this study found that not only the novelty of North Korea, but also the redness, which accounts for the largest proportion in the domestic tourism, are significantly affecting overseas tour of Chinese tourists at this time point where overseas tour of Chinese tourists continue to increase. The results, therefore, suggest that the old communist countries, including those in Asia, need an emotional promotion strategy that stimulates nostalgia by focusing on the redness of the modern cultural heritage of Communism to attract Chinese tourists.

Keywords: model of goal-directed behavior, modern cultural heritage, North Korea, red tourism

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Authors: Manqhai Kraai, Adrian M. Shrader, Peter F. Scogings

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For animals living in herds, competition between group members increases as herd size increases. The intensity of this competition is likely greater across poor quality landscapes and during the dry season. In contrast to wild herbivores, herd size in domestic livestock is determined by their owners. This then raises the question, how do domestic livestock, like goats, reduce competition for food within these defined herds? To explore this question, large-scale foraging behaviour of both small (12 to 28 individuals) and large (42 to 83 individuals) herds of free-ranging goats were recorded in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study was conducted on three different landscapes that varied in both food quality and availability, during the wet and dry seasons of 2013-2014. The goats were housed in kraals overnight and let out in the mornings to forage unattended. Thus, foraging decisions were made by the goats and not by herders. The large-scale foraging behaviours focussed on included, (i) total distance travelled by goats while foraging, (ii) distance travelled before starting to feed, (iii) travel speed, and (iv) feeding duration. This was done using Garmin Foretrex 401 GPS devices harnessed to two goats per herd. Irrespective of season, there was no difference in the total distance travelled by the different sized herds across the different quality landscapes. However, both small and large herds started feeding farther from the kraal in the dry compared to the wet season. Despite this, there was no significant seasonal difference in total amount of time the herds spent feeding across the different landscapes. Finally, both small and large herds increased their travel speed across all the landscapes in the dry season, but large herds travelled faster than small herds. This increase was likely to maximise the time that large herds could spend feeding in good areas. Ultimately, these results indicate that both small and large herds were affected by declines in food quality and quantity during the dry season. However, as large herds made greater behavioural adjustments compared to smaller herds (i.e., feeding farther away from the kraal and travelling faster), it appeared that they were more affected by the seasonal increases in intra-herd competition.

Keywords: distance, feeding duration, food availability, food quality, travel speed

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Authors: Suppara Charoenpoom

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The purposes of this research were to investigate the level of consumers’ awareness of the traditional community retailers in terms of location, service quality, risk, shopping enjoyment, value for money, shopping satisfaction and intention to repurchase as well as to investigate the factors influenced the consumers’ repurchase in Samut Sonkhram Province, Thailand. The findings revealed that consumers had a high level of awareness in terms of location, and intention to repurchase. The factors influenced the consumers’ level of satisfaction included value for money, shopping enjoyment, and service quality. The factors of consumers’ level of satisfaction had an influence to the intention to repurchase. Moreover, the findings also revealed that the majority of respondents wanted traditional community retailers to continue to operate because of these reasons: close location, convenience, credit, as well as provide a place and time for community social gathering and activities.

Keywords: quality management, service quality, traditional retailer, consumers’ awareness

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Authors: Olumuyiwa Olusola Falowo

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One of the objectives of the Millennium Development Goals is to have sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. In line with this objective, an assessment of groundwater quality was carried out in Odigbo Local Government Area of Ondo State in November – February, 2019 to assess the drinking, domestic and irrigation uses of the water. Samples from 30 randomly selected ground water sources; 16 shallow wells and 14 from boreholes and analyzed using American Public Health Association method for the examination of water and wastewater. Water quality index calculation, and diagrams such as Piper diagram, Gibbs diagram and Wilcox diagram have been used to assess the groundwater in conjunction with irrigation indices such as % sodium, sodium absorption ratio, permeability index, magnesium ratio, Kelly ratio, and electrical conductivity. In addition statistical Principal component analysis were used to determine the homogeneity and source(s) influencing the chemistry of the groundwater. The results show that all the parameters are within the permissible limit of World Health Organization. The physico-chemical analysis of groundwater samples indicates that the dominant major cations are in decreasing order of Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+ and the dominant anions are HCO-3, Cl-, SO-24, NO-3. The values of water quality index varies suggest a Good water (WQI of 50-75) accounts for 70% of the study area. The dominant groundwater facies revealed in this study are the non-carbonate alkali (primary salinity) exceeds 50% (zone 7); and transition zone with no one cation-anion pair exceeds 50% (zone 9), while evaporation; rock–water interaction, and precipitation; and silicate weathering process are the dominant processes in the hydrogeochemical evolution of the groundwater. The study indicates that waters were found within the permissible limits of irrigation indices adopted, and plot on excellent category on Wilcox plot. In conclusion, the water in the study area are good/suitable for drinking, domestic and irrigation purposes with low equivalent salinity concentrate and moderate electrical conductivity.

Keywords: equivalent salinity concentration, groundwater quality, hydrochemical facies, principal component analysis, water-rock interaction

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Authors: Olaifa Temitope Abimbola

Abstract:

The spate of the occurrence of Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria and indeed Africa is sporadic and to say the least alarming. To scholars of Ethnic Conflict in Africa, it has defied all logical approaches to its resolution. Based on this fact international organisations have begun to look for alternative means of approaching these conflicts. Not a few have agreed that wars are better and cheaper prevented than resolved or transformed. In the light of this, this paper had set out to look at the concept of Preventive Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Women and the role they play in mitigating conflict by researching into activities of women in pre and post-conflict situations in selected African conflict and has been able to establish the peculiar capacity of women in dousing tension both at domestic and communal levels.

Keywords: preventive diplomacy, gender, peacebuilding, low

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Authors: Justine Salam

Abstract:

As a federal state, Canada’s constitutional arrangements regarding the management of natural resources is unique because it gives complete ownership and control of natural resources to the provinces (subnational level). However, the province of Alberta—home to the third largest oil reserves in the world—lags behind comparable jurisdictions in levying royalties on oil corporations, especially oil sands royalties. While Albertans own the oil sands, scholars have argued that natural resource exploitation in Alberta benefits corporations and industry more than it does Albertans. This study provides a systematic understanding of the causal factors affecting royalties in Alberta to map dynamics of power and how they manifest themselves during policy-making. Mounting domestic and global public pressure led Alberta to review its oil sands royalties twice in less than a decade through public-commissioned Royalty Review Panels, first in 2007 and again in 2015. The Panels’ task was to research best practices and to provide policy recommendations to the Government through public consultations with Albertans, industry, non-governmental organizations, and First Nations peoples. Both times, the Panels recommended a relative increase to oil sands royalties. However, irrespective of the Reviews’ recommendations, neither the right-wing 2007 Progressive Conservative Party (PC) nor the left-wing 2015 New Democratic Party (NDP) government—both committed to increase oil sands royalties—increased royalty intake. Why did two consecutive political parties at opposite ends of the political spectrum fail to account for the recommendations put forward by the Panel? Through a qualitative case-study analysis, this study assesses domestic and global causal factors for Alberta’s inability to raise oil sands royalties significantly after the two Reviews through an institutions, interests, and ideas framework. Indeed, causal factors can be global (e.g. market and price fluctuation) or domestic (e.g. oil companies’ influence on the Alberta government). The institutions, interests, and ideas framework is at the intersection of public policy, comparative studies, and political economy literatures, and therefore draws multi-faceted insights into the analysis. To account for institutions, the study proposes to review international trade agreements documents such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) because they have embedded Alberta’s oil sands into American energy security policy and tied Canadian and Albertan oil policy in legal international nods. To account for interests, such as how the oil lobby or the environment lobby can penetrate governmental decision-making spheres, the study draws on the Oil Sands Oral History project, a database of interviews from government officials and oil industry leaders at a pivotal time in Alberta’s oil industry, 2011-2013. Finally, to account for ideas, such as how narratives of Canada as a global ‘energy superpower’ and the importance of ‘energy security’ have dominated and polarized public discourse, the study relies on content analysis of Alberta-based pro-industry newspapers to trace the prevalence of these narratives. By mapping systematically the nods and dynamics of power at play in Alberta, the study sheds light on the factors that influence royalty policy-making in one of the largest industries in Canada.

Keywords: Alberta Canada, natural resources governance, oil sands, political economy

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Authors: Atif Alenezi

Abstract:

The low global oil price poses economic challenges for Saudi Arabia, as oil revenues still make up a great percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the end of 2014, the Consultative Assembly considered a report from the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy which highlights that the economy had not been successfully diversified. There thus exist ample reasons for modernising the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime, primarily to achieve and maintain prosperity and facilitate peace in the region. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying specific problems with the existing FDI regime in Saudi Arabia and subsequently some solutions to those problems. Saudi Arabia adopted its first specific legislation in 1956, which imposed significant restrictions on foreign ownership. Since then, Saudi Arabia has modernised its FDI framework with the passing of the Foreign Capital Investment Act 1979 and the Foreign Investment Law2000 and the accompanying Executive Rules 2000 and the recently adopted Implementing Regulations 2014.Nonetheless, the legislative provisions contain various gaps and the failure to address these gaps creates risks and uncertainty for investors. For instance, the important topic of mergers and acquisitions has not been addressed in the Foreign Investment Law 2000. The circumstances in which expropriation can be considered to be in the public interest have not been defined. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has not entered into many bilateral investment treaties (BITs). This has an effect on the investment climate, as foreign investors are not afforded typical rights. An analysis of the BITs which have been entered into reveals that the national treatment standard and stabilisation, umbrella or renegotiation provisions have not been included. This is problematic since the 2000 Act does not spell out the applicable standard in accordance with which foreign investors should be treated. Moreover, the most-favoured-nation (MFN) or fair and equitable treatment (FET) standards have not been put on a statutory footing. Whilst the Arbitration Act 2012 permits that investment disputes can be internationalised, restrictions have been retained. The effectiveness of international arbitration is further undermined because Saudi Arabia does not enforce non-domestic arbitral awards which contravene public policy. Furthermore, the reservation to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes allows Saudi Arabia to exclude petroleum and sovereign disputes. Interviews with foreign investors, who operate in Saudi Arabia highlight additional issues. Saudi Arabia ought not to procrastinate far-reaching structural reforms.

Keywords: FDI, Saudi, BITs, law

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia, Pedro Serrano

Abstract:

This paper studies the informational content of pricing errors in the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. The residuals from a non-arbitrage model are employed to construct a Price discrepancy estimate, or noise measure. The noise estimate is understood as an indicator of market distress and reflects frictions such as illiquidity. Empirically, the noise measure is computed for an extensive panel of CDS spreads. Our results reveal an important fraction of systematic risk is not priced in default swap contracts. When projecting the noise measure onto a set of financial variables, the panel-data estimates show that greater price discrepancies are systematically related to a higher level of offsetting transactions of CDS contracts. This evidence suggests that arbitrage capital flows exit the marketplace during time of distress, and this consistent with a market segmentation among investors and arbitrageurs where professional arbitrageurs are particularly ineffective at bringing prices to their fundamental values during turbulent periods. Our empirical findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry.

Keywords: credit default swaps, noise measure, illiquidity, capital arbitrage

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Authors: Nura Suleiman

Abstract:

The foreign policy of any country or nation is intended to promote and protect the country’s national interest. To achieve this interest, a country has to be guided by certain principles and influence of domestic and international conditions. The history of Nigerian foreign policy is directed to defend its sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, to promote and sustain the economic well-being of Nigerians, and promotion of Africa and world peace with justice. With the change of time and leadership, coupled with corruption, despite all the foreign policy determinants endowed with Nigeria as a country, sacrificed its foreign interest for the benefit of the western powers, by this it lost the opportunity to formulate policies according to its own need and desires.

Keywords: foreign policy, Nigeria, Western power

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