Search results for: accurate forecast

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Ismaila Olabisi Ogundiji, Hakeem Mayowa Olujide, Qasim Usamot

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The main reasons for site-specific management for agricultural inputs are to increase the profitability of crop production, to protect the environment and to improve products’ quality. Information about the variability of different soil attributes within a field is highly essential for the decision-making process. Lack of fast and accurate acquisition of soil characteristics remains one of the biggest limitations of precision agriculture due to being expensive and time-consuming. Adaptive sampling has been proven as an accurate and affordable sampling technique for planning within a field for site-specific management of agricultural inputs. This study employed spatial uncertainty of soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) estimates to identify adaptive re-survey areas in the field. The original dataset was grouped into validation and calibration groups where the calibration group was sub-grouped into three sets of different measurements pass intervals. A conditional simulation was performed on the field ECa to evaluate the ECa spatial uncertainty estimates by the use of the geostatistical technique. The grouping of high-uncertainty areas for each set was done using image segmentation in MATLAB, then, high and low area value-separate was identified. Finally, an adaptive re-survey was carried out on those areas of high-uncertainty. Adding adaptive re-surveying significantly minimized the time required for resampling whole field and resulted in ECa with minimal error. For the most spacious transect, the root mean square error (RMSE) yielded from an initial crude sampling survey was minimized after an adaptive re-survey, which was close to that value of the ECa yielded with an all-field re-survey. The estimated sampling time for the adaptive re-survey was found to be 45% lesser than that of all-field re-survey. The results indicate that designing adaptive sampling through spatial uncertainty models significantly mitigates sampling cost, and there was still conformity in the accuracy of the observations.

Keywords: soil electrical conductivity, adaptive sampling, conditional simulation, spatial uncertainty, site-specific management

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: N. Reichbach, A. Kuperman

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The paper describes a design of a monitoring system for super capacitor packs in propulsion systems, allowing determining the instantaneous energy capacity under power loading. The system contains real-time recursive-least-squares identification mechanism, estimating the values of pack capacitance and equivalent series resistance. These values are required for accurate calculation of the state-of-energy.

Keywords: real-time monitoring, RLS identification algorithm, state-of-energy, super capacitor

Procedia PDF Downloads 528

Authors: Deniz Guven, Wil Ward, Jinming Duan, Li Bai

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Over the past two decades or so, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) has been used to diagnose retina and optic nerve diseases. The retinal nerve fibre layer, for example, is a powerful diagnostic marker for detecting and staging glaucoma. With the advances in optical imaging hardware, the adoption of OCT is now commonplace in clinics. More and more OCT images are being generated, and for these OCT images to have clinical applicability, accurate automated OCT image segmentation software is needed. Oct image segmentation is still an active research area, as OCT images are inherently noisy, with the multiplicative speckling noise. Simple edge detection algorithms are unsuitable for detecting retinal layer boundaries in OCT images. Intensity fluctuation, motion artefact, and the presence of blood vessels also decrease further OCT image quality. In this paper, we introduce a new method for segmenting three-dimensional (3D) OCT images. This involves the use of a Kalman filter, which is commonly used in computer vision for object tracking. The Kalman filter is applied to the 3D OCT image volume to track the retinal layer boundaries through the slices within the volume and thus segmenting the 3D image. Specifically, after some pre-processing of the OCT images, points on the retinal layer boundaries in the first image are identified, and curve fitting is applied to them such that the layer boundaries can be represented by the coefficients of the curve equations. These coefficients then form the state space for the Kalman Filter. The filter then produces an optimal estimate of the current state of the system by updating its previous state using the measurements available in the form of a feedback control loop. The results show that the algorithm can be used to segment the retinal layers in OCT images. One of the limitations of the current algorithm is that the curve representation of the retinal layer boundary does not work well when the layer boundary is split into two, e.g., at the optic nerve, the layer boundary split into two. This maybe resolved by using a different approach to representing the boundaries, such as b-splines or level sets. The use of a Kalman filter shows promise to developing accurate and effective 3D OCT segmentation methods.

Keywords: optical coherence tomography, image segmentation, Kalman filter, object tracking

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Authors: Farzaneh Khorram

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This paper endeavors to construct a block model to assess grinding energy consumption (CCE) and pinpoint blocks with the highest potential for energy usage during the grinding process within a specified region. Leveraging geostatistical techniques, particularly joint estimation, or simulation, based on geometallurgical data from various mineral processing stages, our objective is to forecast CCE across the study area. The dataset encompasses variables obtained from 2754 drill samples and a block model comprising 4680 blocks. The initial analysis encompassed exploratory data examination, variography, multivariate analysis, and the delineation of geological and structural units. Subsequent analysis involved the assessment of contacts between these units and the estimation of CCE via cokriging, considering its correlation with SPI. The selection of blocks exhibiting maximum CCE holds paramount importance for cost estimation, production planning, and risk mitigation. The study conducted exploratory data analysis on lithology, rock type, and failure variables, revealing seamless boundaries between geometallurgical units. Simulation methods, such as Plurigaussian and Turning band, demonstrated more realistic outcomes compared to cokriging, owing to the inherent characteristics of geometallurgical data and the limitations of kriging methods.

Keywords: geometallurgy, multivariate analysis, plurigaussian, turning band method, cokriging

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Authors: Yaghoubi N., Moore Z., Van Der Veen S. M., Pidcoe P. E., Thomas J. S., Dexheimer B.

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Optoelectronic 3D motion capture systems, such as the Vicon kinematic system, are widely utilized in biomedical research to track joint motion. These systems are considered powerful and accurate measurement tools with <2 mm average error. However, these systems are costly and may be difficult to implement and utilize in a clinical setting. 3D virtual reality (VR) is gaining popularity as an affordable and accessible tool to investigate motor control and perception in a controlled, immersive environment. The HTC Vive VR system includes puck-style trackers that seamlessly integrate into its VR environments. These affordable, wireless, lightweight trackers may be more feasible for clinical kinematic data collection. However, the accuracy of HTC Vive Trackers (3.0), when compared to optoelectronic 3D motion capture systems, remains unclear. In this preliminary study, we compared the HTC Vive Tracker system to a Vicon kinematic system in a simulated lumbar flexion task. A 6-DOF robot arm (SCORBOT ER VII, Eshed Robotec/RoboGroup, Rosh Ha’Ayin, Israel) completed various reaching movements to mimic increasing levels of hip flexion (15°, 30°, 45°). Light reflective markers, along with one HTC Vive Tracker (3.0), were placed on the rigid segment separating the elbow and shoulder of the robot. We compared position measures simultaneously collected from both systems. Our preliminary analysis shows no significant differences between the Vicon motion capture system and the HTC Vive tracker in the Z axis, regardless of hip flexion. In the X axis, we found no significant differences between the two systems at 15 degrees of hip flexion but minimal differences at 30 and 45 degrees, ranging from .047 cm ± .02 SE (p = .03) at 30 degrees hip flexion to .194 cm ± .024 SE (p < .0001) at 45 degrees of hip flexion. In the Y axis, we found a minimal difference for 15 degrees of hip flexion only (.743 cm ± .275 SE; p = .007). This preliminary analysis shows that the HTC Vive Tracker may be an appropriate, affordable option for gross motor motion capture when the Vicon system is not available, such as in clinical settings. Further research is needed to compare these two motion capture systems in different body poses and for different body segments.

Keywords: lumbar, vivetracker, viconsystem, 3dmotion, ROM

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Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

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In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

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Authors: Niloofar Yousefi, Marie Alaghband, Ivan Garibay

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With the increase of credit card usage, the volume of credit card misuse also has significantly increased, which may cause appreciable financial losses for both credit card holders and financial organizations issuing credit cards. As a result, financial organizations are working hard on developing and deploying credit card fraud detection methods, in order to adapt to ever-evolving, increasingly sophisticated defrauding strategies and identifying illicit transactions as quickly as possible to protect themselves and their customers. Compounding on the complex nature of such adverse strategies, credit card fraudulent activities are rare events compared to the number of legitimate transactions. Hence, the challenge to develop fraud detection that are accurate and efficient is substantially intensified and, as a consequence, credit card fraud detection has lately become a very active area of research. In this work, we provide a survey of current techniques most relevant to the problem of credit card fraud detection. We carry out our survey in two main parts. In the first part, we focus on studies utilizing classical machine learning models, which mostly employ traditional transnational features to make fraud predictions. These models typically rely on some static physical characteristics, such as what the user knows (knowledge-based method), or what he/she has access to (object-based method). In the second part of our survey, we review more advanced techniques of user authentication, which use behavioral biometrics to identify an individual based on his/her unique behavior while he/she is interacting with his/her electronic devices. These approaches rely on how people behave (instead of what they do), which cannot be easily forged. By providing an overview of current approaches and the results reported in the literature, this survey aims to drive the future research agenda for the community in order to develop more accurate, reliable and scalable models of credit card fraud detection.

Keywords: Credit Card Fraud Detection, User Authentication, Behavioral Biometrics, Machine Learning, Literature Survey

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Authors: Ahcene Boucied

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In this paper, a case study is conducted to analyze the effectiveness of web pages designed in Barbados for the tourism and hospitality industry. The assessment is made from two perspectives: to understand how the Barbados’ tourism industry is using the web, and to identify the effect of information technology on economic issues. In return, this is used: (a) to provide interested parties with accurate information and marketing insight necessary for decision making for electronic commerce/e-commerce, and (b) to demonstrate pragmatic difficulties in searching and designing web pages.

Keywords: segmentation, tourism stakeholders, destination marketing, case study

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Authors: Joy Cao, Min Zhou

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Purpose: Acute Type A aortic dissection is a well-known cause of extremely high mortality rate. A highly accurate and cost-effective non-invasive predictor is critically needed so that the patient can be treated at earlier stage. Although various CFD approaches have been tried to establish some prediction frameworks, they are sensitive to uncertainty in both image segmentation and boundary conditions. Tedious pre-processing and demanding calibration procedures requirement further compound the issue, thus hampering their clinical applicability. Using the latest physics informed deep learning methods to establish an accurate and cost-effective predictor framework are amongst the main goals for a better Type A aortic dissection treatment. Methods: Via training a novel physics-informed deep residual network, with non-invasive 4D MRI displacement vectors as inputs, the trained model can cost-effectively calculate all these biomarkers: aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI, which are used to predict potential type A aortic dissection to avoid the high mortality events down the road. Results: The proposed deep learning method has been successfully trained and tested with both synthetic 3D aneurysm dataset and a clinical dataset in the aortic dissection context using Google colab environment. In both cases, the model has generated aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI results matching the expected patient’s health status. Conclusion: The proposed novel physics-informed deep residual network shows great potential to create a cost-effective, non-invasive predictor framework. Additional physics-based de-noising algorithm will be added to make the model more robust to clinical data noises. Further studies will be conducted in collaboration with big institutions such as Cleveland Clinic with more clinical samples to further improve the model’s clinical applicability.

Keywords: type-a aortic dissection, deep residual networks, blood flow modeling, data-driven modeling, non-invasive diagnostics, deep learning, artificial intelligence.

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Authors: Wolfram Jahn, Jose Manuel Munita

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While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of fire scenarios are commonly used in the design of buildings, less attention has been given to the use of CFD simulations as an operational tool for the fire services. The reason of this lack of attention lies mainly in the fact that CFD simulations typically take large periods of time to complete, and their results would thus not be available in time to be of use during an emergency. Firefighters often face uncertain conditions when entering a building to attack a fire. They would greatly benefit from a technology based on predictive fire simulations, able to assist their decision-making process. The principal constraint to faster CFD simulations is the fine grid necessary to solve accurately the physical processes that govern a fire. This paper explores the possibility of overcoming this constraint and using coarse grid CFD simulations for fire scenarios, and proposes a methodology to use the simulation results in a meaningful way that can be used by the fire fighters during an emergency. Data from real scale compartment fire tests were used to compare CFD fire models with different grid arrangements, and empirical correlations were obtained to interpolate data points into the grids. The results show that the strongly predominant effect of the heat release rate of the fire on the fluid dynamics allows for the use of coarse grids with relatively low overall impact of simulation results. Simulations with an acceptable level of accuracy could be run in real time, thus making them useful as a forecasting tool for emergency response purposes.

Keywords: CFD, fire simulations, emergency response, forecast

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Marie Alaghband, Niloofar Yousefi, Ivan Garibay

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Facial expressions are important parts of both gesture and sign language recognition systems. Despite the recent advances in both fields, annotated facial expression datasets in the context of sign language are still scarce resources. In this manuscript, we introduce an annotated sequenced facial expression dataset in the context of sign language, comprising over 3000 facial images extracted from the daily news and weather forecast of the public tv-station PHOENIX. Unlike the majority of currently existing facial expression datasets, FePh provides sequenced semi-blurry facial images with different head poses, orientations, and movements. In addition, in the majority of images, identities are mouthing the words, which makes the data more challenging. To annotate this dataset we consider primary, secondary, and tertiary dyads of seven basic emotions of "sad", "surprise", "fear", "angry", "neutral", "disgust", and "happy". We also considered the "None" class if the image’s facial expression could not be described by any of the aforementioned emotions. Although we provide FePh as a facial expression dataset of signers in sign language, it has a wider application in gesture recognition and Human Computer Interaction (HCI) systems.

Keywords: annotated facial expression dataset, gesture recognition, sequenced facial expression dataset, sign language recognition

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Jinjun Jiang, Lianzhong Chen, Rui Xu

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The accurate of model attitude angel plays an important role on the aerodynamic test results in the wind tunnel test. The original method applies the spherical coordinate system transformation to obtain attitude angel calculation.The model attitude angel is obtained by coordinate transformation and spherical surface mapping applying the nominal attitude angel (the balance attitude angel in the wind tunnel coordinate system) indicated by the mechanism. First, the coordinate transformation of this method is not only complex but also difficult to establish the transformed relationship between the space coordinate systems especially after many steps of coordinate transformation, moreover it cannot realize the iterative calculation of the interference relationship between attitude angels; Second, during the calculate process to solve the problem the arc is approximately used to replace the straight line, the angel for the tangent value, and the inverse trigonometric function is applied. Therefore, in the calculation of attitude angel, the process is complex and inaccurate, which can be solved approximately when calculating small attack angel. However, with the advancing development of modern aerodynamic unsteady research, the aircraft tends to develop high or super large attack angel and unsteadyresearch field.According to engineering practice and vector theory, the concept of vector angel coordinate systemis proposed for the first time, and the vector angel coordinate system of attitude angel is established.With the iterative correction calculation and avoiding the problem of approximate and inverse trigonometric function solution, the model attitude calculation process is carried out in detail, which validates that the calculation accuracy and accuracy of model attitude angels are improved.Based on engineering and theoretical methods, a vector angel coordinate systemis established for the first time, which gives the transformation and angel definition relations between different flight attitude coordinate systems, that can accurately calculate the attitude angel of the corresponding coordinate systemand determine its direction, especially in the channel coupling calculation, the calculation of the attitude angel between the coordinate systems is only related to the angel, and has nothing to do with the change order s of the coordinate system, whichsimplifies the calculation process.

Keywords: attitude angel, angel vector coordinate system, iterative calculation, spherical coordinate system, wind tunnel test

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Authors: S. Louhibi-Fasla, H. Rekab Djabri, H. Achour

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The aim of this work is to investigate the structural phase-transitions and electronic properties of copper halides. Our calculations were performed within the PLW extension to the first principle FPLMTO method, which enables an accurate treatment of all kinds of structures including the open ones. Results are given for lattice parameters, bulk modulus and its first derivatives in five different surface phases, and are compared with the available theoretical and experimental data. In the zinc-blende (B3) and PbO (B10) phases, the fundamental gap remains direct with both the top of VB and the bottom of CB located at Γ.

Keywords: FPLMTO, structural properties, Copper halides, phase transitions, ground state phase

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Authors: Zhao Gao, Eran Edirisinghe

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The production of an accurate sketch of a suspect based on a verbal description obtained from a witness is an essential task for most criminal investigations. The criminal investigation system employs specifically trained professional artists to manually draw a facial image of the suspect according to the descriptions of an eyewitness for subsequent identification. Within the advancement of Deep Learning, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have shown great promise in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Additionally, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have also proven to be very effective in image generation. In this study, a trained GAN conditioned on textual features such as keywords automatically encoded from a verbal description of a human face using an RNN is used to generate photo-realistic facial images for criminal investigations. The intention of the proposed system is to map corresponding features into text generated from verbal descriptions. With this, it becomes possible to generate many reasonably accurate alternatives to which the witness can use to hopefully identify a suspect from. This reduces subjectivity in decision making both by the eyewitness and the artist while giving an opportunity for the witness to evaluate and reconsider decisions. Furthermore, the proposed approach benefits law enforcement agencies by reducing the time taken to physically draw each potential sketch, thus increasing response times and mitigating potentially malicious human intervention. With publically available 'CelebFaces Attributes Dataset' (CelebA) and additionally providing verbal description as training data, the proposed architecture is able to effectively produce facial structures from given text. Word Embeddings are learnt by applying the RNN architecture in order to perform semantic parsing, the output of which is fed into the GAN for synthesizing photo-realistic images. Rather than the grid search method, a metaheuristic search based on genetic algorithms is applied to evolve the network with the intent of achieving optimal hyperparameters in a fraction the time of a typical brute force approach. With the exception of the ‘CelebA’ training database, further novel test cases are supplied to the network for evaluation. Witness reports detailing criminals from Interpol or other law enforcement agencies are sampled on the network. Using the descriptions provided, samples are generated and compared with the ground truth images of a criminal in order to calculate the similarities. Two factors are used for performance evaluation: The Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) and the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR). A high percentile output from this performance matrix should attribute to demonstrating the accuracy, in hope of proving that the proposed approach can be an effective tool for law enforcement agencies. The proposed approach to criminal facial image generation has potential to increase the ratio of criminal cases that can be ultimately resolved using eyewitness information gathering.

Keywords: RNN, GAN, NLP, facial composition, criminal investigation

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Authors: Martin Mensinger, Marjolaine Pfaffinger, Matthias Haslbeck

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The maintenance and expansion of the railway network represents a central task for transport planning in the future. In addition to the ultimate limit states, the aspects of resource conservation and sustainability are increasingly more necessary to include in the basic engineering. Therefore, as part of the AiF research project, ‘Integrated assessment of steel and composite railway bridges in accordance with sustainability criteria’, the entire lifecycle of engineering structures is involved in planning and evaluation, offering a way to optimize the design of steel bridges. In order to reduce the life cycle costs and increase the profitability of steel structures, it is particularly necessary to consider the demands on hanger connections resulting from fatigue. In order for accurate analysis, a number simulations were conducted as part of the research project on a finite element model of a reference bridge, which gives an indication of the internal forces of the individual structural components of a tied arch bridge, depending on the stress incurred by various types of trains. The calculations were carried out on a detailed FE-model, which allows an extraordinarily accurate modeling of the stiffness of all parts of the constructions as it is made up surface elements. The results point to a large impact of the formation of details on fatigue-related changes in stress, on the one hand, and on the other, they could depict construction-specific specifics over the course of adding stress. Comparative calculations with varied axle-stress distribution also provide information about the sensitivity of the results compared to the imposition of stress and axel distribution on the stress-resultant development. The calculated diagrams help to achieve an optimized hanger connection design through improved durability, which helps to reduce the maintenance costs of rail networks and to give practical application notes for the formation of details.

Keywords: fatigue, influence line, life cycle, tied arch bridge

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Authors: S. Adjiri-Bailiche, S. M. Boudia, H. Daaou, S. Hadouche, A. Benzaoui

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In this work the study of changes in the wind speed depending on the altitude is calculated and described by the model of the neural networks, the use of measured data, the speed and direction of wind, temperature and the humidity at 10 m are used as input data and as data targets at 50m above sea level. Comparing predict wind speeds and extrapolated at 50 m above sea level is performed. The results show that the prediction by the method of artificial neural networks is very accurate.

Keywords: MATLAB, neural network, power low, vertical extrapolation, wind energy, wind speed

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Authors: Yang Zhou, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is a fundamental problem in urban environment, facilitating the smart management of various businesses, such as taxi dispatching, bike relocation, and stampede alert. Most earlier methods rely on identifying the intrinsic spatial-temporal correlation to forecast. However, the complex nature of this problem entails a more sophisticated solution that can simultaneously capture the mutual influence of both adjacent and far-flung areas, with the information of time-dimension also incorporated seamlessly. To tackle this difficulty, we propose a new multi-phase architecture, DSTDS (Dual Spatial-Temporal Data Scheme for traffic prediction), that aims to reveal the underlying relationship that determines future traffic trend. First, a graph-based neural network with an attention mechanism is devised to obtain the static features of the road network. Then, a multi-granularity recurrent neural network is built in conjunction with the knowledge from a grid-based model. Subsequently, the preceding output is fed into a spatial-temporal super-resolution module. With this 3-phase structure, we carry out extensive experiments on several real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which surpasses several state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: traffic prediction, spatial-temporal, recurrent neural network, dual data scheme

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Authors: Matthew Heidman, Susan Dallabrida, Analice Costa

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Background:Accuracy of caregiver reported outcomes is essential for infant growth and tolerability study success. Crying/fussiness, stool consistencies, and other gastrointestinal characteristics are important parameters regarding tolerability, and inter-caregiver reporting can see a significant amount of subjectivity and vary greatly within a study, compromising data. This study sought to elucidate how caregiver reported questions related to stool frequency are answered before and after a short amount of training and how training impacts caregivers’ understanding, and how they would answer the question. Methods:A digital survey was issued for 90 daysin the US (n=121) and 30 days in Mexico (n=88), targeting respondents with children ≤4 years of age. Respondents were asked a question in two formats, first without a line of training text and second with a line of training text. The question set was as follows, “If your baby had stool in his/her diaper and you changed the diaper and 10 min later there was more stool in the diaper, how many stools would you report this as?” followed by the same question beginning with “If you were given the instruction that IF there are at least 5 minutes in between stools, then it counts as two (2) stools…”.Four response items were provided for both questions, 1) 2 stools, 2) 1stool, 3) it depends on how much stool was in the first versus the second diaper, 4) There is not enough information to be able to answer the question. Response frequencies between questions were compared. Results: Responses to the question without training saw some variability in the US, with 69% selecting “2 stools”,11% selecting “1 stool”, 14% selecting “it depends on how much stool was in the first versus the second diaper”, and 7% selecting “There is not enough information to be able to answer the question” and in Mexico respondents selected 9%, 78%, 13%, and 0% respectively. However, responses to the question after training saw more consolidation in the US, with 85% of respondents selecting“2 stools,” representing an increase in those selecting the correct answer. Additionally in Mexico, with 84% of respondents selecting “1 episode” representing an increase in the those selecting the correct response. Conclusions: Caregiver reported outcomes are critical for infant growth and tolerability studies, however, they can be highly subjective and see a high variability of responses without guidance. Training is critical to standardize all caregivers’ perspective regarding how to answer questions accurately in order to provide an accurate dataset.

Keywords: infant nutrition, clinical trial optimization, stool reporting, decentralized clinical trials

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Authors: Khadija Refouh

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Culture bound-expressions have been a bottleneck for Natural Language Processing (NLP) and comprehension, especially in the case of machine translation (MT). In the last decade, the field of machine translation has greatly advanced. Neural machine translation NMT has recently achieved considerable development in the quality of translation that outperformed previous traditional translation systems in many language pairs. Neural machine translation NMT is an Artificial Intelligence AI and deep neural networks applied to language processing. Despite this development, there remain some serious challenges that face neural machine translation NMT when translating culture bounded-expressions, especially for low resources language pairs such as Arabic-English and Arabic-French, which is not the case with well-established language pairs such as English-French. Machine translation of opaque idioms from English into French are likely to be more accurate than translating them from English into Arabic. For example, Google Translate Application translated the sentence “What a bad weather! It runs cats and dogs.” to “يا له من طقس سيء! تمطر القطط والكلاب” into the target language Arabic which is an inaccurate literal translation. The translation of the same sentence into the target language French was “Quel mauvais temps! Il pleut des cordes.” where Google Translate Application used the accurate French corresponding idioms. This paper aims to perform NMT experiments towards better translation of opaque idioms using high quality clean multilingual corpus. This Corpus will be collected analytically from human generated idiom translation. AutoML translation, a Google Neural Machine Translation Platform, is used as a custom translation model to improve the translation of opaque idioms. The automatic evaluation of the custom model will be compared to the Google NMT using Bilingual Evaluation Understudy Score BLEU. BLEU is an algorithm for evaluating the quality of text which has been machine-translated from one natural language to another. Human evaluation is integrated to test the reliability of the Blue Score. The researcher will examine syntactical, lexical, and semantic features using Halliday's functional theory.

Keywords: multilingual corpora, natural language processing (NLP), neural machine translation (NMT), opaque idioms

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Authors: Ana María Rojas Chaparro, Cristian Camilo Sarmiento Chaves

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Given the growing importance of logistics as a discipline for efficient management of materials flow and information, the adoption of tools that permit to create facilities in making decisions based on a global perspective of the system studied has been essential. The article shows how from a concepts-based model is possible to organize and represent in appropriate way the reality, showing accurate and timely information, features that make this kind of models an ideal component to support an information system, recognizing that information as relevant to establish particularities that allow get a better performance about the evaluated sector.

Keywords: system, information, conceptual model, logistics

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Authors: Mina Kalantarzadeh, Claire Lockie-Williams, Caroline Howard

Abstract:

DNA barcoding is increasingly used for identification of medicinal plants worldwide. In the last decade, a large number of DNA barcodes have been generated, and their application in species identification explored. The success of DNA barcoding process relies on the accuracy of the results from polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification step which could be negatively affected due to a presence of inhibitors or degraded DNA in herbal samples. An established DNA reference material can be used to support molecular characterisation protocols and prove system suitability, for fast and accurate identification of plant species. The present study describes the use of a novel reference material, the trnH-psbA British Pharmacopoeia Nucleic Acid Reference Material (trnH-psbA BPNARM), which was produced to aid in the identification of Ocimum tenuiflorum L., a widely used herb. During DNA barcoding of O. tenuiflorum, PCR amplifications of isolated DNA produced inconsistent results, suggesting an issue with either the method or DNA quality of the tested samples. The trnH-psbA BPNARM was produced and tested to check for the issues caused during PCR amplification. It was added to the plant material as control DNA before extraction and was co-extracted and amplified by PCR. PCR analyses revealed that the amplification was not as successful as expected which suggested that the amplification is affected by presence of inhibitors co-extracted from plant materials. Various potential issues were assessed during DNA extraction and optimisations were made accordingly. A DNA barcoding protocol for O. tenuiflorum was published in the British Pharmacopoeia 2016, which included the reference sequence. The trnH-psbA BPNARM accelerated degradation test which investigates the stability of the reference material over time demonstrated that it has been stable when stored at 56 °C for a year. Using this protocol and trnH-psbA reference material provides a fast and accurate method for identification of O. tenuiflorum. The optimisations of the DNA extraction using the trnH-psbA BPNARM provided a signposting method which can assist in overcoming common problems encountered when using molecular methods with medicinal plants.

Keywords: degradation, DNA extraction, nucleic acid reference material, trnH-psbA

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Authors: Abid Boudiar

Abstract:

We propose a simple model to obtain an exact expression of Tc/(Tc,max) for the temperature-doping phase diagram of superconducting cuprates. We showed that our model predicted most phase diagram scenario. We found the exact special doping points p(opt), p(qcp) and an accurate E(g,max). Some other properties such as the stripes length 100.1°A and the energy gap in cuprates chain
6meV can also be calculated exactly. Another interesting consequence of this simple picture is the new magic numbers and the ability to express everything using a (Tc,p) diagram via the golden ratio.

Keywords: superconducting cuprates, phase, pseudogap, hole doping, strips, golden ratio, soliton

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Alkaben Patel

Abstract:

The proposed RP-HPLC method is easy, rapid, economical, precise and accurate stability indicating RP-HPLC method for simultaneous estimation of Astorvastatin and Methylcobalamine in their combined dosage form has been developed.The separation was achieved by LC-20 AT C18(250mm*4.6mm*2.6mm)Colum and water (pH 3.5): methanol 70:30 as mobile phase, at a flow rate of 1ml/min. wavelength of this dosage form is 215nm.The drug is related to stress condition of hydrolysis, oxidation, photolysis and thermal degradation.

Keywords: RP- HPLC, atorvastatin, methylcobalamine, method, development, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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Authors: Bouthiba Amina

Abstract:

The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: L. Capitanu, V. Floresci, L. L. Badita

Abstract:

Starting from the idea that the greatest pressure and velocity of composite melted is in the die nozzle, was an experimental nozzle with wear samples of sizes and weights which can be measured with precision as good. For a larger accuracy of measurements, we used a method for radiometric measuring, extremely accurate. Different nitriding steels have been studied as nitriding treatments, as well as some special steels and alloyed steels. Besides these, there have been preliminary attempts made to describe and checking corrosive action of thermoplastics on metals.

Keywords: plastics, composites with short glass fibres, moulding, wear, experimental modelling, glass fibres content influence

Procedia PDF Downloads 261