Search results for: July 15

Authors: Raha Bahreini

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This paper discusses the roll-back of women’s sexual and reproductive rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has come in the wake of a striking shift in the country’s official population policies. Since the late 1980s, Iran has won worldwide praise for its sexual and reproductive health and services, which have contributed to a steady decline in the country’s fertility rate–from 7.0 births per women in 1980 to 5.5 in 1988, 2.8 in 1996 and 1.85 in 2014. This is owed to a significant increase in the voluntary use of modern contraception in both rural and urban areas. In 1976, only 37 per cent of women were using at least one method of contraception; by 2014 this figure had reportedly risen to a high of nearly 79 per cent for married girls and women living in urban areas and 73.78 per cent for those living in rural areas. Such progress may soon be halted. In July 2012, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei denounced Iran’s family planning policies as an imitation of Western lifestyle. He exhorted the authorities to increase Iran’s population to 150 to 200 million (from around 78.5 million), including by cutting subsidies for contraceptive methods and dismantling the state’s Family and Population Planning Programme. Shortly thereafter, Iran’s Minister of Health and Medical Education announced the scrapping of the budget for the state-funded Family and Population Planning Programme. Iran’s Parliament subsequently introduced two bills; the Comprehensive Population and Exaltation of Family Bill (Bill 315), and the Bill to Increase Fertility Rates and Prevent Population Decline (Bill 446). Bill 446 outlaws voluntary tubectomies, which are believed to be the second most common method of modern contraception in Iran, and blocks access to information about contraception, denying women the opportunity to make informed decisions about the number and spacing of their children. Coupled with the elimination of state funding for Iran’s Family and Population Programme, the move would undoubtedly result in greater numbers of unwanted pregnancies, forcing more women to seek illegal and unsafe abortions. Bill 315 proposes various discriminatory measures in the areas of employment, divorce, and protection from domestic violence in order to promote a culture wherein wifedom and child-bearing is seen as women’s primary duty. The Bill, for example, instructs private and public entities to prioritize, in sequence, men with children, married men without children and married women with children when hiring for certain jobs. It also bans the recruitment of single individuals as family law lawyers, public and private school teachers and members of the academic boards of universities and higher education institutes. The paper discusses the consequences of these initiatives which would, if continued, set the human rights of women and girls in Iran back by decades, leaving them with a future shaped by increased inequality, discrimination, poor health, limited choices and restricted freedoms, in breach of Iran’s international human rights obligations.

Keywords: family planning and reproductive health, gender equality and empowerment of women, human rights, population growth

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Authors: Mehmet Salih Bayraktutan, Emre Tokmak

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Great Ararat Volcano is the highest peak in South Caucasus Volcanic Plateau. Uplifted by Quaternary basaltic pyroclastic and lava flows. Numerous volcanic cones formed along with the tensional fractures under N-S compressional geodynamic framework. Basaltic flows have fresh surface morphology give ages of 650-680 K years. Hyperstene andesites constitute a major mass of Greater Ararat gives ages of 450-490 K years. During the early eruption period, predominately pyroclastics, cinder, lapilly-ash volcanic bombs were extruded. Third-period eruptions dominantly basaltic lava flows. Andesitic domes aligned along with the NW-SE striking fractures. Hyalo basalt and hornblende basaltic lavas are the latest lava eruptions. Hyalo-basaltic eruptions occurred via parasitic cones distributed far from the center. Parasitic cones are most common at the foot of Mount covered by recent NW flowing basaltic lava. Some of the cones are distributed on a circular pattern. One of the most hazardous disasters recorded in Eastern Turkey was July 1840 Cehennem Canyon Flood. Volcanic activities seismically triggered resulted in melting of glacier cap, mixed with ash and pyroclastics, flowed down along the Valley. Mud rich Slush urged catastrophically northwards, crossed Ars River and damned Surmeli Basin, forming reservoir behind. Ararat volcanoes are located on NW-SE striking Agri Fault Zone. Right lateral extensional faults, along which a series of andesitic domes formed. Great Ararat, in general strato-type volcano. This huge structure, developed in two main parts with different topographic and morphological features. The large lower base covers a widespread area composed of predominantly pyroclastics, ignimbrites, aglomerates, thick pumice, perlite deposits. Approximately 1/3 of the Crest by height formed of this basement. And 2/3 of the upper part with a conic- shape composed of basaltic lava flows. The active tectonic structure consists of three different patterns. The first network is radially distributed fractures formed during the last stage of lava eruptions. The second group of active faults striking in NW direction, and continue in N30W strike, formes Igdir Fault Zone. The third set of faults, dipping in the northwest with 75-80 degrees, strikes NE- SW across the whole Mount, slicing Great Ararat into four segments. In the upper stage of Cehennem Canyon, this set cutting volcanic layers caused numerous Waterfalls, Rock Avalanches, Mud Flows along the canyon, threatens the Village of Yanidogan, at the apex of flood deposits. Great Ararat Region has high seismo-tectonic risk and by occurrence frequency and magnitude, which caused in history caused heavy disasters, at villages surrounding the Ararat Basement.

Keywords: Eastern Turkey, geohazard, great ararat volcano, seismo-tectonic features

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Authors: Jacqueline Eleonora Ek, Michael Spiteri, Chris Giordimaina, Pierre Agius

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Background: Malta is known for being a key player as a frontline country with regard to irregular immigration from Africa to Europe. Every year the island experiences an influx of migrants as boat movement across the Mediterranean continues to be a humanitarian challenge. Irregular immigration and applying for asylum is both a lengthy and mentally demanding process. Those doing so are often faced with multiple challenges, which can adversely affect their mental health. Between January and August 2020, Malta disembarked 2 162 people rescued at sea, 463 of them between July & August. Given the small size of the Maltese islands, this regulation places a disproportionately large burden on the country, creating a backlog in the processing of asylum applications resulting in increased time periods of detention. These delays reverberate throughout multiple management pathways resulting in prolonged periods of detention and challenging access to health services. Objectives: To better understand the spatial dimensions of this humanitarian crisis, this study aims to assess disparities in the acute medical management of migrants presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute mental health presentations as compared to that of local and non-local residents. Method: In this retrospective study, 17795 consecutive ED attendances were reviewed to look for acute mental health presentations. These were further evaluated to assess discrepancies in transportation routes to hospital, nature of presenting complaint, effects of language barriers, use of CT brain, treatment given at ED, availability of psychiatric reviews, and final admission/discharge plans. Results: Of the ED attendances, 92.3% were local residents, and 7.7% were non-locals. Of the non-locals, 13.8% were migrants, and 86.2% were other-non-locals. Acute mental health presentations were seen in 1% of local residents; this increased to 20.6% in migrants. 56.4% of migrants attended with deliberate self-harm; this was lower in local residents, 28.9%. Contrastingly, in local residents, the most common presenting complaint was suicidal thought/ low mood 37.3%, the incidence was similar in migrants at 33.3%. The main differences included 12.8% of migrants presenting with refused oral intake while only 0.6% of local residents presented with the same complaints. 7.7% of migrants presented with a reduced level of consciousness, no local residents presented with this same issue. Physicians documented a language barrier in 74.4% of migrants. 25.6% were noted to be completely uncommunicative. Further investigations included the use of a CT scan in 12% of local residents and in 35.9% of migrants. The most common treatment administered to migrants was supportive fluids 15.4%, the most common in local residents was benzodiazepines 15.1%. Voluntary psychiatric admissions were seen in 33.3% of migrants and 24.7% of locals. Involuntary admissions were seen in 23% of migrants and 13.3% of locals. Conclusion: Results showed multiple disparities in health management. A meeting was held between entities responsible for migrant health in Malta, including the emergency department, primary health care, migrant detention services, and Malta Red Cross. Currently, national quality-improvement initiatives are underway to form new pathways to improve patient-centered care. These include an interpreter unit, centralized handover sheets, and a dedicated migrant health service.

Keywords: emergency department, communication, health, migration

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Authors: Sum Lau, Wing Chung Cleo Lau, Wing Yan Chu, Long Ching Ip, Wan Yin Lo, Jo Long Sam Yau, Ka Ho Hui, Sze Yi Mak

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Biomedical engineering (BME) is an interdisciplinary subject where knowledge about biology and medicine is applied to novel applications, solving clinical problems. This subject is crucial for cities such as Hong Kong, where the burden on the medical system is rising due to reasons like the ageing population. Hong Kong, who is actively boosting technological advancements in recent years, sets BME, or biotechnology, as a major category, as reflected in the 2018-19 Budget, where biotechnology was one of the four pillars for development. Over the years, while resources in terms of money and space have been provided, there has been a lack of talents expressed by both the academia and industry. While exogenous factors, such as COVID, may have hindered talents from outside Hong Kong to come, endogenous factors should also be considered. In particular, since there are already a few local universities offering BME programmes, their curriculum or style of education requires to be reviewed to intensify the network of the BME community and support post-academic career development. It was observed that while undergraduate (UG) studies focus on knowledge teaching with some technical training and postgraduate (PG) programmes concentrate on upstream research, the programmes are generally confined to the academic sector and lack connections to the industry. In light of that, a “Biomedical Innovation and Outreach Programme 2022” (“B.I.O.2022”) was held to connect students and professors from academia with clinicians and engineers from the industry, serving as a comparative approach to conventional education methods (UG and PG programmes from tertiary institutions). Over 100 participants, including undergraduates, postgraduates, secondary school students, researchers, engineers, and clinicians, took part in various outreach events such as conference and site visits, all held from June to July 2022. As a case study, this programme aimed to tackle the aforementioned problems with the theme of “4Cs” (connection, communication, collaboration, and commercialisation). The effectiveness of the programme is investigated by its ability to serve as an adult and continuing education and the effectiveness of causing social change to tackle current societal challenges, with the focus on tackling the lack of talents engaging in biomedical engineering. In this study, B.I.O.2022 is found to be able to complement the traditional educational methods, particularly in terms of knowledge exchange between the academia and the industry. With enhanced communications between participants from different career stages, there were students who followed up to visit or even work with the professionals after the programme. Furthermore, connections between the academia and industry could foster the generation of new knowledge, which ultimately pointed to commercialisation, adding value to the BME industry while filling the gap in terms of human resources. With the continuation of events like B.I.O.2022, it provides a promising starting point for the development and relationship strengthening of a BME community in Hong Kong, and shows potential as an alternative way of adult education or learning with societal benefits.

Keywords: biomedical engineering, adult education for social change, comparative methods and principles, lifelong learning, faced problems, promises, challenges and pitfalls

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Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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Authors: Crysovaladou Kefaloudi, Kassiani Mellou, Eirini Saranti-Papasaranti, Athanasios Koustenis, Chrysoula Botsi, Agapios Terzidis

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Recent migration crisis led to a vast migrant – refugees movement to Greece which created an urgent need for hosting settlements. Taken into account the protection of public health from possible pathogens related to water and food supply as well as waste and sewage accumulation, a 'Living Conditions Recording Form' was created in the context of 'PHILOS' European Program funded by the Asylum Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) of EU’s DG Migration and Home Affairs, in order to assess a number of environmental sanitation parameters, in refugees – migrants camps in mainland. The assessment will be completed until the end of July. From March to June 2017, mobile unit teams comprised of health inspectors of sub-action 2 of “PHILOS” proceeded with the assessment of living conditions in twenty-two out of thirty-one camps and 'Stata' was used for the statistical analysis of obtained information. Variables were grouped into the following categories: 1) Camp administration, 2) hosted population number, 3) accommodation, 4) heating installations, 5) personal hygiene, 6) sewage collection and disposal, 7) water supply, 8) waste collection and management, 9) pest control, 10) fire safety, 11) food handling and safety. Preliminary analysis of the results showed that camp administration was performed in 90% of the camps by a public authority with the coordination of various NGOs. The median number of hosted population was 222 ranging from 62 to 3200, and the median value of hosted population per accommodation type was 4 in 19 camps. Heating facilities were provided in 86.1% of camps. In 18.2 % of the camps, one personal hygiene facility was available per 6 people ranging in the rest of the camps from 1 per 3 to 1 per 20 hosted refugees-migrants. Waste and sewage collection was performed depending on populations demand in an adequate way in all recorded camps. In 90% of camps, water was supplied through the central water supply system. In 85% of camps quantity and quality of water supply inside camps was regularly monitored for microbial and chemical indices. Pest control was implemented in 86.4% of the camps as well as fire safety measures. Food was supplied by catering companies in 50% of the camps, and the quality and quantity food was monitored at a regular basis. In 77% of camps, food was prepared by the hosted population with the availability of proper storage conditions. Furthermore, in all camps, hosted population was provided with personal hygiene items and health sanitary educational programs were implemented in 77.3% of camps. In conclusion, in the majority of the camps, environmental sanitation parameters were satisfactory. However, waste and sewage accumulation, as well as inadequate pest control measures were recorded in some camps. The obtained data have led to a number of recommendations for the improvement of sanitary conditions, disseminated to all relevant stakeholders. Special emphasis was given to hygiene measures implementation during food handling by migrants – refugees, as well as to waste and sewage accumulation taking in to account the population’s cultural background.

Keywords: environmental sanitation parameters, food borne diseases risk assessment, refugee – migrants camps, water borne diseases risk assessment

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Authors: Mapule Maema

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The paper aims to highlight the role that community activism has played in promoting social justice around housing issues in the Western Cape. The Western Cape is one of the largest spatially segregated provinces in South Africa which continues to exhibit grave inequalities between cities, townships and farms. These inequalities cut across intersectional issues such as, race, class, gender, and politics. The main challenges facing marginalized communities in the Western Cape include access to housing, land and basic services. This is not peculiar to only the Western Cape, the entire country is facing similar challenges however the Western Cape is seen as a fasted urbanizing province in the country due to tourism. Various social movements have been formed across the country to counter these challenges, however, this paper focuses on the resilience communities have fostered despite the myriad housing and spatial crisis they are faced with. The paper focuses on the Legal Resource’s Centre’s clients from an informal settlement called Imizamo Yethu based in Hout Bay Valley area. The 18 hectare settlement houses approximately 33600 people. On the 21st July 2017, Hout Bay experienced violent protests following an eviction order passed by the City of Cape Town. The protest was characterized by tensions within the community regarding the super-blocking initiative which aims to establish roads in informal settlements to ensure basic services. Residents against the process argued that there were no proper consultations done to educate them on what this process entailed. Public participation is one of the objectives the municipalities aim to promote however it remains a great challenge. In order to highlight the experiences of the LRC clients in relation to what motivated their involvement in the movement, how it felt their participation, and aspirations, the paper will employ qualitative research methods. Qualitative research methods enable the researcher to get a deeper and nuanced understanding of the social world in the eyes of those who experienced it. It is a flexible methodology that enables one to also understand social processes and the significance they generate. Data will be collected through the use of the World Cafe as a focus group method. The World Café is a simple, effective and flexible format for hosting group dialogue. The steps taken when setting up a World Café includes the following: setting the context (why you are bringing people together and what you want to achieve), create hospitality space (make participants feel at home and free to discuss issues), explore questions that matter, connect diverse perspectives (the opportunity to actively contribute your thinking), listen together for patterns and insights, share collective discoveries and learnings. Secondary data will be used to augment the data collected. Stories of impact will be drawn from the exercises. This paper will contribute to the discourse of sustainable housing and urban development and the research outputs will be disseminated to the public for learning.

Keywords: community activism, influence, social justice, development

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Authors: Rupak Kumar Sarma, Ratul Saikia

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Macrophytes encompass major functional group in eutrophic wetland ecosystems. As a key functional element of freshwater lakes, they play a crucial role in regulating various wetland biogeochemical cycles, as well as maintain the biodiversity at the ecosystem level. The high carbon-rich underground biomass of macrophyte populations may harbour diverse microbial community having significant potential in maintaining different biogeochemical cycles. The present investigation was designed to study the macrophyte-microbe interaction in coupled nitrification and denitrification, considering Deepor Beel Lake (a Ramsar conservation site) of North East India as a model eutrophic system. Highly eutrophic sites of Deepor Beel were selected based on sediment oxygen demand and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen (P&N) concentration. Sediment redox potential and depth of the lake was chosen as the benchmark for collecting the plant and sediment samples. The average highest depth in winter (January 2016) and summer (July 2016) were recorded as 20ft (6.096m) and 35ft (10.668m) respectively. Both sampling depth and sampling seasons had the distinct effect on variation in macrophyte community composition. Overall, the dominant macrophytic populations in the lake were Nymphaea alba, Hydrilla verticillata, Utricularia flexuosa, Vallisneria spiralis, Najas indica, Monochoria hastaefolia, Trapa bispinosa, Ipomea fistulosa, Hygrorhiza aristata, Polygonum hydropiper, Eichhornia crassipes and Euryale ferox. There was a distinct correlation in the variation of major sediment physicochemical parameters with change in macrophyte community compositions. Quantitative estimation revealed an almost even accumulation of nitrate and nitrite in the sediment samples dominated by the plant species Eichhornia crassipes, Nymphaea alba, Hydrilla verticillata, Vallisneria spiralis, Euryale ferox and Monochoria hastaefolia, which might have signified a stable nitrification and denitrification process in the sites dominated by the selected aquatic plants. This was further examined by a systematic analysis of microbial populations through culture dependent and independent approach. Culture-dependent bacterial community study revealed the higher population of nitrifiers and denitrifiers in the sediment samples dominated by the six macrophyte species. However, culture-independent study with bacterial 16S rDNA V3-V4 metagenome sequencing revealed the overall similar type of bacterial phylum in all the sediment samples collected during the study. Thus, there might be the possibility of uneven distribution of nitrifying and denitrifying molecular markers among the sediment samples collected during the investigation. The diversity and abundance of the nitrifying and denitrifying molecular markers in the sediment samples are under investigation. Thus, the role of different aquatic plant functional types in microorganism mediated nitrogen cycle coupling could be screened out further from the present initial investigation.

Keywords: denitrification, macrophyte, metagenome, microorganism, nitrification

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Authors: Dace Grauda, Inta Belogrudova, Alexei Katashev, Linda Lancere, Isaak Rashal

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The goal of study was the elaboration of easy applicable flow cytometry method for detection of influence of abiotic stress factors on plants, which could be useful for detection of environmental stresses in urban areas. The lime tree Tillia vulgaris H. is a popular tree species used for urban landscaping in Europe and is one of the main species of street greenery in Riga, Latvia. Tree decline and low vitality has observed in the central part of Riga. For this reason lime trees were select as a model object for the investigation. During the period of end of June and beginning of July 12 samples from different urban environment locations as well as plant material from a greenhouse were collected. BD FACSJazz® cell sorter (BD Biosciences, USA) with flow cytometer function was used to test viability of plant cells. The method was based on changes of relative fluorescence intensity of cells in blue laser (488 nm) after influence of stress factors. SpheroTM rainbow calibration particles (3.0–3.4 μm, BD Biosciences, USA) in phosphate buffered saline (PBS) were used for calibration of flow cytometer. BD PharmingenTM PBS (BD Biosciences, USA) was used for flow cytometry assays. The mean fluorescence intensity information from the purified cell suspension samples was recorded. Preliminary, multiple gate sizes and shapes were tested to find one with the lowest CV. It was found that low CV can be obtained if only the densest part of plant cells forward scatter/side scatter profile is analysed because in this case plant cells are most similar in size and shape. The young pollen cells in one nucleus stage were found as the best for detection of influence of abiotic stress. For experiments only fresh plant material was used– the buds of Tillia vulgaris with diameter 2 mm. For the cell suspension (in vitro culture) establishment modified protocol of microspore culture was applied. The cells were suspended in the MS (Murashige and Skoog) medium. For imitation of dust of urban area SiO2 nanoparticles with concentration 0.001 g/ml were dissolved in distilled water. Into 10 ml of cell suspension 1 ml of SiO2 nanoparticles suspension was added, then cells were incubated in speed shaking regime for 1 and 3 hours. As a stress factor the irradiation of cells for 20 min by UV was used (Hamamatsu light source L9566-02A, L10852 lamp, A10014-50-0110), maximum relative intensity (100%) at 365 nm and at ~310 nm (75%). Before UV irradiation the suspension of cells were placed onto a thin layer on a filter paper disk (diameter 45 mm) in a Petri dish with solid MS media. Cells without treatment were used as a control. Experiments were performed at room temperature (23-25 °C). Using flow cytometer BS FACS Software cells plot was created to determine the densest part, which was later gated using oval-shaped gate. Gate included from 95 to 99% of all cells. To determine relative fluorescence of cells logarithmic fluorescence scale in arbitrary fluorescence units were used. 3x103 gated cells were analysed from the each sample. The significant differences were found among relative fluorescence of cells from different trees after treatment with SiO2 nanoparticles and UV irradiation in comparison with the control.

Keywords: flow cytometry, fluorescence, SiO2 nanoparticles, UV irradiation

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Authors: Denise De Fátima Fernandes Barbosa, Tyane Mayara Ferreira Oliveira, Diego Jorge Maia Lima, Paula Renata Amorim Lessa, Ana Karina Bezerra Pinheiro, Cintia Gondim Pereira Calou, Glauberto Da Silva Quirino, Hellen Lívia Oliveira Catunda, Tatiana Gomes Guedes, Nicolau Da Costa

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The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of Digital Cervicography (DC) in the diagnosis of precancerous lesions related to Human Papillomavirus (HPV). Cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, of evaluative type, held in a health unit linked to the Pro Dean of Extension of the Federal University of Ceará, in the period of July to August 2015 with a sample of 33 women. Data collecting was conducted through interviews with enforcement tool. Franco (2005) standardized the technique used for DC. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was performed to identify high-risk HPV genotypes. DC were evaluated and classified by 3 judges. The results of DC and PCR were classified as positive, negative or inconclusive. The data of the collecting instruments were compiled and analyzed by the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) with descriptive statistics and cross-references. Sociodemographic, sexual and reproductive variables were analyzed through absolute frequencies (N) and their respective percentage (%). Kappa coefficient (κ) was applied to determine the existence of agreement between the DC of reports among evaluators with PCR and also among the judges about the DC results. The Pearson's chi-square test was used for analysis of sociodemographic, sexual and reproductive variables with the PCR reports. It was considered statistically significant (p<0.05). Ethical aspects of research involving human beings were respected, according to 466/2012 Resolution. Regarding the socio-demographic profile, the most prevalent ages and equally were those belonging to the groups 21-30 and 41-50 years old (24.2%). The brown color was reported in excess (84.8%) and 96.9% out of them had completed primary and secondary school or studying. 51.5% were married, 72.7% Catholic, 54.5% employed and 48.5% with income between one and two minimum wages. As for the sexual and reproductive characteristics, prevailed heterosexual (93.9%) who did not use condoms during sexual intercourse (72.7%). 51.5% had a previous history of Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI), and HPV the most prevalent STI (76.5%). 57.6% did not use contraception, 78.8% underwent examination Cancer Prevention Uterus (PCCU) with shorter time interval or equal to one year, 72.7% had no cases of Cervical Cancer in the family, 63.6% were multiparous and 97% were not vaccinated against HPV. DC identified good level of agreement between raters (κ=0.542), had a specificity of 77.8% and sensitivity of 25% when compared their results with PCR. Only the variable race showed a statistically significant association with CRP (p=0.042). DC had 100% acceptance amongst women in the sample, revealing the possibility of other experiments in using this method so that it proves as a viable technique. The DC positivity criteria were developed by nurses and these professionals also perform PCCU in Brazil, which means that DC can be an important complementary diagnostic method for the appreciation of these professional’s quality of examinations.

Keywords: gynecological examination, human papillomavirus, nursing, papillomavirus infections, uterine lasmsneop

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Authors: Saeed Abbas, Rahilla Tabassum, Haider Abbas, Babar Khan, Shahid Hussain, Muhammad Zafar Khan, Fazal Karim, Yawar Abbas, Rizwan Karim

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Human–carnivore conflict is considered to be a major conservation and rural livelihood concern because many carnivore species have been heavily victimized due to elevated conflict levels with communities. Like other snow leopard range countries, this situation prevails in Pakistan, where WWF is currently working under Asia High Mountain Project (AHMP) in Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan. To mitigate such conflicts requires a firm understanding of grazing and predation pattern including human-carnivore interaction. For this purpose we conducted a survey in Hoper valley (one of the AHMP project sites in Pakistan), during August, 2013 through a questionnaire based survey and unstructured interviews covering 647 households, permanently residing in the project area out of the total 900 households. The valley, spread over 409 km2 between 36°7'46" N and 74°49'2"E, at 2900m asl in Karakoram ranges is considered to be one of an important habitat of snow leopard and associated prey species such as Himalayan ibex. The valley is home of 8100 Brusho people (ancient tribe of Northern Pakistan) dependent on agro-pastoral livelihoods including farming and livestock rearing. The total number of livestock reported were (N=15,481) out of which 8346 (53.91%) were sheep, 3546 (22.91%) goats, 2193 (14.16%) cows, 903 (5.83%) yaks, 508 (3.28%) bulls, 28 (0.18%) donkeys, 27 (0.17%) zo/zomo (cross breed of yak and cow), and 4 (0.03%) horses. 83 percent respondent (n=542 households) confirmed loss of their livestock during the last one year July, 2012 to June, 2013 which account for 2246 (14.51%) animals. The major reason of livestock loss include predation by large carnivores such as snow leopards and wolf (1710, 76.14%) followed by diseases (536, 23.86%). Of the total predation cases snow leopard is suspected to kill 1478 animals (86.43%). Among livestock sheep were found to be the major prey of snow leopard (810, 55%) followed by goats (484, 32.7%) cows (151, 10.21%), yaks (15, 1.015%), zo/zomo (7, 0.5%) and donkey (1, 0.07%). The reason for the mass depredation of sheep and goats is that they tend to browse on twigs of bushes and graze on soft grass near cliffs. They are also considered to be very active as compared to other species in moving quickly and covering more grazing area. This makes them more vulnerable to snow leopard attack. The majority (1283, 75%) of livestock killed by predators occurred during the warm season (May-September) in alpine and sub-alpine pastures and remaining (427, 25%) occurred in the winter season near settlements in valley. It was evident from the recent study that Snow leopard kills outside the pen were (1351, 79.76%) as compared to inside pen (359, 20.24%). Assessing the economic loss of livestock predation we found that the total loss of livestock predation in the study area is equal to PKR 11,230,000 (USD 105,797), which is about PRK 17, 357 (USD 163.51) per household per year. Economic loss incurred by the locals due to predation is quite significant where the average cash income per household per year is PKR 85,000 (USD 800.75).

Keywords: carnivores, conflict, predation, livelihood, conservation, rural, snow leopard, livestock

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alakeel, Abdulrahman Alomair, Mohammed Fouda

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Introduction: Methotrexate (MTX) is an antimetabolite used to treat multiple conditions, including neoplastic diseases, severe psoriasis, and rheumatoid arthritis. Skin cancer is the out-of-control growth of abnormal cells in the epidermis, the outermost skin layer, caused by unrepaired DNA damage that triggers mutations. These mutations lead the skin cells to multiply rapidly and form malignant tumors. The aim of this review is to evaluate the risk of skin cancer associated with the use of methotrexate and to suggest regulatory recommendations if required. Methodology: Signal Detection team at Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA) performed a safety review using National Pharmacovigilance Center (NPC) database as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) VigiBase, alongside with literature screening to retrieve related information for assessing the causality between skin cancer and methotrexate. The search conducted in July 2020. Results: Four published articles support the association seen while searching in literature, a recent randomized control trial published in 2020 revealed a statistically significant increase in skin cancer among MTX users. Another study mentioned methotrexate increases the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer when used in combination with immunosuppressant and biologic agents. In addition, the incidence of melanoma for methotrexate users was 3-fold more than the general population in a cohort study of rheumatoid arthritis patients. The last article estimated the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in a cohort study shows a statistically significant risk increase for CMM was observed in MTX exposed patients. The WHO database (VigiBase) searched for individual case safety reports (ICSRs) reported for “Skin Cancer” and 'Methotrexate' use, which yielded 121 ICSRs. The initial review revealed that 106 cases are insufficiently documented for proper medical assessment. However, the remaining fifteen cases have extensively evaluated by applying the WHO criteria of causality assessment. As a result, 30 percent of the cases showed that MTX could possibly cause skin cancer; five cases provide unlikely association and five un-assessable cases due to lack of information. The Saudi NPC database searched to retrieve any reported cases for the combined terms methotrexate/skin cancer; however, no local cases reported up to date. The data mining of the observed and the expected reporting rate for drug/adverse drug reaction pair is estimated using information component (IC), a tool developed by the WHO Uppsala Monitoring Centre to measure the reporting ratio. Positive IC reflects higher statistical association, while negative values translated as a less statistical association, considering the null value equal to zero. Results showed that a combination of 'Methotrexate' and 'Skin cancer' observed more than expected when compared to other medications in the WHO database (IC value is 1.2). Conclusion: The weighted cumulative pieces of evidence identified from global cases, data mining, and published literature are sufficient to support a causal association between the risk of skin cancer and methotrexate. Therefore, health care professionals should be aware of this possible risk and may consider monitoring any signs or symptoms of skin cancer in patients treated with methotrexate.

Keywords: methotrexate, skin cancer, signal detection, pharmacovigilance

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Authors: Nitika Sharma, Yogesh Jain

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Introduction: An efficient Information System helps in improving the service delivery as well provides the foundation for policy and regulation of other building blocks of Health System. Health care organizations require an integrated working of its various sub-systems. An efficient EMR software boosts the teamwork amongst the various sub-systems thereby resulting in improved service delivery. Although there has been a huge impetus to EMR under the Digital India initiative, it has still not been mandated in India. It is generally implemented in huge funded public or private healthcare organizations only. Objective: The study was conducted to understand the factors that lead to the successful adoption of an affordable EMR in the low level healthcare organization. It intended to understand the design of the EMR and address the solutions to the challenges faced in adoption of the EMR. Methodology: The study was conducted in a non-profit registered Healthcare organization that has been providing healthcare facilities to more than 2500 villages including certain areas that are difficult to access. The data was collected with help of field notes, in-depth interviews and participant observation. A total of 16 participants using the EMR from different departments were enrolled via purposive sampling technique. The participants included in the study were working in the organization before the implementation of the EMR system. The study was conducted in one month period from 25 June-20 July 2018. The Ethical approval was taken from the institute along with prior approval of the participants. Data analysis: A word document of more than 4000 words was obtained after transcribing and translating the answers of respondents. It was further analyzed by focused coding, a line by line review of the transcripts, underlining words, phrases or sentences that might suggest themes to do thematic narrative analysis. Results: Based on the answers the results were thematically grouped under four headings: 1. governance of organization, 2. architecture and design of the software, 3. features of the software, 4. challenges faced in adoption and the solutions to address them. It was inferred that the successful implementation was attributed to the easy and comprehensive design of the system which has facilitated not only easy data storage and retrieval but contributes in constructing a decision support system for the staff. Portability has lead to increased acceptance by physicians. The proper division of labor, increased efficiency of staff, incorporation of auto-correction features and facilitation of task shifting has lead to increased acceptance amongst the users of various departments. Geographical inhibitions, low computer literacy and high patient load were the major challenges faced during its implementation. Despite of dual efforts made both by the architects and administrators to combat these challenges, there are still certain ongoing challenges faced by organization. Conclusion: Whenever any new technology is adopted there are certain innovators, early adopters, late adopters and laggards. The same pattern was followed in adoption of this software. He challenges were overcome with joint efforts of organization administrators and users as well. Thereby this case study provides a framework of implementing similar systems in public sector of countries that are struggling for digitizing the healthcare in presence of crunch of human and financial resources.

Keywords: EMR, healthcare technology, e-health, EHR

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Authors: Edward Shizha, Edward Makwarimba

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This literature review explores current research on the educational strengths and barriers of newcomer and refugee youth in Canada. Canada’s shift in immigration policy in the past three decades, from Europe to Asian and African countries as source continents of recent immigrants to Canada, has tremendously increased the ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious diversity of the population, including that of students in its education system. Over 18% of the country’s population was born in another country, of which 70% are visible minorities. There has been an increase in admitted immigrants and refugees, with a total of 226,203 between July 2020 and June 2021. Newcomer parents and their children in all major destination countries, including Canada, face tremendous challenges, including racism and discrimination, lack of English language skills, poverty, income inequality, unemployment, and underemployment. They face additional challenges, including discrimination against those who cannot speak the official languages, English or French. The severity of the challenges depends on several intersectional factors, including immigrant status (asylum seeker, refugee, or immigrant), age, gender, level of education and others. Through the lens of intersectionality as an explanatory perspective, this literature review examines the educational attainment and outcomes of newcomer and refugee youth in Canada in order to understand their educational needs, educational barriers and strengths. Newcomer youths’ experiences are shaped by numerous intersectional and interconnected sociocultural, sociopolitical, and socioeconomic factors—including gender, migration status, racialized status, ethnicity, socioeconomic class, sexual minority status, age, race—that produce and perpetuate their disadvantage. According to research, immigrants and refugees from visible minority ethnic backgrounds experience exclusions more than newcomers from other backgrounds and groups from the mainstream population. For many immigrant parents, migration provides financial and educational opportunities for their children. Yet, when attending school, newcomer and refugee youth face unique challenges related to racism and discrimination, negative attitudes and stereotypes from teachers and other school authorities, language learning and proficiency, differing levels of acculturation, and different cultural views of the role of parents in relation to teachers and school, and unfamiliarity with the social or school context in Canada. Recognizing discrepancies in educational attainment of newcomer and refugee youth based on their race and immigrant status, the paper develops insights into existing research and data gaps related to educational strengths and challenges for visible minority newcomer youth in Canada. The paper concludes that the educational successes or failures of the newcomer and refugee youth and their settlement and integration into the school system in Canada may depend on where their families settle, the attitudes of the host community and the school officials (teachers, guidance counsellors and school administrators) after-school support programs and their own set of coping mechanisms. Conceivably a unique approach to after-school programming should provide learning supports and opportunities that consider newcomer and refugee youth’s needs, experiences, backgrounds and circumstances. This support is likely to translate into significant academic and psychological well-being of newcomer students.

Keywords: deficit discourse, discrimination, educational outcomes, newcomer and refugee youth, racism, strength-based approach, whiteness

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Authors: Wissam Saliba, Mandy Nicholson

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Secretory carcinoma (SC) is a rare type of salivary gland cancer. It was first realized as a distinct type of malignancy in 2010and wasinitially termed “mammary analogue secretory carcinoma” because of similarities with secretory breast cancer. The name was later changed to SC. Most SCs originate in parotid glands, and most harbour a rare gene mutation: ETV6-NTRK3. This mutation is rare in common cancers and common in rare cancers; it is present in most secretory carcinomas. Disease outcomes for SC are usually described as favourable as many cases of SC are lowgrade (LG), and cancer growth is slow. In early stages, localized therapy is usually indicated (surgery and/or radiation). Despitea favourable prognosis, a sub-set of casescan be much more aggressive.These cases tend to be of high-grade(HG).HG casesare associated with a poorer prognosis.Management of such cases can be challenging due to limited evidence for effective systemic therapy options. This case report describes the clinical management of a 46-year-oldmale patient with a unique case of SC. He was initially diagnosed with a low/intermediate grade carcinoma of the left parotid gland in 2009; he was treated with surgery and adjuvant radiation. Surgical pathology favoured primary salivary adenocarcinoma, and 2 lymph nodes were positive for malignancy. SC was not yet realized as a distinct type of cancerat the time of diagnosis, and the pathology reportvalidated this gap by stating that the specimen lacked features of the defined types of salivary carcinoma.Slow-growing pulmonary nodules were identified in 2017. In 2020, approximately 11 years after the initial diagnosis, the patient presented with malignant pleural effusion. Pathology from a pleural biopsy was consistent with metastatic poorly differentiated cancer of likely parotid origin, likely mammary analogue secretory carcinoma. The specimen was sent for Next Generation Sequencing (NGS); ETV6-NTRK3 gene fusion was confirmed, and systemic therapy was initiated.One cycle ofcarboplatin/paclitaxel was given in June 2020. He was switched to Larotrectinib (NTRK inhibitor (NTRKi)) later that month. Larotrectinib continued for approximately 9 months, with discontinuation in March 2021 due to disease progression. A second-generation NTRKi (Selitrectinib) was accessed and prescribedthrough a single patient study. Selitrectinib was well tolerated. The patient experienced a complete radiological response within~4 months. Disease progression occurred once again in October 2021. Progression was slow, and Selitrectinib continuedwhile the medical team performed a thorough search for additional treatment options. In January 2022, a liver lesion biopsy was performed, and NGS showed an NTRKG623R solvent-front resistance mutation. Various treatment pathways were considered. The patient pursuedanother investigational NTRKi through a clinical trial, and Selitrectinib was discontinued in July 2022. Excellent performance status was maintained throughout the entire course of treatment.It can be concluded that NTRK inhibitors provided satisfactory treatment efficacy and tolerance for this patient with high-grade transformation and NTRK gene fusion cancer. In the future, more clinical research is needed on systemic treatment options for high-grade transformations in NTRK gene fusion SCs.

Keywords: secretory carcinoma, high-grade transformations, NTRK gene fusion, NTRK inhibitor

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Authors: Siddhant Yadav, Rylea Ranum, Hannah Alberts, Abdul Kalaiger, Brent Bauer, Ryan Hurt, Ann Vincent, Loren Toussaint, Sanjeev Nanda

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Background and significance: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic pain disorder also characterized by chronic fatigue, morning stiffness, sleep, and cognitive symptoms, psychological disturbances (anxiety, depression), and is comorbid with multiple medical and psychiatric conditions. It has an incidence of 2-4% in the general population and is reported more commonly in women. Oxidative stress and inflammation are thought to contribute to pain in patients with FM, and the adoption of an antioxidant/anti-inflammatory diet has been suggested as a modality to alleviate symptoms. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the efficacy of specialized diets (ketogenic, gluten free, Mediterranean, and low carbohydrate) in improving FM symptoms. Methodology: A comprehensive search of the following databases from inception to July 15th, 2021, was conducted: Ovid MEDLINE and Epub ahead of print, in-process and other non-indexed citations and daily, Ovid Embase, Ovid EBM reviews, Cochrane central register of controlled trials, EBSCO host CINAHL with full text, Elsevier Scopus, website and citation index, web of science emerging sources citation and clinicaltrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials, non-randomized experimental studies, cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, case series, and case reports in adults with fibromyalgia. The risk of bias was assessed with the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality designed, specific recommended criteria (AHRQ). Results: Thirteen studies were eligible for inclusion. This included a total of 761 participants. Twelve out of the 13 studies reported improvement in widespread body pain, joint stiffness, sleeping pattern, mood, and gastrointestinal symptoms, and one study reported no changes in symptomatology in patients with FM on specialized diets. None of the studies showed the worsening of symptoms associated with a specific diet. Most of the patient population was female, with the mean age at which fibromyalgia was diagnosed being 48.12 years. Improvement in symptoms was reported by the patient's adhering to a gluten-free diet, raw vegan diet, tryptophan- and magnesium-enriched Mediterranean diet, aspartame- and msg- elimination diet, and specifically a Khorasan wheat diet. Risk of bias assessment noted that 6 studies had a low risk of bias (5 clinical trials and 1 case series), four studies had a moderate risk of bias, and 3 had a high risk of bias. In many of the studies, the allocation of treatment (diets) was not adequately concealed, and the researchers did not rule out any potential impact from a concurrent intervention or an unintended exposure that might have biased the results. On the other hand, there was a low risk of attrition bias in all the trials; all were conducted with an intention-to-treat, and the inclusion/exclusion criteria, exposures/interventions, and primary outcomes were valid, reliable, and implemented consistently across all study participants. Concluding statement: Patients with fibromyalgia who followed specialized diets experienced a variable degree of improvement in their widespread body pain. Improvement was also seen in stiffness, fatigue, moods, sleeping patterns, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Additionally, the majority of the patients also reported improvement in overall quality of life.

Keywords: fibromyalgia, specialized diet, vegan, gluten free, Mediterranean, systematic review

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Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

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The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

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Authors: Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Nafisa Lira Huq, Afroza Khanom, Rafiqul Islam, Abdullah Nurus Salam Khan, Farhana Karim, Nabila Zaka, Shams El Arifeen, Sk. Masum Billah

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After having astounding achievements in reducing maternal mortality and achieving the target for Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, the Government of Bangladesh has set new target to reduce Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 70 per 100,000 live births aligning with targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Aversion of deaths from maternal complication by ensuring quality health care could be an important path to accelerate the rate of reduction of MMR. This formative research was aimed at exploring the provision of quality maternal health services at different level of health facilities. The study was conducted in 1 district hospital (DH) and 4 Upazila health complexes (UHC) of Kurigram district of Bangladesh, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative research methods. We conducted 14 key informant interviews with facility managers and 20 in-depth interviews with health care providers and support staff. Besides, we observed 387 normal deliveries from which we found 17 cases of post partum haemorrhage (PPH) and 2 cases of eclampsia during the data collection period extended from July-September 2016. The quantitative data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and the qualitative component underwent thematic analysis with the broad themes of facility readiness for maternal complication management, and management of complications. Inadequacy in human resources has been identified as the most important bottleneck to provide quality care to manage maternal complications. The DH had a particular paucity of human resources in medical officer cadre where about 61% posts were unfilled. On the other hand, in the UHCs the positions mostly empty were obstetricians (75%, paediatricians (75%), staff nurses (65%), and anaesthetists (100%). The workload on the existing staff is increased because of the persistence of vacant posts. Unavailability of anesthetists and consultants does not permit the health care providers (HCP) of lower cadres to perform emergency operative procedures and forces them to refer the patients although referral system is not well organized in rural Bangladesh. Insufficient bed capacity, inadequate training, shortage of emergency medicines etc. are other hindrance factors for facility readiness. Among the 387 observed delivery case, 17 (4.4%) were identified as PPH cases, and only 2 cases were found as eclampsia/pre-eclampsia. The majority of the patients were treated with uterine message (16 out of 17, 94.1%) and injectable Oxytocin (14 out of 17, 82.4%). The providers of DH mentioned that they can manage the PPH because of having provision for diagnostic and blood transfusion services, although not as 24/7 services. Regarding management of eclampsia/pre-eclampsia, HCPs provided Diazepam, MgSO4, and other anti-hypertensives. The UHCs did not have MgSO4 at stock even, and one facility manager admitted that they treat eclampsia with Diazepam only. The nurses of the UHCs were found to be afraid to handle eclampsia cases. The upcoming interventions must ensure refresher training of service providers, continuous availability of essential medicine and equipment needed for complication management, availability of skilled health workforce, availability of functioning blood transfusion unit and pairing of consultants and anaesthetists to reach the newly set targets altogether.

Keywords: Bangladesh, health facilities, maternal complications, quality of care

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Authors: Todd H. Buxton, Yong G. Lai

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Temperature management in regulated rivers can involve significant expenditures of water to meet the cold-water requirements of species in summer. For this purpose, flows released from Lewiston Dam on the Trinity River in Northern California are 12.7 cms with temperatures around 11oC in July through September to provide adult spring Chinook cold water to hold in deep pools and mature until spawning in fall. The releases are more than double the flow and 10oC colder temperatures than the natural conditions before the dam was built. The high, cold releases provide springers the habitat they require but may suppress the stream food base and limit future populations of salmon by reducing the juvenile fish size and survival to adults via the positive relationship between the two. Field and modeling research was undertaken to explore whether lowering summer releases from Lewiston Dam may promote thermal stratification in river pools so that both the cold-water needs of adult salmon and warmer water requirements of other organisms in the stream biome may be met. For this investigation, a three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed and validated with field measurements in two deep pools on the Trinity River. Modeling and field observations were then used to identify the flows and temperatures that may form and maintain thermal stratification under different meteorologic conditions. Under low flows, a pool was found to be well mixed and thermally homogenous until temperatures began to stratify shortly after sunrise. Stratification then strengthened through the day until shading from trees and mountains cooled the inlet flow and decayed the thermal gradient, which collapsed shortly before sunset and returned the pool to a well-mixed state. This diurnal process of stratification formation and destruction was closely predicted by the 3D CFD model. Both the model and field observations indicate that thermal stratification maintained the coldest temperatures of the day at ≥2m depth in a pool and provided water that was around 8oC warmer in the upper 2m of the pool. Results further indicate that the stratified pool under low flows provided almost the same daily average temperatures as when flows were an order of magnitude higher and stratification was prevented, indicating significant water savings may be realized in regulated streams while also providing a diversity in water temperatures the ecosystem requires. With confidence in the 3D CFD model, the model is now being applied to a dozen pools in the Trinity River to understand how pool bathymetry influences thermal stratification under variable flows and diurnal temperature variations. This knowledge will be used to expand the results to 52 pools in a 64 km reach below Lewiston Dam that meet the depth criteria (≥2 m) for spring Chinook holding. From this, rating curves will be developed to relate discharge to the volume of pool habitat that provides springers the temperature (<15.6oC daily average), velocity (0.15 to 0.4 m/s) and depths that accommodate the escapement target for spring Chinook (6,000 adults) under maximum fish densities measured in other streams (3.1 m3/fish) during the holding time of year (May through August). Flow releases that meet these goals will be evaluated for water savings relative to the current flow regime and their influence on indicator species, including the Foothill Yellow-Legged Frog, and aspects of the stream biome that support salmon populations, including macroinvertebrate production and juvenile Chinook growth rates.

Keywords: 3D CFD modeling, flow regulation, thermal stratification, chinook salmon, foothill yellow-legged frogs, water managment

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Authors: Stephanie Ann Houghton

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SDG-driven intercultural citizenship education through performing arts and history research, combined with dance-fitness development inspired by performing arts, can provide a third space in which performing arts, local history, and contemporary society drive educational and social development, supporting the performing arts in student-generated ways, reflecting their sense, priorities, and goals. Within a string of rugged volcanic peninsulas along the north-western coastline of the Ariake Sea, Kyushu, southern Japan, are found a range of traditional performing arts endangered in Japan’s ageing society, including Menburyu mask dance. From 2017, Menburyu culture and history were explored with Menburyu veterans and students within Houghton’s FURYU Educational Program (FEP) at Saga University. Through collaboration with professional fitness instructor Kazuki Miyata, basic Menburyu movements and concepts were blended into aerobics routines to generate Menburyu-Inspired Dance-Fitness (MIDF). Drawing on history, legends, and myths, three important storylines for understanding Menburyu, captured in students’ bilingual (English/Japanese) exhibition panels, emerged: harvest, demons and gods, and the Battle of Tadenawate 1530. Houghton and Miyata performed the first MIDF routine at the 22nd Traditional Performing Arts Festival at Yutoku Inari Shrine, Kashima, in September 2019. FEP exhibitions, dance-fitness events, and MIDF performance have been reported in the media locally and nationally. In an action research case study, a classroom research project was conducted with four female Japanese students over fifteen three-hour online lessons (April-July 2020). Part 1 of each lesson focused on Menburyu history. This included a guest lecture by Kensuke Ryuzoji. The three Menburyu storylines served as keys for exploring Menburyu history from international standpoints.Part 2 focused on the development of MIDF basic steps and an online MIDF event with outside guests. Through post-lesson reflective diaries and reports/videos documenting their experience, students engaged in heritage management, intercultural dialogue, health/fitness, technology and art generation activities within the FEP, centring on UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including health and wellness (SDG3), and quality education (SDG4), taking a glocal approach. In this presentation, qualitative analysis of student-generated reflective diary and reports will be presented to reveal educational processes, learning outcomes,and apparent areas of (potential) social impact of this classroom research project. Data will be presented in two main parts: (1) The mutually beneficial relationship between local traditional performing arts research and local history researchwill be addressed. One has the power both inform and illuminate the other given their deep connections. This can drive the development of students’ intercultural history competence related to and through the performing arts. (2) The development of dance-fitness inspired by traditional performing arts provides a third space in which performing arts, local history and contemporary society can be connected through SDG-driven education inside the classroom in ways that can also drive social innovation outside the classroom, potentially supporting the performing arts itself in student-generated ways, reflecting their own sense, priorities and social goals. Links will be drawn with intercultural citizenship, strengths and weaknesses of this teaching approach will be highlighted, and avenues for future research in this exciting new area will be suggested.

Keywords: cultural traditions, dance-fitness performance and participation, intercultural communication approach, mask dance origins

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