Search results for: Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR

Authors: Zhang Shuqi, Liu Dan

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For the problems in intelligent network anomaly traffic detection models, such as low detection accuracy caused by the lack of training samples, poor effect with small sample attack detection, a classification model enhancement method, F-ACGAN(Flow Auxiliary Classifier Generative Adversarial Network) which introduces generative adversarial network and adversarial training, is proposed to solve these problems. Generating adversarial data with category labels could enhance the training effect and improve classification accuracy and model robustness. FACGAN consists of three steps: feature preprocess, which includes data type conversion, dimensionality reduction and normalization, etc.; A generative adversarial network model with feature learning ability is designed, and the sample generation effect of the model is improved through adversarial iterations between generator and discriminator. The adversarial disturbance factor of the gradient direction of the classification model is added to improve the diversity and antagonism of generated data and to promote the model to learn from adversarial classification features. The experiment of constructing a classification model with the UNSW-NB15 dataset shows that with the enhancement of FACGAN on the basic model, the classification accuracy has improved by 8.09%, and the score of F1 has improved by 6.94%.

Keywords: data imbalance, GAN, ACGAN, anomaly detection, adversarial training, data augmentation

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: social enterprise, business model, business model design, business model environment

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Due to its porous nature, karst terrains – geomorphologically developed from dissolved formations, is vulnerable to water shortage and deteriorated water quality. Therefore, a solid comprehension on sub-surface flow of karst landscape is essential to assess the long-term availability of groundwater resources. In this paper, a single-continuum model using a finite difference model, MODLFOW, was constructed to represent an unconfined carbonate aquifer in a tropical karst island of Rote in Indonesia. The model, spatially discretized in 20 x 20 m grid cells, was calibrated and validated using available groundwater level and atmospheric variables. In the calibration and validation steps, Parameter Estimation (PEST) and geostatistical pilot point methods were employed to estimate hydraulic conductivity and specific yield values. The results show that the model is able to represent the sub-surface flow indicated by good model performances both in calibration and validation steps. The final model can be used as a robust representation of the system for future study on climate and land use scenarios.

Keywords: carbonate aquifer, karst, sub-surface flow, groundwater model

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Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu

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Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.

Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing

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Authors: Irene Carter, Roy Hanes, Judy MacDonald

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Considering that disability is universal and people with disabilities are part of all societies; that there is a connection between the disabled individual and the societal; and that it is society and social arrangements that disable people with impairments, contemporary disability discourse emphasizes the social model of disability to counter medical and rehabilitative models of disability. However, the social model does not go far enough in addressing the issues of oppression and inclusion. The authors indicate that the social model does not specifically or adequately denote the oppression of persons with disabilities, which is a central component of progressive social work practice with people with disabilities. The social model of disability does not go far enough in deconstructing disability and offering social workers, as well as people with disabilities a way of moving forward in terms of practice anchored in individual, familial and societal change. The social model of disability is expanded by incorporating principles of anti-oppression social work practice. Although the contextual analysis of the social model of disability is an important component there remains a need for social workers to provide service to individuals and their families, which will be illustrated through anti-oppressive practice (AOP). By applying an anti-oppressive model of practice to the above definitions, the authors not only deconstruct disability paradigms but illustrate how AOP offers a framework for social workers to engage with people with disabilities at the individual, familial and community levels of practice, promoting an emancipatory focus in working with people with disabilities. An anti- social- oppression social work model of disability connects the day-to-day hardships of people with disabilities to the direct consequence of oppression in the form of ableism. AOP theory finds many of its basic concepts within social-oppression theory and the social model of disability. It is often the case that practitioners, including social workers and psychologists, define people with disabilities’ as having or being a problem with the focus placed upon adjustment and coping. A case example will be used to illustrate how an AOP paradigm offers social work a more comprehensive and critical analysis and practice model for social work practice with and for people with disabilities than the traditional medical model, rehabilitative and social model approaches.

Keywords: anti-oppressive practice, disability, people with disabilities, social model of disability

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish

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Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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Authors: Hui Wei, Zheng Dong

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Object recognition has long been a challenging task in computer vision. Yet the human brain, with the ability to rapidly and accurately recognize visual stimuli, manages this task effortlessly. In the past decades, advances in neuroscience have revealed some neural mechanisms underlying visual processing. In this paper, we present a novel model inspired by the visual pathway in primate brains. This multi-layer neural network model imitates the hierarchical convergent processing mechanism in the visual pathway. We show that local image features generated by this model exhibit robust discrimination and even better generalization ability compared with some existing image descriptors. We also demonstrate the application of this model in an object recognition task on image data sets. The result provides strong support for the potential of this model.

Keywords: biological model, feature extraction, multi-layer neural network, object recognition

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Authors: Mohamed A. Deyab, Omnia A. A. El-Shamy

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The purpose of this study is to reveal on the systematic evaluation of hydrogen production by aluminum hydrolysis in alkaline solutions containing different surfactants using hydrogen evolution measurements and supplemented by scan electron microscope (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX). It has been demonstrated that when alkaline concentration and solution temperature rise, the rate of H2 generation and, consequently, aluminum hydrolysis also rises. The addition of nonionic and cationic surfactants solution retards the rate of H2 production. The work is a promising option for carbon-free hydrogen production from renewable resources.

Keywords: energy, hydrogen, hydrolysis, surfactants

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.

Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: Paul Essel, Eric T. Glover, Gustav Gbeddy, Yaw Adjei-Kyereme, Abdallah M. A. Dawood, Evans M. Ameho, Emmanuel A. Aberikae

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Radioactive materials mainly in the form of Sealed Radioactive Sources are being used in various sectors (medicine, agriculture, industry, research, and teaching) for the socio-economic development of Ghana. The use of these beneficial radioactive materials has resulted in an inventory of Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources (DSRS) in storage. Most of the DSRS are legacy/historic sources which cannot be returned to their manufacturer or country of origin. Though small in volume, DSRS can be intensively radioactive and create a significant safety and security liability. They need to be managed in a safe and secure manner in accordance with the fundamental safety objective. The Radioactive Waste Management Center (RWMC) of the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC) is currently storing a significant volume of DSRS. The initial activities of the DSRS range from 7.4E+5 Bq to 6.85E+14 Bq. If not managed properly, such DSRS can represent a potential hazard to human health and the environment. Storage is an important interim step, especially for DSRS containing very short-lived radionuclides, which can decay to exemption levels within a few years. Long-term storage, however, is considered an unsustainable option for DSRS with long half-lives hence the need for a disposal facility. The GAEC intends to use the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) Borehole Disposal System (BDS) to provide a safe, secure, and cost-effective disposal option to dispose of its DSRS in storage. The proposed site for implementation of the BDS is on the GAEC premises at Kwabenya. The site has been characterized to gain a general understanding in terms of its regional setting, its past evolution and likely future natural evolution over the assessment time frame. Due to the long half-lives of some of the radionuclides to be disposed of (Ra-226 with half-life of 1600 years), the engineered barriers of the system must be robust to contain these radionuclides for this long period before they decay to harmless levels. There is the need to assess the safety related functions of the engineered barriers of this disposal system.

Keywords: radionuclides, disposal, radioactive waste, engineered barrier

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Júlio Cesar Lopes de Oliveira, Carlos Henrique Gonçalves Treviso

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The shortage of the automotive market in relation to options for sources of high power car audio systems, led to development of this work. Thus, we developed a source with stabilized voltage with 4320 W effective power. Designed to the voltage of 14.4 V and a choice of two currents: 30 A load option in battery banks and 300 A at full load. This source can also be considered as a source of general use dedicated commercial with a simple control circuit in analog form based on discrete components. The assembly of power circuit uses a methodology for higher power than the initially stipulated.

Keywords: DC-DC power converters, converters, power conversion, pulse width modulation converters

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Authors: Mustafa Kamoona, Mohamed El-Sharkawy

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Although the latest Wireless Local Area Network technology Wi-Fi 802.11i standard addresses many of the security weaknesses of the antecedent Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) protocol, there are still scenarios where the network security are still vulnerable. The first security model that 802.11i offers is the Personal model which is very cheap and simple to install and maintain, yet it uses a Pre Shared Key (PSK) and thus has a low to medium security level. The second model that 802.11i provide is the Enterprise model which is highly secured but much more expensive and difficult to install/maintain and requires the installation and maintenance of an authentication server that will handle the authentication and key management for the wireless network. A central issue with the personal model is that the PSK needs to be shared with all the devices that are connected to the specific Wi-Fi network. This pre-shared key, unless changed regularly, can be cracked using offline dictionary attacks within a matter of hours. The key is burdensome to change in all the connected devices manually unless there is some kind of algorithm that coordinate this PSK update. The key idea of this paper is to propose a new algorithm that proactively and effectively coordinates the pre-shared key generation, management, and distribution in the cheap WPA/WPA2 personal security model using only a DD-WRT router.

Keywords: Wi-Fi, WPS, TLS, DD-WRT

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Elena Puica

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This paper aims to investigate the impact of Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the environment by applying a Machine Learning model while pointing out the efficiency of the technology used. The Machine Learning model was used to derive the efficiency and optimization of technology used in SCM and the environmental impact of SCM processes. The model applied is a predictive classification model and was trained firstly to determine which stage of the SCM has more outputs and secondly to demonstrate the efficiency of using advanced technology in SCM instead of recuring to traditional SCM. The outputs are the emissions generated in the environment, the consumption from different steps in the life cycle, the resulting pollutants/wastes emitted, and all the releases to air, land, and water. This manuscript presents an innovative approach to applying advanced technology in SCM and simultaneously studies the efficiency of technology and the SCM's impact on the environment. Identifying the conceptual relationships between SCM practices and their impact on the environment is a new contribution to the research. The authors can take a forward step in developing recent studies in SCM and its effects on the environment by applying technology.

Keywords: machine-learning model in SCM, SCM processes, SCM and the environmental impact, technology in SCM

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

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Authors: Oluwaseun Adeleke, Samuel O. Ikani, Fidelis Edet, Anthony Nwala, Mopelola Raji, Simeon Christian Chukwu

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Background The Delivering Innovations in Selfcare (DISC) project promotes universal access to quality selfcare services beginning with subcutaneous depot medroxy progesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) contraceptive self-injection (SI) option. Self-inject (SI) offers women a highly effective and convenient option that saves them frequent trips to providers. Its increased use has the potential to improve the efficiency of an overstretched healthcare system by reducing provider workloads. State Social and Behavioral Change Communications (SBCC) Officers lead project demand creation and service delivery innovations that have resulted in significant increases in SI uptake among women who opt for injectables. Strategies Service Delivery Innovations The implementation of the "Moment of Truth (MoT)" innovation helped providers overcome biases and address client fear and reluctance to self-inject. Bi-annual program audits and supportive mentoring visits helped providers retain their competence and motivation. Proper documentation, tracking, and replenishment of commodities were ensured through effective engagement with State Logistics Units. The project supported existing state monitoring and evaluation structures to effectively record and report subcutaneous depot medroxy progesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) service utilization. Demand creation Innovations SBCC Officers provide oversight, routinely evaluate performance, trains, and provides feedback for the demand creation activities implemented by community mobilizers (CMs). The scope and intensity of training given to CMs affect the outcome of their work. The project operates a demand creation model that uses a schedule to inform the conduct of interpersonal and group events. Health education sessions are specifically designed to counter misinformation, address questions and concerns, and educate target audience in an informed choice context. The project mapped facilities and their catchment areas and enlisted the support of identified influencers and gatekeepers to enlist their buy-in prior to entry. Each mobilization event began with pre-mobilization sensitization activities, particularly targeting male groups. Context-specific interventions were informed by the religious, traditional, and cultural peculiarities of target communities. Mobilizers also support clients to engage with and navigate online digital Family Planning (FP) online portals such as DiscoverYourPower website, Facebook page, digital companion (chat bot), interactive voice response (IVR), radio and television (TV) messaging. This improves compliance and provides linkages to nearby facilities. Results The project recorded 136,950 self-injection (SI) visits and a self-injection (SI) proportion rate that increased from 13 percent before the implementation of interventions in 2021 to 62 percent currently. The project cost-effectively demonstrated catalytic impact by leveraging state and partner resources, institutional platforms, and geographic scope to scale up interventions. The project also cost effectively demonstrated catalytic impact by leveraging on the state and partner resources, institutional platforms, and geographic scope to sustainably scale-up these strategies. Conclusion Using evidence-informed iterations of service delivery and demand creation models have been useful to significantly drive self-injection (SI) uptake. It will be useful to consider this implementation model during program design. Contemplation should also be given to systematic and strategic execution of strategies to optimize impact.

Keywords: family planning, contraception, DMPA-SC, self-care, self-injection, innovation, service delivery, demand creation.

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

Abstract:

The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Nirjhar Dhang, S. Vinay Kumar

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Concrete is a non-homogeneous mix of coarse aggregates, sand, cement, air-voids and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) around aggregates. Adoption of these complex structures and material properties in numerical simulation would lead us to better understanding and design of concrete. In this work, the mesoscale model of concrete has been prepared from X-ray computerized tomography (CT) image. These images are converted into computer model and numerically simulated using commercially available finite element software. The mesoscale models are simulated under the influence of compressive displacement. The effect of shape and distribution of aggregates, continuous and discrete ITZ thickness, voids, and variation of mortar strength has been investigated. The CT scan of concrete cube consists of series of two dimensional slices. Total 49 slices are obtained from a cube of 150mm and the interval of slices comes approximately 3mm. In CT scan images, the same cube can be CT scanned in a non-destructive manner and later the compression test can be carried out in a universal testing machine (UTM) for finding its strength. The image processing and extraction of mortar and aggregates from CT scan slices are performed by programming in Python. The digital colour image consists of red, green and blue (RGB) pixels. The conversion of RGB image to black and white image (BW) is carried out, and identification of mesoscale constituents is made by putting value between 0-255. The pixel matrix is created for modeling of mortar, aggregates, and ITZ. Pixels are normalized to 0-9 scale considering the relative strength. Here, zero is assigned to voids, 4-6 for mortar and 7-9 for aggregates. The value between 1-3 identifies boundary between aggregates and mortar. In the next step, triangular and quadrilateral elements for plane stress and plane strain models are generated depending on option given. Properties of materials, boundary conditions, and analysis scheme are specified in this module. The responses like displacement, stresses, and damages are evaluated by ABAQUS importing the input file. This simulation evaluates compressive strengths of 49 slices of the cube. The model is meshed with more than sixty thousand elements. The effect of shape and distribution of aggregates, inclusion of voids and variation of thickness of ITZ layer with relation to load carrying capacity, stress-strain response and strain localizations of concrete have been studied. The plane strain condition carried more load than plane stress condition due to confinement. The CT scan technique can be used to get slices from concrete cores taken from the actual structure, and the digital image processing can be used for finding the shape and contents of aggregates in concrete. This may be further compared with test results of concrete cores and can be used as an important tool for strength evaluation of concrete.

Keywords: concrete, image processing, plane strain, interfacial transition zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 233