Search results for: distribution protection equipment
3605 Foreign Tourists’ Attitude toward Service Marketing Mix and Intention to Revisit in Boutique Hotel
Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased
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This survey research aimed to study the influence of attitude in services, product, and marketing mix affected intention to revisit in boutique hotel of foreign travelers in Bangkok, Thailand. The total 400 sets of closed-ended questionnaires were utilized for conducting data from foreign tourists who come to boutique hotel and can communicate in English. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The research found that tourists’ attitude towards the service of check in and check out process, food and beverage, guest room and other facilities affected in opportunity of revisiting, recommending to others and possibility of revisiting in the future at 0.05 statistically significant levels. Tourists’ attitude towards service and marketing mix in term of people, physical evidence, price, process and channel of distribution could forecast intention to revisit in term of recommending to others and intention to revisit in the future at 0.05 statistically significant levels.Keywords: boutique hotel, foreign tourists, intention to revisit, service marketing mix
Procedia PDF Downloads 2483604 Determination of Soil Loss by Erosion in Different Land Covers Categories and Slope Classes in Bovilla Watershed, Tirana, Albania
Authors: Valmir Baloshi, Fran Gjoka, Nehat Çollaku, Elvin Toromani
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As a sediment production mechanism, soil erosion is the main environmental threat to the Bovilla watershed, including the decline of water quality of the Bovilla reservoir that provides drinking water to Tirana city (the capital of Albania). Therefore, an experiment with 25 erosion plots for soil erosion monitoring has been set up since June 2017. The aim was to determine the soil loss on plot and watershed scale in Bovilla watershed (Tirana region) for implementation of soil and water protection measures or payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs. The results of erosion monitoring for the period June 2017 - May 2018 showed that the highest values of surface runoff were noted in bare land of 38829.91 liters on slope of 74% and the lowest values in forest land of 12840.6 liters on slope of 64% while the highest values of soil loss were found in bare land of 595.15 t/ha on slope of 62% and lowest values in forest land of 18.99 t/ha on slope of 64%. These values are much higher than the average rate of soil loss in the European Union (2.46 ton/ha/year). In the same sloping class, the soil loss was reduced from orchard or bare land to the forest land, and in the same category of land use, the soil loss increased with increasing land slope. It is necessary to conduct chemical analyses of sediments to determine the amount of chemical elements leached out of the soil and end up in the reservoir of Bovilla. It is concluded that PES programs should be implemented for rehabilitation of sub-watersheds Ranxe, Vilez and Zall-Bastar of the Bovilla watershed with valuable conservation practices.Keywords: ANOVA, Bovilla, land cover, slope, soil loss, watershed management
Procedia PDF Downloads 1653603 Analysis of Sediment Distribution around Karang Sela Coral Reef Using Multibeam Backscatter
Authors: Razak Zakariya, Fazliana Mustajap, Lenny Sharinee Sakai
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A sediment map is quite important in the marine environment. The sediment itself contains thousands of information that can be used for other research. This study was conducted by using a multibeam echo sounder Reson T20 on 15 August 2020 at the Karang Sela (coral reef area) at Pulau Bidong. The study aims to identify the sediment type around the coral reef by using bathymetry and backscatter data. The sediment in the study area was collected as ground truthing data to verify the classification of the seabed. A dry sieving method was used to analyze the sediment sample by using a sieve shaker. PDS 2000 software was used for data acquisition, and Qimera QPS version 2.4.5 was used for processing the bathymetry data. Meanwhile, FMGT QPS version 7.10 processes the backscatter data. Then, backscatter data were analyzed by using the maximum likelihood classification tool in ArcGIS version 10.8 software. The result identified three types of sediments around the coral which were very coarse sand, coarse sand, and medium sand.Keywords: sediment type, MBES echo sounder, backscatter, ArcGIS
Procedia PDF Downloads 883602 Fault Detection of Pipeline in Water Distribution Network System
Authors: Shin Je Lee, Go Bong Choi, Jeong Cheol Seo, Jong Min Lee, Gibaek Lee
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Water pipe network is installed underground and once equipped; it is difficult to recognize the state of pipes when the leak or burst happens. Accordingly, post management is often delayed after the fault occurs. Therefore, the systematic fault management system of water pipe network is required to prevent the accident and minimize the loss. In this work, we develop online fault detection system of water pipe network using data of pipes such as flow rate or pressure. The transient model describing water flow in pipelines is presented and simulated using Matlab. The fault situations such as the leak or burst can be also simulated and flow rate or pressure data when the fault happens are collected. Faults are detected using statistical methods of fast Fourier transform and discrete wavelet transform, and they are compared to find which method shows the better fault detection performance.Keywords: fault detection, water pipeline model, fast Fourier transform, discrete wavelet transform
Procedia PDF Downloads 5133601 The Analysis of Personalized Low-Dose Computed Tomography Protocol Based on Cumulative Effective Radiation Dose and Cumulative Organ Dose for Patients with Breast Cancer with Regular Chest Computed Tomography Follow up
Authors: Okhee Woo
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Purpose: The aim of this study is to evaluate 2-year cumulative effective radiation dose and cumulative organ dose on regular follow-up computed tomography (CT) scans in patients with breast cancer and to establish personalized low-dose CT protocol. Methods and Materials: A retrospective study was performed on the patients with breast cancer who were diagnosed and managed consistently on the basis of routine breast cancer follow-up protocol between 2012-01 and 2016-06. Based on ICRP (International Commission on Radiological Protection) 103, the cumulative effective radiation doses of each patient for 2-year follow-up were analyzed using the commercial radiation management software (Radimetrics, Bayer healthcare). The personalized effective doses on each organ were analyzed in detail by the software-providing Monte Carlo simulation. Results: A total of 3822 CT scans on 490 patients was evaluated (age: 52.32±10.69). The mean scan number for each patient was 7.8±4.54. Each patient was exposed 95.54±63.24 mSv of radiation for 2 years. The cumulative CT radiation dose was significantly higher in patients with lymph node metastasis (p = 0.00). The HER-2 positive patients were more exposed to radiation compared to estrogen or progesterone receptor positive patient (p = 0.00). There was no difference in the cumulative effective radiation dose with different age groups. Conclusion: To acknowledge how much radiation exposed to a patient is a starting point of management of radiation exposure for patients with long-term CT follow-up. The precise and personalized protocol, as well as iterative reconstruction, may reduce hazard from unnecessary radiation exposure.Keywords: computed tomography, breast cancer, effective radiation dose, cumulative organ dose
Procedia PDF Downloads 2003600 Study of Flow-Induced Noise Control Effects on Flat Plate through Biomimetic Mucus Injection
Authors: Chen Niu, Xuesong Zhang, Dejiang Shang, Yongwei Liu
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Fishes can secrete high molecular weight fluid on their body skin to enable their rapid movement in the water. In this work, we employ a hybrid method that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Finite Element Method (FEM) to investigate the effects of different mucus viscosities and injection velocities on fluctuation pressure in the boundary layer and flow-induced structural vibration noise of a flat plate model. To accurately capture the transient flow distribution on the plate surface, we use Large Eddy Simulation (LES) while the mucus inlet is positioned at a sufficient distance from the model to ensure effective coverage. Mucus injection is modeled using the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method for multiphase flow calculations. The results demonstrate that mucus control of pulsating pressure effectively reduces flow-induced structural vibration noise, providing an approach for controlling flow-induced noise in underwater vehicles.Keywords: mucus, flow control, noise control, flow-induced noise
Procedia PDF Downloads 1493599 Improvement of the 3D Finite Element Analysis of High Voltage Power Transformer Defects in Time Domain
Authors: M. Rashid Hussain, Shady S. Refaat
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The high voltage power transformer is the most essential part of the electrical power utilities. Reliability on the transformers is the utmost concern, and any failure of the transformers can lead to catastrophic losses in electric power utility. The causes of transformer failure include insulation failure by partial discharge, core and tank failure, cooling unit failure, current transformer failure, etc. For the study of power transformer defects, finite element analysis (FEA) can provide valuable information on the severity of defects. FEA provides a more accurate representation of complex geometries because they consider thermal, electrical, and environmental influences on the insulation models to obtain basic characteristics of the insulation system during normal and partial discharge conditions. The purpose of this paper is the time domain analysis of defects 3D model of high voltage power transformer using FEA to study the electric field distribution at different points on the defects.Keywords: power transformer, finite element analysis, dielectric response, partial discharge, insulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1593598 An Authentication Protocol for Quantum Enabled Mobile Devices
Authors: Natarajan Venkatachalam, Subrahmanya V. R. K. Rao, Vijay Karthikeyan Dhandapani, Swaminathan Saravanavel
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The quantum communication technology is an evolving design which connects multiple quantum enabled devices to internet for secret communication or sensitive information exchange. In future, the number of these compact quantum enabled devices will increase immensely making them an integral part of present communication systems. Therefore, safety and security of such devices is also a major concern for us. To ensure the customer sensitive information will not be eavesdropped or deciphered, we need a strong authentications and encryption mechanism. In this paper, we propose a mutual authentication scheme between these smart quantum devices and server based on the secure exchange of information through quantum channel which gives better solutions for symmetric key exchange issues. An important part of this work is to propose a secure mutual authentication protocol over the quantum channel. We show that our approach offers robust authentication protocol and further our solution is lightweight, scalable, cost-effective with optimized computational processing overheads.Keywords: quantum cryptography, quantum key distribution, wireless quantum communication, authentication protocol, quantum enabled device, trusted third party
Procedia PDF Downloads 1763597 The Influence of Caregivers’ Preparedness and Role Burden on Quality of Life among Stroke Patients
Authors: Yeaji Seok, Myung Kyung Lee
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Background: Even if patients survive after a stroke, stroke patients may experience disability in mobility, sensation, cognition, and speech and language. Stroke patients require rehabilitation for functional recovery and daily life for a considerable time. During rehabilitation, the role of caregivers is important. However, the stroke patients’ quality of life may deteriorate due to family caregivers’ non-preparedness and increased role burden. Purpose: To investigate the prediction of caregivers' preparedness and role burden on stroke patients’ quality of life. Methods: The target population was stroke patients who were hospitalized for rehabilitation and their family care providers. A total of 153 patient-family caregiver dyads were recruited from June to August 2021. Data were collected from self-reported questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, chi-squared test, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson’s correlation coefficients, and multiple regression with SPSS statistics 28 programs. Results: Family caregivers’ preparedness affected stroke patients’ mobility (β = .20, p < 0.05) and character (β = -.084, p < 0.05) and production activities (β = -.197, p < 0.05) in quality of life. The role burden of family caregivers affected language skills (β = .310, p<0.05), visual functions (β=-.357, p < 0.05), thinking skills (β = 0.443, p = 0.05), mood conditions (β = 0.565, p < 0.001), family roles (β = -0.361, p < 0.001), and social roles (β = -0.304, p < 0.001), while the caregivers’ burden of performing self-protection negatively affected patients’ social roles (β = .180, p=.048). In addition, caregivers’ role burden of personal life sacrifice affected patients’ mobility (β = .311, p < 0.05), self-care (β =.232, p < 0.05) and energy (β = .239, p < 0.05). Conclusion: This study indicated that family caregivers' preparedness and role burden affected stroke patients’ quality of life. The results of this study suggested that intervention to improve family caregivers’ preparedness and to reduce role burden should be required for quality of life in stroke patients.Keywords: quality of life, preparedness, role burden, caregivers, stroke
Procedia PDF Downloads 2123596 Design of Uniform Spray Nozzle and Simulation of Carrier Gas Flow Rate Distribution for FTO Thin Film Fabrication Process
Authors: HyeSuk Ri, HyonChol Kim, NamChol Yu
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The FTO thin films were deposited on 15 cm × 15 cm glass substrates by ultrasonic spray pyrolysis, and the influence of process parameters on the film properties was investigated. This paper is the first report on the design of a uniform nozzle and simulating the carrier gas flow characteristics in an ultrasonic spray pyrolysis process. The uniformity of FTO films was evaluated by surface resistivity. The structure, surface morphology and optical properties of FTO films were investigated using scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and UV-Vis spectroscopy. The process conditions for film preparation were SnCl₄ concentration of 1.34 mol, NH₄F concentration of 0.08 mol, temperature of 500 °C, deposition time of 15 min, carrier gas flow rate of 3 m/s, distance between nozzle and substrate of 0.7 cm. The transmittance of the fabricated FTO films was 80%, the surface resistance showed a uniform behavior at 14-15Ω/cm² and the X-ray analysis showed a high orientation of SnO₂ crystals in the 200-plane. SEM analysis showed that the crystallite size was constant.Keywords: nozzle design, FTO film, simulation, ultrasonic spray pyrolysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 83595 Performance Degradation for the GLR Test-Statistics for Spatial Signal Detection
Authors: Olesya Bolkhovskaya, Alexander Maltsev
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Antenna arrays are widely used in modern radio systems in sonar and communications. The solving of the detection problems of a useful signal on the background of noise is based on the GLRT method. There is a large number of problem which depends on the known a priori information. In this work, in contrast to the majority of already solved problems, it is used only difference spatial properties of the signal and noise for detection. We are analyzing the influence of the degree of non-coherence of signal and noise unhomogeneity on the performance characteristics of different GLRT statistics. The description of the signal and noise is carried out by means of the spatial covariance matrices C in the cases of different number of known information. The partially coherent signal is simulated as a plane wave with a random angle of incidence of the wave concerning a normal. Background noise is simulated as random process with uniform distribution function in each element. The results of investigation of degradation of performance characteristics for different cases are represented in this work.Keywords: GLRT, Neumann-Pearson’s criterion, Test-statistics, degradation, spatial processing, multielement antenna array
Procedia PDF Downloads 3863594 Flood Modeling in Urban Area Using a Well-Balanced Discontinuous Galerkin Scheme on Unstructured Triangular Grids
Authors: Rabih Ghostine, Craig Kapfer, Viswanathan Kannan, Ibrahim Hoteit
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Urban flooding resulting from a sudden release of water due to dam-break or excessive rainfall is a serious threatening environment hazard, which causes loss of human life and large economic losses. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision, and rescue plans. This work reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam-break. A two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water model is used with a refined unstructured grid of triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2D shallow water equations are solved using a second-order well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Theoretical test case and three flood events are described to demonstrate the potential benefits of the scheme: (i) wetting and drying in a parabolic basin (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce River valley in Italy; (iii) wave propagation on the Reyran river valley in consequence of the Malpasset dam-break in 1959 (France); and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacarcel (Spain). The capability of the scheme is also verified against alternative models. Computational results compare well with recorded data and show that the scheme is at least as efficient as comparable second-order finite volume schemes, with notable efficiency speedup due to parallelization.Keywords: dam-break, discontinuous Galerkin scheme, flood modeling, shallow water equations
Procedia PDF Downloads 1753593 Research on the Development and Space Optimization of Rental-Type Public Housing in Hangzhou
Authors: Xuran Zhang, Huiru Chen
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In recent years, China has made great efforts to cultivate and develop the housing rental market, especially the rental-type public housing, which has been paid attention to by all sectors of the society. This paper takes Hangzhou rental-type public housing as the research object, and divides it into three development stages according to the different supply modes of rental-type public housing. Through data collection and field research, the paper summarizes the spatial characteristics of rental-type public housing from the five perspectives of spatial planning, spatial layout, spatial integration, spatial organization and spatial configuration. On this basis, the paper proposes the optimization of the spatial layout. The study concludes that the spatial layout of rental-type public housing should be coordinated with the development of urban planning. When planning and constructing, it is necessary to select more mixed construction modes, to be properly centralized, and to improve the surrounding transportation service facilities. It is hoped that the recommendations in this paper will provide a reference for the further development of rental-type public housing in Hangzhou.Keywords: Hangzhou, rental-type public housing, spatial distribution, spatial optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 3253592 Intrusion Detection in Cloud Computing Using Machine Learning
Authors: Faiza Babur Khan, Sohail Asghar
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With an emergence of distributed environment, cloud computing is proving to be the most stimulating computing paradigm shift in computer technology, resulting in spectacular expansion in IT industry. Many companies have augmented their technical infrastructure by adopting cloud resource sharing architecture. Cloud computing has opened doors to unlimited opportunities from application to platform availability, expandable storage and provision of computing environment. However, from a security viewpoint, an added risk level is introduced from clouds, weakening the protection mechanisms, and hardening the availability of privacy, data security and on demand service. Issues of trust, confidentiality, and integrity are elevated due to multitenant resource sharing architecture of cloud. Trust or reliability of cloud refers to its capability of providing the needed services precisely and unfailingly. Confidentiality is the ability of the architecture to ensure authorization of the relevant party to access its private data. It also guarantees integrity to protect the data from being fabricated by an unauthorized user. So in order to assure provision of secured cloud, a roadmap or model is obligatory to analyze a security problem, design mitigation strategies, and evaluate solutions. The aim of the paper is twofold; first to enlighten the factors which make cloud security critical along with alleviation strategies and secondly to propose an intrusion detection model that identifies the attackers in a preventive way using machine learning Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99.8%. This model uses less number of features. A comparison with other classifiers is also presented.Keywords: cloud security, threats, machine learning, random forest, classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 3223591 Flood Devastation Assessment Through Mapping in Nigeria-2022 using Geospatial Techniques
Authors: Hafiz Muhammad Tayyab Bhatti, Munazza Usmani
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One of nature's most destructive occurrences, floods do immense damage to communities and economic losses. Nigeria country, specifically southern Nigeria, is known for being prone to flooding. Even though periodic flooding occurs in Nigeria frequently, the floods of 2022 were the worst since those in 2012. Flood vulnerability analysis and mapping are still lacking in this region due to the very limited historical hydrological measurements and surveys on the effects of floods, which makes it difficult to develop and put into practice efficient flood protection measures. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are useful approaches to detecting, determining, and estimating the flood extent and its impacts. In this study, NOAA VIIR has been used to extract the flood extent using the flood water fraction data and afterward fused with GIS data for some zonal statistical analysis. The estimated possible flooding areas are validated using satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The goal is to map and studied flood extent, flood hazards, and their effects on the population, schools, and health facilities for each state of Nigeria. The resulting flood hazard maps show areas with high-risk levels clearly and serve as an important reference for planning and implementing future flood mitigation and control strategies. Overall, the study demonstrated the viability of using the chosen GIS and remote sensing approaches to detect possible risk regions to secure local populations and enhance disaster response capabilities during natural disasters.Keywords: flood hazards, remote sensing, damage assessment, GIS, geospatial analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1403590 Tool Wear of Metal Matrix Composite 10wt% AlN Reinforcement Using TiB2 Cutting Tool
Authors: M. S. Said, J. A. Ghani, C. H. Che Hassan, N. N. Wan, M. A. Selamat, R. Othman
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Metal Matrix Composite (MMCs) have attracted considerable attention as a result of their ability to provide high strength, high modulus, high toughness, high impact properties, improved wear resistance and good corrosion resistance than unreinforced alloy. Aluminium Silicon (Al/Si) alloys Metal Matrix composite (MMC) has been widely used in various industrial sectors such as transportation, domestic equipment, aerospace, military, construction, etc. Aluminium silicon alloy is MMC reinforced with aluminium nitride (AlN) particle and becomes a new generation material for automotive and aerospace applications. The AlN material is one of the advanced materials with light weight, high strength, high hardness and stiffness qualities which have good future prospects. However, the high degree of ceramic particles reinforcement and the irregular nature of the particles along the matrix material that contribute to its low density, is the main problem that leads to the machining difficulties. This paper examines tool wear when milling AlSi/AlN Metal Matrix Composite using a TiB2 coated carbide cutting tool. The volume of the AlN reinforced particle was 10%. The milling process was carried out under dry cutting condition. The TiB2 coated carbide insert parameters used were the cutting speed of (230 m/min, feed rate 0.4mm tooth, DOC 0.5mm, 300 m/min, feed rate 0.8mm/tooth, DOC 0.5mm and 370 m/min, feed rate 0.8, DOC 0.4m). The Sometech SV-35 video microscope system was used for tool wear measurements respectively. The results have revealed that the tool life increases with the cutting speed (370 m/min, feed rate 0.8 mm/tooth and depth of cut 0.4mm) constituted the optimum condition for longer tool life which is 123.2 min. While at medium cutting speed, it is found that the cutting speed of 300m/min, feed rate 0.8 mm/tooth and depth of cut 0.5mm only 119.86 min for tool wear mean while the low cutting speed give 119.66 min. The high cutting speed gives the best parameter for cutting AlSi/AlN MMCs materials. The result will help manufacture to machining the AlSi/AlN MMCs materials.Keywords: AlSi/AlN Metal Matrix Composite milling process, tool wear, TiB2 coated carbide tool, manufacturing engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 4293589 The Psychometric Properties of an Instrument to Estimate Performance in Ball Tasks Objectively
Authors: Kougioumtzis Konstantin, Rylander Pär, Karlsteen Magnus
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Ball skills as a subset of fundamental motor skills are predictors for performance in sports. Currently, most tools evaluate ball skills utilizing subjective ratings. The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a newly developed instrument to objectively measure ball handling skills (BHS-test) utilizing digital instrument. Participants were a convenience sample of 213 adolescents (age M = 17.1 years, SD =3.6; 55% females, 45% males) recruited from upper secondary schools and invited to a sports hall for the assessment. The 8-item instrument incorporated both accuracy-based ball skill tests and repetitive-performance tests with a ball. Testers counted performance manually in the four tests (one throwing and three juggling tasks). Furthermore, assessment was technologically enhanced in the other four tests utilizing a ball machine, a Kinect camera and balls with motion sensors (one balancing and three rolling tasks). 3D printing technology was used to construct equipment, while all results were administered digitally with smart phones/tablets, computers and a specially constructed application to send data to a server. The instrument was deemed reliable (α = .77) and principal component analysis was used in a random subset (53 of the participants). Furthermore, latent variable modeling was employed to confirm the structure with the remaining subset (160 of the participants). The analysis showed good factorial-related validity with one factor explaining 57.90 % of the total variance. Four loadings were larger than .80, two more exceeded .76 and the other two were .65 and .49. The one factor solution was confirmed by a first order model with one general factor and an excellent fit between model and data (χ² = 16.12, DF = 20; RMSEA = .00, CI90 .00–.05; CFI = 1.00; SRMR = .02). The loadings on the general factor ranged between .65 and .83. Our findings indicate good reliability and construct validity for the BHS-test. To develop the instrument further, more studies are needed with various age-groups, e.g. children. We suggest using the BHS-test for diagnostic or assessment purpose for talent development and sports participation interventions that focus on ball games.Keywords: ball-handling skills, ball-handling ability, technologically-enhanced measurements, assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 963588 Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Coefficients of Variation in Gamma Distributions
Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong
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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study
Procedia PDF Downloads 4283587 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets
Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme
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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov
Procedia PDF Downloads 2193586 Preventive Effects of Motorcycle Helmets on Clinical Outcomes in Motorcycle Crashes
Authors: Seung Chul Lee, Jooyeong Kim, Ki Ok Ahn, Juok Park
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Background: Injuries caused by motorcycle crashes are one of the major public health burdens leading to high mortality, functional disability. The risk of death among motorcyclists is 30 times greater than that among car drivers, with head injuries the leading cause of death. The motorcycle helmet is crucial protective equipment for motorcyclists. Aims: This study aimed to measure the protective effect of motorcycle helmet use on intracranial injury and mortality and to compare the preventive effect in drivers and passengers. Methods: This is a cross-sessional study based on the Emergency Department (ED)–based Injury In-depth Surveillance (EDIIS) database from 23 EDs in Korea. All of the trauma patients injured in motorcycle crashes between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016 were eligible, excluding cases with unknown helmet use and outcomes. The primary and secondary outcomes were intracranial injury and in-hospital mortality. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of helmet use for study outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders. Using interaction models, we compared the protective effect of helmet use on outcomes across driving status (driver and passenger). Results: Among 17,791 eligible patients, 10,668 (60.0%) patients were wearing helmets at the time of the crash, 2,128 (12.0%) patients had intracranial injuries and 331 (1.9%) patients had in-hospital death. 16,381 (92.1%) patients were drivers and 1410 (7.9%) patients were passengers. 62.6% of drivers and 29.1% of passengers were wearing helmets at the time of the crash. Compared to un-helmeted group, the helmeted group was less likely to have an intracranial injury(8.0% vs. 17.9%, AOR: 0.43 (0.39-0.48)) and in-hospital mortality (1.0% vs. 3.2%, AOR: 0.29 (0.22-0.37)).In the interaction model, AORs (95% CIs) of helmet use for intracranial injury were 0.42 (0.38-0.47) in drivers and 0.61(0.41-0.90) in passengers, respectively. There was a significant preventive effect of helmet use on in-hospital mortality in drivers (AOR: 0.26(0.21–0.34)). Discussion and conclusions: Wearing helmets in motorcycle crashes reduced intracranial injuries and in-hospital mortality. The preventive effect of motorcycle helmet use on intracranial injury was stronger in drivers than in passengers. There was a significant preventive effect of helmet use on in-hospital mortality in driver but not in passengers. Public health efforts to increase motorcycle helmet use are needed to reduce health burden from injuries caused by motorcycle crashes.Keywords: intracranial injury, helmet, mortality, motorcycle crashes
Procedia PDF Downloads 1873585 Deformation and Strength of Heat-Shielding Materials in a Long-Term Storage of Aircraft
Authors: Lyudmila L. Gracheva
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Thermal shield is a multi-layer structure that consists of layers made of different materials. The use of composite materials (CM) reinforced with carbon fibers in rocket technologies (shells, bearings, wings, fairings, inter-step compartments, etc.) is due to a possibility of reducing the weight while increasing a structural strength. Structures made of a unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced plastic based on an epoxy resin are used as load-bearing skins for aircraft fairings. The results of an experimental study of the physical and mechanical properties of epoxy carbon fiber reinforced plastics depending on temperature for different storage times of products are presented. With an increasing temperature, the physical and mechanical properties of CM are determined by the thermal and deformation properties of the components and the geometry of their distribution. Samples for the study were cut from natural skins of the head fairings.Keywords: composite material, thermal deformation, carbon fiber, heat shield, epoxy resin, thermal expansion
Procedia PDF Downloads 593584 Conceptualizing IoT Based Framework for Enhancing Environmental Accounting By ERP Systems
Authors: Amin Ebrahimi Ghadi, Morteza Moalagh
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This research is carried out to find how a perfect combination of IoT architecture (Internet of Things) and ERP system can strengthen environmental accounting to incorporate both economic and environmental information. IoT (e.g., sensors, software, and other technologies) can be used in the company’s value chain from raw material extraction through materials processing, manufacturing products, distribution, use, repair, maintenance, and disposal or recycling products (Cradle to Grave model). The desired ERP software then will have the capability to track both midpoint and endpoint environmental impacts on a green supply chain system for the whole life cycle of a product. All these enable environmental accounting to calculate, and real-time analyze the operation environmental impacts, control costs, prepare for environmental legislation and enhance the decision-making process. In this study, we have developed a model on how to use IoT devices in life cycle assessment (LCA) to gather emissions, energy consumption, hazards, and wastes information to be processed in different modules of ERP systems in an integrated way for using in environmental accounting to achieve sustainability.Keywords: ERP, environmental accounting, green supply chain, IOT, life cycle assessment, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1743583 Performance Augmentation of a Combined Cycle Power Plant with Waste Heat Recovery and Solar Energy
Authors: Mohammed A. Elhaj, Jamal S. Yassin
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In the present time, energy crises are considered a severe problem across the world. For the protection of global environment and maintain ecological balance, energy saving is considered one of the most vital issues from the view point of fuel consumption. As the industrial sectors everywhere continue efforts to improve their energy efficiency, recovering waste heat losses provides an attractive opportunity for an emission free and less costly energy resource. In the other hand the using of solar energy has become more insistent particularly after the high gross of prices and running off the conventional energy sources. Therefore, it is essential that we should endeavor for waste heat recovery as well as solar energy by making significant and concrete efforts. For these reasons this investigation is carried out to study and analyze the performance of a power plant working by a combined cycle in which Heat Recovery System Generator (HRSG) gets its energy from the waste heat of a gas turbine unit. Evaluation of the performance of the plant is based on different thermal efficiencies of the main components in addition to the second law analysis considering the exergy destructions for the whole components. The contribution factors including the solar as well as the wasted energy are considered in the calculations. The final results have shown that there is significant exergy destruction in solar concentrator and the combustion chamber of the gas turbine unit. Other components such as compressor, gas turbine, steam turbine and heat exchangers having insignificant exergy destruction. Also, solar energy can contribute by about 27% of the input energy to the plant while the energy lost with exhaust gases can contribute by about 64% at maximum cases.Keywords: solar energy, environment, efficiency, waste heat, steam generator, performance, exergy destruction
Procedia PDF Downloads 2993582 Electron Density Analysis and Nonlinear Optical Properties of Zwitterionic Compound
Authors: A. Chouaih, N. Benhalima, N. Boukabcha, R. Rahmani, F. Hamzaoui
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Zwitterionic compounds have received the interest of chemists and physicists due to their applications as nonlinear optical materials. Recently, zwitterionic compounds exhibiting high nonlinear optical activity have been investigated. In this context, the molecular electron charge density distribution of the title compound is described accurately using the multipolar model of Hansen and Coppens. The net atomic charge and the molecular dipole moment have been determined in order to understand the nature of inter- and intramolecular charge transfer. The study reveals the nature of intermolecular interactions including charge transfer and hydrogen bonds in the title compound. In this crystal, the molecules form dimers via intermolecular hydrogen bonds. The dimers are further linked by C–H...O hydrogen bonds into chains along the c crystallographic axis. This study has also allowed us to determine various nonlinear optical properties such as molecular electrostatic potential, polarizability, and hyperpolarizability of the title compound.Keywords: organic compounds, polarizability, hyperpolarizability, dipole moment
Procedia PDF Downloads 4193581 Ab Initio Studies of Structural and Thermal Properties of Aluminum Alloys
Authors: M. Saadi, S. E. H. Abaidia, M. Y. Mokeddem.
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We present the results of a systematic and comparative study of the bulk, the structural properties, and phonon calculations of aluminum alloys using several exchange–correlations functional theory (DFT) with different plane-wave basis pseudo potential techniques. Density functional theory implemented by the Vienna Ab Initio Simulation Package (VASP) technique is applied to calculate the bulk and the structural properties of several structures. The calculations were performed for within several exchange–correlation functional and pseudo pententials available in this code (local density approximation (LDA), generalized gradient approximation (GGA), projector augmented wave (PAW)). The lattice dynamic code “PHON” developed by Dario Alfè was used to calculate some thermodynamics properties and phonon dispersion relation frequency distribution of Aluminium alloys using the VASP LDA PAW and GGA PAW results. The bulk and structural properties of the calculated structures were compared to different experimental and calculated works.Keywords: DFT, exchange-correlation functional, LDA, GGA, pseudopotential, PAW, VASP, PHON, phonon dispersion
Procedia PDF Downloads 4883580 The Scanning Vibrating Electrode Technique (SVET) as a Tool for Optimising a Printed Ni(OH)2 Electrode under Charge Conditions
Authors: C. F. Glover, J. Marinaccio, A. Barnes, I. Mabbett, G. Williams
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The aim of the current study is to optimise formulations, in terms of charging efficiency, of a printed Ni(OH)2 precursor coating of a battery anode. Through the assessment of the current densities during charging, the efficiency of a range of formulations are compared. The Scanning vibrating electrode technique (SVET) is used extensively in the field of corrosion to measure area-averaged current densities of freely-corroding metal surfaces when fully immersed in electrolyte. Here, a Ni(OH)2 electrode is immersed in potassium hydroxide (30% w/v solution) electrolyte and charged using a range of applied currents. Samples are prepared whereby multiple coatings are applied to one substrate, separated by a non-conducting barrier, and charged using a constant current. With a known applied external current, electrode efficiencies can be calculated based on the current density outputs measured using SVET. When fully charged, a green Ni(OH)2 is oxidised to a black NiOOH surface. Distinct regions displaying high current density, and hence a faster oxidising reaction rate, are located using the SVET. This is confirmed by a darkening of the region upon transition to NiOOH. SVET is a highly effective tool for assessing homogeneity of electrodes during charge/discharge. This could prove particularly useful for electrodes where there are no visible surface appearance changes. Furthermore, a scanning Kelvin probe technique, traditionally used to assess underfilm delamination of organic coatings for the protection of metallic surfaces, is employed to study the change in phase of oxides, pre and post charging.Keywords: battery, electrode, nickel hydroxide, SVET, printed
Procedia PDF Downloads 2383579 Temperature Distribution Inside Hybrid photovoltaic-Thermoelectric Generator Systems and their Dependency on Exposition Angles
Authors: Slawomir Wnuk
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Due to widespread implementation of the renewable energy development programs the, solar energy use increasing constantlyacross the world. Accordingly to REN21, in 2020, both on-grid and off-grid solar photovoltaic systems installed capacity reached 760 GWDCand increased by 139 GWDC compared to previous year capacity. However, the photovoltaic solar cells used for primary solar energy conversion into electrical energy has exhibited significant drawbacks. The fundamentaldownside is unstable andlow efficiencythe energy conversion being negatively affected by a rangeof factors. To neutralise or minimise the impact of those factors causing energy losses, researchers have come out withvariedideas. One ofpromising technological solutionsoffered by researchers is PV-MTEG multilayer hybrid system combiningboth photovoltaic cells and thermoelectric generators advantages. A series of experiments was performed on Glasgow Caledonian University laboratory to investigate such a system in operation. In the experiments, the solar simulator Sol3A series was employed as a stable solar irradiation source, and multichannel voltage and temperature data loggers were utilised for measurements. The two layer proposed hybrid systemsimulation model was built up and tested for its energy conversion capability under a variety of the exposure angles to the solar irradiation with a concurrent examination of the temperature distribution inside proposed PV-MTEG structure. The same series of laboratory tests were carried out for a range of various loads, with the temperature and voltage generated being measured and recordedfor each exposure angle and load combination. It was found that increase of the exposure angle of the PV-MTEG structure to an irradiation source causes the decrease of the temperature gradient ΔT between the system layers as well as reduces overall system heating. The temperature gradient’s reduction influences negatively the voltage generation process. The experiments showed that for the exposureangles in the range from 0° to 45°, the ‘generated voltage – exposure angle’ dependence is reflected closely by the linear characteristics. It was also found that the voltage generated by MTEG structures working with the optimal load determined and applied would drop by approximately 0.82% per each 1° degree of the exposure angle increase. This voltage drop occurs at the higher loads applied, getting more steep with increasing the load over the optimal value, however, the difference isn’t significant. Despite of linear character of the generated by MTEG voltage-angle dependence, the temperature reduction between the system structure layers andat tested points on its surface was not linear. In conclusion, the PV-MTEG exposure angle appears to be important parameter affecting efficiency of the energy generation by thermo-electrical generators incorporated inside those hybrid structures. The research revealedgreat potential of the proposed hybrid system. The experiments indicated interesting behaviour of the tested structures, and the results appear to provide valuable contribution into thedevelopment and technological design process for large energy conversion systems utilising similar structural solutions.Keywords: photovoltaic solar systems, hybrid systems, thermo-electrical generators, renewable energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 913578 Significant Stressed Zone of Highway Embankment
Authors: Sharifullah Ahmed, P. Eng
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The Axle Pressure and the Consolidation Pressure decrease with the height of the highway embankment and the depth of subsoil. This reduction of pressure depends on the height and width of the embankment. The depth is defined as the significantly stressed zone at which the pressure is reduced to 0.2 or 20%. The axle pressure is reduced to 7% for embankment height 1-3m and to 0.7% for embankment height 4-12m at the bottom level of Highway Embankment. This observation implies that, the portion of axle pressure transferred to subsoil underlying the embankment is not significant for ESAL factor 4.8. The 70% consolidation to have occurred after the construction of the surface layer of pavement. Considering this ratio of post construction settlement, 70% consolidation pressure (Δσ70) is used in this analysis. The magnitude of influence depth or Significant Stressed Zone (Ds) had been obtained for the range of crest width (at the top level of the embankment) is kept between 5m and 50m and for the range of embankment height from 1.0m to 12.0m considering 70% of consolidation pressure (Δσ70). Significantly stressed zones (Ds) for 70% embankment pressure are found as 2-6.2He for embankment top width 5-50m.Keywords: consolidation pressure, consolidation settlement, ESAL, highway embankment, HS 20-44, significant stressed zone, stress distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 933577 A Review: The Impact of Core Quality the Empirical Review of Critical Factors on the Causes of Delay in Road Constructions Projects in the GCC Countries
Authors: Sulaiman Al-Hinai, Setyawan Widyarto
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The aim of this study is to identify the critically dominating factors on the delays of road constructions in the GCC countries and their effects on project delivery in Arab countries. Towards the achieved of the objectives the study used the empirical literature from the all relevant online sources and database as many as possible. The findings of this study have summarized and short listed of the success factors in the two categories such as internal and external factors have caused to be influenced to delay of road constructions in the Arab regions. However, in the category of internal factors, there are 63 factors short listed from seven group of factors which has revealed to effects on the delay of road constructions especially, the consultant related factors, the contractor related factors, designed related factors, client related factors, labor related factors, material related issues, equipment related issues respectively. Moreover, for external related factors are also considered to summarized especially natural disaster (flood, hurricanes and cyclone etc.), conflict, war, global financial crisis, compensation delay to affected property owner, price fluctuated, unexpected ground conditions (soil and high-water level), changing of government regulations and laws, delays in obtaining permission from municipality, loss of time by traffic control and restrictions at job site, problem with inhabitant of community, delays in providing service from utilities (water and electricity’s) and accident during constructions accordingly. The present study also concluded the effects of above factors which has delay road constructions through increasing of cost and overrun it, taken overtime, creating of disputes, going for lawsuits, finally happening of abandon of projects. Thus, the present study has given the following recommendations to overcome of above problems by increasing of detailed site investigations, ensure careful monitoring and regular meetings, effective site management, collaborative working and effective coordination’s, proper and comprehensive planning and scheduling and ensure full and intensive commitment from all parties accordingly.Keywords: Arab GCC countries, critical success factors, road constructions delay, project management
Procedia PDF Downloads 1293576 Red-Tide Detection and Prediction Using MODIS Data in the Arabian Gulf of Qatar
Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen
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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination
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