Search results for: risk information weight (RIW)

Authors: Oladele V. Adeniyi, B. Longo-Mbenza, Daniel T. Goon

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Background: Lipids are often low or in the normal ranges and controversial in the atherogenesis among Black Africans. The effect of the severity of obesity on some traditional and novel cardiovascular disease risk factors is unclear before and after a diet and exercise maintenance programme among obese black South Africans with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors to discriminate obesity classes among patients with T2DM before and after a diet and exercise programme. Methods: This interventional cohort of Black South Africans with T2DM was followed by a very – low calorie diet and exercise programme in Mthatha, between August and November 2013. Gender, age, and the levels of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, monthly income, daily frequency of meals, blood random plasma glucose (RPG), serum creatinine, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL –C, HDL – C, Non-HDL, ratios of TC/HDL, TG/HDL, and LDL/HDL were recorded. Univariate analysis (ANOVA) and multivariate discriminant analysis were performed to separate obesity classes: normal weight (BMI = 18.5 – 24.9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI = 25 – 29.9 kg/m2), obesity Class 1 (BMI = 30 – 34.9 kg/m2), obesity Class 2 (BMI = 35 – 39.9 kg/m2), and obesity Class 3 (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2). Results: At the baseline (1st Month September), all 327 patients were overweight/obese: 19.6% overweight, 42.8% obese class 1, 22.3% obese class 2, and 15.3% obese class 3. In discriminant analysis, only systolic blood pressure (SBP with positive association) and LDL/HDL ratio (negative association) significantly separated increasing obesity classes. At the post – evaluation (3rd Month November), out of all 327 patients, 19.9%, 19.3%, 37.6%, 15%, and 8.3% had normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1, obesity class 2, and obesity class 3, respectively. There was a significant negative association between serum creatinine and increase in BMI. In discriminant analysis, only age (positive association), SBP (U – shaped relationship), monthly income (inverted U – shaped association), daily frequency of meals (positive association), and LDL/HDL ratio (positive association) classified significantly increasing obesity classes. Conclusion: There is an epidemic of diabesity (Obesity + T2DM) in this Black South Africans with some weight loss. Further studies are needed to understand positive or negative linear correlations and paradoxical curvilinear correlations between these markers and increase in BMI among black South African T2DM patients.

Keywords: atherogenic dyslipidaemia, dietary interventions, obesity, south africans

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Authors: Cajethan U. Ugwuoke, Hyginus O. Omeje, Emmanuel C. Osinem

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The study was carried out to determine the effects of Moringa oleifera leaf powder additive on the feed intake and average weight of pullets. A completely Randomized Design (CRD) was adopted for the study. On the procedure of the experiment, 240 chicks were randomly selected from 252 Isa Brown day-old chicks. The chicks were equally randomly allotted to 12 pens with 20 chicks each. The pens were randomly assigned to four different treatment groups with three replicates each. T1 was fed with control feed while T2, T3, and T4 were fed with 2.5%, 5% and 7.5% Moringa oleifera leaf powder fortified feed respectively. The chicks were fed with uniform feed up to week four. From week five, experimental feeds were given to the pullet up to 20 weeks of age. The birds were placed on the same treatment conditions except different experimental feeds given to different groups. Data on the feed intake were collected daily while the average weight of the pullets was collected weekly using weighing scale. Data collected were analyzed using mean, bar charts and Analysis of Variance. The layers fed with control feed consumed the highest amount of feed in most of the weeks under study. The average weights of all the treatment groups were equal from week 1 to week 4. Little variation in average weight started in week 5 with T2 topping the groups. However, there was no statistically significant difference (p>0.05) in the feed intake and average weight of layers fed with different inclusion rates of Moringa oleifera leaf powder in feeds.

Keywords: average weight, feed intake, Moringa oleifera, pullets

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Authors: Jieh-Jiuh Wang

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Disasters happen frequently due to the global climate changes today. The cultural heritage conservation should be considered from the perspectives of surrounding environments and large-scale disasters. Most current thoughts about the disaster prevention of cultural heritages in Taiwan are single-point thoughts emphasizing firefighting, decay prevention, and construction reinforcement and ignoring the whole concept of the environment. The traditional conservation cannot defend against more and more tremendous and frequent natural disasters caused by climate changes. More and more cultural heritages are confronting the high risk of disasters. This study adopts the perspective of risk identification and takes flood as the main disaster category. It analyzes the amount and categories of cultural heritages that might suffer from disasters with the geographic information system integrating the latest flooding potential data from National Fire Agency and Water Resources Agency and the basic data of cultural heritages. It examines the actual risk of cultural heritages confronting floods and serves as the accordance for future considerations of risk measures and preparation for reducing disasters. The result of the study finds the positive relationship between the disaster affected situation of national cultural heritages and the rainfall intensity. The order of impacted level by floods is historical buildings, historical sites indicated by municipalities and counties, and national historical sites and relics. However, traditional settlements and cultural landscapes are not impacted. It might be related to the taboo space in the traditional culture of site selection (concepts of disaster avoidance). As for the regional distribution on the other hand, cultural heritages in central and northern Taiwan suffer from more shocking floods, while the heritages in northern and eastern Taiwan suffer from more serious flooding depth.

Keywords: cultural heritage, flood, preventive conservation, risk management

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Authors: Mustapha Saidu, Bilyaminu Mohammed

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The study was conducted in Udubo Grazing Reserve between July 2019 and October 2019 to assess forage utilization for pasture-based livestock production in reserve. The grazing land was cross-divided into grids, where 15 coordinates were selected as the sample points. Grids of one-kilometer interval were made. The grids were systematically selected 1 grid after 7 grids. 1 × 1-meter quadrat was made at the coordinate of the selected grids for measurement, estimation, and sample collection. The results of the study indicated that Zornia glochidiatah has the highest percent of species composition (42%), while Mitracarpus hirtus has the lowest percent (0.1%). Urochloa mosambicensis has 48 percent of height removed and 27 percent used by weight, Zornia glochidiata 60 percent of height removed and 57 percent used by weight, Alysicapus veginalis has 55 percent of height removed, and 40 percent used by weight, and Cenchrus biflorus has 40 percent of height removed and 28 percent used by weight. The target is 50 percent utilization of forage by weight during a grazing period as well as at the end of the grazing season. The study found that Orochloa mosambicensis, Alysicarpus veginalis, and Cenchrus biflorus had lower percent by weight which is normal, while Zornia glochidiata had a higher percent by weight which is an indication of danger. The study recommends that the identification of key plant species in pasture and rangeland is critical to implementing a successful grazing management plan. There should be collective action and promotion of historically generated grazing knowledge through public and private advocacies.

Keywords: forage, grazing reserve, live stock, pasture, plant species

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Authors: Chi-Jung Chung, Chao-Hsiang Chang, Chiu-Shong Liu, Sheng-Wei Li, Mu-Chi Chung, Ting-Jie Wen, Hui-Ling Lee

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Cigarette smoke contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as acrylamide, 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. This study aimed to explore the associations between the urinary levels of cotinine and VOC metabolites and the risk of urothelial carcinoma (UC). A hospital-based case–control study involving two groups matched on the basis of age ( ± 3 years) and gender was designed. UC was clinically diagnosed through urological examinations and pathologically verified. Smoking-related information was collected through questionnaires and face-to-face interviews with all study participants. Urine samples were collected for the analysis of the urinary levels of VOC metabolites, cotinine, and 8-hydroxydeoxygua- nosine (8-OHdG), which was selected as a proxy of oxidative stress. Multiple logistic regressions were applied to estimate the risk of UC. The urinary cotinine and 8-OHdG levels of the UC group were higher than those of the control group. The urinary levels of VOC metabolites, including N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl)-L-cysteine (AAMA), N- acetyl-S-(2-carbamoyl-2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine, N-acetyl-S- (4- hydroxy-2-buten-1-yl)-Lcysteine-3, trans, trans-muconic acid (t,t- MA), and S-phenylmercapturic acid (SPMA) increased as the urinary levels of cotinine increased. Relevant dose-response relationships between the risk of UC risk and the urinary levels of AAMA , t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were found after adjusting for potential risk factors. The UC risk of participants with high urinary levels of cotinine, AAMA, t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were 3.5–6-fold higher than those of other participants. Increased urinary levels of VOC metabolites were associated with smoking-related UC risk. The development of UC should be explored in large-scale in vitro or in vivo studies with the repeated measurement of VOC metabolites.

Keywords: volatile organic compound, urothelial carcinoma, cotinine, 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine

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Authors: Magdalena B. Kaziuk, Waldemar Kosiba

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Background: In the XXI century we have to deal with the epidemic of obesity which is important risk factor for the cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Lipo proteins are directly involved in the atherosclerotic process. Non-high-density lipo protein (non-HDL) began following widespread recognition of its superiority over LDL as a measurement of vascular event risk. Non-HDL includes residual risk which persists in patients after achieved recommended level of LDL. Materials and Methods: The study covered 111 patients (52 females, 59 males, age 51,91±14 years), hospitalized on the intern department. Body composition was assessed using the bioimpendance method and anthropometric measurements. Physical activity data were collected during the interview. The nutritional status and the obesity type were determined with the Waist to Height Ratio and the Waist to Hip Ratio. A function of the kidney was evaluated by calculating the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using MDRD formula. Non-HDL was calculated as a difference between concentration of the Total and HDL cholesterol. Results: 10% of patients were found to be underweight; 23.9 % had correct body weight; 15,08 % had overweight, while the remaining group had obesity: 51,02 %. People with the android shape have higher non-HDL cholesterol versus with the gynoid shape (p=0.003). The higher was non-HDL, the lower eGFR had studied subjects (p < 0.001). Significant correlation was found between high non-HDL and incorrect dietary habits in patients avoiding eating vegetables, fruits and having low physical activity (p < 0.005). Conclusions: Android type of figure raises the residual risk of the heart disease associated with higher levels of non-HDL. Increasing physical activity in these patients reduces the level of non-HDL. Non-HDL seems to be the best predictor among all cholesterol measures for the cardiovascular events and worsening eGFR.

Keywords: obesity, non-HDL cholesterol, glomerular filtration rate, lifestyle

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Authors: Wan-Ling Jiang, Hsin Chi, Jia-Lu Cheng, Ming-Fang Cheng

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Background: Investigating the risk factors for the fecal carriage of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli could contribute to further disease prevention. Previous research on third-generation cephalosporin-resistant prevalence in children in different regions of Taiwan is limited. This project aims to explore the risk factors and regional differences in the prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant and other antibiotic-resistant E. coli in the northern, southern, and eastern regions of Taiwan. Methods: We collected data from children aged 0 to 18 from community or outpatient clinics from July 2022 to May 2023 in southern, northern, and eastern Taiwan. The questionnaire was designed to survey the characteristics of participants and possible risk factors, such as clinical information, household environment, drinking water, and food habits. After collecting fecal samples and isolating stool culture with E.coli, antibiotic sensitivity tests and MLST typing were performed. Questionnaires were used to analyze the risk factors of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli in the three different regions of Taiwan. Results: In the total 246 stool samples, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli accounted for 37.4% (97/246) of all isolates. Among the three different regions of Taiwan, the highest prevalence of fecal carriage with third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli was observed in southern Taiwan (42.7%), followed by northern Taiwan (35.5%) and eastern Taiwan (28.4%). Multi-drug resistant E. coli had prevalence rates of 51.9%, 66.3%, and 37.1% in the northern, southern, and eastern regions, respectively. MLST typing revealed that ST131 was the most prevalent type (11.8%). The prevalence of ST131 in northern, southern, and eastern Taiwan was 10.1%, 12.3%, and 13.2%, respectively. Risk factors analysis identified lower paternal education, overweight status, and non-vegetarian diet as statistical significance risk factors for third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli. Conclusion: The fecal carriage rates of antibiotic-resistant E. coli among Taiwanese children were on the rise. This study found regional disparities in the prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant and multi-drug-resistant E. coli, with southern Taiwan having the highest prevalence. Lower paternal education, overweight, and non-vegetarian diet were the potential risk factors of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli in this study.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, fecal carriage, antimicrobial resistance, risk factors, prevalence

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Ahmed Ghalem

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The research to be explained is a collection of information about several public and private economic institutions. This information is represented in highlighting the large and useful role in adopting the method of electronic marketing. Which is widespread and easy to use among community members at the local and international levels. Which generates large sums of money with little effort and little time, and also satisfies the customers. Do these things, despite what we have said, run the risk of losing large amounts of money in a moment or a short time.

Keywords: economic, finance, bank, development, marketing

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Authors: Oludare Isaac Abiodun, Esther Omolara Abiodun

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The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that cyberterrorism is existing and poses a threat to computer security and national security. Nowadays, people have become excitedly dependent upon computers, phones, the Internet, and the Internet of things systems to share information, communicate, conduct a search, etc. However, these network systems are at risk from a different source that is known and unknown. These network systems risk being caused by some malicious individuals, groups, organizations, or governments, they take advantage of vulnerabilities in the computer system to hawk sensitive information from people, organizations, or governments. In doing so, they are engaging themselves in computer threats, crime, and terrorism, thereby making the use of computers insecure for others. The threat of cyberterrorism is of various forms and ranges from one country to another country. These threats include disrupting communications and information, stealing data, destroying data, leaking, and breaching data, interfering with messages and networks, and in some cases, demanding financial rewards for stolen data. Hence, this study identifies many ways that cyberterrorists utilize the Internet as a tool to advance their malicious mission, which negatively affects computer security and safety. One could identify causes for disparate anomaly behaviors and the theoretical, ideological, and current forms of the likelihood of cyberterrorism. Therefore, for a countermeasure, this paper proposes the use of previous and current computer security models as found in the literature to help in countering cyberterrorism

Keywords: cyberterrorism, computer security, information, internet, terrorism, threat, digital forensic solution

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, João Casaca

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Using a geographic information system (GIS), the relations between a georeferenced data set of Culex pipiens sl. mosquitoes collected in Portugal mainland during seven years (2006-2012) and meteorological and physiographic parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures), daily total rainfall, altitude, land use/land cover and proximity to water bodies are evaluated. Focus is on the mosquito females; the characterization of its habitat is the key for the planning of chirurgical non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures to avoid ambient degradation. The GIS allow for the spatial determination of the zones were the mosquito mean captures has been above average; using the meteorological values at these coordinates, the limits of each parameter are identified/computed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the thresholds obtained for each parameter. The intersection of the maps obtained for each month show the evolution of the area favorable to the species through the mosquito season, which is from May to October at these latitudes. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters. Three levels of risk could be identified for each parameter, using above average captures as an index. The results were applied to the suitability meteorological maps of each month. The Culex pipiens critical niche is delimited, reflecting the critical areas and the level of risk for transmission of the pathogens to which they are competent vectors (West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses).

Keywords: Culex pipiens, ecological niche, risk assessment, risk management

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Authors: Lynmar M. Didal, Ramises G. Manzano Jr., Jacque Bon-Isaac C. Aboy

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This study analyzes the performance of global minimum variance and naive portfolios across different economic periods, using monthly stock returns from the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI), S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW). The performance is evaluated through the Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, Treynor ratio, and Information ratio. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of short selling on portfolio performance. Six-time periods are defined for analysis, encompassing events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings indicate that the Naive portfolio generally outperforms the GMV portfolio in the S&P 500, signifying higher returns with increased volatility. Conversely, in the PSEI and DOW, the GMV portfolio shows more efficient risk-adjusted returns. Short selling significantly impacts the GMV portfolio during mid-GFC and mid-COVID periods. The study offers insights for investors, suggesting the Naive portfolio for higher risk tolerance and the GMV portfolio as a conservative alternative.

Keywords: portfolio performance, global minimum variance, naïve portfolio, risk-adjusted metrics, short-selling

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Krisada Roekdethawesab, Manoj Lohatepanont

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Overbooking is an approach of selling more goods or services than available capacities because sellers anticipate that some buyers will not show-up or may cancel their bookings. At present, many airlines deploy overbooking strategy in order to deal with the uncertainty of their customers. Particularly, some airlines sell more cargo capacity than what they have available to freight forwarders with beliefs that some of them will cancel later. In this paper, we propose methods to find the optimal overbooking level of volume and weight for air cargo in order to minimize the total cost, containing cost of spoilage and cost of offloaded. Cancellations of volume and weight are jointly random variables with a known joint distribution. Heuristic approaches applying the idea of weight and volume independency is considered to find an appropriate answer to the full problem. Computational experiments are used to explore the performance of approaches presented in this paper, as compared to a naïve method under different scenarios.

Keywords: air cargo overbooking, offloading capacity, optimal overbooking level, revenue management, spoilage capacity

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Melaku Umeta Deressa, Kaleab Baye

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Background: Maternal and child under-nutrition is the underlying cause of 3•5 million annual deaths, globally. Anemia during pregnancy is among the leading nutritional disorders with serious short and long term consequences to both the mother and fetus. Objective: Examine the effect of dietary diversity on maternal anemia, nutritional status and key pregnancy outcomes of pregnancy. Methods: A prospective cohort study design, involving a total of 432 eligible pregnant women, in their second antenatal care visit was conducted between August 2014 to March, 2015. The individual dietary diversity status of mothers was used as the exposure variable to select, enroll and follow the mothers. All mothers were enrolled during second antenatal care visit and followed until delivery. Epi-data, SPSS and STATA software are used to enter and analyze the data. Chi-square test, independent 't'-test, and GLM are used to calculate risk, association and differences between key variables at P < 0.05. Results: Study participants did not differ in many of the basic characteristics (p < 0.05). The incidence of maternal anemia increased significantly from 28.6% to 32.1% between baseline and term. Pregnant mothers with inadequate dietary diversity groups had more (56% at baseline and 68% at term) risk of anemia than the comparison (adequate) groups, (RR, 1.56 and 1.68; 95% CI, 1.24 - 1.83 and 1.39 - 2.04). The overall incidence of still birth, low birth weight and pre-term birth was 4.5%, 9.1% and 13.6%, respectively. The variation of these outcomes was significant across study groups (P < 0.05). Conclusion and recommendations: Dietary diversity status of pregnant mothers has significant effect on the incidence of anemia and key pregnancy outcomes in resource limited settings, like rural Ethiopia. Therefore, apart from the ongoing routine IFA supplementation, special emphasis should be given to dietary diversity of mothers to improve related outcomes of pregnancy and maternal health.

Keywords: anemia, birth weight, dietary diversity, pregnancy, pregnancy outcome

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Authors: Umer Malik, David Armstrong, Mark Ashworth, Alex Dregan, Veline L'Esperance, Lucy McDonnell, Mariam Molokhia, Patrick White

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Introduction: The microbiota lining epithelial surfaces is thought to play an important role in many human physiological functions including defense against pathogens and modulation of immune response. The microbiota is susceptible to disruption from external influences such as exposure to antibiotic medication. It is thought that antibiotic-induced disruption of the microbiota could predispose to pathogen overgrowth and invasion. We hypothesized that antibiotic use would be associated with increased risk of future infections. We carried out a systematic review of evidence of associations between antibiotic use and subsequent risk of community-acquired infections. Methods: We conducted a review of the literature for observational studies assessing the association between antibiotic use and subsequent community-acquired infection. Eligible studies were published before April 29th, 2016. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science and screened titles and abstracts using a predefined search strategy. Infections caused by Clostridium difficile, drug-resistant organisms and fungal organisms were excluded as their association with prior antibiotic use has been examined in previous systematic reviews. Results: Eighteen out of 21,518 retrieved studies met the inclusion criteria. The association between past antibiotic exposure and subsequent increased risk of infection was reported in 16 studies, including one study on Campylobacter jejuni infection (Odds Ratio [OR] 3.3), two on typhoid fever (ORs 5.7 and 12.2), one on Staphylococcus aureus skin infection (OR 2.9), one on invasive pneumococcal disease (OR 1.57), one on recurrent furunculosis (OR 16.6), one on recurrent boils and abscesses (Risk ratio 1.4), one on upper respiratory tract infection (OR 2.3) and urinary tract infection (OR 1.1), one on invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection (OR 1.51), one on infectious mastitis (OR 5.38), one on meningitis (OR 2.04) and five on Salmonella enteric infection (ORs 1.4, 1.59, 1.9, 2.3 and 3.8). The effect size in three studies on Salmonella enteric infection was of marginal statistical significance. A further two studies on Salmonella infection did not demonstrate a statistically significant association between prior antibiotic exposure and subsequent infection. Conclusion: We have found an association between past antibiotic exposure and subsequent risk of a diverse range of infections in the community setting. Our findings provide evidence to support the hypothesis that prior antibiotic usage may predispose to future infection risk, possibly through antibiotic-induced alteration of the microbiota. The findings add further weight to calls to minimize inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions.

Keywords: antibiotic, infection, risk factor, side effect

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Authors: Anh Vo Van Ha, Yun Zhao, Luat Cong Nguyen, Tan Khac Chu, Phung Hoang Nguyen, Minh Ngoc Pham, Colin W. Binns, Andy H. Lee

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This study aims to study longitudinal changes in blood pressure (BP) during the 1-year postpartum period and to evaluate the influence of parity, maternal age at delivery, prepregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain, gestational age at delivery and postpartum maternal weight. A prospective longitudinal cohort study of 883 singleton Vietnamese women was conducted in Hanoi, Haiphong, and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam during 2015-2017. Women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus at 24-28 weeks of gestation, pre-eclampsia, and hypoglycemia was excluded from analysis. BP was repeatedly measured at discharge, 6 and 12 months postpartum using automatic blood pressure monitors. Linear mixed model with repeated measures was used to describe changes occurring during pregnancy to 1-year postpartum. Parity, self-reported prepregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain, maternal age and gestational age at delivery will be treated as time-invariant variables and measured maternal weight will be treated as a time-varying variable in models. Women with higher measured postpartum weight had higher mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), 0.20 mmHg, 95% CI [0.12, 0.28]. Similarly, women with higher measured postpartum weight had higher mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP), 0.15 mmHg, 95% CI [0.08, 0.23]. These differences were both statistically significant, P < 0.001. There were no differences in SBP and DBP depending on parity, maternal age at delivery, prepregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain and gestational age at delivery. Compared with discharge measurement, SBP was significantly higher in 6 months postpartum, 6.91 mmHg, 95% CI [6.22, 7.59], and 12 months postpartum, 6.39 mmHg, 95% CI [5.64, 7.15]. Similarly, DBP was also significantly higher in 6 and months postpartum than at discharge, 10.46 mmHg 95% CI [9.75, 11.17], and 11.33 mmHg 95% CI [10.54, 12.12]. In conclusion, BP measured repeatedly during the postpartum period (6 and 12 months postpartum) showed a statistically significant increase, compared with after discharge from the hospital. Maternal weight was a significant predictor of postpartum blood pressure over the 1-year postpartum period.

Keywords: blood pressure, maternal weight, postpartum, Vietnam

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Authors: Morgan Johansson, Joosef Leppanen, Mathias Flansbjer, Fabio Lozano, Josef Makdesi

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Concrete is commonly used for protective structures and how impact loading affects different types of concrete structures is an important issue. Often the knowledge gained from static loading is also used in the design of impulse loaded structures. A large plastic deformation capacity is essential to obtain a large energy absorption in an impulse loaded structure. However, the structural response of an impact loaded concrete beam may be very different compared to a statically loaded beam. Consequently, the plastic deformation capacity and failure modes of the concrete structure can be different when subjected to dynamic loads; and hence it is not sure that the observations obtained from static loading are also valid for dynamic loading. The aim of this paper is to investigate the residual plastic deformation capacity in reinforced concrete beams subjected to drop weight impact tests. A test-series consisting of 18 simply supported beams (0.1 x 0.1 x 1.18 m, ρs = 0.7%) with a span length of 1.0 m and subjected to a point load in the beam mid-point, was carried out. 2x6 beams were first subjected to drop weight impact tests, and thereafter statically tested until failure. The drop in weight had a mass of 10 kg and was dropped from 2.5 m or 5.0 m. During the impact tests, a high-speed camera was used with 5 000 fps and for the static tests, a camera was used with 0.5 fps. Digital image correlation (DIC) analyses were conducted and from these the velocities of the beam and the drop weight, as well as the deformations and crack propagation of the beam, were effectively measured. Additionally, for the static tests, the applied load and midspan deformation were measured. The load-deformation relations for the beams subjected to an impact load were compared with 6 reference beams that were subjected to static loading only. The crack pattern obtained were compared using DIC, and it was concluded that the resulting crack formation depended much on the test method used. For the static tests, only bending cracks occurred. For the impact loaded beams, though, distinctive diagonal shear cracks also formed below the zone of impact and less wide shear cracks were observed in the region half-way to the support. Furthermore, due to wave propagation effects, bending cracks developed in the upper part of the beam during initial loading. The results showed that the plastic deformation capacity increased for beams subjected to drop weight impact tests from a high drop height of 5.0 m. For beams subjected to an impact from a low drop height of 2.5 m, though, the plastic deformation capacity was in the same order of magnitude as for the statically loaded reference beams. The beams tested were designed to fail due to bending when subjected to a static load. However, for the impact tested beams, one beam exhibited a shear failure at a significantly reduced load level when it was tested statically; indicating that there might be a risk of reduced residual load capacity for impact loaded structures.

Keywords: digital image correlation (DIC), drop weight impact, experiments, plastic deformation capacity, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Nura Lawal, Lawal Suleiman Bilbis, Rabiu Aliyu Umar, Anas A. Sabir

Abstract:

Metabolic syndrome (MS) a high-risk condition involving obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus is prevalent in Nigeria. The study aims to formulate an antioxidant-rich nutraceutical from locally available foodstuff (onion, garlic, ginger, tomato, lemon, palm oil, watermelon seeds) and investigate their effects on blood pressure, body weight, serum glucose, lipid profile, insulin and oxidative stress markers in salt-induced rats. The rats were placed on 8% salt diet for 6 weeks and then supplementation and treatment with nutraceutical and nifedipine in the presence of salt diet for additional 4 weeks. Feeding rats with salt diet for 6 weeks increased blood pressure and body weight of the salt-loaded rats relative to control. Significant (P < 0.001) increase in serum blood glucose and lipid profile, and the decrease in high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) was observed in salt-loaded rats as compared with control. Both supplementation and treatment (nifedipine) lowered the blood pressure but the only supplementation lowered the body weight. Supplementation with nutraceutical resulted in significant (P < 0.001) decrease in the serum blood glucose, lipid profile, malonyldialdehyde (MDA), insulin levels, insulin resistance, and increased HDL-C and antioxidant indices. The percentage protection against atherogenesis was 76.5±2.13%. There is strong positive correlation between blood pressure, body weight and serum blood glucose, lipid profile, markers of oxidative stress and strong negative correlation with HDL-C and antioxidant status. The results suggest that the nutraceuticals are useful in reversing most of the component of metabolic syndrome and might be beneficial in the treatment of patients with metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, hypertension, diabetes mallitus, obesity

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

Abstract:

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

Abstract:

In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Tarang Varmora, Krupa Shah, Karan Patel

Abstract:

Environmental pollution and shortage of conventional fuel are the main concerns in the transportation sector. Most of the vehicles use an internal combustion engine (ICE), powered by gasoline fuels. This results into emission of toxic gases. Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) powered by electric machine and ICE is capable of reducing emission of toxic gases and fuel consumption. However to build HEV, it is required to accommodate motor and batteries in the vehicle along with engine and fuel tank. Thus, overall weight of the vehicle increases. To improve the fuel economy and acceleration, the weight of the HEV can be minimized. In this paper, the design methodology to reduce the weight of the hybrid racing car is proposed. To this end, the chassis design is optimized. Further, attempt is made to obtain the maximum strength with minimum material weight. The best configuration out of the three main configurations such as series, parallel and the dual-mode (series-parallel) is chosen. Moreover, the most suitable type of motor, battery, braking system, steering system and suspension system are identified. The racing car is designed and analyzed in the simulating software. The safety of the vehicle is assured by performing static and dynamic analysis on the chassis frame. From the results, it is observed that, the weight of the racing car is reduced by 11 % without compromising on safety and cost. It is believed that the proposed design and specifications can be implemented practically for manufacturing hybrid racing car.

Keywords: design optimization, hybrid racing car, simulation, vehicle, weight reduction

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

Abstract:

In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Yolanda Indah Permatasari, Sudarsono Hardjosoekarto

Abstract:

Public private partnership (PPP) scheme was considered as an alternative source of funding for infrastructure provision. However, the performance of PPP scheme and interest of private sector to participate in the provision of infrastructure was still practically low. This phenomenon motivates the research to reconstruct the form of collaborative governance at the policy level from the perspective of transaction cost of the PPP scheme. Soft-system methodology (SSM)-based action research was used as this research methodology. The result of this study concludes that the emergence of transaction cost sources at the policy level is caused by the absence of a law that governs infrastructure investment, especially the implementation of PPP scheme. This absence is causing the imbalance in risk allocation and risk mitigation between the public and private sector. Thus, this research recommended the formulation of infrastructure investment law that aims to minimize asymmetry information, to anticipate the principal-principal problems, and to provide legal basis that ensures risk certainty and guarantee fair risk allocation between public and private sector.

Keywords: public governance, public private partnership, soft system methodology, transaction cost

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