Search results for: risk based inspection

Authors: Natalia Limones, Javier Marzo, Marcus Wijnen, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila

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In this research we developed a structured approach for the detection of areas under the highest levels of drought risk that is suitable for data-scarce environments. The methodology is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in successive exercises. The research reviews the history of drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012, focusing on the meteorological and the hydrological drought types. Only global open data information coming from modeling or remote sensing was used for the description of the hydroclimatological variables since there is almost no ground data in this part of the country. Also, the study intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully understand the risk. As a result, a map of the areas under the highest risk in the south of the country is produced, which is one of the main outputs of this work. It was also possible to confirm that the set of indicators used revealed different drought vulnerability profiles in the South of Angola and, as a result, several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts were recognized. The results demonstrated that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that triggered an unprecedent exhaustion of the surface water resources, and that the majority of their socioeconomic impacts started soon after the identified onset of these processes.

Keywords: drought risk, exposure, hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim

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Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.

Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Sujata S. Kulkarni

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Effective and efficient texture feature extraction and classification is an important problem in image understanding and recognition. This paper gives a review on effective texture classification method. The objective of the problem of texture representation is to reduce the amount of raw data presented by the image, while preserving the information needed for the task. Texture analysis is important in many applications of computer image analysis for classification include industrial and biomedical surface inspection, for example for defects and disease, ground classification of satellite or aerial imagery and content-based access to image databases.

Keywords: compressed sensing, feature extraction, image classification, texture analysis

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-topsis, fuzzy set, flight data monitoring (FDM), flight safety

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Authors: Narumon Piaseu

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This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.

Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Choppala Pratheek, Vineet Ahuja

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Background: Crohn's disease (CD) recurrence following surgery is a common challenge, and current detection methods rely on risk factors identified in Western populations. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors and rates of postoperative CD recurrence in a tuberculosis-endemic region like India. Retrospective data was collected from a structured database from a specialty IBD clinic by reviewing case files from January 2005 to December 2021. Inclusion criteria involved CD patients diagnosed based on the ECCO-ESGAR consensus guidelines, who had undergone at least one intestinal resection and had a minimum follow-up period of one year at the IBD clinic. Results: A total of 90 patients were followed up for a median period of 45 months (IQR, 20.75 - 72.00). Out of the 90 patients, 61 received ATT prior to surgery, with a mean delay in diagnosis of 2.5 years, although statistically non-significant (P=0.078). Clinical recurrence occurred in 50% of patients, with the cumulative rate increasing from 13.3% at one year to 40% at three years. Among 63 patients who underwent endoscopy, 65.7% showed evidence of endoscopic recurrence, with the cumulative rate increasing from 31.7% at one year to 55.5% at four years. Smoking was identified as a significant risk factor for early endoscopic recurrence (P=0.001) by Cox regression analysis, but no other risk factors were identified. Initiating post-operative medications prior to clinical recurrence delayed its onset (P=0.004). Subgroup analysis indicated that endoscopic monitoring aided in the early identification of recurrence (P=0.001). The findings contribute to enhancing post-operative CD management strategies in such regions where the disease burden is escalating.

Keywords: crohns, post operative, tuberculosis-endemic, risk factors

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Authors: Reza Safdari, Goli Arji, Robab Abdolkhani Maryam zahmatkeshan

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Background and purpose: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common diseases in all societies. The most important step in minimizing myocardial infarction and its complications is to minimize its risk factors. The amount of medical data is increasingly growing. Medical data mining has a great potential for transforming these data into information. Using data mining techniques to generate predictive models for identifying those at risk for reducing the effects of the disease is very helpful. The present study aimed to collect data related to risk factors of heart infarction from patients’ medical record and developed predicting models using data mining algorithm. Methods: The present work was an analytical study conducted on a database containing 350 records. Data were related to patients admitted to Shahid Rajaei specialized cardiovascular hospital, Iran, in 2011. Data were collected using a four-sectioned data collection form. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Clementine version 12. Seven predictive algorithms and one algorithm-based model for predicting association rules were applied to the data. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values were determined and the final model was obtained. Results: five parameters, including hypertension, DLP, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and A+ blood group, were the most critical risk factors of myocardial infarction. Among the models, the neural network model was found to have the highest sensitivity, indicating its ability to successfully diagnose the disease. Conclusion: Risk prediction models have great potentials in facilitating the management of a patient with a specific disease. Therefore, health interventions or change in their life style can be conducted based on these models for improving the health conditions of the individuals at risk.

Keywords: decision trees, neural network, myocardial infarction, Data Mining

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Authors: Can Mungan, Gokhan Kilic

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Structural engineers and tunnel owners have good reason to attach importance to the assessment and inspection of tunnels. Regular inspection is necessary to maintain and monitor the health of the structure not only at the present time but throughout its life cycle. Detection of flaws within the structure, such as corrosion and the formation of cracks within the internal elements of the structure, can go a long way to ensuring that the structure maintains its integrity over the course of its life. Other issues that may be detected earlier through regular assessment include tunnel surface delamination and the corrosion of the rebar. One advantage of new technology such as the ground penetrating radar (GPR) is the early detection of imperfections. This study will aim to discuss and present the effectiveness of GPR as a tool for assessing the structural integrity of the heavily used tunnel. GPR is used with various antennae in frequency and application method (2 GHz and 500 MHz GPR antennae). The paper will attempt to produce a greater understanding of structural defects and identify the correct tool for such purposes. Conquest View with 3D scanning capabilities was involved throughout the analysis, reporting, and interpretation of the results. This study will illustrate GPR mapping and its effectiveness in providing information of value when it comes to rebar position (lower and upper reinforcement). It will also show how such techniques can detect structural features that would otherwise remain unseen, as well as moisture ingress.

Keywords: tunnel, GPR, health monitoring, moisture ingress, rebar position

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Mohamed El-Bady

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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.

Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: V. A. Ritchie

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The loss of life and livelihood experienced after the magnitude 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004 and magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011, has raised global awareness and brought tsunami phenomenology, nomenclature, and representation into sharp focus. At the same time, travel and tourism continue to increase, contributing around 1 in 11 jobs worldwide. This increase in tourism is especially true for coastal zones, placing pressure on decision-makers to downplay tsunami risks and at the same time provide adequate tsunami warning so that holidaymakers will feel confident enough to visit places of high tsunami risk. This study investigates how well tsunami preparedness messages are getting through for tourist-based businesses in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand, a region of frequent seismic activity and a high probability of experiencing a nearshore tsunami. The aim of this study is to investigate whether tourists based businesses are well informed about tsunamis, how well they understand that information and to what extent their clients are included in awareness raising and evacuation processes. In high-risk tsunami zones, such as Hawke’s Bay, tourism based businesses face competitive tension between short term business profitability and longer term reputational issues related to preventable loss of life from natural hazards, such as tsunamis. This study will address ways to accommodate culturally and linguistically relevant tourist awareness measures without discouraging tourists or being too costly to implement.

Keywords: tsunami risk and response, travel and tourism, business preparedness, cross cultural knowledge transfer

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Authors: Naoko Kanazawa, Tran Thi Bich Nguyet, Yoshiyuki Higuchi, Hideki Hamada

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Construction machines’ condition is maintained with the regularly inspections, preventive maintenance and repairs by skillful and qualified engineers. If an accident occurs, there will be enormous influence such as human injuries, delays in the term of construction. In this paper, we revealed the characteristics such as inspection, maintenance and repair works for construction machines, and we also clarified the trends of employment injuries based on actual data by simple and cross tabulation methods, and investigated the relation with their works, injured body parts and accident types.

Keywords: construction machines, employment injuries, maintenance and repair, safety and health

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

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This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management

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Authors: Kyonghoon Kim, Wonyoung Park, Taeil Park

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In 1994, Korea experienced a national tragedy of Seongsu Bridge collapse. The accident was severe enough to alert governmental officers to the problem of existing management policy for national infrastructures. As a result, government legislated the ‘Guidelines for the safety inspection and test of infrastructure’ which have been utilized as the primary tool to make decision for the maintenance and rehabilitation of infrastructure for last twenty years. Although it is clear that the guideline established a basics how to evaluate and manage the condition of infrastructures in systematic manner, it is equally clear that the guideline needs improvements in order to obtain reasonable investment decisions for budget allocation. Because its inspection and evaluation procedures mainly focused on the structural condition of infrastructures, it was hard to make decision when the infrastructures were in same level of structural condition. In addition, it did not properly reflect various aspects of infrastructures such as performance, public demand, capacity, etc., which were more valuable to public. Regardless of the importance, these factors were commonly neglected in governmental decision-making process, because there factors were somewhat subjective and difficult to quantify in rational manner. Thus, this study proposes a framework to properly evaluate the serviceability indicators using AHP and Fuzzy approach. The framework is expected to assist governmental agency in establishing effective investment strategies for budget planning.

Keywords: infrastructure, evaluation, serviceability, fuzzy

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, I-an Jen, Yi-Ming Arthur Chen

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The molecular mimicry between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protein and red blood cell (RBC) antigens could induce the production of anti-RBC autoantibodies. However, the association between HIV infection and subsequent development of autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) remains unclear. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to determine the association between incident AIHA and HIV in Taiwan. From 2000–2012, we identified adult people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) from the Taiwan centers for disease control HIV Surveillance System. HIV-infected individuals were defined by positive HIV-1 western blot. Age- and sex-matched controls without HIV infection were selected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for comparison. All patients were followed until Dec. 31, 2012, and observed for occurrence of AIHA. Of 171,468 subjects (19,052 PLWHA, 152,416 controls), 30 (0.02%) had incident AIHA during a mean follow-up of 5.45 years, including 23 (0.12%) PLWHA and 7 (0.01%) controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, HIV infection was found to be an independent risk factor of incident AIHA (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 20.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.34-52.3). Moreover, PLWHA receiving HAART were more likely to develop AIHA than those not receiving HAART (AHR, 10.8; 95% CI, 2.90-40.1). Additionally, the risk of AIHA was significantly increased in those taking efavirenz (AHR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.18-8.43) or atazanavir (AHR, 6.58; 95% CI, 1.88-22.9) component of the HAART. In conclusion, HIV infection is an independent risk factor for incident AIHA. Clinicians need to be aware of the higher risk of AIHA in PLWHA.

Keywords: autoimmune disease , hemolytic anemia, HIV, highly active antiretroviral treatment

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Authors: Toni Maristela C. Estabillo, Michaela V. Matienzo, Mikaela L. Sabangan, Rosette M. Tienzo, Justine L. Bahinting

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This study is about blind watermarking on images with different categories and properties using two algorithms namely, Discrete Wavelet Transform and Patchwork Algorithm. A program is created to perform watermark embedding, extraction and evaluation. The evaluation is based on three watermarking criteria namely: image quality degradation, perceptual transparency and security. Image quality is measured by comparing the original properties with the processed one. Perceptual transparency is measured by a visual inspection on a survey. Security is measured by implementing geometrical and non-geometrical attacks through a pass or fail testing. Values used to measure the following criteria are mostly based on Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). The results are based on statistical methods used to interpret and collect data such as averaging, z Test and survey. The study concluded that the combined DWT and Patchwork algorithms were less efficient and less capable of watermarking than DWT algorithm only.

Keywords: blind watermarking, discrete wavelet transform algorithm, patchwork algorithm, digital watermark

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Kaisy Xinhong Ye, Su Lin Lim, Jialiang Li, Lei Feng

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background: Multiple healthful dietary patterns have been linked with dementia, but limited studies have looked at the role of diet in cognitive health in Asians whose eating habits are very different from their counterparts in the west. This study aimed to derive a dietary pattern that is associated with the risk of cognitive impairment (CI) in the Singaporean population. Method: The analysis was based on 719 community older adults aged 60 and above. Dietary intake was measured using a validated semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Reduced rank regression (RRR) was used to extract dietary pattern from 45 food groups, specifying sugar, dietary fiber, vitamin A, calcium, and the ratio of polyunsaturated fat to saturated fat intake (P:S ratio) as response variables. The RRR-derived dietary patterns were subsequently investigated using multivariate logistic regression models to look for associations with the risk of CI. Results: A dietary pattern characterized by greater intakes of green leafy vegetables, red-orange vegetables, wholegrains, tofu, nuts, and lower intakes of biscuits, pastries, local sweets, coffee, poultry with skin, sugar added to beverages, malt beverages, roti, butter, and fast food was associated with reduced risk of CI [multivariable-adjusted OR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.29 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.77); P-trend =0.03]. This pattern was positively correlated with P:S ratio, vitamin A, and dietary fiber and negatively correlated with sugar. Conclusion: A dietary pattern providing high P:S ratio, vitamin A and dietary fiber, and a low level of sugar may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment in old age. The findings have significance in guiding local Singaporeans to dementia prevention through food-based dietary approaches.

Keywords: dementia, cognitive impairment, diet, nutrient, elderly

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Irena Paramita Pramono

Abstract:

Islamic bank is a financial industry with huge potential to grow in Indonesia. Profit-sharing agreement in the operations of Islamic banks distinguishes Islamic banks with conventional banks. Profit-sharing agreement allows sharing of benefits and risks between shahibul maal and mudharib in islamic bank. This study aimed to observe the patterns of influence between the risk-sharing agreement, financing risk and Profitability in Islamic banks. This research used several Islamic banks as sample and path analysis method. The empirical results of this research shows that the profit-sharing agreement in deposits structure has no direct significant effect to ROA, but it has indirect effect to ROA through profit-sharing financing. On the other hand, profit-sharing financing has direct and indirect influence to ROA through financing risk. This research shows that profit-sharing financing has a positive significant effect to the financing risk and also to the ROA. The research recommends Islamic banks to continue using and developing profit-sharing agreement in its operational activities, hence to create value.

Keywords: Islamic bank, profit-loss sharing agreement, financing risk, profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 791

Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

Abstract:

The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Han Gul Lee

Abstract:

When water treatments utilities are designed, an initial construction site risk assessment is conducted. This helps us to understand general safety risks that each utility needs to be complemented in the designing stage. Once it’s built, an additional risk reassessment process secures and supplements its disaster management and response plan. Because of its constantly changing surroundings with city renovation and developments, the degree of various risks that each facility has to face changes. Therefore, to improve the preparedness for spill incidents or disasters, emergency managers should run spill simulations with the available scientific technologies. This research used a two-dimensional flow routing model to simulate its spill disaster scenario based on its digital elevation model (DEM) collected with drone technologies. The results of the simulations can help emergency managers to supplement their response plan with concrete situational awareness in advance. Planning based on this simulation model minimizes its potential loss and damage when an incident like earthquakes man-made disaster happens, which could eventually be a threat in a public health context. This pilot research provides an additional paradigm to increase the preparedness to spill disasters. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Environmental R&D Project on the Disaster Prevention of Environmental Facilities Program funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No.202002860001).

Keywords: risk assessment, disaster management, water treatment utilities, situational awareness, drone technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 133