Search results for: mixture regression model

Authors: David X. Dong, Qingming Zhang, Meng Lu

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Nitrites enter waterways as runoff from croplands and are discharged from many industrial sites. Excessive nitrite inputs to water bodies lead to eutrophication. On-site rapid detection of nitrite is of increasing interest for managing fertilizer application and monitoring water source quality. Existing methods for detecting nitrites use spectrophotometry, ion chromatography, electrochemical sensors, ion-selective electrodes, chemiluminescence, and colorimetric methods. However, these methods either suffer from high cost or provide low measurement accuracy due to their poor selectivity to nitrites. Therefore, it is desired to develop an accurate and economical method to monitor nitrites in environments. We report a low-cost optical sensor, in conjunction with a machine learning (ML) approach to enable high-accuracy detection of nitrites in water sources. The sensor works under the principle of measuring molecular absorptions of nitrites at three narrowband wavelengths (295 nm, 310 nm, and 357 nm) in the ultraviolet (UV) region. These wavelengths are chosen because they have relatively high sensitivity to nitrites; low-cost light-emitting devices (LEDs) and photodetectors are also available at these wavelengths. A regression model is built, trained, and utilized to minimize cross-sensitivities of these wavelengths to the same analyte, thus achieving precise and reliable measurements with various interference ions. The measured absorbance data is input to the trained model that can provide nitrite concentration prediction for the sample. The sensor is built with i) a miniature quartz cuvette as the test cell that contains a liquid sample under test, ii) three low-cost UV LEDs placed on one side of the cell as light sources, with each LED providing a narrowband light, and iii) a photodetector with a built-in amplifier and an analog-to-digital converter placed on the other side of the test cell to measure the power of transmitted light. This simple optical design allows measuring the absorbance data of the sample at the three wavelengths. To train the regression model, absorbances of nitrite ions and their combination with various interference ions are first obtained at the three UV wavelengths using a conventional spectrophotometer. Then, the spectrophotometric data are inputs to different regression algorithm models for training and evaluating high-accuracy nitrite concentration prediction. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach enables instantaneous nitrite detection within several seconds. The sensor hardware costs about one hundred dollars, which is much cheaper than a commercial spectrophotometer. The ML algorithm helps to reduce the average relative errors to below 3.5% over a concentration range from 0.1 ppm to 100 ppm of nitrites. The sensor has been validated to measure nitrites at three sites in Ames, Iowa, USA. This work demonstrates an economical and effective approach to the rapid, reagent-free determination of nitrites with high accuracy. The integration of the low-cost optical sensor and ML data processing can find a wide range of applications in environmental monitoring and management.

Keywords: optical sensor, regression model, nitrites, water quality

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: Anita Sadat Sadati Rostami, Reza Almasi Ghaleh

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Surface electromyography (sEMG) offers important insights into muscle activation and has applications in fields including rehabilitation and human-computer interaction. The purpose of this work is to predict the degree of activation of two joints in the index finger using an LSTM-Transformer architecture trained on sEMG data from the Ninapro DB8 dataset. We apply advanced preprocessing techniques, such as multi-band filtering and customizable rectification methods, to enhance the encoding of sEMG data into features that are beneficial for regression tasks. The processed data is converted into spike patterns and simulated using Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neuron models, allowing for neuromorphic-inspired processing. Our findings demonstrate that adjusting filtering parameters and neuron dynamics and employing the LSTM-Transformer model improves joint angle prediction performance. This study contributes to the ongoing development of deep learning frameworks for sEMG analysis, which could lead to improvements in motor control systems.

Keywords: surface electromyography, LSTM-transformer, spiking neural networks, hand kinematics, leaky integrate-and-fire neuron, band-pass filtering, muscle activity decoding

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Authors: Yasuyo Makido, Vivek Shandas, David J. Sailor, M. Salim Ferwati

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Mitigating extreme urban heat is challenging in a desert climate such as Doha, Qatar, since outdoor daytime temperature area often too high for the human body to tolerate. Recent studies demonstrate that cities in arid and semiarid areas can exhibit ‘urban cool islands’ - urban areas that are cooler than the surrounding desert. However, the variation of temperatures as a result of the time of day and factors leading to temperature change remain at the question. To address these questions, we examined the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in Doha, Qatar by conducting multiple vehicle-base local temperature observations. We also employed three statistical approaches to model surface temperatures using relevant predictors: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) Regression Tree Analysis and (3) Random Forest for three time periods. Although the most important determinant factors varied by day and time, distance to the coast was the significant determinant at midday. A 70%/30% holdout method was used to create a testing dataset to validate the results through Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The Pearson’s analysis suggests that the Random Forest model more accurately predicts the surface temperatures than the other methods. We conclude with recommendations about the types of development patterns that show the greatest potential for reducing extreme heat in air climates.

Keywords: desert cities, tree-structure regression model, urban cool Island, vehicle temperature traverse

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Authors: Liseane Padilha Thives, Mayara S. S. Lima, João Victor Staub De Melo, Glicério Trichês

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Red mud is a waste resulting from the processing of bauxite to alumina, the raw material of the production of aluminum. The large quantity of red mud generated and inadequately disposed in the environment has motivated researchers to develop methods for reinsertion of this waste into the productive cycle. This work aims to evaluate the resistance to permanent deformation of dense asphalt mixtures with red mud filler. The red mud was characterized by tests of X-ray diffraction, fluorescence, specific mass, laser granulometry, pH and scanning electron microscopy. For the analysis of the influence of the quantity of red mud in the mechanical performance of asphalt mixtures, a total filler content of 7% was established. Asphalt mixtures with 3%, 5% and 7% red mud were produced. A conventional mixture with 7% stone powder filler was used as reference. The asphalt mixtures were evaluated for performance to permanent deformation in the French Rutting Tester (FRT) traffic simulator. The mixture with 5% red mud presented greater resistance to permanent deformation with rutting depth at 30,000 cycles of 3.50%. The asphalt mixtures with red mud presented better performance, with reduction of the rutting of 12.63 to 42.62% in relation to the reference mixture. This study confirmed the viability of reinserting the red mud in the production chain and possible usage in the construction industry. The red mud as filler in asphalt mixtures is a reuse option of this waste and mitigation of the disposal problems, as well as being an environmentally friendly alternative.

Keywords: asphalt mixtures, permanent deformation, red mud, pavements

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Authors: Hatice Boyacioglu, Nursel Akkaya, Humeyra Ozge Yilanci, Hilmi Kansu, Nihal Avcu

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The strong relationship between the reduction in the size of the pulp cavity and increasing age has been reported in the literature. This relationship can be utilized to estimate the age of an individual by measuring the pulp cavity size using dental radiographs as a non-destructive method. The purpose of this study is to develop a population specific regression model for age estimation in a sample of Turkish adults by applying Cameriere’s method on panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of 100 panoramic radiographs of Turkish patients (40 men, 60 women) aged between 20 and 70 years. Pulp and tooth area ratios (AR) of the maxilla¬¬ry canines were measured by two maxillofacial radiologists and then the results were subjected to regression analysis. There were no statistically significant intra-observer and inter-observer differences. The correlation coefficient between age and the AR of the maxillary canines was -0.71 and the following regression equation was derived: Estimated Age = 77,365 – ( 351,193 × AR ). The mean prediction error was 4 years which is within acceptable errors limits for age estimation. This shows that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of this research, it was concluded that Cameriere’s method is suitable for dental age estimation and it can be used for forensic procedures in Turkish adults. These instructions give you guidelines for preparing papers for conferences or journals.

Keywords: age estimation by teeth, forensic dentistry, panoramic radiograph, Cameriere's method

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm

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Authors: Aleksandra Y. Sazonova, Valentina M. Raeva

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The aim of this work was to apply extractive distillation for acetonitrile removal from water solutions, to validate thermodynamic criterion based on excess Gibbs energy to entrainer selection process for acetonitrile – water mixture separation and show its potential efficiency at isothermal conditions as well as at isobaric (conditions of real distillation process), to simulate and analyze an extractive distillation process with chosen entrainers: optimize amount of trays and feeds, entrainer/original mixture and reflux ratios. Equimolar composition of the feed stream was chosen for the process, comparison of the energy consumptions was carried out. Glycerol was suggested as the most energetically and ecologically suitable entrainer.

Keywords: acetonitrile, entrainer, extractive distillation, water

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Authors: Aiche Mohamed Amine, Mallem Leila, Yahia El Khansa, Boulakoud Mohamed Salah

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Until recently, toxicological studies focused on the effects of individual chemicals. However, humans and wildlife are exposed to a complex milieu of chemicals from different sources including food and water, personal care products and the environment. The aim of this study is to detect the toxicity of two fungicides and their mixtures in the fertility and oxidative damge induced in the rat. The male of rats (28) were used, they were divided in four groups (7 rats of each group) and one group was used as control. Rats were dosed orally with Propiconazole 60mg/Kg/day, Propinebe 100mg/Kg/day and their mixture 30mg Propiconazole/kg/day + 50mg Propineb/kg/day for 4 weeks. Animals were observed for clinical toxicity. At the end of treatment period, animals of all groups were scarified, blood was collected for hematological and biochemical’s analysis and desired organs were removed and weighted. The results indicated that the fungicide and their mixture were toxic in the treated animals. The semen study showed a decrease in the count and mobility of spermatozoa in all treated group, it was also a decrease in the weight of the testis and epidydimis in the treated group as compared with control. Reduced glutathione (GSH), Glutathione peroxidase (GPx) level was decreased in all treated groups.

Keywords: fungicides, mixtures, fertility, oxidative stress

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Authors: Bhaveek Maini, Sanjay Dhanka, Surita Maini

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Electroencephalography (EEG) is used to classify several epileptic seizures worldwide. It is a very crucial task for the neurologist to identify the epileptic seizure with manual EEG analysis, as it takes lots of effort and time. Human error is always at high risk in EEG, as acquiring signals needs manual intervention. Disease diagnosis using machine learning (ML) has continuously been explored since its inception. Moreover, where a large number of datasets have to be analyzed, ML is acting as a boon for doctors. In this research paper, authors proposed two different ML models, i.e., logistic regression (LR) and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict epileptic seizures based on general parameters. These two techniques are applied to the epileptic seizures recognition dataset, available on the UCI ML repository. The algorithms are implemented on an 80:20 train test ratio (80% for training and 20% for testing), and the performance of the model was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The proposed study has claimed accuracy of 81.87% and 95.49% for LR and NB, respectively.

Keywords: epileptic seizure recognition, logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, machine learning

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Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

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Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

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Authors: Raya Al Khayari, Rasha Al Jassim, Muna Al Balushi, Fatma Al Moqbali, Said El Hajjar

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This study utilizes linear regression analysis to investigate the correlation between user account passwords and the probability of civil ID exposure, offering statistical insights into civil ID security. The study employs multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to further investigate the elements that influence consumers’ views of civil ID security. This aims to increase awareness and improve preventive measures. The results obtained from the MLR analysis provide a thorough comprehension and can guide specific educational and awareness campaigns aimed at promoting improved security procedures. In summary, the study’s results offer significant insights for improving existing security measures and developing more efficient tactics to reduce risks related to civil ID security in Oman. By identifying key factors that impact consumers’ perceptions, organizations can tailor their strategies to address vulnerabilities effectively. Additionally, the findings can inform policymakers on potential regulatory changes to enhance civil ID security in the country.

Keywords: civil-id disclosure, awareness, linear regression, multiple regression

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Authors: M. Ouassaf, S. Belaidi

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Aromatase is an estrogen biosynthetic enzyme belonging to the cytochrome P450 family, which catalyzes the limiting step in the conversion of androgens to estrogens. As it is relevant for the promotion of tumor cell growth. A set of thirty 1,2,3-triazole derivatives was used in the quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) study using regression multiple linear (MLR), We divided the data into two training and testing groups. The results showed a good predictive ability of the MLR model, the models were statistically robust internally (R² = 0.982) and the predictability of the model was tested by several parameters. including external criteria (R²pred = 0.851, CCC = 0.946). The knowledge gained in this study should provide relevant information that contributes to the origins of aromatase inhibitory activity and, therefore, facilitates our ongoing quest for aromatase inhibitors with robust properties.

Keywords: aromatase inhibitors, QSAR, MLR, 1, 2, 3-triazole

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Authors: K. N. Ashna

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Lightweight fills are a viable alternative where weak soils such as soft clay, peat, and loose silt are encountered. Materials such as Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) geo-foam, plastics, tire wastes, rubber wastes have been used along with soil in order to obtain a lightweight fill. Out of these, Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) geo-foam has gained wide popularity in civil engineering over the past years due to its wide variety of applications. It is extremely lightweight, durable and is available in various densities to meet the strength requirements. It can be used as backfill behind retaining walls to reduce lateral load, as a fill over soft clay or weak soils to prevent the excessive settlements and to reduce seismic forces. Geo-foam is available in block form as well as beads form. In this project Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) beads of various diameters and varying densities were mixed along with sand to study their lightweight as well as strength properties. Four types of EPS beads were used 1mm, 2mm, 3-7 mm and a mix of 1-7 mm. In this project, EPS beads were varied at .25%, .5%, .75% and 1% by weight of sand. A water content of 10% by weight of sand was added to prevent segregation of the mixture. Unconsolidated Unconfined (UU) tri-axial test was conducted at 100kPa, 200 kPa and 300 kPa and angle of internal friction, and cohesion was obtained. Unit weight of the mix was obtained for a relative density of 65%. The results showed that by increasing the EPS content by weight, maximum deviator stress, unit weight, angle of internal friction and initial elastic modulus decreased. An optimum EPS bead content was arrived at by considering the strength as well as the unit weight. The stress-strain behaviour of the mix was found to be dependent on type of bead, bead content and density of the beads. Finally, regression equations were developed to predict the initial elastic modulus of the mix.

Keywords: expanded polystyrene beads, geofoam, lightweight fills, stress-strain behavior, triaxial test

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Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

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In urban context, urban nodes such as amenity or hazard will certainly affect house price, while classic hedonic analysis will employ distance variables measured from each urban nodes. However, effects from distances to facilities on house prices generally do not represent the true price of the property. Distance variables measured on the same surface are suffering a problem called multicollinearity, which is usually presented as magnitude variance and mean value in regression, errors caused by instability. In this paper, we provided a theoretical framework to identify and gather the data with less bias, and also provided specific sampling method on locating the sample region to avoid the spatial multicollinerity problem in three distance variable’s case.

Keywords: hedonic regression, urban node, distance variables, multicollinerity, collinearity

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Authors: Slim Chokri

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Load forecasting is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: neural network, load forecasting, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression

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Authors: Martial Amou

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This study was carried out to assess the situation of households’ livelihood under a changing climate pattern in the Zio district of Togo, West Africa. The study examined three important aspects: (i) assessment of households’ livelihood situation under a changing climate pattern, (ii) farmers’ perception and understanding of local climate change, (iii) determinants of adaptation strategies undertaken in cropping pattern to climate change. To this end, secondary sources of data, and survey data collected from 235 farmers in four villages in the study area were used. Adapted conceptual framework from Sustainable Livelihood Framework of DFID, two steps Binary Logistic Regression Model and descriptive statistics were used in this study as methodological approaches. Based on Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA), various factors revolving around the livelihoods of the rural community were grouped into social, natural, physical, human, and financial capital. Thus, the study came up that households’ livelihood situation represented by the overall livelihood index in the study area (34%) is below the standard average households’ livelihood security index (50%). The natural capital was found as the poorest asset (13%) and this will severely affect the sustainability of livelihood in the long run. The result from descriptive statistics and the first step regression (selection model) indicated that most of the farmers in the study area have clear understanding of climate change even though they do not have any idea about greenhouse gases as the main cause behind the issue. From the second step regression (output model) result, education, farming experience, access to credit, access to extension services, cropland size, membership of a social group, distance to the nearest input market, were found to be the significant determinants of adaptation measures undertaken in cropping pattern by farmers in the study area. Based on the result of this study, recommendations are made to farmers, policy makers, institutions, and development service providers in order to better target interventions which build, promote or facilitate the adoption of adaptation measures with potential to build resilience to climate change and then improve rural livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, rural livelihood, cropping pattern, adaptation, Zio District

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Authors: Daming Xu, Yuanyuan Wang

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Abstract: Under the trend of rapid expansion of urbanization, the motorized urban characteristics become more and more obvious, and the walkability of urban space is seriously affected. The construction of walkability of space, as the main mode of travel for the elderly in their daily lives, has become more and more important in the current social context of serious aging. Settlement is the most basic living unit of residents, and daily shopping, medical care, and other daily trips are closely related to the daily life of the elderly. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of built environment on elderly people's daily walking trips at the settlement level for the construction of pedestrian-friendly settlements for the elderly. The study takes three typical settlements in Harbin Daoli District in three different periods as examples and obtains data on elderly people's walking trips and built environment characteristics through field research, questionnaire distribution, and internet data acquisition. Finally, correlation analysis and multinomial logistic regression model were applied to analyze the influence mechanism of built environment on elderly people's walkability based on the control of personal attribute variables in order to provide reference and guidance for the construction of walkability for elderly people in built environment in the future.

Keywords: built environment, elderly, walkability, multinomial logistic regression model

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Authors: Nelson Bii, Christopher Ouma, John Odhiambo

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Non-response is a potential source of errors in sample surveys. It introduces bias and large variance in the estimation of finite population parameters. Regression models have been recognized as one of the techniques of reducing bias and variance due to random non-response using auxiliary data. In this study, it is assumed that random non-response occurs in the survey variable in the second stage of cluster sampling, assuming full auxiliary information is available throughout. Auxiliary information is used at the estimation stage via a regression model to address the problem of random non-response. In particular, the auxiliary information is used via an improved Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression technique to compensate for random non-response. The asymptotic bias and mean squared error of the estimator proposed are derived. Besides, a simulation study conducted indicates that the proposed estimator has smaller values of the bias and smaller mean squared error values compared to existing estimators of finite population mean. The proposed estimator is also shown to have tighter confidence interval lengths at a 95% coverage rate. The results obtained in this study are useful, for instance, in choosing efficient estimators of the finite population mean in demographic sample surveys.

Keywords: mean squared error, random non-response, two-stage cluster sampling, confidence interval lengths

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Authors: Kamran Taghizadeh

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This study was aimed at evaluating the effect of IMS including occupational health system, environmental management system, and safety and health system on the social responsibility (case study of NISOC`s oil and gas production companies). This study`s objectives include evaluating the IMS situation and its effect on social responsibility in addition of providing appropriate solutions based on the study`s hypotheses as a basis for future. Data collection was carried out by library and field studies as well as a questionnaire. The stratified random method was the sampling method and a sample of 285 employees in addition to the collected data (from the questionnaire) were analyzed by inferential statistics methods using SPSS software. Finally, results of regression and fitted model at a significance level of 5% confirmed all hypotheses meaning that IMS and its items have a significant effect on social responsibility.

Keywords: social responsibility, integrated management, oil and gas production companies, regression

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Authors: Huseyin A. Yavasoglu, Yusuf Ziya Tengiz, Ali Göksenli

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In this study, an automatic feeding machine for different type and class of bovine animals is designed. Daily nutrition of a bovine consists of grass, corn, straw, silage, oat, wheat and different vitamins and minerals. The amount and mixture amount of each of the nutrition depends on different parameters of the bovine. These parameters are; age, sex, weight and maternity of the bovine, also outside temperature. The problem in a farm is to constitute the correct mixture and amount of nutrition for each animal. Faulty nutrition will cause an insufficient feeding of the animal concluding in an unhealthy bovine. To solve this problem, a new automatic feeding machine is designed. Travelling of the machine is performed by four tires, which is pulled by a tractor. The carrier consists of eight bins, which each of them carries a nutrition type. Capacity of each unit is 250 kg. At the bottom of each chamber is a sensor measuring the weight of the food inside. A funnel is at the bottom of each chamber by which open/close function is controlled by a valve. Each animal will carry a RFID tag including ID on its ear. A receiver on the feeding machine will read this ID and by given previous information by the operator (veterinarian), the system will detect the amount of each nutrition unit which will be given to the selected animal for feeding. In the system, each bin will open its exit gate by the help of the valve under the control of PLC (Programmable Logic Controller). The amount of each nutrition type will be controlled by measuring the open/close time. The exit canals of the bins are collected in a reservoir. To achieve a homogenous nitration, the collected feed will be mixed by a worm gear. Further the mixture will be transported by a help of a funnel to the feeding unit of the animal. The feeding process can be performed in 100 seconds. After feeding of the animal, the tractor pulls the travelling machine to the next animal. By the help of this system animals can be feeded by right amount and mixture of nutrition

Keywords: bovine, feeding, nutrition, transportation, automatic

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Authors: Phatu William Mashela, Pontsho Edmund Tseke, Kgabo Martha Pofu

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‘Inconsistent results’ in nematode suppression post-application of botanical-based products created credibility concerns. Relative to untreated control, sampling for nematodes post-application of botanical-based products suggested significant increases in nematode population densities. ‘Inconsistent results’ were confirmed in Tylenchulus semipenetrans on Citrus jambhiri seedlings when sampling was carried out at 120 days post-application of a granular Nemarioc-AG phytonematicide. The objective of this study was to determine post-application effects of untreated control, Nemarioc-AG phytonematicide and aldicarb to T. semipenetrans population densities on C. jambhiri seedlings. Two hundred and ten seedlings were each inoculated with 10000 T. semipenetrans eggs and second-stage juveniles (J2) in plastic pots containing 2700 ml growing mixture. A week after inoculation, seedlings were equally split and subjected to once-off treatment of 2 g aldicarb, 2 g Nemarioc-AG phytonematicide and untreated control. Five seedlings from each group were randomly placed on greenhouse benches to serve as a sampling block, with a total of 14 blocks. The entire block was sampled weekly and assessed for final nematode population density (Pf). After the final assessment, post-regression of untreated Pf to increasing sampling intervals exhibited positive quadratic relations, with the model explaining 90% associations, with optimum Pf of 13804 eggs and J2 at six weeks post-application. In contrast, treated Pf and increasing sampling interval exhibited negative quadratic relations, with the model explaining 95% and 92% associations in phytonematicide and aldicarb, respectively. In the phytonematicide, Pf was 974 eggs and J2, whereas that in aldicarb was 2205 eggs and J2 at six weeks. In conclusion, temporal cyclic nematode population growth provided an empirically-based explanation of ‘inconsistent results’ in nematode suppression post-application of the two nematode management strategies.

Keywords: nematode management, residual effect, slow decline of citrus, the citrus nematode

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Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

Abstract:

Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Morteza Karami, Soheila Dayani

Abstract:

Deep Soil Mixing (DSM) is a soil improvement technique that involves mechanically mixing the soil with a binder material to improve its strength, stiffness, and durability. This technique is typically used in geotechnical engineering applications where weak or unstable soil conditions exist, such as in building foundations, embankment support, or ground improvement projects. In this study, the settlement of the foundation on the improved soil using the wet DSM technique has been analyzed for a case study. Before DSM production, the initial soil mixture has been determined based on the laboratory tests and then, the proper mix designs have been optimized based on the pilot scale tests. The results show that the spacing and depth of the DSM columns depend on the soil properties, the intended loading conditions, and other factors such as the available space and equipment limitations. Moreover, monitoring instruments installed in the pilot area verify that the settlement of the foundation has been placed in an acceptable range to ensure that the soil mixture is providing the required strength and stiffness to support the structure or load. As an important result, if the DSM columns touch or penetrate into the stiff soil layer, the settlement of the foundation can be significantly decreased. Furthermore, the DSM columns should be allowed to cure sufficiently before placing any significant loads on the structure to prevent excessive deformation or settlement.

Keywords: deep soil mixing, soil mixture, settlement, instrumentation, curing age

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Authors: Lucas Wilman Crispim, Patrícia Hallack, Maikel Ballester

Abstract:

This work aims at modeling electric discharges in gas mixtures. The mathematical model mimics the ignition process in a commercial spark-plug when a high voltage is applied to the plug terminals. A longitudinal unidimensional Cartesian domain is chosen for the simulation region. Energy and mass transfer are considered for a macroscopic fluid representation, while energy transfer in molecular collisions and chemical reactions are contemplated at microscopic level. The macroscopic model is represented by a set of uncoupled partial differential equations. Microscopic effects are studied within a discrete model for electronic and molecular collisions in the frame of ZDPlasKin, a plasma modeling numerical tool. The BOLSIG+ solver is employed in solving the electronic Boltzmann equation. An operator splitting technique is used to separate microscopic and macroscopic models. The simulation gas is a mixture of atomic Argon neutral, excited and ionized. Spatial and temporal evolution of such species and temperature are presented and discussed.

Keywords: CFD, electronic discharge, ignition, spark plug

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Authors: Suboohi Shervani, Jingjing Ling, Jiabin Liu, Tahir Husain

Abstract:

Offshore oil-spill has become the most emerging problem in the world. In the current paper, a graphene/ZnO/polymer nanocomposite thin film is coated on stainless steel mesh via layer by layer deposition method. The structural characterization of materials is determined by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) and separation efficiency have been measured via gas chromatography – flame ionization detector (GC-FID). TPHs are reduced to 2 ppm and separation efficiency of the nanocomposite coated mesh is reached ≥ 99% for the final sample. The nanocomposite coated mesh acts as a promising candidate for the separation of oil- water mixture.

Keywords: oil spill, graphene, oil-water separation, nanocomposite

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Zunaidah Ab Hasan, Azhana Othman, Abd Halim Mohd Noor, Nor Shahrina Mohd Rafien

Abstract:

Zakat is a portion of wealth contributed from financially able Muslims to be distributed to predetermine recipients; main among them are the poor and the needy. Distribution of the zakat fund is given with the objective to lift the recipients from poverty. Due to the multidimensional and multifaceted nature of poverty, it is imperative that the causes of poverty are properly identified for assistance given by zakat authorities reached the intended target. Despite, various studies undertaken to identify the poor correctly, there are reports of the poor not receiving the adequate assistance required from zakat. Thus, this study examines the determinants of poverty among applicants for zakat assistance distributed by the State Islamic Religious Council in Malacca (SIRCM). Malacca is a state in Malaysia. The respondents were based on the list of names of new zakat applicants for the month of April and May 2014 provided by SIRCM. A binary logistic regression was estimated based on this data with either zakat applications is rejected or accepted as the dependent variable and set of demographic variables and health as the explanatory variables. Overall, the logistic model successfully predicted factors of acceptance of zakat applications. Three independent variables namely gender, age; size of households and health significantly explain the likelihood of a successful zakat application. Among others, the finding suggests the importance of focusing on providing education opportunity in helping the poor.

Keywords: logistic regression, zakat distribution, status of zakat applications, poverty, education

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Authors: Duhania O. Mahara, Santi W. Purnami, Aulia N. Fitria, Merissa N. Z. Wirontono, Revina Musfiroh, Shofi Andari, Sagiran Sagiran, Estiana Khoirunnisa, Wahyudi Widada

Abstract:

For assessing interventions in numerous disease areas, the use of multiple time-to-event outcomes is common. An individual might experience two different events called bivariate time-to-event data, the events may be correlated because it come from the same subject and also influenced by individual characteristics. The bivariate time-to-event case can be applied by copula-based bivariate Cox survival model, using the Clayton and Frank copulas to analyze the dependence structure of each event and also the covariates effect. By applying this method to modeling the recurrent event infection of hemodialysis insertion on chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, from the AIC and BIC values we find that the Clayton copula model was the best model with Kendall’s Tau is (τ=0,02).

Keywords: bivariate cox, bivariate event, copula function, survival copula

Procedia PDF Downloads 80