Search results for: current scenario assessment

Authors: Jocelyn Jones

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The objective of this literature review is to provide an assessment of the current literature concerning gender-based violence (GBV) within indigenous communities in Argentina and Costa Rica, and various public intervention strategies that have been implemented to counter the increasing rates of violence within these populations. The review will address some of the unique challenges and contextual factors influencing the prevalence and response to such violence, including the enduring impact of colonialism on familial structures, community dynamics, and the perpetuation of violence. Drawing on indigenous feminist perspectives, the paper critically assesses the intersectionality of gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic status in shaping the experiences of indigenous women, men, and gender-diverse individuals. In comparing the two nations, the literature review identifies commonalities and divergences in policy frameworks, legal responses, and grassroots initiatives aimed at addressing GBV. Regarding the assessment of the efficacy of existing interventions, the paper will consider the role of cultural revitalization, community engagement, and collaborative efforts between indigenous communities and external agencies in the development of future policies. Moreover, the review will highlight the importance of decolonizing methodologies in research and intervention strategies, and the need to emphasise culturally sensitive approaches that respect and integrate indigenous worldviews and traditional knowledge systems. Additionally, the paper will explore the potential impact of colonial legacies, resource extraction, and land dispossession on exacerbating vulnerabilities to GBV within indigenous communities. The aim of this paper is to contribute to a more in-depth understanding of GBV in indigenous contexts in order to promote cross-cultural learning and inform future research. Ultimately, this review will demonstrate the necessity of adopting a holistic and context-specific approach to address gender-based violence in indigenous communities.

Keywords: gender based violence, indigenous, colonialism, literature review

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Jayson Vicente

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The young men and women of Philippine Military Academy Cadet Corps Armed Forces of the Philippines (PMA CCAFP) are bred to be front liners and last line of defense during war and times of peace; as such, they must be equipped with the most practical and most effective combat-ready Martial Arts and Combative skills to effectively fulfill their duty, as well as to protect and safeguard themselves to continue serving the people and their country. This study shall assess the current Martial Arts and Combative Program of the PMA CCAFP using descriptive methodology by interviews and floating questionnaires. The current Martial Arts and Combative Program of the PMA CCAFP with all of the subjects involved are more sports inclined rather than combat-equipped. Picking the best from each subject used in the program, this study seeks to recommend improvements or create a better Martial Arts and Combative Program that will satisfy the objective of producing Martial Arts combatant graduates. A good Martial Arts and Combative Program for PMA is essential to prepare them for what lies ahead, which is unforgiving and no rules to pacify threat.

Keywords: combative, martial arts, military, program

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Authors: Yusuf Nugroho Doyo Yekti, Budi Praptono, Fransiskus Tatas Dwi Atmaji

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There is no ergonomic prototype testing method for manual material handling yet. This study has been carried out to demonstrate the comprehensive ergonomic assessment. The ergonomic assessment is important to improve safety of products and to ensure usefulness of the product. The prototype testing is conducted by involving few intended users and ordinary people. In this study, there are four operators who participated in several tests. Also, there are 30 ordinary people who joined the usability test. All the ordinary people never do material handling activity nor use material handling device. The methods used in the tests are Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA), Recommended Weight Limit (RWL), and Cardiovascular Load (%CVL) other than usability test and questionnaire. The proposed testing methods cover comprehensive ergonomic aspects, i.e. physical aspect, mental aspect, emotional aspects of human.

Keywords: ergonomic, manual material handling, prototype testing, assessment

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Authors: Muhammad Atif Randhawa, Adnan Amjad

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Assessment of insecticides used for growing vegetables in comparison with their safety status was the main purpose of this study. A total of 180 samples of okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L.) and brinjal (Solanum melongena L.) comprising 30 samples of each vegetable were collected from the peri-urban farming system of Multan, Faisalabad and Gujranwala. The mean value for imidacloprid residues found in brinjal (0.226 mg kg-1) and okra (0.176 mg kg-1) from Multan region were greater than the residues reported from Gujranwala and Faisalabad, showing excessive application of imidacloprid in Multan. Out of total 180 samples analysed for imidacloprid and acetamaprid residues, (90 samples for each of okra and brinjal), 104 (58%) and 117 (65%) samples contained detectable imidacloprid and acetamiprid residues, respectively. Whereas 10% and 15% samples exceeded their respective MRLs for imidacloprid and acetamiprid residues. Dietary intake assessment for imidacloprid and acetamiprid was calculated according to their MPI values 3.84 and 4.48 mg person-1day-1, respectively. The dietary intake assessment data revealed that although a reasonable proportion of samples exceeded the MRLs in studied areas but their consumption was found within safe limit in comparison to values obtained for MPI.

Keywords: Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI), insecticides, Maximum Residual Limits (MRLs), risk assessment, vegetables

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Authors: S. Bennoud, M. Zergoug

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The numerical simulation of electromagnetic interactions is still a challenging problem, especially in problems that result in fully three dimensional mathematical models. The goal of this work is to use mathematical modeling to characterize the reliability and capacity of eddy current technique to detect and characterize defects embedded in aeronautical in-service pieces. The finite element method is used for describing the eddy current technique in a mathematical model by the prediction of the eddy current interaction with defects. However, this model is an approximation of the full Maxwell equations. In this study, the analysis of the problem is based on a three dimensional finite element model that computes directly the electromagnetic field distortions due to defects.

Keywords: eddy current, finite element method, non destructive testing, numerical simulations

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Authors: Rajeshkumar Mahendrabhai Patel, Narendrakumar D. Vasava

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It is seen that higher education in India requires a high degree of attention for the quality. The Government of India has been putting its efforts to improvise the quality of higher education through different means such as need based changes in the policy of higher education, accreditation of the institutions of higher education and many others. The Social Work education in India started way back in Tata School of Social Sciences in the year 1936. Gradually the need for social work education was felt, and different institution started imparting social work education in different regions. Due to the poor educational policy of Gujarat state (The Concept of Self-Financed Education) different Universities initiated the MSW program on a self-financed basis. The present scenario of the Social work Education in Gujarat faces ample challenges and problems which need to be addressed consciously. The present paper will try to examine and analyze the challenges and problems such as curriculum, staffing, quality of teaching, the pattern of education etc. The probable responses to this scenario are also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: social work education, challenges, problems, responses, self-financed education in Gujarat

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Authors: Hilalah Alturkistani, Alaa AlFaadhel, Nora AlJahani, Fatiha Djebbar

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Cloud computing is one of the most widely used technology which provides opportunities and services to government entities, large companies, and standard users. However, cybersecurity risk management studies of cloud computing and resiliency approaches are lacking. This paper proposes resilient cloud cybersecurity risk assessment and management tailored specifically, to Dropbox with two approaches:1) technical-based solution motivated by a cybersecurity risk assessment of cloud services, and 2)a target personnel-based solution guided by cybersecurity-related survey among employees to identify their knowledge that qualifies them withstand to any cyberattack. The proposed work attempts to identify cloud vulnerabilities, assess threats and detect high risk components, to finally propose appropriate safeguards such as failure predicting and removing, redundancy or load balancing techniques for quick recovery and return to pre-attack state if failure happens.

Keywords: cybersecurity risk management plan, resilient cloud computing, cyberattacks, cybersecurity risk assessment

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Muhammad Shahzad Shifa, Amna Shifa, Muhammad Omar, Aamir Shahzad, Rahmat Ali Khan

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Many applications of remote sensing to vegetation and crop response depend on spectral properties of individual leaves and plants. Vegetation indices are usually determined to estimate crop biophysical parameters like crop canopies and crop leaf area indices with the help of remote sensing. Cotton crops assessment is performed with the help of vegetative indices. Remotely sensed images from an optical multispectral radiometer MSR5 are used in this study. The interpretation is based on the fact that different materials reflect and absorb light differently at different wavelengths. Non-normalized and normalized forms of these datasets are analyzed using two complementary data mining algorithms; K-means and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). Our analysis shows that the use of normalized reflectance data and vegetative indices are suitable for an automated assessment and decision making.

Keywords: cotton, condition assessment, KNN algorithm, clustering, MSR5, vegetation indices

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Authors: Faith Abdul Rasak Asharaf

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Every city has a threshold known as urban carrying capacity based on which it can withstand a particular density of people, above which the city might need to resort to measures like expanding its boundaries or growing vertically. As a result of this circumstance, the number of squatter communities is growing, as is the claustrophobic feeling of being confined inside a "concrete jungle." The expansion of suburbs, commercial areas, and industrial real estate in the areas surrounding medium-sized cities has resulted in changes to their landscapes and urban forms, as well as a systematic shift in their role in the urban hierarchy when functional endowment and connections to other territories are considered. The urban carrying capacity idea provides crucial guidance for city administrators and planners in better managing, designing, planning, constructing, and distributing urban resources to satisfy the huge demands of an evergrowing urban population. An ecological footprint is a criterion of urban carrying capacity, which is the amount of land required to provide humanity with renewable resources and absorb its trash. However, as each piece of land has its unique carrying capacity, including ecological, social, and economic considerations, these metropolitan areas begin to reach a saturation point over time. Various city models have been tried throughout the years to meet the increasing urban population density by moving the zones of work, life, and leisure to achieve maximum sustainable growth. The current scenario is that of a vertical city and compact city concept, in which the maximum density of people is attempted to fit into a definite area using efficient land use and a variety of other strategies, but this has proven to be a very unsustainable method of growth, as evidenced by the COVID-19 period. Due to a shortage of housing and basic infrastructure, densely populated cities gave rise to massive squatter communities, unable to accommodate the overflowing migrants. To achieve optimum carrying capacity, planning measures such as polycentric city and diffuse city concepts can be implemented, which will help to relieve the congested city core by relocating certain sectors of the town to the city periphery, which will help to create newer spaces for design in terms of public space, transportation, and housing, which is a major concern in the current scenario. The study's goal is focused on suggesting design options and solutions in terms of placemaking for better urban quality and urban life for the citizens once city centres have been de-densified based on urban carrying capacity and ecological footprint, taking the case of Kochi as an apt example of a highly densified city core, focusing on Edappally, which is an agglomeration of many urban factors.

Keywords: urban carrying capacity, urbanization, urban sprawl, ecological footprint

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Authors: Abraham O. Olaniyi, Oluyemi Oke, Atilade Otunla

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The structural performance of bridges decreases progressively throughout their service life due to many contributing factors (fatigue, carbonation, fire incidents etc.). Around the world, numerous bridges have attained their estimated service life and many have approached this limit. The structural integrity assessment of the burnt composite bridge located at CH57+450, Koita village along Abuja-Abaji-Lokoja road, Nigeria, is presented as a case study and shall be forthwith referred to as the 'Koita bridge' in this paper. From the technical evaluation, the residual compressive strength of the concrete piers was found to be below 16.0 N/mm2. This value is very low compared to the expected design value of 30.0 N/mm2. The pier capping beam at pier location 1 has a very low residual compressive strength. The cover to the reinforcement of certain capping beams has an outline of reinforcement which signifies poor concrete cover and the mean compressive strength is also less than 20.0 N/mm2. The steel girder indicated black colouration as a result of the fire incident without any significant structural defect like buckling or warping of the steel section. This paper reviews the structural integrity assessment and repair methodology of the Koita bridge; a composite bridge damaged by fire, highlighting the various challenges of limited obtainable guidance documents about the bridge. The objectives are to increase the understanding of processes and versatile equipment required to test and assess a fire-damaged bridge in order to improve the quality of structural appraisal and rehabilitation; thus, eliminating the prejudice associated with current visual inspection techniques.

Keywords: assessment, bridge, rehabilitation, sustainability

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Authors: Golshid Gilani, Albert De La Fuente, Ana Blanco

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Sustainability assessment of new and existing buildings has generated a growing interest due to the evident environmental, social and economic impacts during their construction and service life. Façades, as one of the most important exterior elements of a building, may contribute to the building sustainability by reducing the amount of energy consumption and providing thermal comfort for the inhabitants, thus minimizing the environmental impact on both the building and on the environment. Various methods have been used for the sustainability assessment of buildings due to the importance of this issue. However, most of the existing methods mainly concentrate on environmental and economic aspects, disregarding the third pillar of sustainability, which is the social aspect. Besides, there is a little focus on comprehensive sustainability assessment of facades, as an important element of a building. This confirms the need of developing methods for assessing the sustainable performance of building façades as an important step in achieving building sustainability. In this respect, this paper aims at presenting a model for assessing the global sustainability of façade systems. for that purpose, the Integrated Value Model for Sustainable Assessment (MIVES), a Multi-Criteria Decision Making model that integrates the main sustainability requirements (economic, environmental and social) and includes the concept of value functions, used as an assessment tool.

Keywords: façade, MCDM, MIVES, sustainability

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Authors: Anita De Melo

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Today we live in a crucial time of ecological crisis, of environmental catastrophes worldwide, and this scenario is, arrogantly, overlooked by powerful economic forces and their politics. Thus, a critical pedagogy that leads to action and that fosters ecoliteracy, environment education, is now inevitable, and it must become an integral part of the school curriculum across the disciplines, including the social sciences and the humanities. One of the most important contemporary and emerging movement of today is ecopedagogy, a movement that blends theory and ethics towards a curriculum that focus on an environmental education that will promote ecological justice, respect, and care by educating students to become planetary citizens. This paper aims, first, to emphasize the need for discussions and investigations regarding ecoliteracy within our field of teaching foreign languages, which will consider, among others, the of role language in stimulating sustainability, and the role of second language proficiency in fostering positive transnational dialogues conducive to fighting our current planetary crisis. Second, this paper suggests and discusses some critical ecopedagogical practices -- in the form of project-based learning, service-learning and environmental-oriented study abroad programs – apropos to ecoliteracy. These interdisciplinary projects can and should bring students in contact with communities speaking the target language, and such encounter would facilitate cultural exchanges and promote positive language proficiency whilst it would also give students the opportunity to work with finding ideas/projects to fight our current ecological catastrophe.

Keywords: critical pedagogy, ecoliteracy, ecopedagogy, planetary crisis

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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Authors: Reza Moslemi, Sebastien Perrier

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Water infrastructure deterioration can result in increased operational costs owing to increased repair needs and non-revenue water and consequently cause a reduced level of service and customer service satisfaction. Various water main condition assessment technologies have been introduced to the market in order to evaluate the level of pipe deterioration and to develop appropriate asset management and pipe renewal plans. One of the challenges for any condition assessment and inspection program is to determine the percentage of the water network and the combination of pipe segments to be inspected in order to obtain a meaningful representation of the status of the entire water network with a desirable level of accuracy. Traditionally, condition assessment has been conducted by selecting pipes based on age or location. However, this may not necessarily offer the best approach, and it is believed that by using a smart sampling methodology, a better and more reliable estimate of the condition of a water network can be achieved. This research investigates three different sampling methodologies, including random, stratified, and systematic. It is demonstrated that selecting pipes based on the proposed clustering and sampling scheme can considerably improve the ability of the inspected subset to represent the condition of a wider network. With a smart sampling methodology, a smaller data sample can provide the same insight as a larger sample. This methodology offers increased efficiency and cost savings for condition assessment processes and projects.

Keywords: condition assessment, pipe degradation, sampling, water main

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Authors: Navdeep Singh Randhawa, Shally Sharma

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Wireless Sensor Network is an autonomous technology emanating in the current scenario at a fast pace. This technology faces a number of defiance’s and energy management is one of them, which has a huge impact on the network lifetime. To sustain energy the different types of routing protocols have been flourished. The classical routing protocols are no more compatible to perform in complicated environments. Hence, in the field of routing the intelligent algorithms based on nature systems is a turning point in Wireless Sensor Network. These nature-based algorithms are quite efficient to handle the challenges of the WSN as they are capable of achieving local and global best optimization solutions for the complex environments. So, the main attention of this paper is to develop a routing algorithm based on some swarm intelligent technique to enhance the performance of Wireless Sensor Network.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, routing, swarm intelligence, MPRSO

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

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Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: Behdokht Mall-Amiri, Sara Farzaminejad

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The purpose of the present study was to discover which of the two writing activities, a self-assessment questioner or a critical thinking skills handout, is more effective on Iranian EFL learners’ writing ability. To fulfill the purpose of the study, a sample of 120 undergraduate students of English SAT for a standardized sample of PET. Eighty-two students whose scores fell one standard deviation above and below the sample mean were selected and randomly divided into two equal groups. One group practiced self-assessment and the other group practiced critical thinking skills while they were learning process writing. A writing posttest was finally administered to the students in both groups and the mean rank scores were compared by t-test. The result led to the rejection of the null hypothesis, indicating that practicing critical thinking skills had a significantly higher effect on the writing ability. The implications of the study for students and teachers as well as course book designers are discussed.

Keywords: writing ability, process writing, critical thinking skills, self-assessment

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Authors: Deanna Ruano-Meas, Laura Shenkman

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Variances are seen in the way healthcare personnel (HCP) don and doff PPE risking contamination to self and others. By standardizing practice, variances in technique decrease, and so does the risk of contamination. To implement this change, the Model for Improvement will be used. A system change will be developed that will outline the role of the organizational leader’s support of HCP in the proper donning and doffing of PPE. Interventions will include environmental surveys to assess the safety and work situation ensuring a permissible environment, plan audits to confirm consistency, and the assessment of PPE wear for standardization. The change will also include an educational plan that will involve instruction of the current guidelines recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to all pertinent HCP, and the incorporation of PPE education in yearly educational training. The goal is a standardized practice and a reduced risk of contamination through education and organizational support. Personal protective equipment has had recent attention with the coming of the SARS-CoV-2. The realization that proper technique is important to decreasing contamination of pathogens has led to the revising of current processes.

Keywords: donning and doffing, HAI, infection control, PPE

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Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

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Authors: T. Gayen

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Although, there are several software reliability models existing today there does not exist any versatile model even today which can be used for the reliability assessment of software. Complex software has a large number of states (unlike the hardware) so it becomes practically difficult to completely test the software. Irrespective of the amount of testing one does, sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to assure that the final software product is fault free. The Black Box Software Reliability models are found be quite uncertain for the reliability assessment of various systems. As mission critical applications need to be highly reliable and since it is not always possible to ensure the development of highly reliable system. Hence, in order to achieve fault-free operation of software one develops some mechanism to handle faults remaining in the system even after the development. Although, several such techniques are currently in use to achieve fault tolerance, yet these mechanisms may not always be very suitable for various systems. Hence, this discussion is focused on analyzing the issues and challenges faced with the existing techniques for reliability assessment and fault tolerance of various software systems.

Keywords: black box, fault tolerance, failure, software reliability

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Authors: Jennifer Holbein, Maritza Wiedel

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Background: Aging is associated with an increased risk of falls in older adults, and as a result, falls have become public health crises. However, the incidence of falls can be reduced through healthy aging and the implementation of a regular exercise and strengthening program. Public health and healthcare professionals authorize the use of evidence‐based, exercise‐focused fall interventions, but there are major obstacles to translating and disseminating research findings into healthcare practices. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of an intervention, A Matter of Balance, in terms of demand, acceptability, and implementation into current exercise programs. Subjects: Seventy-five participants from rural communities, above the age of sixty, were randomized to an intervention or attention-control of the standardized senior fitness test. Methods: Subject completes the intervention, which combines two components: (1) motivation and (2) fall-reducing physical activities with protocols derived from baseline strength and balanced assessments. Participants (n=75) took part in the program after completing baseline functional assessments as well as evaluations of their personal knowledge, health outcomes, demand, and implementation interventions. After 8-weeks of the program, participants were invited to complete follow-up assessments with results that were compared to their baseline functional analyses. Out of all the participants in the study who complete the initial assessment, approximately 80% are expected to maintain enrollment in the implemented prescription. Furthermore, those who commit to the program should show mitigation of fall risk upon completion of their final assessment.

Keywords: aging population, exercise, falls, functional assessment, healthy aging

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Manish Khanra, Shashank Prabhu

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The decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors is currently high on the agenda in the EU and its member states, as these sectors have substantial shares in overall GHG emissions while it is facing serious challenges to decarbonize. In particular, the aviation sector accounts for 2.8% of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. These emissions are anticipated to grow dramatically unless immediate mitigating efforts are implemented. Hydrogen and its derivatives based on renewable electricity can have a key role in the transition towards CO₂-neutral flights. The substantial shares of energy carriers in the form of drop-in fuel, direct combustion and Hydrogen-to-Electric are promising in most scenarios towards 2050. For creating appropriate policies to ramp up the production and utilisation of hydrogen commodities in the German aviation sector, a detailed analysis of the spatial distribution of supply-demand sites is essential. The objective of this research work is to assess the demand for hydrogen-based alternative fuels in the German aviation sector to achieve the perceived goal of the ‘Net Zero’ scenario by 2050. Here, the analysis of the technological pathways for the production and utilisation of these fuels in various aircraft options is conducted for reaching mitigation targets. Our method is based on data-driven bottom-up assessment, considering production and demand sites and their spatial distribution. The resulting energy demand and its spatial distribution with consideration of technology diffusion lead to a possible transition pathway of the aviation sector to meet short-term and long-term mitigation targets. Additionally, to achieve mitigation targets in this sector, costs and policy aspects are discussed, which would support decision-makers from airline industries, policymakers and the producers of energy commodities.

Keywords: the aviation sector, hard-to-abate sectors, hydrogen demand, alternative fuels, technological pathways, data-driven approach

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Authors: H. Troudi, M. Ghiss, Z. Tourki, M. Ellejmi

Abstract:

Packed columns of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consists of separating the liquid mixture of propane and butane to pure gas components by the distillation phenomenon. The flow of the gas and liquid inside the columns is operated by two ways: The co-current and the counter current operation. Heat, mass and species transfer between phases represent the most important factors that influence the choice between those two operations. In this paper, both processes are discussed using computational CFD simulation through ANSYS-Fluent software. Only 3D half section of the packed column was considered with one packed bed. The packed bed was characterized in our case as a porous media. The simulations were carried out at transient state conditions. A multi-component gas and liquid mixture were used out in the two processes. We utilized the Euler-Lagrange approach in which the gas was treated as a continuum phase and the liquid as a group of dispersed particles. The heat and the mass transfer process was modeled using multi-component droplet evaporation approach. The results show that the counter-current process performs better than the co-current, although such limitations of our approach are noted. This comparison gives accurate results for computations times higher than 2 s, at different gas velocity and at packed bed porosity of 0.9.

Keywords: co-current, counter-current, Euler-Lagrange model, heat transfer, mass transfer

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Authors: Umut Tac, Leyla Tavacioglu, Pelin Bolat

Abstract:

Human factor has been one of the elements that cause vulnerabilities which can be resulted with accidents in maritime transportation. When the roots of human factor based accidents are analyzed, gaps in performing cognitive abilities (reaction time, attention, memory…) are faced as the main reasons for the vulnerabilities in complex environment of maritime systems. Thus cognitive processes in maritime systems have arisen important subject that should be investigated comprehensively. At this point, neurocognitive tests such as reaction time analysis tests have been used as coherent tools that enable us to make valid assessments for cognitive status. In this respect, the aim of this study is to evaluate the reaction time (response time or latency) of seafarers due to their occupational experience and age. For this study, reaction time for different maneuverers has been taken while the participants were performing a sea voyage through a simulator which was run up with a certain scenario. After collecting the data for reaction time, a statistical analyze has been done to understand the relation between occupational experience and cognitive abilities.

Keywords: cognitive abilities, human factor, neurocognitive test battery, reaction time

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Jinghua Zhang

Abstract:

Shaft-tunnel junction is a typical case of the structural nonuniformity in underground structures. The shaft and the tunnel possess greatly different structural features. Even under uniform excitations, they tend to behave discrepantly. Studies on shaft-tunnel junctions are mainly performed numerically. Shaking table tests are also conducted. Although many numerical and experimental data are obtained, an analytical solution still has great merits of gaining more insights into the shaft-tunnel problem. This paper will try to remedy the situation. Since the seismic responses of shaft-tunnel junctions are very related to directions of the excitations, they are studied in two scenarios: the longitudinal-excitation scenario and the transverse-excitation scenario. The former scenario will be addressed in this paper. Given that responses of the tunnel are highly dependent on the shaft, the analytical solutions would be developed firstly for the vertical shaft. Then, the seismic responses of the tunnel would be discussed. Since vertical shafts bear a resemblance to rigid caissons, the solution proposed in this paper is derived by introducing terms of shaft-tunnel and soil-tunnel interactions into equations originally developed for rigid caissons. The validity of the solution is examined by a validation model computed by finite element method. The mutual influence between the shaft and the tunnel is introduced. The soil-structure interactions are discussed parametrically based on the proposed equations. The shaft-tunnel relative displacement and the soil-tunnel relative stiffness are found to be the most important parameters affecting the magnitudes and distributions of the internal forces of the tunnel. A hinge-joint at the shaft-tunnel junction could significantly reduce the degree of stress concentration compared with a rigid joint.

Keywords: analytical solution, longitudinal excitation, numerical validation , shaft-tunnel junction

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: James Moir

Abstract:

Recent evidence suggests that academic staff face difficulties in applying new technologies as a means of assessing higher order assessment outcomes such as critical thinking, problem solving and creativity. Although higher education institutional mission statements and course unit outlines purport the value of these higher order skills there is still some question about how well academics are equipped to design curricula and, in particular, assessment strategies accordingly. Despite a rhetoric avowing the benefits of these higher order skills, it has been suggested that academics set assessment tasks up in such a way as to inadvertently lead students on the path towards lower order outcomes. This is a controversial claim, and one that this papers seeks to explore and critique in terms of challenging the conceptual basis of assessing higher order skills through new technologies. It is argued that the use of digital media in higher education is leading to a focus on students’ ability to use and manipulate of these products as an index of their flexibility and adaptability to the demands of the knowledge economy. This focus mirrors market flexibility and encourages programmes and courses of study to be rhetorically packaged as such. Curricular content has become a means to procure more or less elaborate aggregates of attributes. Higher education is now charged with producing graduates who are entrepreneurial and creative in order to drive forward economic sustainability. It is argued that critical independent learning can take place through the democratisation afforded by cultural and knowledge digitization and that assessment needs to acknowledge the changing relations between audience and author, expert and amateur, creator and consumer.

Keywords: higher education, curriculum, new technologies, assessment, higher order skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 359