Search results for: choice models

Authors: Mohamad Kassab, Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni, Frederic Barbaresco, Raed Abu Zitar

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Detecting objects such as drones is a challenging task as their relative size and maneuvering capabilities deceive machine learning models and cause them to misclassify drones as birds or other objects. In this work, we investigate applying several deep learning techniques to benchmark real data sets of flying drones. A deep learning paradigm is proposed for the purpose of mitigating the complexity of those systems. The proposed paradigm consists of a hybrid between the AdderNet deep learning paradigm and the Single Shot Detector (SSD) paradigm. The goal was to minimize multiplication operations numbers in the filtering layers within the proposed system and, hence, reduce complexity. Some standard machine learning technique, such as SVM, is also tested and compared to other deep learning systems. The data sets used for training and testing were either complete or filtered in order to remove the images with mall objects. The types of data were RGB or IR data. Comparisons were made between all these types, and conclusions were presented.

Keywords: drones detection, deep learning, birds versus drones, precision of detection, AdderNet

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Continuous monitoring of industrial plants is one of necessary tasks when it comes to ensuring high-quality final products. In terms of monitoring and diagnosis, it is quite critical and important to detect some incipient abnormal events of manufacturing processes in order to improve safety and reliability of operations involved and to reduce related losses. In this work a new multivariate statistical online diagnostic method is presented using a case study. For building some reference models an empirical discriminant model is constructed based on various past operation runs. When a fault is detected on-line, an on-line diagnostic module is initiated. Finally, the status of the current operating conditions is compared with the reference model to make a diagnostic decision. The performance of the presented framework is evaluated using a dataset from complex industrial processes. It has been shown that the proposed diagnostic method outperforms other techniques especially in terms of incipient detection of any faults occurred.

Keywords: data mining, empirical model, on-line diagnostics, process fault, process monitoring

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Authors: Brian Ceh, Alison Jackson-Holland

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Food deserts are a reality in some cities. These deserts can be described as a shortage of healthy food options within close proximity of consumers. The shortage in this case is typically facilitated by a lack of stores in an urban area that provide adequate fruit and vegetable choices. This study explores new avenues to better understand food deserts by examining modes of transportation that are available to shoppers or consumers, e.g. walking, automobile, or public transit. Further, this study is unique in that it not only explores the location of large grocery stores, but small grocery and convenience stores too. In this study, the relationship between some socio-economic indicators, such as personal income, are also explored to determine any possible association with food deserts. In addition, to help facilitate our understanding of food deserts, complex network spatial models that are built on adequate algorithms are used to investigate the possibility of food deserts in the city of Hamilton, Canada. It is found that Hamilton, Canada is adequate serviced by retailers who provide healthy food choices and that the food desert phenomena is almost absent.

Keywords: Canada, desert, food, Hamilton, store

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Kateriina Rannula, Elle Sõrmus, Siret Piirsalu

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Mixed generation classroom is a phenomenon that current higher education establishments are faced with daily trying to meet the needs of modern labor market with its emphasis on lifelong learning and retraining. Representatives of mainly X and Y generations in one classroom acquiring higher education is a challenge to lecturers considering all the characteristics that differ one generation from another. The importance of outlining different strategies and considering the needs of the students lies in the necessity for everyone to acquire the maximum of the provided knowledge as well as to understand each other to study together in one classroom and successfully cooperate in future workplaces. In addition to different generations, there are also learners with different native languages which have an impact on reading and understanding texts in third languages, including possible translation. Current research aims to investigate, describe and compare reading strategies among the representatives of generation X and Y. Hypotheses were formulated - representatives of generation X and Y use different reading strategies which is also different among first and third year students of the before mentioned generations. Current study is an empirical, qualitative study. To achieve the aim of the research, relevant literature was analyzed and a semi-structured questionnaire conducted among the first and third year students of Tallinn Health Care College. Questionnaire consisted of 25 statements on the text reading strategies, 3 multiple choice questions on preferences considering the design and medium of the text, and three open questions on the translation process when working with a text in student’s third language. The results of the questionnaire were categorized, analyzed and compared. Both, generation X and Y described their reading strategies to be 'scanning' and 'surfing'. Compared to generation X, first year generation Y learners valued interactivity and nonlinear texts. Students frequently used strategies of skimming, scanning, translating and highlighting together with relevant-thinking and assistance-seeking. Meanwhile, the third-year generation Y students no longer frequently used translating, resourcing and highlighting while Generation X learners still incorporated these strategies. Knowing about different needs of the generations currently inside the classrooms and on the labor market enables us with tools to provide sustainable education and grants the society a work force that is more flexible and able to move between professions. Future research should be conducted in order to investigate the amount of learning and strategy- adoption between generations. As for reading, main suggestions arising from the research are as follows: make a variety of materials available to students; allow them to select what they want to read and try to make those materials visually attractive, relevant, and appropriately challenging for learners considering the differences of generations.

Keywords: generation X, generation Y, learning strategies, reading strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Victoria Wolf, Renata Dobrucka, Robert Prezkop, Stephan Haubold

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The COVID-19 causes a worldwide crisis and has an impact in every dimension of the economy. Organizations with the ability to adapt to new developments and which innovate solutions for the disrupted world during and after the Corona crises have the opportunity to not only survive the crisis but rather to use new trends to implement new business models and gain advantage. In this context, startups seem to have better opportunities to manage the Corona crisis through their innovation-based nature. The main result of this paper is the understanding that by applying a startup orientated innovation (SOCI) strategy, established companies can be motivated to meet the challenge of COVID-19 in a similar way like startups. This result can be achieved by describing the role of innovation and a SOCI strategy as helpful methods for organizations to meet the coming challenges during and after the COVID-19 epidemics. In addition to this, this paper presents a practical application of SOCI through the PANDA approach of the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in Germany and discuss it in the context of COVID-19 as an exemplary successful real-world implementation of SOCI strategy.

Keywords: Covid-19, innovation, open innovation, startup, soci framework

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Authors: Olumuyiwa Ayoola Kokapi, Olugbenga Solomon Bello

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Dyes are organic compounds with complex aromatic molecular structure that resulted in fast colour on a substance. Dye effluent found in wastewater generated from the dyeing industries is one of the greatest contributors to water pollution. Groundnut hull (GH) is an agricultural material that constitutes waste in the environment. Environmental contamination by hazardous organic chemicals is an urgent problem, which is partially solved through adsorption technologies. The choice of groundnut hull was promised on the understanding that some materials of agricultural origin have shown potentials to act as Adsorbate for hazardous organic chemicals. The aim of this research is to evaluate the potential of groundnut hull to adsorb Crystal violet dye through kinetic, isotherm and thermodynamic studies. The prepared groundnut hulls was characterized using Brunauer, Emmett and Teller (BET), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Operational parameters such as contact time, initial dye concentration, pH, and effect of temperature were studied. Equilibrium time for the adsorption process was attained in 80 minutes. Adsorption isotherms used to test the adsorption data were Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms model. Thermodynamic parameters such as ∆G°, ∆H°, and ∆S° of the adsorption processes were determined. The results showed that the uptake of dye by groundnut hulls occurred at a faster rate, corresponding to an increase in adsorption capacity at equilibrium time of 80 min from 0.78 to 4.45 mg/g and 0.77 to 4.45mg/g with an increase in the initial dye concentration from 10 to 50 mg/L for pH 3.0 and 8.0 respectively. High regression values obtained for pseudo-second-order kinetic model, sum of square error (SSE%) values along with strong agreement between experimental and calculated values of qe proved that pseudo second-order kinetic model fitted more than pseudo first-order kinetic model. The result of Langmuir and Freundlich model showed that the adsorption data fit the Langmuir model more than the Freundlich model. Thermodynamic study demonstrated the feasibility, spontaneous and endothermic nature of the adsorption process due to negative values of free energy change (∆G) at all temperatures and positive value of enthalpy change (∆H) respectively. The positive values of ∆S showed that there was increased disorderliness and randomness at the solid/solution interface of crystal violet dye and groundnut hulls. The present investigation showed that, groundnut hulls (GH) is a good low-cost alternative adsorbent for the removal of Crystal Violet (CV) dye from aqueous solution.

Keywords: adsorption, crystal violet dye, groundnut halls, kinetics

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Authors: Thomas Elliot, Javier Babi Almenar, Benedetto Rugani

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The integration of urban metabolism (UM) with spatially explicit ecosystem service (ES) stocks has the potential to advance sustainable urban development. It will correct the lack of spatially specificity of current urban metabolism models. Furthermore, it will include into UM not only the physical properties of material and energy stocks and flows, but also the implications to the natural capital that provides and maintains human well-being. This paper presents the first stages of a modelling framework by which urban planners can assess spatially the trade-offs of ES flows resulting from urban interventions of different character and scale. This framework allows for a multi-region assessment which takes into account sustainability burdens consequent to an urban planning event occurring elsewhere in the environment. The urban boundary is defined as the Functional Urban Audit (FUA) method to account for trans-administrative ES flows. ES are mapped using CORINE land use within the FUA. These stocks and flows are incorporated into a UM assessment method to demonstrate the transfer and flux of ES arising from different urban planning implementations.

Keywords: ecological economics, ecosystem services, spatial planning, urban metabolism

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Authors: Michael Lousis

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This research study is concerned with learner’s errors on Arithmetic and Algebra. The data resulted from a broader international comparative research program called Kassel Project. However, its conceptualisation differed from and contrasted with that of the main program, which was mostly based on socio-demographic data. The way in which the research study was conducted, was not dependent on the researcher’s discretion, but was absolutely dictated by the nature of the problem under investigation. This is because the phenomenon of learners’ mathematical errors is due neither to the intentions of learners nor to institutional processes, rules and norms, nor to the educators’ intentions and goals; but rather to the way certain information is presented to learners and how their cognitive apparatus processes this information. Several approaches for the study of learners’ errors have been developed from the beginning of the 20th century, encompassing different belief systems. These approaches were based on the behaviourist theory, on the Piagetian- constructivist research framework, the perspective that followed the philosophy of science and the information-processing paradigm. The researcher of the present study was forced to disclose the learners’ course of thinking that led them in specific observable actions with the result of showing particular errors in specific problems, rather than analysing scripts with the students’ thoughts presented in a written form. This, in turn, entailed that the choice of methods would have to be appropriate and conducive to seeing and realising the learners’ errors from the perspective of the participants in the investigation. This particular fact determined important decisions to be made concerning the selection of an appropriate framework for analysing the mathematical errors and giving explanations. Thus the rejection of the belief systems concerning behaviourism, the Piagetian-constructivist, and philosophy of science perspectives took place, and the information-processing paradigm in conjunction with the philosophy of mind were adopted as a general account for the elaboration of data. This paper explains why these decisions were appropriate and beneficial for conducting the present study and for the establishment of the ensued thesis. Additionally, the reasons for the adoption of the information-processing paradigm in conjunction with the philosophy of mind give sound and legitimate bases for the development of future studies concerning mathematical error analysis are explained.

Keywords: advantages-disadvantages of theoretical prospects, behavioral prospect, critical evaluation of theoretical prospects, error analysis, information-processing paradigm, opting for the appropriate approach, philosophy of science prospect, Piagetian-constructivist research frameworks, review of research in mathematical errors

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Authors: Tariq Aziz, Suresh Kumar, Vikesh Kumar, Sheraz Mustafa, Jhanzeb Marwat

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The paper provides an updated version of volatility spillover among the equity markets of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Srilanka, and Bangladesh. The analysis uses both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models to investigate volatility persistence and leverage effect. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission between two equity markets. Weekly data for the period February 2013 to August 2019 is used for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the leverage effect exists in the equity markets of all the countries except Bangladesh. The volatility spillover from the equity market of Bangladesh to all other countries is negative and significant whereas the volatility of the equity market of Sri-Lanka does influence the volatility of any other country’s equity market. Indian equity market influence only the volatility of the Sri-Lankan equity market; and there is bidirectional volatility spillover between the equity markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The findings are important for policy-makers and international investors.

Keywords: volatility spillover, volatility persistence, garch, egarch

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Authors: Akshat Kumar, Vidushi

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This paper identifies 27 KOIs, 26 of which are currently classified as candidates and one as false positives that have a high probability of being confirmed. For this purpose, 11 machine learning algorithms were implemented on the cumulative kepler dataset sourced from the NASA exoplanet archive; it was observed that the best-performing model was HistGradientBoosting and XGBoost with a test accuracy of 93.5%, and the lowest-performing model was Gaussian NB with a test accuracy of 54%, to test model performance F1, cross-validation score and RUC curve was calculated. Based on the learned models, the significant characteristics for confirm exoplanets were identified, putting emphasis on the object’s transit and stellar properties; these characteristics were namely koi_count, koi_prad, koi_period, koi_dor, koi_ror, and koi_smass, which were later considered to filter out the potential KOIs. The paper also calculates the Earth similarity index based on the planetary radius and equilibrium temperature for each KOI identified to aid in their classification.

Keywords: Kepler objects of interest, exoplanets, space exploration, machine learning, earth similarity index, transit photometry

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Authors: H. A. Mansour

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The objective of this research work is studying the water use prediction, prediction technology for water use by action agencies, and others involved in conservation, planning, and environmental assessment of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) simulation model. Models the important physical, processes governing erosion in Egypt (climate, infiltration, runoff, ET, detachment by raindrops, detachment by flowing water, deposition, etc.). Simulation of the non-uniform slope, soils, cropping/management., and Egyptian databases for climate, soils, and crops. The study included important parameters in Egyptian conditions as follows: Water Balance & Percolation, Soil Component (Tillage impacts), Plant Growth & Residue Decomposition, Overland Flow Hydraulics. It could be concluded that we can adapt the WEPP simulation model to determining the previous important parameters under Egyptian conditions.

Keywords: WEPP, adaptation, soil properties, tillage impacts, water balance, soil percolation

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

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Authors: Temitayo Abayomi Ewemoje, Oluwamayowa Oluwafemi Oluwaniyi

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Agriculture and food processing, industry are among the largest industrial sectors that uses large amount of energy. Thus, a larger amount of gases from their fuel combustion technologies is being released into the environment. The choice of input energy supply not only directly having affects the environment, but also poses a threat to human health. The study was therefore designed to assess each unit production processes in order to identify hotspots using life cycle assessments (LCA) approach in South-western Nigeria. Data such as machine power rating, operation duration, inputs and outputs of shea butter materials for unit processes obtained at site were used to modelled Life Cycle Impact Analysis on GaBi6 (Holistic Balancing) software. Four scenarios were drawn for the impact assessments. Material sourcing from Kaiama, Scenarios 1, 3 and Minna Scenarios 2, 4 but different heat supply sources (Liquefied Petroleum Gas ‘LPG’ Scenarios 1, 2 and 10.8 kW Diesel Heater, scenarios 3, 4). Modelling of shea butter production on GaBi6 was for 1kg functional unit of shea butter produced and the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) midpoint assessment was tool used to was analyse the life cycle inventories of the four scenarios. Eight categories in all four Scenarios were observed out of which three impact categories; Global Warming Potential (GWP) (0.613, 0.751, 0.661, 0.799) kg CO2¬-Equiv., Acidification Potential (AP) (0.112, 0.132, 0.129, 0.149) kg H+ moles-Equiv., and Smog (0.044, 0.059, 0.049, 0.063) kg O3-Equiv., categories had the greater impacts on the environment in Scenarios 1-4 respectively. Impacts from transportation activities was also seen to contribute more to these environmental impact categories due to large volume of petrol combusted leading to releases of gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, and NOx into the environment during the transportation of raw shea kernel purchased. The ratio of transportation distance from Minna and Kaiama to production site was approximately 3.5. Shea butter unit processes with greater impacts in all categories was the packaging, milling and with the churning processes in ascending order of magnitude was identified as hotspots that may require attention. From the 1kg shea butter functional unit, it was inferred that locating production site at the shortest travelling distance to raw material sourcing and combustion of LPG for heating would reduce all the impact categories assessed on the environment.

Keywords: GaBi6, Life cycle assessment, shea butter production, TRACI

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Authors: Myeong Hee Jeong, Man Young Kim

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The use of perforated plate and tubes is common in applications such as vehicle exhaust silencers, attenuators in air moving ducts and duct linings in jet engines. Also, perforated plate flow conditioners designed to improve flow distribution upstream of an orifice plate flow meter typically have 50–60% free area but these generally employ a non-uniform distribution of holes of several sizes to encourage the formation of a fully developed pipe flow velocity distribution. In this study, therefore, numerical investigations on the flow characteristics with the various perforated plates have been performed and then compared to the case without a perforated plate. Three different models are adopted such as a flat perforated plate, a convex perforated plate in the direction of the inlet, and a convex perforated plate in the direction of the outlet. Simulation results show that the pressure drop with and without perforated plates are similar each other. However, it can be found that that the different shaped perforated plates influence the velocity contour, flow uniformity index, and location of the fully developed fluid flow. These results can be used as a practical guide to the best design of pipe with the perforated plate.

Keywords: perforated plate, flow uniformity, pipe turbulent flow, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

Procedia PDF Downloads 691

Authors: Khenfer Koummich Fatma, Hendel Fatiha, Mesbahi Larbi

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This paper presents an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM: Hidden Markov Model) using HTK tools. The goal is to create a human-machine interface with a voice recognition system that allows the operator to teleoperate a mentor robot to execute specific tasks as rotate, raise, close, etc. This system should take into account different levels of environmental noise. This approach has been applied to isolated words representing the robot commands pronounced in two languages: French and Arabic. The obtained recognition rate is the same in both speeches, Arabic and French in the neutral words. However, there is a slight difference in favor of the Arabic speech when Gaussian white noise is added with a Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) equals 30 dB, in this case; the Arabic speech recognition rate is 69%, and the French speech recognition rate is 80%. This can be explained by the ability of phonetic context of each speech when the noise is added.

Keywords: Arabic speech recognition, Hidden Markov Model (HMM), HTK, noise, TIMIT, voice command

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Authors: Valentine Seymour

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Environmental volunteering organisations use questionnaires to explore the relationship between environmental volunteers and their health. To the author’s best knowledge, no one has explored volunteers’ health perception, which could be considered when designing a health impact measurement tool used to increase effective communication. This paper examines environmental volunteers' perceptions of health, knowledge which can be used to design a health impact measurement tool. This study uses focus group interviews, content analysis, and a general inductive approach to explore the health perceptions of volunteers who engage in environmental volunteering activities from the perspective of UK charity The Conservation Volunteers. Findings showed that volunteer groups presented were relatively similar in how they defined the term health, with their overall conceptual model closely resembling that of the World Health Organization 1948 definition. This suggests that future health impact measurement tools in the environmental volunteering sector could base their design around the World Health Organization’s definition.

Keywords: health perception, impact measurement, mental models, tool development

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Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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Authors: Michaela Chovancova, Jakub Elcner

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Real bronchial tree is very complicated piping system. Analysis of flow and pressure losses in this system is very difficult. Due to the complex geometry and the very small size in the lower generations is examination by CFD possible only in the central part of bronchial tree. For specify the pressure losses of lower generations is necessary to provide a mathematical equation. Determination of mathematical formulas for calculating the pressure losses in the real lungs is due to its complexity and diversity lengthy and inefficient process. For these calculations is necessary the lungs to slightly simplify (same cross-section over the length of individual generation) or use one of the models of lungs. The simplification could cause deviations from real values. The article compares the values of pressure losses obtained from CFD simulation of air flow in the central part of the real bronchial tree with the values calculated in a slightly simplified real lungs by using a mathematical relationship derived from the Bernoulli equation and continuity equation. Then, evaluate the desirability of using this formula to determine the pressure loss across the bronchial tree.

Keywords: pressure gradient, airways resistance, real geometry of bronchial tree, breathing

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Authors: Kieren Wilson, Gulnaz Majeed

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NHS constitution gives rights to the patient with suspected cancer to be seen by a cancer specialist within 2 weeks of referral. Guys and St Thomas Hospital (GSTT) is one of the largest cancer centres in London. NICE guidelines have provided guidance for health professionals to refer patients appropriately to RAC. In GSTT suspected gynae cancer referrals are mostly by NHS e-Referral Service with some fax, emails as well as paper referrals. The objective of this study was to evaluate compliance with 2-week referral pathway with emphasis on one stop diagnostic service with supporting efficient pathways. A prospective evaluation over 3 months (1 Jan 2017 to 31 Mar 2017) was undertaken. There were 26 clinics, 761 patients were booked in the clinics with a DNA rate of 13% (n=101) hence 606 patients were seen. Majority of referrals were for post menopausal bleeding (PMB) 25% (n=194) followed by cervical, vaginal, vulval reasons 23% (n=179) (abnormal cytology excluded as patients directly referred to colposcopy unit in GSTT), ovarian 7% (n=54) and endometrial 5% (n=41). Women with new or previous established diagnosis of cancer were 24, cervical (n=17), vulva (n=6) and vagina (n=1). Multifocal preinvasive disease vulva (VIN), vagina (VAIN) and cervix (CIN) was confirmed in twenty-six patients 4% (high prevalence in HIV patients). Majority of cervical referrals: PCB (n=14), cervical erosion (n=7), polyps (n=9) and cervical cyst were benign. However, two women with PMB had cervical cancer. Only 2 out of 13 referrals with vaginal concerns had VAIN. One case with non-cervical glandular cytology was confirmed to have endometrial cancer. One stop service based on the diagnostic support of ultrasound, colposcopy and hysteroscopy was achieved in 54% (n=359). Patients were discharged to GP, benign gynaecology, endometriosis, combined vulval/dermatology clinic or gynae oncology. 33% (n=202) required a second visit, 12% (n=70) third visit, 3% (n=19) fourth visit, 1% (n=4) fifth visit and 1% (n=6) sixth visit. Main reasons for follow ups were the unavailability of diagnostic slots, patient choice, need for interpreters, the discussion following gynae MDM review for triage to benign gynae, delay in availability of diagnostic results like histology/MRI/CT. Recommendations following this study are multi disciplinary review of pathways with the availability of additional diagnostic procedure slots to aim for one stop service. Furthermore, establishment of virtual and telephone consultations to reduce follow ups.

Keywords: multifocal disease, post menopausal bleeding, preinvasive disease, rapid access clinic

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Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

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Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

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Authors: Navonil Hazra

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The paper discusses how and why aphasia can be understood as the language of nonverbal communication in musical performance and also looks for the elements that are required to classify it as a nonverbal language. Since music is regarded as a nonverbal medium that cannot be engaged in any language, it is concerned about how aphasia might be called the language of nonverbalization. The paper also talks about how it portrays the magnificence of a performance, and how it expresses its likings or dislikes. Regarding the reasons for aphasia, the paper talks about the seizure factor and elucidates on seizure subjects as well. Furthermore, it discusses collective seizures and individual seizures. It also tries to consider aphasia as a-posteriori rather than a-priori looking at it from the lens of ‘Pure Reason’. Along with aphasia, the paper tries to make a critique of silence and the possibilities of looking at silence differently, also looking at the ontology of silence and sound. This paper also critically examines silence and the significance of gestures in performance. It also investigates whether gestures are accompanied by silence, establishing the notion of agential silence. This paper also talks about the place and role of memory in the formulation and analysis of a performance, as well as the plaguing and reclamation of memory, how memory alters the linear course of time and taunts us to look for alternative models of temporalities. This paper discusses the concept of 'auditory labour', with active and passive listening.

Keywords: aphasia, gestures, memory, silence

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Authors: Yaxin Bi

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Accurate prediction and understanding of the evolution mechanisms of earthquakes remain challenging in the fields of geology, geophysics, and seismology. This study leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), a generative model tailored to time-series data, for generating synthetic time series data based on Swarm satellite data, which will be used for detecting seismic anomalies. LSTMs demonstrated commendable predictive performance in generating synthetic data across multiple countries. In contrast, the GAN models struggled to generate synthetic data, often producing non-informative values, although they were able to capture the data distribution of the time series. These findings highlight both the promise and challenges associated with applying deep learning techniques to generate synthetic data, underscoring the potential of deep learning in generating synthetic electromagnetic satellite data.

Keywords: LSTM, GAN, earthquake, synthetic data, generative AI, seismic precursors

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Authors: Osama A. Omer, Amal Hamed

Abstract:

Successful blind image Super-Resolution algorithms require the exact estimation of the Point Spread Function (PSF). In the absence of any prior information about the imagery system and the true image; this estimation is normally done by trial and error experimentation until an acceptable restored image quality is obtained. Multi-frame blind Super-Resolution algorithms often have disadvantages of slow convergence and sensitiveness to complex noises. This paper presents a Super-Resolution image reconstruction algorithm based on estimation of the PSF that yields the optimum restored image quality. The estimation of PSF is performed by the knife-edge method and it is implemented by measuring spreading of the edges in the reproduced HR image itself during the reconstruction process. The proposed image reconstruction approach is using L1 norm minimization and robust regularization based on a bilateral prior to deal with different data and noise models. A series of experiment results show that the proposed method can outperform other previous work robustly and efficiently.

Keywords: blind, PSF, super-resolution, knife-edge, blurring, bilateral, L1 norm

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Authors: Yi Huang, Clemens Guehmann

Abstract:

In order to monitor the thermal behavior of an asynchronous machine with squirrel cage rotor, a 9th-order extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm is implemented to estimate the temperatures of the stator windings, the rotor cage and the stator core. The state-space equations of EKF are established based on the electrical, mechanical and the simplified thermal models of an asynchronous machine. The asynchronous machine with simplified thermal model in Dymola is compiled as DymolaBlock, a physical model in MATLAB/Simulink. The coolant air temperature, three-phase voltages and currents are exported from the physical model and are processed by EKF estimator as inputs. Compared to the temperatures exported from the physical model of the machine, three parts of temperatures can be estimated quite accurately by the EKF estimator. The online EKF estimator is independent from the machine control algorithm and can work under any speed and load condition if the stator current is nonzero current system.

Keywords: asynchronous machine, extended Kalman filter, resistance, simulation, temperature estimation, thermal model

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Authors: Steven Vusmuzi Mashego, Opeyeolu Timothy Laseinde

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This paper presents a case study on applying maintenance strategies observed in a turbo-generator at a coal power plant. Turbo generators are one of the primary and critical components in energy generation. It is essential to apply correct maintenance strategies and apply operational procedures accordingly. The maintenance strategies are implemented to ensure the high reliability of the equipment. The study was carried out at a coal power station which will transit to a cleaner energy source in the nearest future. The study is relevant as lessons learned in this system will support plans and operational models implemented when cleaner energy sources replace coal-powered turbines. This paper first outlines different maintenance strategies executed on the turbo-generator modules. Secondly, the impacts of human factors on a coal power station are discussed, and the findings prompted recommendations for future actions.

Keywords: maintenance strategies, turbo generator, operational error, human factor, electricity generation

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Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

Abstract:

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.

Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram

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The development of effective decision support tools that adopted in the construction industry is vital in the world we live in today, since it can lead to substantial cost reduction and efficient resource consumption. Solving the time-cost trade off problems and its related variants is at the heart of scientific research for optimizing construction planning problems. In general, the classical optimization techniques have difficulties in dealing with TCT problems. One of the main reasons of their failure is that they can easily be entrapped in local minima. This paper presents an investigation on the application of meta-heuristic techniques to two particular variants of the time-cost trade of analysis, the time-cost trade off problem (TCT), and time-cost trade off optimization problem (TCO). In first problem, the total project cost should be minimized, and in the second problem, the total project cost and total project duration should be minimized simultaneously. Finally it is expected that, the optimization models developed in this paper will contribute significantly for efficient planning and management of construction project.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, optimization, time cost trade off problems

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Authors: Bernard Ewuoso

Abstract:

Introduction: Induction of labor (IOL) usually involves the patient moving between antenatal, labor, and postnatal wards. Delay in IOL has been defined as delay in the time it takes a woman to wait for induction after her cervix is assessed to be favorable. Opinions vary on the acceptable time the patient is allowed to wait for once the cervix is adjudged ripe for induction. What has been considered a benchmark is a delay of up to 12 hours. There is evidence that delay in IOL is associated with adverse outcomes. Aim: To determine the number of women experiencing delay in induction of labor and their outcomes. Method: This audit was retrospective and observational. It included women who had induction of labor in the month of October 2023 in two hospitals. Clinical data was collected from electronic medical records into an Excel sheet for analysis. Women had cervical ripening as inpatient or outpatient. The primary objective was to determine the number of women experiencing delay in induction of labor, while the secondary objective was to outcome these women. Result: 136 women had IOL. The least percentage of data retrieved for any parameter was 80%. The mean gestational age at IOL was 278.26 days. The mean waiting time was 905.34mins. Seventy-five women had their IOL at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh (RIE), fifty-seven at St. John’s Hospital (SJH), and three women were transferred from RIE to SJH. The preferred method of cervical ripening was balloon closely followed by prostaglandin. Twenty-seven women did not require cervical ripening and had their process started with amniotomy. Prostaglandin was the method of choice of cervical ripening at RIE, while balloon was preferred in SJH. Of the thirty-five women found to be suitable for outpatient cervical ripening, thirteen had outpatient ripening. There was a significant increase in the number of women undergoing outpatient cervical ripening at RIE from 10.5% in April 2022 to 42.9%. The preferred method for outpatient cervical ripening at the RIE was balloon, while it was prostaglandin for SJH. These were contradictory to the preferred method of inpatient cervical ripening at both centers. The average waiting time for IOL at RIE, 1166.92mins, is more than double that of SJH, 442.93mins, and far exceed 12hours, which is the proposed benchmark. The waiting time tends to be shorter with prostaglandin. Out of the women that had outpatient cervical ripening 63.6% had to wait for more than 12hrs before being induced while it was 36.1% for women that had inpatient cervical ripening. Overall, 38.5% women waited for more than 12 hours before having their induction. A lesser proportion of the women who waited for more than 12 hours had caesarean section, assisted vaginal delivery, and postpartum hemorrhage, whereas a greater proportion had spontaneous vaginal delivery and intrapartum or postpartum infection. Conclusion: A significant number of the women included in the study experienced delay in their induction process, and this was associated with an increased occurrence of intrapartum or postpartum infection. Outpatient cervical ripening contributed to delay.

Keywords: delay in induction of labor, inpatient, outpatient, intrapartum, postpartum, infection

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Authors: Benamar Makhoukhi

Abstract:

Clay ion-exchange using bismidazolium salts (MBIM) could provide organophilic clays materials that allow effective retention of polluting dyes. The present investigations deal with bentonite (Bt) modification using (ortho, meta and para) bisimidazolium cations and attempts to remove a synthetic textile dyes, such as (Telon-Orange, Telon-Red and Telon-Blue) by adsorption, from aqueous solutions. The surface modification of MBIM–Bt was examined using infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Adsorption tests applied to Telon dyes revealed a significant increase of the maximum adsorption capacity from ca. 21-28 to 88-108 mg.g-1 after intercalation. The highest adsorption level was noticed for Telon-Orange dye on the p-MBIM–Bt, presumably due higher interlayer space and better diffusion. The pseudo-first order rate equation was able to provide the best description of adsorption kinetics data for all three dyestuffs. The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption models were applied to describe the equilibrium isotherms and the isotherm constants were also determined. The results show that MBIM–Bt could be employed as low-cost material for the removal of Telon dyes from effluents.

Keywords: Bentonite, Organoclay, Bisimidazolium, Dyes, Isotherms, Adsorption

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Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

Abstract:

This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

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