Search results for: neural networking algorithm
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 5321

Search results for: neural networking algorithm

431 Rating Agreement: Machine Learning for Environmental, Social, and Governance Disclosure

Authors: Nico Rosamilia

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The study evaluates the importance of non-financial disclosure practices for regulators, investors, businesses, and markets. It aims to create a sector-specific set of indicators for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performances alternative to the ratings of the agencies. The existing literature extensively studies the implementation of ESG rating systems. Conversely, this study has a twofold outcome. Firstly, it should generalize incentive systems and governance policies for ESG and sustainable principles. Therefore, it should contribute to the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation. Secondly, it concerns the market and the investors by highlighting successful sustainable investing. Indeed, the study contemplates the effect of ESG adoption practices on corporate value. The research explores the asset pricing angle in order to shed light on the fragmented argument on the finance of ESG. Investors may be misguided about the positive or negative effects of ESG on performances. The paper proposes a different method to evaluate ESG performances. By comparing the results of a traditional econometric approach (Lasso) with a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest), the study establishes a set of indicators for ESG performance. Therefore, the research also empirically contributes to the theoretical strands of literature regarding model selection and variable importance in a finance framework. The algorithms will spit out sector-specific indicators. This set of indicators defines an alternative to the compounded scores of ESG rating agencies and avoids the possible offsetting effect of scores. With this approach, the paper defines a sector-specific set of indicators to standardize ESG disclosure. Additionally, it tries to shed light on the absence of a clear understanding of the direction of the ESG effect on corporate value (the problem of endogeneity).

Keywords: ESG ratings, non-financial information, value of firms, sustainable finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
430 Using Time Series NDVI to Model Land Cover Change: A Case Study in the Berg River Catchment Area, Western Cape, South Africa

Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

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This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

Procedia PDF Downloads 403
429 Expert System: Debugging Using MD5 Process Firewall

Authors: C. U. Om Kumar, S. Kishore, A. Geetha

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An Operating system (OS) is software that manages computer hardware and software resources by providing services to computer programs. One of the important user expectations of the operating system is to provide the practice of defending information from unauthorized access, disclosure, modification, inspection, recording or destruction. Operating system is always vulnerable to the attacks of malwares such as computer virus, worm, Trojan horse, backdoors, ransomware, spyware, adware, scareware and more. And so the anti-virus software were created for ensuring security against the prominent computer viruses by applying a dictionary based approach. The anti-virus programs are not always guaranteed to provide security against the new viruses proliferating every day. To clarify this issue and to secure the computer system, our proposed expert system concentrates on authorizing the processes as wanted and unwanted by the administrator for execution. The Expert system maintains a database which consists of hash code of the processes which are to be allowed. These hash codes are generated using MD5 message-digest algorithm which is a widely used cryptographic hash function. The administrator approves the wanted processes that are to be executed in the client in a Local Area Network by implementing Client-Server architecture and only the processes that match with the processes in the database table will be executed by which many malicious processes are restricted from infecting the operating system. The add-on advantage of this proposed Expert system is that it limits CPU usage and minimizes resource utilization. Thus data and information security is ensured by our system along with increased performance of the operating system.

Keywords: virus, worm, Trojan horse, back doors, Ransomware, Spyware, Adware, Scareware, sticky software, process table, MD5, CPU usage and resource utilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
428 Triangular Hesitant Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach in Investment Projects Management

Authors: Irina Khutsishvili

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The presented study develops a decision support methodology for multi-criteria group decision-making problem. The proposed methodology is based on the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution) approach in the hesitant fuzzy environment. The main idea of decision-making problem is a selection of one best alternative or several ranking alternatives among a set of feasible alternatives. Typically, the process of decision-making is based on an evaluation of certain criteria. In many MCDM problems (such as medical diagnosis, project management, business and financial management, etc.), the process of decision-making involves experts' assessments. These assessments frequently are expressed in fuzzy numbers, confidence intervals, intuitionistic fuzzy values, hesitant fuzzy elements and so on. However, a more realistic approach is using linguistic expert assessments (linguistic variables). In the proposed methodology both the values and weights of the criteria take the form of linguistic variables, given by all decision makers. Then, these assessments are expressed in triangular fuzzy numbers. Consequently, proposed approach is based on triangular hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS decision-making model. Following the TOPSIS algorithm, first, the fuzzy positive ideal solution (FPIS) and the fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS) are defined. Then the ranking of alternatives is performed in accordance with the proximity of their distances to the both FPIS and FNIS. Based on proposed approach the software package has been developed, which was used to rank investment projects in the real investment decision-making problem. The application and testing of the software were carried out based on the data provided by the ‘Bank of Georgia’.

Keywords: fuzzy TOPSIS approach, investment project, linguistic variable, multi-criteria decision making, triangular hesitant fuzzy set

Procedia PDF Downloads 430
427 Electrical Machine Winding Temperature Estimation Using Stateful Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) and Truncated Backpropagation Through Time (TBPTT)

Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
426 The Inherent Flaw in the NBA Playoff Structure

Authors: Larry Turkish

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Introduction: The NBA is an example of mediocrity and this will be evident in the following paper. The study examines and evaluates the characteristics of the NBA champions. As divisions and playoff teams increase, there is an increase in the probability that the champion originates from the mediocre category. Since it’s inception in 1947, the league has been mediocre and continues to this day. Why does a professional league allow any team with a less than 50% winning percentage into the playoffs? As long as the finances flow into the league, owners will not change the current algorithm. The objective of this paper is to determine if the regular season has meaning in finding an NBA champion. Statistical Analysis: The data originates from the NBA website. The following variables are part of the statistical analysis: Rank, the rank of a team relative to other teams in the league based on the regular season win-loss record; Winning Percentage of a team based on the regular season; Divisions, the number of divisions within the league and Playoff Teams, the number of playoff teams relative to a particular season. The following statistical applications are applied to the data: Pearson Product-Moment Correlation, Analysis of Variance, Factor and Regression analysis. Conclusion: The results indicate that the divisional structure and number of playoff teams results in a negative effect on the winning percentage of playoff teams. It also prevents teams with higher winning percentages from accessing the playoffs. Recommendations: 1. Teams that have a winning percentage greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean from the regular season will have access to playoffs. (Eliminates mediocre teams.) 2. Eliminate Divisions (Eliminates weaker teams from access to playoffs.) 3. Eliminate Conferences (Eliminates weaker teams from access to the playoffs.) 4. Have a balanced regular season schedule, (Reduces the number of regular season games, creates equilibrium, reduces bias) that will reduce the need for load management.

Keywords: alignment, mediocrity, regression, z-score

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
425 Quality Analysis of Vegetables Through Image Processing

Authors: Abdul Khalique Baloch, Ali Okatan

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The quality analysis of food and vegetable from image is hot topic now a day, where researchers make them better then pervious findings through different technique and methods. In this research we have review the literature, and find gape from them, and suggest better proposed approach, design the algorithm, developed a software to measure the quality from images, where accuracy of image show better results, and compare the results with Perouse work done so for. The Application we uses an open-source dataset and python language with tensor flow lite framework. In this research we focus to sort food and vegetable from image, in the images, the application can sorts and make them grading after process the images, it could create less errors them human base sorting errors by manual grading. Digital pictures datasets were created. The collected images arranged by classes. The classification accuracy of the system was about 94%. As fruits and vegetables play main role in day-to-day life, the quality of fruits and vegetables is necessary in evaluating agricultural produce, the customer always buy good quality fruits and vegetables. This document is about quality detection of fruit and vegetables using images. Most of customers suffering due to unhealthy foods and vegetables by suppliers, so there is no proper quality measurement level followed by hotel managements. it have developed software to measure the quality of the fruits and vegetables by using images, it will tell you how is your fruits and vegetables are fresh or rotten. Some algorithms reviewed in this thesis including digital images, ResNet, VGG16, CNN and Transfer Learning grading feature extraction. This application used an open source dataset of images and language used python, and designs a framework of system.

Keywords: deep learning, computer vision, image processing, rotten fruit detection, fruits quality criteria, vegetables quality criteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 70
424 New Hardy Type Inequalities of Two-Dimensional on Time Scales via Steklov Operator

Authors: Wedad Albalawi

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The mathematical inequalities have been the core of mathematical study and used in almost all branches of mathematics as well in various areas of science and engineering. The inequalities by Hardy, Littlewood and Polya were the first significant composition of several science. This work presents fundamental ideas, results and techniques, and it has had much influence on research in various branches of analysis. Since 1934, various inequalities have been produced and studied in the literature. Furthermore, some inequalities have been formulated by some operators; in 1989, weighted Hardy inequalities have been obtained for integration operators. Then, they obtained weighted estimates for Steklov operators that were used in the solution of the Cauchy problem for the wave equation. They were improved upon in 2011 to include the boundedness of integral operators from the weighted Sobolev space to the weighted Lebesgue space. Some inequalities have been demonstrated and improved using the Hardy–Steklov operator. Recently, a lot of integral inequalities have been improved by differential operators. Hardy inequality has been one of the tools that is used to consider integrity solutions of differential equations. Then, dynamic inequalities of Hardy and Coposon have been extended and improved by various integral operators. These inequalities would be interesting to apply in different fields of mathematics (functional spaces, partial differential equations, mathematical modeling). Some inequalities have been appeared involving Copson and Hardy inequalities on time scales to obtain new special version of them. A time scale is an arbitrary nonempty closed subset of the real numbers. Then, the dynamic inequalities on time scales have received a lot of attention in the literature and has become a major field in pure and applied mathematics. There are many applications of dynamic equations on time scales to quantum mechanics, electrical engineering, neural networks, heat transfer, combinatorics, and population dynamics. This study focuses on Hardy and Coposon inequalities, using Steklov operator on time scale in double integrals to obtain special cases of time-scale inequalities of Hardy and Copson on high dimensions. The advantage of this study is that it uses the one-dimensional classical Hardy inequality to obtain higher dimensional on time scale versions that will be applied in the solution of the Cauchy problem for the wave equation. In addition, the obtained inequalities have various applications involving discontinuous domains such as bug populations, phytoremediation of metals, wound healing, maximization problems. The proof can be done by introducing restriction on the operator in several cases. The concepts in time scale version such as time scales calculus will be used that allows to unify and extend many problems from the theories of differential and of difference equations. In addition, using chain rule, and some properties of multiple integrals on time scales, some theorems of Fubini and the inequality of H¨older.

Keywords: time scales, inequality of hardy, inequality of coposon, steklov operator

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
423 Development of a Regression Based Model to Predict Subjective Perception of Squeak and Rattle Noise

Authors: Ramkumar R., Gaurav Shinde, Pratik Shroff, Sachin Kumar Jain, Nagesh Walke

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Advancements in electric vehicles have significantly reduced the powertrain noise and moving components of vehicles. As a result, in-cab noises have become more noticeable to passengers inside the car. To ensure a comfortable ride for drivers and other passengers, it has become crucial to eliminate undesirable component noises during the development phase. Standard practices are followed to identify the severity of noises based on subjective ratings, but it can be a tedious process to identify the severity of each development sample and make changes to reduce it. Additionally, the severity rating can vary from jury to jury, making it challenging to arrive at a definitive conclusion. To address this, an automotive component was identified to evaluate squeak and rattle noise issue. Physical tests were carried out for random and sine excitation profiles. Aim was to subjectively assess the noise using jury rating method and objectively evaluate the same by measuring the noise. Suitable jury evaluation method was selected for the said activity, and recorded sounds were replayed for jury rating. Objective data sound quality metrics viz., loudness, sharpness, roughness, fluctuation strength and overall Sound Pressure Level (SPL) were measured. Based on this, correlation co-efficients was established to identify the most relevant sound quality metrics that are contributing to particular identified noise issue. Regression analysis was then performed to establish the correlation between subjective and objective data. Mathematical model was prepared using artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithm. The developed model was able to predict the subjective rating with good accuracy.

Keywords: BSR, noise, correlation, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
422 Direct Approach in Modeling Particle Breakage Using Discrete Element Method

Authors: Ebrahim Ghasemi Ardi, Ai Bing Yu, Run Yu Yang

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Current study is aimed to develop an available in-house discrete element method (DEM) code and link it with direct breakage event. So, it became possible to determine the particle breakage and then its fragments size distribution, simultaneous with DEM simulation. It directly applies the particle breakage inside the DEM computation algorithm and if any breakage happens the original particle is replaced with daughters. In this way, the calculation will be followed based on a new updated particles list which is very similar to the real grinding environment. To validate developed model, a grinding ball impacting an unconfined particle bed was simulated. Since considering an entire ball mill would be too computationally demanding, this method provided a simplified environment to test the model. Accordingly, a representative volume of the ball mill was simulated inside a box, which could emulate media (ball)–powder bed impacts in a ball mill and during particle bed impact tests. Mono, binary and ternary particle beds were simulated to determine the effects of granular composition on breakage kinetics. The results obtained from the DEM simulations showed a reduction in the specific breakage rate for coarse particles in binary mixtures. The origin of this phenomenon, commonly known as cushioning or decelerated breakage in dry milling processes, was explained by the DEM simulations. Fine particles in a particle bed increase mechanical energy loss, and reduce and distribute interparticle forces thereby inhibiting the breakage of the coarse component. On the other hand, the specific breakage rate of fine particles increased due to contacts associated with coarse particles. Such phenomenon, known as acceleration, was shown to be less significant, but should be considered in future attempts to accurately quantify non-linear breakage kinetics in the modeling of dry milling processes.

Keywords: particle bed, breakage models, breakage kinetic, discrete element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
421 Land Use Dynamics of Ikere Forest Reserve, Nigeria Using Geographic Information System

Authors: Akintunde Alo

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The incessant encroachments into the forest ecosystem by the farmers and local contractors constitute a major threat to the conservation of genetic resources and biodiversity in Nigeria. To propose a viable monitoring system, this study employed Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to assess the changes that occurred for a period of five years (between 2011 and 2016) in Ikere forest reserve. Landsat imagery of the forest reserve was obtained. For the purpose of geo-referencing the acquired satellite imagery, ground-truth coordinates of some benchmark places within the forest reserve was relied on. Supervised classification algorithm, image processing, vectorization and map production were realized using ArcGIS. Various land use systems within the forest ecosystem were digitized into polygons of different types and colours for 2011 and 2016, roads were represented with lines of different thickness and colours. Of the six land-use delineated, the grassland increased from 26.50 % in 2011 to 45.53% in 2016 of the total land area with a percentage change of 71.81 %. Plantations of Gmelina arborea and Tectona grandis on the other hand reduced from 62.16 % in 2011 to 27.41% in 2016. The farmland and degraded land recorded percentage change of about 176.80 % and 8.70 % respectively from 2011 to 2016. Overall, the rate of deforestation in the study area is on the increase and becoming severe. About 72.59% of the total land area has been converted to non-forestry uses while the remnant 27.41% is occupied by plantations of Gmelina arborea and Tectona grandis. Interestingly, over 55 % of the plantation area in 2011 has changed to grassland, or converted to farmland and degraded land in 2016. The rate of change over time was about 9.79 % annually. Based on the results, rapid actions to prevail on the encroachers to stop deforestation and encouraged re-afforestation in the study area are recommended.

Keywords: land use change, forest reserve, satellite imagery, geographical information system

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
420 An Adaptive Oversampling Technique for Imbalanced Datasets

Authors: Shaukat Ali Shahee, Usha Ananthakumar

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A data set exhibits class imbalance problem when one class has very few examples compared to the other class, and this is also referred to as between class imbalance. The traditional classifiers fail to classify the minority class examples correctly due to its bias towards the majority class. Apart from between-class imbalance, imbalance within classes where classes are composed of a different number of sub-clusters with these sub-clusters containing different number of examples also deteriorates the performance of the classifier. Previously, many methods have been proposed for handling imbalanced dataset problem. These methods can be classified into four categories: data preprocessing, algorithmic based, cost-based methods and ensemble of classifier. Data preprocessing techniques have shown great potential as they attempt to improve data distribution rather than the classifier. Data preprocessing technique handles class imbalance either by increasing the minority class examples or by decreasing the majority class examples. Decreasing the majority class examples lead to loss of information and also when minority class has an absolute rarity, removing the majority class examples is generally not recommended. Existing methods available for handling class imbalance do not address both between-class imbalance and within-class imbalance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a method that handles between class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously for binary classification problem. Removing between class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously eliminates the biases of the classifier towards bigger sub-clusters by minimizing the error domination of bigger sub-clusters in total error. The proposed method uses model-based clustering to find the presence of sub-clusters or sub-concepts in the dataset. The number of examples oversampled among the sub-clusters is determined based on the complexity of sub-clusters. The method also takes into consideration the scatter of the data in the feature space and also adaptively copes up with unseen test data using Lowner-John ellipsoid for increasing the accuracy of the classifier. In this study, neural network is being used as this is one such classifier where the total error is minimized and removing the between-class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously help the classifier in giving equal weight to all the sub-clusters irrespective of the classes. The proposed method is validated on 9 publicly available data sets and compared with three existing oversampling techniques that rely on the spatial location of minority class examples in the euclidean feature space. The experimental results show the proposed method to be statistically significantly superior to other methods in terms of various accuracy measures. Thus the proposed method can serve as a good alternative to handle various problem domains like credit scoring, customer churn prediction, financial distress, etc., that typically involve imbalanced data sets.

Keywords: classification, imbalanced dataset, Lowner-John ellipsoid, model based clustering, oversampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 418
419 Evotrader: Bitcoin Trading Using Evolutionary Algorithms on Technical Analysis and Social Sentiment Data

Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

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Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
418 Comparati̇ve Study of Pi̇xel and Object-Based Image Classificati̇on Techni̇ques for Extracti̇on of Land Use/Land Cover Informati̇on

Authors: Mahesh Kumar Jat, Manisha Choudhary

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Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) have been used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, object based, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
417 Day Ahead and Intraday Electricity Demand Forecasting in Himachal Region using Machine Learning

Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

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Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

Procedia PDF Downloads 72
416 Monitoring the Change of Padma River Bank at Faridpur, Bangladesh Using Remote Sensing Approach

Authors: Ilme Faridatul, Bo Wu

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Bangladesh is often called as a motherland of rivers. It contains about 700 rivers among all these the Padma River is one of the largest rivers of Bangladesh. The change of river bank and erosion has become a common environmental natural hazard in Bangladesh. The river banks are under intense pressure from natural processes such as erosion and accretion as well as anthropogenic processes such as urban growth and pollution. The Padma River is flowing along ten districts of Bangladesh among all these Faridpur district is most vulnerable to river bank erosion. The severity of the river erosion is so high that each year a thousand of populations become homeless and lose their agricultural lands. Though the Faridpur district is most vulnerable to river bank erosion no specific research has been conducted to identify the changing pattern of river bank along this district. The outcome of the research may serve as guidance to prepare river bank monitoring program and management. This research has utilized integrated techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system to monitor the changes from 1995 to 2015 at Faridpur district. To discriminate the land water interface Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) algorithm is applied and on screen digitization approach is used over MNDWI images of 1995, 2002 and 2015 for river bank line extraction. The extent of changes in the river bank along Faridpur district is estimated through overlaying the digitized maps of all three years. The river bank lines are highlighted to infer the erosion and accretion and the changes are calculated. The result shows that the middle of the river is gaining land through sedimentation and the both side river bank is shifting causing severe erosion that consequently resulting the loss of farmland and homestead. Over the study period from 1995 to 2015 it witnessed huge erosion and accretion that played an active role in the changes of the river bank.

Keywords: river bank, erosion and accretion, change monitoring, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
415 Intelligent Campus Monitoring: YOLOv8-Based High-Accuracy Activity Recognition

Authors: A. Degale Desta, Tamirat Kebamo

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Background: Recent advances in computer vision and pattern recognition have significantly improved activity recognition through video analysis, particularly with the application of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). One-stage detectors now enable efficient video-based recognition by simultaneously predicting object categories and locations. Such advancements are highly relevant in educational settings where CCTV surveillance could automatically monitor academic activities, enhancing security and classroom management. However, current datasets and recognition systems lack the specific focus on campus environments necessary for practical application in these settings.Objective: This study aims to address this gap by developing a dataset and testing an automated activity recognition system specifically tailored for educational campuses. The EthioCAD dataset was created to capture various classroom activities and teacher-student interactions, facilitating reliable recognition of academic activities using deep learning models. Method: EthioCAD, a novel video-based dataset, was created with a design science research approach to encompass teacher-student interactions across three domains and 18 distinct classroom activities. Using the Roboflow AI framework, the data was processed, with 4.224 KB of frames and 33.485 MB of images managed for frame extraction, labeling, and organization. The Ultralytics YOLOv8 model was then implemented within Google Colab to evaluate the dataset’s effectiveness, achieving high mean Average Precision (mAP) scores. Results: The YOLOv8 model demonstrated robust activity recognition within campus-like settings, achieving an mAP50 of 90.2% and an mAP50-95 of 78.6%. These results highlight the potential of EthioCAD, combined with YOLOv8, to provide reliable detection and classification of classroom activities, supporting automated surveillance needs on educational campuses. Discussion: The high performance of YOLOv8 on the EthioCAD dataset suggests that automated activity recognition for surveillance is feasible within educational environments. This system addresses current limitations in campus-specific data and tools, offering a tailored solution for academic monitoring that could enhance the effectiveness of CCTV systems in these settings. Conclusion: The EthioCAD dataset, alongside the YOLOv8 model, provides a promising framework for automated campus activity recognition. This approach lays the groundwork for future advancements in CCTV-based educational surveillance systems, enabling more refined and reliable monitoring of classroom activities.

Keywords: deep CNN, EthioCAD, deep learning, YOLOv8, activity recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 17
414 Detection of Alzheimer's Protein on Nano Designed Polymer Surfaces in Water and Artificial Saliva

Authors: Sevde Altuntas, Fatih Buyukserin

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Alzheimer’s disease is responsible for irreversible neural damage of brain parts. One of the disease markers is Amyloid-β 1-42 protein that accumulates in the brain in the form plaques. The basic problem for detection of the protein is the low amount of protein that cannot be detected properly in body liquids such as blood, saliva or urine. To solve this problem, tests like ELISA or PCR are proposed which are expensive, require specialized personnel and can contain complex protocols. Therefore, Surface-enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) a good candidate for detection of Amyloid-β 1-42 protein. Because the spectroscopic technique can potentially allow even single molecule detection from liquid and solid surfaces. Besides SERS signal can be improved by using nanopattern surface and also is specific to molecules. In this context, our study proposes to fabricate diagnostic test models that utilize Au-coated nanopatterned polycarbonate (PC) surfaces modified with Thioflavin - T to detect low concentrations of Amyloid-β 1-42 protein in water and artificial saliva medium by the enhancement of protein SERS signal. The nanopatterned PC surface that was used to enhance SERS signal was fabricated by using Anodic Alumina Membranes (AAM) as a template. It is possible to produce AAMs with different column structures and varying thicknesses depending on voltage and anodization time. After fabrication process, the pore diameter of AAMs can be arranged with dilute acid solution treatment. In this study, two different columns structures were prepared. After a surface modification to decrease their surface energy, AAMs were treated with PC solution. Following the solvent evaporation, nanopatterned PC films with tunable pillared structures were peeled off from the membrane surface. The PC film was then modified with Au and Thioflavin-T for the detection of Amyloid-β 1-42 protein. The protein detection studies were conducted first in water via this biosensor platform. Same measurements were conducted in artificial saliva to detect the presence of Amyloid Amyloid-β 1-42 protein. SEM, SERS and contact angle measurements were carried out for the characterization of different surfaces and further demonstration of the protein attachment. SERS enhancement factor calculations were also completed via experimental results. As a result, our research group fabricated diagnostic test models that utilize Au-coated nanopatterned polycarbonate (PC) surfaces modified with Thioflavin-T to detect low concentrations of Alzheimer’s Amiloid – β protein in water and artificial saliva medium. This work was supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) Grant No: 214Z167.

Keywords: alzheimer, anodic aluminum oxide, nanotopography, surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy

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413 Implementation of Research Papers and Industry Related Experiments by Undergraduate Students in the Field of Automation

Authors: Veena N. Hegde, S. R. Desai

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Motivating a heterogeneous group of students towards engagement in research related activities is a challenging task in engineering education. An effort is being made at the Department of Electronics and Instrumentation Engineering, where two courses are taken up on a pilot basis to kindle research interests in students at the undergraduate level. The courses, namely algorithm and system design (ASD) and automation in process control (APC), are selected for experimentation purposes. The task is being accomplished by providing scope for implementation of research papers and proposing solutions for the current industrial problems by the student teams. The course instructors have proposed an alternative assessment tool to evaluate the undergraduate students that involve activities beyond the curriculum. The method was tested for the aforementioned two courses in a particular academic year, and as per the observations, there is a considerable improvement in the number of student engagement towards research in the subsequent years of their undergraduate course. The student groups from the third-year engineering were made to read, implement the research papers, and they were also instructed to develop simulation modules for certain processes aiming towards automation. The target audience being students, were common for both the courses and the students' strength was 30. Around 50% of successful students were given the continued tasks in the subsequent two semesters, and out of 15 students who continued from sixth semesters were able to follow the research methodology well in the seventh and eighth semesters. Further, around 30% of the students out of 15 ended up carrying out project work with a research component involved and were successful in producing four conference papers. The methodology adopted is justified using a sample data set, and the outcomes are highlighted. The quantitative and qualitative results obtained through this study prove that such practices will enhance learning experiences substantially at the undergraduate level.

Keywords: industrial problems, learning experiences, research related activities, student engagement

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412 Pneumoperitoneum Creation Assisted with Optical Coherence Tomography and Automatic Identification

Authors: Eric Yi-Hsiu Huang, Meng-Chun Kao, Wen-Chuan Kuo

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For every laparoscopic surgery, a safe pneumoperitoneumcreation (gaining access to the peritoneal cavity) is the first and essential step. However, closed pneumoperitoneum is usually obtained by blind insertion of a Veress needle into the peritoneal cavity, which may carry potential risks suchas bowel and vascular injury.Until now, there remains no definite measure to visually confirm the position of the needle tip inside the peritoneal cavity. Therefore, this study established an image-guided Veress needle method by combining a fiber probe with optical coherence tomography (OCT). An algorithm was also proposed for determining the exact location of the needle tip through the acquisition of OCT images. Our method not only generates a series of “live” two-dimensional (2D) images during the needle puncture toward the peritoneal cavity but also can eliminate operator variation in image judgment, thus improving peritoneal access safety. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Taipei Veterans General Hospital (Taipei VGH IACUC 2020-144). A total of 2400 in vivo OCT images, independent of each other, were acquired from experiments of forty peritoneal punctures on two piglets. Characteristic OCT image patterns could be observed during the puncturing process. The ROC curve demonstrates the discrimination capability of these quantitative image features of the classifier, showing the accuracy of the classifier for determining the inside vs. outside of the peritoneal was 98% (AUC=0.98). In summary, the present study demonstrates the ability of the combination of our proposed automatic identification method and OCT imaging for automatically and objectively identifying the location of the needle tip. OCT images translate the blind closed technique of peritoneal access into a visualized procedure, thus improving peritoneal access safety.

Keywords: pneumoperitoneum, optical coherence tomography, automatic identification, veress needle

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411 Improving 99mTc-tetrofosmin Myocardial Perfusion Images by Time Subtraction Technique

Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Hayato Ishimura, Masao Miyagawa, Teruhito Mochizuki

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Quantitative measurement of myocardium perfusion is possible with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using a semiconductor detector. However, accumulation of 99mTc-tetrofosmin in the liver may make it difficult to assess that accurately in the inferior myocardium. Our idea is to reduce the high accumulation in the liver by using dynamic SPECT imaging and a technique called time subtraction. We evaluated the performance of a new SPECT system with a cadmium-zinc-telluride solid-state semi- conductor detector (Discovery NM 530c; GE Healthcare). Our system acquired list-mode raw data over 10 minutes for a typical patient. From the data, ten SPECT images were reconstructed, one for every minute of acquired data. Reconstruction with the semiconductor detector was based on an implementation of a 3-D iterative Bayesian reconstruction algorithm. We studied 20 patients with coronary artery disease (mean age 75.4 ± 12.1 years; range 42-86; 16 males and 4 females). In each subject, 259 MBq of 99mTc-tetrofosmin was injected intravenously. We performed both a phantom and a clinical study using dynamic SPECT. An approximation to a liver-only image is obtained by reconstructing an image from the early projections during which time the liver accumulation dominates (0.5~2.5 minutes SPECT image-5~10 minutes SPECT image). The extracted liver-only image is then subtracted from a later SPECT image that shows both the liver and the myocardial uptake (5~10 minutes SPECT image-liver-only image). The time subtraction of liver was possible in both a phantom and the clinical study. The visualization of the inferior myocardium was improved. In past reports, higher accumulation in the myocardium due to the overlap of the liver is un-diagnosable. Using our time subtraction method, the image quality of the 99mTc-tetorofosmin myocardial SPECT image is considerably improved.

Keywords: 99mTc-tetrofosmin, dynamic SPECT, time subtraction, semiconductor detector

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410 Data Mining Spatial: Unsupervised Classification of Geographic Data

Authors: Chahrazed Zouaoui

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In recent years, the volume of geospatial information is increasing due to the evolution of communication technologies and information, this information is presented often by geographic information systems (GIS) and stored on of spatial databases (BDS). The classical data mining revealed a weakness in knowledge extraction at these enormous amounts of data due to the particularity of these spatial entities, which are characterized by the interdependence between them (1st law of geography). This gave rise to spatial data mining. Spatial data mining is a process of analyzing geographic data, which allows the extraction of knowledge and spatial relationships from geospatial data, including methods of this process we distinguish the monothematic and thematic, geo- Clustering is one of the main tasks of spatial data mining, which is registered in the part of the monothematic method. It includes geo-spatial entities similar in the same class and it affects more dissimilar to the different classes. In other words, maximize intra-class similarity and minimize inter similarity classes. Taking account of the particularity of geo-spatial data. Two approaches to geo-clustering exist, the dynamic processing of data involves applying algorithms designed for the direct treatment of spatial data, and the approach based on the spatial data pre-processing, which consists of applying clustering algorithms classic pre-processed data (by integration of spatial relationships). This approach (based on pre-treatment) is quite complex in different cases, so the search for approximate solutions involves the use of approximation algorithms, including the algorithms we are interested in dedicated approaches (clustering methods for partitioning and methods for density) and approaching bees (biomimetic approach), our study is proposed to design very significant to this problem, using different algorithms for automatically detecting geo-spatial neighborhood in order to implement the method of geo- clustering by pre-treatment, and the application of the bees algorithm to this problem for the first time in the field of geo-spatial.

Keywords: mining, GIS, geo-clustering, neighborhood

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409 Optimal Trajectory Finding of IDP Ventilation Control with Outdoor Air Information and Indoor Health Risk Index

Authors: Minjeong Kim, Seungchul Lee, Iman Janghorban Esfahani, Jeong Tai Kim, ChangKyoo Yoo

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A trajectory of set-point of ventilation control systems plays an important role for efficient ventilation inside subway stations since it affects the level of indoor air pollutants and ventilation energy consumption. To maintain indoor air quality (IAQ) at a comfortable range with lower ventilation energy consumption, the optimal trajectory of the ventilation control system needs to be determined. The concentration of air pollutants inside the station shows a diurnal variation in accordance with the variations in the number of passengers and subway frequency. To consider the diurnal variation of IAQ, an iterative dynamic programming (IDP) that searches for a piecewise control policy by separating whole duration into several stages is used. When outdoor air is contaminated by pollutants, it enters the subway station through the ventilation system, which results in the deteriorated IAQ and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, to consider the influence of outdoor air quality (OAQ), a new performance index of the IDP with the passenger health risk and OAQ is proposed. This study was carried out for an underground subway station at Seoul Metro, Korea. The optimal set-points of the ventilation control system are determined every 3 hours, then, the ventilation controller adjusts the ventilation fan speed according to the optimal set-point changes. Compared to manual ventilation system which is operated irrespective of the OAQ, the IDP-based ventilation control system saves 3.7% of the energy consumption. Compared to the fixed set-point controller which is operated irrespective of the IAQ diurnal variation, the IDP-based controller shows better performance with a 2% decrease in energy consumption, maintaining the comfortable IAQ range inside the station.

Keywords: indoor air quality, iterative dynamic algorithm, outdoor air information, ventilation control system

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408 Investigating the Energy Harvesting Potential of a Pitch-Plunge Airfoil Subjected to Fluctuating Wind

Authors: Magu Raam Prasaad R., Venkatramani Jagadish

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Recent studies in the literature have shown that randomly fluctuating wind flows can give rise to a distinct regime of pre-flutter oscillations called intermittency. Intermittency is characterized by the presence of sporadic bursts of high amplitude oscillations interspersed amidst low-amplitude aperiodic fluctuations. The focus of this study is on investigating the energy harvesting potential of these intermittent oscillations. Available literature has by and large devoted its attention on extracting energy from flutter oscillations. The possibility of harvesting energy from pre-flutter regimes have remained largely unexplored. However, extracting energy from violent flutter oscillations can be severely detrimental to the structural integrity of airfoil structures. Consequently, investigating the relatively stable pre-flutter responses for energy extraction applications is of practical importance. The present study is devoted towards addressing these concerns. A pitch-plunge airfoil with cubic hardening nonlinearity in the plunge and pitch degree of freedom is considered. The input flow fluctuations are modelled using a sinusoidal term with randomly perturbed frequencies. An electromagnetic coupling is provided to the pitch-plunge equations, such that, energy from the wind induced vibrations of the structural response are extracted. With the mean flow speed as the bifurcation parameter, a fourth order Runge-Kutta based time marching algorithm is used to solve the governing aeroelastic equations with electro-magnetic coupling. The harnessed energy from the intermittency regime is presented and the results are discussed in comparison to that obtained from the flutter regime. The insights from this study could be useful in health monitoring of aeroelastic structures.

Keywords: aeroelasticity, energy harvesting, intermittency, randomly fluctuating flows

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407 Action Potential of Lateral Geniculate Neurons at Low Threshold Currents: Simulation Study

Authors: Faris Tarlochan, Siva Mahesh Tangutooru

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Lateral Geniculate Nucleus (LGN) is the relay center in the visual pathway as it receives most of the input information from retinal ganglion cells (RGC) and sends to visual cortex. Low threshold calcium currents (IT) at the membrane are the unique indicator to characterize this firing functionality of the LGN neurons gained by the RGC input. According to the LGN functional requirements such as functional mapping of RGC to LGN, the morphologies of the LGN neurons were developed. During the neurological disorders like glaucoma, the mapping between RGC and LGN is disconnected and hence stimulating LGN electrically using deep brain electrodes can restore the functionalities of LGN. A computational model was developed for simulating the LGN neurons with three predominant morphologies, each representing different functional mapping of RGC to LGN. The firings of action potentials at LGN neuron due to IT were characterized by varying the stimulation parameters, morphological parameters and orientation. A wide range of stimulation parameters (stimulus amplitude, duration and frequency) represents the various strengths of the electrical stimulation with different morphological parameters (soma size, dendrites size and structure). The orientation (0-1800) of LGN neuron with respect to the stimulating electrode represents the angle at which the extracellular deep brain stimulation towards LGN neuron is performed. A reduced dendrite structure was used in the model using Bush–Sejnowski algorithm to decrease the computational time while conserving its input resistance and total surface area. The major finding is that an input potential of 0.4 V is required to produce the action potential in the LGN neuron which is placed at 100 µm distance from the electrode. From this study, it can be concluded that the neuroprostheses under design would need to consider the capability of inducing at least 0.4V to produce action potentials in LGN.

Keywords: Lateral Geniculate Nucleus, visual cortex, finite element, glaucoma, neuroprostheses

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
406 Simplified INS\GPS Integration Algorithm in Land Vehicle Navigation

Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdunnaser Tresh

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Land vehicle navigation is subject of great interest today. Global Positioning System (GPS) is the main navigation system for positioning in such systems. GPS alone is incapable of providing continuous and reliable positioning, because of its inherent dependency on external electromagnetic signals. Inertial Navigation (INS) is the implementation of inertial sensors to determine the position and orientation of a vehicle. The availability of low-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical-System (MEMS) inertial sensors is now making it feasible to develop INS using an inertial measurement unit (IMU). INS has unbounded error growth since the error accumulates at each step. Usually, GPS and INS are integrated with a loosely coupled scheme. With the development of low-cost, MEMS inertial sensors and GPS technology, integrated INS/GPS systems are beginning to meet the growing demands of lower cost, smaller size, and seamless navigation solutions for land vehicles. Although MEMS inertial sensors are very inexpensive compared to conventional sensors, their cost (especially MEMS gyros) is still not acceptable for many low-end civilian applications (for example, commercial car navigation or personal location systems). An efficient way to reduce the expense of these systems is to reduce the number of gyros and accelerometers, therefore, to use a partial IMU (ParIMU) configuration. For land vehicular use, the most important gyroscope is the vertical gyro that senses the heading of the vehicle and two horizontal accelerometers for determining the velocity of the vehicle. This paper presents a field experiment for a low-cost strap down (ParIMU)\GPS combination, with data post processing for the determination of 2-D components of position (trajectory), velocity and heading. In the present approach, we have neglected earth rotation and gravity variations, because of the poor gyroscope sensitivities of our low-cost IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) and because of the relatively small area of the trajectory.

Keywords: GPS, IMU, Kalman filter, materials engineering

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405 A Statistical Approach to Predict and Classify the Commercial Hatchability of Chickens Using Extrinsic Parameters of Breeders and Eggs

Authors: M. S. Wickramarachchi, L. S. Nawarathna, C. M. B. Dematawewa

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Hatchery performance is critical for the profitability of poultry breeder operations. Some extrinsic parameters of eggs and breeders cause to increase or decrease the hatchability. This study aims to identify the affecting extrinsic parameters on the commercial hatchability of local chicken's eggs and determine the most efficient classification model with a hatchability rate greater than 90%. In this study, seven extrinsic parameters were considered: egg weight, moisture loss, breeders age, number of fertilised eggs, shell width, shell length, and shell thickness. Multiple linear regression was performed to determine the most influencing variable on hatchability. First, the correlation between each parameter and hatchability were checked. Then a multiple regression model was developed, and the accuracy of the fitted model was evaluated. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM) with a linear kernel, and Random Forest (RF) algorithms were applied to classify the hatchability. This grouping process was conducted using binary classification techniques. Hatchability was negatively correlated with egg weight, breeders' age, shell width, shell length, and positive correlations were identified with moisture loss, number of fertilised eggs, and shell thickness. Multiple linear regression models were more accurate than single linear models regarding the highest coefficient of determination (R²) with 94% and minimum AIC and BIC values. According to the classification results, RF, CART, and kNN had performed the highest accuracy values 0.99, 0.975, and 0.972, respectively, for the commercial hatchery process. Therefore, the RF is the most appropriate machine learning algorithm for classifying the breeder outcomes, which are economically profitable or not, in a commercial hatchery.

Keywords: classification models, egg weight, fertilised eggs, multiple linear regression

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404 A Machine Learning Approach for Detecting and Locating Hardware Trojans

Authors: Kaiwen Zheng, Wanting Zhou, Nan Tang, Lei Li, Yuanhang He

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The integrated circuit industry has become a cornerstone of the information society, finding widespread application in areas such as industry, communication, medicine, and aerospace. However, with the increasing complexity of integrated circuits, Hardware Trojans (HTs) implanted by attackers have become a significant threat to their security. In this paper, we proposed a hardware trojan detection method for large-scale circuits. As HTs introduce physical characteristic changes such as structure, area, and power consumption as additional redundant circuits, we proposed a machine-learning-based hardware trojan detection method based on the physical characteristics of gate-level netlists. This method transforms the hardware trojan detection problem into a machine-learning binary classification problem based on physical characteristics, greatly improving detection speed. To address the problem of imbalanced data, where the number of pure circuit samples is far less than that of HTs circuit samples, we used the SMOTETomek algorithm to expand the dataset and further improve the performance of the classifier. We used three machine learning algorithms, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine, to train and validate benchmark circuits on Trust-Hub, and all achieved good results. In our case studies based on AES encryption circuits provided by trust-hub, the test results showed the effectiveness of the proposed method. To further validate the method’s effectiveness for detecting variant HTs, we designed variant HTs using open-source HTs. The proposed method can guarantee robust detection accuracy in the millisecond level detection time for IC, and FPGA design flows and has good detection performance for library variant HTs.

Keywords: hardware trojans, physical properties, machine learning, hardware security

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
403 Homeless Population Modeling and Trend Prediction Through Identifying Key Factors and Machine Learning

Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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402 Analyzing Nonsimilar Convective Heat Transfer in Copper/Alumina Nanofluid with Magnetic Field and Thermal Radiations

Authors: Abdulmohsen Alruwaili

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A partial differential system featuring momentum and energy balance is often used to describe simulations of flow initiation and thermal shifting in boundary layers. The buoyancy force in terms of temperature is factored in the momentum balance equation. Buoyancy force causes the flow quantity to fluctuate along the streamwise direction 𝑋; therefore, the problem can be, to our best knowledge, analyzed through nonsimilar modeling. In this analysis, a nonsimilar model is evolved for radiative mixed convection of a magnetized power-law nanoliquid flow on top of a vertical plate installed in a stationary fluid. The upward linear stretching initiated the flow in the vertical direction. Assuming nanofluids are composite of copper (Cu) and alumina (Al₂O₃) nanoparticles, the viscous dissipation in this case is negligible. The nonsimilar system is dealt with analytically by local nonsimilarity (LNS) via numerical algorithm bvp4c. Surface temperature and flow field are shown visually in relation to factors like mixed convection, magnetic field strength, nanoparticle volume fraction, radiation parameters, and Prandtl number. The repercussions of magnetic and mixed convection parameters on the rate of energy transfer and friction coefficient are represented in tabular forms. The results obtained are compared to the published literature. It is found that the existence of nanoparticles significantly improves the temperature profile of considered nanoliquid. It is also observed that when the estimates of the magnetic parameter increase, the velocity profile decreases. Enhancement in nanoparticle concentration and mixed convection parameter improves the velocity profile.

Keywords: nanofluid, power law model, mixed convection, thermal radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 35