Search results for: panel stochastic frontier models
7546 Analysis of Palm Oil Production and Rubber Production to Gross Domestic Product in Ten Districts of West Kalimantan
Authors: Evy Sulistianingsih, Mariatul Kiftiah, Dedi Rosadi, Heni Wahyuni
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This research attempts to analyse palm oil production and rubber production to prosperity of the community of ten districts in West Kalimantan namely Sanggau, Sintang, Sambas, Ketapang, Bengkayang, Landak, Singkawang, Kapuas Hulu, Melawi and Sekadau by panel regression. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the districts will be used to be a prosperity indicator on this research. Based on the result of analysis, it can be concluded that palm oil and rubber production statistically give contribution to GDP. Adjusted coefficient determination of Fixed Effect Model indicates that 76% of GDP’s variation can be explained by palm oil and rubber production. In another point of view, there should be a district’s government intervention to regulate the plantations. In addition, there is an obligation of the government to monitor regularly the plantations and to conduct researches in order to govern better planning of lands that have been used to the plantations. So that, the environmental effects that have been caused by the plantation can be diminished.Keywords: gross domestic product (GDP), panel, palm, welfare
Procedia PDF Downloads 2557545 The Response of the Central Bank to the Exchange Rate Movement: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium-Vector Autoregressive Approach for Tunisian Economy
Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma
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The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2987544 Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis of a Retaining Wall for C-Φ Soil Backfill
Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges
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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 4187543 Exploring Socio-Economic Barriers of Green Entrepreneurship in Iran and Their Interactions Using Interpretive Structural Modeling
Authors: Younis Jabarzadeh, Rahim Sarvari, Negar Ahmadi Alghalandis
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Entrepreneurship at both individual and organizational level is one of the most driving forces in economic development and leads to growth and competition, job generation and social development. Especially in developing countries, the role of entrepreneurship in economic and social prosperity is more emphasized. But the effect of global economic development on the environment is undeniable, especially in negative ways, and there is a need to rethink current business models and the way entrepreneurs act to introduce new businesses to address and embed environmental issues in order to achieve sustainable development. In this paper, green or sustainable entrepreneurship is addressed in Iran to identify challenges and barriers entrepreneurs in the economic and social sectors face in developing green business solutions. Sustainable or green entrepreneurship has been gaining interest among scholars in recent years and addressing its challenges and barriers need much more attention to fill the gap in the literature and facilitate the way those entrepreneurs are pursuing. This research comprised of two main phases: qualitative and quantitative. At qualitative phase, after a thorough literature review, fuzzy Delphi method is utilized to verify those challenges and barriers by gathering a panel of experts and surveying them. In this phase, several other contextually related factors were added to the list of identified barriers and challenges mentioned in the literature. Then, at the quantitative phase, Interpretive Structural Modeling is applied to construct a network of interactions among those barriers identified at the previous phase. Again, a panel of subject matter experts comprised of academic and industry experts was surveyed. The results of this study can be used by policymakers in both the public and industry sector, to introduce more systematic solutions to eliminate those barriers and help entrepreneurs overcome challenges of sustainable entrepreneurship. It also contributes to the literature as the first research in this type which deals with the barriers of sustainable entrepreneurship and explores their interaction.Keywords: green entrepreneurship, barriers, fuzzy Delphi method, interpretive structural modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 1667542 Detecting Cyberbullying, Spam and Bot Behavior and Fake News in Social Media Accounts Using Machine Learning
Authors: M. D. D. Chathurangi, M. G. K. Nayanathara, K. M. H. M. M. Gunapala, G. M. R. G. Dayananda, Kavinga Yapa Abeywardena, Deemantha Siriwardana
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Due to the growing popularity of social media platforms at present, there are various concerns, mostly cyberbullying, spam, bot accounts, and the spread of incorrect information. To develop a risk score calculation system as a thorough method for deciphering and exposing unethical social media profiles, this research explores the most suitable algorithms to our best knowledge in detecting the mentioned concerns. Various multiple models, such as Naïve Bayes, CNN, KNN, Stochastic Gradient Descent, Gradient Boosting Classifier, etc., were examined, and the best results were taken into the development of the risk score system. For cyberbullying, the Logistic Regression algorithm achieved an accuracy of 84.9%, while the spam-detecting MLP model gained 98.02% accuracy. The bot accounts identifying the Random Forest algorithm obtained 91.06% accuracy, and 84% accuracy was acquired for fake news detection using SVM.Keywords: cyberbullying, spam behavior, bot accounts, fake news, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 367541 Financial Development, Institutional Quality and Environmental Conditions in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Evidence From Oil- And Non-oil-Producing Countries
Authors: Jamel Boukhatem, Semia Rachid, Marmar Nasr
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Considering the differences between oil- and non-oil-producing countries, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of financial development (FD) and institutional quality (IQ) on CO2 emissions in 15 MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the period 1996-2018 using the Panel ARDL approach. We found evidence to support an unconditional long run effect of FD on environmental conditions (EC), with quite significant differences between the two groups of countries. While FD leads to environmental degradation (ED) in non-oil-producing countries, it helps protect the environment in oil-producing ones. Regarding the effects of IQ on EC, they are not significant in both short- and long run for non-oil-producing countries, but they are significant for oil-producing ones only in the long run. In the short run, IQ indicators haven’t significant effects on EC for the two groups of countries.Keywords: financial development, institutional quality, environmental conditions, Panel ARDL
Procedia PDF Downloads 827540 Synthesis and Anti-Cancer Evaluation of Uranyle Complexes
Authors: Abdol-Hassan Doulah
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In this research, some of the inorganic complexes of uranyl with N- donor ligands were synthesized. Complexes were characteriezed by FT-IR and UV spectra, ¹HNMR, ¹³CNMR and some physical properties. The uranyl unit (UO2) is composed of a center of uranium atom with the charge (+6) and two oxygen atom by forming two U=O double bonds. The structure is linear (O=U=O, 180) and usually stable. So other ligands often coordinate to the U atom in the plane perpendicularly to the O=U=O axis. The antitumor activity of some of ligand and their complexes against a panel of human tumor cell lines (HT29: Haman colon adenocarcinoma cell line T47D: human breast adenocarcinoma cell line) were determined by MTT(3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide) assay. These data suggest that some of these compounds provide good models for the further design of potent antitumor compounds.Keywords: inorganic, uranyl complex-donor ligands, Schiff bases, anticancer activity
Procedia PDF Downloads 4547539 Management of Cultural Heritage: Bologna Gates
Authors: Alfonso Ippolito, Cristiana Bartolomei
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A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.Keywords: cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D-3D models
Procedia PDF Downloads 4237538 A Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem with Ordered Customers and Collection of Two Similar Products
Authors: Epaminondas G. Kyriakidis, Theodosis D. Dimitrakos, Constantinos C. Karamatsoukis
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The vehicle routing problem (VRP) is a well-known problem in Operations Research and has been widely studied during the last fifty-five years. The context of the VRP is that of delivering or collecting products to or from customers who are scattered in a geographical area and have placed orders for these products. A vehicle or a fleet of vehicles start their routes from a depot and visit the customers in order to satisfy their demands. Special attention has been given to the capacitated VRP in which the vehicles have limited carrying capacity for the goods that are delivered or collected. In the present work, we present a specific capacitated stochastic vehicle routing problem which has many realistic applications. We develop and analyze a mathematical model for a specific vehicle routing problem in which a vehicle starts its route from a depot and visits N customers according to a particular sequence in order to collect from them two similar but not identical products. We name these products, product 1 and product 2. Each customer possesses items either of product 1 or product 2 with known probabilities. The number of the items of product 1 or product 2 that each customer possesses is a discrete random variable with known distribution. The actual quantity and the actual type of product that each customer possesses are revealed only when the vehicle arrives at the customer’s site. It is assumed that the vehicle has two compartments. We name these compartments, compartment 1 and compartment 2. It is assumed that compartment 1 is suitable for loading product 1 and compartment 2 is suitable for loading product 2. However, it is permitted to load items of product 1 into compartment 2 and items of product 2 into compartment 1. These actions cause costs that are due to extra labor. The vehicle is allowed during its route to return to the depot to unload the items of both products. The travel costs between consecutive customers and the travel costs between the customers and the depot are known. The objective is to find the optimal routing strategy, i.e. the routing strategy that minimizes the total expected cost among all possible strategies for servicing all customers. It is possible to develop a suitable dynamic programming algorithm for the determination of the optimal routing strategy. It is also possible to prove that the optimal routing strategy has a specific threshold-type strategy. Specifically, it is shown that for each customer the optimal actions are characterized by some critical integers. This structural result enables us to design a special-purpose dynamic programming algorithm that operates only over these strategies having this structural property. Extensive numerical results provide strong evidence that the special-purpose dynamic programming algorithm is considerably more efficient than the initial dynamic programming algorithm. Furthermore, if we consider the same problem without the assumption that the customers are ordered, numerical experiments indicate that the optimal routing strategy can be computed if N is smaller or equal to eight.Keywords: dynamic programming, similar products, stochastic demands, stochastic preferences, vehicle routing problem
Procedia PDF Downloads 2577537 Dynamic Reliability for a Complex System and Process: Application on Offshore Platform in Mozambique
Authors: Raed KOUTA, José-Alcebiades-Ernesto HLUNGUANE, Eric Châtele
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The search for and exploitation of new fossil energy resources is taking place in the context of the gradual depletion of existing deposits. Despite the adoption of international targets to combat global warming, the demand for fuels continues to grow, contradicting the movement towards an energy-efficient society. The increase in the share of offshore in global hydrocarbon production tends to compensate for the depletion of terrestrial reserves, thus constituting a major challenge for the players in the sector. Through the economic potential it represents, and the energy independence it provides, offshore exploitation is also a challenge for States such as Mozambique, which have large maritime areas and whose environmental wealth must be considered. The exploitation of new reserves on economically viable terms depends on available technologies. The development of deep and ultra-deep offshore requires significant research and development efforts. Progress has also been made in managing the multiple risks inherent in this activity. Our study proposes a reliability approach to develop products and processes designed to live at sea. Indeed, the context of an offshore platform requires highly reliable solutions to overcome the difficulties of access to the system for regular maintenance and quick repairs and which must resist deterioration and degradation processes. One of the characteristics of failures that we consider is the actual conditions of use that are considered 'extreme.' These conditions depend on time and the interactions between the different causes. These are the two factors that give the degradation process its dynamic character, hence the need to develop dynamic reliability models. Our work highlights mathematical models that can explicitly manage interactions between components and process variables. These models are accompanied by numerical resolution methods that help to structure a dynamic reliability approach in a physical and probabilistic context. The application developed makes it possible to evaluate the reliability, availability, and maintainability of a floating storage and unloading platform for liquefied natural gas production.Keywords: dynamic reliability, offshore plateform, stochastic process, uncertainties
Procedia PDF Downloads 1207536 Coupling Random Demand and Route Selection in the Transportation Network Design Problem
Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay
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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic
Procedia PDF Downloads 6477535 Data-Centric Anomaly Detection with Diffusion Models
Authors: Sheldon Liu, Gordon Wang, Lei Liu, Xuefeng Liu
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Anomaly detection, also referred to as one-class classification, plays a crucial role in identifying product images that deviate from the expected distribution. This study introduces Data-centric Anomaly Detection with Diffusion Models (DCADDM), presenting a systematic strategy for data collection and further diversifying the data with image generation via diffusion models. The algorithm addresses data collection challenges in real-world scenarios and points toward data augmentation with the integration of generative AI capabilities. The paper explores the generation of normal images using diffusion models. The experiments demonstrate that with 30% of the original normal image size, modeling in an unsupervised setting with state-of-the-art approaches can achieve equivalent performances. With the addition of generated images via diffusion models (10% equivalence of the original dataset size), the proposed algorithm achieves better or equivalent anomaly localization performance.Keywords: diffusion models, anomaly detection, data-centric, generative AI
Procedia PDF Downloads 827534 Ho-Doped Lithium Niobate Thin Films: Raman Spectroscopy, Structure and Luminescence
Authors: Edvard Kokanyan, Narine Babajanyan, Ninel Kokanyan, Marco Bazzan
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Lithium niobate (LN) crystals, renowned for their exceptional nonlinear optical, electro-optical, piezoelectric, and photorefractive properties, stand as foundational materials in diverse fields of study and application. While they have long been utilized in frequency converters of laser radiation, electro-optical modulators, and holographic information recording media, LN crystals doped with rare earth ions represent a compelling frontier for modern compact devices. These materials exhibit immense potential as key components in infrared lasers, optical sensors, self-cooling systems, and radiation balanced laser setups. In this study, we present the successful synthesis of Ho-doped lithium niobate (LN:Ho) thin films on sapphire substrates employing the Sol-Gel technique. The films exhibit a strong crystallographic orientation along the perpendicular direction to the substrate surface, with X-ray diffraction analysis confirming the predominant alignment of the film's "c" axis, notably evidenced by the intense (006) reflection peak. Further characterization through Raman spectroscopy, employing a confocal Raman microscope (LabRAM HR Evolution) with exciting wavelengths of 532 nm and 785 nm, unraveled intriguing insights. Under excitation with a 785 nm laser, Raman scattering obeyed selection rules, while employing a 532 nm laser unveiled additional forbidden lines reminiscent of behaviors observed in bulk LN:Ho crystals. These supplementary lines were attributed to luminescence induced by excitation at 532 nm. Leveraging data from anti-Stokes Raman lines facilitated the disentanglement of luminescence spectra from the investigated samples. Surface scanning affirmed the uniformity of both structure and luminescence across the thin films. Notably, despite the robust orientation of the "c" axis perpendicular to the substrate surface, Raman signals indicated a stochastic distribution of "a" and "b" axes, validating the mosaic structure of the films along the mentioned axis. This study offers valuable insights into the structural properties of Ho-doped lithium niobate thin films, with the observed luminescence behavior holding significant promise for potential applications in optoelectronic devices.Keywords: lithium niobate, Sol-Gel, luminescence, Raman spectroscopy
Procedia PDF Downloads 607533 Copula Markov Switching Multifractal Models for Forecasting Value-at-Risk
Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya
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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 1657532 Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison
Authors: Elina Bakhtieva
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The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap. However, modern marketing offers no widely approved digital marketing maturity model, and thus, some marketing institutions provide their own tools. The purpose of this paper is building an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model based on a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of existing models. The current study provides an analytical review of the existing digital marketing maturity models with open access. The results of the research are twofold. First, the provided SWOT analysis outlines the main advantages and disadvantages of existing models. Secondly, the strengths of existing digital marketing maturity models, helps to identify the main characteristics and the structure of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model. The research findings indicate that only one out of three analyzed models could be used as a separate tool. This study is among the first examining the use of maturity models in digital marketing. It helps businesses to choose between the existing digital marketing models, the most effective one. Moreover, it creates a base for future research on digital marketing maturity models. This study contributes to the emerging B2B digital marketing literature by providing a SWOT analysis of the existing digital marketing maturity models and suggesting a structure and main characteristics of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model.Keywords: B2B digital marketing strategy, digital marketing, digital marketing maturity model, SWOT analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3457531 Energy Models for Analyzing the Economic Wide Impact of the Environmental Policies
Authors: Majdi M. Alomari, Nafesah I. Alshdaifat, Mohammad S. Widyan
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Different countries have introduced different schemes and policies to counter global warming. The rationale behind the proposed policies and the potential barriers to successful implementation of the policies adopted by the countries were analyzed and estimated based on different models. It is argued that these models enhance the transparency and provide a better understanding to the policy makers. However, these models are underpinned with several structural and baseline assumptions. These assumptions, modeling features and future prediction of emission reductions and other implication such as cost and benefits of a transition to a low-carbon economy and its economy wide impacts were discussed. On the other hand, there are potential barriers in the form political, financial, and cultural and many others that pose a threat to the mitigation options.Keywords: energy models, environmental policy instruments, mitigating CO2 emission, economic wide impact
Procedia PDF Downloads 5247530 Gaits Stability Analysis for a Pneumatic Quadruped Robot Using Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Soofiyan Atar, Adil Shaikh, Sahil Rajpurkar, Pragnesh Bhalala, Aniket Desai, Irfan Siddavatam
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Deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) algorithms leverage the symbolic power of complex controllers by automating it by mapping sensory inputs to low-level actions. Deep RL eliminates the complex robot dynamics with minimal engineering. Deep RL provides high-risk involvement by directly implementing it in real-world scenarios and also high sensitivity towards hyperparameters. Tuning of hyperparameters on a pneumatic quadruped robot becomes very expensive through trial-and-error learning. This paper presents an automated learning control for a pneumatic quadruped robot using sample efficient deep Q learning, enabling minimal tuning and very few trials to learn the neural network. Long training hours may degrade the pneumatic cylinder due to jerk actions originated through stochastic weights. We applied this method to the pneumatic quadruped robot, which resulted in a hopping gait. In our process, we eliminated the use of a simulator and acquired a stable gait. This approach evolves so that the resultant gait matures more sturdy towards any stochastic changes in the environment. We further show that our algorithm performed very well as compared to programmed gait using robot dynamics.Keywords: model-based reinforcement learning, gait stability, supervised learning, pneumatic quadruped
Procedia PDF Downloads 3167529 Operating Speed Models on Tangent Sections of Two-Lane Rural Roads
Authors: Dražen Cvitanić, Biljana Maljković
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This paper presents models for predicting operating speeds on tangent sections of two-lane rural roads developed on continuous speed data. The data corresponds to 20 drivers of different ages and driving experiences, driving their own cars along an 18 km long section of a state road. The data were first used for determination of maximum operating speeds on tangents and their comparison with speeds in the middle of tangents i.e. speed data used in most of operating speed studies. Analysis of continuous speed data indicated that the spot speed data are not reliable indicators of relevant speeds. After that, operating speed models for tangent sections were developed. There was no significant difference between models developed using speed data in the middle of tangent sections and models developed using maximum operating speeds on tangent sections. All developed models have higher coefficient of determination then models developed on spot speed data. Thus, it can be concluded that the method of measuring has more significant impact on the quality of operating speed model than the location of measurement.Keywords: operating speed, continuous speed data, tangent sections, spot speed, consistency
Procedia PDF Downloads 4527528 Steady-State Behavior of a Multi-Phase M/M/1 Queue in Random Evolution Subject to Catastrophe Failure
Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan
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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure
Procedia PDF Downloads 3287527 Control-Oriented Enhanced Zero-Dimensional Two-Zone Combustion Modelling of Internal Combustion Engines
Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl
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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine
Procedia PDF Downloads 3417526 Corporate Governance and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence from India
Authors: G. C. Surya Bahadur, Ranjana Kothari
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The paper attempts to analyze linkages between corporate governance and firm performance in India. The study employs a panel data of 50 Nifty companies from 2008 to 2012. Using LSDV panel data model and 2SLS model the study reveals that that good corporate governance practices adopted by companies is positively related with financial performance. Board independence, number of board committees and executive compensation are found to have positive relationship while ownership by promoters and financial leverage have negative relationship with performance. There is existence of bi-directional relationship between corporate governance and financial performance. Companies with sound financial performance are more likely to conform to corporate governance norms and standards and implement sound corporate governance system. The findings indicate that companies can enhance business performance and sustainability by embracing sound corporate governance practices.Keywords: board structure, corporate governance, executive compensation, ownership structure
Procedia PDF Downloads 4757525 Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Fracture Mechanism in Paintings on Wood
Authors: Mohammad Jamalabadi, Noemi Zabari, Lukasz Bratasz
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Panel paintings -complex multi-layer structures consisting of wood support and a paint layer composed of a preparatory layer of gesso, paints, and varnishes- are among the category of cultural objects most vulnerable to relative humidity fluctuations and frequently found in museum collections. The current environmental specifications in museums have been derived using the criterion of crack initiation in an undamaged, usually new gesso layer laid on wood. In reality, historical paintings exhibit complex crack patterns called craquelures. The present paper analyses the structural response of a paint layer with a virtual network of rectangular cracks under environmental loadings using a three-dimensional model of a panel painting. Two modes of loading are considered -one induced by one-dimensional moisture response of wood support, termed the tangential loading, and the other isotropic induced by drying shrinkage of the gesso layer. The superposition of the two modes is also analysed. The modelling showed that minimum distances between cracks parallel to the wood grain depended on the gesso stiffness under the tangential loading. In spite of a non-zero Poisson’s ratio, gesso cracks perpendicular to the wood grain could not be generated by the moisture response of wood support. The isotropic drying shrinkage of gesso produced cracks that were almost evenly spaced in both directions. The modelling results were cross-checked with crack patterns obtained on a mock-up of a panel painting exposed to a number of extreme environmental variations in an environmental chamber.Keywords: fracture saturation, surface cracking, paintings on wood, wood panels
Procedia PDF Downloads 2677524 The Ever-Changing Connection Among Banks and Insurers: An Examination of the Financial Standing of the Financial System
Authors: Iqra Ali
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This study uses panel Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to analyses the dynamic link between banking and insurance activities based on the asset size of the insurance industry for 73 countries between 1980 and 2014. Assets in the insurance industry and banking activities usually have a Granger causal link, according to panel Granger-causality tests. Impulse response analyses for the entire sample show that the size of insurance assets responds favorably to a shock to the liquid liabilities and deposits of the financial system but negatively to a shock to deposit money bank assets and private credit offered by commercial banks, other financial institutions, and deposit banks. While the findings for middle- and low-income nations varied significantly, the observations for high-income countries are essentially the same. Furthermore, we find that there is a substantial interplay between banking and insurance activity in civil law nations as opposed to common law ones.Keywords: vector autoregression, banking, insurance, Granger-causality
Procedia PDF Downloads 87523 Solar Cell Packed and Insulator Fused Panels for Efficient Cooling in Cubesat and Satellites
Authors: Anand K. Vinu, Vaishnav Vimal, Sasi Gopalan
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All spacecraft components have a range of allowable temperatures that must be maintained to meet survival and operational requirements during all mission phases. Due to heat absorption, transfer, and emission on one side, the satellite surface presents an asymmetric temperature distribution and causes a change in momentum, which can manifest in spinning and non-spinning satellites in different manners. This problem can cause orbital decays in satellites which, if not corrected, will interfere with its primary objective. The thermal analysis of any satellite requires data from the power budget for each of the components used. This is because each of the components has different power requirements, and they are used at specific times in an orbit. There are three different cases that are run, one is the worst operational hot case, the other one is the worst non-operational cold case, and finally, the operational cold case. Sunlight is a major source of heating that takes place on the satellite. The way in which it affects the spacecraft depends on the distance from the Sun. Any part of a spacecraft or satellite facing the Sun will absorb heat (a net gain), and any facing away will radiate heat (a net loss). We can use the state-of-the-art foldable hybrid insulator/radiator panel. When the panels are opened, that particular side acts as a radiator for dissipating the heat. Here the insulator, in our case, the aerogel, is sandwiched with solar cells and radiator fins (solar cells outside and radiator fins inside). Each insulated side panel can be opened and closed using actuators depending on the telemetry data of the CubeSat. The opening and closing of the panels are dependent on the special code designed for this particular application, where the computer calculates where the Sun is relative to the satellites. According to the data obtained from the sensors, the computer decides which panel to open and by how many degrees. For example, if the panels open 180 degrees, the solar panels will directly face the Sun, in turn increasing the current generator of that particular panel. One example is when one of the corners of the CubeSat is facing or if more than one side is having a considerable amount of sun rays incident on it. Then the code will analyze the optimum opening angle for each panel and adjust accordingly. Another means of cooling is the passive way of cooling. It is the most suitable system for a CubeSat because of its limited power budget constraints, low mass requirements, and less complex design. Other than this fact, it also has other advantages in terms of reliability and cost. One of the passive means is to make the whole chase act as a heat sink. For this, we can make the entire chase out of heat pipes and connect the heat source to this chase with a thermal strap that transfers the heat to the chassis.Keywords: passive cooling, CubeSat, efficiency, satellite, stationary satellite
Procedia PDF Downloads 1007522 Numerical Investigation of Thermal Energy Storage Panel Using Nanoparticle Enhanced Phase Change Material for Micro-Satellites
Authors: Jelvin Tom Sebastian, Vinod Yeldho Baby
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In space, electronic devices are constantly attacked with radiation, which causes certain parts to fail or behave in unpredictable ways. To advance the thermal controllability for microsatellites, we need a new approach and thermal control system that is smaller than that on conventional satellites and that demand no electric power. Heat exchange inside the microsatellites is not that easy as conventional satellites due to the smaller size. With slight mass gain and no electric power, accommodating heat using phase change materials (PCMs) is a strong candidate for solving micro satellites' thermal difficulty. In other words, PCMs can absorb or produce heat in the form of latent heat, changing their phase and minimalizing the temperature fluctuation around the phase change point. The main restriction for these systems is thermal conductivity weakness of common PCMs. As PCM is having low thermal conductivity, it increases the melting and solidification time, which is not suitable for specific application like electronic cooling. In order to increase the thermal conductivity nanoparticles are introduced. Adding the nanoparticles in base PCM increases the thermal conductivity. Increase in weight concentration increases the thermal conductivity. This paper numerically investigates the thermal energy storage panel with nanoparticle enhanced phase change material. Silver nanostructure have increased the thermal properties of the base PCM, eicosane. Different weight concentration (1, 2, 3.5, 5, 6.5, 8, 10%) of silver enhanced phase change material was considered. Both steady state and transient analysis was performed to compare the characteristics of nanoparticle enhanced phase material at different heat loads. Results showed that in steady state, the temperature near the front panel reduced and temperature on NePCM panel increased as the weight concentration increased. With the increase in thermal conductivity more heat was absorbed into the NePCM panel. In transient analysis, it was found that the effect of nanoparticle concentration on maximum temperature of the system was reduced as the melting point of the material reduced with increase in weight concentration. But for the heat load of maximum 20W, the model with NePCM did not attain the melting point temperature. Therefore it showed that the model with NePCM is capable of holding more heat load. In order to study the heat load capacity double the load is given, maximum of 40W was given as first half of the cycle and the other is given constant OW. Higher temperature was obtained comparing the other heat load. The panel maintained a constant temperature for a long duration according to the NePCM melting point. In both the analysis, the uniformity of temperature of the TESP was shown. Using Ag-NePCM it allows maintaining a constant peak temperature near the melting point. Therefore, by altering the weight concentration of the Ag-NePCM it is possible to create an optimum operating temperature required for the effective working of the electronics components.Keywords: carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer, micro/nano-satellite, nanoparticle phase change material, thermal energy storage
Procedia PDF Downloads 2047521 Modeling of Single Bay Precast Residential House Using Ruaumoko 2D Program
Authors: N. H. Hamid, N. M. Mohamed, S. A. Anuar
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Precast residential houses are normally constructed in Malaysia using precast shear-key wall panel and precast wall panel are designed using BS8110 where there is no provision for earthquake. However, the safety of this house under moderate and strong earthquake is still questionable. Consequently, the full-scale of residential house are designed, constructed, tested and analyzed under in-plane lateral cyclic loading. Hysteresis loops are plotted based on the experimental work and compared with modeling of hysteresis loops using HYSTERES in RUAUMOKO 2D program. Modified Takeda hysteresis model is chosen to behave a similar pattern with experimental work. This program will display the earthquake excitations, spectral displacements, pseudo spectral acceleration, and deformation shape of the structure. It can be concluded that this building is suffering severe cracks and damage under moderate and severe earthquake.Keywords: precast shear-key, hysteresis loops, spectral displacements, deformation shape
Procedia PDF Downloads 4567520 A Comparison between Artificial Neural Network Prediction Models for Coronal Hole Related High Speed Streams
Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous
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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams
Procedia PDF Downloads 887519 Causality Channels between Corruption and Democracy: A Threshold Non-Linear Analysis
Authors: Khalid Sekkat, Fredj Fhima, Ridha Nouira
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This paper focuses on three main limitations of the literature regarding the impact of corruption on democracy. These limitations relate to the distinction between causality and correlation, the components of democracy underlying the impact and the shape of the relationship between corruption and democracy. The study uses recent developments in panel data causality econometrics, breaks democracy down into different components, and examines the types of the relationship. The results show that Control of Corruption leads to a higher quality of democracy. Regarding the estimated coefficients of the components of democracy, they are significant at the 1% level, and their signs and levels are in accordance with expectations except in a few cases. Overall, the results add to the literature in three respects: i). corruption has a causal effect on democracy and, hence, single equation estimation may pose a problem, ii) the assumption of the linearity of the relationships between control of corruption and democracy is also possibly problematic, and iii) the channels of transmission of the effects of corruption on democracy can be diverse. Disentangling them is useful from a policy perspective.Keywords: corruption, governance, causality, threshold models
Procedia PDF Downloads 477518 Frailty Patterns in the US and Implications for Long-Term Care
Authors: Joelle Fong
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Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health
Procedia PDF Downloads 2457517 Superiority of High Frequency Based Volatility Models: Empirical Evidence from an Emerging Market
Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin
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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data
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