Search results for: fuzzy model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 16838

Search results for: fuzzy model

12128 Determining the Relationship Between Maternal Stress and Depression and Child Obesity: The Mediating Role of Maternal Self-efficacy

Authors: Alireza Monzavi Chaleshtori, Mahnaz Aliakbari Dehkordi, Maryam Aliakbari, Solmaz Seyed Mostafaii

Abstract:

Objective: Considering the growing obesity among children and the role of mother's psychological factors as well as the need to prevent childhood obesity, this study aimed to investigate the mediating role of mother's self-efficacy in the relationship between mother's stress and depression and child obesity. Method: For this purpose, in a descriptive-correlation study, 222 mothers and children aged 1 to 5 years in Tehran, who had the opportunity to answer an online questionnaire, were selected by random sampling and to the depression scales of the Kroenke and Spitzer Patient Health Questionnaire, Cohen's stress and Self-efficacy of Berkeley mothers answered. Pearson correlation test and path analysis were used for data analysis. Findings: The findings showed that maternal depression had an indirect and significant effect on child obesity, and the effect of stress and depression on child obesity was indirect and non-significant. Therefore, the model has a good fit with the research data, and stress and depression indirectly predicted child obesity with the mediating role of self-efficacy. Conclusion: The hypothesized model tested based on mother's stress and depression with the mediating role of mother's self-efficacy was a good model in explaining the prediction of child obesity. Based on the findings of this research, a practical framework can be provided to explain the psychological factors of the mother in relation to child obesity and its treatment.

Keywords: stress, self-efficacy, child obesity, depression

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
12127 Comparative Study and Parallel Implementation of Stochastic Models for Pricing of European Options Portfolios using Monte Carlo Methods

Authors: Vinayak Bassi, Rajpreet Singh

Abstract:

Over the years, with the emergence of sophisticated computers and algorithms, finance has been quantified using computational prowess. Asset valuation has been one of the key components of quantitative finance. In fact, it has become one of the embryonic steps in determining risk related to a portfolio, the main goal of quantitative finance. This study comprises a drawing comparison between valuation output generated by two stochastic dynamic models, namely Black-Scholes and Dupire’s bi-dimensionality model. Both of these models are formulated for computing the valuation function for a portfolio of European options using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although Monte Carlo algorithms have a slower convergence rate than calculus-based simulation techniques (like FDM), they work quite effectively over high-dimensional dynamic models. A fidelity gap is analyzed between the static (historical) and stochastic inputs for a sample portfolio of underlying assets. In order to enhance the performance efficiency of the model, the study emphasized the use of variable reduction methods and customizing random number generators to implement parallelization. An attempt has been made to further implement the Dupire’s model on a GPU to achieve higher computational performance. Furthermore, ideas have been discussed around the performance enhancement and bottleneck identification related to the implementation of options-pricing models on GPUs.

Keywords: monte carlo, stochastic models, computational finance, parallel programming, scientific computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
12126 Development of Vapor Absorption Refrigeration System for Mini-Bus Car’s Air Conditioning: A Two-Fluid Model

Authors: Yoftahe Nigussie

Abstract:

This research explores the implementation of a vapor absorption refrigeration system (VARS) in mini-bus cars to enhance air conditioning efficiency. The conventional vapor compression refrigeration system (VCRS) in vehicles relies on mechanical work from the engine, leading to increased fuel consumption. The proposed VARS aims to utilize waste heat and exhaust gas from the internal combustion engine to cool the mini-bus cabin, thereby reducing fuel consumption and atmospheric pollution. The project involves two models: Model 1, a two-fluid vapor absorption system (VAS), and Model 2, a three-fluid VAS. Model 1 uses ammonia (NH₃) and water (H₂O) as refrigerants, where water absorbs ammonia rapidly, producing a cooling effect. The absorption cycle operates on the principle that absorbing ammonia in water decreases vapor pressure. The ammonia-water solution undergoes cycles of desorption, condensation, expansion, and absorption, facilitated by a generator, condenser, expansion valve, and absorber. The objectives of this research include reducing atmospheric pollution, minimizing air conditioning maintenance costs, lowering capital costs, enhancing fuel economy, and eliminating the need for a compressor. The comparison between vapor absorption and compression systems reveals advantages such as smoother operation, fewer moving parts, and the ability to work at lower evaporator pressures without affecting the Coefficient of Performance (COP). The proposed VARS demonstrates potential benefits for mini-bus air conditioning systems, providing a sustainable and energy-efficient alternative. By utilizing waste heat and exhaust gas, this system contributes to environmental preservation while addressing economic considerations for vehicle owners. Further research and development in this area could lead to the widespread adoption of vapor absorption technology in automotive air conditioning systems.

Keywords: room, zone, space, thermal resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 58
12125 Parameter Interactions in the Cumulative Prospect Theory: Fitting the Binary Choice Experiment Data

Authors: Elzbieta Babula, Juhyun Park

Abstract:

Tversky and Kahneman’s cumulative prospect theory assumes symmetric probability cumulation with regard to the reference point within decision weights. Theoretically, this model should be invariant under the change of the direction of probability cumulation. In the present study, this phenomenon is being investigated by creating a reference model that allows verifying the parameter interactions in the cumulative prospect theory specifications. The simultaneous parametric fitting of utility and weighting functions is applied to binary choice data from the experiment. The results show that the flexibility of the probability weighting function is a crucial characteristic allowing to prevent parameter interactions while estimating cumulative prospect theory.

Keywords: binary choice experiment, cumulative prospect theory, decision weights, parameter interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
12124 Structural Equation Modelling Based Approach to Integrate Customers and Suppliers with Internal Practices for Lean Manufacturing Implementation in the Indian Context

Authors: Protik Basu, Indranil Ghosh, Pranab K. Dan

Abstract:

Lean management is an integrated socio-technical system to bring about a competitive state in an organization. The purpose of this paper is to explore and integrate the role of customers and suppliers with the internal practices of the Indian manufacturing industries towards successful implementation of lean manufacturing (LM). An extensive literature survey is carried out. An attempt is made to build an exhaustive list of all the input manifests related to customers, suppliers and internal practices necessary for LM implementation, coupled with a similar exhaustive list of the benefits accrued from its successful implementation. A structural model is thus conceptualized, which is empirically validated based on the data from the Indian manufacturing sector. With the current impetus on developing the industrial sector, the Government of India recently introduced the Lean Manufacturing Competitiveness Scheme that aims to increase competitiveness with the help of lean concepts. There is a huge scope to enrich the Indian industries with the lean benefits, the implementation status being quite low. Hardly any survey-based empirical study in India has been found to integrate customers and suppliers with the internal processes towards successful LM implementation. This empirical research is thus carried out in the Indian manufacturing industries. The basic steps of the research methodology followed in this research are the identification of input and output manifest variables and latent constructs, model proposition and hypotheses development, development of survey instrument, sampling and data collection and model validation (exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling). The analysis reveals six key input constructs and three output constructs, indicating that these constructs should act in unison to maximize the benefits of implementing lean. The structural model presented in this paper may be treated as a guide to integrating customers and suppliers with internal practices to successfully implement lean. Integrating customers and suppliers with internal practices into a unified, coherent manufacturing system will lead to an optimum utilization of resources. This work is one of the very first researches to have a survey-based empirical analysis of the role of customers, suppliers and internal practices of the Indian manufacturing sector towards an effective lean implementation.

Keywords: customer management, internal manufacturing practices, lean benefits, lean implementation, lean manufacturing, structural model, supplier management

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
12123 ISAR Imaging and Tracking Algorithm for Maneuvering Non-ellipsoidal Extended Objects Using Jump Markov Systems

Authors: Mohamed Barbary, Mohamed H. Abd El-azeem

Abstract:

Maneuvering non-ellipsoidal extended object tracking (M-NEOT) using high-resolution inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) observations is gaining momentum recently. This work presents a new robust implementation of the Jump Markov (JM) multi-Bernoulli (MB) filter for M-NEOT, where the M-NEOT’s ISAR observations are characterized using a skewed (SK) non-symmetrically normal distribution. To cope with the possible abrupt change of kinematic state, extension, and observation distribution over an extended object when a target maneuvers, a multiple model technique is represented based on an MB-track-before-detect (TBD) filter supported by SK-sub-random matrix model (RMM) or sub-ellipses framework. Simulation results demonstrate this remarkable impact.

Keywords: maneuvering extended objects, ISAR, skewed normal distribution, sub-RMM, JM-MB-TBD filter

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12122 CFD Simulation of Spacer Effect on Turbulent Mixing Phenomena in Sub Channels of Boiling Nuclear Assemblies

Authors: Shashi Kant Verma, S. L. Sinha, D. K. Chandraker

Abstract:

Numerical simulations of selected subchannel tracer (Potassium Nitrate) based experiments have been performed to study the capabilities of state-of-the-art of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methodology can be useful for investigating the spacer effect on turbulent mixing to predict turbulent flow behavior such as Dimensionless mixing scalar distributions, radial velocity and vortices in the nuclear fuel assembly. A Gibson and Launder (GL) Reynolds stress model (RSM) has been selected as the primary turbulence model to be applied for the simulation case as it has been previously found reasonably accurate to predict flows inside rod bundles. As a comparison, the case is also simulated using a standard k-ε turbulence model that is widely used in industry. Despite being an isotropic turbulence model, it has also been used in the modeling of flow in rod bundles and to produce lateral velocities after thorough mixing of coolant fairly. Both these models have been solved numerically to find out fully developed isothermal turbulent flow in a 30º segment of a 54-rod bundle. Numerical simulation has been carried out for the study of natural mixing of a Tracer (Passive scalar) to characterize the growth of turbulent diffusion in an injected sub-channel and, afterwards on, cross-mixing between adjacent sub-channels. The mixing with water has been numerically studied by means of steady state CFD simulations with the commercial code STAR-CCM+. Flow enters into the computational domain through the mass inflow at the three subchannel faces. Turbulence intensity and hydraulic diameter of 1% and 5.9 mm respectively were used for the inlet. A passive scalar (Potassium nitrate) is injected through the mass fraction of 5.536 PPM at subchannel 2 (Upstream of the mixing section). Flow exited the domain through the pressure outlet boundary (0 Pa), and the reference pressure was 1 atm. Simulation results have been extracted at different locations of the mixing zone and downstream zone. The local mass fraction shows uniform mixing. The effect of the applied turbulence model is nearly negligible just before the outlet plane because the distributions look like almost identical and the flow is fully developed. On the other hand, quantitatively the dimensionless mixing scalar distributions change noticeably, which is visible in the different scale of the colour bars.

Keywords: single-phase flow, turbulent mixing, tracer, sub channel analysis

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12121 Energy Management System Based on Voltage Fluctuations Minimization for Droop-Controlled Islanded Microgrid

Authors: Zahra Majd, Mohsen Kalantar

Abstract:

Power management and voltage regulation is one of the most important issues in microgrid (MG) control and scheduling. This paper proposes a multiobjective scheduling formulation that consists of active power costs, voltage fluctuations summation, and technical constraints of MG. Furthermore, load flow and reserve constraints are considered to achieve proper voltage regulation. A modified Jacobian matrix is presented for calculating voltage variations and Mont Carlo simulation is used for generating and reducing scenarios. To convert the problem to a mixed integer linear program, a linearization procedure for nonlinear equations is presented. The proposed model is applied to a typical low-voltage MG and two different cases are investigated. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: microgrid, energy management system, voltage fluctuations, modified Jacobian matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
12120 A Study of Quality Assurance and Unit Verification Methods in Safety Critical Environment

Authors: Miklos Taliga

Abstract:

In the present case study we examined the development and testing methods of systems that contain safety-critical elements in different industrial fields. Consequentially, we observed the classical object-oriented development and testing environment, as both medical technology and automobile industry approaches the development of safety critical elements that way. Subsequently, we examined model-based development. We introduce the quality parameters that define development and testing. While taking modern agile methodology (scrum) into consideration, we examined whether and to what extent the methodologies we found fit into this environment.

Keywords: safety-critical elements, quality managent, unit verification, model base testing, agile methods, scrum, metamodel, object-oriented programming, field specific modelling, sprint, user story, UML Standard

Procedia PDF Downloads 571
12119 Role of Collaborative Cultural Model to Step on Cleaner Energy: A Case of Kathmandu City Core

Authors: Bindu Shrestha, Sudarshan R. Tiwari, Sushil B. Bajracharya

Abstract:

Urban household cooking fuel choice is highly influenced by human behavior and energy culture parameters such as cognitive norms, material culture and practices. Although these parameters have a leading role in Kathmandu for cleaner households, they are not incorporated in the city’s energy policy. This paper aims to identify trade-offs to transform resident behavior in cooking pattern towards cleaner technology from the questionnaire survey, observation, mapping, interview, and quantitative analysis. The analysis recommends implementing a Collaborative Cultural Model (CCM) for changing impact on the neighborhood from the policy level. The results showed that each household produces 439.56 kg of carbon emission each year and 20 percent used unclean technology due to low-income level. Residents who used liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as their cooking fuel suffered from an energy crisis every year that has created fuel hoarding, which ultimately creates more energy demand and carbon exposure. In conclusion, the carbon emission can be reduced by improving the residents’ energy consumption culture. It recommended the city to use holistic action of changing habits as soft power of collaboration in two-way participation approach within residents, private sectors, and government to change their energy culture and behavior in policy level.

Keywords: energy consumption pattern, collaborative cultural model, energy culture, fuel stacking

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12118 Study of Heat Transfer in the Absorber Plates of a Flat-Plate Solar Collector Using Dual-Phase-Lag Model

Authors: Yu-Ching Yang, Haw-Long Lee, Win-Jin Chang

Abstract:

The present work numerically analyzes the transient heat transfer in the absorber plates of a flat-plate solar collector based on the dual-phase-lag (DPL) heat conduction model. An efficient numerical scheme involving the hybrid application of the Laplace transform and control volume methods is used to solve the linear hyperbolic heat conduction equation. This work also examines the effect of different medium parameters on the behavior of heat transfer. Results show that, while the heat-flux phase lag induces thermal waves in the medium, the temperature-gradient phase lag smoothens the thermal waves by promoting non-Fourier diffusion-like conduction into the medium.

Keywords: absorber plates, dual-phase-lag, non-Fourier, solar collector

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12117 Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes for Computations of Flow Around Three-Dimensional Ahmed Bodies

Authors: Maryam Mirzaei, Sinisa Krajnovic´

Abstract:

The paper reports a study about the prediction of flows around simplified vehicles using Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS). Numerical simulations are performed for two simplified vehicles: A slanted-back Ahmed body at Re=30 000 and a square back Ahmed body at Re=300 000. A comparison of the resolved and modeled physical flow scales is made with corresponding LES and experimental data for a better understanding of the performance of the PANS model. The PANS model is compared for coarse and fine grid resolutions and it is indicated that even a coarse-grid PANS simulation is able to produce fairly close flow predictions to those from a well-resolved LES simulation. The results indicate the possibility of improvement of the predictions by employing a finer grid resolution.

Keywords: partially-averaged Navier-Stokes, large eddy simulation, PANS, LES, Ahmed body

Procedia PDF Downloads 574
12116 Reactivity Study on South African Calcium Based Material Using a pH-Stat and Citric Acid: A Statistical Approach

Authors: Hilary Rutto, Mbali Chiliza, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

The study on reactivity of calcined calcium-based material is very important in dry flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) process, so as to produce absorbent with high sulphur dioxide capture capacity during the hydration process. The effect of calcining temperature and time on the reactivity of calcined limestone material were investigated. In this study, the reactivity was measured using a pH stat apparatus and also confirming the result by performing citric acid reactivity test. The reactivity was calculated using the shrinking core model. Based on the experiments, a mathematical model is developed to correlate the effect of time and temperature to the reactivity of absorbent. The calcination process variables were temperature (700 -1000°C) and time (1-6 hrs). It was found that reactivity increases with an increase in time and temperature.

Keywords: reactivity, citric acid, calcination, time

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12115 Fracture Mechanics Modeling of a Shear-Cracked RC Beams Shear-Strengthened with FRP Sheets

Authors: Shahriar Shahbazpanahi, Alaleh Kamgar

Abstract:

So far, the conventional experimental and theoretical analysis in fracture mechanics have been applied to study concrete flexural- cracked beams, which are strengthened using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) composite sheets. However, there is still little knowledge about the shear capacity of a side face FRP- strengthened shear-cracked beam. A numerical analysis is herein presented to model the fracture mechanics of a four-point RC beam, with two inclined initial notch on the supports, which is strengthened with side face FRP sheets. In the present study, the shear crack is forced to conduct by using an initial notch in supports. The ABAQUS software is used to model crack propagation by conventional cohesive elements. It is observed that the FRP sheets play important roles in preventing the propagation of shear cracks.

Keywords: crack, FRP, shear, strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 539
12114 Space Weather and Earthquakes: A Case Study of Solar Flare X9.3 Class on September 6, 2017

Authors: Viktor Novikov, Yuri Ruzhin

Abstract:

The studies completed to-date on a relation of the Earth's seismicity and solar processes provide the fuzzy and contradictory results. For verification of an idea that solar flares can trigger earthquakes, we have analyzed a case of a powerful surge of solar flash activity early in September 2017 during approaching the minimum of 24th solar cycle was accompanied by significant disturbances of space weather. On September 6, 2017, a group of sunspots AR2673 generated a large solar flare of X9.3 class, the strongest flare over the past twelve years. Its explosion produced a coronal mass ejection partially directed towards the Earth. We carried out a statistical analysis of the catalogs of earthquakes USGS and EMSC for determination of the effect of solar flares on global seismic activity. New evidence of earthquake triggering due to the Sun-Earth interaction has been demonstrated by simple comparison of behavior of Earth's seismicity before and after the strong solar flare. The global number of earthquakes with magnitude of 2.5 to 5.5 within 11 days after the solar flare has increased by 30 to 100%. A possibility of electric/electromagnetic triggering of earthquake due to space weather disturbances is supported by results of field and laboratory studies, where the earthquakes (both natural and laboratory) were initiated by injection of electrical current into the Earth crust. For the specific case of artificial electric earthquake triggering the current density at a depth of earthquake, sources are comparable with estimations of a density of telluric currents induced by variation of space weather conditions due to solar flares. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by RFBR grant No. 18-05-00255.

Keywords: solar flare, earthquake activity, earthquake triggering, solar-terrestrial relations

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12113 Comparisons between Student Leaning Achievements and Their Problem Solving Skills on Stoichiometry Issue with the Think-Pair-Share Model and Stem Education Method

Authors: P. Thachitasing, N. Jansawang, W. Rakrai, T. Santiboon

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to investigate of the comparing the instructional design models between the Think-Pair-Share and Conventional Learning (5E Inquiry Model) Processes to enhance students’ learning achievements and their problem solving skills on stoichiometry issue for concerning the 2-instructional method with a sample consisted of 80 students in 2 classes at the 11th grade level in Chaturaphak Phiman Ratchadaphisek School. Students’ different learning outcomes in chemistry classes with the cluster random sampling technique were used. Instructional Methods designed with the 40-experimenl student group by Think-Pair-Share process and the 40-controlling student group by the conventional learning (5E Inquiry Model) method. These learning different groups were obtained using the 5 instruments; the 5-lesson instructional plans of Think-Pair-Share and STEM Education Method, students’ learning achievements and their problem solving skills were assessed with the pretest and posttest techniques, students’ outcomes of their instructional the Think-Pair-Share (TPSM) and the STEM Education Methods were compared. Statistically significant was differences with the paired t-test and F-test between posttest and pretest technique of the whole students in chemistry classes were found, significantly. Associations between student learning outcomes in chemistry and two methods of their learning to students’ learning achievements and their problem solving skills also were found. The use of two methods for this study is revealed that the students perceive their learning achievements to their problem solving skills to be differently learning achievements in different groups are guiding practical improvements in chemistry classrooms to assist teacher in implementing effective approaches for improving instructional methods. Students’ learning achievements of mean average scores to their controlling group with the Think-Pair-Share Model (TPSM) are lower than experimental student group for the STEM education method, evidence significantly. The E1/E2 process were revealed evidence of 82.56/80.44, and 83.02/81.65 which results based on criteria are higher than of 80/80 standard level with the IOC, consequently. The predictive efficiency (R2) values indicate that 61% and 67% and indicate that 63% and 67% of the variances in chemistry classes to their learning achievements on posttest in chemistry classes of the variances in students’ problem solving skills to their learning achievements to their chemistry classrooms on Stoichiometry issue with the posttest were attributable to their different learning outcomes for the TPSM and STEMe instructional methods.

Keywords: comparisons, students’ learning achievements, think-pare-share model (TPSM), stem education, problem solving skills, chemistry classes, stoichiometry issue

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12112 Web-Based Paperless Campus: An Approach to Reduce the Cost and Complexity of Education Administration

Authors: Yekini N. Asafe, Haastrup A. Victor, Lawal N. Olawale, Okikiola F. Mercy

Abstract:

Recent increase in access to personal computer and networking systems have made it feasible to perform much of cumbersome and costly paper-based administration in all organization. Desktop computers, networking systems, high capacity storage devices and telecommunications system is currently allowing the transfer of various format of data to be processed, stored and dissemination for the purpose of decision making. Going paperless is more of benefits compare to full paper-based office. This paper proposed a model for design and implementation of e-administration system (paperless campus) for an institution of learning. If this model is design and implemented it will reduced cost and complexity of educational administration also eliminate menaces and environmental hazards attributed to paper-based administration within schools and colleges.

Keywords: e-administration, educational administration, paperless campus, paper-based administration

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
12111 Analysis of Hydraulic Velocity in Fishway Using CCHE2D Model

Authors: Amir Abbas Kamanbedast, Masood Mohammad Shafipor, Amir Ghotboddin

Abstract:

Fish way is a structure that in generally using to migrate to the place where they are spawned and is made near the spillway. Preventing fish spawning or migrating to their original place by fishway structures can affect their lives in the river or even erase one access to intended environment. The main objective of these structures is establishing a safe path for fish migration. In the present study first the hydraulic specifications of Hamidieh diversion dam were assessed and then it is problems were evaluated. In this study the dimensions of the fish way, including velocity of pools, were evaluated by CCHE2D software. Then by change slope in this structure streamlines like velocity in the pools were measured. For calibration can be use measuring local velocities in some pools. The information can be seen the fishway width of 0.3 m has minimum rate of descent in the total number of structures (pools and overflow).

Keywords: fishway, velocity, Hamidieh-Diversion Dam, CCHE2D model

Procedia PDF Downloads 473
12110 Foundation of the Information Model for Connected-Cars

Authors: Hae-Won Seo, Yong-Gu Lee

Abstract:

Recent progress in the next generation of automobile technology is geared towards incorporating information technology into cars. Collectively called smart cars are bringing intelligence to cars that provides comfort, convenience and safety. A branch of smart cars is connected-car system. The key concept in connected-cars is the sharing of driving information among cars through decentralized manner enabling collective intelligence. This paper proposes a foundation of the information model that is necessary to define the driving information for smart-cars. Road conditions are modeled through a unique data structure that unambiguously represent the time variant traffics in the streets. Additionally, the modeled data structure is exemplified in a navigational scenario and usage using UML. Optimal driving route searching is also discussed using the proposed data structure in a dynamically changing road conditions.

Keywords: connected-car, data modeling, route planning, navigation system

Procedia PDF Downloads 358
12109 Towards a Model of Support in the Areas of Services of Educational Assistance and Tutoring in Middle Education in Mexico

Authors: Margarita Zavala, Julio Rolón, Gabriel Chavira, José González, Jorge Orozco, Roberto Pichardo

Abstract:

Adolescence is a neuralgic stage in the formation of every human being, generally at this stage is when the middle school level is studied. In 2006 in Mexico incorporated “mentoring" space to assist students in their integration and participation in life. In public middle schools, is sometimes difficult to be aware of situations that affect students because of the number of them and traditional records management. Whit this they lose the opportunity to provide timely support as a preventive way. In order to provide this support, it is required to know the students by detecting the relevant information that has greater impact on their learning process. This research is looking to check if it is possible to identify student’s relevant information to detect when it is at risk, and then to propose a model to manage in a proper way such information.

Keywords: adolescence, mentoring, middle school students, mentoring system support

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12108 New Machine Learning Optimization Approach Based on Input Variables Disposition Applied for Time Series Prediction

Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

Abstract:

One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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12107 The Attitude and Intention to Purchase Halal Cosmetic Products: A Study of Muslim Consumers in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdulwahab S. Shmailan

Abstract:

The links between the halalan tayyiban dimensions and their impact on the propensity to purchase halal cosmetics in Muslim culture are investigated in this study. The information was gathered by a self-administered questionnaire survey of 207 Saudi Muslim customers using purposive sampling. The suggested model was tested using Pearson correlation coefficients and an ANOVA test. Significant and positive connections were found between halalan tayyiban dimensions, attitudes, and purchasing intent. There were also substantial changes in the study parameters depending on the respondent's work title. This is one of the first empirical tests of the halalan tayyiban, attitudes, and intention to purchase model among Saudi Muslim customers. The study offers helpful recommendations for cosmetics sector marketers as well as strategy formulation.

Keywords: cosmetics, halal cosmetics, halalan tayyiban, halal certificate, customers attitude, intention to purchase

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
12106 Simulation Research of City Bus Fuel Consumption during the CUEDC Australian Driving Cycle

Authors: P. Kacejko, M. Wendeker

Abstract:

The fuel consumption of city buses depends on a number of factors that characterize the technical properties of the bus and driver, as well as traffic conditions. This parameter related to greenhouse gas emissions is regulated by law in many countries. This applies to both fuel consumption and exhaust emissions. Simulation studies are a way to reduce the costs of optimization studies. The paper describes simulation research of fuel consumption city bus driving. Parameters of the developed model are based on experimental results obtained on chassis dynamometer test stand and road tests. The object of the study was a city bus equipped with a compression-ignition engine. The verified model was applied to simulate the behavior of a bus during the CUEDC Australian Driving Cycle. The results of the calculations showed a direct influence of driving dynamics on fuel consumption.

Keywords: Australian Driving Cycle, city bus, diesel engine, fuel consumption

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12105 The Effect of Inlet Baffle Position in Improving the Efficiency of Oil and Water Gravity Separator Tanks

Authors: Haitham A. Hussein, Rozi Abdullah, Issa Saket, Md. Azlin

Abstract:

The gravitational effect has been extensively applied to separate oil from water in water and wastewater treatment systems. The maximum oil globules removal efficiency is improved by obtaining the best flow uniformity in separator tanks. This study used 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the effect of different inlet baffle positions inside the separator tank. Laboratory experiment has been conducted, and the measured velocity fields which were by Nortek Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) are used to verify the CFD model. Computational investigation results indicated that the construction of an inlet baffle in a suitable location provides the minimum recirculation zone volume, creates the best flow uniformity, and dissipates kinetic energy in the oil and water separator tank. Useful formulas were predicted to design the oil and water separator tanks geometry based on an experimental model.

Keywords: oil/water separator tanks, inlet baffles, CFD, VOF

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12104 Highly Glazed Office Spaces: Simulated Visual Comfort vs Real User Experiences

Authors: Zahra Hamedani, Ebrahim Solgi, Henry Skates, Gillian Isoardi

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Daylighting plays a pivotal role in promoting productivity and user satisfaction in office spaces. There is an ongoing trend in designing office buildings with a high proportion of glazing which relatively increases the risk of high visual discomfort. Providing a more realistic lighting analysis can be of high value at the early stages of building design when necessary changes can be made at a very low cost. This holistic approach can be achieved by incorporating subjective evaluation and user behaviour in computer simulation and provide a comprehensive lighting analysis. In this research, a detailed computer simulation model has been made using Radiance and Daysim. Afterwards, this model was validated by measurements and user feedback. The case study building is the school of science at Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, which features highly glazed office spaces. In this paper, the visual comfort predicted by the model is compared with a preliminary survey of the building users to evaluate how user behaviour such as desk position, orientation selection, and user movement caused by daylight changes and other visual variations can inform perceptions of visual comfort. This work supports preliminary design analysis of visual comfort incorporating the effects of gaze shift patterns and views with the goal of designing effective layout for office spaces.

Keywords: lighting simulation, office buildings, user behaviour, validation, visual comfort

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12103 The Relevance of the U-Shaped Learning Model to the Acquisition of the Difference between C'est and Il Est in the English Learners of French Context

Authors: Pooja Booluck

Abstract:

A U-shaped learning curve entails a three-step process: a good performance followed by a bad performance followed by a good performance again. U-shaped curves have been observed not only in language acquisition but also in various fields such as temperature face recognition object permanence to name a few. Building on previous studies of the curve child language acquisition and Second Language Acquisition this empirical study seeks to investigate the relevance of the U-shaped learning model to the acquisition of the difference between cest and il est in the English Learners of French context. The present study was developed to assess whether older learners of French in the ELF context follow the same acquisition pattern. The empirical study was conducted on 15 English learners of French which lasted six weeks. Compositions and questionnaires were collected from each subject at three time intervals (after one week after three weeks after six weeks) after which students work were graded as being either correct or incorrect. The data indicates that there is evidence of a U-shaped learning curve in the acquisition of cest and il est and students did follow the same acquisition pattern as children in regards to rote-learned terms and subject clitics. This paper also discusses the need to introduce modules on U-shaped learning curve in teaching curriculum as many teachers are unaware of the trajectory learners undertake while acquiring core components in grammar. In addition this study also addresses the need to conduct more research on the acquisition of rote-learned terms and subject clitics in SLA.

Keywords: child language acquisition, rote-learning, subject clitics, u-shaped learning model

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12102 Neighborhood Linking Social Capital as a Predictor of Drug Abuse: A Swedish National Cohort Study

Authors: X. Li, J. Sundquist, C. Sjöstedt, M. Winkleby, K. S. Kendler, K. Sundquist

Abstract:

Aims: This study examines the association between the incidence of drug abuse (DA) and linking (communal) social capital, a theoretical concept describing the amount of trust between individuals and societal institutions. Methods: We present results from an 8-year population-based cohort study that followed all residents in Sweden, aged 15-44, from 2003 through 2010, for a total of 1,700,896 men and 1,642,798 women. Social capital was conceptualized as the proportion of people in a geographically defined neighborhood who voted in local government elections. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and between-neighborhood variance. Results: We found robust associations between linking social capital (scored as a three level variable) and DA in men and women. For men, the OR for DA in the crude model was 2.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.21] for those living in areas with the lowest vs. highest level of social capital. After accounting for neighborhood-level deprivation, the OR fell to 1.59 (1.51-1-68), indicating that neighborhood deprivation lies in the pathway between linking social capital and DA. The ORs remained significant after accounting for age, sex, family income, marital status, country of birth, education level, and region of residence, and after further accounting for comorbidities and family history of comorbidities and family history of DA. For women, the OR decreased from 2.15 (2.03-2.27) in the crude model to 1.31 (1.22-1.40) in the final model, adjusted for multiple neighborhood-level and individual-level variables. Conclusions: Our study suggests that low linking social capital may have important independent effects on DA.

Keywords: drug abuse, social linking capital, environment, family

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12101 Commodity Price Shocks and Monetary Policy

Authors: Faisal Algosair

Abstract:

We examine the role of monetary policy in the presence of commodity price shocks using a Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with price and wage rigidities. The model characterizes a commodity exporter by its degree of export diversification, and explores the following monetary regimes: flexible domestic inflation targeting; flexible Consumer Price Index inflation targeting; exchange rate peg; and optimal rule. An increase in the degree of diversification is found to mitigate responses to commodity shocks. The welfare comparison suggests that a flexible exchange rate regime under the optimal rule is preferred to an exchange rate peg. However, monetary policy provides limited stabilization effects in an economy with low degree of export diversification.

Keywords: business cycle, commodity price, exchange rate, global financial cycle

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12100 Using Predictive Analytics to Identify First-Year Engineering Students at Risk of Failing

Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

Abstract:

Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

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12099 Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Heating and Cooling Loads of a Residential Building

Authors: Aaditya U. Jhamb

Abstract:

Due to the current energy crisis that many countries are battling, energy-efficient buildings are the subject of extensive research in the modern technological era because of growing worries about energy consumption and its effects on the environment. The paper explores 8 factors that help determine energy efficiency for a building: (relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, and glazing area distribution), with Tsanas and Xifara providing a dataset. The data set employed 768 different residential building models to anticipate heating and cooling loads with a low mean squared error. By optimizing these characteristics, machine learning algorithms may assess and properly forecast a building's heating and cooling loads, lowering energy usage while increasing the quality of people's lives. As a result, the paper studied the magnitude of the correlation between these input factors and the two output variables using various statistical methods of analysis after determining which input variable was most closely associated with the output loads. The most conclusive model was the Decision Tree Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 0.258, whilst the least definitive model was the Isotonic Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 21.68. This paper also investigated the KNN Regressor and the Linear Regression, which had to mean squared errors of 3.349 and 18.141, respectively. In conclusion, the model, given the 8 input variables, was able to predict the heating and cooling loads of a residential building accurately and precisely.

Keywords: energy efficient buildings, heating load, cooling load, machine learning models

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