Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: Rahisham Abd Rahman

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In this paper, a nonlinear pollution model has been proposed to compute electric field distribution over the polymeric insulator surface under wet contaminated conditions. A 2D axial-symmetric insulator geometry, energized with 11kV was developed and analysed using Finite Element Method (FEM). A field-dependent conductivity with simplified assumptions was established to characterize the electrical properties of the pollution layer. Comparative field studies showed that simulation of dynamic pollution model results in a more realistic field profile, offering better understanding on how the electric field behaves under wet polluted conditions.

Keywords: electric field distributions, pollution layer, dynamic model, polymeric outdoor insulators, finite element method (FEM)

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Authors: Magdi M. Nabi, Ding-Li Yu

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This paper presents a neural network based model predictive control (MPC) strategy to control a strongly exothermic reaction with complicated nonlinear kinetics given by Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor that requires a very precise temperature control to maintain product uniformity. In the benchmark scenario, the operation of the reactor must be guaranteed under various disturbing influences, e.g., changing ambient temperatures or impurity of the monomer. Such a process usually controlled by conventional cascade control, it provides a robust operation, but often lacks accuracy concerning the required strict temperature tolerances. The predictive control strategy based on the RBF neural model is applied to solve this problem to achieve set-point tracking of the reactor temperature against disturbances. The result shows that the RBF based model predictive control gives reliable result in the presence of some disturbances and keeps the reactor temperature within a tight tolerance range around the desired reaction temperature.

Keywords: Chylla-Haase reactor, RBF neural network modelling, model predictive control, semi-batch reactors

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Authors: N. Uaphongsathorn, C. Worawong, S. Thaewpia

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Background and significance: The population is aging in Thai society, the elderly dependent is at great risk of various functional, psychological, and socio-economic problems as well as less access to health care. They may require long term care at home to maximize their functional abilities and activities of daily living and to improve their quality of life during their own age. Therefore, there is a need to develop a home-based long term care to meet the long term care needs of elders dependent. Methods: The research purpose was to develop long term care model among the elderly dependent in Chaiyaphum province in Northeast region of Thailand. Action Research which is composing of planning, action, observation, and reflection phases was used. Research was carried out for 12 months in all sub-districts of 6 districts in Chaiyaphum province. Participants (N = 1,010) participating in the processes of model development were comprised of 3 groups: a) a total of 110 health care professionals, b) a total of 600 health volunteers and family caregivers and c) a total of 300 the elderly dependent with chronically medical illnesses or disabilities. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyze data. Findings: Results have shown that the most common health problems among elders dependent with physical disabilities to function independently were cardiovascular disease, dementia, and traffic injuries. The development of home-based long term care model among elders dependent in Chaiyaphum province was composed of six key steps. They are: a) initiating policies supporting formal and informal caregivers for the elder dependent in all sub-districts, b) building network and multidisciplinary team, c) developing 3-day care manager training program and 3-day care provider training program d) training case managers and care providers for the elderly dependent through team and action learning, e) assessing, planning and providing care based on care individual’s needs of the elderly dependent, and f) sharing experiences for good practice and innovation for long term care at homes in district urban and rural areas. Among all care managers and care providers, the satisfaction level for training programs was high with a mean score of 3.98 out of 5. The elders dependent and family caregivers addressed that long term care at home could contribute to improving life’s daily activities, family relationship, health status, and quality of life. Family caregivers and volunteers have feeling a sense of personal satisfaction and experiencing providing meaningful care and support for elders dependent. Conclusion: In conclusion, a home-based long term care is important to Thai elders dependent. Care managers and care providers play a large role and responsibility to provide appropriate care to meet the elders’ needs in both urban and rural areas in Thai society. Further research could be rigorously studied with a larger group of populations in similar socio-economic and cultural contexts.

Keywords: elderly people, care manager, care provider, long term care

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Authors: Simon Ingelsten, Anton Lundberg, Vijay Shankar, Lars-Olof Landström, Örjan Johansson

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The flow in a low consistency disc refiner is simulated with the aim of identifying flow structures possibly being of importance for a future study to optimise the energy efficiency in refining processes. A simplified flow geometry is used, where a single groove of a refiner disc is modelled. Two different fibre models are used to simulate turbulent fibre suspension flow in the groove. The first model is a Bingham viscoplastic fluid model where the fibre suspension is treated as a non-Newtonian fluid with a yield stress. The second model is a new model proposed in a recent study where the suspended fibres effect on flow is accounted for through a modelled orientation distribution function (ODF). Both models yielded similar results with small differences. Certain flow characteristics that were expected and that was found in the literature were identified. Some of these flow characteristics may be of importance in a future process to optimise the refiner geometry to increase the energy efficiency. Further study and a more detailed flow model is; however, needed in order for the simulations to yield results valid for quantitative use in such an optimisation study. An outline of the next steps in such a study is proposed.

Keywords: disc refiner, fibre flow, sustainability, turbulence modelling

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Authors: G. B. Hong

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Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium (LLE) data are measured for the ternary mixtures of water + 1-butanol + butyl acetate and quaternary mixtures of water + 1-butanol + butyl acetate + glycerol at atmospheric pressure at 313.15 K. In addition, isothermal Vapor–Liquid–Liquid Equilibrium (VLLE) data are determined experimentally at 333.15 K. The region of heterogeneity is found to increase as the hydrophilic agent (glycerol) is introduced into the aqueous mixtures. The experimental data are correlated with the NRTL model. The predicted results from the solution model with the model parameters determined from the constituent binaries are also compared with the experimental values.

Keywords: LLE, VLLE, hydrophilic agent, NRTL

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Authors: Alaa Fezai, Anuj Sharma, Wolfgang Mueller-Hirsch, André Zimmermann

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Viscoelastic materials have been widely used in the automotive industry over the last few decades with different functionalities. Besides their main application as a simple and efficient surface damping treatment, they may ensure optimal operating conditions for on-board electronics as thermal interface or sealing layers. The dynamic behavior of viscoelastic materials is generally dependent on many environmental factors, the most important being temperature and strain rate or frequency. Prior to the reliability analysis of systems including viscoelastic layers, it is, therefore, crucial to accurately predict the dynamic and lifetime behavior of these materials. This includes the identification of the dynamic material parameters under critical temperature and frequency conditions along with a precise damage localization and identification methodology. The goal of this work is twofold. The first part aims at applying an inverse viscoelastic material-characterization approach for a wide frequency range and under different temperature conditions. For this sake, dynamic measurements are carried on a single lap joint specimen using an electrodynamic shaker and an environmental chamber. The specimen consists of aluminum beams assembled to adapter plates through a viscoelastic adhesive layer. The experimental setup is reproduced in finite element (FE) simulations, and frequency response functions (FRF) are calculated. The parameters of both the generalized Maxwell model and the fractional derivatives model are identified through an optimization algorithm minimizing the difference between the simulated and the measured FRFs. The second goal of the current work is to guarantee an on-line detection of the damage, i.e., delamination in the viscoelastic bonding of the described specimen during frequency monitored end-of-life testing. For this purpose, an inverse technique, which determines the damage location and size based on the modal frequency shift and on the change of the mode shapes, is presented. This includes a preliminary FE model-based study correlating the delamination location and size to the change in the modal parameters and a subsequent experimental validation achieved through dynamic measurements of specimen with different, pre-generated crack scenarios and comparing it to the virgin specimen. The main advantage of the inverse characterization approach presented in the first part resides in the ability of adequately identifying the material damping and stiffness behavior of soft viscoelastic materials over a wide frequency range and under critical temperature conditions. Classic forward characterization techniques such as dynamic mechanical analysis are usually linked to limitations under critical temperature and frequency conditions due to the material behavior of soft viscoelastic materials. Furthermore, the inverse damage detection described in the second part guarantees an accurate prediction of not only the damage size but also its location using a simple test setup and outlines; therefore, the significance of inverse numerical-experimental approaches in predicting the dynamic behavior of soft bonding layers applied in automotive electronics.

Keywords: damage detection, dynamic characterization, inverse approaches, vibration testing, viscoelastic layers

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Authors: Erifyli Tsagkari, Stephanie Connelly, Zhaowei Liu, Andrew McBride, William Sloan

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Biofilms play an essential role in treating water in biofiltration systems. The biofilm morphology and function are inextricably linked to the hydrodynamics of flow through a filter, and yet engineers rarely explicitly engineer this interaction. We develop a system that links computer simulation and 3-D printing to optimize and rapidly prototype filter media to optimize biofilm function with the hypothesis that biofilm function is intimately linked to the flow passing through the filter. A computational model that numerically solves the incompressible time-dependent Navier Stokes equations coupled to a model for biofilm growth and function is developed. The model is imbedded in an optimization algorithm that allows the model domain to adapt until criteria on biofilm functioning are met. This is applied to optimize the shape of filter media in a simple flow channel to promote biofilm formation. The computer code links directly to a 3-D printer, and this allows us to prototype the design rapidly. Its validity is tested in flow visualization experiments and by microscopy. As proof of concept, the code was constrained to explore a small range of potential filter media, where the medium acts as an obstacle in the flow that sheds a von Karman vortex street that was found to enhance the deposition of bacteria on surfaces downstream. The flow visualization and microscopy in the 3-D printed realization of the flow channel validated the predictions of the model and hence its potential as a design tool. Overall, it is shown that the combination of our computational model and the 3-D printing can be effectively used as a design tool to prototype filter media to optimize biofilm formation.

Keywords: biofilm, biofilter, computational model, von karman vortices, 3-D printing.

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Authors: Mert Kıranç, Ekrem Duman, Murat Özbilen

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In order to achieve new product development (NPD) activities on time and within budgetary constraints, the NPD managers need a well-designed methodology. This study intends to create an integrated project management methodology for the ones who focus on new product development projects. In the scope of the study, four different management systems are combined. These systems are called as 'Schedule-oriented Stage-Gate Method, Risk Management, Change Management and Earned Value Management'. New product development term is quite common in many different industries such as defense industry, construction, health care/dental, higher education, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, electronic devices, marketing and advertising and software development. All product manufacturers run against each other’s for introducing a new product to the market. In order to achieve to produce a more competitive product in the market, an optimum project management methodology is chosen, and this methodology is adapted to company culture. The right methodology helps the company to present perfect product to the customers at the right time. The benefits of proposed methodology are discussed as an application by a company. As a result, how the integrated methodology improves the efficiency and how it achieves the success of the project are unfolded.

Keywords: project, project management, management methodology, new product development, risk management, change management, earned value, stage-gate

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri

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This paper is to clarify the relationship between ICT and income inequality. To do so, we develop the general equilibrium model with ICT investment, obtain the equilibrium solutions, and then simulate the model with these solutions for some OECD countries. As a result, generally, during the corresponding periods we confirm that the relationship between ICT investment and income inequality is positive. In this mode, the increment of the ratio of ICT investment to the aggregated investment in stock enhances the capital’s share of income, and finally leads to income inequality such as the increase of the share of the top decile income. Although we confirm the positive relationship between ICT investment and income inequality, the upward trend for that relationship depends on the values of parameters for the making use of the simulations and these parameters are not deterministic in the magnitudes on the calculated results for the simulations.

Keywords: ICT, inequality, capital accumulation, technology

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Authors: Aniruddha Joshi

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This paper discusses a simulation study of automated sand casting production system. Therefore, the first aims of this study is development of automated sand casting process model and analyze this model with a simulation software Witness. Production methodology aims to improve overall productivity through elimination of wastes and that leads to improve quality. Integration of automation with Simulation is beneficial to identify the obstacles in implementation and to take appropriate options to implement successfully. For this integration, there are different Simulation Software’s. To study this integration, with the help of “WITNESS” Simulation Software the model is created. This model is based on literature review. The input parameters are Setup Time, Number of machines, cycle time and output parameter is number of castings, avg, and time and percentage usage of machines. Obtained results are used for Statistical Analysis. This analysis concludes the optimal solution to get maximum output.

Keywords: automated sand casting production system, simulation, WITNESS software, performance evaluation

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

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Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution

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Authors: Oloyede John Adebayo

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This paper tested a variant of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, called Frankel’s Capital Account Monetary Model (CAAM) based on Real Interest Rate Differential, on the floating exchange rate experiences of three developing countries of Africa; viz: Ghana, Nigeria and the Gambia. The study adopted the Auto regressive Instrumental Package (AIV) and Almon Polynomial Lag Procedure of regression analysis based on the assumption that the coefficients follow a third-order Polynomial with zero-end constraint. The results found some support for the CAAM hypothesis that exchange rate responds proportionately to changes in money supply, inversely to income and positively to interest rates and expected inflation differentials. On this basis, the study points the attention of monetary authorities and researchers to the relevance and usefulness of CAAM as appropriate tool and useful benchmark for analyzing the exchange rate behaviour of most developing countries.

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, interest differentials, capital account

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Authors: Ahmed I. Raheem

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In this thesis, stratified and stratified wavy flow regimes have been investigated numerically for the oil (1.57 mPa s viscosity and 780 kg/m3 density) and water twophase flow in small and large horizontal steel pipes with a diameter between 0.0254 to 0.508 m by ANSYS Fluent software. Volume of fluid (VOF) with two phases flows using two equations family models (Realizable k-

Keywords: CFD, two-phase flow, pressure gradient, volume of fluid, large diameter, horizontal pipe, oil-water stratified and stratified wavy flow

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Authors: Maciej Dudek, Robert Kruszewski, Janusz Kudla, Konrad Walczyk

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In this paper, we study how taxation of bequests affects human capital formation in the long term and short term horizon. Our underlying model is an overlapping generation model (OLG) with some degree of altruism on the part of the ancestors' generation towards their descendants. We ask the question in three separate frameworks. First, we study a simple one-sector model where a proxy of human capital is wage income. It the steady-state -for CRRA utility function and human capital produced with non-decreasing returns -the taxation of bequests is neutral to the accumulation of human capital. In the second framework, neutrality applies to the growth rates of human capital, physical capital, and consumption. In this case, taxation increases the level of bequests, leading to a lower value of current consumption. Finally in we consider two periods model instead of infinite horizon model as long as the tax revenue is at least partially rebated back to the public, the fraction of human capital engaged in the process of formation of human capital increases with the tax rate on bequests. In other words, taxation of bequests is partially offset by an increase in human capital formation. Higher human capital allows the future generation to earn higher wages, and today's generation can find it optimal to endow the future generation with more human capital when taxation is imposed on physical capital transferred to the next generation.

Keywords: taxation, bequests, policy, human capital

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Authors: Linlong Mu, Maosong Huang

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Considering excavations in urban areas, the soil deformation induced by the excavations usually causes damage to the surrounding structures. Displacement control becomes a critical indicator of foundation design in order to protect the surrounding structures. Evaluation, the damage potential of the surrounding structures induced by the excavations, usually depends on the finite element method (FEM) because of the complexity of the excavation and the variety of the surrounding structures. Besides, evaluation the influence of the excavation on surrounding structures is a three-dimensional problem. And it is now well recognized that small strain behaviour of the soil influences the responses of the excavation significantly. Three-dimensional FEM considering small strain behaviour of the soil is a very complex method, which is hard for engineers to use. Thus, it is important to obtain a simplified method for engineers to predict the influence of the excavations on the surrounding structures. Based on large-scale finite element calculation with small-strain based soil model coupling with inverse analysis, an empirical method is proposed to calculate the three-dimensional soil movement induced by braced excavation. The empirical method is able to capture the small-strain behaviour of the soil. And it is suitable to be used in layered soil. Then the free-field soil movement is applied to the pile to calculate the responses of the pile in both vertical and horizontal directions. The asymmetric solutions for problems in layered elastic half-space are employed to solve the interactions between soil points. Both vertical and horizontal pile responses are solved through finite difference method based on elastic theory. Interactions among the nodes along a single pile, pile-pile interactions, pile-soil-pile interaction action and soil-soil interactions are counted to improve the calculation accuracy of the method. For passive piles, the shadow effects are also calculated in the method. Finally, the restrictions of the raft on the piles and the soils are summarized as: (1) the summations of the internal forces between the elements of the raft and the elements of the foundation, including piles and soil surface elements, is equal to 0; (2) the deformations of pile heads or of the soil surface elements are the same as the deformations of the corresponding elements of the raft. Validations are carried out by comparing the results from the proposed method with the results from the model tests, FEM and other existing literatures. From the comparisons, it can be seen that the results from the proposed method fit with the results from other methods very well. The method proposed herein is suitable to predict the responses of the pile-raft foundation induced by braced excavation in layered soil in both vertical and horizontal directions when the deformation is small. However, more data is needed to verify the method before it can be used in practice.

Keywords: excavation, pile-raft foundation, passive piles, deformation control, soil movement

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Authors: Subhajit Das, Nirjhar Dhang

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Structural damage detection is a challenging work in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM). The damage detection methods mainly focused on the determination of the location and severity of the damage. Model updating is a well known method to locate and quantify the damage. In this method, an error function is defined in terms of difference between the signal measured from ‘experiment’ and signal obtained from undamaged finite element model. This error function is minimised with a proper algorithm, and the finite element model is updated accordingly to match the measured response. Thus, the damage location and severity can be identified from the updated model. In this paper, an error function is defined in terms of modal data viz. frequencies and modal assurance criteria (MAC). MAC is derived from Eigen vectors. This error function is minimized by teaching-learning-based optimization (TLBO) algorithm, and the finite element model is updated accordingly to locate and quantify the damage. Damage is introduced in the model by reduction of stiffness of the structural member. The ‘experimental’ data is simulated by the finite element modelling. The error due to experimental measurement is introduced in the synthetic ‘experimental’ data by adding random noise, which follows Gaussian distribution. The efficiency and robustness of this method are explained through three examples e.g., one truss, one beam and one frame problem. The result shows that TLBO algorithm is efficient to detect the damage location as well as the severity of damage using modal data.

Keywords: damage detection, finite element model updating, modal assurance criteria, structural health monitoring, teaching learning based optimization

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Authors: Ashis Mallick, Rajeev Ranjan

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The closed form solution for thermal stresses in an annular fin with hyperbolic profile is derived using Adomian decomposition method (ADM). The conductive-convective fin with variable thermal conductivity is considered in the analysis. The nonlinear heat transfer equation is efficiently solved by ADM considering insulated convective boundary conditions at the tip of fin. The constant of integration in the solution is to be estimated using minimum decomposition error method. The solution of temperature field is represented in a polynomial form for convenience to use in thermo-elasticity equation. The non-dimensional thermal stress fields are obtained using the ADM solution of temperature field coupled with the thermo-elasticity solution. The influence of the various thermal parameters in temperature field and stress fields are presented. In order to show the accuracy of the ADM solution, the present results are compared with the results available in literature. The stress fields in fin with hyperbolic profile are compared with those of uniform thickness profile. Result shows that hyperbolic fin profile is better choice for enhancing heat transfer. Moreover, less thermal stresses are developed in hyperbolic profile as compared to rectangular profile. Next, Nelder-Mead based simplex search method is employed for the inverse estimation of unknown non-dimensional thermal parameters in a given stress fields. Owing to the correlated nature of the unknowns, the best combinations of the model parameters which are satisfying the predefined stress field are to be estimated. The stress fields calculated using the inverse parameters give a very good agreement with the stress fields obtained from the forward solution. The estimated parameters are suitable to use for efficient and cost effective fin designing.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition, inverse analysis, hyperbolic fin, variable thermal conductivity

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Authors: Hatem K. Hamed, Mohamed S. Hrouda

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The Middle Paleocene Lower Beda Formation was deposited in a ramp system with local shoaling. The main constituent is limestone, with subordinate dolomites and Shales. Reservoir quality is largely influenced by depositional environments and diagenesis processes. Generally the reservoir quality of Lower Beda Formation is low risk on the Inferred Horst and in the Southern Shelf where the Lower Beda formation comprises mainly of calcarenties. In the vicinity of the well GG1 the Lower Beda comprise mainly of argillaceous calcilutites and shale. The reservoir quality gradually improves from high risk to moderate risk towards KK1, LL1 and NN1 wells. The average gross thickness of Lower Beda Formation is about 300 ft. The net thickness varies from about 270 ft. in the E1-71 well to about 30 ft. in the vicinity of GG1-71 well. The net thickest of Lower Beda form a NNW-SSW trend with an average of 250 ft. the change in facies is due to change in the depositional environment, from lagoonal to shoal barrier to open marine affected the reservoir quality. The Upper Cretaceous Sirte Shale is the main source rock. It is developed within the three troughs surrounding the study area. S-Marada Trough to the N- E, Gerad Trough to the N N-W, and Abu Tummym Sub-basin to the S-W of the Inferred Horst. Sirte shale reaches 1000ft, of organically rich section. It has good organic contents over large area 2% to 3%. Hydrocarbon shows were encountered in several wells in Beda Formation this is an indication of vertical and lateral migration of hydrocarbon. The overlying Upper Paleocene Khalifa Formation is a transgressive shale, it is an effective regional top seal. Lithofacies variations in Khalifa Shale, from shales to limestones in the southern shelf in R1-71 well approximately 50-75% of the secession is limestone. About 47 million barrel of hydrocarbon recoverable reserves is expected to be trapped in structural and stratigraphic traps in Beda Formation in the study area.

Keywords: Sirte basin, Beda formation, concession 71, petroleum play fairway analysis

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Authors: A. V. Patil

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The microwave dielectric relaxation study of diethanolamine with triethanolamine binary mixture have been determined over the frequency range of 10 MHz to 20 GHz, at various temperatures using time domain reflectometry (TDR) method for 11 concentrations of the system. The present work reveals molecular interaction between same multi-functional groups [−OH and –NH2] of the alkanolamines (diethanolamine and triethanolamine) using different models such as Debye model, Excess model, and Kirkwood model. The dielectric parameters viz. static dielectric constant (ε0) and relaxation time (τ) have been obtained with Debye equation characterized by a single relaxation time without relaxation time distribution by the least squares fit method.

Keywords: diethanolamine, excess properties, kirkwood properties, time domain reflectometry, triethanolamine

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Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

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The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

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Authors: Xiuying Wang, Changliang Li, Bo Xu

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A fixed-length feature vector is required for many machine learning algorithms in NLP field. Word embeddings have been very successful at learning lexical information. However, they cannot capture the compositional meaning of sentences, which prevents them from a deeper understanding of language. In this paper, we introduce a novel hierarchical tree long short-term memory (HTLSTM) model that learns vector representations for sentences of arbitrary syntactic type and length. We propose to split one sentence into three hierarchies: short phrase, long phrase and full sentence level. The HTLSTM model gives our algorithm the potential to fully consider the hierarchical information and long-term dependencies of language. We design the experiments on both English and Chinese corpus to evaluate our model on sentiment analysis task. And the results show that our model outperforms several existing state of the art approaches significantly.

Keywords: deep learning, hierarchical tree long short-term memory, sentence representation, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Moustafa Ali

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The aim of this paper is to discuss and question some of the widely accepted concepts within the conceptual framework of gender from terminological, scientific, and Muslim cultural perspectives, and to introduce a new definition and a model of gender in the Arab and Muslim societies. This paper, therefore, uses a generic methodology and document analysis and comes in three sections and a conclusion. The first section discusses some of the terminological issues in the conceptual framework of gender. The second section highlights scientific issues, introduces a definition and a model of gender, whereas the third section offers Muslim cultural perspectives on some issues related to gender in the Muslim world. The paper, then, concludes with findings and recommendations reached so far.

Keywords: gender definition, gender equalities, sex-gender separability, fairness-based model of gender

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Authors: Farzad Jafarpour Taher, Maghsud Solimanpur

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Production planning is one of the complex tasks in multi-product firms that produce a wide range of products. Since resources in mass production companies are limited and different products use common resources, there must be a careful plan so that firms can respond to customer needs efficiently. Azar-battery Company is a firm that provides twenty types of products for its customers. Therefore, careful planning must be performed in this company. In this research, the current conditions of Azar-battery Company were investigated to provide a mathematical programming model to determine the optimum production rate of the products in this company. The production system of this company is multi-stage, multi-product and multi-period. This system is studied in terms of a one-year planning horizon regarding the capacity of machines and warehouse space limitation. The problem has been modeled as a linear programming model with deterministic demand in which shortage is not allowed. The objective function of this model is to minimize costs (including raw materials, assembly stage, energy costs, packaging, and holding). Finally, this model has been solved by Lingo software using the branch and bound approach. Since the computation time was very long, the solver interrupted, and the obtained feasible solution was used for comparison. The proposed model's solution costs have been compared to the company’s real data. This non-optimal solution reduces the total production costs of the company by about %35.

Keywords: multi-period, multi-product production, multi-stage, production planning

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Authors: Shaukat Ali Shahee, Usha Ananthakumar

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A data set exhibits class imbalance problem when one class has very few examples compared to the other class, and this is also referred to as between class imbalance. The traditional classifiers fail to classify the minority class examples correctly due to its bias towards the majority class. Apart from between-class imbalance, imbalance within classes where classes are composed of a different number of sub-clusters with these sub-clusters containing different number of examples also deteriorates the performance of the classifier. Previously, many methods have been proposed for handling imbalanced dataset problem. These methods can be classified into four categories: data preprocessing, algorithmic based, cost-based methods and ensemble of classifier. Data preprocessing techniques have shown great potential as they attempt to improve data distribution rather than the classifier. Data preprocessing technique handles class imbalance either by increasing the minority class examples or by decreasing the majority class examples. Decreasing the majority class examples lead to loss of information and also when minority class has an absolute rarity, removing the majority class examples is generally not recommended. Existing methods available for handling class imbalance do not address both between-class imbalance and within-class imbalance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a method that handles between class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously for binary classification problem. Removing between class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously eliminates the biases of the classifier towards bigger sub-clusters by minimizing the error domination of bigger sub-clusters in total error. The proposed method uses model-based clustering to find the presence of sub-clusters or sub-concepts in the dataset. The number of examples oversampled among the sub-clusters is determined based on the complexity of sub-clusters. The method also takes into consideration the scatter of the data in the feature space and also adaptively copes up with unseen test data using Lowner-John ellipsoid for increasing the accuracy of the classifier. In this study, neural network is being used as this is one such classifier where the total error is minimized and removing the between-class imbalance and within class imbalance simultaneously help the classifier in giving equal weight to all the sub-clusters irrespective of the classes. The proposed method is validated on 9 publicly available data sets and compared with three existing oversampling techniques that rely on the spatial location of minority class examples in the euclidean feature space. The experimental results show the proposed method to be statistically significantly superior to other methods in terms of various accuracy measures. Thus the proposed method can serve as a good alternative to handle various problem domains like credit scoring, customer churn prediction, financial distress, etc., that typically involve imbalanced data sets.

Keywords: classification, imbalanced dataset, Lowner-John ellipsoid, model based clustering, oversampling

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Juraj Camaj, Jaroslav Masek

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This contribution is focused on the methodology for identifying levels of quality and improving quality through new logistics model in railway transport. It is oriented on the application of dynamic quality models, which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected, and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process within logistics chain can be taken into account. Various models describe the improvement of the quality which emphases the time factor throughout the whole transportation logistics chain. Quality of services in railway transport can be determined by the existing level of service quality, by detecting the causes of dissatisfaction employees but also customers, to uncover strengths and weaknesses. This new logistics model is able to recognize critical processes in logistic chain. It includes service quality rating that must respect its specific properties, which are unrepeatability, impalpability, their use right at the time they are provided and particularly changeability, which is significant factor in the conditions of rail transport as well. These peculiarities influence the quality of service regarding the constantly increasing requirements and that result in new ways of finding progressive attitudes towards the service quality rating.

Keywords: logistics model, quality, railway transport

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Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: Chen Chih-Cheng, Chen I-Cheng, Lee Yung-Tan, Kuo Yen-Whea, Yu Chin-Hung

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The purpose of this study is to construct a model for best spike player selection in a top volleyball tournament of the world. Data consisted of the records of 2013 World Grand Prix declared by International Volleyball Federation (FIVB). Simple Multiple-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) was used for optimal decision-making model on the best spike player selection. The research results showed that the best spike player ranking by SMART is different than the ranking by FIVB. The results demonstrated the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Keywords: simple multiple-attribute rating technique, World Grand Prix, best spike player, International Volleyball Federation

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Authors: Jeugert Kujtila, Kristi Hoxhalli, Ramazan Dalipi, Erjon Cota, Ardit Murati, Erind Bedalli

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Clustering is a versatile instrument in the analysis of collections of data providing insights of the underlying structures of the dataset and enhancing the modeling capabilities. The fuzzy approach to the clustering problem increases the flexibility involving the concept of partial memberships (some value in the continuous interval [0, 1]) of the instances in the clusters. Several fuzzy clustering algorithms have been devised like FCM, Gustafson-Kessel, Gath-Geva, kernel-based FCM, PCM etc. Each of these algorithms has its own advantages and drawbacks, so none of these algorithms would be able to perform superiorly in all datasets. In this paper we will experimentally compare FCM, GK, GG algorithm and a hybrid two-stage fuzzy clustering model combining the FCM and Gath-Geva algorithms. Firstly we will theoretically dis-cuss the advantages and drawbacks for each of these algorithms and we will describe the hybrid clustering model exploiting the advantages and diminishing the drawbacks of each algorithm. Secondly we will experimentally compare the accuracy of the hybrid model by applying it on several benchmark and synthetic datasets.

Keywords: fuzzy clustering, fuzzy c-means algorithm (FCM), Gustafson-Kessel algorithm, hybrid clustering model

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Tri Pratiwi, Sufyarma Marsidin, Hermawati Syarif, Yahya

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The 21st-century skills being highly promoted today are Creativity and Innovation, Critical Thinking and Problem Solving, Communication and Collaboration. Communication Skill is one of the essential skills that should be mastered by the students. To master Communication Skills, students must first master their Language Skills. Language Skills is one of the main supporting factors in improving Communication Skills of a person because by learning Language Skills students are considered capable of communicating well and correctly so that the message or how to deliver the message to the listener can be conveyed clearly and easily understood. However, it cannot be denied that English output or learning outcomes which are less optimal is the problem which is frequently found in the implementation of the learning process. This research aimed to improve students’ language skills by developing learning model in English subject for VIII graders of SMP N 1 Uram Jaya through Directed-Project Based Learning (DPjBL) implementation. This study is designed in Research and Development (R & D) using ADDIE model development. The researcher collected data through observation, questionnaire, interview, test, and documentation which were then analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The results showed that DPjBL is effective to use, it is seen from the difference in value between the pretest and posttest of the control class and the experimental class. From the results of a questionnaire filled in general, the students and teachers agreed to DPjBL learning model. This learning model can increase the students' English achievement.

Keywords: language skills, learning model, Directed-Project Based Learning (DPjBL), English achievement

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Authors: Mkhokheli Sithole, Brenda N. Muchapondwa

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Food security is becoming a critical issue for people residing mainly in the rural areas where frequent droughts interrupt food production, reduce income, compromise the ability to save and erode livelihoods. This tends to increase the vulnerability of poor households to food and income insecurity, hence, malnutrition. There is an emerging need for DRR strategies to complement the existing rain fed crop production based livelihoods. One of such strategies employed by the community of Nerumedzo in Bikita district is the harvesting of Encosternum delegorguei insect. This article analyses the livelihood impacts of Encosternum delegorguei insect as a DRR strategy. The research used a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The insect samples were tested in the laboratory for their nutritional composition while surveys were done on a sample of 40 community members. Participatory observations and 5 focus group discussions were also done. The results revealed that harvesting the Encosternum delegorguei insects provides a livelihood for the locals by complementing crop production thereby mitigating potential negative effects of frequent droughts. The insects are now a significant source of income to poor households in the community.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, livelihoods, human, social sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 185