Search results for: skewed distributions

Authors: Loai AbdAllah, Mahmoud Kaiyal

Abstract:

Missing values in real-world datasets are a common problem. Many algorithms were developed to deal with this problem, most of them replace the missing values with a fixed value that was computed based on the observed values. In our work, we used a distance function based on Bhattacharyya distance to measure the distance between objects with missing values. Bhattacharyya distance, which measures the similarity of two probability distributions. The proposed distance distinguishes between known and unknown values. Where the distance between two known values is the Mahalanobis distance. When, on the other hand, one of them is missing the distance is computed based on the distribution of the known values, for the coordinate that contains the missing value. This method was integrated with Wikaya, a digital health company developing a platform that helps to improve prevention of chronic diseases such as diabetes and cancer. In order for Wikaya’s recommendation system to work distance between users need to be measured. Since there are missing values in the collected data, there is a need to develop a distance function distances between incomplete users profiles. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed distance function in reflecting the actual similarity between different objects, when some of them contain missing values, we integrated it within the framework of k nearest neighbors (kNN) classifier, since its computation is based only on the similarity between objects. To validate this, we ran the algorithm over diabetes and breast cancer datasets, standard benchmark datasets from the UCI repository. Our experiments show that kNN classifier using our proposed distance function outperforms the kNN using other existing methods.

Keywords: missing values, incomplete data, distance, incomplete diabetes data

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Shohei Maruyama, Yasuo Matsuyama, Sachiyo Aburatani

Abstract:

The development of the method to annotate unknown gene functions is an important task in bioinformatics. One of the approaches for the annotation is The identification of the metabolic pathway that genes are involved in. Gene expression data have been utilized for the identification, since gene expression data reflect various intracellular phenomena. However, it has been difficult to estimate the gene function with high accuracy. It is considered that the low accuracy of the estimation is caused by the difficulty of accurately measuring a gene expression. Even though they are measured under the same condition, the gene expressions will vary usually. In this study, we proposed a feature extraction method focusing on the variability of gene expressions to estimate the genes' metabolic pathway accurately. First, we estimated the distribution of each gene expression from replicate data. Next, we calculated the similarity between all gene pairs by KL divergence, which is a method for calculating the similarity between distributions. Finally, we utilized the similarity vectors as feature vectors and trained the multiclass SVM for identifying the genes' metabolic pathway. To evaluate our developed method, we applied the method to budding yeast and trained the multiclass SVM for identifying the seven metabolic pathways. As a result, the accuracy that calculated by our developed method was higher than the one that calculated from the raw gene expression data. Thus, our developed method combined with KL divergence is useful for identifying the genes' metabolic pathway.

Keywords: metabolic pathways, gene expression data, microarray, Kullback–Leibler divergence, KL divergence, support vector machines, SVM, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Tania Bose, Minto Rattan, Neeraj Chamoli

Abstract:

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the effect of thermal gradation on the steady-state creep behavior of rotating isotropic disc made of functionally graded material using threshold stress based Sherby’s creep law. The composite discs made of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon carbide particulate have been taken for analysis. The stress and strain rate distributions have been calculated for the discs rotating at elevated temperatures having thermal gradation. The material parameters of creep vary radially and have been estimated by regression fit of the available experimental data. Investigations for discs made up of linearly increasing particle content operating under linearly decreasing temperature from inner to outer radii have been done using von Mises’ yield criterion. The results are displayed and compared graphically in designer friendly format for the above said disc profile with the disc made of particle reinforced composite operating under uniform temperature profile. It is observed that radial and tangential stresses show minor variation and the strain rates vary significantly in the presence of thermal gradation as compared to disc having uniform temperature.

Keywords: creep, isotropic, steady-state, thermal gradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Ngoc Trung Ngo, Buddhima Indraratna, Cholachat Rujikiathmakjornr

Abstract:

For several hundred years, the design of railway tracks has practically remained unchanged. Traditionally, rail tracks are placed on a ballast layer due to several reasons, including economy, rapid drainage, and high load bearing capacity. The primary function of ballast is to distributing dynamic track loads to sub-ballast and subgrade layers, while also providing lateral resistance and allowing for rapid drainage. Upon repeated trainloads, the ballast becomes fouled due to ballast degradation and the intrusion of fines which adversely affects the strength and deformation behaviour of ballast. This paper presents the use of three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) in studying the shear behaviour of the fouled ballast subjected to direct shear loading. Irregularly shaped particles of ballast were modelled by grouping many spherical balls together in appropriate sizes to simulate representative ballast aggregates. Fouled ballast was modelled by injecting a specified number of miniature spherical particles into the void spaces. The DEM simulation highlights that the peak shear stress of the ballast assembly decreases and the dilation of fouled ballast increases with an increase level of fouling. Additionally, the distributions of contact force chain and particle displacement vectors were captured during shearing progress, explaining the formation of shear band and the evolutions of volumetric change of fouled ballast.

Keywords: railway ballast, coal fouling, discrete element modelling, discrete element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Tomer Gans-Or, Shmulik Pinkert

Abstract:

The determination of lateral pile capacity per unit length is a key aspect in geotechnical engineering. Traditional approaches for assessing piles lateral capacity in cohesive soils involve the application of upper-bound and lower-bound plasticity theorems. However, a comprehensive solution encompassing the entire spectrum of soil strength parameters, particularly in frictional soils with or without cohesion, is still lacking. This research introduces an innovative implementation of the slice method limit equilibrium solution for lateral capacity assessment. For any given numerical discretization of the soil's domain around the pile, the lateral capacity evaluation is based on mobilized strength concept. The critical failure geometry is then found by a unique optimization procedure which includes both factor of safety minimization and geometrical optimization. The robustness of this suggested methodology is that the solution is independent of any predefined assumptions. Validation of the solution is accomplished through a comparison with established plasticity solutions for cohesive soils. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the applicability of the limit equilibrium method to address unresolved cases related to frictional and cohesive-frictional soils. Beyond providing capacity values, the method enables the utilization of the mobilized strength concept to generate safety-factor distributions for scenarios representing pre-failure states.

Keywords: lateral pile capacity, slice method, limit equilibrium, mobilized strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: C. J. Coetzee, E. Horn

Abstract:

One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Jie Dong, Binjie Hu, Andrzej W Pacek, Xiaogang Yang, Nicholas J. Miles

Abstract:

The effect of the shape of the vessel bottom and the length of baffles on the velocity distributions in a turbulent and in a transitional flow has been simulated. The turbulent flow was simulated using standard k-ε model and simulation was verified using LES whereas transitional flow was simulated using only LES. It has been found that both the shape of tank bottom and the baffles’ length has significant effect on the flow pattern and velocity distribution below the impeller. In the dished bottom tank with baffles reaching the edge of the dish, the large rotating volume of liquid was formed below the impeller. Liquid in this rotating region was not fully mixing. A dead zone was formed here. The size and the intensity of circulation within this zone calculated by k-ε model and LES were practically identical what reinforces the accuracy of the numerical simulations. Both types of simulations also show that employing full-length baffles can reduce the size of dead zone formed below the impeller. The LES was also used to simulate the velocity distribution below the impeller in transitional flow and it has been found that secondary circulation loops were formed near the tank bottom in all investigated geometries. However, in this case the length of baffles has smaller effect on the volume of rotating liquid than in the turbulent flow.

Keywords: baffles length, dished bottom, dead zone, flow field

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Rongbo Shen, Jianhua Yao, Kezhou Yan, Kuan Tian, Cheng Jiang, Ke Zhou

Abstract:

This study proposes a generative adversarial networks (GAN) framework to perform synthetic sampling in feature space, i.e., feature augmentation, to address the class imbalance problem in medical image analysis. A feature extraction network is first trained to convert images into feature space. Then the GAN framework incorporates adversarial learning to train a feature generator for the minority class through playing a minimax game with a discriminator. The feature generator then generates features for minority class from arbitrary latent distributions to balance the data between the majority class and the minority class. Additionally, a data cleaning technique, i.e., Tomek link, is employed to clean up undesirable conflicting features introduced from the feature augmentation and thus establish well-defined class clusters for the training. The experiment section evaluates the proposed method on two medical image analysis tasks, i.e., mass classification on mammogram and cancer metastasis classification on histopathological images. Experimental results suggest that the proposed method obtains superior or comparable performance over the state-of-the-art counterparts. Compared to all counterparts, our proposed method improves more than 1.5 percentage of accuracy.

Keywords: class imbalance, synthetic sampling, feature augmentation, generative adversarial networks, data cleaning

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Amy L. Irvine, Gabriel Reygondeau, Derek P. Tittensor

Abstract:

Marine protected areas (MPAs) within Canada’s exclusive economic zone help ensure the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and the continued provision of ecosystem services to society (e.g., food, carbon sequestration). With ongoing and accelerating climate change, however, MPAs may become undermined in terms of their effectiveness at fulfilling these outcomes. Many populations of species, especially those at their thermal range limits, may shift to cooler waters or become extirpated due to climate change, resulting in new species compositions and ecological interactions within static MPA boundaries. While Canadian MPA management follows international guidelines for marine conservation, no consistent approach exists for adapting MPA networks to climate change and the resulting altered ecosystem conditions. To fill this gap, projected climate-driven shifts in species distributions on Canada’s east coast were analyzed to identify when native species emigrate and novel species immigrate within the network and how high mitigation and carbon emission scenarios influence these timelines. Indicators of the ecological changes caused by these species' shifts in the biological community were also developed. Overall, our research provides projections of climate change impacts and helps to guide adaptive management responses within the Canadian east coast MPA network.

Keywords: climate change, ecosystem modeling, marine protected areas, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Sergio Curilef, Boris Atenas

Abstract:

Systems with long-range interactions are very common in nature. They are observed from the atomic scale to the astronomical scale and exhibit anomalies, such as inequivalence of ensembles, negative heat capacity, ergodicity breaking, nonequilibrium phase transitions, quasistationary states, and anomalous diffusion. These anomalies are exacerbated when special initial conditions are imposed; in particular, we use the so-called water bag initial conditions that stand for a uniform distribution. Several theoretical and practical implications are discussed here. A potential energy inspired by dipole-dipole interactions is proposed to build the dipole-type Hamiltonian mean-field model. As expected, the dynamics is novel and general to the behavior of systems with long-range interactions, which is obtained through molecular dynamics technique. Two plateaus sequentially emerge before arriving at equilibrium, which are corresponding to two different quasistationary states. The first plateau is a type of quasistationary state the lifetime of which depends on a power law of N and the second plateau seems to be a true quasistationary state as reported in the literature. The general behavior of the model according to its dynamics and thermodynamics is described. Using numerical simulation we characterize the mean kinetic energy, caloric curve, and the diffusion law through the mean square of displacement. The present challenge is to characterize the distributions in phase space. Certainly, the equilibrium state is well characterized by the Gaussian distribution, but quasistationary states in general depart from any Gaussian function.

Keywords: dipole-type interactions, dynamics and thermodynamics, mean field model, quasistationary states

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Tamirat Solomon, Tadesse Faltamo, Belete Limani

Abstract:

This study was conducted on the mountain Damota of Wolaita to assess the abundance and spatial distribution of two locally important indigenous medicinal plants on the mountain landscape. A total of 130 plots measuring 20x20m were established along eight systematically laid transect lines. In each plot, the abundance and distribution of Hagenia abyssinica (tree) and Pentas schiperiana Vatke (shrub) were evaluated. The abundance and distribution of H. abyssinica were evaluated by measuring height and DBH for mature trees and counting seedlings and saplings, whereas the P. schiperiana Vatke was assessed for its abundance and distribution by counting in each plot. In the entire study plots, a total of 485 H. abyssinica and 760 P. schiperiana vatake were recorded. It was observed that the distribution of the species increased while the altitude increased and the highest abundance of the species was recorded at an altitude range between 2332 and 2661m.a.s.l. However, at the altitudes below 2320 m.a.s.l., the species distributions and abundance was decreased, indicating either the ecological preference of the species or the extraction of the local community surrounding the mountain influenced the species. On average, only 28 seedlings/ha of H. abyssinica and 146/ha of P. schiperiana vatke were recorded in the study areas showing the tendency of decline in the abundance and distribution of both species. Finally, we recommend management intervention for the socially important species which are under threat on the mountain landscape.

Keywords: indigenous medicinal plants, H.abyssinic, P. schiperiana, distribution, abundance, socio-economic importance

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Jonathan Galvan-Colin, Ariel Valladares, Renela Valladares, Alexander Valladares

Abstract:

Both porous materials and bulk metallic glasses have been studied due to their potential applications and their exceptional physical and chemical properties. However, each material presents certain drawbacks which have been thought to be overcome by generating bulk metallic glass foams (BMGF). Although some experimental reports have been performed on multicomponent BMGF, still no ab initio works have been published, as far as we know. We present an approach based on the expanding lattice (EL) method to generate binary amorphous nanoporous Cu64Zr36. Starting from two different configurations: a 108-atom crystalline cubic supercell (cCu64Zr36) and a 108-atom amorphous supercell (aCu64Zr36), both with an initial density of 8.06 g/cm3, we applied EL method to halve the density and to get 50% of porosity. After the lattice expansion the supercells were subject to ab initio molecular dynamics for 500 steps at constant room temperature. Then, the samples were geometry-optimized and characterized with the pair and radial distribution functions, bond-angle distributions and a coordination number analysis. We found that pores appeared along specific spatial directions different from one to another and that they differed in size and form as well, which we think is related to the initial structure. Due to the lack of experimental counterparts our results should be considered predictive and further studies are needed in order to handle a larger number of atoms and its implication on pore topology.

Keywords: ab initio molecular dynamics, bulk mettalic glass, porous alloy

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Renukswamy Chikkamath, Vishvapalsinhji Ramsinh Parmar, Christoph Hewel, Markus Endres

Abstract:

Given a patent document, identifying distinct semantic annotations is an interesting research aspect. Text annotation helps the patent practitioners such as examiners and patent attorneys to quickly identify the key arguments of any invention, successively providing a timely marking of a patent text. In the process of manual patent analysis, to attain better readability, recognising the semantic information by marking paragraphs is in practice. This semantic annotation process is laborious and time-consuming. To alleviate such a problem, we proposed a dataset to train machine learning algorithms to automate the highlighting process. The contributions of this work are: i) we developed a multi-class dataset of size 150k samples by traversing USPTO patents over a decade, ii) articulated statistics and distributions of data using imperative exploratory data analysis, iii) baseline Machine Learning models are developed to utilize the dataset to address patent paragraph highlighting task, and iv) future path to extend this work using Deep Learning and domain-specific pre-trained language models to develop a tool to highlight is provided. This work assists patent practitioners in highlighting semantic information automatically and aids in creating a sustainable and efficient patent analysis using the aptitude of machine learning.

Keywords: machine learning, patents, patent sentiment analysis, patent information retrieval

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Jehnming Lin

Abstract:

The effects of the contact ball-lens on the soda lime glass in laser thermal cleavage with a cw Nd-YAG laser were investigated in this study. A contact ball-lens was adopted to generate a bending force on the crack formation of the soda-lime glass in the laser cutting process. The Nd-YAG laser beam (wavelength of 1064 nm) was focused through the ball-lens and transmitted to the soda-lime glass, which was coated with a carbon film on the surface with a bending force from a ball-lens to generate a tensile stress state on the surface cracking. The fracture was controlled by the contact ball-lens and a straight cutting was tested to demonstrate the feasibility. Experimental observations on the crack propagation from the leading edge, main section and trailing edge of the glass sheet were compared with various mechanical and thermal loadings. Further analyses on the stress under various laser powers and contact ball loadings were made to characterize the innovative technology. The results show that the distributions of the side crack at the leading and trailing edges are mainly dependent on the boundary condition, contact force, cutting speed and laser power. With the increase of the mechanical and thermal loadings, the region of the side cracks might be dramatically reduced with proper selection of the geometrical constraints. Therefore, the application of the contact ball-lens is a possible way to control the fracture in laser cleavage with improved cutting qualities.

Keywords: laser cleavage, stress analysis, crack visualization, laser

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: P. Byrnes, F. A. DiazDelaO

Abstract:

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) has become widely recognised as one of the leading algorithms in machine learning for both regression and binary classification. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions, referred to as support vectors. Despite its popularity amongst practitioners, SVM has some limitations, with the most significant being the generation of point prediction as opposed to predictive distributions. Stemming from this issue, a probabilistic model namely, Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines (PCVM), has been proposed which respects the original functional form of SVM whilst also providing a predictive distribution. As physical system designs become more complex, an increasing number of classification tasks involving industrial applications consist of more than two classes. Consequently, this research proposes a framework which allows for the extension of PCVM to a multi class setting. Additionally, the original PCVM framework relies on the use of type II maximum likelihood to provide estimates for both the kernel hyperparameters and model evidence. In a high dimensional multi class setting, however, this approach has been shown to be ineffective due to bad scaling as the number of classes increases. Accordingly, we propose the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods to provide a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. The proposed framework will be validated against current multi class classifiers through synthetic and real life implementations.

Keywords: probabilistic classification vector machines, multi class classification, MCMC, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Maria Pintea, Nigel Mason

Abstract:

Induced chemistry is one of the newest pathways in the nanotechnology field with applications in the focused electron beam induced processes for deposition of nm scale structures. Si(OPr)₄ and Ti(OEt)₄ are two of the precursors that have not been so extensively researched, though highly sought for semiconductor and medical applications fields, the two compounds make good candidates for FEBIP and are the subject of velocity slice map imaging analysis for deposition purposes, offering information on kinetic energies, fragmentation channels, and angular distributions. The velocity slice map imaging technique is a method used for the characterization of molecular dynamics of the molecule and the fragmentation channels as a result of induced chemistry. To support the gas-phase analysis, Meso-Bio-Nano simulations of irradiation dynamics studies are employed with final results on Fe(CO)₅ deposited on various substrates. The software is capable of running large scale simulations for complex biomolecular, nano- and mesoscopic systems with applications to thermos-mechanical DNA damage, complex materials, gases, nanoparticles for cancer research and deposition applications for nanotechnology, using a large library of classical potentials, many-body force fields, molecular force fields involved in the classical molecular dynamics.

Keywords: focused electron beam induced deposition, FEBID, induced chemistry, molecular dynamics, velocity map slice imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Siti Sofo Ismail, Siti Noraina Wahida Mohd Alwi, Mohamad Hafiz Ameran, Masrudin M. Yusoff

Abstract:

Locating clandestine cadaver is crucially important in forensic investigations. However, it requires a lot of man power, costly and time consuming. Therefore, the development of a new method to locate the clandestine graves is urgently needed as the cases involve burial of cadaver in different types of soils under tropical climates are still not well explored. This study focused on the burial in mangrove and oil palm plantation soils, comparing the fatty acid distributions in different soil acidities. A stimulated burial experiment was conducted using domestic pig (Sus scrofa) to substitute human tissues. Approximately 20g of pig fatty flesh was allowed to decompose in mangrove and oil palm plantation soils, mimicking burial in a shallow grave. The associated soils were collected at different designated sampling points, corresponding different decomposition stages. Modified Bligh-Dyer Extraction method was applied to extract the soil free fatty acids. Then, the obtained free fatty acids were analyzed with gas chromatography-flame ionization (GC-FID). A similar fatty acid distribution was observed for both mangrove and oil palm plantations soils. Palmitic acid (C₁₆) was the most abundance of free fatty acid, followed by stearic acid (C₁₈). However, the concentration of palmitic acid (C₁₆) higher in oil palm plantation compare to mangrove soils. Conclusion, the decomposition rate of cadaver can be affected by different type of soils.

Keywords: clandestine grave, burial, soils, free fatty acid

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: A. S. Grewal, R. S. Sangwan, Dharambir, Vikas Dhanda

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop and analyze two reliability models for a system of non-identical firearms – one is standard firearm (called as original unit) and the other is a country-made firearm (called as duplicate /substandard unit). There is a single server who comes immediately to do inspection and repair whenever needed. On the failure of standard firearm, the server inspects the operative country-made firearm to see whether the unit is capable of performing the desired function well or not. If country-made firearm is not capable to do so, the operation of the system is stopped and server starts repair of the standard firearms immediately. However, no inspection is done at the failure of the country-made firearm as the country-made firearm alone is capable of performing the given task well. In model I, priority to repair the standard firearm is given in case system fails completely and country-made firearm is already under repair, whereas in model II there is no such priority. The failure and repair times of each unit are assumed to be independent and uncorrelated random variables. The distributions of failure time of the units are taken as negative exponential while that of repair and inspection times are general. By using semi-Markov process and regenerative point technique some econo-reliability measures are obtained. Graphs are plotted to compare the MTSF (mean time to system failure), availability and profit of the models for a particular case.

Keywords: non-identical firearms, inspection, priority to repair, semi-Markov process, regenerative point

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Christian Bruss, Simona Gamba, Davide Azzolini, Federico Podestà

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors assess the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the size and on the age and gender composition of asylum-related migration flows to Europe. With this paper, the authors contribute to the literature by looking at the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the gender and age composition of migration flows in addition to the size of these flows. Conflicting theories predict different outcomes concerning the relationship between political and environmental shocks and the migration flows composition. Analyzing the relationship between the causes of migration and the composition of migration flows could yield more insights into the mechanisms behind migration decisions. In addition, this research may contribute to better informing national authorities in charge of receiving these migrant, as women and children/the elderly require different assistance than young men. To be prepared to offer the correct services, the relevant institutions have to be aware of changes in composition based on the shock in question. The authors analyze the effect of different types of shocks on the number, the gender and age composition of first time asylum seekers originating from 154 sending countries. Among the political shocks, the authors consider: violence between combatants, violence against civilians, infringement of political rights and civil liberties, and state terror. Concerning environmental shocks, natural disasters (such as droughts, floods, epidemics, etc.) have been included. The data on asylum seekers applying to any of the 32 Schengen Area countries between 2008 and 2015 is on a monthly basis. Data on asylum applications come from Eurostat, data on shocks are retrieved from various sources: georeferenced conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), data on natural disasters from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), data on civil liberties and political rights from Freedom House, data on state terror from the Political Terror Scale (PTS), GDP and population data from the World Bank, and georeferenced population data from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The authors adopt a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, exploiting the different timing of several kinds of shocks across countries. The highly skewed distribution of the dependent variable is taken into account by using count data models. In particular, a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial model is adopted. Preliminary results show that different shocks - such as armed conflict and epidemics - exert weak immediate effects on asylum-related migration flows and almost non-existent effects on the gender and age composition. However, this result is certainly affected by the fact that no time lags have been introduced so far. Finding the correct time lags depends on a great many variables not limited to distance alone. Therefore, finding the appropriate time lags is still a work in progress. Considering the ongoing refugee crisis, this topic is more important than ever. The authors hope that this research contributes to a less emotionally led debate.

Keywords: age, asylum, Europe, forced migration, gender

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Tahmina Sultana, Yasser Hassan

Abstract:

Vehicle technologies rapidly evolving due to their multifaceted advantages. Adapted different vehicle technologies like connectivity and automation on the same roads with conventional vehicles controlled by human drivers may increase speed disparity in mixed vehicle technologies. Identifying relationships between speed distribution measures of different vehicles and road geometry can be an indicator of speed disparity in mixed technologies. Previous studies proved that speed disparity measures and traffic accidents are inextricably related. Horizontal curves from three geographic areas were selected based on relevant criteria, and speed data were collected at the midpoint of the preceding tangent and starting, ending, and middle point of the curve. Multiple linear mixed effect models (LME) were developed using the instantaneous speed measures representing the speed of vehicles at different points of horizontal curves to recognize relationships between speed variance (standard deviation) and road geometry. A simulation-based framework (Monte Carlo) was introduced to check the speed disparity on horizontal curves in mixed vehicle technologies when consideration is given to the interactions among connected vehicles (CVs), autonomous vehicles (AVs), and non-connected vehicles (NCVs) on horizontal curves. The Monte Carlo method was used in the simulation to randomly sample values for the various parameters from their respective distributions. Theresults show that NCVs had higher speed variation than CVs and AVs. In addition, AVs and CVs contributed to reduce speed disparity in the mixed vehicle technologies in any penetration rates.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, connected vehicles, non-connected vehicles, speed variance

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an approach of detecting the behavior of the viewers of a TV program in a non-controlled environment. The experiment we propose is based on the use of three types of connected objects (smartphone, smart watch, and a connected remote control). 23 participants were observed while watching their TV programs during three phases: before, during and after watching a TV program. Their behaviors were detected using an approach based on The Dempster Shafer Theory (DST) in two phases. The first phase is to approximate dynamically the mass functions using an approach based on the correlation coefficient. The second phase is to calculate the approximate mass functions. To approximate the mass functions, two approaches have been tested: the first approach was to divide each features data space into cells; each one has a specific probability distribution over the behaviors. The probability distributions were computed statistically (estimated by empirical distribution). The second approach was to predict the TV-viewing behaviors through the use of classifiers algorithms and add uncertainty to the prediction based on the uncertainty of the model. Results showed that mixing the fusion rule with the computation of the initial approximate mass functions using a classifier led to an overall of 96%, 95% and 96% success rate for the first, second and third TV-viewing phase respectively. The results were also compared to those found in the literature. This study aims to anticipate certain actions in order to maintain the attention of TV viewers towards the proposed TV programs with usual connected objects, taking into account the various uncertainties that can be generated.

Keywords: Iot, TV-viewing behaviors identification, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Marcin Szlachetka, Konrad Pietrykowski

Abstract:

Modeling of a combustion process in a 9-cylinder aircraft engine is presented. The simulations of the combustion process in the IC engine have provided the information on the spatial and time distributions of selected quantities within the combustion chamber of the engine. The numerical analysis results have been compared with the results of indication process of the engine on the test stand. Modeling of combustion process an auto-ignited IC engine in the AVL Fire was carried out within the study. For the calculations, a ECFM-3Z model was used. Verification of simulation results was carried out by comparison of the pressure in the cylinder. The courses of indicated pressure, obtained from the simulations and during the engine tests mounted on a test stand were compared. The engine was braked by the propeller, which results in an adequate external power characteristics. The test object is a modified ASz-62IR engine with the injection system. The engine was running at take-off power. To check the optimum ignition timing regarding power, calculations, tests were performed for 7 different moments of ignition. The analyses of temperature distribution in the cylinder depending on the moments of ignition were carried out. Additional the course of pressure in the cylinder at different angles of ignition delays of the second spark plug were examined. The swirling of the mixture in the combustion chamber was also analysed. It has been shown that the largest vortexes occur in the middle of the chamber, and gets smaller, closer to the combustion chamber walls. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, internal combustion engine, aircraft engine

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Kahlil Fredrick Cui, Marissa Pastor

Abstract:

Earthquakes are complex phenomena, exhibiting complex correlations in space, time, and magnitude. Recently, the concept of complex networks has been used to shed light on the statistical and dynamical characteristics of regional seismicity. In this work, we study the relationships and interactions of seismic regions in Chile, Japan, and the Philippines through weighted and directed complex network analysis. Geographical areas are digitized into cells of fixed dimensions which in turn become the nodes of the network when an earthquake has occurred therein. Nodes are linked if a correlation exists between them as determined and measured by a correlation metric. The networks are found to be scale-free, exhibiting power-law behavior in the distributions of their different centrality measures: the in- and out-degree and the in- and out-strength. The evidence is also found of preferential interaction between seismically active regions through their degree-degree correlations suggesting that seismicity is dictated by the activity of a few active regions. The importance of a seismic region to the overall seismicity is measured using a generalized centrality metric taken to be an indicator of its activity or passivity. The spatial distribution of earthquake activity indicates the areas where strong earthquakes have occurred in the past while the passivity distribution points toward the likely locations an earthquake would occur whenever another one happens elsewhere. Finally, we propose a method that would project the location of the next possible earthquake using the generalized centralities coupled with correlations calculated between the latest earthquakes and a geographical point in the future.

Keywords: complex networks, correlations, earthquake, hazard assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Alok Madan, Arshad K. Hashmi

Abstract:

Performance based design (PBD) is an iterative exercise in which a preliminary trial design of the building structure is selected and if the selected trial design of the building structure does not conform to the desired performance objective, the trial design is revised. In this context, development of a fundamental approach for performance based seismic design of masonry infilled frames with minimum number of trials is an important objective. The paper presents a plastic design procedure based on the energy balance concept for PBD of multi-story multi-bay masonry infilled reinforced concrete (R/C) frames subjected to near-field earthquakes. The proposed energy based plastic design procedure was implemented for trial performance based seismic design of representative masonry infilled reinforced concrete frames with various practically relevant distributions of masonry infill panels over the frame elevation. Non-linear dynamic analyses of the trial PBD of masonry infilled R/C frames was performed under the action of near-field earthquake ground motions. The results of non-linear dynamic analyses demonstrate that the proposed energy method is effective for performance based design of masonry infilled R/C frames under near-field as well as far-field earthquakes.

Keywords: masonry infilled frame, energy methods, near-fault ground motions, pushover analysis, nonlinear dynamic analysis, seismic demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Michel A. Thomet

Abstract:

A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Chong Zhang, Guoming Tang, Bin Ge, Jiuyang Tang

Abstract:

With the fast growing road traffic and increasingly severe traffic congestion, more and more citizens choose to use the public transportation for daily travelling. Meanwhile, the shared bike provides a convenient option for the first and last mile to the public transit. As of 2016, over one thousand cities around the world have deployed the bike-sharing system. The combination of these two transportations have stimulated the development of each other and made significant contribution to the reduction of carbon footprint. A lot of work has been done on mining the riding behaviors in various bike-sharing systems. Most of them, however, treated the bike-sharing system as an isolated system and thus their results provide little reference for the public transit construction and optimization. In this work, we treat the bike-sharing and public transit as a whole and investigate the customers’ bike-and-ride behaviors. Specifically, we develop a spatio-temporal traffic delivery model to study the riding patterns between the two transportation systems and explore the traffic characteristics (e.g., distributions of customer arrival/departure and traffic peak hours) from the time and space dimensions. During the model construction and evaluation, we make use of large open datasets from real-world bike-sharing systems (the CitiBike in New York, GoBike in San Francisco and BIXI in Montreal) along with corresponding public transit information. The developed two-dimension traffic model, as well as the mined bike-and-ride behaviors, can provide great help to the deployment of next-generation intelligent transportation systems.

Keywords: riding pattern mining, bike-sharing system, public transportation, bike-and-ride behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 747

Authors: Sayed Ahmed El Sayed, Osama M. Mesalhy, Mohamed A. Abdelatief

Abstract:

A numerical study has been conducted to clarify fluid flow characteristics, pressure distributions, and skin friction coefficient over a wing-shaped tubes bundle in staggered arrangement with the placement of longitudinal fins (LF) at downstream position of the tube. The air-side Rea were at 1.8 x 103 to 9.7 x 103. The tubes bundle were employed with various fin height [hf] and fin thickness (δ) from (2 mm ≤ hf ≤ 12 mm) and (1.5 mm ≤ δ ≤ 3.5 mm) respectively at the considered Rea range. The flow pattern around the staggered wing-shaped tubes bundle was predicted using the commercial CFD FLUENT 6.3.26 software package. The distribution of average skin friction coefficient around wing-shaped tubes bundle is studied. Correlation of pressure drop coefficient Pdc and skin friction coefficient (Cf) in terms of Rea, design parameters for the studied cases were presented. Results indicated that the values of Pdc for hf = 6 mm are lower than these of NOF and hf = 2 mm by about 11 % and 13 % respectively for considered Rea range. Cf decreases as Rea increases. LFTH with hf = 6 mm offers lower form drag than that with hf = 12 mm and that of NOF. The lowest values of the pumping power are achieved for arrangements of hf = 6 mm for the considered Rea range. δ has negligible effect on skin friction coefficient, while has a slightly variation in ∆Pa. The wing-shaped tubes bundle heat exchanger with hf = 6 mm has the lowest values of ∆Pa, Pdc, Cf, and pumping power and hence the best performance comparing with the other bundles. Comparisons between the experimental and numerical results of the present study and those obtained by similar previous studies showed good agreements.

Keywords: longitudinal fins, skin friction, flow characteristics, FLUENT, wing-shaped tubes

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: Richard Nyanzi, Maupi E. Letsoalo, Jacobus N. Eloff, Piet J. Jooste

Abstract:

Candida albicans naturally occurs in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) of more than 50% of humans. Overgrowth of the fungus causes several forms of candidiasis including oral thrush. Overgrowth tends to occur in immunocompromised humans such as diabetic, cancer and HIV patients. Antifungal treatment is available, but not without shortcomings. In this study, inhibitory activity of five probiotic Lactobacillus strains was demonstrated against the growth of seven clinical strains of Candida albicans by co-culturing of the organisms in a maize gruel (MG) medium. Phenotypic tests, molecular techniques and phylogenetic analysis have enabled precise identification of the organisms used in the study. The quantitative pour plate technique was used to enumerate colonies of the yeasts and the lactobacilli and the Kruskal-Wallis test and ANOVA tests were employed to compare the distributions of the colonies of the organisms. The cereal medium, containing added carbon sources, was inoculated with a Candida and a Lactobacillus strain in combination and incubated at 37 °C for 168 h. Aliquots were regularly taken and subjected to pH determination and colony enumeration. Certain Lactobacillus strains proved to be inhibitory and also lethal to some Candida albicans strains. A low pH due to Lactobacillus acid production resulted in significant low Candida colony counts. Higher Lactobacillus colony counts did not necessarily result in lower Candida counts suggesting that inhibitory factors besides low pH and competitive growth by lactobacilli contributed to the reduction in Candida counts. Such anti-Candida efficacy however needs to be confirmed by in vivo studies.

Keywords: candida albicans, oral thrush, candidiasis, lactobacillus, probiotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 383