Search results for: random failures

Authors: Sulayman Adrees Mohammed, Ahmed Faraj Abd Alsameea

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The ongoing hindrance for Libyan oil and gas companies is the persistent challenge of eradicating maintenance program failures that result in exorbitant costs and production setbacks. Accordingly, this research is prompted to introduce the concept of lean philosophy in maintenance, which aims to eliminate waste and enhance productivity in maintenance procedures through the identification and differentiation of value-adding (VA) and non-value-adding (NVA) activities. The purpose of this paper was to explore and describe the benefits that can be gained by adopting the Lean philosophy towards the enhancement of maintenance programs' efficiency from theoretical perspectives. The oil industry maintenance community in Libya now has an introduced tool by which they can effectively evaluate their maintenance program functionality and reduce the areas of non-value added activities within maintenance, thereby enhancing the availability of the equipment and the capacity of the oil and gas facilities.

Keywords: efficiency, lean philosophy, Libyan oil and gas scenario, maintenance programs

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Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

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The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: H. Gholami, M. Jalali Azizpour

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Stress Corrosion Crack (SCC) in pipeline is a type of environmentally assisted cracking (EAC), since its discovery in 1965 as a possible cause of failure in pipeline, SCC has caused, on average, one of two failures per year in the U.S, According to the NACE SCC DA a pipe line segment is considered susceptible to SCC if all of the following factors are met: The operating stress exceeds 60% of specified minimum yield strength (SMYS), the operating temperature exceeds 38°C, the segment is less than 32 km downstream from a compressor station, the age of the pipeline is greater than 10 years and the coating type is other than Fusion Bonded Epoxy(FBE). In this paper as a practical experience in NISOC, Direct Assessment (DA) Method is used for identification SCC defect in unpiggable pipeline located downstream of compressor station.

Keywords: stress corrosion crack, direct assessment, disbondment, transgranular SCC, compressor station

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Authors: Venkata Madhusudana Rao Kapavarapu

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The Intermediate Slug Catcher (ISC) facility was built to process nominally 234 MSCFD of export gas from the booster station on a day-to-day basis and to receive liquid slugs up to 1600 m³ (10,000 BBLS) in volume when the incoming 24” gas pipelines are pigged following upsets or production of non-dew-pointed gas from gathering centers. The maximum slug sizes expected are 812 m³ (5100 BBLS) in winter and 542 m³ (3400 BBLS) in summer after operating for a month or more at 100 MMSCFD of wet gas, being 60 MMSCFD of treated gas from the booster station, combined with 40 MMSCFD of untreated gas from gathering center. The water content is approximately 60% but may be higher if the line is not pigged for an extended period, owing to the relative volatility of the condensate compared to water. In addition to its primary function as a slug catcher, the ISC facility will receive pigged liquids from the upstream and downstream segments of the 14” condensate pipeline, returned liquids from the AGRP, pigged through the 8” pipeline, and blown-down fluids from the 14” condensate pipeline prior to maintenance. These fluids will be received in the condensate flash vessel or the condensate separator, depending on the specific operation, for the separation of water and condensate and settlement of solids scraped from the pipelines. Condensate meeting the colour and 200 ppm water specifications will be dispatched to the AGRP through the 14” pipeline, while off-spec material will be returned to BS-171 via the existing 10” condensate pipeline. When they are not in operation, the existing 24” export gas pipeline and the 10” condensate pipeline will be maintained under export gas pressure, ready for operation. The gas manifold area contains the interconnecting piping and valves needed to align the slug catcher with either of the 24” export gas pipelines from the booster station and to direct the gas to the downstream segment of either of these pipelines. The manifold enables the slug catcher to be bypassed if it needs to be maintained or if through-pigging of the gas pipelines is to be performed. All gas, whether bypassing the slug catcher or returning to the gas pipelines from it, passes through black powder filters to reduce the level of particulates in the stream. These items are connected to the closed drain vessel to drain the liquid collected. Condensate from the booster station is transported to AGRP through 14” condensate pipeline. The existing 10” condensate pipeline will be used as a standby and for utility functions such as returning condensate from AGRP to the ISC or booster station or for transporting off-spec fluids from the ISC back to booster station. The manifold contains block valves that allow the two condensate export lines to be segmented at the ISC, thus facilitating bi-directional flow independently in the upstream and downstream segments, which ensures complete pipeline integrity and facility integrity. Pipeline failures will be attended to with the latest technologies by remote techno plug techniques, and repair activities will be carried out as needed. Pipeline integrity will be evaluated with ili pigging to estimate the pipeline conditions.

Keywords: integrity, oil & gas, innovation, new technology

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Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

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In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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Authors: Karima Chergui, Hichem Amrani, Hammoudi Mazouz, Fatiha Mezaache

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Cemented femoral resurfacings have experienced a revival for younger and more active patients. Future developments have shown that the uncemented version eliminates failures related to cementing implants. A three-dimensional finite element method (FEM) simulation was carried out in order to exploit a new resurfacing prothesis design named MARMEL, proposed by a recent study with Co–Cr–Mo material, for comparing a hip uncemented resurfacing with a novel carbon fiber/polyamide 12 (CF/PA12) composite to other hip resurfacing implants with various bio materials. From FE analysis, the von Mises stress range for the Composite hip resurfacing was much lower than that in the other hip resurfacing implants used in this comparison. These outcomes showed that the biomimetic hip resurfacing had the potential to reduce stress shielding and prevent from bone fracture compared to conventional hip resurfacing implants.

Keywords: biomechanics, carbon–fibre polyamide 12, finite element analysis, hip resurfacing

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Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Regional planning in health has gained speed for developing countries in recent years. In Turkey, 89 different Public Hospital Unions (PHUs) were conducted based on provincial levels. In this study technical efficiencies of 89 PHUs were examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and machine learning techniques by dividing them into two clusters in terms of similarities of input and output indicators. Number of beds, physicians and nurses determined as input variables and number of outpatients, inpatients and surgical operations determined as output indicators. Before performing DEA, PHUs were grouped into two clusters. It is seen that the first cluster represents PHUs which have higher population, demand and service density than the others. The difference between clusters was statistically significant in terms of all study variables (p ˂ 0.001). After clustering, DEA was performed for general and for two clusters separately. It was found that 11% of PHUs were efficient in general, additionally 21% and 17% of them were efficient for the first and second clusters respectively. It is seen that PHUs, which are representing urban parts of the country and have higher population and service density, are more efficient than others. Random forest decision tree graph shows that number of inpatients is a determinative factor of efficiency of PHUs, which is a measure of service density. It is advisable for public health policy makers to use statistical learning methods in resource planning decisions to improve efficiency in health care.

Keywords: public hospital unions, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, random forest

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Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Seyed Mohammad Navid Ghoreishi

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Investigation of fracture of wood components can prevent from catastrophic failures. Created fracture process zone (FPZ) in crack tip vicinity has important effect on failure of cracked composite materials. In this paper, a failure criterion for fracture investigation of cracked wood specimens under mixed mode I/II loading is presented. This criterion is based on maximum strain energy release rate and material nonlinearity in the vicinity of crack tip due to presence of microcracks. Verification of results with available experimental data proves the coincidence of the proposed criterion with the nature of fracture of wood. To simplify the estimation of nonlinear properties of FPZ, a damage factor is also introduced for engineering and application purposes.

Keywords: fracture criterion, mixed mode loading, damage zone, micro cracks

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Authors: Xin Chen

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It has been widely observed that marine food webs have significantly larger predator–prey body-size ratios compared with their terrestrial counterparts. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to account for such difference on the basis of primary productivity, trophic structure, biophysics, bioenergetics, habitat features, energy efficiency, etc. In this study, an alternative explanation is suggested based on the difference in the spatial dimensions of foraging arenas: terrestrial animals primarily forage in two dimensional arenas, while marine animals mostly forage in three dimensional arenas. Using 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional random walk simulations, it is shown that marine predators with 3-dimensional foraging would normally have a greater foraging efficiency than terrestrial predators with 2-dimensional foraging. Marine prey with 3-dimensional dispersion usually has greater swarms or aggregations than terrestrial prey with 2-dimensional dispersion, which again favours a greater predator foraging efficiency in marine animals. As an analytical tool, a Lotka-Volterra based adaptive dynamical model is developed with the predator-prey ratio embedded as an adaptive variable. The model predicts that high predator foraging efficiency and high prey conversion rate will dynamically lead to the evolution of a greater predator-prey ratio. Therefore, marine food webs with 3-dimensional foraging space, which generally have higher predator foraging efficiency, will evolve a greater predator-prey ratio than terrestrial food webs.

Keywords: predator-prey, body size, lotka-volterra, random walk, foraging efficiency

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Authors: S. Ziaran, M. Musil, M. Cekan, O. Chlebo

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The paper analyzes the response of buildings and industrially structures on seismic waves (low frequency mechanical vibration) generated by blasting operations. The principles of seismic analysis can be applied for different kinds of excitation such as: earthquakes, wind, explosions, random excitation from local transportation, periodic excitation from large rotating and/or machines with reciprocating motion, metal forming processes such as forging, shearing and stamping, chemical reactions, construction and earth moving work, and other strong deterministic and random energy sources caused by human activities. The article deals with the response of seismic, low frequency, mechanical vibrations generated by nearby blasting operations on a residential home. The goal was to determine the fundamental natural frequencies of the measured structure; therefore it is important to determine the resonant frequencies to design a suitable modal damping. The article also analyzes the package of seismic waves generated by blasting (Primary waves – P-waves and Secondary waves S-waves) and investigated the transfer regions. For the detection of seismic waves resulting from an explosion, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and modal analysis, in the frequency domain, is used and the signal was acquired and analyzed also in the time domain. In the conclusions the measured results of seismic waves caused by blasting in a nearby quarry and its effect on a nearby structure (house) is analyzed. The response on the house, including the fundamental natural frequency and possible fatigue damage is also assessed.

Keywords: building structure, seismic waves, spectral analysis, structural response

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Authors: Homin Kim, Hyungjo Byun, Jinyoung Do, Yongil Lee, Hyunho Shin, Seungbae Lee

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Engine room of mobile hydraulic vehicle is densely packed with an engine and many hydraulic components mostly generating heat and sound. Though hydraulic oil cooler, ATF cooler, and axle oil cooler etc. are added to vehicle cooling system of mobile vehicle, the overheating may cause downgraded performance and frequent failures. In order to improve thermal and acoustic environment of engine room, the computational approaches by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Boundary Element Method (BEM) are used together with necessary modal analysis of belt-driven system. The engine room design layout and process, which satisfies the design objectives of sound power level and temperature levels of radiator water, charged air cooler, transmission and hydraulic oil coolers, is discussed.

Keywords: acoustics, CFD, engine room design, mobile hydraulics

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Authors: Yrfet Shkreli

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Despite all the wide research and literature on the subject, changing and challenging times often present themselves with new objectives, fluid politics and everlasting point of views. Much is said about the subject and the trend nowadays is watching every EU intervention as a form of neo colonialism or a form of establishing new markets. The paper will try to establish a new perspective on EU influences, policies and impacts analyzed from multidimensional point of view, not limiting itself on a narrow external dimension, focusing on a broader understanding of it diverse contribution to global governance and peace keeping. Tending to be critical, this paper, tend to fall out of extremes, nether holding a Eurocentric position, nor falling for cheap critic to the whole failures and impact of EU policies. The ambition is to show EU as a contributing factor while keeping in mind its nature as a multi layered actor and with not necessarily coinciding interests among its member states.

Keywords: European Union, global governance, globalization, normative power

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Manal Suleiman, George Abu-Aqil, Uraib Sharaha, Klaris Riesenberg, Itshak Lapidot, Ahmad Salman, Mahmoud Huleihel

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Klebsiella pneumoniae is one of the most aggressive multidrug-resistant bacteria associated with human infections resulting in high mortality and morbidity. Thus, for an effective treatment, it is important to diagnose both the species of infecting bacteria and their susceptibility to antibiotics. Current used methods for diagnosing the bacterial susceptibility to antibiotics are time-consuming (about 24h following the first culture). Thus, there is a clear need for rapid methods to determine the bacterial susceptibility to antibiotics. Infrared spectroscopy is a well-known method that is known as sensitive and simple which is able to detect minor biomolecular changes in biological samples associated with developing abnormalities. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the potential of infrared spectroscopy in tandem with Random Forest and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to diagnose the susceptibility of Klebsiella pneumoniae to antibiotics within approximately 20 minutes following the first culture. In this study, 1190 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates were obtained from different patients with urinary tract infections. The isolates were measured by the infrared spectrometer, and the spectra were analyzed by machine learning algorithms Random Forest and XGBoost to determine their susceptibility regarding nine specific antibiotics. Our results confirm that it was possible to classify the isolates into sensitive and resistant to specific antibiotics with a success rate range of 80%-85% for the different tested antibiotics. These results prove the promising potential of infrared spectroscopy as a powerful diagnostic method for determining the Klebsiella pneumoniae susceptibility to antibiotics.

Keywords: urinary tract infection (UTI), Klebsiella pneumoniae, bacterial susceptibility, infrared spectroscopy, machine learning

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Authors: Yasuyo Makido, Vivek Shandas, David J. Sailor, M. Salim Ferwati

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Mitigating extreme urban heat is challenging in a desert climate such as Doha, Qatar, since outdoor daytime temperature area often too high for the human body to tolerate. Recent studies demonstrate that cities in arid and semiarid areas can exhibit ‘urban cool islands’ - urban areas that are cooler than the surrounding desert. However, the variation of temperatures as a result of the time of day and factors leading to temperature change remain at the question. To address these questions, we examined the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in Doha, Qatar by conducting multiple vehicle-base local temperature observations. We also employed three statistical approaches to model surface temperatures using relevant predictors: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) Regression Tree Analysis and (3) Random Forest for three time periods. Although the most important determinant factors varied by day and time, distance to the coast was the significant determinant at midday. A 70%/30% holdout method was used to create a testing dataset to validate the results through Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The Pearson’s analysis suggests that the Random Forest model more accurately predicts the surface temperatures than the other methods. We conclude with recommendations about the types of development patterns that show the greatest potential for reducing extreme heat in air climates.

Keywords: desert cities, tree-structure regression model, urban cool Island, vehicle temperature traverse

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Authors: Hu Ding, Kai Liu, Guoan Tang

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The Chinese Loess Plateau suffers from serious gully erosion induced by natural and human causes. Gully features detection including gully-affected area and its two dimension parameters (length, width, area et al.), is a significant task not only for researchers but also for policy-makers. This study aims at gully-affected area detection in three catchments of Chinese Loess Plateau, which were selected in Changwu, Ansai, and Suide by using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The methodology includes a sequence of UAV data generation, image segmentation, feature calculation and selection, and random forest classification. Two experiments were conducted to investigate the influences of segmentation strategy and feature selection. Results showed that vertical and horizontal root-mean-square errors were below 0.5 and 0.2 m, respectively, which were ideal for the Loess Plateau region. The segmentation strategy adopted in this paper, which considers the topographic information, and optimal parameter combination can improve the segmentation results. Besides, the overall extraction accuracy in Changwu, Ansai, and Suide achieved was 84.62%, 86.46%, and 93.06%, respectively, which indicated that the proposed method for detecting gully-affected area is more objective and effective than traditional methods. This study demonstrated that UAV can bridge the gap between field measurement and satellite-based remote sensing, obtaining a balance in resolution and efficiency for catchment-scale gully erosion research.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), object-analysis image analysis, gully erosion, gully-affected area, Loess Plateau, random forest

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Authors: Faiza Babur Khan, Sohail Asghar

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With an emergence of distributed environment, cloud computing is proving to be the most stimulating computing paradigm shift in computer technology, resulting in spectacular expansion in IT industry. Many companies have augmented their technical infrastructure by adopting cloud resource sharing architecture. Cloud computing has opened doors to unlimited opportunities from application to platform availability, expandable storage and provision of computing environment. However, from a security viewpoint, an added risk level is introduced from clouds, weakening the protection mechanisms, and hardening the availability of privacy, data security and on demand service. Issues of trust, confidentiality, and integrity are elevated due to multitenant resource sharing architecture of cloud. Trust or reliability of cloud refers to its capability of providing the needed services precisely and unfailingly. Confidentiality is the ability of the architecture to ensure authorization of the relevant party to access its private data. It also guarantees integrity to protect the data from being fabricated by an unauthorized user. So in order to assure provision of secured cloud, a roadmap or model is obligatory to analyze a security problem, design mitigation strategies, and evaluate solutions. The aim of the paper is twofold; first to enlighten the factors which make cloud security critical along with alleviation strategies and secondly to propose an intrusion detection model that identifies the attackers in a preventive way using machine learning Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99.8%. This model uses less number of features. A comparison with other classifiers is also presented.

Keywords: cloud security, threats, machine learning, random forest, classification

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

Pumping systems are an integral part of water desalination plants, their effective functioning is vital for the operation of a plant. In this research work, the reliability and availability of pressurized pumps in a reverse osmosis desalination plant are studied with the objective of finding configurations that provides optimal performance. Six configurations of a series system with different number of warm and cold standby components were examined. Closed form expressions for the mean time to failure (MTTF) and the long run availability are derived and compared under the assumption that the time between failures and repair times of the primary and standby components are exponentially distributed. Moreover, a cost/ benefit analysis is conducted in order to identify a configuration with the best performance and least cost. It is concluded that configurations with cold standby components are preferable especially when the pumps are of the size.

Keywords: availability, cost/benefit, mean time to failure, pumps

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Authors: Richard Colwell, Thomas Englert

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In cryogenic liquefaction processes, brazed aluminum core heat exchangers are used to minimize surface area/volume of the exchanger. Aluminum alloy (5083-H321; UNS A95083) piping must transition to higher melting point 304L stainless steel piping outside of the heat exchanger kettle or cold box for safety reasons. Since aluminum alloys and austenitic stainless steel cannot be directly welded to together, a transition joint consisting of 5 layers of different metals explosively bonded are used. Failures of two of these joints resulted in process shut-down and loss of revenue. Failure analyses, FEA analysis, and mock-up testing were performed by multiple teams to gain a further understanding into the failure mechanisms involved.

Keywords: explosion bonding, intermetallic compound, thermal strain, titanium-nickel Interface

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Authors: Fahem Belkacemi, Lyes Ouali

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Maintenance strategies and assessments continue to be a major concern for companies today. The socio-economic bets of their competitiveness are closely linked to the activities and quality of maintenance. This work deals with a study of a preventive maintenance plan to improve the availability of the production line within SAMSUNG HOME APPLIANCE “SAMHA”, Setif, Algeria. First, we applied the method of analysis of failure modes, their impact, and criticality to reduce downtime and identification of the most critical elements. Finally, to improve the availability of the production line, we carried out a study of the current preventive maintenance plan in the production line workshop at the company level and according to the history sheet of machine failures. We proposed a preventive maintenance plan to improve the availability of the production line.

Keywords: preventive maintenance, DRUM line, AMDEC, availability

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

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Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

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Authors: Mohsen Bahrami, Banafsheh Nikmehr, Yueqiang Song, Anuradha Koduru, Ayse K. Vuruskan, Hongkun Lu, Tamer M. Yalcinkaya

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In recent years, we have witnessed an explosion of studies aimed at using a combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and time-lapse imaging data on embryos to improve IVF outcomes. However, despite promising results, no study has used a matched cohort of transferred embryos which only differ in pregnancy outcome, i.e., embryos from a single clinic which are similar in parameters, such as: morphokinetic condition, patient age, and overall clinic and lab performance. Here, we used time-lapse data on embryos with known pregnancy outcomes to see if the rich spatiotemporal information embedded in this data would allow the prediction of the pregnancy outcome regardless of such critical parameters. Methodology—We did a retrospective analysis of time-lapse data from our IVF clinic utilizing Embryoscope 100% of the time for embryo culture to blastocyst stage with known clinical outcomes, including live birth vs nonpregnant (embryos with spontaneous abortion outcomes were excluded). We used time-lapse data from 200 elective single transfer embryos randomly selected from January 2019 to June 2021. Our sample included 100 embryos in each group with no significant difference in patient age (P=0.9550) and morphokinetic scores (P=0.4032). Data from all patients were combined to make a 4th order tensor, and feature extraction were subsequently carried out by a tensor decomposition methodology. The features were then used in a machine learning classifier to classify the two groups. Major Findings—The performance of the model was evaluated using 100 random subsampling cross validation (train (80%) - test (20%)). The prediction accuracy, averaged across 100 permutations, exceeded 80%. We also did a random grouping analysis, in which labels (live birth, nonpregnant) were randomly assigned to embryos, which yielded 50% accuracy. Conclusion—The high accuracy in the main analysis and the low accuracy in random grouping analysis suggest a consistent spatiotemporal pattern which is associated with pregnancy outcomes, regardless of patient age and embryo morphokinetic condition, and beyond already known parameters, such as: early cleavage or early blastulation. Despite small samples size, this ongoing analysis is the first to show the potential of AI methods in capturing the complex morphokinetic changes embedded in embryo time-lapse data, which contribute to successful pregnancy outcomes, regardless of already known parameters. The results on a larger sample size with complementary analysis on prediction of other key outcomes, such as: euploidy and aneuploidy of embryos will be presented at the meeting.

Keywords: IVF, embryo, machine learning, time-lapse imaging data

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Authors: Idris Adamu Idris

Abstract:

The Nigerian construction industry is faced with problems of failure of structures/buildings. These failures are attributed to the use of low quality construction materials of which sand crate bock is inclusive. The research was conducted to determine the compressive strength of hollow sand crate block (6”) using locally made cement (Sokoto cement). Samples were tested for 7, 14, 21 and 28 days for mix ratio of 1:3 to 1:12. From the laboratory results obtained, a mix ratio of 1:10 corresponding to a minimum compressive strength of 1.9N/mm2 at 7 days should be adopted. This satisfies the BS 2028, 1364 1986 which specified a minimum compressive strength of 1.8N/mm2 at 7 days. At 28 days of curing, the same mix ratio meets the minimum BS standard of 2.5N/mm2 .

Keywords: buildings, cement, construction, hollow sand crate block, Nigeria

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Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

Abstract:

Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: artificial Intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation

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Authors: Hasan Vural

Abstract:

In this study, innovation subject is explained firstly. Later the basic concepts of innovation and new food products development in marketing of bee products are investigated. Examples of the application of research results will be presented. Subject will be discussed benefiting from scientific studies based on literature review. Innovation is widely recognised as important to commercial success in the food industry, as both a major source of competitive advantage and the creation of a company’s future. However, the new product development process is described as being fraught with failures, with only approximately 10% of new products remaining on the market within a year of commercialisation. In addition, for every new food product that does reach commercialisation, there are likely to be many concepts that are rejected during the new food product development process. No roadmap exactly describes a route to a goal: exhortations to follow ‘10 Steps to a successful Product’ or use ‘Smith’s Method to Do Successful Products’ are, therefore, all approximations. Roadmaps do not describe the actual journey, only the general direction.

Keywords: innovation, agrofood product development, beekeeping products, honey marketing

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Authors: Sowmiyaa V. S., Tiruvengala Padma, Dhanasekaran B.

Abstract:

Due to urbanization, traffic congestion, air pollution and fuel consumption underground metros are constructed in urban cities nowadays. These metros reduce the commutation time and makes the daily transportation in urban cities hassle free. To construct the underground metros deep excavations are to be carried out. These excavations should be supported by an appropriate earth retaining structures to provide stability and to prevent deformation failures. The failure of deep excavations is catastrophic and hence appropriate caution need to be carried out during design and construction stages. This paper covers the construction aspects, equipment, quality control, design aspects of one of the earth retaining systems the Diaphragm Walls.

Keywords: underground metros, diaphragm wall, quality control of diaphragm wall, design aspects of diaphragm wall

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Authors: Esther O. Adebitan, Florence Oyelade

Abstract:

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was initiated by the UN member nations’ aspiration for the betterment of human life. It is expressed in a set of numerical ‎and time-bound targets. In more recent time, the aspiration is shifting away from just the achievement to the sustainability of achieved MDGs beyond the 2015 target. The main objective of this study was assessing how much the hotel industry within the Nigerian Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as a member of the global community is involved in the achievement of sustainable MDGs within the FCT. The study had two population groups consisting of 160 hotels and the communities where these are located. Stratified random sampling technique was adopted in selecting 60 hotels based on large, medium ‎and small hotels categorisation, while simple random sampling technique was used to elicit information from 30 residents of three of the hotels host communities. The study was guided by tree research questions and two hypotheses aimed to ascertain if hotels see the need to be involved in, and have policies in pursuit of achieving sustained MDGs, and to determine public opinion regarding hotels contribution towards the achievement of the MDGs in their communities. A 22 item questionnaire was designed ‎and administered to hotel managers while 11 item questionnaire was designed ‎and administered to hotels’ host communities. Frequency distribution and percentage as well as Chi-square were used to analyse data. Results showed no significant involvement of the hotel industry in achieving sustained MDGs in the FCT and that there was disconnect between the hotels and their immediate communities. The study recommended that hotels should, as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility pick at least one of the goals to work on in order to be involved in the attainment of enduring Millennium Development Goals.

Keywords: MDGs, hotels, FCT, host communities, corporate social responsibility

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