Search results for: portfolio choice

Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

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Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Chuan Yang, Jing Bie, Zhong Wang, Panagiotis Psimoulis

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Contemporary studies investigating the association between the spatial configuration of the urban network and economic activities at the street level were mostly conducted within space syntax conceptual framework. These findings supported the theory of 'movement economy' and demonstrated the impact of street configuration on the distribution of pedestrian movement and land-use shaping, especially retail activities. However, the effects varied between different urban contexts. In this paper, the relationship between economic activity distribution and the urban configurational characters was examined at the segment level. In the study area, three kinds of neighbourhood types, urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhood, were included. And among all neighbourhoods, three kinds of urban network form, 'tree-like', grid, and organic pattern, were recognised. To investigate the nested effects of urban configuration measured by space syntax approach and urban context, multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were constructed. Additionally, considering the spatial autocorrelation, spatial lag was also concluded in the model as an independent variable. The random effect ZINB model shows superiority over the ZINB model or multilevel linear (ML) model in the explanation of economic activities pattern shaping over the urban environment. And after adjusting for the neighbourhood type and network form effects, connectivity and syntax centrality significantly affect economic activities clustering. The comparison between accumulative and new established economic activities illustrated the different preferences for economic activity location choice.

Keywords: space syntax, economic activities, multilevel model, Chinese city

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Authors: Jovana M. Ćirković, Aleksandar M. Radojković, Sanja Z. Perać, Jelena N. Jovanović, Zorica M. Branković, Slobodan D. Milanović, Ivan Lj. Milenković, Jovan N. Dobrosavljević, Nemanja V. Simović, Vanja M. Tadić, Ana R. Žugić, Goran O. Branković

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The protection of forests is a national interest and of strategic importance in every country. The spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) is a damaging invasive pest that can weaken and destroy trees by defoliating them. Chemical pesticides commonly used to protect forests against spongy moths not only have a negative impact on terrestrial and aquatic organisms/ecosystems but also often fail to provide significant protection. Therefore, many eco-friendly alternatives have been considered. Within this research, a new biopesticide was developed based on the method of nanoencapsulation of plant extracts in a biopolymer matrix, which provides a slow release of the active components during a substantial time period. The antifeedant activity of plant extracts of common (Fraxinus excelsior L.), manna (F. ornus L.) ash tree, and the tree of heaven Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) was tested on the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L, 1758) larvae. To test the antifeedant activity of these compounds, the choice and non-choice tests in laboratory conditions for different plant extract concentrations (0.01, 0.1, 0.5, and 1 % v/v) were carried out. In both cases, the best results showed formulations based on the tree of heaven and common ash for the concentration of 1%, with deterioration indices of 163 and 132, respectively. The main benefit of these formulations is their versatility, effectiveness, prolonged effect, and because they are completely environmentally acceptable. Therefore, they can be considered for suppression of the spongy moth in forest ecosystems.

Keywords: Ailanthus altissima (Mill.), Fraxinus excelsior L., encapsulation, Lymantria dispar

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Authors: Marco Picco, Mahmood Alam

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Improving the energy performance of existing buildings can be challenging, particularly when facades cannot be modified, and the only available option is internal insulation. In such cases, the choice of the most suitable material becomes increasingly complex, as in addition to thermal transmittance and capital cost, the designer needs to account for the impact of the intervention on the internal spaces, and in particular the loss of usable space due to the additional layers of materials installed. This paper explores this issue by analysing a case study of an average office building needing to go through a refurbishment in order to reach the limits imposed by current regulations to achieve energy efficiency in buildings. The building is simulated through dynamic performance simulation under three different climate conditions in order to evaluate its energy needs. The use of Vacuum Insulated Panels as an option for energy refurbishment is compared to traditional insulation materials (XPS, Mineral Wool). For each scenario, energy consumptions are calculated and, in combination with their expected capital costs, used to perform a financial feasibility analysis. A holistic approach is proposed, taking into account the impact of the intervention on internal space by quantifying the value of the lost usable space and used in the financial feasibility analysis. The proposed approach highlights how taking into account different drivers will lead to the choice of different insulation materials, showing how accounting for the economic value of space can make VIPs an attractive solution for energy retrofitting under various climate conditions.

Keywords: vacuum insulated panels, building performance simulation, payback period, building energy retrofit

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Authors: Vânia Costa, Nuno De Sá Teixeira, Ana C. Santos, Eduardo Santos

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Financial literacy and numeracy have been regarded as paramount for rational household decision making in the increasing complexity of financial markets. However, financial decisions are often made under sub-optimal circumstances, including cognitive overload. The present study aims to clarify how financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant expert knowledge for financial decision-making, modulate possible effects of cognitive load. Participants were required to perform a choice between a sure loss or a gambling pertaining a financial investment, either with or without a competing memory task. Two experiments were conducted varying only the content of the competing task. In the first, the financial choice task was made while maintaining on working memory a list of five random letters. In the second, cognitive load was based upon the retention of six random digits. In both experiments, one of the items in the list had to be recalled given its serial position. Outcomes of the first experiment revealed no significant main effect or interactions involving cognitive load manipulation and numeracy and financial literacy skills, strongly suggesting that retaining a list of random letters did not interfere with the cognitive abilities required for financial decision making. Conversely, and in the second experiment, a significant interaction between the competing mnesic task and level of financial literacy (but not numeracy) was found for the frequency of choice of a gambling option. Overall, and in the control condition, both participants with high financial literacy and high numeracy were more prone to choose the gambling option. However, and when under cognitive load, participants with high financial literacy were as likely as their illiterate counterparts to choose the gambling option. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that financial literacy prevents intuitive risk-aversion reasoning only under highly favourable conditions, as is the case when no other task is competing for cognitive resources. In contrast, participants with higher levels of numeracy were consistently more prone to choose the gambling option in both experimental conditions. These results are discussed in the light of the opposition between classical dual-process theories and fuzzy-trace theories for intuitive decision making, suggesting that while some instances of expertise (as numeracy) are prone to support easily accessible gist representations, other expert skills (as financial literacy) depend upon deliberative processes. It is furthermore suggested that this dissociation between types of expert knowledge might depend on the degree to which they are generalizable across disparate settings. Finally, applied implications of the present study are discussed with a focus on how it informs financial regulators and the importance and limits of promoting financial literacy and general numeracy.

Keywords: decision making, cognitive load, financial literacy, numeracy

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Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

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Authors: Salvana P. M. Costa, Tarcyla A. Gomes, Giovanna C. R. M. Schver, Leslie R. M. Ferraz, Cristovão R. Silva, Magaly A. M. Lyra, Danilo A. F. Fonte, Larissa A. Rolim, Amanda C. Q. M. Vieira, Miracy M. Albuquerque, Pedro J. Rolim-neto

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Efavirenz (EFV) is considered one of the most widely used anti-HIV drugs. However, it is classified as a drug class II (poorly soluble, highly permeable) according to the biopharmaceutical classification system, presenting problems of absorption in the gastrointestinal tract and thereby inadequate bioavailability for its therapeutic action. This study aimed to overcome these barriers by developing and obtaining solid dispersions (SD) in order to increase the EFZ bioavailability. For the development of SD with EFV, theoretical and practical studies were initially performed. Thus, there was a choice of a carrier to be used. For this, it was analyzed the various criteria such as glass transition temperature of the polymer, intra- and intermolecular interactions of hydrogen bonds between drug and polymer, the miscibility between the polymer and EFV. The choice of the obtainment method of the SD came from the analysis of which method is the most consolidated in both industry and literature. Subsequently, the choice of drug and carrier concentrations in the dispersions was carried out. In order to obtain DS to present the drug in its amorphous form, as the DS were obtained, they were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD). SD are more stable the higher the amount of polymer present in the formulation. With this assumption, a SD containing 10% of drug was initially prepared and then this proportion was increased until the XRD showed the presence of EFV in its crystalline form. From this point, it was not produced SD with a higher concentration of drug. Thus, it was allowed to select PVP-K30, PVPVA 64 and the SOLUPLUS formulation as carriers, once it was possible the formation of hydrogen bond between EFV and polymers since these have hydrogen acceptor groups capable of interacting with the donor group of the drug hydrogen. It is worth mentioning also that the films obtained, independent of concentration used, were presented homogeneous and transparent. Thus, it can be said that the EFV is miscible in the three polymers used in the study. The SD and Physical Mixtures (PM) with these polymers were prepared by the solvent method. The EFV diffraction profile showed main peaks at around 2θ of 6,24°, in addition to other minor peaks at 14,34°, 17,08°, 20,3°, 21,36° and 25,06°, evidencing its crystalline character. Furthermore, the polymers showed amorphous nature, as evidenced by the absence of peaks in their XRD patterns. The XRD patterns showed the PM overlapping profile of the drug with the polymer, indicating the presence of EFV in its crystalline form. Regardless the proportion of drug used in SD, all the samples showed the same characteristics with no diffraction peaks EFV, demonstrating the behavior amorphous products. Thus, the polymers enabled, effectively, the formation of amorphous SD, probably due to the potential hydrogen bonds between them and the drug. Moreover, the XRD analysis showed that the polymers were able to maintain its amorphous form in a concentration of up to 80% drug.

Keywords: amorphous form, Efavirenz, solid dispersions, solubility

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Authors: Daniela Panico

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Framed by language socialization and family language policy theories, the present study explores the ways the language choice patterns of bilingual siblings contribute to the shaping of the language environment and the language practices of Italian/English families residing in Sydney. The main source of data is video recordings of naturally occurring parent-children and child-to-child interactions during everyday routines (i.e., family mealtimes and siblings playtime) in the home environment. Recurrent interactional practices are analyzed in detail through a conversational analytical approach. This presentation focuses on the interactional trajectories developing during the negotiation of language choices between all family members and between siblings in face-to-face interactions. Fine-grained analysis is performed on language negotiation sequences of multiparty bilingual conversations in order to uncover the sequential patterns through which a) the children respond to the parental strategies aiming to minority language maintenance, and b) the siblings influence each other’s language use and choice (e.g., older siblings positioning themselves as language teachers and language brokers, younger siblings accepting the role of apprentices). The findings show that, along with the parents, children are active socializing agents in the family and, with their linguistic behavior, they contribute to the establishment of a bilingual or a monolingual context in the home. Moreover, by orienting themselves towards the use of one or the other language in family talk, bilingual siblings are a major internal micro force in the language ecology of a bilingual family and can strongly support language maintenance or language shift processes in such domain. Overall, the study provides insights into the dynamic ways in which family language policy is interactionally negotiated and instantiated in bilingual homes as well as the challenges of intergenerational language transmission.

Keywords: bilingual siblings, family interactions, family language policy, language maintenance

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Authors: Omid Ghaffarzadeh Mollabashi, Sara Khorshidi, Hossein Kermanian Seyed, Majid Zabihzadeh

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The main problem that hinders the intensive use of non-wood raw materials in papermaking industry is the environmental pollution caused by black liquor. As a matter of fact, black liquor of nonwood pulping is discharged to the environment due to the lack of recovery. Traditionally, NaOH pulping produces Na-based black liquor that may increase soil erosion and reduce soil permeability. With substitution of KOH/NH4OH with NaOH as the cooking liquor, K and N can act as a soil fertilizer while offering an environmentally acceptable disposal alternative. For this purpose, rice straw samples were pulped under the following conditions; Constant factors were: straw weight: 100 gram (based on oven dry), liquor to straw ratio 7:1 and maximum temperature, 170 and 180 ºC. Variable factors for KOH cooks were: KOH dosage of 14, 17 and %20 on oven dry of straw and times at maximum temperature of 60 and 90 minutes. For KOH-NH4OH cooks, KOH dosage of 5 and %10 and NH4OH dosage of 25 and %35, both based as oven dry of straw were applied. Besides, time at maximum temperature was 90 minutes. Yield ranges of KOH and KOH-NH4OH pulp samples were obtained from 37.28 to 48.62 and 45.63 to 48.08 percent, respectively. In addition, Kappa number ranged from 21.91 to 29.85 and 55.15 to 56.25, respectively. In comparison with soda, soda-AQ, cold soda, kraft, EDA (dissolving), De-Ethylene Glycol (dissolving), burst and tensile index for KOH pulp was more in similar cooking condition. With an exception of soda pulps, tear index of the mentioned pulp is more than all compared treatments. Therefore, it can be resulted that KOH pulping method is an appropriate choice for making paper of the rice straw. Also, compared to KOH-NH4OH, KOH pulping method is more appropriate choice because of better pulping results.

Keywords: environmentally friendly process, rice straw, NH4OH-KOH pulping, pulp properties

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Authors: Laura Butabayeva, Svetlana Ismagulova, Gulbarshin Nogaibayeva, Maiya Temirbayeva, Aidana Zhussip

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Over the years of independence, Kazakhstan has not only ratified international documents regulating the rights of children to Inclusive education, but also developed its own inclusive educational policy. Along with this, the state pays particular attention to high school students' preparedness for professional self-determination. However, a number of problematic issues in this field have been revealed, such as the lack of systemic mechanisms coordinating stakeholders’ actions in preparing schoolchildren for a conscious choice of in-demand profession, meeting their individual capabilities and special educational needs (SEN). The analysis of the state’s current situation indicates school graduates’ adaptation to the labor market does not meet existing demands of the society. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan, about 70 % of Kazakhstani school graduates find themselves difficult to choose a profession, 87 % of schoolchildren make their career choice under the influence of parents and school teachers, 90 % of schoolchildren and their parents have no idea about the most popular professions on the market. The results of the study conducted by KorlanSyzdykova in 2016 indicated the urgent need of Kazakhstani school graduates in obtaining extensive information about in- demand professions and receiving professional assistance in choosing a profession in accordance with their individual skills, abilities, and preferences. The results of the survey, conducted by Information and Analytical Center among heads of colleges in 2020, showed that despite significant steps in creating conditions for students with SEN, they face challenges in studying because of poor career guidance provided to them in schools. The results of the study, conducted by the Center for Inclusive Education of the National Academy of Education named after Y. Altynsarin in the state’s general education schools in 2021, demonstrated the lack of career guidance, pedagogical and psychological support for children with SEN. To investigate these issues, the further study was conducted to examine the state of students’ career guidance and socialization, taking into account their SEN. The hypothesis of this study proposed that to prepare school graduates for a conscious career choice, school teachers and specialists need to develop their competencies in early identification of students' interests, inclinations, SEN and ensure necessary support for them. The state’s 5 regions were involved in the study according to the geographical location. The triangulation approach was utilized to ensure the credibility and validity of research findings, including both theoretical (analysis of existing statistical data, legal documents, results of previous research) and empirical (school survey for students, interviews with parents, teachers, representatives of school administration) methods. The data were analyzed independently and compared to each other. The survey included questions related to provision of pedagogical support for school students in making their career choice. Ethical principles were observed in the process of developing the methodology, collecting, analyzing the data and distributing the results. Based on the results, methodological recommendations on students’ career guidance for school teachers and specialists were developed, taking into account the former’s individual capabilities and SEN.

Keywords: career guidance, children with special educational needs, inclusive education, Kazakhstan

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Authors: A. Robbin

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Language selection can be an efficient negotiation strategy employed by both service or product providers and their customers to achieve transactional success. The transactional scenario in Gbagi Market, Ibadan, Nigeria provides an appropriate setting for the exploration of the Nigerian multilingual situation with its own interesting linguistic peculiarities which questions the functionality of the ‘Lingua Franca’ in trade situations. This study examined English Language proficiency among Yoruba Traders in Gbagi Market, Ibadan and its use as determinants of transactional success during service encounters. Randomly selected Yoruba-English bilingual traders and customers were administered questionnaires and the data subjected to statistical and descriptive analysis using Giles Communication Accommodation Theory. Findings reveal that only fifty percent of the traders used for the study were proficient in speaking English language. Traders with minimal proficiency in Standard English, however, resulted in the use of the Nigerian Pidgin English. Both traders and customers select the Mother Tongue, which is the Yoruba Language during service encounters but are quick to converge to the other’s preferred language as the transactional exchange demands. The English language selection is not so much for the prestige or lingua franca status of the language as it is for its functions, which include ease of communication, negotiation, and increased sales. The use of English during service encounters is mostly determined by customer’s linguistic preference which the trader accommodates to for better negotiation and never as a first choice. This convergence is found to be beneficial as it ensures sales and return patronage. Although the English language is not a preferred code choice in Gbagi Market, it serves a functional trade strategy for transactional success during service encounters in the market.

Keywords: communication accommodation theory, language selection, proficiency, service encounter, transaction

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Authors: Zineddine Bouyahiaoui, Rabah Haoui

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The aim of this work is to analyze a flow around the axisymmetric blunt body taken into account the chemical and vibrational nonequilibrium flow. This work concerns the entry of spacecraft in the atmosphere of the planet Mars. Since the equations involved are non-linear partial derivatives, the volume method is the only way to solve this problem. The choice of the mesh and the CFL is a condition for the convergence to have the stationary solution.

Keywords: blunt body, finite volume, hypersonic flow, viscous flow

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Authors: I. Iremashvili, I. Pirtskhalaishvili, K. Kiknadze, F. Lortkipanidze

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The paper deals with the causes of rockfall and its possible consequences on slopes adjacent to motorways and railways. A list of measures is given that hinder rockfall; these measures are directed at protecting roads from rockfalls, and not preventing them. From the standpoint of local stability of slopes the main effective measure is perhaps strengthening their surface by the method of filling, which will check or end (or both) the process of deformation, local slipping off, sliding off and development of erosion.

Keywords: rockfall, concrete spraying, heliodevices, railways

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Authors: Dorothy Chyung

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In the psychiatric interview, the mental status exam begins with an assessment of the patient's appearance, noting aspects such as grooming and hygiene. However, it is not well established whether further examination of a patient's attire can provide further useful information. The popular assumption is that those who are mentally unwell will manifest this in unusual clothing. In the moral treatment of the 19th century, proper clothing was also seen as a pivotal therapeutic concern. This project examines assumptions about clothing, both as a reflection of and treatment for psychopathology. The methodology considers the opinions expressed in 19th century art and journals, as well as asylum rules, in comparison to contemporary psychiatric practice and research evidence. Per moral treatment in the 19th century, self-discipline and a proper environment would cure insanity. Madness was evident in the opposite of these ideals—such as ragged or ‘improper’ clothing—and rules about attire delineated the most correct (i.e. sane) ways to dress. These rules applied not only for the patients but also for staff. Despite these ideals, accusations were made that asylums, in fact, dressed patients to look more mentally unwell and further removed patients’ agency. Current practice in psychiatric hospitals retains remnants of moral treatment. Patients are expected to dress ‘appropriately’ while retaining some choice to build self-esteem, with arguments about safety being used to justify the removal of choice. Meanwhile, staff is expected to dress professionally and as role models, based on the assumption that conservative dress is least pathological. Research on this subject is limited, and there is little evidence that discrete psychiatric diagnoses manifest in the particular dress, nor that conservative dress would result in a reduction in pathology. Dressing unusually has become a privilege granted only to those without association with mental illness.

Keywords: fashion, history of psychiatry, medical humanities, mental health treatment

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Authors: J. Bastos, P. Marques, S. Batterman, F. Freire

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Due to demands of a growing urban population, it is crucial to manage urban development and its associated environmental impacts. While most of the environmental analyses have addressed buildings and transportation separately, both the design and location of a building affect environmental performance and focusing on one or the other can shift impacts and overlook improvement opportunities for more sustainable urban development. Recently, several life-cycle (LC) studies of residential buildings have integrated user transportation, focusing exclusively on primary energy demand and/or greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, most papers considered only private transportation (mainly car). Although it is likely to have the largest share both in terms of use and associated impacts, exploring the variability associated with mode choice is relevant for comprehensive assessments and, eventually, for supporting decision-makers. This paper presents a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of a residential building in Lisbon (Portugal), addressing building construction, use and user transportation (commuting with private and public transportation). Five environmental indicators or categories are considered: (i) non-renewable primary energy (NRE), (ii) greenhouse gas intensity (GHG), (iii) eutrophication (EUT), (iv) acidification (ACID), and (v) ozone layer depletion (OLD). In a first stage, the analysis addresses the overall life-cycle considering the statistical model mix for commuting in the residence location. Then, a comparative analysis compares different available transportation modes to address the influence mode choice variability has on the results. The results highlight the large contribution of transportation to the overall LC results in all categories. NRE and GHG show strong correlation, as the three LC phases contribute with similar shares to both of them: building construction accounts for 6-9%, building use for 44-45%, and user transportation for 48% of the overall results. However, for other impact categories there is a large variation in the relative contribution of each phase. Transport is the most significant phase in OLD (60%); however, in EUT and ACID building use has the largest contribution to the overall LC (55% and 64%, respectively). In these categories, transportation accounts for 31-38%. A comparative analysis was also performed for four alternative transport modes for the household commuting: car, bus, motorcycle, and company/school collective transport. The car has the largest results in all impact categories. When compared to the overall LC with commuting by car, mode choice accounts for a variability of about 35% in NRE, GHG and OLD (the categories where transportation accounted for the largest share of the LC), 24% in EUT and 16% in ACID. NRE and GHG show a strong correlation because all modes have internal combustion engines. The second largest results for NRE, GHG and OLD are associated with commuting by motorcycle; however, for ACID and EUT this mode has better performance than bus and company/school transport. No single transportation mode performed best in all impact categories. Integrated assessments of buildings are needed to avoid shifts of impacts between life-cycle phases and environmental categories, and ultimately to support decision-makers.

Keywords: environmental impacts, LCA, Lisbon, transport

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Authors: Hurgesa Hundera, Samuel Shibeshibikeko, Tarike Daba, Tesfaye Ganamo

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The study aimed at examining the ongoing adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in response to climate variability in Boset district. It also assessed the socioeconomic factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate variability risk. For attaining the objectives of the study, both primary and secondary sources of data were employed. The primary data were obtained through a household questionnaire, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and observations, while secondary data were acquired through desk review. Questionnaires were distributed and filled by 328 respondents, and they were identified through systematic random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model were applied in this study as the main analytical methods. The findings of the study reveal that the sample households have utilized multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate variability, such as cropping early mature crops, planting drought resistant crops, growing mixed crops on the same farm lands, and others. The results of the binary logistic model revealed that education, sex, age, family size, off farm income, farm experience, access to climate information, access to farm input, and farm size were significant and key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate variability in the study area. To enable effective adaptation measures, Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource, with its regional bureaus and offices and concerned non–governmental organizations, should consider climate variability in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision making.

Keywords: adaptation strategies, boset district, climate variability, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Joseph M. Njoroge

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The need for urgent adaptation have triggered tourism stakeholders and research community to develop generic adaptation framework(s) for national, regional and or local tourism desti-nations. Such frameworks have been proposed to guide the tourism industry in the adaptation process with an aim of reducing tourism industry’s vulnerability and to enhance their ability to cope to climate associated externalities. However research show that current approaches are far from sustainability since the adaptation options sought are usually closely associated with development needs-‘business as usual’-where the implication of adaptation to social justice and environmental integrity are often neglected. Based on this view there is a need to look at adaptation beyond addressing vulnerability and resilience to include the need for adaptation to enhance social justice and environmental integrity. This paper reviews the existing adaptation frameworks/models and evaluates their suitability in enhancing sustainable adaptation for regional tourist destinations. It is noted that existing frameworks contradicts the basic ‘principles of sustainable adaptation’. Further attempts are made to propose a Sustainable Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework (SRTAF) to assist regional tourism stakeholders in the achieving sustainable adaptation.

Keywords: sustainable adaptation, sustainability principles, sustainability portfolio, Regional Tourism

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Authors: Dana Pugach, Michal Tamir

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Most criminal cases end with a plea agreement, an issue whose many aspects have been discussed extensively in legal literature. One important feature, however, has gained little notice, and that is crime victims’ place in plea agreements following the federal Crime Victims Rights Act of 2004. This law has provided victims some meaningful and potentially revolutionary rights, including the right to be heard in the proceeding and a right to appeal against a decision made while ignoring the victim’s rights. While victims’ rights literature has always emphasized the importance of such right, references to this provision in the general literature about plea agreements are sparse, if existing at all. Furthermore, there are a few cases only mentioning this right. This article purports to bridge between these two bodies of legal thinking – the vast literature concerning plea agreements and victims’ rights research– by using behavioral economics. The article will, firstly, trace the possible structural reasons for the failure of this right to be materialized. Relevant incentives of all actors involved will be identified as well as their inherent consequential processes that lead to the victims’ rights malfunction. Secondly, the article will use nudge theory in order to suggest solutions that will enhance incentives for the repeat players in the system (prosecution, judges, defense attorneys) and lead to the strengthening of weaker group’s interests – the crime victims. Behavioral psychology literature recognizes that the framework in which an individual confronts a decision can significantly influence his decision. Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein developed the idea of ‘choice architecture’ - ‘the context in which people make decisions’ - which can be manipulated to make particular decisions more likely. Choice architectures can be changed by adjusting ‘nudges,’ influential factors that help shape human behavior, without negating their free choice. The nudges require decision makers to make choices instead of providing a familiar default option. In accordance with this theory, we suggest a rule, whereby a judge should inquire the victim’s view prior to accepting the plea. This suggestion leaves the judge’s discretion intact; while at the same time nudges her not to go directly to the default decision, i.e. automatically accepting the plea. Creating nudges that force actors to make choices is particularly significant when an actor intends to deviate from routine behaviors but experiences significant time constraints, as in the case of judges and plea bargains. The article finally recognizes some far reaching possible results of the suggestion. These include meaningful changes to the earlier stages of criminal process even before reaching court, in line with the current criticism of the plea agreements machinery.

Keywords: plea agreements, victims' rights, nudge theory, criminal justice

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Authors: Chi Nguyen Thi Quynh, Steven Schilizzi, Atakelty Hailu, Sayed Iftekhar

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Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries (TURFs) have been emerged as a promising tool for fisheries conservation and management. However, illegal fishing has undermined the effectiveness of TURFs, profoundly degrading global fish stocks and marine ecosystems. Conservation and management of fisheries, therefore, largely depends on effectiveness of enforcing fishing regulations, which needs co-enforcement by fishers. However, fishers tend to resist monitoring participation, as their views towards monitoring scheme design has not been received adequate attention. Fishers’ acceptability of a monitoring scheme is likely to be achieved if there is a mechanism allowing fishers to engage in the early planning and design stages. This study carried out a choice experiment with 396 fishers in Vietnam to elicit fishers’ preferences for monitoring scheme and to estimate the relative importance that fishers place on the key design elements. Preference heterogeneity was investigated using a Scale-Adjusted Latent Class Model that accounts for both preference and scale variance. Welfare changes associated with the proposed monitoring schemes were also examined. It is found that there are five distinct preference classes, suggesting that there is no one-size-fits-all scheme well-suited to all fishers. Although fishers prefer to be compensated more for their participation, compensation is not a driving element affecting fishers’ choice. Most fishers place higher value on other elements, such as institutional arrangements and monitoring capacity. Fishers’ preferences are driven by their socio-demographic and psychological characteristics. Understanding of how changes in design elements’ levels affect the participation of fishers could provide policy makers with insights useful for monitoring scheme designs tailored to the needs of different fisher classes.

Keywords: Design of monitoring scheme, Enforcement, Heterogeneity, Illegal Fishing, Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries

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Authors: Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang

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Background and purpose: Cancer diagnosis is part of a complex stochastic process, in which patients' personal and social characteristics influence the choice of diagnosing methods, diagnosing methods, in turn, influence the initial assessment of cancer stage, the initial assessment, in turn, influences the choice of treating methods, and treating methods in turn influence cancer outcomes such as cancer survival. To evaluate diagnosing methods, one needs to estimate and test the causal effect of a regime of cancer diagnosis and treatments. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to estimate and test these causal effects via point effects. The purpose of the work is to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The cancer stage has influences from earlier diagnosis as well as on subsequent treatments. As a consequence, it is highly difficult to estimate and test the causal effects via standard parameters, that is, the conditional survival given all stationary covariates, diagnosing methods, cancer stage and prognosis factors, treating methods. Instead of standard parameters, we use the point effects of cancer diagnosis and treatments to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments. We are able to use familiar methods in the framework of single-point causal inference to accomplish the task. Achievements: we have applied this method to stomach cancer survival from a clinical study in Sweden. We have studied causal effects under various regimes, including the optimal regime of diagnosis and treatments and the effect moderation of the causal effect by age and gender.

Keywords: cancer diagnosis, causal effect, point effect, G-formula, sequential causal effect

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Authors: Ayse Ozbil, Gorsev Argin, Demet Yesiltepe

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Data for this cross-sectional study were drawn from questionnaires conducted in 10 elementary schools (1000 students, ages 12-14) located in Istanbul, Turkey. School environments (1600 meter buffers around the school) were evaluated through GIS-based land-use data (parcel level land use density) and street-level topography. Street networks within the same buffers were evaluated by using angular segment analysis (Integration and Choice) implemented in Depthmap as well as two segment-based connectivity measures, namely Metric and Directional Reach implemented in GIS. Segment Angular Integration measures how accessible each space from all the others within the radius using the least angle measure of distance. Segment Angular Choice which measures how many times a space is selected on journeys between all pairs of origins and destinations. Metric Reach captures the density of streets and street connections accessible from each individual road segment. Directional Reach measures the extent to which the entire street network is accessible with few direction changes. In addition, socio-economic characteristics (annual income, car ownership, education-level) of parents, obtained from parental questionnaires, were also included in the analysis. It is shown that surrounding street network configuration is strongly associated with both walk-mode shares and average walking distances to/from schools when controlling for parental socio-demographic attributes as well as land-use compositions and topographic features in school environments. More specifically, findings suggest that the scale at which urban form has an impact on pedestrian travel is considerably larger than a few blocks around the school.

Keywords: Istanbul, street network layout, urban form, walking to/from school

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: Lindrianasari Stefanie, Aminah Khairudin

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This study aims to provide empirical evidence regarding the ability of Price to Earnings Ratio and PEG Ratio in predicting future stock returns issuers. The samples used in this study are stocks that go into LQ45. The main contribution is to assign empirical evidence if the PEG Ratio can provide optimum return compared to Price to Earnings Ratio. This study used a sample of the entire company into the group LQ45 with the period of observation. The data used is limited to the financial statements of a company incorporated in LQ45 period July 2013-July 2014, using the financial statements and the position of the company's closing stock price at the end of 2010 as a reference benchmark for the growth of the company's stock price compared to the closing price of 2013. This study found that the method of PEG Ratio can outperform the method of PE ratio in predicting future returns on the stock portfolio of LQ45.

Keywords: price to earnings growth, price to earnings ratio, future returns, stock price

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Authors: X. Han, S. Duan, C. Liu, C. Zhou, W. Zhu, L. Kong

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The ionic imprinting technique refers to the three-dimensional rigid structure with the fixed pore sizes, which was formed by the binding interactions of ions and functional monomers and used ions as the template, it has a high level of recognition to the ionic template. The preparation of monolithic column by the in-situ polymerization need to put the compound of template, functional monomers, cross-linking agent and initiating agent into the solution, dissolve it and inject to the column tube, and then the compound will have a polymerization reaction at a certain temperature, after the synthetic reaction, we washed out the unread template and solution. The monolithic columns are easy to prepare, low consumption and cost-effective with fast mass transfer, besides, they have many chemical functions. But the monolithic columns have some problems in the practical application, such as low-efficiency, quantitative analysis cannot be performed accurately because of the peak shape is wide and has tailing phenomena; the choice of polymerization systems is limited and the lack of theoretical foundations. Thus the optimization of components and preparation methods is an important research direction. During the preparation of ionic imprinted monolithic columns, pore-forming agent can make the polymer generate the porous structure, which can influence the physical properties of polymer, what’ s more, it can directly decide the stability and selectivity of polymerization reaction. The compounds generated in the pre-polymerization reaction could directly decide the identification and screening capabilities of imprinted polymer; thus the choice of pore-forming agent is quite critical in the preparation of imprinted monolithic columns. This article mainly focuses on the research that when using different pore-forming agents, the impact of zinc ion imprinted monolithic column on the enrichment performance of zinc ion.

Keywords: high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), ionic imprinting, monolithic column, pore-forming agent

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Authors: Sanja Šurdonja, Aleksandra Deluka-Tibljaš, Mirna Klobučar, Irena Ištoka Otković

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Roundabouts are a common choice in the case of reconstruction of an intersection, whether it is to improve the capacity of the intersection or traffic safety, especially in urban conditions. The regulation for the design of roundabouts is often related to driving culture, the tradition of using this type of intersection, etc. Individual values in the regulation are usually recommended in a wide range (this is the case in Croatian regulation), and the final design of a roundabout largely depends on the designer's experience and his/her choice of design elements. Therefore, before-after analyses are a good way to monitor the performance of roundabouts and possibly improve the recommendations of the regulation. This paper presents a comprehensive before-after analysis of a roundabout on the country road network near Rijeka, Croatia. The analysis is based on a thorough collection of traffic data (operating speeds and traffic load) and design elements data, both before and after the reconstruction into a roundabout. At the chosen location, the roundabout solution aimed to improve capacity and traffic safety. Therefore, the paper analyzed the collected data to see if the roundabout achieved the expected effect. A traffic microsimulation model (VISSIM) of the roundabout was created based on the real collected data, and the influence of the increase of traffic load and different traffic structures, as well as of the selected design elements on the capacity of the roundabout, were analyzed. Also, through the analysis of operating speeds and potential conflicts by application of the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM), the traffic safety effect of the roundabout was analyzed. The results of this research show the practical value of before-after analysis as an indicator of roundabout effectiveness at a specific location. The application of a microsimulation model provides a practical method for analyzing intersection functionality from a capacity and safety perspective in present and changed traffic and design conditions.

Keywords: before-after analysis, operating speed, capacity, design.

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Authors: Rebecca J. Hafner, Daniel Read, David Elmes

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The current research applies decision making theory in order to address the problem of increasing uptake of energy-efficient technologies in the market place, where uptake is currently slower than one might predict following rational choice models. Specifically, in two studies we apply the alignable/non-alignable features effect and explore the impact of varying information structure on the consumers’ preference for standard versus energy efficient technologies. As researchers in the Interdisciplinary centre for Storage, Transformation and Upgrading of Thermal Energy (i-STUTE) are currently developing energy efficient heating systems for homes and businesses, we focus on the context of home heating choice, and compare preference for a standard condensing boiler versus an energy efficient heat pump, according to experimental manipulations in the structure of prior information. In Study 1, we find that people prefer stronger alignable features when options are similar; an effect which is mediated by an increased tendency to infer missing information is the same. Yet, in contrast to previous research, we find no effects of alignability on option preference when options differ. The advanced methodological approach used here, which is the first study of its kind to randomly allocate features as either alignable or non-alignable, highlights potential design effects in previous work. Study 2 is designed to explore the interaction between alignability and construal level as an explanation for the shift in attentional focus when options differ. Theoretical and applied implications for promoting energy efficient technologies are discussed.

Keywords: energy-efficient technologies, decision-making, alignability effects, construal level theory, CO2 reduction

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Authors: Xinyi Xu

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This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

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Authors: Qiaowen Lin

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The 3D cadastre is an inevitable choice to meet the needs of real cadastral management. Nowadays, more attention is given to the technical aspects of 3D cadastre, resulting in the imbalance within this field. To fulfill this research gap, the stakeholder, which has been regarded as the determining factor in cadastral change has been studied. Delphi method, Michael rating, and stakeholder mapping are used to identify and classify the stakeholders in 3D cadastre. It is concluded that the project managers should pay more attention to the interesting appeal of the key stakeholders and different coping strategies should be adopted to facilitate the transition to 3D cadastre.

Keywords: stakeholders, three dimension, cadastre, transtion

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Authors: Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale, Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford

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In view of the requirements of the current industrial processes, the instrumentation plays a critical role. In this context, this work aims to raise some the operating characteristics of the level and flow transmitters, in addition to observing their similarities and possible limitations for certain configurations.

Keywords: flow, level, instrumentation, configurations of meters, method of choice of the meters, instrumentation in the industrial processes

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Authors: Harish Aryal

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The safe and reliable operation of nuclear reactors has always been one of the topmost priorities in the nuclear industry. Transient testing allows us to understand the time-dependent behavior of the neutron population in response to either a planned change in the reactor conditions or unplanned circumstances. These unforeseen conditions might occur due to sudden reactivity insertions, feedback, power excursions, instabilities, and accidents. To study such behavior, we need transient testing, which is like car crash testing, to estimate the durability and strength of a car design. In nuclear designs, such transient testing can simulate a wide range of accidents due to sudden reactivity insertions and helps to study the feasibility and integrity of the fuel to be used in certain reactor types. This testing involves a high neutron flux environment and real-time imaging technology with advanced instrumentation with appropriate accuracy and resolution to study the fuel slumping behavior. With the aid of transient testing and adequate imaging tools, it is possible to test the safety basis for reactor and fuel designs that serves as a gateway in licensing advanced reactors in the future. To that end, it is crucial to fully understand advanced imaging techniques both analytically and via simulations. This paper presents an innovative method of supporting real-time imaging of fuel pins and other structures during transient testing. The major fuel-motion detection device that is studied in this dissertation is the Hodoscope which requires collimators. This paper provides 1) an MCNP model and simulation of a Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) core with a central fuel element replaced by a slotted fuel element that provides an open path between test samples and a hodoscope detector and 2) a choice of good filter to improve image resolution.

Keywords: hodoscope, transient testing, collimators, MCNP, TREAT, hodogram, filters

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