Search results for: fuzzy time series

Authors: Daniel Fulus Fom, Gau Patrick Damulak

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In this study, the Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Jordan Recurrent Neural Network (JRNN) models were employed to model the forecasting performance of the daily turbidity flow of White Clay Creek (WCC). The two methods were applied to the log difference series of the daily turbidity flow series of WCC. The measurements of error employed to investigate the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA and JRNN models are the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The outcome of the investigation revealed that the forecasting performance of the JRNN technique is better than the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA technique in the mean square error sense. The results of the ARFIMA and JRNN models were obtained by the simulation of the models using MATLAB version 8.03. The significance of using the log difference series rather than the difference series is that the log difference series stabilizes the turbidity flow series than the difference series on the ARFIMA and JRNN.

Keywords: auto regressive, mean absolute error, neural network, root square mean error

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Authors: Nousheen Hashmi, Shoab Ahmad Khan

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Active collaboration among the green energy sources and the load demand leads to serious issues related to power quality and stability. The growing number of green energy resources and Distributed-Generators need newer strategies to be incorporated for their operations to keep the power energy stability among green energy resources and micro-grid/Utility Grid. This paper presents a novel technique for energy power management in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic with energy storage system under set of constraints including weather conditions, Load Shedding Hours, Peak pricing Hours by using rule-based fuzzy smart grid controller to schedule power coming from multiple Power sources (photovoltaic, grid, battery) under the above set of constraints. The technique fuzzifies all the inputs and establishes fuzzify rule set from fuzzy outputs before defuzzification. Simulations are run for 24 hours period and rule base power scheduler is developed. The proposed fuzzy controller control strategy is able to sense the continuous fluctuations in Photovoltaic power generation, Load Demands, Grid (load Shedding patterns) and Battery State of Charge in order to make correct and quick decisions.The suggested Fuzzy Rule-based scheduler can operate well with vague inputs thus doesn’t not require any exact numerical model and can handle nonlinearity. This technique provides a framework for the extension to handle multiple special cases for optimized working of the system.

Keywords: photovoltaic, power, fuzzy logic, distributed generators, state of charge, load shedding, membership functions

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Authors: Mario M. Figueroa de la Cruz, Claudia I. Solorzano, Raul Acosta, Ignacio Funes

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This technological development project seeks to create a tool that allows companies, in need of implementing a Data Center, intelligently determining factors for allocating resources support cooling and power supply (UPS) in its conception. The results should show clearly the speed, robustness and reliability of a system designed for deployment in environments where they must manage and protect large volumes of data.

Keywords: telecommunications, data center, fuzzy logic, expert systems

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Authors: Kejal Khatri, Vishnu Narayan Mishra

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We compute the degree of approximation of functions\tilde{f}\in H_w, a new Banach space using (T.E^1) summability means of conjugate Fourier series. In this paper, we extend the results of Singh and Mahajan which in turn generalizes the result of Lal and Yadav. Some corollaries have also been deduced from our main theorem and particular cases.

Keywords: conjugate Fourier series, degree of approximation, Hölder metric, matrix summability, product summability

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Authors: Asma Hanif, A. I. K. Butt, Shabir Ahmad, Rahim Ud Din, Mustafa Inc

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This paper is devoted to a study of the fuzzy fractional mathematical model reviewing the transmission dynamics of the infectious disease Covid-19. The proposed dynamical model consists of susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, quarantine, hospitalized and recovered compartments. In this study, we deal with the fuzzy fractional model defined in Caputo’s sense. We show the positivity of state variables that all the state variables that represent different compartments of the model are positive. Using Gronwall inequality, we show that the solution of the model is bounded. Using the notion of the next-generation matrix, we find the basic reproduction number of the model. We demonstrate the local and global stability of the equilibrium point by using the concept of Castillo-Chavez and Lyapunov theory with the Lasalle invariant principle, respectively. We present the results that reveal the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the considered model through the fixed point theorem of Schauder and Banach. Using the fuzzy hybrid Laplace method, we acquire the approximate solution of the proposed model. The results are graphically presented via MATLAB-17.

Keywords: Caputo fractional derivative, existence and uniqueness, gronwall inequality, Lyapunov theory

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Magda M. Madbouly, Murad B. Khorsheed

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Sign Languages (SL) are the most accomplished forms of gestural communication. Therefore, their automatic analysis is a real challenge, which is interestingly implied to their lexical and syntactic organization levels. Hidden Markov models (HMM’s) have been used prominently and successfully in speech recognition and, more recently, in handwriting recognition. Consequently, they seem ideal for visual recognition of complex, structured hand gestures such as are found in sign language. In this paper, several results concerning static hand gesture recognition using an algorithm based on Type-2 Fuzzy HMM (T2FHMM) are presented. The features used as observables in the training as well as in the recognition phases are based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). SVD is an extension of Eigen decomposition to suit non-square matrices to reduce multi attribute hand gesture data to feature vectors. SVD optimally exposes the geometric structure of a matrix. In our approach, we replace the basic HMM arithmetic operators by some adequate Type-2 fuzzy operators that permits us to relax the additive constraint of probability measures. Therefore, T2FHMMs are able to handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties existing universally in the sequential data. Experimental results show that T2FHMMs can effectively handle noise and dialect uncertainties in hand signals besides a better classification performance than the classical HMMs. The recognition rate of the proposed system is 100% for uniform hand images and 86.21% for cluttered hand images.

Keywords: hand gesture recognition, hand detection, type-2 fuzzy logic, hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Sergey Sorokin, Irina Sorokina, Alexander Yazenin

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We present a solution to the Maxmin u/E parameters estimation problem of possibility distributions in m-dimensional case. Our method is based on geometrical approach, where minimal area enclosing ellipsoid is constructed around the sample. Also we demonstrate that one can improve results of well-known algorithms in fuzzy model identification task using Maxmin u/E parameters estimation.

Keywords: possibility distribution, parameters estimation, Maxmin u\E estimator, fuzzy model identification

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Authors: Zuhier Altawallbeh

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This paper investigates the approximate analytical solutions of general form of Volterra integro-differential equations system by using the residual power series method (for short RPSM). The proposed method produces the solutions in terms of convergent series requires no linearization or small perturbation and reproduces the exact solution when the solution is polynomial. Some examples are given to demonstrate the simplicity and efficiency of the proposed method. Comparisons with the Laplace decomposition algorithm verify that the new method is very effective and convenient for solving system of pantograph equations.

Keywords: integro-differential equation, pantograph equations, system of initial value problems, residual power series method

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Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

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This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Niyongabo Elyse

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Prefabricated building construction is a pioneering approach that combines design, production, and assembly to attain energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and economic feasibility. Despite continuous development in the industry in China, the low technical maturity of standardized design, factory production, and construction assembly introduces uncertainties affecting prefabricated component production and on-site assembly processes. This research focuses on enhancing project management performance under uncertainty to help enterprises navigate these challenges and optimize project resources. The study introduces a perspective on how uncertain factors influence the implementation of prefabricated building construction projects. It proposes a theoretical model considering project process management ability, adaptability to uncertain environments, and collaboration ability of project participants. The impact of uncertain factors is demonstrated through case studies and quantitative analysis, revealing constraints on implementation time, cost, quality, and safety. To address uncertainties in prefabricated component production scheduling, a fuzzy model is presented, expressing processing times in interval values. The model utilizes a cooperative co-evolution evolution algorithm (CCEA) to optimize scheduling, demonstrated through a real case study showcasing reduced project duration and minimized effects of processing time disturbances. Additionally, the research addresses on-site assembly construction scheduling, considering the relationship between task processing times and assigned resources. A multi-objective model with fuzzy activity durations is proposed, employing a hybrid cooperative co-evolution evolution algorithm (HCCEA) to optimize project scheduling. Results from real case studies indicate improved project performance in terms of duration, cost, and resilience to processing time delays and resource changes. The study also introduces a multistage dynamic process control model, utilizing IoT technology for real-time monitoring during component production and construction assembly. This approach dynamically adjusts schedules when constraints arise, leading to enhanced project management performance, as demonstrated in a real prefabricated housing project. Key contributions include a fuzzy prefabricated components production scheduling model, a multi-objective multi-mode resource-constrained construction project scheduling model with fuzzy activity durations, a multi-stage dynamic process control model, and a cooperative co-evolution evolution algorithm. The integrated mathematical model addresses the complexity of prefabricated building construction project management, providing a theoretical foundation for practical decision-making in the field.

Keywords: prefabricated construction, project management performance, uncertainty, fuzzy scheduling

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Authors: Noha Seddik, Sherine Youssef, Mohamed Kholeif

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The automated epileptic seizure detection research field has emerged in the recent years; this involves analyzing the Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals instead of the traditional visual inspection performed by expert neurologists. In this study, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) that uses Weighted Permutation Entropy (WPE) as the input feature is proposed for classifying normal and seizure EEG records. WPE is a modified statistical parameter of the permutation entropy (PE) that measures the complexity and irregularity of a time series. It incorporates both the mapped ordinal pattern of the time series and the information contained in the amplitude of its sample points. The proposed system utilizes the fact that entropy based measures for the EEG segments during epileptic seizure are lower than in normal EEG.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), epileptic seizure detection, weighted permutation entropy (WPE), support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Selim M. Khan, Dustin D. Pearson, Tryggve Rönnqvist, Markus E. Nielsen, Joshua M. Taron, Aaron A. Goodarzi

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Accumulation of radioactive radon gas in indoor air poses a serious risk to human health by increasing the lifetime risk of lung cancer and is classified by IARC as a category one carcinogen. Radon exposure risks are a function of geologic, geographic, design, and human behavioural variables and can change over time. Using time series and deep machine learning modelling, we analyzed long-term radon test outcomes as a function of building metrics from 25,489 Canadian and 38,596 Swedish residential properties constructed between 1945 to 2020. While Canadian and Swedish properties built between 1970 and 1980 are comparable (96–103 Bq/m³), innate radon risks subsequently diverge, rising in Canada and falling in Sweden such that 21st Century Canadian houses show 467% greater average radon (131 Bq/m³) relative to Swedish equivalents (28 Bq/m³). These trends are consistent across housing types and regions within each country. The introduction of energy efficiency measures within Canadian and Swedish building codes coincided with opposing radon level trajectories in each nation. Deep machine learning modelling predicts that, without intervention, average Canadian residential radon levels will increase to 176 Bq/m³ by 2050, emphasizing the importance and urgency of future building code intervention to achieve systemic radon reduction in Canada.

Keywords: radon health risk, time-series, deep machine learning, lung cancer, Canada, Sweden

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki, Danuta Szwajca

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The growing importance of reputation in building enterprise value and achieving long-term competitive advantage creates the need for its measurement and evaluation for the management purposes (effective reputation and its risk management). The paper presents practical application of self-developed corporate reputation assessment model from the viewpoint of stock market investors. The model has a pioneer character and example analysis performed for selected industry is a form of specific test for this tool. In the proposed solution, three aspects - informational, financial and development, as well as social ones - were considered. It was also assumed that the individual sub-criteria will be based on public sources of information, and as the calculation apparatus, capable of obtaining synthetic final assessment, fuzzy logic will be used. The main reason for developing this model was to fulfill the gap in the scope of synthetic measure of corporate reputation that would provide higher degree of objectivity by relying on "hard" (not from surveys) and publicly available data. It should be also noted that results obtained on the basis of proposed corporate reputation assessment method give possibilities of various internal as well as inter-branch comparisons and analysis of corporate reputation impact.

Keywords: corporate reputation, fuzzy logic, fuzzy model, stock market investors

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Authors: Aysegul Sener, Gonca Tuncel Memis, Mirac Kamislioglu

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Chaos theory is one of the new paradigms of science since the last century. After determining chaos in the weather systems by Edward Lorenz the popularity of the theory was increased. Chaos is observed in many natural systems and studies continue to defect chaos to other natural systems. Acid rain is one of the environmental problems that have negative effects on environment and acid rains values are monitored continuously. In this study, we aim that analyze the chaotic behavior of acid rains in Turkey with the chaotic defecting approaches. The data of pH degree of rain waters, concentration of sulfate and nitrate data of wet rain water samples in the rain collecting stations which are located in different regions of Turkey are provided by Turkish State Meteorology Service. Lyapunov exponents, reconstruction of the phase space, power spectrums are used in this study to determine and predict the chaotic behaviors of acid rains. As a result of the analysis it is found that acid rain time series have positive Lyapunov exponents and wide power spectrums and chaotic behavior is observed in the acid rain time series.

Keywords: acid rains, chaos, chaotic analysis, Lypapunov exponents

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Authors: Ravneil Nand

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Cooperative coevolution uses problem decomposition methods to solve a larger problem. The problem decomposition deals with breaking down the larger problem into a number of smaller sub-problems depending on their method. Different problem decomposition methods have their own strengths and limitations depending on the neural network used and application problem. In this paper we are introducing a new problem decomposition method known as Hidden-Neuron Level Decomposition (HNL). The HNL method is competing with established problem decomposition method in time series prediction. The results show that the proposed approach has improved the results in some benchmark data sets when compared to the standalone method and has competitive results when compared to methods from literature.

Keywords: cooperative coevaluation, feed forward network, problem decomposition, neuron, synapse

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Authors: Samir Zeghlache, Abderrahmen Bouguerra, Kamel Kara, Djamel Saigaa

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The control of the trirotor helicopter includes nonlinearities, uncertainties and external perturbations that should be considered in the design of control laws. This paper presents a control strategy for an underactuated six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) trirotor helicopter, based on the coupling of the fuzzy logic control and sliding mode control (SMC). The main purpose of this work is to eliminate the chattering phenomenon. To achieve our purpose we have used a fuzzy logic control to generate the hitting control signal, also the non linear observer is then synthesized in order to estimate the unmeasured states. Finally simulation results are included to indicate the trirotor UAV with the proposed controller can greatly alleviate the chattering effect and remain robust to the external disturbances.

Keywords: fuzzy sliding mode control, trirotor helicopter, dynamic modelling, underactuated systems

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Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

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Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: empirical mode decomposition (EMD), mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting

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Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

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With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

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Authors: Ibrahim Can, Fatih Tosunoğlu

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The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95 % of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey

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Authors: Sung Hyun Yoo, In Hwan Choi, Jun Ho Jung, Choon Ki Ahn, Myo Taeg Lim

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Home energy management system (HEMS) has been issued to reduce the power consumption. The HEMS performs electric power control for the indoor electric device. However, HEMS commonly treats the smart devices. In this paper, we suggest the output estimation of home legacy device using the artificial neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). This paper discusses the overview and the architecture of the system. In addition, accurate performance of the output estimation using the ANFIS inference system is shown via a numerical example.

Keywords: artificial neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), home energy management system (HEMS), smart device, legacy device

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Authors: Harish Krishnamurthy, Anna Lafontant, Ren Yi

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Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.

Keywords: time-series clustering, feature extraction, hoax prediction, geospatial events

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Authors: Yuzuru Mitsui, Takashi Ikegami

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The exponents of Taylor’s law in deterministic chaotic systems are computed, and their meanings are intensively discussed. Taylor’s law is the scaling relationship between the mean and variance (in both space and time) of population abundance, and this law is known to hold in a variety of ecological time series. The exponents found in the temporal Taylor’s law are different from those of the spatial Taylor’s law. The temporal Taylor’s law is calculated on the time series from the same locations (or the same initial states) of different temporal phases. However, with the spatial Taylor’s law, the mean and variance are calculated from the same temporal phase sampled from different places. Most previous studies were done with stochastic models, but we computed the temporal and spatial Taylor’s law in deterministic systems. The temporal Taylor’s law evaluated using the same initial state, and the spatial Taylor’s law was evaluated using the ensemble average and variance. There were two main discoveries from this work. First, it is often stated that deterministic systems tend to have the value two for Taylor’s exponent. However, most of the calculated exponents here were not two. Second, we investigated the relationships between chaotic features measured by the Lyapunov exponent, the correlation dimension, and other indexes with Taylor’s exponents. No strong correlations were found; however, there is some relationship in the same model, but with different parameter values, and we will discuss the meaning of those results at the end of this paper.

Keywords: chaos, density effect, population dynamics, Taylor’s law

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Authors: V. Yu. Volgutov, A. I. Orlova, S. A. Khainakov

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NaZr2(PO4)3 (NZP) and their structural analogues are characterized by a peculiar behaviors on heating – they have different expansion and contraction along different crystallographic directions due to specific arrangements of crystal structure in these compounds. An important feature of such structures is the ability to incorporate into their structural analogues wide variety of metal cations having different size and oxidation states, with different combinations and concentrations. These cations are located in different crystallographic non-equivalent positions of octahedral tetrahedral crystal framework as well as in inter-framework cavities. Through, due to iso- and hetero-valent isomorphism of the cations (and the anions) in NZP, it becomes possible to tuning the compositions and to obtain the compounds with ‘on a plan’ properties. For the design of compounds with low and ultra-low thermal expansion including those with tailored thermal expansion properties, the following crystallochemical principles it seems are promising: 1) Insertion into crystal M1 position the cations having different sizes and, 2) the variation in the composition of compounds, providing different occupation of crystal M1 position. Following these principles we have designed and synthesized the next NZP-type phosphates series: a) where radii of the cations in the M1 crystal position was varied: Zr1/4Zr2(PO4)3 - Th1/4Zr2(PO4)3 (series I); R1/3Zr2(PO4)3 where R= Nd, Eu, Er (series II), b) where the occupation of M1 crystal position was varied: Zr1/4Zr2(PO4)3-Er1/3Zr2(PO4)3 (series III) and Zr1/4Zr2(PO4)3-Sr1/2Zr2(PO4)3 (series IV). The thermal expansion parameters were determined over the range of 25-800ºC. For each series the minimum axial coefficient of thermal expansion αa = αb, αc and their anisotropy Δα = Iαa - αcI, 10-6 K-1 was found as next: -1.51, 1.07, 2.58 for Th1/4Zr2(PO4)3 (series I); -0.72, 0.10, 0.81 for Nd1/3Zr2(PO4)3 (series II); -2.78, 1.35, 4.12 for Er1/6Zr1/8Zr2(PO4)3 (series III); 2.23, 1.32, 0.91 for Sr1/2Zr2(PO4)3 (series IV). The measured tendencies of the thermal expansion of crystals were in good agreement with predicted ones. For one of the members from the studied phosphates namely Th1/16Zr3/16Zr2(PO4)3 structural refinement have been carried out at 25, 200, 600, and 800°C. The dependencies of the structural parameters with the temperature have been determined.

Keywords: high-temperature crystallography, NaZr2(PO4)3, (NZP) analogs, structural-chemical principles, tuning thermal expansion

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Authors: Feleke Tsegaye

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The work in this thesis mainly focuses on trajectory tracking of fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicle (FWUAV) by using fuzzy based sliding mode controller(FSMC) for surveillance applications. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are general-purpose aircraft built to fly autonomously. This technology is applied in a variety of sectors, including the military, to improve defense, surveillance, and logistics. The model of FWUAV is complex due to its high non-linearity and coupling effect. In this thesis, input decoupling is done through extracting the dominant inputs during the design of the controller and considering the remaining inputs as uncertainty. The proper and steady flight maneuvering of UAVs under uncertain and unstable circumstances is the most critical problem for researchers studying UAVs. A FSMC technique was suggested to tackle the complexity of FWUAV systems. The trajectory tracking control algorithm primarily uses the sliding-mode (SM) variable structure control method to address the system’s control issue. In the SM control, a fuzzy logic control(FLC) algorithm is utilized in place of the discontinuous phase of the SM controller to reduce the chattering impact. In the reaching and sliding stages of SM control, Lyapunov theory is used to assure finite-time convergence. A comparison between the conventional SM controller and the suggested controller is done in relation to the chattering effect as well as tracking performance. It is evident that the chattering is effectively reduced, the suggested controller provides a quick response with a minimum steady-state error, and the controller is robust in the face of unknown disturbances. The designed control strategy is simulated with the nonlinear model of FWUAV using the MATLAB® / Simulink® environments. The simulation result shows the suggested controller operates effectively, maintains an aircraft’s stability, and will hold the aircraft’s targeted flight path despite the presence of uncertainty and disturbances.

Keywords: fixed-wing UAVs, sliding mode controller, fuzzy logic controller, chattering, coupling effect, surveillance, finite-time convergence, Lyapunov theory, flight path

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Reza Nematirad, Anil Pahwa, Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Abstract:

Time series data consist of successive data points collected over a period of time. Accurate prediction of future values is essential for informed decision-making in several real-world applications, including electricity load demand forecasting, lifetime estimation of industrial machinery, traffic planning, weather prediction, and the stock market. Due to their critical relevance and wide application, there has been considerable interest in time series forecasting in recent years. However, the proliferation of sensors and IoT devices, real-time monitoring systems, and high-frequency trading data introduce significant intricate temporal variations, rapid changes, noise, and non-linearities, making time series forecasting more challenging. Classical methods such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing aim to extract pre-defined temporal variations, such as trends and seasonality. While these methods are effective for capturing well-defined seasonal patterns and trends, they often struggle with more complex, non-linear patterns present in real-world time series data. In recent years, deep learning has made significant contributions to time series forecasting. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their variants, such as Long short-term memory (LSTMs) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), have been widely adopted for modeling sequential data. However, they often suffer from the locality, making it difficult to capture local trends and rapid fluctuations. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), particularly Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), leverage convolutional layers to capture temporal dependencies by applying convolutional filters along the temporal dimension. Despite their advantages, TCNs struggle with capturing relationships between distant time points due to the locality of one-dimensional convolution kernels. Transformers have revolutionized time series forecasting with their powerful attention mechanisms, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and relationships between distant time points. However, the attention mechanism may struggle to discern dependencies directly from scattered time points due to intricate temporal patterns. Lastly, Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) have also been employed, with models like N-BEATS and LightTS demonstrating success. Despite this, MLPs often face high volatility and computational complexity challenges in long-horizon forecasting. To address intricate temporal variations in time series data, this study introduces Times2D, a novel framework that parallelly integrates 2D spectrogram and derivative heatmap techniques. The spectrogram focuses on the frequency domain, capturing periodicity, while the derivative patterns emphasize the time domain, highlighting sharp fluctuations and turning points. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of powerful computer vision techniques to capture various intricate temporal variations. To evaluate the performance of Times2D, extensive experiments were conducted on standard time series datasets and compared with various state-of-the-art algorithms, including DLinear (2023), TimesNet (2023), Non-stationary Transformer (2022), PatchTST (2023), N-HiTS (2023), Crossformer (2023), MICN (2023), LightTS (2022), FEDformer (2022), FiLM (2022), SCINet (2022a), Autoformer (2021), and Informer (2021) under the same modeling conditions. The initial results demonstrated that Times2D achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. Furthermore, the generality of the Times2D framework allows it to be applied to various tasks such as time series imputation, clustering, classification, and anomaly detection, offering potential benefits in any domain that involves sequential data analysis.

Keywords: derivative patterns, spectrogram, time series forecasting, times2D, 2D representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Lotfi Farah, Nadir Farah, Zaiem Kamar

Abstract:

This paper achieves a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) controller using a high-efficiency reduced rules neuro-fuzzy inference system (HE2RNF) for a 100 kW stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) system connected to the grid. The suggested HE2RNF based MPPT seeks the optimal duty cycle for the boost DC-DC converter, making the designed PV system working at the maximum power point (MPP), then transferring this power to the grid via a three levels voltage source converter (VSC). PV current variation and voltage variation are chosen as HE2RNF-based MPPT controller inputs. By using these inputs with the duty cycle as the only single output, a six rules ANFIS is generated. The high performance of the proposed HE2RNF numerically in the MATLAB/Simulink environment is shown. The 0.006% steady-state error, 0.006s of tracking time, and 0.088s of starting time prove the robustness of this six reduced rules against the widely used twenty-five ones.

Keywords: PV, MPPT, ANFIS, HE2RNF-based MPPT controller, VSC, grid connection

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: José M. Brotons, Manuel E. Sansalvador

Abstract:

The relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and financial performance (FP) is a subject of great interest that has not yet been resolved. In this work, we have developed a new and original tool to measure this relation. The tool quantifies the value contributed to companies that are committed to CSR. The theoretical model used is the fuzzy discounted cash flow method. Two assumptions have been considered, the first, the company has implemented the IQNet SR10 certification, and the second, the company has not implemented that certification. For the first one, the growth rate used for the time horizon is the rate maintained by the company after obtaining the IQNet SR10 certificate. For the second one, both, the growth rates company prior to the implementation of the certification, and the evolution of the sector will be taken into account. By using triangular fuzzy numbers, it is possible to deal adequately with each company’s forecasts as well as the information corresponding to the sector. Once the annual growth rate of the sales is obtained, the profit and loss accounts are generated from the annual estimate sales. For the remaining elements of this account, their regression with the nets sales has been considered. The difference between these two valuations, made in a fuzzy environment, allows obtaining the value of the IQNet SR10 certification. Although this study presents an innovative methodology to quantify the relation between CSR and FP, the authors are aware that only one company has been analyzed. This is precisely the main limitation of this study which in turn opens up an interesting line for future research: to broaden the sample of companies.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, case study, financial performance, company valuation

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Dejan Tanikić, Jelena Đoković, Saša Kalinović, Miodrag Manić, Saša Ranđelović

Abstract:

This paper deals with measuring and modelling of the quality of the machined surface of the metal machining process. The average surface roughness (R_a) which represents the quality of the machined part was measured during the dry turning of the AISI 4140 steel. A large number of factors with the unknown relations among them influences this parameter, and that is why mathematical modelling is extremely complicated. Different values of cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut (cutting regime) and workpiece hardness causes different surface roughness values. Modelling with soft computing techniques may be very useful in such cases. This paper presents the usage of the fuzzy logic-based system for determining metal machining process parameter in order to find the proper values of cutting regimes.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, metal machining, process modeling, surface roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 158