Search results for: M estimate

Authors: Kwangmin Joo

Abstract:

Automatic detection of lumbar vertebrae and classification method is proposed for evaluating the degree of disc narrowing. Prior to classification, deep learning based segmentation is applied to detect individual lumbar vertebra. M-net is applied to segment five lumbar vertebrae and fine-tuning segmentation is employed to improve the accuracy of segmentation. Using the features extracted from previous step, clustering technique, k-means clustering, is applied to estimate the degree of disc space narrowing under four grade scoring system. As preliminary study, techniques proposed in this research could help building an automatic scoring system to diagnose the severity of disc narrowing from X-ray images.

Keywords: Disc space narrowing, Degenerative disc disorders, Deep learning based segmentation, Clustering technique

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Authors: Luke Onyekakeyah, Cynthia Onyekakeyah

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The conflict in Northeastern Nigeria could mar local and international efforts to salvage the drying Lake Chad, which at present is merely 20 per cent of its original size. The conflict which began in 2009, assumed a monstrous dimension to the extent that any prospects of a redeeming action on the Lake is bleak. The concern of the authorities in the basin countries is how to bring the conflict to an end in the interest of the ecologically-dependent riparian population. Lake Chad is Africa’s fourth largest lake. From a previous 388,500 km2 some 600, 000 years ago, the Lake has shrunk to a maximum length of 25,000 km2. During the last four decades, the Lake has been susceptible to increasing variability and irregular rainfall. Dry spell, excessive evaporation and sandstorm have adversely affected the Lake, such that a 2001 estimate put the Lake to a meager 19,000 km2. Given the critical importance of the Lake as a source of livelihood for over 20 million people, there is mounting concern that an unprecedented human and ecological catastrophe is unfolding, should the Lake eventually dries up. The study evaluates the Lake Chad and how the conflict has adversely impacted it.

Keywords: lake chad, conflict, salvage, Nigeria

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Authors: Ovais S. Qadri, Abhaya K. Srivastava

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Present experiments were carried to study the drying kinetics and quality of microwave foam-mat dried guava powder. Guava pulp was microwave foam mat dried using 8% egg albumin as foaming agent and then dried at microwave power 480W, 560W, 640W, 720W and 800W, foam thickness 3mm, 5mm and 7mm and inlet air temperature of 40˚C and 50˚C. Weight loss was used to estimate change in drying rate with respect to time. Powdered samples were analysed for various physicochemical quality parameters viz. acidity, pH, TSS, colour change and ascorbic acid content. Statistical analysis using three-way ANOVA revealed that sample of 5mm foam thickness dried at 800W and 50˚C was the best with 0.3584% total acid, 3.98 pH, 14min drying time, 8˚Brix TSS, 3.263 colour change and 154.762mg/100g ascorbic acid content.

Keywords: foam mat drying, foam mat guava, guava powder, microwave drying

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Authors: Samir Zeghlache, Abderrahmen Bouguerra, Kamel Kara, Djamel Saigaa

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The control of the trirotor helicopter includes nonlinearities, uncertainties and external perturbations that should be considered in the design of control laws. This paper presents a control strategy for an underactuated six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) trirotor helicopter, based on the coupling of the fuzzy logic control and sliding mode control (SMC). The main purpose of this work is to eliminate the chattering phenomenon. To achieve our purpose we have used a fuzzy logic control to generate the hitting control signal, also the non linear observer is then synthesized in order to estimate the unmeasured states. Finally simulation results are included to indicate the trirotor UAV with the proposed controller can greatly alleviate the chattering effect and remain robust to the external disturbances.

Keywords: fuzzy sliding mode control, trirotor helicopter, dynamic modelling, underactuated systems

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Authors: Mariyappan Shanmugam, Bin Yu

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Schottky-barrier solar cells are demonstrated employing 2D-layered MoS2 and WS2 semiconductor nanofilms as photo-active material candidates synthesized by chemical vapor deposition method. Large area MoS2 and WS2 nanofilms are stacked by layer transfer process to achieve thicker photo-active material studied by atomic force microscopy showing a thickness in the range of ~200 nm. Two major vibrational active modes associated with 2D-layered MoS2 and WS2 are studied by Raman spectroscopic technique to estimate the quality of the nanofilms. Schottky-barrier solar cells employed MoS2 and WS2 active materials exhibited photoconversion efficiency of 1.8 % and 1.7 % respectively. Fermi-level pinning at metal/semiconductor interface, electronic transport and possible recombination mechanisms are studied in the Schottky-barrier solar cells.

Keywords: two-dimensional nanosheet, graphene, hexagonal boron nitride, solar cell, Schottky barrier

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Authors: Ali Heydarimoghim

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In this paper, the optimal placement of charging and discharging stations is done to determine the location and capacity of the stations, reducing the cost of electric vehicle owners' losses, reducing the cost of distribution system losses, and reducing the costs associated with the stations. Also, observing the permissible limits of the bus voltage and the capacity of the stations and their distance are considered as constraints of the problem. Given the traffic situation in different areas of a city, we estimate the amount of energy required to charge and the amount of energy provided to discharge electric vehicles in each area. We then introduce the electricity distribution system of the city in question. Following are the scenarios for introducing the problem and introducing the objective and constraint functions. Finally, the simulation results for different scenarios are compared.

Keywords: charging & discharging stations, hybrid vehicles, optimization, replacement

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Authors: Masaya Yoshikawa, Toshiya Asai, Ryoma Matsuhisa, Yusuke Nozaki, Kensaku Asahi

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Recently, side-channel attacks, which estimate secret keys using side-channel information such as power consumption and compromising emanations of cryptography circuits embedded in hardware, have become a serious problem. In particular, electromagnetic analysis attacks against cryptographic circuits between information processing and electromagnetic fields, which are related to secret keys in cryptography circuits, are the most threatening side-channel attacks. Therefore, it is important to evaluate tamper resistance against electromagnetic analysis attacks for cryptography circuits. The present study performs basic examination of the tamper resistance of cryptography circuits using electromagnetic analysis attacks with noise resources.

Keywords: tamper resistance, cryptographic circuit, hardware security evaluation, noise resources

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Authors: Rashidah Omar, Suzeini Abdul Halim, Aini Janteng

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The coefficients estimate problem for Taylor-Maclaurin series is still an open problem especially for a function in the subclass of bi-univalent functions. A function f ϵ A is said to be bi-univalent in the open unit disk D if both f and f^-1 are univalent in D. The symbol A denotes the class of all analytic functions f in D and it is normalized by the conditions f(0) = f’(0) – 1=0. The class of bi-univalent is denoted by  The subordination concept is used in determining second and third Taylor-Maclaurin coefficients. The upper bound for second and third coefficients is estimated for functions in the subclasses of bi-univalent functions which are subordinated to the function φ. An analytic function f is subordinate to an analytic function g if there is an analytic function w defined on D with w(0) = 0 and |w(z)| < 1 satisfying f(z) = g[w(z)]. In this paper, two subclasses of bi-univalent functions associated with Hohlov operator are introduced. The bound for second and third coefficients of functions in these subclasses is determined using subordination. The findings would generalize the previous related works of several earlier authors.

Keywords: analytic functions, bi-univalent functions, Hohlov operator, subordination

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Authors: Raja Rajeswari K

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Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM), a multi Carrier transmission technique that has been used in implementing the majority of wireless applications like Wireless Network Protocol Standards (like IEEE 802.11a, IEEE 802.11n), in telecommunications (like LTE, LTE-Advanced) and also in Digital Audio & Video Broadcast standards. The latest research and development in the area of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, Universal Filtered Multi Carrier (UFMC) & Filtered OFDM (F-OFDM) has attracted lots of attention for wideband wireless communications. In this paper UFMC & F-OFDM system are implemented and comparative analysis are carried out in terms of M-ary QAM modulation scheme over Dolph-chebyshev filter & rectangular window filter and to estimate Bit Error Rate (BER) over Rayleigh fading channel.

Keywords: UFMC, F-OFDM, BER, M-ary QAM

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Authors: Eng. Alaa K. Satti Salih

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Revolutions Applications such as telecommunications, hands-free communications, recording, etc. which need at least one microphone, the signal is usually infected by noise and echo. The important application is the speech enhancement, which is done to remove suppressed noises and echoes taken by a microphone, beside preferred speech. Accordingly, the microphone signal has to be cleaned using digital signal processing DSP tools before it is played out, transmitted, or stored. Engineers have so far tried different approaches to improving the speech by get back the desired speech signal from the noisy observations. Especially Mobile communication, so in this paper will do reconstruction of the speech signal, observed in additive background noise, using the Kalman filter technique to estimate the parameters of the Autoregressive Process (AR) in the state space model and the output speech signal obtained by the MATLAB. The accurate estimation by Kalman filter on speech would enhance and reduce the noise then compare and discuss the results between actual values and estimated values which produce the reconstructed signals.

Keywords: autoregressive process, Kalman filter, Matlab, noise speech

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Authors: Bing-Bing E. Goh

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Plant counting is a labour intensive and time-consuming task for the farmers. However, it is an important indicator for farmers to make decisions on subsequent field management. This study is to evaluate the potential of Sentinel-2 images using statistical analysis to retrieve information on plant density for monitoring, especially during critical period at the beginning of March. The model was calibrated with in-situ data from 19 winter wheat fields in Republic of Ireland during the crop growing season in 2019-2020. The model for plant density resulted in R2 = 0.77, RMSECV = 103 and NRMSE = 14%. This study has shown the potential of using Sentinel-2 to estimate plant density and quantify plant establishment to effectively monitor crop progress and to ensure proper field management.

Keywords: winter wheat, remote sensing, crop monitoring, multivariate analysis

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

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A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well established formulae of spur gears. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

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This paper studies the susceptibility of local settlements in the gulf of Oman mangrove forest zone to flooding and progressesconsiderate of acuities and reactions to historical and present coastal flooding.it is indirect thaterosionsproduced in coastal zones by the change of mangrove undergrowthsubsequent from the enduring influence of persons since the late 19th century. Confronted with the increasing impact of climate change on climate ambitiousalarms such as flooding and biodiversity damage, handling the relationship between mangroves and their atmosphere has become authoritative for their defense. Coastal flood dangers are increasing quickly. We offer high resolution approximations of the financial value of mangroves forests for flood risk discount. We progress a probabilistic, process-based estimate of the properties of mangroves on avoidanceharms to people and property. More significantly, it also establishes how the incessantsqualor of this significant ecosystem has the potential to unfavorably influence the future cyclone persuadeddangers in the area.

Keywords: mangrove forest, coastal, flood, erosion

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Authors: Lydia Tan, Philippe Lemey, Lieselot Houspie, Marco Viveen, Darren Martin, Frank Coenjaerts

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Introduction: Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) is the leading cause of severe respiratory tract infections in infants under the age of two. Genomic substitutions and related evolutionary dynamics of hRSV are of great influence on virus transmission behavior. The evolutionary patterns formed are due to a precarious interplay between the host immune response and RSV, thereby selecting the most viable and less immunogenic strains. Studying genomic profiles can teach us which genes and consequent proteins play an important role in RSV survival and transmission dynamics. Study design: In this study, genetic diversity and evolutionary rate analysis were conducted on 36 RSV subgroup B whole genome sequences and 37 subgroup A genome sequences. Clinical RSV isolates were obtained from nasopharyngeal aspirates and swabs of children between 2 weeks and 5 years old of age. These strains, collected during epidemic seasons from 2001 to 2011 in the Netherlands and Belgium by either conventional or 454-sequencing. Sequences were analyzed for genetic diversity, recombination events, synonymous/non-synonymous substitution ratios, epistasis, and translational consequences of mutations were mapped to known 3D protein structures. We used Bayesian statistical inference to estimate the rate of RSV genome evolution and the rate of variability across the genome. Results: The A and B profiles were described in detail and compared to each other. Overall, the majority of the whole RSV genome is highly conserved among all strains. The attachment protein G was the most variable protein and its gene had, similar to the non-coding regions in RSV, more elevated (two-fold) substitution rates than other genes. In addition, the G gene has been identified as the major target for diversifying selection. Overall, less gene and protein variability was found within RSV-B compared to RSV-A and most protein variation between the subgroups was found in the F, G, SH and M2-2 proteins. For the F protein mutations and correlated amino acid changes are largely located in the F2 ligand-binding domain. The small hydrophobic phosphoprotein and nucleoprotein are the most conserved proteins. The evolutionary rates were similar in both subgroups (A: 6.47E-04, B: 7.76E-04 substitution/site/yr), but estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor were much lower for RSV-B (B: 19, A: 46.8 yrs), indicating that there is more turnover in this subgroup. Conclusion: This study provides a detailed description of whole RSV genome mutations, the effect on translation products and the first estimate of the RSV genome evolution tempo. The immunogenic G protein seems to require high substitution rates in order to select less immunogenic strains and other conserved proteins are most likely essential to preserve RSV viability. The resulting G gene variability makes its protein a less interesting target for RSV intervention methods. The more conserved RSV F protein with less antigenic epitope shedding is, therefore, more suitable for developing therapeutic strategies or vaccines.

Keywords: drug target selection, epidemiology, respiratory syncytial virus, RSV

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Authors: Farhad Sedaghati, Shahram Pezeshk

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Regional variations in strong ground motions for the Iranian Plateau have been investigated by using a simple statistical method called Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). In this respect, a large database consisting of 1157 records occurring within the Iranian Plateau with moment magnitudes of greater than or equal to 5 and Joyner-Boore distances up to 200 km has been considered. Geometric averages of horizontal peak ground accelerations (PGA) as well as 5% damped linear elastic response spectral accelerations (SA) at periods of 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 sec are used as strong motion parameters. The initial database is divided into two different datasets, for Northern Iran (NI) and Central and Southern Iran (CSI). The comparison between strong ground motions of these two regions reveals that there is no evidence for significant differences; therefore, data from these two regions may be combined to estimate the unknown coefficients of attenuation relationships.

Keywords: ANOVA, attenuation relationships, Iranian Plateau, PGA, regional variation, SA, strong ground motion

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

Abstract:

Earthquakes are natural disasters that pose a significant risk to human life and infrastructure. Effective earthquake mitigation measures require a thorough understanding of the dynamics of seismic occurrences, including thrust movement. Traditionally, estimating thrust movement has relied on typical techniques that may not capture the full complexity of these events. Therefore, investigating alternative approaches, such as incorporating out-of-sequence thrust movement data, could enhance earthquake mitigation strategies. This review aims to provide an overview of the applications of out-of-sequence thrust movement in earthquake mitigation. By examining existing research and studies, the objective is to understand how precise estimation of thrust movement can contribute to improving structural design, analyzing infrastructure risk, and developing early warning systems. The study demonstrates how to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement using multiple data sources, including GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. By analyzing and synthesizing these diverse datasets, researchers can gain a more comprehensive understanding of thrust movement dynamics during seismic occurrences. The review identifies potential advantages of incorporating out-of-sequence data in earthquake mitigation techniques. These include improving the efficiency of structural design, enhancing infrastructure risk analysis, and developing more accurate early warning systems. By considering out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates, researchers and policymakers can make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of earthquakes. This study contributes to the field of seismic monitoring and earthquake risk assessment by highlighting the benefits of incorporating out-of-sequence thrust movement data. By broadening the scope of analysis beyond traditional techniques, researchers can enhance their knowledge of earthquake dynamics and improve the effectiveness of mitigation measures. The study collects data from various sources, including GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. These datasets are then analyzed using appropriate statistical and computational techniques to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement. The review integrates findings from multiple studies to provide a comprehensive assessment of the topic. The study concludes that incorporating out-of-sequence thrust movement data can significantly enhance earthquake mitigation measures. By utilizing diverse data sources, researchers and policymakers can gain a more comprehensive understanding of seismic dynamics and make informed decisions. However, challenges exist, such as data quality difficulties, modelling uncertainties, and computational complications. To address these obstacles and improve the accuracy of estimates, further research and advancements in methodology are recommended. Overall, this review serves as a valuable resource for researchers, engineers, and policymakers involved in earthquake mitigation, as it encourages the development of innovative strategies based on a better understanding of thrust movement dynamics.

Keywords: earthquake, out-of-sequence thrust, disaster, human life

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Authors: Jin Sup Kim, Min Seo

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An improved cross-shaped hall plate with high sensitivity is described in this paper. Among different geometries that have been simulated and measured using Helmholtz coil. The paper describes the physical hall plate design and implementation in a 0.18-µm CMOS technology. In this paper, the biasing is a constant voltage mode. In the voltage mode, magnetic field is converted into an output voltage. The output voltage is typically in the order of micro- to millivolt and therefore, it must be amplified before being transmitted to the outside world. The study, design and performance optimization of hall plate has been carried out with the COMSOL Multiphysics. It is used to estimate the voltage distribution in the hall plate with and without magnetic field and to optimize the geometry. The simulation uses the nominal bias current of 1mA. The applied magnetic field is in the range from 0 mT to 20 mT. Measured results of the one structure over the 10 available samples show for the best sensitivity of 2.5 %/T at 20mT.

Keywords: cross-shaped hall plate, sensitivity, CMOS technology, Helmholtz coil

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Authors: M. A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh, M. W. Akhtar

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Solar radiation on horizontal surface over three southern cities of Sindh, namely Karachi, Hyderabad and Nawabshah has been investigated to asses the feasibility of solar energy application for power generation. In the present work, measured data of bright sunshine hour of the region have been used to estimate the global and diffuse solar radiation. The regression coefficient 'a' and 'b' have been calculated using first order Angstrom type co-relation. The result obtained shows that the contribution of direct solar radiation is low and diffuse radiation is high during the monsoon months July and August for Karachi and Hyderabad. The sky remains clear from September to June, whereas for Nawabshah the global radiation remains high throughout the year. The potential of grid quality solar photovoltaic power in Karachi is estimated for 10 square meter area of solar panel.

Keywords: solar potential over Sindh, global and diffuse solar radiation, radiation over three cities of Sindh, solar panels

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Authors: AmirHossein Mohajerzadeh, Mohammad Alishahi, Saeed Aslishahi, Mohsen Zabihi

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In this paper, we consider sensor nodes with the capability of measuring the bearings (relative angle to the target). We use geometric methods to select a set of observer nodes which are responsible for collecting data from the target. Considering the characteristics of target tracking applications, it is clear that significant numbers of sensor nodes are usually inactive. Therefore, in order to minimize the total network energy consumption, a set of sensor nodes, called sentinel, is periodically selected for monitoring, controlling the environment and transmitting data through the network. The other nodes are inactive. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm provides a joint scheduling and routing algorithm to transmit data between network nodes and the fusion center (FC) in which not only provides an efficient way to estimate the target position but also provides an efficient target tracking. Performance evaluation confirms the superiority of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: coverage, routing, scheduling, target tracking, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Ravindra B. Patil, P. Krishnamoorthy, Shriram Sethuraman

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This work proposes a novel Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based approach for accurate tracking of the arterial wall and subsequent computation of the distension waveform using Radio Frequency (RF) ultrasound signal. The approach was evaluated on ultrasound RF data acquired using a prototype ultrasound system from an artery mimicking flow phantom. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by comparing with existing wall tracking algorithms. The experimental results show that the proposed method provides 20% reduction in the error margin compared to the existing approaches in tracking the arterial wall movement. This approach coupled with ultrasound system can be used to estimate the arterial compliance parameters required for screening of cardiovascular related disorders.

Keywords: distension waveform, Gaussian Mixture Model, RF ultrasound, arterial wall movement

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Authors: Jae Min Lee

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Presence of people and intensity of activities have been widely accepted as an indicator for successful public spaces in urban design literature. This study attempts to predict the qualitative indicators, presence of people and intensity of activities, with the quantitative measurements of pedestrian counting. We conducted participant observation in Dilworth Park, Philadelphia to collect the total number of people and activities in the park. Then, the participant observation data is compared with detailed pedestrian counts at 10 exit locations to estimate the number of park users. The study found that there is a clear correlation between the intensity of social activities and automated pedestrian counts.

Keywords: automated pedestrian count, computer vision, public space, urban design

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Authors: C. Vrekos, C. Evagelides, N. Samarinas, G. Arampatzis

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As known, the water energy is a renewable and clean source of energy. Energy production from hydropower has been the first, and still is today a renewable source used to generate electricity. The optimal location and sizing of a small hydropower plant is a very important issue in engineering design which encourages investigation. The aim of this paper is to present a formula that can be utilized for locating the position of a small hydropower plant although there is a high dependence on economic, environmental, and social parameters. In this paper, the economic and technical side of the problem is considered. More specifically, there is a critical terrain slope that determines if the plant should be located at the end of the slope or not. Of course, this formula can be used for a first estimate and does not include detailed economic analysis. At the end, a case study is presented for the location of a small hydropower plant in order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed formula.

Keywords: critical terrain slope, economic analysis, hydropower plant locating, renewable energy

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Authors: Khadija Mushtaq, Mian Saqib Mehmood

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This paper attempts to determine the impact of leadership style and learning orientation on organizational performance in Pakistan. A sample of 158 middle managers selected from sports and surgical factories from Sialkot. The empirical estimation is based on a multiple linear regression analysis of the relationship between leadership style, learning orientation and organizational performance. Leadership style is measure through transformational leadership and transactional leadership. The transformational leadership has insignificant impact on organizational performance. The transactional leadership has positive and significant relation with organizational performance. Learning orientation also has positive and significant relation with organizational performance. Linear regression used to estimate the relation between dependent and independent variables. This study suggests top manger should prefer continuous process for improvement for any change in system rather radical change.

Keywords: transformational leadership, transactional leadership, learning orientation, organizational performance, Pakistan

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Authors: Shruti Motiwale, Xianlin Zhou, Reuben H. Kraft

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Military and sports personnel are often required to wear heavy helmets for extended periods of time. This leads to excessive cyclic loads on the neck and an increased chance of injury. Computational models offer one approach to understand and predict the time progression of disc degeneration under severe cyclic loading. In this paper, we have applied an analytic non-linear damage evolution model to estimate damage evolution in an intervertebral disc due to cyclic loads over decade-long time periods. We have also proposed a novel strategy for inclusion of recovery in the damage model. Our results show that damage only grows 20% in the initial 75% of the life, growing exponentially in the remaining 25% life. The analysis also shows that it is crucial to include recovery in a damage model.

Keywords: cervical spine, computational biomechanics, damage evolution, intervertebral disc, continuum damage mechanics

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Authors: Andrew Youssef, David Matthews, Jie Pan

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Identifying the magnitude and direction of a force on an elastic solid is highly desirable, as this allows for investigation and continual monitoring of the dynamic loading. This was traditionally conducted by connecting the solid to the supporting structure by multi-axial force transducer, providing that the transducer will not change the mounting conditions. Polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) film is a versatile force transducer that can be easily embedded in structures. Here a PVDF sensor array is embedded inside a simple structure in an effort to determine the force vector applied to the structure is an inverse problem. In this paper, forces of different magnitudes and directions where applied to the structure with an impact hammer, and the output of the PVDF was captured and processed to gain an estimate of the forces applied by the hammer. The outcome extends the scope of application of PVDF sensors for measuring the external or contact force vectors.

Keywords: embedded sensor, monitoring, PVDF, vibration

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Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

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The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

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Authors: Abdelghani Leghouchi

Abstract:

This study aims to predict the consequences associated with the propagation of the flood wave that may occur after the failure of the Taksebt dam and suggest an efficient emergency action plan (EAP) for mitigation purposes. To achieve the objectives of this study, the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 2D was used for the flood routing of the dam break wave, which gave an estimate of the hydraulic characteristics downstream the Taksebt dam. Geospatial analysis of the simulation results conducted in a Geographic information system (GIS) environment showed that many residential areas are considered to be in danger in case of the Taksebt dam break event. Based on the obtained results, an emergency actions plan was suggested to moderate the causalities in the downstream area at risk. Overall, the present study showed that the integration of 2D hydraulic modeling and GIS provides great capabilities in providing realistic view of the dam break wave propagation that enhances assessing the associated risks and proposing appropriate mitigation measures.

Keywords: taksebt dam, dam break, wave propagation time, HEC-RAS 2D

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Authors: N. F. F. Ebecken, G. C. Pereira

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Ecological systems are exposed and are influenced by various natural and anthropogenic disturbances. They produce various effects and states seeking response symmetry to a state of global phase coherence or stability and balance of their food webs. This research project addresses the development of a computational methodology for modeling plankton food webs. The use of algorithms to establish connections, the generation of representative fuzzy multigraphs and application of technical analysis of complex networks provide a set of tools for defining, analyzing and evaluating community structure of coastal aquatic ecosystems, beyond the estimate of possible external impacts to the networks. Thus, this study aims to develop computational systems and data models to assess how these ecological networks are structurally and functionally organized, to analyze the types and degree of compartmentalization and synchronization between oscillatory and interconnected elements network and the influence of disturbances on the overall pattern of rhythmicity of the system.

Keywords: ecological networks, plankton food webs, fuzzy multigraphs, dynamic of networks

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Authors: Abas Mohsenzadeh, Mina Arya, Kim Bolton

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Catalytic combustion of hydrocarbons is an important technology developed to produce energy with minimum pollutant formation. The catalyst plays a key role in this process which operates at lower temperatures compared to conventional flame combustion. The energetics of the direct combustion of hydrocarbons (CH → C + H) on a series of metal surfaces including Ag, Au, Al, Cu, Rh, Pt, Pd, Ni, Fe and Co were investigated using density functional theory (DFT). Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi (BEP) and transition state scaling (TSS) correlations were proposed based on DFT calculations on the Ag, Au, Al, Cu, Rh, Pt and Pd surfaces. These correlations were then used to estimate the energetics on Fe, Ni and Co surfaces. Results showed that the estimated reaction and activation energies by BEP and TSS correlations on Fe, Ni and Co surfaces are in an excellent agreement with those obtained by DFT calculations. Therefore these correlations can be efficiently used to predict energetics of similar reactions on these surfaces without doing computationally costly transition state calculations. It was found that the activation barrier for CH dissociation follows the order Ag ˃ Au ˃ Al ˃ Cu ˃ Pt ˃ Pd ˃ Ni > Co > Rh > Fe. Also, BEP (with R2 value of 0.96) and TSS correlations (with R2 value of 0.99) support the results.

Keywords: BEP, DFT, hydrocarbon combustion, metal surfaces, TSS

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Authors: Adrià Arbués-Sangüesa, Coloma Ballester, Gloria Haro

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Tracking sports players is a widely challenging scenario, specially in single-feed videos recorded in tight courts, where cluttering and occlusions cannot be avoided. This paper presents an analysis of several geometric and semantic visual features to detect and track basketball players. An ablation study is carried out and then used to remark that a robust tracker can be built with Deep Learning features, without the need of extracting contextual ones, such as proximity or color similarity, nor applying camera stabilization techniques. The presented tracker consists of: (1) a detection step, which uses a pretrained deep learning model to estimate the players pose, followed by (2) a tracking step, which leverages pose and semantic information from the output of a convolutional layer in a VGG network. Its performance is analyzed in terms of MOTA over a basketball dataset with more than 10k instances.

Keywords: basketball, deep learning, feature extraction, single-camera, tracking

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