Search results for: stock price exposure

Authors: Anastasiia Kuptsevych, Robert J. Johnson, Olena Antonaccio, Ekaterina V. Botchkovar

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Ukraine has recently experienced one of the bloodiest conflicts taking place on the European continent. Many active duty personnel and civilians have died, and millions of people have been displaced. This situation can lead to disorder in the country characterized by acceptance of violence and crime. There is a gap in the literature addressing the issues related to attitudes towards violence resulting from war, as well as focusing on the world’s more vulnerable civilian populations – those that live in lower and middle-income countries, such as Ukraine. Using a random sample of 1200 adults from two major Ukrainian cities, this study explores the relationship between different types of war exposure (direct and vicarious) and attitudes to violence. Multivariate models reveal that multiple types of war exposure (e.g., being injured, being a witness of death, watching war events on TV) are significantly associated with the attitudes to political and interpersonal violence. In addition, the KHB decomposition procedure showed that experiencing certain mental illnesses serve as important mediating mechanisms between war exposure and attitudes towards violence. Finally, in order to prevent society from disorder and high levels of violence, future studies need to pay more attention to exploring how vital and traumatic life events can lead a population to find violent acts acceptable.

Keywords: attitudes, Ukraine, violence, war

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Authors: Mohammad Azam

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This work is an endeavor to empirically investigate the Gross Domestic Product-Growth as mediating variable between various factors and portfolio returns using a broad sample of 522 financial and non-financial firms enlisted on Pakistan Stock Exchange between January-1993 and June-2022. The study employs the Structural Equation modeling and Ordinary Least Square regression to determine the findings before and during the Covid-19 epidemiological situation, which has not received due attention by researchers. The analysis reveals that market and investment factors are redundant, whereas size and value show significant results, whereas Gross Domestic Product-Growth performs significant mediating impact for the whole time frame. Using before Covid-19 period, the results reveal that market, value, and investment are redundant, but size, profitability, and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are significant. During the Covid-19, the statistics indicate that market and investment are redundant, though size and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are highly significant, but value and profitability are moderately significant. The Ordinary Least Square regression shows that market and investment are statistically insignificant, whereas size is highly significant but value and profitability are marginally significant. Using the Gross Domestic Product-Growth augmented model, a slight growth in R-square is observed. The size, value and profitability factors are recommended to the investors for Pakistan Stock Exchange. Conclusively, in the Pakistani market, the Gross Domestic Product-Growth indicates a feeble moderating effect between risk-premia and portfolio returns.

Keywords: asset pricing puzzle, mediating role of GDP-growth, structural equation modeling, COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan stock exchange

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Authors: Lynmar M. Didal, Ramises G. Manzano Jr., Jacque Bon-Isaac C. Aboy

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This study analyzes the performance of global minimum variance and naive portfolios across different economic periods, using monthly stock returns from the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI), S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW). The performance is evaluated through the Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, Treynor ratio, and Information ratio. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of short selling on portfolio performance. Six-time periods are defined for analysis, encompassing events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings indicate that the Naive portfolio generally outperforms the GMV portfolio in the S&P 500, signifying higher returns with increased volatility. Conversely, in the PSEI and DOW, the GMV portfolio shows more efficient risk-adjusted returns. Short selling significantly impacts the GMV portfolio during mid-GFC and mid-COVID periods. The study offers insights for investors, suggesting the Naive portfolio for higher risk tolerance and the GMV portfolio as a conservative alternative.

Keywords: portfolio performance, global minimum variance, naïve portfolio, risk-adjusted metrics, short-selling

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Authors: Juniarti, Yusniwati, Anwar. A, Armansyah, Febriamansyah, R.

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Simawang area is one of the critical areas (sub-optimal) that experienced drought from climate changes. Potential dry land belonging to sub-optimal in Simawang, West Sumatera, Indonesia not been fully utilized for agricultural cultivation. Simawang village, West Sumatera, Indonesia is formerly known as the rice barn, due to the climate change area is experiencing a drought, so the rice fields that were once productive now a grazing paddock because of lack of water. This study aims to calculate the soil carbon stock in Simawang village, West Sumatera Indonesia. The study was conducted in Simawang village, Tanah Datar regency, West Sumatera from October 2014 until December 2017. The study was conducted on sub-optimal land to be planted with Cymbopogon nardus L. (Sereh wangi in Indonesian language). Composite soil sampling conducted at a depth of 0-20 cm, 20 – 40 cm. Based on the depth of soil carbon stocks gained higher ground 6473 t ha-1 at a depth of 0-20 cm at a depth of 20-40 cm. Efforts to increase soil carbon is expected to be cultivated through Cymbopogon nardus L. planting has been done.

Keywords: climate changes, sereh wangi (Cymbopogon nardus L.), soil carbon stock, sub optimal land

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Authors: Petra Buzkova, Milos Kopa

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Reliability of the credit default swap market had been questioned repeatedly during the EMU debt crisis. The article examines whether this development influenced sovereign EMU CDS prices in general. We regress the CDS market price on a model risk neutral CDS price obtained from an adopted reduced form valuation model in the 2009-2013 period. We look for a break point in the single-equation and multi-equation econometric models in order to show the changes in relations between CDS market and model prices. Our results differ according to the risk profile of a country. We find that in the case of riskier countries, the relationship between the market and model price changed when market participants started to question the ability of CDS contracts to protect their buyers. Specifically, it weakened after the change. In the case of less risky countries, the change happened earlier and the effect of a weakened relationship is not observed.

Keywords: chow stability test, credit default swap, debt crisis, reduced form valuation model, seemingly unrelated regression

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Authors: Yuhanis Yusof, Zuriani Mustaffa, Siti Sakira Kamaruddin

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Data mining is a fundamental technique in identifying patterns from large data sets. The extracted facts and patterns contribute in various domains such as marketing, forecasting, and medical. Prior to that, data are consolidated so that the resulting mining process may be more efficient. This study investigates the effect of different data normalization techniques, which are Min-max, Z-score, and decimal scaling, on Swarm-based forecasting models. Recent swarm intelligence algorithms employed includes the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). Forecasting models are later developed to predict the daily spot price of crude oil and gasoline. Results showed that GWO works better with Z-score normalization technique while ABC produces better accuracy with the Min-Max. Nevertheless, the GWO is more superior that ABC as its model generates the highest accuracy for both crude oil and gasoline price. Such a result indicates that GWO is a promising competitor in the family of swarm intelligence algorithms.

Keywords: artificial bee colony, data normalization, forecasting, Grey Wolf optimizer

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Authors: Charles Lee

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The Principal Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) technique has been used as a model reduction tool for many applications in engineering and science. In principle, one begins with an ensemble of data, called snapshots, collected from an experiment or laboratory results. The beauty of the POD technique is that when applied, the entire data set can be represented by the smallest number of orthogonal basis elements. It is the such capability that allows us to reduce the complexity and dimensions of many physical applications. Mathematical formulations and numerical schemes for the POD method will be discussed along with applications in NASA’s Deep Space Large Antenna Arrays, Satellite Image Reconstruction, Cancer Detection with DNA Microarray Data, Maximizing Stock Return, and Medical Imaging.

Keywords: reduced-order methods, principal component analysis, cancer detection, image reconstruction, stock portfolios

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang

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This study provides insight into the effects of investor sentiment, excess optimism, overconfidence, the disposition effect, and herding formation on momentum profits. This study contributes to the field by providing a further examination of the relationship between psychological factors and momentum profits. The empirical results show that there is no evidence of significant momentum profits in Taiwan’s stock market. Additionally, investor sentiment in Taiwan’s stock market significantly influences its momentum profits.

Keywords: momentum profits, psychological factors, herding formation, investor sentiment

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Authors: Ayman M. Arfaj, Jose Lauro M. Llamas, Saleh Y Qahtani

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Sulfur Loading Operation (SLO) is an operation that poses risk of exposure to toxic gases such as Hydrogen Sulfid and Sulfur Dioxide during molten sulfur loading operation. In this operation molten sulfur is loaded into a truck tanker in a liquid state and the temperature of the tanker must maintain liquid sulfur within a 43-degree range — between 266 degrees and 309 degrees Fahrenheit in order for safe loading and unloading to occur. Accordingly, in this study, the e potential risk of occupational exposure to the airborne toxic gases was assessed at three sulfur loading facilities. The concentrations of toxic airborne substances such as Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S) and Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), were monitored during operations at the different locations within the sulfur loading operation facilities. In addition to extensive real-time monitoring, over one hundred and fifty samples were collected and analysed at internationally accredited laboratories. The concentrations of H2S, and SO2 were all found to be well below their respective occupational exposure limits. Very low levels of H2S account for the odours observed intermittingly during mixing and application operations but do not pose a considerable health risk and hence these levels are considered a nuisance. These results were comparable to those reported internationally. Aside from observing the usual general safe work practices such as wearing safety glasses, there are no specific occupational health related concerns at the examined sulfur loading facilities.

Keywords: exposure assessment, sulfur loading operation, health risk study, molten sulfur, toxic airborne substances, air contaminants monitoring

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Authors: Mohammad Rawashdeh, Mark McEntee, Maha Zaitoun, Mostafa Abdelrahman, Patrick Brennan, Haytham Alewaidat, Sarah Lewis, Charbel Saade

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Despite the tremendous advancements that have been generated by Computed Tomography (CT) in the field of diagnosis, concerns have been raised about the potential cancer induction risk from CT because of the exponentially increased use of it in medicine. This study aims at investigating the application and knowledge of practicing radiographers in Jordan about CT radiation. In order to collect the primary data of this study, a questionnaire was designed and distributed by social media using a snow-balling sampling method. The respondents (n=54) have answered 36 questions including the questions about their demographic information, knowledge about Diagnostic Reference Levels (DRLs), CT exposure and adaptation of pediatric patients exposure. The educational level of the respondents was either at a diploma degree (35.2%) or bachelor (64.8%). The results of this study have indicated a good level of general knowledge between radiographers about the relationship between image quality, exposure parameters, and patient dose. The level of knowledge related to DRL was poor where less than 7.4 percent of the sample members were able to give specific values for a number of common anatomical fields, including abdomen, brain, and chest. Overall, Jordanian radiographers need to gain more knowledge about the expected levels of the dose when applying good practice. Additional education on DRL or DRL inclusion in educational programs is highlighted.

Keywords: computed tomography, CT scan, DRLs, exposure parameters, image quality, radiation dose

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Authors: Oded Hochman

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We first show that current measures of welfare changes in the whole economy do not apply to an economy with cities. In addition, since such measures are defined over a partial equilibrium, they capture only partially the effect of a welfare change. We then define a unique and additive measure that we term the modified economic surplus (mES) which fully captures the welfare effects caused by a change in the price of a nationally traded good. We show that the price change causes, on the one hand a change of land rents in the economy and, on the other hand, an equal change of mES that can be estimated by measuring areas in the price-quantity national demand and supply plane. We construct for each city a cost function from which we derive a city’s and, after aggregation, an economy-wide demand and supply functions of nationwide prices and of either the unearned incomes (Marshalian functions) or the utility levels (compensated functions).

Keywords: city cost function, welfare measures, modified compensated variation, modified economic surplus, unearned income function, differential land rents, city size

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Authors: Hui Wu, Ye Li

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Applying the structural break estimation method proposed by Perron and Bai (1998) to the housing price growth rate of top 5 MSAs in the Texas area, this paper estimated the structural break date for the growth rate of housing prices index. As shown in the estimation results, the break dates for each region are quite different, which indicates the heterogeneity of the housing market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: structural break, housing prices index, ADF test, linear model

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Authors: Juniarti Yuni

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Simawang area is one of the critical areas (sub-optimal) that experienced drought from climate changes. Potential dry land belonging to sub-optimal in Simawang, West Sumatera, Indonesia not been fully utilized for agricultural cultivation. Simawang village, West Sumatera, Indonesia is formerly known as the rice barn, due to the climate change area is experiencing a drought, so the rice fields that were once productive now a grazing paddock because of lack of water. This study aims to calculate the soil carbon stock in Simawang village, West Sumatera Indonesia. The study was conducted in Simawang village, Tanah Datar regency, West Sumatera from October 2014 until December 2017. The study was conducted on sub-optimal land to be planted with Cymbopogon nardus L. (Sereh wangi in Indonesian language). Composite soil sampling conducted at a depth of 0-20 cm, 20–40 cm. Based on the depth of soil carbon stocks gained higher ground 6473 T/Ha at a depth of 0-20 cm at a depth of 20-40 cm. Efforts to increase soil carbon is expected to be cultivated through Cymbopogon nardus L. planting has been done.

Keywords: climate changes, sereh wangi (Cymbopogon nardus L.), soil carbon stock, sub optimal land

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Shahrbanoo Bagheri, Sepideh Nikravesh

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Considering the importance and scarcity of water resources, the efficient management of water resources is of great importance. Adoption of modern irrigation technology is considered to be a key of increasing the efficiency of water used in agriculture. Policy makers have implemented several ways to induce the adoption of new irrigation technology. The empirical studies show that farmers are reluctant to utilize the use of new irrigation methods. This study aims to assess factors affecting on farmer’s decision on the application of water saving technologies with emphasize on crop price variation and water sources. A Logit model was employed to examine the impact of different variables on use of water saving technology. The required data gathered from a sample of 204 farmers in the year 2012. The results indicate that different variables such as crop price variability, water supply source, high-value crops, farm size, income, education, membership in cooperatives have a positive effect and variables such as age and number of plots have a negative impact on the probability of adopting modern water saving technologies.

Keywords: irrigation, water, water saving technology, scarcity

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Authors: Cesar Leines

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The social effects of the pandemic are significant and diverse, most of those effects have widened the gap of economic inequality. Without a doubt, each country faces difficulties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of its own institutions that can address these causes and consequences. Around the world, pricing practices that have no connection to production costs have been used extensively in numerous markets beyond those relating to the supply of essential goods and services, and although it is not unlawful to adjust pricing considering the increased demand of certain products, shortages and disruption of supply chains, illegitimate pricing practices may arise and these tend to transfer wealth from consumers to producers that affect the purchasing power of the former, making people worse off. High prices with no objective justification indicate a poor state of the competitive process in any market and the impact of those underlying competition issues leading to inefficiency is increased when national competition agencies are weak and ineffective in enforcing competition in law and policy. It has been observed that in those countries where competition authorities are perceived as weak or ineffective, price increases of a wide range of products and services were more significant during the pandemic than those price increases observed in countries where the perception of the effectiveness of the competition agency is high. When a perception is created of a highly effective competition authority, one which enforces competition law and its non-enforcement activities result in the fulfillment of its substantive functions of protecting competition as the means to create efficient markets, the price rise observed in markets under its jurisdiction is low. A case study focused on the effectiveness of the national competition agency in Mexico (COFECE) points to institutional weakness as one of the causes leading to excessive pricing. There are many factors that contribute to its low effectiveness and which, in turn, have led to a very significant price hike, potentiated by the pandemic. This paper contributes to the discussion of these factors and proposes different steps that overall help COFECE or any other competition agency to increase the perception of effectiveness for the benefit of the consumers.

Keywords: agency effectiveness, competition, institutional weakness, price gouging

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Authors: Jasman Tuyon, Zamri Ahmad

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Behavioral asset pricing research has been gaining momentum since in 1990s. However, it is still incomplete and has been criticized for some philosophical, theoretical and model specification limitations. Due to these drawbacks, investors’ behaviors as a source of risk in behavioral asset pricing modeling still remains disputable. This paper aims to address these issues with an alternative perspective based on behavioral finance paradigm. Specifically, this paper proposes a theoretical linkages of both fundamental and behavioral risks on stock prices formation and an extension of the multifactor stock pricing model by combining multi-factor fundamentals and behavioral risks factors.

Keywords: behavioral finance, multifactor asset pricing, behavioral risks, fundamental risks

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Authors: Insiya Bhalloo

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It is quite common in the Muslim faith for non-Arabic speakers to be able to convert written Arabic, especially Quranic Arabic, into a phonological code without significant semantic or syntactic knowledge. This is due to prior experience learning to read the Quran (a religious text written in Classical Arabic), from a very young age such as via enrolment in Quranic Arabic classes. As compared to native speakers of Arabic, these Arabic readers do not have a comprehensive morpho-syntactic knowledge of the Arabic language, nor can understand, or engage in Arabic conversation. The study seeks to investigate whether mere phonological experience (as indicated by the Arabic readers’ experience with Arabic phonology and the sound-system) is sufficient to cause phonological-interference during word recognition of previously-heard words, despite the participants’ non-native status. Both native speakers of Arabic and non-native speakers of Arabic, i.e., those individuals that learned to read the Quran from a young age, will be recruited. Each experimental session will include two phases: An exposure phase and a test phase. During the exposure phase, participants will be presented with Arabic words (n=40) on a computer screen. Half of these words will be common words found in the Quran while the other half will be words commonly found in Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) but either non-existent or prevalent at a significantly lower frequency within the Quran. During the test phase, participants will then be presented with both familiar (n = 20; i.e., those words presented during the exposure phase) and novel Arabic words (n = 20; i.e., words not presented during the exposure phase. ½ of these presented words will be common Quranic Arabic words and the other ½ will be common MSA words but not Quranic words. Moreover, ½ the Quranic Arabic and MSA words presented will be comprised of nouns, while ½ the Quranic Arabic and MSA will be comprised of verbs, thereby eliminating word-processing issues affected by lexical category. Participants will then determine if they had seen that word during the exposure phase. This study seeks to investigate whether long-term phonological memory, such as via childhood exposure to Quranic Arabic orthography, has a differential effect on the word-recognition capacities of native Arabic speakers and Arabic readers; we seek to compare the effects of long-term phonological memory in comparison to short-term phonological exposure (as indicated by the presentation of familiar words from the exposure phase). The researcher’s hypothesis is that, despite the lack of lexical knowledge, early experience with converting written Quranic Arabic text into a phonological code will help participants recall the familiar Quranic words that appeared during the exposure phase more accurately than those that were not presented during the exposure phase. Moreover, it is anticipated that the non-native Arabic readers will also report more false alarms to the unfamiliar Quranic words, due to early childhood phonological exposure to Quranic Arabic script - thereby causing false phonological facilitatory effects.

Keywords: modern standard arabic, phonological facilitation, phonological memory, Quranic arabic, word recognition

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Authors: Young-Cheol Choi, Joo-Hyung Kim, Gyu-Don Moon

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This paper discusses the effect of Na2O (alkali) content, SiO2/Na2O mole ratio, and elevated temperature on the mechanical performance of fly-ash-based inorganic green geopolymer composites. Fly-ash-based geopolymers, which were manufactured with varying alkali contents (4–8 % of fly ash weight) and SiO2/Na2O mole ratios (0.6–1.4), were subjected to elevated temperatures up to 900 ºC ; the geopolymer composites and their performance were evaluated on the basis of weight loss and strength loss after temperature exposure. In addition, mineralogical changes due to the elevated temperature exposure were studied using x-ray diffraction. Investigations of microstructures and microprobe analysis were performed using mercury intrusion porosimetry. The results showed that the fly-ash-based geopolymer responded significantly to high-temperature conditions.

Keywords: fly ash, geopolymer, micro-structure, high-temperature, mechanical structural

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Authors: Xia Huo

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The composition and metabolites of the gut microbiota can be altered by environmental pollutants. However, the effect of co-exposure to multiple pollutants on the human gut microbiota has not been sufficiently studied. In this study, gut microorganisms and their metabolites were compared between 33 children from Guiyu and 34 children from Haojiang. The exposure level was assessed by estimating the daily intake (EDI) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ), and metal(loid)s in dust. Significant correlations were found between the EDIs of 6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, Cu, and both the alpha diversity index and specific metabolites in single-element models. The study found that the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model showed a negative correlation between the EDIs of five pollutants (6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, and Cu) and the Chao 1 index, particularly beyond the 55th percentile. Furthermore, the EDIs of these five pollutants were positively correlated with the levels of the metabolite 2,4-diaminobutyric acid while negatively correlated with the levels of d-erythro-sphingosine and d-threitol. Our research suggests that exposure to 6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, and Cu in kindergarten dust is associated with alterations in the gut microbiota and its metabolites. These alterations may be associated with neurodevelopmental abnormalities in children.

Keywords: gut microbiota, 6PPDQ, PBDEs, PCBs, metal(loid)s, BKMR

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Authors: Samar Rabah

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Background: Incense woods are special kind of trees called Agarwood, which characterized by good smelling odors and many medical benefits. Incense smoke is heavily used in Saudi Arabia although comprehensive studies of its effects on health are limited. The present study demonstrated lung ultrastructure changes of mice after exposure and cessation to Incense smoke. Eighty mice are divided equally into four groups, three groups are exposed to different concentrations of Incense smoke (2, 4 and 6 gm) for three months, while the fourth group is control one. At the end of each month, lungs of five animals from each group are gathered, while the last five animals from each group are kept for another 60 days without exposure to the Incense smoke to allow for recovery. Results: Transmission electron microscope investigations of all exposed groups showed hypertrophy and hyperplasia in Clara Cells and some an enlargement of the macrophage to the point that it fills a large part of the alveolar lumen. Scanning electron microscope marks presence of mucus materials attached to the epithelial bronchioles. After prevention of exposure to the Incense smoke for 60 days, necrosis and degeneration in some cells of epithelial bronchioles, fibrosis of peribronchial, thickening in alveolar walls and aggregation of lymphoid cells were demonstrated. Conclusion: Based on the above findings and other related studies (not published), we conclude that exposure to Incense smoke causes harmful effects due to sever changes in pulmonary ultrastructure, such effects do not disappear even when Incense smoke inhalation was stopped. Therefore, we recommend that Incense smoke should use only in open places to reduce its harms.

Keywords: Incense smoke, lungs, ultrastructure of lungs, Agarwood

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Authors: Taissir Fekih Romdhane

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This paper proposes a mobile web application named Pharmacy-Station that sells medicines and permits user to search for medications based on their symptoms, making it is easy to locate a specific drug online without the need to visit a pharmacy where it may be out of stock. This application is developed using the jQuery Mobile framework, which uses many web technologies and languages such as HTML5, PHP, JavaScript and CSS3. To test the proposed application, we used data from popular pharmacies in Saudi Arabia that included important information such as location, contact, and medicines in stock, etc. This document describes the different steps followed to create the Pharmacy-Station application along with screenshots. Finally, based on the results, the paper concludes with recommendations and further works planned to improve the Pharmacy-Station mobile application.

Keywords: pharmacy, mobile application, jquery mobile framework, search, medicine

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Authors: Abdulla Rahil, Rupert Gammon, Neil Brown

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The rapid growth of renewable energy sources and their integration into the grid have been motivated by the depletion of fossil fuels and environmental issues. Unfortunately, the grid is unable to cope with the predicted growth of renewable energy which would lead to its instability. To solve this problem, energy storage devices could be used. Electrolytic hydrogen production from an electrolyser is considered a promising option since it is a clean energy source (zero emissions). Choosing flexible operation of an electrolyser (producing hydrogen during the off-peak electricity period and stopping at other times) could bring about many benefits like reducing the cost of hydrogen and helping to balance the electric systems. This paper investigates the price of hydrogen during flexible operation compared with continuous operation, while serving the customer (hydrogen filling station) without interruption. The optimization algorithm is applied to investigate the hydrogen station in both cases (flexible and continuous operation). Three different scenarios are tested to see whether the off-peak electricity price could enhance the reduction of the hydrogen cost. These scenarios are: Standard tariff (1 tier system) during the day (assumed 12 p/kWh) while still satisfying the demand for hydrogen; using off-peak electricity at a lower price (assumed 5 p/kWh) and shutting down the electrolyser at other times; using lower price electricity at off-peak times and high price electricity at other times. This study looks at Derna city, which is located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea (32° 46′ 0 N, 22° 38′ 0 E) with a high potential for wind resource. Hourly wind speed data which were collected over 24½ years from 1990 to 2014 were in addition to data on hourly radiation and hourly electricity demand collected over a one-year period, together with the petrol station data.

Keywords: hydrogen filling station off-peak electricity, renewable energy, off-peak electricity, electrolytic hydrogen

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Authors: Bengan Simbarashe Manwere

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The entire African continent, comprising 55 countries, holds a 2% share of the global carbon market. The World Bank attributes the continent’s insignificant share and participation in the carbon market to the limited access to electricity. Approximately 800 million people spread across 47 African countries generate as much power as Spain, with a population of 45million. Only South Africa and North Africa have carbon-reduction investment opportunities on the continent and dominate the 2% market share of the global carbon market. On the back of the 2015 Paris Agreement, South Africa signed into law the Carbon Tax Act 15 of 2019 and the Customs and Excise Amendment Act 13 of 2019 (Gazette No. 4280) on 1 June 2019. By these laws, South Africa was ushered into the league of active global carbon market players. By increasing the cost of production by the rate of R120/tCO2e, the tax intentionally compels the internalization of pollution as a cost of production and, relatedly, stimulate investment in clean technologies. The first phase covered the 1 June 2019 – 31 December 2022 period during which the tax was meant to escalate at CPI + 2% for Scope 1 emitters. However, in the second phase, which stretches from 2023 to 2030, the tax will escalate at the inflation rate only as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). The Carbon Tax Act provides for carbon allowances as mitigation strategies to limit agents’ carbon tax liability by up to 95% for fugitive and process emissions. Although the June 2019 Carbon Tax Act explicitly makes provision for a carbon trading scheme (CTS), the carbon trading regulations thereof were only finalised in December 2020. This points to a delay in the establishment of a carbon trading scheme (CTS). Relatedly, emitters in South Africa are not able to benefit from the 95% reduction in effective carbon tax rate from R120/tCO2e to R6/tCO2e as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has not yet finalized the establishment of the market for trading carbon credits. Whereas most carbon trading schemes have been designed and constructed from the beginning as new tailor-made systems in countries the likes of France, Australia, Romania which treat carbon as a financial product, South Africa intends, on the contrary, to leverage existing trading infrastructure of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Clearing and Settlement platforms of Strate, among others, in the interest of the Paris Agreement timelines. Therefore the carbon trading scheme will not be constructed from scratch. At the same time, carbon will be treated as a commodity in order to align with the existing institutional and infrastructural capacity. This explains why the Carbon Tax Act is silent about the involvement of the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA).For South Africa, there is need to establish they equilibrium stability of the CTS. This is important as South Africa is an innovator in carbon trading and the successful trading of carbon credits on the JSE will lead to imitation by early adopters first, followed by the middle majority thereafter.

Keywords: carbon trading scheme (CTS), Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE), carbon tax act 15 of 2019, South Africa

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Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

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In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity

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Authors: Oluwaseun Adeleke, Samuel O. Ikani, Fidelis Edet, Anthony Nwala, Mopelola Raji, Simeon Christian Chukwu

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Background: The Delivering Innovations in Selfcare (DISC) project aims to increase access to self-care options for women of reproductive age, starting with self-inject subcutaneous depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) contraception services. However, the project has faced challenges in ensuring the continuous availability of the commodity in health facilities. Although most states in the country rely on the federal ministry of Health for supplies, some are gradually funding the procurement of Family Planning (FP) commodities. This attempt is, however, often accompanied by procurement delays and purchases inadequate to meet demand. This dilemma was further exacerbated by the commencement of demand generation activities by the project in supported states which geometrically increased commodity utilization rates and resulted in receding stock and occasional service disruptions. Strategies: The project deployed various strategies were implemented to ensure the continuous availability of commodities. These include facilitating inter-facility transfer, monthly tracking of commodity utilization, and alerting relevant authorities when stock levels reach a minimum. And supporting state-level procurement of DMPA-SC commodities through catalytic interventions. Results: Effective monitoring of commodity inventory at the facility level and strategic engagement with federal and state-level logistics units have proven successful in mitigating stock-out of commodities. It has helped secure up to 13,000 units of DMPA-SC commodities from federal logistics units and enabled state units to prioritize supported sites. This has ensured the continuity of DMPA-SC services and an increasing trend in the practice of self-injection. Conclusion: A functional supply chain is crucial to achieving commodity security, and without it, health programs cannot succeed. Stakeholder engagement, stock management and catalytic interventions have provided both short- and long-term measures to mitigate stock-outs and ensured a consistent supply of commodities to clients.

Keywords: family planning, contraception, DMPA-SC, self-care, self-injection, commodities, stock-out

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Authors: Ririh Rahma Ratinghayu, Jayu Pramudya, Nur Aini Masruroh, Shi-Woei Lin

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This research studies pricing strategy in cooperative setting of hotel duopoly selling perishable product under fixed capacity constraint by using the perspective of managers. In hotel revenue management, competitor’s average room rate and occupancy rate should be taken into manager’s consideration in determining pricing strategy to generate optimum revenue. This information is not provided by business intelligence or available in competitor’s website. Thus, Information Sharing (IS) among players might result in improved performance of pricing strategy. IS is widely adopted in the logistics industry, but IS within hospitality industry has not been well-studied. This research put IS as one of cooperative game schemes, besides Mutual Price Setting (MPS) scheme. In off-peak season, hotel manager arranges pricing strategy to offer promotion package and various kinds of discounts up to 60% of full-price to attract customers. Competitor selling homogenous product will react the same, then triggers a price war. Price war which generates lower revenue may be avoided by creating collaboration in pricing strategy to optimize payoff for both players. In MPS cooperative game, players collaborate to set a room rate applied for both players. Cooperative game may avoid unfavorable players’ payoff caused by price war. Researches on horizontal cooperative game in logistics show better performance and payoff for the players, however, horizontal cooperative game in hotel revenue management has not been demonstrated. This paper aims to develop hotel revenue management models under duopoly cooperative schemes (IS & MPS), which are compared to models under non-cooperative scheme too. Each scheme has five models, Capacity Allocation Model; Demand Model; Revenue Model; Optimal Price Model; and Equilibrium Price Model. Capacity Allocation Model and Demand Model employs self-hotel and competitor’s full and discount price as predictors under non-linear relation. Optimal price is obtained by assuming revenue maximization motive. Equilibrium price is observed by interacting self-hotel’s and competitor’s optimal price under reaction equation. Equilibrium is analyzed using game theory approach. The sequence applies for three schemes. MPS Scheme differently aims to optimize total players’ payoff. The case study in which theoretical models are applied observes two hotels offering homogenous product in Indonesia during a year. The Capacity Allocation, Demand, and Revenue Models are built using multiple regression and statistically tested for validation. Case study data confirms that price behaves within demand model in a non-linear manner. IS Models can represent the actual demand and revenue data better than Non-IS Models. Furthermore, IS enables hotels to earn significantly higher revenue. Thus, duopoly hotel players in general, might have reasonable incentives to share information horizontally. During off-peak season, MPS Models are able to predict the optimal equal price for both hotels. However, Nash equilibrium may not always exist depending on actual payoff of adhering or betraying mutual agreement. To optimize performance, horizontal cooperative game may be chosen over non-cooperative game. Mathematical models can be used to detect collusion among business players. Empirical testing can be used as policy input for market regulator in preventing unethical business practices potentially harming society welfare.

Keywords: horizontal cooperative game theory, hotel revenue management, information sharing, mutual price setting

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

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Authors: Azaz Zaman, Mirazur Rahman

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Capital market is a crucial financial market place where companies and the government can raise long-term funds and, at the same time, investors get the opportunity to invest in the listed companies. Capital markets play a vital role not only in shifting the funds from surplus entity to deficit for investment, but also in the overall economic development of any developing country like Bangladesh. Being the first and biggest capital market of Bangladesh, Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) is the prime bourse of the country. The differences in the investment preference— among three broad categories of investors in DSE including individual investors, institutional investors, and government— are easily observed. Authors of this article have used five categories of investors such as sponsors or directors of the company, institutional investors, foreign investors, government, and the general public in order to present a comparative analysis of their investment patterns. Obtaining data on the percentage of investment by these five types of investors in different sectors from the DSE website, this study aims to analyze the sector-wise investment preference of these investors using August 2018 data. The study has found that the sponsors or directors of the company have the highest percentage of investment in the textile industry which is close to 16%. The Bangladesh government, as an investor, has the highest percentage of investment in the fuel & power sector, approximately 32%. It has also found that the mutual funds' sector is mostly financed by institutional investors, nearly 28%. Foreign investors have their most investments in the banking sector, which is close to 22%. It has also revealed that the textile sector is mostly financed by the general public, close to 17%. Nevertheless, general public, surprisingly, has the lowest percentage of investment in the telecommunication sector, which is 0.10%.

Keywords: stock market investment, Dhaka stock exchange, capital market, Bangladesh

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Authors: Wilfred A. Abiaa, Chibundu N. Ezekiel, Benedikt Warth, Michael Sulyok, Paul C. Turner, Rudolf Krska, Paul F. Moundipa

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Mycotoxins are a wide range of toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate various food commodities worldwide especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such contamination seriously compromises food safety and quality posing a serious problem for human health as well as to trade and the economy. Their concentrations depend on various factors, such as the commodity itself, climatic conditions, storage conditions, seasonal variances, and processing methods. When humans consume foods contaminated by mycotoxins, they exert toxic effects to their health through various modes of actions. Rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa, are exposed to dietary mycotoxins, but it is supposed that exposure levels and health risks associated with mycotoxins between SSA countries may vary. Dietary exposures and health risk assessment studies have been limited by lack of equipment for the proper assessment of the associated health implications on consumer populations when they eat contaminated agricultural products. As such, mycotoxin research is premature in several SSA nations with product evaluation for mycotoxin loads below/above legislative limits being inadequate. Few nations have health risk assessment reports mainly based on direct quantification of the toxins in foods ('external exposure') and linking food levels with data from food frequency questionnaires. Nonetheless, the assessment of the exposure and health risk to mycotoxins requires more than the traditional approaches. Only a fraction of the mycotoxins in contaminated foods reaches the blood stream and exert toxicity ('internal exposure'). Also, internal exposure is usually smaller than external exposure thus dependence on external exposure alone may induce confounders in risk assessment. Some studies from SSA earlier focused on biomarker analysis mainly on aflatoxins while a few recent studies have concentrated on the multi-biomarker analysis of exposures in urine providing probable associations between observed disease occurrences and dietary mycotoxins levels. As a result, new techniques that could assess the levels of exposures directly in body tissue or fluid, and possibly link them to the disease state of individuals became urgent.

Keywords: mycotoxins, biomarkers, exposure assessment, health risk assessment, sub-Saharan Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 543