Search results for: lower and higher risk category

Authors: Muhammad Adeel Arshad, Shaukat Ali Bhatti

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The study aimed to investigate the effect of bile acids and lipase supplementation in low-energy diets on growth performance and meat quality of broilers. Seven hundred day-old Cobb-500 broiler chicks with an average initial body weight of 45.9 ± 0.3 g were assigned to 5 dietary treatments, with five replications of 28 birds each in a completely randomized design. The five treatments were as follows: (i) HE: broilers received a diet with high energy content; (ii) LE: broilers received a diet with low energy content and energy content reduced by 100 kcal/kg as compared to HE; (iii) LEB: broilers received a diet similar to the LE group supplemented with 300 g/ton bile acids; (iv) LEL: broilers received a diet similar to the LE group supplemented with 180 g/ton lipase enzyme and (v) LEBL: broilers received a diet similar to the LE group supplemented with both 300 g/ton bile acids and 180 g/ton lipase enzyme. The experimental period lasted for 35 days. Broilers fed HE had a lower (P < 0.05) body weight (BW) gain and lower feed intake (1-35 d), but during finisher period (21-35 d), BW gain was similar with other treatments. Feed conversion ratio (FCR) was lower in HE and higher in LEBL group (P < 0.05), while the LE, LEB, and LEL had intermediate values. At 35 d no difference occurred between treatment for water holding capacity and pH of breast and thigh muscles (P > 0.05). The relative weight of pancreas was higher (P < 0.05) in LEB treatment but lower (P < 0.05) in LEL treatment. In conclusion, bile acids and lipase supplementation at 300 g/ton and 150g/ton of feed in low-energy diets respectively had no effect on broiler performance and meat quality. However, FCR was improved in HE treatment.

Keywords: bile acids, energy, enzyme, growth

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Glyn Atwal, Douglas Bryson

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The rapid expansion of a consumer class in India has also coincided with an increasing awareness of social and environmental issues. The overall objective of this study explores to what extent Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) can lead to luxury brand avoidance within an Indian context. In-depth interviews were conducted with luxury consumers in New Delhi. The demographic breakdown of those interviewed was 16 males and 9 females, aged between 21 and 44. Antecedents of brand avoidance could be sorted according to two main categories. The first category was consumer dissatisfaction due to poor product or service performance. Customer service, particularly within the hospitality sector, was identified as a defining source of brand avoidance. The second category was negative stereotypes of brand users. A salient finding was that no single participant explicitly identified CSR as a source of brand avoidance. However, the interviews revealed that luxury consumers are in fact concerned about CSR issues but assume that international luxury brands have a positive record on CSR performance. Interestingly, participants placed greater emphasis on the broader interpretation of ‘corporate reputation’ rather than specific social or environmental issues to determine the CSR performance of a luxury brand. The findings reported in this exploratory study suggest that Indian luxury consumers do value the overall CSR performance of luxury brands expressed as a brand responsibility or brand reputation, and this is a potential source of brand avoidance. International luxury brands need, therefore, consider developing but also communicating a positive CSR strategy in order to reduce the risk of customers forming negative opinions about the brand.

Keywords: brand avoidance, CSR, luxury

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

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Authors: Sirus Sharifi, Arunima Haldar, S. V. D. Nageswara Rao

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This research analyzes the effect of credit risk management practices of commercial banks in India and the relationship with their non-performing assets (NPAs). Required data on credit risk performance was collected through a survey questionnaire from top risk officers of 38 Indian banks. NPA data (period from 2012 to 2016) was collected from Prowess database compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The model was assessed utilizing cross sectional regression method. As expected, the results indicate a negative significant relationship between credit risk management in India banks and their NPA growth. The research has implications for banks given the high level of losses in India and other economies as well, and the implementation of Basel III standards by the central banks. This research would be an evidence on credit risk performance and its relationship with the level of non-performing assets (NPAs) in Indian banks.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, banks, Non-Performing Assets (NPAs)

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Authors: Witthaya Mekhum, Waleerak Sittisom

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This research investigated the effect on occupational health safety and environment at work from metal handicraft using Rattanakosin local wisdom focusing on pollution, accidents, and injuries from work. The sample group in this study included 48 metal handicraft workers in 5 communities by using questionnaires and interview to collect data. The evaluation form TISI 18001 was used to analyze job safety analysis (JSA). The results showed that risk at work reduced after applying the developed model. Banbu Community produces alloy bowl rubbed with stone. The high risk process is melting and hitting process. Before the application, the work risk was 82.71%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 50.61%. Banbart Community produces monk’s food bowl. The high risk process is blow pipe welding. Before the application, the work risk was 93.59%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 48.14%. Bannoen Community produces circle gong. The high risk process is milling process. Before the application, the work risk was 85.18%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 46.91%. Teethong Community produces gold leaf. The high risk process is hitting and spreading process. Before the application, the work risk was 86.42%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 64.19%. Ban Changthong Community produces gold ornament. The high risk process is gold melting process. Before the application, the work risk was 67.90%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 37.03%. It can be concluded that with the application of the developed model, the work risk of 5 communities was reduced in the 3 main groups: (1) Work illness reduced by 16.77%; (2) Pollution from work reduced by 10.31%; (3) Accidents and injuries from work reduced by 15.62%.

Keywords: occupational health, safety, local wisdom, Rattanakosin

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Authors: Kali Prasad Sarma

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Indiscriminate disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW) in open dumping site is a common scenario in developing countries like India which poses a risk to the environment as well as human health. The objective of the present investigation was to find out the concentration of heavy metals (Pb, Cr, Ni, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Cd) and other physicochemical parameters of leachate and soil collected from an open dumping site of Tezpur town, Assam, India and its associated potential ecological risk. Tezpur is an urban agglomeration coming under the category of Class I UAs/Towns with a population of 105,377 as per data released by Government of India for Census 2011. Impact of the leachate on the groundwater was also addressed in our study. The concentrations of heavy metals were determined using ICP-OES. Energy dispersive X-Ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis was also conducted to see the presence of the studied metals in the soil. X-Ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy were also used to identify dominant minerals present in the soil samples. The trend of measured heavy metals in the soil samples was found in the following order: Mn > Pb > Cu > Zn > Cr > Ni > Cd. The assessment of heavy metal contamination in the soil was carried out by calculating enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), contamination factor (Cfi), degree of contamination (Cd), pollution load index (PLI) and ecological risk factor (Eri). The study showed that the concentrations of Pb, Cu, and Cd were much higher than their respective average shale value and the EF of the soil samples depicted very severe enrichment for Pb, Cu, and Cd; moderate enrichment for Cr and Zn. Calculated Igeo values indicated that the soil is moderate to strongly contaminated with Pb and uncontaminated to moderately contaminated with Cd and Cu. The Cfi value for Pb indicates a very strong contamination level of the metal in the soil. The Cfi values for Cu and Cd were 2.37 and 1.65 respectively indicating moderate contamination level. To apportion the possible sources of heavy metal contamination in soil, principal components analysis (PCA) has been adopted. From the leachate, heavy metals are accumulated at the dumping site soil which could easily percolate through the soil and reach the groundwater. The possible relation of groundwater contamination due to leachate percolation was examined by analyzing the heavy metal concentrations in groundwater with respect to distance from the dumping site. The concentrations of Cd and Pb in groundwater (at a distance of 20m from dumping site) exceeded the permissible limit for drinking water as set by WHO. Occurrence of elevated concentration of potentially toxic heavy metals such as Pb and Cd in groundwater and soil are much environmental concern as it is detrimental to human health and ecosystem.

Keywords: groundwater, heavy metal contamination, leachate, open dumping site

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Authors: Bibiana Matilde Bernal Gómez, Manuel Salvador Rodríguez Susa, Mildred Fernanda Lemus Perez

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In chlorinated drinking water, Haloacetic acids have been identified and are classified as disinfection byproducts originating from reaction between natural organic matter and/or bromide ions in water sources. These byproducts can be generated through a variety of chemical and pharmaceutical processes. The term ‘Total Haloacetic Acids’ (THAAs) is used to describe the cumulative concentration of dichloroacetic acid, trichloroacetic acid, monochloroacetic acid, monobromoacetic acid, and dibromoacetic acid in water samples, which are usually measured to evaluate water quality. Chronic presence of these acids in drinking water has a risk of cancer in humans. The detection of THAAs for the first time in 15 municipalities of Boyacá was accomplished in 2023. Aim is to describe the correlation between the levels of THAAs and digestive cancer in Tunja, a city in Colombia with higher rates of digestive cancer and to compare the risk across 15 towns, taking into account factors such as water quality. A research project was conducted with the aim of comparing water sources based on the geographical features of the town, describing the disinfection process in 15 municipalities, and exploring physical properties such as water temperature and pH level. The project also involved a study of contact time based on habits documented through a survey, and a comparison of socioeconomic factors and lifestyle, in order to assess the personal risk of exposure. Data on the levels of THAAs were obtained after characterizing the water quality in urban sectors in eight months of 2022. This, based on the protocol described in the Stage 2 DBP of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) from 2006, which takes into account the size of the population being supplied. A cancer risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the likelihood of an individual developing cancer due to exposure to pollutants THAAs. The assessment considered exposure methods like oral ingestion, skin absorption, and inhalation. The chronic daily intake (CDI) for these exposure routes was calculated using specific equations. The lifetime cancer risk (LCR) was then determined by adding the cancer risks from the three exposure routes for each HAA. The risk assessment process involved four phases: exposure assessment, toxicity evaluation, data gathering and analysis, and risk definition and management. The results conclude that there is a cumulative higher risk of digestive cancer due to THAAs exposure in drinking water.

Keywords: haloacetic acids, drinking water, water quality, cancer risk assessment

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Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Belal Hossain, Kaosar Afsana, Mahfuzar Rahman

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Aim: Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has already been recognized as a major cause of death in developed countries, its prevalence is rising in developing countries as well, and engendering a challenge for the health sector. Bangladesh has experienced an epidemiological transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases over the last few decades. So, the rising prevalence of CVD and its risk factors are imposing a major problem for the country. We aimed to examine the prevalence of CVDs and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to it from a population-based survey. Methods: The data used for this study were collected as a part of a large-scale cross-sectional study conducted to explore the overall health status of children, mothers and senior citizens of Bangladesh. Multistage cluster random sampling procedure was applied by considering unions as clusters and households as the primary sampling unit to select a total of 11,428 households for the base survey. Present analysis encompassed 12338 respondents of ≥ 35 years, selected from both rural areas and urban slums of the country. Socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle information were obtained through individual by a face-to-face interview which was noted in ODK platform. And height, weight, blood pressure and glycosuria were measured using standardized methods. Chi-square test, Univariate modified Poisson regression model, and multivariate modified Poisson regression model were done using STATA software (version 13.0) for analysis. Results: Overall, the prevalence of CVD was 4.51%, of which 1.78% had stroke and 3.17% suffered from heart diseases. Male had higher prevalence of stroke (2.20%) than their counterparts (1.37%). Notably, thirty percent of respondents had high blood pressure and 5% population had diabetes and more than half of the population was pre-hypertensive. Additionally, 20% were overweight, 77% were smoker or consumed smokeless tobacco and 28% of respondents were physically inactive. Eighty-two percent of respondents took extra salt while eating and 29% of respondents had deprived sleep. Furthermore, the prevalence of risk factor of CVD varied according to gender. Women had a higher prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes. Women were also less physically active compared to men and took more extra salt. Smoking was lower in women compared to men. Moreover, women slept less compared to their counterpart. After adjusting confounders in modified Poisson regression model, age, gender, occupation, wealth quintile, BMI, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, diabetes, and hypertension remained as risk factors for CVD. Conclusion: The prevalence of CVD is significant in Bangladesh, and there is an evidence of rising trend for its risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes especially in older population, women and high-income groups. Therefore, in this current epidemiological transition, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the overwhelming CVD risk.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, stroke

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Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.

Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings

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Authors: Ophir Segal, Daniel Weltsch, Shay Tenenbaum, Ran Thein

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Purpose: Patients with lateral patellar dislocation (LPD) are not always referred to perform an MRI. This might be the case in first time LPD patients without surgical indications or in patients with recurrent LPD who had MRI in previous episodes. Unfortunately, in some cases, there are additional knee pathological findings, which include tearing of the collateral or cruciate ligaments and injury to the tendons or menisci. These findings might be overlooked during the physical examination or masked by nonspecific clinical findings like knee pain, effusion, or hemarthrosis. The prevalence of these findings, which can be revealed by MRI, is misreported in literature and is considered rare. In our practice, all patients with LPD are sent for MRI after LPD. Therefore, we have designed a retrospective comparative study to evaluate the prevalence of additional pathological findings in patients with acute traumatic LPD that had performed MRI, comparing different groups of patients according to age, sex, and Tibial Tuberosity-Trochlear Groove(TT-TG) distance. Methods: MRI of the knee in patients after traumatic LPD were evaluated for the presence of additional pathological findings such as injuries to ligaments: Anterior/Posterior cruciate ligament(ACL, PCL), Medial/Lateral collateral ligament(MCL, LCL), injuries to tendons(QUADICEPS, PATELLAR), menisci(Medial/Lateral meniscus(MM, LM)) and tibial plateau, by a fellowship-trained, senior musculoskeletal radiologist. A comparison between different groups of patients was performed according to age (age group < 25 years, age group > 25 years), sex (Male/Female group), and TT-TG distance (TT-TG<15 groups, TT-TG>15 groups). A descriptive and comparative statistical analysis was performed. Results: 150 patients were included in this study. All suffered from LPD between the years 2012-2017 (mean age 21.3( ± SD 8.9), 86 males). ACL, PCL, MCL, and LCL complete or partial tears were found in 17(11.3%), 3(2%), 22(14.6%), and 4(2.7%) of the patients, respectively. MM and LM tears were found in 10(6.7%) and 3(2%) of the patients, respectively. A higher prevalence of PCL injury, MM tear, and LM tear were found in the older age group compared to the younger group of patients (10.5% vs. 1.8%, 18.4% vs. 2.7%, and 7.9% vs. 0%, respectively, p<0.05). A higher prevalence of non-displaced MM tear and LCL injury was found in the male group compared to the female group (8.1% vs. 0% and 8.1% vs. 0% respectively, p<0.05). A higher prevalence of ACL injury was found in the normal TT-TG group compared to the pathologic TT-TG group (17.5% vs. 2.3%, p= 0.0184). Conclusions: Overall, 43 out of 150 (28.7%) of the patient's MRI’s were positive for additional pathological radiological findings. Interestingly, a higher prevalence of additional pathologies was found in the groups of patients with a lower risk for recurrent LPD, including males, patients older than 25, and patients with TT-TG lower than 15mm, and therefore might not be referred for an MRI scan. Thus, we recommend a strict physical examination, awareness to the high prevalence of additional pathological findings, and to consider performing an MRI in all patients after LPD.

Keywords: additional findings, lateral patellar dislocation (LPD), MRI scan, traumatic patellar dislocation, cruciate ligaments injuries, menisci injuries, collateral ligaments injuries

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Authors: Amir Ghasemlouei, Alireza Khalaj

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In women, cancer of the breast is one of the most common incident cancer and cause of death from cancer .we reviewed the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer. In this study, a total of 25 articles regarding the subject matter of the article have been presented in which 640 patients were examined that 320 patients with breast cancer and 320 were controls. The distribution of breast cancer patients and controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg) compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the role of estrogen in a woman is endogenous estrogen of the tumor and regulate the activities of growth steroids, obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer is confirmed. Our study and other studies show that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer can be prevented in the future.

Keywords: breast cancer, review study, obesity, overweight

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Authors: Siti Nor Amira Bt. Mohamad, Mohamad Yazis B. Ali Basah, Muhammad Ridhwan B. Ab. Aziz, Khairil Faizal B. Khairi, Mazlynda Bt. Md. Yusuf, Hisham B. Sabri

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The understanding of risk and the concept of it occurs associated in Islamic financing was well-known in the financial industry by the using of Profit-and-Loss Sharing (PLS). It was presently in any Islamic financial transactions in order to comply with shariah rules. However, the existence of risk in Murabahah contract of financing is an ability that the counterparty is unable to complete its obligations within the agreed terms. Therefore, it is called as credit or default risk. Credit risk occurs when the client fails to make timely payment after the bank makes complete delivery of assets. Thus, it affects the growth of the bank as the banking business is in no position to have appropriate measures to cover the risk. Therefore, the bank may impose penalty on the outstanding balance. This paper aims to highlight the credit risk determinant and issues surrounding in Islamic bank in Malaysia in terms of Murabahah financing and how to manage it by using the proper techniques. Finally, it explores the credit risk management concept that might solve the problems arise. The study found that the credit risk can be managed properly by improving the use of comprehensive reference checklist of business partners on their character and past performance as well as their comprehensive database. Besides that, prevention of credit risk can be done by using collateral as security against the risk and we also argue on the Shariah guidelines and procedures should be implement coherently by the banking business because so that the risk would be control by having an effective instrument for Islamic modes of financing.

Keywords: Islamic banking, credit risk, Murabahah financing, risk mitigation

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Authors: Chiao-Cheng Huang, Pei-Te Chiueh, Ya-Hsuan Liou

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Chromium-contaminated wastewater from electroplating industrial activity has been a long-standing environmental issue, as it can degrade surface water quality and is harmful to soil ecosystems. The traditional method of treating chromium-contaminated wastewater has been to use chemical coagulation processes. However, this method consumes large amounts of chemicals such as sulfuric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium bicarbonate in order to remove chromium. However, a series of new methods for treating chromium-containing wastewater have been developed. This study aimed to compare the environmental impact of four different lab scale chromium removal processes: 1.) chemical coagulation process (the most common and traditional method), in which sodium metabisulfite was used as reductant, 2.) electrochemical process using two steel sheets as electrodes, 3.) reduction by iron-copper bimetallic powder, and 4.) photocatalysis process by TiO2. Each process was run in the lab, and was able to achieve 100% removal of chromium in solution. Then a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study was conducted based on the experimental data obtained from four different case studies to identify the environmentally preferable alternative to treat chromium wastewater. The model used for calculating the environmental impact was TRACi, and the system scope includes the production phase and use phase of chemicals and electricity consumed by the chromium removal processes, as well as the final disposal of chromium containing sludge. The functional unit chosen in this study was the removal of 1 mg of chromium. Solution volume of each case study was adjusted to 1 L in advance and the chemicals and energy consumed were proportionally adjusted. The emissions and resources consumed were identified and characterized into 15 categories of midpoint impacts. The impact assessment results show that the human ecotoxicity category accounts for 55 % of environmental impact in Case 1, which can be attributed to the sulfuric acid used for pH adjustment. In Case 2, production of steel sheet electrodes is an energy-intensive process, thus contributed to 20 % of environmental impact. In Case 3, sodium bicarbonate is used as an anti-corrosion additive, which results mainly in 1.02E-05 Comparative Toxicity Unit (CTU) in the human toxicity category and 0.54E-05 (CTU) in acidification of air. In Case 4, electricity consumption for power supply of UV lamp gives 5.25E-05 (CTU) in human toxicity category, 1.15E-05 (kg Neq) in eutrophication. In conclusion, Case 3 and Case 4 have higher environmental impacts than Case 1 and Case 2, which can be attributed mostly to higher energy and chemical consumption, leading to high impacts in the global warming and ecotoxicity categories.

Keywords: chromium, lab scale, life cycle assessment, wastewater

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Authors: Azar Baghtaghi

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Financial risk management is critically important as it enables companies to maintain stability and profitability amidst market fluctuations and unexpected events. It involves the precise identification of risks that could impact investments, assets, and potential revenues. By implementing effective risk management strategies, companies can insure themselves against adverse market changes and prevent potential losses. In today's era, where markets are highly complex and influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and natural disasters, the need for meticulous planning to cope with these uncertainties is more pronounced. Ultimately, financial risk management means being prepared for the future and the ability to sustain business in changing environments. A company capable of managing its risks not only achieves sustainable profitability but also gains the confidence of shareholders, investors, and business partners, enhancing its competitive position in the market. In this article, the types of financial risk and risk management strategies for improving financial performance were investigated. By identifying the risks stated in this article and their evaluation techniques, it is possible to improve the organization's financial performance.

Keywords: strategy, risk, risk management, financial performance

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Dongchuan Su, Hai Xie, Naibin Jiang

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Under severe accident cases, the nuclear reactor core may meltdown inside the lower head of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). Retaining the melt pool inside the RPV is an important strategy of severe accident management. During this process, the inner wall of the lower head will be heated to high temperature of a thousand centigrade, and the outer wall is immersed in a large amount of cooling water. The material of the lower head will have serious creep damage under the high temperature and the temperature difference, and this produces a great threat to the integrity of the RPV. In this paper, the ANSYS program is employed to build the finite element method (FEM) model of the lower head, the creep phenomena is simulated under the severe accident case, the time dependent strain and stress distribution is obtained, the creep damage of the lower head is investigated, the integrity of the RPV is evaluated and the theoretical basis is provided for the optimized design and safety assessment of the RPV.

Keywords: severe accident, lower head of RPV, creep, FEM

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Sanjeewa Seneviratne, Ian Campbell, Nina Scott, Ross Lawrenson

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Introduction: Indigenous Māori women experience a 60% higher breast cancer mortality rate compared with European women in New Zealand. We explored the impact of difference in the rate of screen detected breast cancer between Māori and European women on more advanced disease at diagnosis and lower survival in Māori women. Methods: All primary in-situ and invasive breast cancers diagnosed in screening age women (as defined by the New Zealand National Breast Cancer Screening Programme) between 1999 and 2012 in the Waikato area were identified from the Waikato Breast Cancer Register and the national screening database. Association between screen versus non-screen detection and cancer stage at diagnosis and survival were compared by ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation. Results: Māori women had 50% higher odds of being diagnosed with more advance staged cancer compared with NZ European women, a half of which was explained by the lower rate of screen detected cancer in Māori women. Significantly lower breast cancer survival rates were observed for Māori compared with NZ European and most deprived compared with most affluent socioeconomic groups for symptomatically detected breast cancer. No significant survival differences by ethnicity or socioeconomic deprivation were observed for screen detected breast cancer. Conclusions: Low rate of screen detected breast cancer appears to be a major contributor for more advanced stage disease at diagnosis and lower breast cancer survival in Māori compared with NZ European women. Increasing screening participation for Māori has the potential to substantially reduce breast cancer mortality inequity between Māori and NZ European women.

Keywords: breast cancer, screening, ethnicity, inequity

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Authors: Jiajia Peng, Yijun Dong, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Objectives: Understanding the association between sleep traits and tinnitus could help prevent and provide appropriate interventions against tinnitus. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the relationship between different sleep patterns and tinnitus. Design: A cross-sectional analysis using baseline data (2006–2010, n=168,064) by logistic regressions was conducted to evaluate the association between sleep traits (including the overall health sleep score and five sleep behaviors), and the occurrence (yes/no), frequency (constant/transient), and severity (upsetting/not upsetting) of tinnitus. Further, a prospective analysis of participants without tinnitus at baseline (n=9,581) was performed, who had been followed up for seven years (2012–2019) to assess the association between new-onset tinnitus and sleep characteristics. Moreover, a subgroup analysis was also carried out to estimate the differences in sex by dividing the participants into male and female groups. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted by excluding ear-related diseases to avoid their confounding effects on tinnitus (n=102,159). Results: In the cross-sectional analysis, participants with “current tinnitus” (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04–1.22, p=0.004) had a higher risk of having a poor overall healthy sleep score and unhealthy sleep behaviors such as short sleep durations (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04–1.14, p<0.001), late chronotypes (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05–1.13, p<0.001), and sleeplessness (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.11–1.22, p<0.001) than those participants who “did not have current tinnitus.” However, this trend was not obvious between “constant tinnitus” and “transient tinnitus.” When considering the severity of tinnitus, the risk of “upsetting tinnitus” was obviously higher if participants had lower overall healthy sleep scores (OR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.13–1.53, p<0.001). Additionally, short sleep duration (OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.12–1.33, p<0.001), late chronotypes (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04–1.22, p=0.003), and sleeplessness (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.29–1.59, p<0.001) showed positive correlations with “upsetting tinnitus.” In the prospective analysis, sleeplessness presented a consistently significant association with “upsetting tinnitus” (RR: 2.28, P=0.001). Consistent results were observed in the sex subgroup analysis, where a much more pronounced trend was identified in females compared with males. The results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with those of the cross-sectional and prospective analyses. Conclusions: Different types of sleep disturbance may be associated with the occurrence and severity of tinnitus; therefore, precise interventions for different types of sleep disturbance, particularly sleeplessness, may help in the prevention and treatment of tinnitus.

Keywords: tinnitus, sleep, sleep behaviors, sleep disturbance

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Authors: Danielle C. B. Honorato, Rafael H. Carvalho, Adriana L. Soares, Ana Paula F. R. L. Bracarense, Paulo D. Guarnieri, Massami Shimokomaki, Elza I. Ida

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Over the past decade, the Brazilian production of turkey meat increased by more than 50%, indicating that the turkey meat is considered a great potential for the Brazilian economy contributing to the growth of agribusiness at the marketing international scenario. However, significant color changes may occur during its processing leading to the pale, soft and exudative (PSE) appearance on the surface of breast meat due to the low water holding capacity (WHC). Changes in PSE meat functional properties occur due to the myofibrils proteins denaturation caused by a rapid postmortem glycolysis resulting in a rapid pH decline while the carcass temperature is still warm. The aim of this study was to analyze the physical, chemical and histological characteristics of PSE turkey meat obtained from a Brazilian commercial processing plant. The turkey breasts samples were collected (n=64) at the processing line and classified as PSE at L* ≥ 53 value. The pH was also analyzed after L* measurement. In sequence, PSE meat samples were evaluated for WHC, cooking loss (CL), shear force (SF), myofibril fragmentation index (MFI), protein denaturation (PD) and histological evaluation. The abnormal color samples presented lower pH values, 16% lower fiber diameter, 11% lower SF and 2% lower WHC than those classified as normal. The CL, PD and MFI were, respectively, 9%, 18% and 4% higher in PSE samples. The Pearson correlation between the L* values and CL, PD and MFI was positive, while that SF and pH values presented negative correlation. Under light microscopy, a shrinking of PSE muscle cell diameter was approximately 16% shorter in relation to normal samples and an extracellular enlargement of endomysium and perimysium sheaths as the consequence of higher water contents lost as observed previously by lower WHC values. Thus, the results showed that PSE turkey breast meat presented significant changes in their physical, chemical and histological characteristics that may impair its functional properties.

Keywords: functional properties, histological evaluation, meat quality, PSE

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

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As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity

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Authors: Ying Deng, Fan Yang

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Aim: To study the growth pattern of preterm infants during the first year of life and explore the association between head circumference (HC) and neurodevelopment sequences and to get a general knowledge of the incidence of anemia in preterm babies in Chengdu, Southwest China. Method: We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, neonates with gestational age < 37 weeks were enrolled this study from 2012.1.1 to 2014.7.9. Anthropometry (weight, height, HC) was obtained at birth, every month before 6 months-old and every 2 months in the next half year. All the infants’ age were corrected to 40 weeks. Growth data presented as Z-scores which was calculated by WHO Anthro software. Z-score defined as (the actual value minus the average value)/standard deviation. Neurodevelopment was assessed at 12 months-old [9-11 months corrected age (CA)] by using “Denver Development Screen Test (DDST)". The hemoglobin (Hb) was examined at 6 months for CA. Result: 445 preterm infants were followed-up 1 year, including 64 very low birth weight infants (VLBW), 246 low birth weight infants (LBW) and 135 normal birth weight infants(NBW). From full-term to 12 months after birth, catch-up growth was observed in most preterm infants. From VLBW to NBW, HCZ was -1.17 (95 % CI: -1.53,-0.80; P value < 0.0001) lower during the first12 months. WAZ was-1.12(95 % CI: -1.47,-0.76; p < 0.0001) lower. WHZ and HAZ were -1.04 (95%CI:-1.38, -0.69; P<0.0001) and -0.69 (95%CI:-1.06,-0.33; P < 0.0001) lower respectively. The peak of WAZ appeared during 0-3 months CA among preterm infants. For VLBW infants, the peak of HAZ and HCZ emerged at 8-11 months CA. However, the trend of HAZ and HCZ is the same as WAZ in LBW and NBW infants. Growth in the small for gestational age (SGA) infants was poorer than appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants. The rate of DQ < 70 in VLBW and LBW were 29.6%, 7.7%, respectively (P < 0.0001). HCZ < -1SD at 3 months emerged as an independent predictor of DQ scores below 85 at 12 months after birth. The incidence of anemia in preterm infants was 11% at 6 months for CA. Moreover, 7 children (1.7%) diagnosed with Cerebral palsy (CP). Conclusions: The catch-up growth was observed in most preterm infants. VLBW and SGA showed poor growth. There was imbalance between WAZ and HAZ in VLBW infants. The VLBW babies had higher severe abnormal scores than LBW and NBW, especially in boys. Z score for HC at 3 months < -1SDwas a significant risk factor for abnormal DQ scores at the first year. The iron supplement reduced the morbidity of anemia in preterm infants.

Keywords: preterm infant, growth and development, DDST, Z-scores

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

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Authors: Roohallah Fallah-Moshkani, Mohammad Ali Mohsenpour, Reza Ghiasvand, Hossein Khosravi-Boroujeni, Seyed Mehdi Ahmadi, Paula Brauer, Amin Salehi-Abargouei

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Purpose: Several investigations have proposed the protective association between dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) style diet and risk of cancers; however, they have led to inconsistent results. The present study aimed to systematically review the prospective cohort studies conducted in this regard and, if possible, to quantify the overall effect of using meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched for cohort studies published up to December 2017. Relative risks (RRs) which were reported for fully adjusted models and their confidence intervals were extracted for meta-analysis. Random effects model was incorporated to combine the RRs. Results: Sixteen studies were eligible to be included in the systematic review from which 8 reports were conducted on the effect of DASH on the risk of mortality from all cancer types, four on the risk of colorectal cancer, and three on the risk of colon and rectal cancer. Four studies examined the association with other cancers (breast, hepatic, endometrial, and lung cancer). Meta-analysis showed that high concordance with DASH significantly decreases the risk of all cancer types (RR=0.83, 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.80-0.85); furthermore participants who highly adhered to the DASH had lower risk of developing colorectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.75-0.83), colon (RR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.74-0.87) and rectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.63-0.98) cancer compared to those with the lowest adherence. Conclusions: DASH-style diet should be suggested as a healthy approach to protect from cancer in the community. Prospective studies exploring the effect on other cancer types and from regions other than the United States are highly recommended.

Keywords: cancer, DASH-style diet, dietary patterns, meta-analysis, systematic review

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Authors: S. Sivakumar, Ashwin Bala, S. Prithviraj, K. Panthala Rajakumaran, R. Pradeep, J. Udhayakumar

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Studies reveal that acetylene gas derived from hydrolysis of calcium carbide has similar properties to that of diesel. However, the self-ignition temperature of acetylene gas is higher than that of diesel. Early investigations reveal that acetylene gas could be used as alternative fuel mode. In the present work, acetylene gas of 31/min were inducted and diesel was injected into the combustion chamber of a single cylinder air cooled diesel engine. It was observed that the higher calorific value of acetylene gas improves the brake thermal efficiency at full load conditions. The CO and HC emissions were higher at part load conditions as compared to conventional diesel. The Nox emission level was higher and smoke emission was lower during dual fuel mode under all operating conditions. It is concluded that dual fuel mode of acetylene gas and diesel improves the brake thermal efficiency and reduces smoke in diesel engine.

Keywords: acetylene gas, diesel engine, Nox emission, CO emission, HC emission

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Authors: Sina Kazemi, Farshid Torabi, Todd Peterson

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Drilling in shale formations is frequently time-consuming, challenging, and fraught with mechanical failures such as stuck pipes or hole packing off when the cutting removal rate is not sufficient to clean the bottom hole. Crossing the heavy oil shale and sand reservoirs with active shale and microfractures is generally associated with severe fluid losses causing a reduction in the rate of the cuttings removal. These circumstances compromise a well’s integrity and result in a lower rate of penetration (ROP). This study presents collective results of field studies and theoretical analysis conducted on data from South Pars and North Dome in an Iran-Qatar offshore field. Solutions to complications related to drilling in shale formations are proposed through systemically analyzing and applying modeling techniques to select field mud logging data. Field data measurements during actual drilling operations indicate that in a shale formation where the return flow of polymer mud was almost lost in the upper dolomite layer, the performance of hole cleaning and ROP progressively change when higher string rotations are initiated. Likewise, it was observed that this effect minimized the force of rotational torque and improved well integrity in the subsequent casing running. Given similar geologic conditions and drilling operations in reservoirs targeting shale as the producing zone like the Bakken formation within the Williston Basin and Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, a drill bench dynamic modeling simulation was used to simulate borehole cleaning efficiency and mud optimization. The results obtained by altering RPM (string revolution per minute) at the same pump rate and optimized mud properties exhibit a positive correlation with field measurements. The field investigation and developed model in this report show that increasing the speed of string revolution as far as geomechanics and drilling bit conditions permit can minimize the risk of mechanically stuck pipes while reaching a higher than expected ROP in shale formations. Data obtained from modeling and field data analysis, optimized drilling parameters, and hole cleaning procedures are suggested for minimizing the risk of a hole packing off and enhancing well integrity in shale reservoirs. Whereas optimization of ROP at a lower pump rate maintains the wellbore stability, it saves time for the operator while reducing carbon emissions and fatigue of mud motors and power supply engines.

Keywords: ROP, circulating density, drilling parameters, return flow, shale reservoir, well integrity

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Authors: Shilpa Varghese, Adarsh Eregowda

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Introduction: The normal development and maturation of the central nervous system is significantly influenced by thyroid hormones. Small for gestational age (SGA) babies have a distinct hormonal profile than kids born at an acceptable birth weight for gestational age, according to several studies (AGA). In SGA babies, thyroid size is larger when expressed as a percentage of body weight, indicating that low thyroid hormone levels throughout foetal life may be partially compensated for. Numerous investigations have found that compared to full-term and preterm AGA neonates, SGA babies exhibit considerably decreased thyroid plasma levels. According to our hypothesis, term and preterm SGA newborns have greater thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations than those that are normal for gestational age (AGA) and a higher incidence of thyroid dysfunction. Need for the study: Clinically diagnosed Assessment of term SGA babies confirming thyroid dysfunction unclear Requirement and importance of ft4 along with tsh and comparative values of ft4 in SGA babies as compared to AGA babies unclear. Inclusion criteria : SGA infants including preterm (<37 weeks of gestation) term (37-40 weeks) – comparing with preterm and term AGA infants. 3.76 7.66 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 AGA Babies SGA Babies Mean Mean TSH Comparison 2.73 1.52 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 AGA Babies SGA Babies Mean Mean FT4 Comparison Discussion : According to this study, neonates with SGA had considerably higher TSH levels than newborns with AGA. Our findings have been supported by results from earlier research. The TSH level range was established to 7.5 mU/L in the study by Bosch-Giménez et al, found greater TSH concentrations in SGA newborns. Thyroid hormone levels from newborns that are tiny for gestational age were found to be higher than AGA in our investigation. According to Franco et al., blood T4 concentrations are lower in both preterm and term SGA infants, while TSH concentrations are only noticeably greater in term SGA infants compared to AGA ones. According to our study analysis, the SGA group had considerably greater FT4 concentrations. Therefore, our findings are consistent with those of the two studies that SGA babies have a higher incidence of transient hypothyroidism and need close follow-up. Conclusions: A greater frequency of thyroid dysfunction and considerably higher TSH values within the normal range were seen in preterm and term SGA babies. The SGA babies who exhibit these characteristics should have ongoing endocrinologic testing and periodic TFTs.

Keywords: thyroid hormone, thyroid function tests, small for gestationl age, appropriate for gestational age

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese

Procedia PDF Downloads 367