Search results for: extreme weather
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1579

Search results for: extreme weather

1189 A Theoretical Approach on Electoral Competition, Lobby Formation and Equilibrium Policy Platforms

Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

Abstract:

The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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1188 The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Ambient Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene and Xylene Concentrations at an International Airport in South Africa

Authors: Ryan S. Johnson, Raeesa Moolla

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Airports are known air pollution hotspots due to the variety of fuel driven activities that take place within the confines of them. As such, people working within airports are particularly vulnerable to exposure of hazardous air pollutants, including hundreds of aromatic hydrocarbons, and more specifically a group of compounds known as BTEX (viz. benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylenes). These compounds have been identified as being harmful to human and environmental health. Through the use of passive and active sampling methods, the spatial and temporal variability of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the international airport was investigated. Two sampling campaigns were conducted. In order to quantify the temporal variability of concentrations within the airport, an active sampling strategy using the Synspec Spectras Gas Chromatography 955 instrument was used. Furthermore, a passive sampling campaign, using Radiello Passive Samplers was used to quantify the spatial variability of these compounds. In addition, meteorological factors are known to affect the dispersal and dilution of pollution. Thus a Davis Pro-Weather 2 station was utilised in order to measure in situ weather parameters (viz. wind speed, wind direction and temperature). Results indicated that toluene varied on a daily, temporal scale considerably more than other concentrations. Toluene further exhibited a strong correlation with regards to the meteorological parameters, inferring that toluene was affected by these parameters to a greater degree than the other pollutants. The passive sampling campaign revealed BTEXtotal concentrations ranged between 12.95 – 124.04 µg m-3. From the results obtained it is clear that benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations are heterogeneously spatially dispersed within the airport. Due to the slow wind speeds recorded over the passive sampling campaign (1.13 m s-1.), the hotspots were located close to the main concentration sources. The most significant hotspot was located over the main apron of the airport. It is recommended that further, extensive investigations into the seasonality of hazardous air pollutants at the airport is necessary in order for sound conclusions to be made about the temporal and spatial distribution of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the airport.

Keywords: airport, air pollution hotspot, BTEX concentrations, meteorology

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1187 Legislator’s Liability – Sovereign Immunity and Rule of Law

Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Traditionally it was held that the king can do no wrong. History has proved otherwise, and both the rule of law and the open society call for a diversification of checks and balances, including civil liability in tort. Most jurisdictions are right to fear the excessive cost of such liability for the innocent taxpayer. There are notwithstanding extreme instances where refusing compensation is perceived to be outrageous. Many public bodies end up handing out on a voluntary basis, which leaves room to question its legality and merit. Instead, some criteria can shed light on the fairness of an underlying rationale of such compensation and cordon it off within reasonable limits.

Keywords: comparative law, liability of legislators, public bodies, tort law

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1186 Design Development of Floating Performance Structure for Coastal Areas in the Maltese Islands

Authors: Rebecca E. Dalli Gonzi, Joseph Falzon

Abstract:

Background: Islands in the Mediterranean region offer opportunities for various industries to take advantage of the facilitation and use of versatile floating structures in coastal areas. In the context of dense land use, marine structures can contribute to ensure both terrestrial and marine resource sustainability. Objective: The aim of this paper is to present and critically discuss an array of issues that characterize the design process of a floating structure for coastal areas and to present the challenges and opportunities of providing such multifunctional and versatile structures around the Maltese coastline. Research Design: A three-tier research design commenced with a systematic literature review. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders including a naval architect, a marine engineer and civil designers were conducted. A second stage preceded a focus group with stakeholders in design and construction of marine lightweight structures. The three tier research design ensured triangulation of issues. All phases of the study were governed by research ethics. Findings: Findings were grouped into three main themes: excellence, impact and implementation. These included design considerations, applications and potential impacts on local industry. Literature for the design and construction of marine structures in the Maltese Islands presented multiple gaps in the application of marine structures for local industries. Weather conditions, depth of sea bed and wave actions presented limitations on the design capabilities of the structure. Conclusion: Water structures offer great potential and conclusions demonstrate the applicability of such designs for Maltese waters. There is still no such provision within Maltese coastal areas for multi-purpose use. The introduction of such facilities presents a range of benefits for visiting tourists and locals thereby offering wide range of services to tourism and marine industry. Costs for construction and adverse weather conditions were amongst the main limitations that shaped design capacities of the water structures.

Keywords: coastal areas, lightweight, marine structure, multi purpose, versatile, floating device

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1185 The Diversity in the Concept of Existence from Kierkegaard to Sartre

Authors: Mohammad Motiee

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From Kierkegaard to Sartre, the concept of 'being' was debated over various angles in the philosophy of being. Then, the futility, nothingness and absurdity of human condition in the world were all justified and led to a kind of solution by different approaches like Christianity, loss of faith, authentic existence and responsibility. In an extreme concern, the human condition in the world was pondered in different ways and the philosophy of thought tried to render an awareness of such condition for human beings. The present study aims at illustration of some approaches presented by prominent existentialists to justify the controversies in the concept of existence in human life.

Keywords: existence, existentialism, alienation, being

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1184 Evaluating the Accuracy of Biologically Relevant Variables Generated by ClimateAP

Authors: Jing Jiang, Wenhuan XU, Lei Zhang, Shiyi Zhang, Tongli Wang

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Climate data quality significantly affects the reliability of ecological modeling. In the Asia Pacific (AP) region, low-quality climate data hinders ecological modeling. ClimateAP, a software developed in 2017, generates high-quality climate data for the AP region, benefiting researchers in forestry and agriculture. However, its adoption remains limited. This study aims to confirm the validity of biologically relevant variable data generated by ClimateAP during the normal climate period through comparison with the currently available gridded data. Climate data from 2,366 weather stations were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of ClimateAP in comparison with the commonly used gridded data from WorldClim1.4. Univariate regressions were applied to 48 monthly biologically relevant variables, and the relationship between the observational data and the predictions made by ClimateAP and WorldClim was evaluated using Adjusted R-Squared and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Locations were categorized into mountainous and flat landforms, considering elevation, slope, ruggedness, and Topographic Position Index. Univariate regressions were then applied to all biologically relevant variables for each landform category. Random Forest (RF) models were implemented for the climatic niche modeling of Cunninghamia lanceolata. A comparative analysis of the prediction accuracies of RF models constructed with distinct climate data sources was conducted to evaluate their relative effectiveness. Biologically relevant variables were obtained from three unpublished Chinese meteorological datasets. ClimateAPv3.0 and WorldClim predictions were obtained from weather station coordinates and WorldClim1.4 rasters, respectively, for the normal climate period of 1961-1990. Occurrence data for Cunninghamia lanceolata came from integrated biodiversity databases with 3,745 unique points. ClimateAP explains a minimum of 94.74%, 97.77%, 96.89%, and 94.40% of monthly maximum, minimum, average temperature, and precipitation variances, respectively. It outperforms WorldClim in 37 biologically relevant variables with lower RMSE values. ClimateAP achieves higher R-squared values for the 12 monthly minimum temperature variables and consistently higher Adjusted R-squared values across all landforms for precipitation. ClimateAP's temperature data yields lower Adjusted R-squared values than gridded data in high-elevation, rugged, and mountainous areas but achieves higher values in mid-slope drainages, plains, open slopes, and upper slopes. Using ClimateAP improves the prediction accuracy of tree occurrence from 77.90% to 82.77%. The biologically relevant climate data produced by ClimateAP is validated based on evaluations using observations from weather stations. The use of ClimateAP leads to an improvement in data quality, especially in non-mountainous regions. The results also suggest that using biologically relevant variables generated by ClimateAP can slightly enhance climatic niche modeling for tree species, offering a better understanding of tree species adaptation and resilience compared to using gridded data.

Keywords: climate data validation, data quality, Asia pacific climate, climatic niche modeling, random forest models, tree species

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1183 A Case Study on the Estimation of Design Discharge for Flood Management in Lower Damodar Region, India

Authors: Susmita Ghosh

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Catchment area of Damodar River, India experiences seasonal rains due to the south-west monsoon every year and depending upon the intensity of the storms, floods occur. During the monsoon season, the rainfall in the area is mainly due to active monsoon conditions. The upstream reach of Damodar river system has five dams store the water for utilization for various purposes viz, irrigation, hydro-power generation, municipal supplies and last but not the least flood moderation. But, in the downstream reach of Damodar River, known as Lower Damodar region, is severely and frequently suffering from flood due to heavy monsoon rainfall and also release from upstream reservoirs. Therefore, an effective flood management study is required to know in depth the nature and extent of flood, water logging, and erosion related problems, affected area, and damages in the Lower Damodar region, by conducting mathematical model study. The design flood or discharge is needed to decide to assign the respective model for getting several scenarios from the simulation runs. The ultimate aim is to achieve a sustainable flood management scheme from the several alternatives. there are various methods for estimating flood discharges to be carried through the rivers and their tributaries for quick drainage from inundated areas due to drainage congestion and excess rainfall. In the present study, the flood frequency analysis is performed to decide the design flood discharge of the study area. This, on the other hand, has limitations in respect of availability of long peak flood data record for determining long type of probability density function correctly. If sufficient past records are available, the maximum flood on a river with a given frequency can safely be determined. The floods of different frequency for the Damodar has been calculated by five candidate distributions i.e., generalized extreme value, extreme value-I, Pearson type III, Log Pearson and normal. Annual peak discharge series are available at Durgapur barrage for the period of 1979 to 2013 (35 years). The available series are subjected to frequency analysis. The primary objective of the flood frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme events to their frequencies of occurrence through the use of probability distributions. The design flood for return periods of 10, 15 and 25 years return period at Durgapur barrage are estimated by flood frequency method. It is necessary to develop flood hydrographs for the above floods to facilitate the mathematical model studies to find the depth and extent of inundation etc. Null hypothesis that the distributions fit the data at 95% confidence is checked with goodness of fit test, i.e., Chi Square Test. It is revealed from the goodness of fit test that the all five distributions do show a good fit on the sample population and is therefore accepted. However, it is seen that there is considerable variation in the estimation of frequency flood. It is therefore considered prudent to average out the results of these five distributions for required frequencies. The inundated area from past data is well matched using this flood.

Keywords: design discharge, flood frequency, goodness of fit, sustainable flood management

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1182 Thermal Perception by Older People in Open Spaces in Madrid: Relationships between Weather Parameters and Personal Characteristics

Authors: María Teresa Baquero, Ester Higueras

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One of the challenges facing 21st century cities, is their adaptation to the phenomenon of an ageing population. International policies have been developed, such as the "Global Network for Age-friendly Cities and Communities". These cities must recognize the diversity of the elderly population, and facilitate an active, healthy, satisfied aging and promote inclusion. In order to promote active and healthy aging, older people should be encouraged to engage in physical activity, sunbathe, socialize and enjoy the public open spaces in the city. Some studies recognize thermal comfort as one of the factors that most influence the use of public open spaces. However, although some studies have shown vulnerability to thermal extremes and environmental conditions in older people, there is little research on thermal comfort for older adults, because it is usually analyzed based on the characteristics of the ¨average young person¨ without considering the physiological, physical and psychological differences that characterize the elderly. This study analyzes the relationship between the microclimate parameters as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sky view factor (SVF) with the personal thermal perception of older adults in three public spaces in Madrid, through a mixed methodology that combines weather measurements with interviews, made during the year 2018. Statistical test like Chi-square, Spearman, and analysis of variance were used to analyze the relationship between preference votes and thermal sensation votes with environmental and personal parameters. The results show that there is a significant correlation between thermal sensation and thermal preference with the measured air temperature, age, level of clothing, the color of clothing, season, time of the day and kind of space while no influence of gender or other environmental variables was detected. These data would contribute to the design of comfortable public spaces that improve the welfare of the elderly contributing to "active and healthy aging" as one of the 21st century challenges cities face.

Keywords: healthy ageing, older adults, outdoor public space, thermal perception

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1181 Designing a Thermal Management System for Lithium Ion Battery Packs in Electric Vehicles

Authors: Ekin Esen, Mohammad Alipour, Riza Kizilel

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Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries have been replacing lead-acid batteries for the last decade due to their outstanding properties such as high energy density, long shelf life, and almost no memory effect. Besides these, being very light compared to lead acid batteries has gained them their dominant place in the portable electronics market, and they are now the leading candidate for electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). However, their performance strongly depends on temperature, and this causes some inconveniences for their utilization in extreme temperatures. Since weather conditions vary across the globe, this situation limits their utilization for EVs and HEVs and makes a thermal management system obligatory for the battery units. The objective of this study is to understand thermal characteristics of Li-ion battery modules for various operation conditions and design a thermal management system to enhance battery performance in EVs and HEVs. In the first part of our study, we investigated thermal behavior of commercially available pouch type 20Ah LiFePO₄ (LFP) cells under various conditions. Main parameters were chosen as ambient temperature and discharge current rate. Each cell was charged and discharged at temperatures of 0°C, 10°C, 20°C, 30°C, 40°C, and 50°C. The current rate of charging process was 1C while it was 1C, 2C, 3C, 4C, and 5C for discharge process. Temperatures of 7 different points on the cells were measured throughout charging and discharging with N-type thermocouples, and a detailed temperature profile was obtained. In the second part of our study, we connected 4 cells in series by clinching and prepared 4S1P battery modules similar to ones in EVs and HEVs. Three reference points were determined according to the findings of the first part of the study, and a thermocouple is placed on each reference point on the cells composing the 4S1P battery modules. In the end, temperatures of 6 points in the module and 3 points on the top surface were measured and changes in the surface temperatures were recorded for different discharge rates (0.2C, 0.5C, 0.7C, and 1C) at various ambient temperatures (0°C – 50°C). Afterwards, aluminum plates with channels were placed between the cells in the 4S1P battery modules, and temperatures were controlled with airflow. Airflow was provided with a regular compressor, and the effect of flow rate on cell temperature was analyzed. Diameters of the channels were in mm range, and shapes of the channels were determined in order to make the cell temperatures uniform. Results showed that the designed thermal management system could help keeping the cell temperatures in the modules uniform throughout charge and discharge processes. Other than temperature uniformity, the system was also beneficial to keep cell temperature close to the optimum working temperature of Li-ion batteries. It is known that keeping the temperature at an optimum degree and maintaining uniform temperature throughout utilization can help obtaining maximum power from the cells in battery modules for a longer time. Furthermore, it will increase safety by decreasing the risk of thermal runaways. Therefore, the current study is believed to be beneficial for wider use of Li batteries for battery modules of EVs and HEVs globally.

Keywords: lithium ion batteries, thermal management system, electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles

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1180 Interprofessional School-Based Mental Health Services for Rural Adolescents in South Australia

Authors: Garreth Kestell, Lukah Dykes, Danielle Zerk, Kyla Trewartha, Rhianon Marshall, Elena Rudnik

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Adolescent mental health is an international priority and the impact of innovative service models must be evaluated. Secondary school-based mental health services (SBMHS) involving private general practitioners and psychologists are a model of care being trialed in South Australia. Measures of depression, anxiety, and stress are routinely collected throughout psychotherapy sessions. This research set out to quantify the impact of psychotherapy for rural adolescents in a school setting and explore the importance of session frequency. Methods: Demographics, session date and DASS21 scores from students (n=65) seen in 2016 by three psychologists working at the SBMHS were recorded. Students were aged 13-18 years (M=15.43, SD= 1.24), mostly female (F=51, M=14), attended between 1 and 23 sessions with a median of 6 sessions (MAD 5.93) in one-year. The treating psychologist collected self-administered DASS21 scores. A mixed model analysis was used with age, sex, treating psychologist, months from first session, and session number as fixed effects, with response variables of DASS depression, anxiety, and stress scores. Results: 71.5% were classified as having extreme or severe anxiety and half had extreme or severe depression and/or stress scores. On average males had a greater increase in DASS scores over time but males attending more sessions benefited most from therapy. Discussion: Psychologists are treating rural adolescents in schools for severe anxiety, depression, and stress. This pilot study indicates that a predictive model combining demographics, session frequency, and DASS scores may help identify who is most likely to benefit from individual psychotherapy. Variations in DAS scores of individuals over time indicate the need for the collection of information such as living situation and exposure to alcohol. A larger sample size and additional data are currently being collected to allow for a more robust analysis.

Keywords: adolescent health, psychotherapy, school based mental health services, DAS21

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1179 Comparative Study of the Earth Land Surface Temperature Signatures over Ota, South-West Nigeria

Authors: Moses E. Emetere, M. L. Akinyemi

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Agricultural activities in the South–West Nigeria are mitigated by the global increase in temperature. The unpredictive surface temperature of the area had increased health challenges amongst other social influence. The satellite data of surface temperatures were compared with the ground station Davis weather station. The differential heating of the lower atmosphere were represented mathematically. A numerical predictive model was propounded to forecast future surface temperature.

Keywords: numerical predictive model, surface temperature, satellite date, ground data

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1178 Nutritional Value and Leaf Disease Resistance of Different Varieties of Wheat

Authors: Danutė Jablonskytė-Raščė, Vidas Damanauskas

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The wheat (Triticum) genus is divided into many species, of which only two are widely distributed in the world - common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.). Common (soft) wheat is the most common type of wheat in the world and the most suitable for the harsh climate of Lithuania, but the grains have lower protein content and poorer nutritional properties. Durum wheat is characterized by a high protein content of the grain, but it is a crop of warmer climates grown in southern countries, Italy, Spain, the United States, Egypt, etc. Today's important issue is food, its resources and quality. The research focuses on healthier food grown in our conditions, the quality of which recently depends a lot not only on the cultivation technology but also on the warming climate conditions. Climatic conditions change the distribution of fungi and their hosts. Plants that have grown in our climate for many years have adapted to the use of fungicides, so the aim is to study cereal varieties grown in warmer climates and compare them with our country's varieties, studying their nutritional value and the spread of fungal diseases. The field experiments of different varieties of wheat were conducted at Joniškėlis Experimental Station of the Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry in 2023. The soil of the experimental site was Endocalcari-Endohypogleyic Cambisol (CMg-n-w-can). The research was designed to identify the resistance to leaf diseases and the nutritional value of various wheat varieties. This research aims to focus on healthier food grown in our conditions, the quality of which recently depends a lot not only on the cultivation technology but also on the conditions of the warming climate. The study found that hot and humid summer weather led to the spread of foliar diseases in wheat. Tan spot (Pyrenophora tritici-repentis) is mostly spread in wheat crops. This disease had an average prevalence of 86.90%. The wheat crop was sparse, so this year was unfavorable for the spread of powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis). Dry weather prevailed during the period of flowering of cereals, which prevented the spread of ear diseases. Examining the qualitative indicators of grain, it was found that durum wheat had the best parameters.

Keywords: varieties, wheat, leaf disease, grain quality

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1177 Exercise in Extreme Conditions: Leg Cooling and Fat/Carbohydrate Utilization

Authors: Anastasios Rodis

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Background: Case studies of walkers, climbers, and campers exposed to cold and wet conditions without limb water/windproof protection revealed experiences of muscle weakness and fatigue. It is reasonable to assume that a part of the fatigue could occur due to an alteration in substrate utilization, since reduction of performance in extreme cold conditions, may partially be explained by higher anaerobic glycolysis, reflecting higher carbohydrate oxidation and an increase accumulation rate of blood lactate. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pre-exercise lower limb cooling on substrate utilization rate during sub-maximal exercise. Method: Six male university students (mean (SD): age, 21.3 (1.0) yr; maximal oxygen uptake (V0₂ max), 49.6 (3.6) ml.min⁻¹; and percentage of body fat, 13.6 (2.5) % were examined in random order after either 30min cold water (12°C) immersion utilized as the cooling strategy up to the gluteal fold, or under control conditions (no precooling), with tests separated by minimum of 7 days. Exercise consisted of 60min cycling at 50% V0₂ max, in a thermoneutral environment of 20°C. Subjects were also required to record a diet diary over the 24hrs prior to the each trial. Means (SD) for the three macronutrients during the 1 day prior to each trial (expressed as a percentage of total energy) 52 (3) % carbohydrate, 31 (4) % fat, and 17 (± 2) % protein. Results: The following responses to lower limb cooling relative to control trial during exercise were: 1) Carbohydrate (CHO) oxidation, and blood lactate (Bₗₐc) concentration were significantly higher (P < 0.05); 2) rectal temperature (Tᵣₑc) was significantly higher (P < 0.05), but skin temperature was significantly lower (P < 0.05); no significant differences were found in blood glucose (Bg), heart rate (HR) and oxygen consumption (V0₂). Discussion: These data suggested that lower limb cooling prior to submaximal exercise will shift metabolic processes from Fat oxidation to CHO oxidation. This shift from Fat to CHO oxidation will probably have important implications in the surviving scenario, since people facing accidental localized cooling of their limbs either through wading/falling in cold water or snow even if they do not perform high intensity activity, they have to rely on CHO availability.

Keywords: exercise in wet conditions, leg cooling, outdoors exercise, substrate utilization

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1176 Effect of Operating Conditions on the Process Hydrogen Storage in Metal Hydride

Authors: A. Babou, Y. Kerboua Ziari, Y. Kerkoub

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The risks of depletion of fossil fuel reserves and environmental problems caused by their consumption cause to consider alternative energy solutions. Hydrogen appears as a serious solution because its combustion produces only water. The objective of this study is to digitally analyze the effect of operating conditions on the process of absorption of hydrogen in a tank of metal hydride alloy Lanthanum - Nickel (LaNi 5). For this modeling of heat transfer and mass in the tank was carried .The results of numerical weather prediction are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: hydrogen, storage, energy, fuel, simulation

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1175 Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, Flash Flooding and Organisational Resilience Capacity: Qualitative Findings on Implications of the Catastrophic 2017 Flash Flood Event in Mandra, Greece

Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

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1174 Climate Changes Impact on Artificial Wetlands

Authors: Carla Idely Palencia-Aguilar

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Artificial wetlands play an important role at Guasca Municipality in Colombia, not only because they are used for the agroindustry, but also because more than 45 species were found, some of which are endemic and migratory birds. Remote sensing was used to determine the changes in the area occupied by water of artificial wetlands by means of Aster and Modis images for different time periods. Evapotranspiration was also determined by three methods: Surface Energy Balance System-Su (SEBS) algorithm, Surface Energy Balance- Bastiaanssen (SEBAL) algorithm, and Potential Evapotranspiration- FAO. Empirical equations were also developed to determine the relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) versus net radiation, ambient temperature and rain with an obtained R2 of 0.83. Groundwater level fluctuations on a daily basis were studied as well. Data from a piezometer placed next to the wetland were fitted with rain changes (with two weather stations located at the proximities of the wetlands) by means of multiple regression and time series analysis, the R2 from the calculated and measured values resulted was higher than 0.98. Information from nearby weather stations provided information for ordinary kriging as well as the results for the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) developed by using PCI software. Standard models (exponential, spherical, circular, gaussian, linear) to describe spatial variation were tested. Ordinary Cokriging between height and rain variables were also tested, to determine if the accuracy of the interpolation would increase. The results showed no significant differences giving the fact that the mean result of the spherical function for the rain samples after ordinary kriging was 58.06 and a standard deviation of 18.06. The cokriging using for the variable rain, a spherical function; for height variable, the power function and for the cross variable (rain and height), the spherical function had a mean of 57.58 and a standard deviation of 18.36. Threatens of eutrophication were also studied, given the unconsciousness of neighbours and government deficiency. Water quality was determined over the years; different parameters were studied to determine the chemical characteristics of water. In addition, 600 pesticides were studied by gas and liquid chromatography. Results showed that coliforms, nitrogen, phosphorous and prochloraz were the most significant contaminants.

Keywords: DEM, evapotranspiration, geostatistics, NDVI

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1173 Energy Policy and Interactions with Politics and Economics

Authors: A. Beril Tugrul

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Demand on production and thereby the global need of energy is growing continuously. Each country has different trends on energy demand and supply according to their geopolitical and geographical locations, underground reserves, weather conditions and level of industrialization. Conventional energy resources such as oil, gas and coal –in other words fossil resources- remain dominant on primary energy supply in spite of causing of environmental problems. Energy supply and demand securities are essential within the energy importing and exporting countries. This concept affected all sectors, but especially impressed on political aspects of the countries and also global economic views.

Keywords: energy policy, energy economics, energy strategy, global trends, petro-dollar recycling

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1172 Mapping of Urban Micro-Climate in Lyon (France) by Integrating Complementary Predictors at Different Scales into Multiple Linear Regression Models

Authors: Lucille Alonso, Florent Renard

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The characterizations of urban heat island (UHI) and their interactions with climate change and urban climates are the main research and public health issue, due to the increasing urbanization of the population. These solutions require a better knowledge of the UHI and micro-climate in urban areas, by combining measurements and modelling. This study is part of this topic by evaluating microclimatic conditions in dense urban areas in the Lyon Metropolitan Area (France) using a combination of data traditionally used such as topography, but also from LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) data, Landsat 8 satellite observation and Sentinel and ground measurements by bike. These bicycle-dependent weather data collections are used to build the database of the variable to be modelled, the air temperature, over Lyon’s hyper-center. This study aims to model the air temperature, measured during 6 mobile campaigns in Lyon in clear weather, using multiple linear regressions based on 33 explanatory variables. They are of various categories such as meteorological parameters from remote sensing, topographic variables, vegetation indices, the presence of water, humidity, bare soil, buildings, radiation, urban morphology or proximity and density to various land uses (water surfaces, vegetation, bare soil, etc.). The acquisition sources are multiple and come from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel satellites, LiDAR points, and cartographic products downloaded from an open data platform in Greater Lyon. Regarding the presence of low, medium, and high vegetation, the presence of buildings and ground, several buffers close to these factors were tested (5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 200 and 500m). The buffers with the best linear correlations with air temperature for ground are 5m around the measurement points, for low and medium vegetation, and for building 50m and for high vegetation is 100m. The explanatory model of the dependent variable is obtained by multiple linear regression of the remaining explanatory variables (Pearson correlation matrix with a |r| < 0.7 and VIF with < 5) by integrating a stepwise sorting algorithm. Moreover, holdout cross-validation is performed, due to its ability to detect over-fitting of multiple regression, although multiple regression provides internal validation and randomization (80% training, 20% testing). Multiple linear regression explained, on average, 72% of the variance for the study days, with an average RMSE of only 0.20°C. The impact on the model of surface temperature in the estimation of air temperature is the most important variable. Other variables are recurrent such as distance to subway stations, distance to water areas, NDVI, digital elevation model, sky view factor, average vegetation density, or building density. Changing urban morphology influences the city's thermal patterns. The thermal atmosphere in dense urban areas can only be analysed on a microscale to be able to consider the local impact of trees, streets, and buildings. There is currently no network of fixed weather stations sufficiently deployed in central Lyon and most major urban areas. Therefore, it is necessary to use mobile measurements, followed by modelling to characterize the city's multiple thermal environments.

Keywords: air temperature, LIDAR, multiple linear regression, surface temperature, urban heat island

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1171 Maximum Efficiency of the Photovoltaic Cells Using a Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Latifa Sabri, Mohammed Benzirar, Mimoun Zazoui

Abstract:

The installation of photovoltaic systems is one of future sources to generate electricity without emitting pollutants. The photovoltaic cells used in these systems have demonstrated enormous efficiencies and advantages. Several researches have discussed the maximum efficiency of these technologies, but only a few experiences have succeeded to right weather conditions to get these results. In this paper, two types of cells were selected: crystalline and amorphous silicon. Using the method of genetic algorithm, the results show that for an ambient temperature of 25°C and direct irradiation of 625 W/m², the efficiency of crystalline silicon is 12% and 5% for amorphous silicon.

Keywords: PV, maximum efficiency, solar cell, genetic algorithm

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1170 12 Real Forensic Caseworks Solved by the DNA STR-Typing of Skeletal Remains Exposed to Extremely Environment Conditions without the Conventional Bone Pulverization Step

Authors: Chiara Della Rocca, Gavino Piras, Andrea Berti, Alessandro Mameli

Abstract:

DNA identification of human skeletal remains plays a valuable role in the forensic field, especially in missing persons and mass disaster investigations. Hard tissues, such as bones and teeth, represent a very common kind of samples analyzed in forensic laboratories because they are often the only biological materials remaining. However, the major limitation of using these compact samples relies on the extremely time–consuming and labor–intensive treatment of grinding them into powder before proceeding with the conventional DNA purification and extraction step. In this context, a DNA extraction assay called the TBone Ex kit (DNA Chip Research Inc.) was developed to digest bone chips without powdering. Here, we simultaneously analyzed bone and tooth samples that arrived at our police laboratory and belonged to 15 different forensic casework that occurred in Sardinia (Italy). A total of 27 samples were recovered from different scenarios and were exposed to extreme environmental factors, including sunlight, seawater, soil, fauna, vegetation, and high temperature and humidity. The TBone Ex kit was used prior to the EZ2 DNA extraction kit on the EZ2 Connect Fx instrument (Qiagen), and high-quality autosomal and Y-chromosome STRs profiles were obtained for the 80% of the caseworks in an extremely short time frame. This study provides additional support for the use of the TBone Ex kit for digesting bone fragments/whole teeth as an effective alternative to pulverization protocols. We empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of the kit in processing multiple bone samples simultaneously, largely simplifying the DNA extraction procedure and the good yield of recovered DNA for downstream genetic typing in highly compromised forensic real specimens. In conclusion, this study turns out to be extremely useful for forensic laboratories, to which the various actors of the criminal justice system – such as potential jury members, judges, defense attorneys, and prosecutors – required immediate feedback.

Keywords: DNA, skeletal remains, bones, tbone ex kit, extreme conditions

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1169 Representation Data without Lost Compression Properties in Time Series: A Review

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction

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1168 Crisis In/Out, Emergent, and Adaptive Urban Organisms

Authors: Alessandra Swiny, Michalis Georgiou, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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This paper focuses on the questions raised through the work of Unit 5: ‘In/Out of crisis, emergent and adaptive’; an architectural research-based studio at the University of Nicosia. It focusses on sustainable architectural and urban explorations tackling with the ever growing crises in its various types, phases and locations. ‘Great crisis situations’ are seen as ‘great chances’ that trigger investigations for further development and evolution of the built environment in an ultimate sustainable approach. The crisis is taken as an opportunity to rethink the urban and architectural directions as new forces for inventions leading to emergent and adaptive built environments. The Unit 5’s identity and environment facilitates the students to respond optimistically, alternatively and creatively towards the global current crisis. Mark Wigley’s notion that “crises are ultimately productive” and “They force invention” intrigued and defined the premises of the Unit. ‘Weather and nature are coauthors of the built environment’ Jonathan Hill states in his ‘weather architecture’ discourse. The weather is constantly changing and new environments, the subnatures are created which derived from the human activities David Gissen explains. The above set of premises triggered innovative responses by the Unit’s students. They thoroughly investigated the various kinds of crisis and their causes in relation to their various types of Terrains. The tools used for the research and investigation were chosen in contradictive pairs to generate further crisis situations: The re-used/salvaged competed with the new, the handmade rivalling with the fabrication, the analogue juxtaposed with digital. Students were asked to delve into state of art technologies in order to propose sustainable emergent and adaptive architectures and Urbanities, having though always in mind that the human and the social aspects of the community should be the core of the investigation. The resulting unprecedented spatial conditions and atmospheres of the emergent new ways of living are deemed to be the ultimate aim of the investigation. Students explored a variety of sites and crisis conditions such as: The vague terrain of the Green Line in Nicosia, the lost footprints of the sinking Venice, the endangered Australian coral reefs, the earthquake torn town of Crevalcore, and the decaying concrete urbanscape of Athens. Among other projects, ‘the plume project’ proposes a cloud-like, floating and almost dream-like living environment with unprecedented spatial conditions to the inhabitants of the coal mine of Centralia, USA, not just to enable them to survive but even to prosper in this unbearable environment due to the process of the captured plumes of smoke and heat. Existing water wells inspire inversed vertical structures creating a new living underground network, protecting the nomads from catastrophic sand storms in the Araoune of Mali. “Inverted utopia: Lost things in the sand”, weaves a series of tea-houses and a library holding lost artifacts and transcripts into a complex underground labyrinth by the utilization of the sand solidification technology. Within this methodology, crisis is seen as a mechanism for allowing an emergence of new and fascinating ultimate sustainable future cultures and cities.

Keywords: adaptive built environments, crisis as opportunity, emergent urbanities, forces for inventions

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1167 Structural Health Monitoring-Integrated Structural Reliability Based Decision Making

Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

Abstract:

Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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1166 Simulation and Thermal Evaluation of Containers Using PCM in Different Weather Conditions of Chile: Energy Savings in Lightweight Constructions

Authors: Paula Marín, Mohammad Saffari, Alvaro de Gracia, Luisa F. Cabeza, Svetlana Ushak

Abstract:

Climate control represents an important issue when referring to energy consumption of buildings and associated expenses, both in installation or operation periods. The climate control of a building relies on several factors. Among them, localization, orientation, architectural elements, sources of energy used, are considered. In order to study the thermal behaviour of a building set up, the present study proposes the use of energy simulation program Energy Plus. In recent years, energy simulation programs have become important tools for evaluation of thermal/energy performance of buildings and facilities. Besides, the need to find new forms of passive conditioning in buildings for energy saving is a critical component. The use of phase change materials (PCMs) for heat storage applications has grown in importance due to its high efficiency. Therefore, the climatic conditions of Northern Chile: high solar radiation and extreme temperature fluctuations ranging from -10°C to 30°C (Calama city), low index of cloudy days during the year are appropriate to take advantage of solar energy and use passive systems in buildings. Also, the extensive mining activities in northern Chile encourage the use of large numbers of containers to harbour workers during shifts. These containers are constructed with lightweight construction systems, requiring heating during night and cooling during day, increasing the HVAC electricity consumption. The use of PCM can improve thermal comfort and reduce the energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal and energy performance of containers of 2.5×2.5×2.5 m3, located in four cities of Chile: Antofagasta, Calama, Santiago, and Concepción. Lightweight envelopes, typically used in these building prototypes, were evaluated considering a container without PCM inclusion as the reference building and another container with PCM-enhanced envelopes as a test case, both of which have a door and a window in the same wall, orientated in two directions: North and South. To see the thermal response of these containers in different seasons, the simulations were performed considering a period of one year. The results show that higher energy savings for the four cities studied are obtained when the distribution of door and window in the container is in the north direction because of higher solar radiation incidence. The comparison of HVAC consumption and energy savings in % for north direction of door and window are summarised. Simulation results show that in the city of Antofagasta 47% of heating energy could be saved and in the cities of Calama and Concepción the biggest savings in terms of cooling could be achieved since PCM reduces almost all the cooling demand. Currently, based on simulation results, four containers have been constructed and sized with the same structural characteristics carried out in simulations, that are, containers with/without PCM, with door and window in one wall. Two of these containers will be placed in Antofagasta and two containers in a copper mine near to Calama, all of them will be monitored for a period of one year. The simulation results will be validated with experimental measurements and will be reported in the future.

Keywords: energy saving, lightweight construction, PCM, simulation

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1165 A Qualitative Study of Newspaper Discourse and Online Discussions of Climate Change in China

Authors: Juan Du

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the most crucial issues of this era, with contentious debates on it among scholars. But there are sparse studies on climate change discourse in China. Including China in the study of climate change is essential for a sociological understanding of climate change. China -- as a developing country and an essential player in tackling climate change -- offers an ideal case for studying climate change for scholars moving beyond developed countries and enriching their understandings of climate change by including diverse social settings. This project contrasts the macro- and micro-level understandings of climate change in China, which helps scholars move beyond a focus on climate skepticism and denialism and enriches sociology of climate change knowledge. The macro-level understanding of climate change is obtained by analyzing over 4,000 newspaper articles from various official outlets in China. State-controlled newspapers play an essential role in transmitting essential and high-quality information and promoting broader public understanding of climate change and its anthropogenic nature. Thus, newspaper articles can be seen as tools employed by governments to mobilize the public in terms of supporting the development of a strategy shift from economy-growth to an ecological civilization. However, media is just one of the significant factors influencing an individual’s climate change concern. Extreme weather events, access to accurate scientific information, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy influence an individual’s perceptions of climate change. Hence, there are differences in the ways that both newspaper articles and the public frame the issues. The online forum is an informative channel for scholars to understand the public’s opinion. The micro-level data comes from Zhihu, which is China’s equivalence of Quora. Users can propose, answer, and comment on questions. This project analyzes the questions related to climate change which have over 20 answers. By open-coding both the macro- and micro-level data, this project will depict the differences between ideology as presented in government-controlled newspapers and how people talk and act with respect to climate change in cyberspace, which may provide an idea about any existing disconnect in public behavior and their willingness to change daily activities to facilitate a greener society. The contemporary Yellow Vest protests in France illustrate that the large gap between governmental policies of climate change mitigation and the public’s understanding may lead to social movement activity and social instability. Effective environmental policy is impossible without the public’s support. Finding existing gaps in understanding may help policy-makers develop effective ways of framing climate change and obtain more supporters of climate change related policies. Overall, this qualitative project provides answers to the following research questions: 1) How do different state-controlled newspapers transmit their ideology on climate change to the public and in what ways? 2) How do individuals frame climate change online? 3) What are the differences between newspapers’ framing and individual’s framing?

Keywords: climate change, China, framing theory, media, public’s climate change concern

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1164 Extreme Heat and Workforce Health in Southern Nevada

Authors: Erick R. Bandala, Kebret Kebede, Nicole Johnson, Rebecca Murray, Destiny Green, John Mejia, Polioptro Martinez-Austria

Abstract:

Summertemperature data from Clark County was collected and used to estimate two different heat-related indexes: the heat index (HI) and excess heat factor (EHF). These two indexes were used jointly with data of health-related deaths in Clark County to assess the effect of extreme heat on the exposed population. The trends of the heat indexes were then analyzed for the 2007-2016 decadeandthe correlation between heat wave episodes and the number of heat-related deaths in the area was estimated. The HI showed that this value has increased significantly in June, July, and August over the last ten years. The same trend was found for the EHF, which showed a clear increase in the severity and number of these events per year. The number of heat wave episodes increased from 1.4 per year during the 1980-2016 period to 1.66 per yearduring the 2007-2016 period. However, a different trend was found for heat-wave-event duration, which decreasedfrom an average of 20.4 days during the trans-decadal period (1980-2016) to 18.1 days during the most recent decade(2007-2016). The number of heat-related deaths was also found to increase from 2007 to 2016, with 2016 with the highest number of heat-related deaths. Both HI and the number of deaths showeda normal-like distribution for June, July, and August, with the peak values reached in late July and early August. The average maximum HI values better correlated with the number of deaths registered in Clark County than the EHF, probably because HI uses the maximum temperature and humidity in its estimation,whereas EHF uses the average medium temperature. However, it is worth testing the EHF of the study zone because it was reported to fit properly in the case of heat-related morbidity. For the overall period, 437 heat-related deaths were registered in Clark County, with 20% of the deaths occurring in June, 52% occurring in July, 18% occurring in August,and the remaining 10% occurring in the other months of the year. The most vulnerable subpopulation was people over 50 years old, for which 76% of the heat-related deaths were registered.Most of the cases were associated with heart disease preconditions. The second most vulnerable subpopulation was young adults (20-50), which accounted for 23% of the heat-related deaths. These deathswere associated with alcoholic/illegal drug intoxication.

Keywords: heat, health, hazards, workforce

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1163 Application Reliability Method for the Analysis of the Stability Limit States of Large Concrete Dams

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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1162 Novel Animal Drawn Wheel-Axle Mechanism Actuated Knapsack Boom Sprayer

Authors: Ibrahim O. Abdulmalik, Michael C. Amonye, Mahdi Makoyo

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Manual knapsack sprayer is the most popular means of farm spraying in Nigeria. It has its limitations. Apart from the human fatigue, which leads to unsteady walking steps, their field capacities are small. They barely cover about 0.2hectare per hour. Their small swath implies that a sizeable farm would take several days to cover. Weather changes are erratic and often it is desired to spray a large farm within hours or few days for even effect, uniformity and to avoid adverse weather interference. It is also often required that a large farm be covered within a short period to avoid re-emergence of weeds before crop emergence. Deployment of many knapsack operators to large farms has not been successful. Human error in taking equally spaced swaths usually result in over dosage of overlaps and in unapplied areas due to error at edges overlaps. Large farm spraying require boom equipment with larger swath. Reduced error in swath overlaps and spraying within the shortest possible time are then assured. Tractor boom sprayers would readily overcome these problems and achieve greater coverage, but they are not available in the country. Tractor hire for cultivation is very costly with the attendant lack of spare parts and specialized technicians for maintenance wherefore farmers find it difficult to engage tractors for cultivation and would avoid considering the employment of a tractor boom sprayer. Animal traction in farming is predominant in Nigeria, especially in the Northern part of the country. Development of boom sprayers drawn by work animals surely implies the maximization of animal utilization in farming. The Hydraulic Equipment Development Institute, Kano, in keeping to its mandate of targeted R&D in hydraulic and pneumatic systems, has developed an Animal Drawn Knapsack Boom Sprayer with four nozzles using the axle mechanism of a two wheeled cart to actuate the piston pump of two knapsack sprayers in line with appropriate technology demand of the country. It is hoped that the introduction of this novel contrivance shall enhance crop protection practice and lead to greater crop and food production in Nigeria.

Keywords: boom, knapsack, farm, sprayer, wheel axle

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1161 Technical and Economical Feasibility Analysis of Solar Water Pumping System - Case Study in Iran

Authors: A. Gharib, M. Moradi

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The technical analysis of using solar energy and electricity for water pumping in the Khuzestan province in Iran is investigated. For this purpose, the ecological conditions such as the weather data, air clearness and sunshine hours are analyzed. The nature of groundwater in the region was examined in terms of depth, static and dynamic head, water pumping rate. Three configurations for solar water pumping system were studied in this thesis; AC solar water pumping with a storage battery, AC solar water pumping with a storage tank, and DC direct solar water pumping.

Keywords: technical and economic feasibility, solar energy, photovoltaic systems, solar water pumping system

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1160 The Effects of Molecular and Climatic Variability on the Occurrence of Aspergillus Species and Aflatoxin Production in Commercial Maize from Different Agro-climatic Regions in South Africa

Authors: Nji Queenta Ngum, Mwanza Mulunda

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Introduction Most African research reports on the frequent aflatoxin contamination of various foodstuffs, with researchers rarely specifying which of the Aspergillus species are present in these commodities. Numerous research works provide evidence of the ability of fungi to grow, thrive, and interact with other crop species and focus on the fact that these processes are largely affected by climatic variables. South Africa is a water-stressed country with high spatio-temporal rainfall variability; moreover, temperatures have been projected to rise at a rate twice the global rate. This weather pattern change may lead to crop stress encouraging mold contamination with subsequent mycotoxin production. In this study, the biodiversity and distribution of Aspergillus species with their corresponding toxins in maize from six distinct maize producing regions with different weather patterns in South Africa were investigated. Materials And Methods By applying cultural and molecular methods, a total of 1028 maize samples from six distinct agro-climatic regions were examined for contamination by the Aspergillus species while the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was applied to analyse the level of contamination by aflatoxins. Results About 30% of the overall maize samples were contaminated by at least one Aspergillus species. Less than 30% (28.95%) of the 228 isolates subjected to the aflatoxigenic test was found to possess at least one of the aflatoxin biosynthetic genes. Furthermore, almost 20% were found to be contaminated with aflatoxins, with mean total aflatoxin concentration levels of 64.17 ppb. Amongst the contaminated samples, 59.02% had mean total aflatoxin concentration levels above the SA regulatory limit of 20ppb for animals and 10 for human consumption. Conclusion In this study, climate variables (rainfall reduction) were found to significantly (p<0.001) influence the occurrence of the Aspergillus species (especially Aspergillus fumigatus) and the production of aflatoxin in South Africa commercial maize by maize variety, year of cultivation as well as the agro-climatic region in which the maize is cultivated. This included, amongst others, a reduction in the average annual rainfall of the preceding year to about 21.27 mm, and, as opposed to other regions whose average maximum rainfall ranged between 37.24 – 44.1 mm, resulted in a significant increase in the aflatoxin contamination of maize.

Keywords: aspergillus species, aflatoxins, diversity, drought, food safety, HPLC and PCR techniques

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