Search results for: disaster risk

Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway network systems play a vital role in disaster response for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such network systems can impede disaster response by disrupting transportation of rescue teams or humanitarian supplies. Therefore, emergency inspection and repair of bridges to quickly collect damage information of bridges and recover the functionality of highway networks is of paramount importance to disaster response. A widely used measure of a network’s capability to recover from disasters is resilience. To enhance highway network resilience, plenty of studies have developed various repair scheduling methods for the prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. These methods assume that repair activities are performed after the damage to a highway network is fully understood via inspection, although inspecting all bridges in a regional highway network may take days, leading to the significant delay in repairing bridges. In reality, emergency repair activities can be commenced as soon as the damage data of some bridges that are crucial to emergency response are obtained. Given that emergency bridge inspection and repair (EBIR) activities are executed simultaneously in the response phase, the real-time interactions between these activities can occur – the blockage of highways due to repair activities can affect inspection routes which in turn have an impact on emergency repair scheduling by providing real-time information on bridge damages. However, the impact of such interactions on the optimal emergency inspection routes (EIR) and emergency repair schedules (ERS) has not been discussed in prior studies. To overcome the aforementioned deficiencies, this study develops a routing and scheduling model for EBIR while accounting for real-time inspection-repair interactions to maximize highway network resilience. A stochastic, time-dependent integer program is proposed for the complex and real-time interacting EBIR problem given multiple inspection and repair teams at locations as set post-disaster. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. Computational tests are performed using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of bridge inspection and repair activities can significantly improve the highway network resilience. Moreover, the deployment of inspection and repair teams should match each other, and the network resilience will not be improved once the unilateral increase in inspection teams or repair teams exceeds a certain level. This study contributes to both knowledge and practice. First, the developed mathematical model makes it possible for capturing the impact of real-time inspection-repair interactions on inspection routing and repair scheduling and efficiently deriving optimal EIR and ERS on a large and complex highway network. Moreover, this study contributes to the organizational dimension of highway network resilience by providing optimal strategies for highway bridge management. With the decision support tool, disaster managers are able to identify the most critical bridges for disaster management and make decisions on proper inspection and repair strategies to improve highway network resilience.

Keywords: disaster management, emergency bridge inspection and repair, highway network, resilience, uncertainty

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Rifaldy, Misbahudin, Khalid Rizky, Ricky Aryanto, M. Alfiyan Bagus, Fahri Septianto, Firman Najib Wibisana, Excobar Arman

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Indonesia is a country that has a high level of disaster because it is on the ring of fire, and there are several regions with three major plates meeting in the world. So that disaster analysis must always be done to see the potential disasters that might always occur, especially in this research are landslides and liquefaction. This research was conducted to analyze areas that are vulnerable to landslides and liquefaction hazards and their relationship with the assessment of the issue of moving the new capital of the Republic of Indonesia to the island of Kalimantan with a total area of 612,267.22 km². The method in this analysis uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process and consistency ratio testing as a complex and unstructured problem-solving process into several parameters by providing values. The parameters used in this analysis are the slope, land cover, lithology distribution, wetness index, earthquake data, peak ground acceleration. Weighted overlay was carried out from all these parameters using the percentage value obtained from the Analytical Hierarchy Process and confirmed its accuracy with a consistency ratio so that a percentage of the area obtained with different vulnerability classification values was obtained. Based on the analysis results obtained vulnerability classification from very high to low vulnerability. There are (0.15%) 918.40083 km² of highly vulnerable, medium (20.75%) 127,045,44815 km², low (56.54%) 346,175.886188 km², very low (22.56%) 138,127.484832 km². This research is expected to be able to map landslides and liquefaction disasters on the island of Kalimantan and provide consideration of the suitability of regional development of the new capital of the Republic of Indonesia. Also, this research is expected to provide input or can be applied to all regions that are analyzing the vulnerability of landslides and liquefaction or the suitability of the development of certain regions.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Borneo Island, landslide and liquefaction, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Humaira Maheen, Elizabeth Hoban, Catherine Bennette

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Background: Globally, role of Community Health Workers (CHW) as front line disaster health work force is underutilized. Developing countries which are at risk of natural disasters or humanitarian emergencies should lay down effective strategies especially to ensure adequate access to maternity care during crisis situation by using CHW as they are local, trained, and most of them possess a good relationship with the community. The Minimum Initial Service Package (MISP) is a set of universal guidelines that addresses women’s reproductive health needs during the first phase of an emergency. According to the MISP, pregnant women should have access to a skilled birth attendant and adequate transportation arrangements so they can access a maternity care facility. Pakistan is one of the few countries which has been severely affected by a number of natural disaster as well as humanitarian emergencies in last decade. Pakistan has a young and structured National Disaster Management System in place, where District Authorities play a vital role in disaster management. The District Health Department develops the contingency health plan for an emergency situation and implements it under the existing district health human resources (health workers and medical staff at the health facility) and infrastructure (health care facilities). Methods: A mixed methods study was conducted in rural villages of Sindh adjacent to the river Indus, and included in-depth interviews with 15 women who gave birth during the floods, structured interviews with 668 women who were pregnant during 2010-2014, and in-depth interviews with 25 community health workers (CHW) and 30 key informants. Results: Women said that giving birth in the relief camps during the floods was one of the most challenging times of their life. The district health department didn’t make transportation arrangement for labouring women from relief camp to the nearest health care facility. As a result 91.2% women gave birth in temporary shelters with the help of a traditional birth attendant (Dai) with no clean physical space available to birth. Of the 332 women who were pregnant at the time of the floods, 26 had adverse birth outcomes; 10 had miscarriages, 14 had stillbirths and there were four neonatal deaths. Conclusion: The district health department was not able to provide access to adequate maternity care during according to the international standard during the floods in 2011. We propose a model where CHWs will be used as frontline maternity care providers during any emergency or disaster situations in Pakistan. A separate "birthing station" should be mandatory in all district relief camps, managed by CHWs. Community midwives (CMW) would and the Lady Health Workers (LHW) would provide antenatal and postnatal care alongside, vaccination for pregnant women, neonates and children under five. There must be an ambulance facility for emergency obstetric cases and all district health facilities should have at least two medical staff identified and trained for emergency obstetric management. The District Health Department must provide clean birthing kits and regular and emergency contraceptives in the relief camps. Methods: A mixed methods study was conducted in rural villages of Sindh adjacent to the river Indus, and included in-depth interviews with 15 women who gave birth during the floods, structured interviews with 668 women who were pregnant during 2010-2014, and in-depth interviews with 25 community health workers (CHW) and 30 key informants. Results: Women said that giving birth in the relief camps during the floods was one of the most challenging times of their life. Nearly 91.2% women gave birth in temporary shelters with the help of a traditional birth attendant (Dai) with no clean physical space available to birth, and the health camp was mostly accessed by men and always overcrowded. There was no obstetric trained medical staff in the health camps or transportation provided to take women with complications to the nearest health facility. The rate of adverse outcome following disaster was 22.2% (95% CI: 8.62% – 42.2%) amongst 27 women who did not evacuate as compare to 7.91% (95% CI: 5.03% – 11.8%) among 278 women who lived in relief camp study participants. There were 27 women who evacuated on pre-flood warning and had 0% rate of adverse outcome. Conclusion: We propose a model where CHWs will be used as frontline maternity care providers during any emergency or disaster situations in Pakistan. A separate "birthing station" should be mandatory in all district relief camps, managed by CHWs. Community midwives (CMW) would and the Lady Health Workers (LHW) would provide antenatal and postnatal care alongside, vaccination for pregnant women, neonates and children under five. There must be an ambulance facility for emergency obstetric cases and all district health facilities should have at least two medical staff identified and trained for emergency obstetric management. The District Health Department must provide clean birthing kits and regular and emergency contraceptives in the relief camps.

Keywords: natural disaster, maternity care model, rural, Pakistan, community health workers

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Minami Ito, Akihiro Iijima

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On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred off the coast of Sanriku, Japan. It is important to build a sustainable society through the reconstruction process rather than simply restoring the infrastructure. To compare the goals of reconstruction plans of quake-stricken municipalities, Japanese language morphological analysis was performed by using text mining techniques. Frequently-used nouns were sorted into four main categories of “life”, “disaster prevention”, “economy”, and “harmony with environment”. Because Soma City is affected by nuclear accident, sentences tagged to “harmony with environment” tended to be frequent compared to the other municipalities. Results from cluster analysis and principle component analysis clearly indicated that the local government reinforces the efforts to reduce risks from radiation exposure as a top priority.

Keywords: eco-friendly reconstruction, harmony with environment, decontamination, nuclear disaster

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Authors: Jack L. Harris, Marya L. Doerfel, Hyunsook Youn, Minkyung Kim, Kautuki Sunil Jariwala

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Organizational resilience refers to the ability to sustain business or general work functioning despite wide-scale interruptions. We focus on organization and businesses as a pillar of their communities and how they attempt to sustain work when a natural disaster impacts their surrounding regions and economies. While it may be more common to think of resilience as a trait possessed by an organization, an emerging area of research recognizes that for organizations and businesses, resilience is a set of processes that are constituted through communication, social networks, and organizing. Indeed, five processes, robustness, rapidity, resourcefulness, redundancy, and external availability through social media have been identified as critical to organizational resilience. These organizing mechanisms involve multi-level coordination, where individuals intersect with groups, organizations, and communities. Because the nature of such interactions are often networks of people and organizations coordinating material resources, information, and support, they necessarily require some way to coordinate despite being displaced. Little is known, however, if physical and digital spaces can substitute one for the other. We thus are guided by the question, is digital space sufficient when disaster creates a scarcity of physical space? This study presents a cross-case comparison based on field research from four different regions of the United States that were impacted by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Sandy (2012), Maria (2017), and Harvey (2017). These four cases are used to extend the science of resilience by examining multi-level processes enacted by individuals, communities, and organizations that together, contribute to the resilience of disaster-struck organizations, businesses, and their communities. Using field research about organizations and businesses impacted by the four hurricanes, we code data from interviews, participant observations, field notes, and document analysis drawn from New Orleans (post-Katrina), coastal New Jersey (post-Sandy), Houston Texas (post-Harvey), and the lower keys of Florida (post-Maria). This paper identifies an additional organizing mechanism, networked gathering spaces, where citizens and organizations, alike, coordinate and facilitate information sharing, material resource distribution, and social support. Findings show that digital space, alone, is not a sufficient substitute to effectively sustain organizational resilience during a disaster. Because the data are qualitative, we expand on this finding with specific ways in which organizations and the people who lead them worked around the problem of scarce space. We propose that gatherings after disaster are a sixth mechanism that contributes to organizational resilience.

Keywords: communication, coordination, disaster management, information and communication technologies, interorganizational relationships, resilience, work

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Munenari Inoguchi, Keiko Tamura

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In Japan, we were suffered by earthquake, typhoon, and flood disaster in 2019. Especially, 38 of 47 prefectures were affected by typhoon #1919 occurred in October 2019. By this disaster, 99 people were dead, three people were missing, and 484 people were injured as human damage. Furthermore, 3,081 buildings were totally collapsed, 24,998 buildings were half-collapsed. Once disaster occurs, local responders have to inspect damage level of each building by themselves in order to certificate building damage for survivors for starting their life reconstruction process. At that disaster, the total number to be inspected was so high. Based on this situation, Cabinet Office of Japan approved the way to detect building damage level efficiently, that is collectively detection. However, they proposed a just guideline, and local responders had to establish the concrete and infallible method by themselves. Against this issue, we decided to establish the effective and efficient methodology to detect building damage level collectively with flood depth. Besides, we thought that the flood depth was relied on the land height, and we decided to utilize GIS (Geographic Information System) for analyzing the elevation spatially. We focused on the analyzing tool of spatial interpolation, which is utilized to survey the ground water level usually. In establishing the methodology, we considered 4 key-points: 1) how to satisfy the condition defined in the guideline approved by Cabinet Office for detecting building damage level, 2) how to satisfy survivors for the result of building damage level, 3) how to keep equitability and fairness because the detection of building damage level was executed by public institution, 4) how to reduce cost of time and human-resource because they do not have enough time and human-resource for disaster response. Then, we proposed a methodology for detecting building damage level collectively with flood depth utilizing GIS with five steps. First is to obtain the boundary of flooded area. Second is to collect the actual flood depth as sampling over flooded area. Third is to execute spatial analysis of interpolation with sampled flood depth to detect two-dimensional flood depth extent. Fourth is to divide to blocks by four categories of flood depth (non-flooded, over the floor to 100 cm, 100 cm to 180 cm and over 180 cm) following lines of roads for getting satisfaction from survivors. Fifth is to put flood depth level to each building. In Koriyama city of Fukushima prefecture, we proposed the methodology of collectively detection for building damage level as described above, and local responders decided to adopt our methodology at typhoon #1919 in 2019. Then, we and local responders detect building damage level collectively to over 1,000 buildings. We have received good feedback that the methodology was so simple, and it reduced cost of time and human-resources.

Keywords: building damage inspection, flood, geographic information system, spatial interpolation

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Abena Abokoma Asemanyi

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The study examined how the National Disasters are framed in the print media: a study of Daily Graphic newspaper in Ghana. The communication theories employed to conduct this study was Agenda Setting Theory by McCombs and Shaw and the Framing theory by Goffman and Entman. The media’s coverage of National Disasters are of much concern to the general public. This research seeks to know how the Daily Graphic framed National Disasters that occurred in January 2015 and June 2015 respectively. The January 2015 National Disasters was termed as Fire Outbreaks while the June 2015 National Disasters was Twin Disasters. A total of 43 disaster news stories were analysed for this study. Out of the total number, 9 headline stories were analysed in the month of January 2015 and 34 headline stories were looked at in the month of June 2015. The study came up with five (5) themes. Through Content Analysis, the study also revealed that the theme of Action featured more than the other themes which are Fear, Violence, Sympathy and Confusion. Finally, the study showed the number of days disaster news headlines lasted in the Daily Graphic during the period stated above. It was revealed that the Fire Outbreaks in January 2015 appeared in the Daily Graphic for 8 days while the Twin Disasters appeared in 16 days in June 2015.

Keywords: national disaster framing, ghana, daily graphic, daily guide

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

Abstract:

Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Josef Steinberger, Vanni Zavarella, Hristo Tanev

Abstract:

Natural disasters cause tens of thousands of victims and massive material damages. We refer to all those events caused by natural disasters, such as damage on people, infrastructure, vehicles, services and resource supply, as micro events. This paper addresses the problem of micro - event detection in online media sources. We present a natural language grammar learning algorithm and apply it to online news. The algorithm in question is based on distributional clustering and detection of word collocations. We also explore the extraction of micro-events from social media and describe a Twitter mining robot, who uses combinations of keywords to detect tweets which talk about effects of disasters.

Keywords: online news, natural language processing, machine learning, event extraction, crisis computing, disaster effects, Twitter

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

Abstract:

Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

Abstract:

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

Abstract:

In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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