Search results for: Grey prediction model

Authors: T. Yuri, M. Zagloel, Inaki M. Hakim, Tegu Bintang Nugraha

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In an era of customer centricity, automotive parts manufacturer in Indonesia must be able to keep up with the uncertainty and fluctuation of consumer demand. Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) is a strategy to react to predicted and unpredicted changes of demand in automotive industry. This research is about flexible mixed model assembly line design through Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Line Balancing in mixed model assembly line prior to simulation. It uses value stream mapping to identify and reduce waste while finding the best position to add or reduce manpower. Line balancing is conducted to minimize or maximize production rate while increasing assembly line productivity and efficiency. Results of this research is a recommendation of standard work combination for specifics demand scenario which can enhance assembly line efficiency and productivity.

Keywords: automotive industry, demand uncertainty, flexible assembly system, line balancing, value stream mapping

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Authors: J. Martin Leal-Graciano, Juan J. Pérez-Gavilán, A. Reyes-Salazar, J. H. Castorena, J. L. Rivera-Salas

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The experimental results about the global behavior of twelve 1:2 scaled reinforced concrete frame subject to in-plane lateral load are presented. The main objective was to generate experimental evidence about the use of steel bars within mortar bed-joints as shear reinforcement in infill walls. Similar to the Canadian and New Zealand standards, the Mexican code includes specifications for this type of reinforcement. However, these specifications were obtained through experimental studies of load-bearing walls, mainly confined walls. Little information is found in the existing literature about the effects of joint reinforcement on the seismic behavior of infill masonry walls. Consequently, the Mexican code establishes the same equations to estimate the contribution of joint reinforcement for both confined walls and infill walls. A confined masonry construction and a reinforced concrete frame infilled with masonry walls have similar appearances. However, substantial differences exist between these two construction systems, which are mainly related to the sequence of construction and to how these structures support vertical and lateral loads. To achieve the objective established, ten reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls were built and tested in pairs, having both specimens in the pair identical characteristics except that one of them included joint reinforcement. The variables between pairs were the type of units, the size of the columns of the frame and the aspect ratio of the wall. All cases included tie-columns and tie-beams on the perimeter of the wall to anchor the joint reinforcement. Also, two bare frame with identical characteristic to the infilled frames were tested. The purpose was to investigate the effects of the infill wall on the behavior of the system to in-plane lateral load. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the prediction of the Mexican code. All the specimens were tested in cantilever under reversible cyclic lateral load. To simulate gravity load, constant vertical load was applied on the top of the columns. The results indicate that the contribution of the joint reinforcement to lateral strength depends on the size of the columns of the frame. Larger size columns produce a failure mode that is predominantly a sliding mode. Sliding inhibits the production of new inclined cracks, which are necessary to activate (deform) the joint reinforcement. Regarding the effects of joint reinforcement in the performance of confined masonry walls, many facts were confirmed for infill walls: this type of reinforcement increases the lateral strength of the wall, produces a more distributed cracking and reduces the width of the cracks. Moreover, it reduces the ductility demand of the system at maximum strength. The prediction of the lateral strength provided by the Mexican code is property in some cases; however, the effect of the size of the columns on the contribution of joint reinforcement needs to be better understood.

Keywords: experimental study, Infill wall, Infilled frame, masonry wall

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Authors: Jutamas Wisansing, Thanakarn Vongvisitsin, Udom Hongchatikul

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Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration (DASTA) is a public organization, dedicating to sustainable tourism development in 6 designated areas in Thailand. This paper provides rich reflections from a decade of DASTA, formulating an advanced model to deepen our understanding of 2 key intertwining issues; 1) what are the new landscapes of actors for community based tourism and 2) who are the benefactors and beneficiaries of tourism development within the community? An action research approach was used, enabling the process and evidence-based cases to be better captured. The aim is to build theoretical foundation through 13 communities/cases, which have engaged in community based tourism pilot projects. Drawing from emic and qualitative research, specific and contextual phenomenon provides succinct patterns of ‘Community Benefitting through Tourism (CbtT)’ model. The re-definition of the 2 key issues helps shape the interlinking of actors; practicalities of inclusive tourism and inter-sectoral framework and its value chain will also be set forth. In tourism sector, community members could be active primarily on the supply side as employees, entrepreneurs and local heritage experts. CbtT when well defined stimulates the entire value chain of local economy while promoting social innovation through positive dialogue with wider actors. Collaboration with a new set of actors who are from the tourism-related businesses and non-tourism related businesses create better impacts on mutual benefits.

Keywords: community based tourism, community benefitting through tourism -CbtT DASTA model, sustainable tourism in thailand, value chain and inclusive business

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Authors: Salman Obaidoon, Mohamed Hassan, Omer Bakather

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As environmental regulations increase, the need for a clean and inexpensive energy is becoming necessary these days using an available raw material with high efficiency and low emissions of toxic gases. This paper presents a study on modifying a gas turbine power plant fired by diesel, which is located in Saudi Arabia in order to increase the efficiency and capacity of the station as well as decrease the rate of emissions. The studied power plant consists of 30 units with different capacities and total net power is 1470 MW. The study was conducted on unit number 25 (GT-25) which produces 72.3 MW with 29.5% efficiency. In the beginning, the unit was modeled and simulated by using WinSim Design II software. In this step, actual unit data were used in order to test the validity of the model. The net power and efficiency obtained from software were 76.4 MW and 32.2% respectively. A difference of about 6% was found in the simulated power plant compared to the actual station which means that the model is valid. After the validation of the model, the simple gas turbine power plant was converted to a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). In this case, the exhausted gas released from the gas turbine was introduced to a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), which consists of three heat exchangers: an economizer, an evaporator and a superheater. In this proposed model, many scenarios were conducted in order to get the optimal operating conditions. The net power of CCPP was increased to 116.4 MW while the overall efficiency of the unit was reached to 49.02%, consuming the same amount of fuel for the gas turbine power plant. For the purpose of comparing the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide on each model. It was found that the rate of CO₂ emissions was decreased from 15.94 kg/s to 9.22 kg/s by using the combined cycle power model as a result of reducing of the amount of diesel from 5.08 kg/s to 2.94 kg/s needed to produce 76.5 MW. The results indicate that the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide was decreased by 42.133% in CCPP compared to the simple gas turbine power plant.

Keywords: combined cycle power plant, efficiency, heat recovery steam generator, simulation, validation, WinSim design II software

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

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The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

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Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

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Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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Authors: Mohammad Afkhami, Ali Hassanpour, Michael Fairweather

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The work described in this paper was undertaken to gain insight into fundamental aspects of turbulent gas-particle flows with relevance to processes employed in a wide range of applications, such as oil and gas flow assurance in pipes, powder dispersion from dry powder inhalers, and particle resuspension in nuclear waste ponds, to name but a few. In particular, the influence of particle interaction and fluid phase behavior in turbulent flow on particle dispersion in a horizontal channel is investigated. The mathematical modeling technique used is based on the large eddy simulation (LES) methodology embodied in the commercial CFD code FLUENT, with flow solutions provided by this approach coupled to a second commercial code, EDEM, based on the discrete element method (DEM) which is used for the prediction of particle motion and interaction. The results generated by LES for the fluid phase have been validated against direct numerical simulations (DNS) for three different channel flows with shear Reynolds numbers, Reτ = 150, 300 and 590. Overall, the LES shows good agreement, with mean velocities and normal and shear stresses matching those of the DNS in both magnitude and position. The research work has focused on the prediction of those conditions favoring particle aggregation and deposition within turbulent flows. Simulations have been carried out to investigate the effects of particle size, density and concentration on particle agglomeration. Furthermore, particles with different surface properties have been simulated in three channel flows with different levels of flow turbulence, achieved by increasing the Reynolds number of the flow. The simulations mimic the conditions of two-phase, fluid-solid flows frequently encountered in domestic, commercial and industrial applications, for example, air conditioning and refrigeration units, heat exchangers, oil and gas suction and pressure lines. The particle size, density, surface energy and volume fractions selected are 45.6, 102 and 150 µm, 250, 1000 and 2159 kg m-3, 50, 500, and 5000 mJ m-2 and 7.84 × 10-6, 2.8 × 10-5, and 1 × 10-4, respectively; such particle properties are associated with particles found in soil, as well as metals and oxides prevalent in turbulent bounded fluid-solid flows due to erosion and corrosion of inner pipe walls. It has been found that the turbulence structure of the flow dominates the motion of the particles, creating particle-particle interactions, with most of these interactions taking place at locations close to the channel walls and in regions of high turbulence where their agglomeration is aided both by the high levels of turbulence and the high concentration of particles. A positive relationship between particle surface energy, concentration, size and density, and agglomeration was observed. Moreover, the results derived for the three Reynolds numbers considered show that the rate of agglomeration is strongly influenced for high surface energy particles by, and increases with, the intensity of the flow turbulence. In contrast, for lower surface energy particles, the rate of agglomeration diminishes with an increase in flow turbulence intensity.

Keywords: agglomeration, channel flow, DEM, LES, turbulence

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: initial cost, life-cycle cost, maintenance cost, reliability

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building, Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that this simplification would only lead to the error that is less than 7% for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which can cover most situations.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador

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Authors: J. Bahrawi, M. Elhag

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Estimation of evapotranspiration is always a major component in water resources management. Traditional techniques of calculating daily evapotranspiration based on field measurements are valid only for local scales. Earth observation satellite sensors are thus used to overcome difficulties in obtaining daily evapotranspiration measurements on regional scale. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was adopted to estimate daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation along with other land surface energy fluxes. The model requires agro-climatic data that improve the model outputs. Advance Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Medium Spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imageries were used to estimate the daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation over the entire Nile Delta region in Egypt supported by meteorological data collected from six different weather stations located within the study area. Daily evapotranspiration maps derived from SEBS model show a strong agreement with actual ground-truth data taken from 92 points uniformly distributed all over the study area. Moreover, daily evapotranspiration and relative evaporation are strongly correlated. The reliable estimation of daily evapotranspiration supports the decision makers to review the current land use practices in terms of water management, while enabling them to propose proper land use changes.

Keywords: daily evapotranspiration, relative evaporation, SEBS, AATSR, MERIS, Nile Delta

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Authors: Le Ngoc Hung, Abriak Nor Edine, Binetruy Christophe, Benzerzour Mahfoud, Shahrour Isam, Patrice Rivard

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Bottom ash from Municipal Solid Waste Incineration (MSWI) can be viewed as a typical granular material because these industrial by-products result from the incineration of various domestic wastes. MSWI bottom ashes are mainly used in road engineering in substitution of the traditional natural aggregates. As the characterization of their mechanical behavior is essential in order to use them, specific studies have been led over the past few years. In the first part of this paper, the mechanical behavior of MSWI bottom ash is studied with triaxial tests. After analysis of the experiment results, the simulation of triaxial tests is carried out by using the software package CESAR-LCPC. As the first approach in modeling of this new class material, the Mohr-Coulomb model was chosen to describe the evolution of material under the influence of external mechanical actions.

Keywords: bottom ash, granular material, triaxial test, mechanical behavior, simulation, Mohr-Coulomb model, CESAR-LCPC

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Authors: Getachew Tilahun, Oluwole Makinde, David Malonza

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We propose and analyze a non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of pneumonia disease in a population of varying size. The deterministic compartmental model is studied using stability theory of differential equations. The effective reproduction number is obtained and also the local and global asymptotically stability conditions for the disease free and as well as for the endemic equilibria are established. The model exhibit a backward bifurcation and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number to the key parameters are determined. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the optimal control problem is formulated with three control strategies; namely disease prevention through education, treatment and screening. The cost effectiveness analysis of the adopted control strategies revealed that the combination of prevention and treatment is the most cost effective intervention strategies to combat the pneumonia pandemic. Numerical simulation is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically.

Keywords: cost effectiveness analysis, optimal control, pneumonia dynamics, stability analysis, numerical simulation

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Authors: Juan M. Rodriguez-Diaz

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The precision of parameter estimators in the Gaussian linear model is traditionally accounted by the variance-covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution. However, this measure can underestimate the true variance, specially for small samples. Traditionally, optimal design theory pays attention to this variance through its relationship with the model's information matrix. For this reason it seems convenient, at least in some cases, adapt the optimality criteria in order to get the best designs for the actual variance structure, otherwise the loss in efficiency of the designs obtained with the traditional approach may be very important.

Keywords: correlated observations, information matrix, optimality criteria, variance-covariance matrix

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Authors: Somdech Rungsrisawat

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The objective of this research was to investigate how to develop an appropriate management and administration model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. A combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods was employed. The data collection was from the 8 experts who were the academic staff and entrepreneurs in films, television, multimedia and performing arts, and from 471 students studying in the communication arts field. The findings of this research paper presented the appropriate management and administration model for the College of Film, Television, Multimedia and Performing Arts, which depended on 3 factors: [i] the marketing management and the supporting facilities such as buildings, equipments and accessibility for students to the college; [ii] the competency of academic staff or lecturers and supporting staff; and [iii] career opportunities after graduation.

Keywords: educational institution management, educational management, learning resources, non-formal education, Thai qualifications framework for higher education

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Authors: Afshan Saad, Muhammad Saad, Shah Muhammad Emaduddin

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Nowadays the business condition is so quick paced that enhancing ourselves consistently has turned into a huge factor for the presence of an undertaking. We can check this for structural building and significantly more so in the quick-paced universe of data innovation and programming designing. The lithe philosophies, similar to Scrum, have a devoted advance in the process that objectives the enhancement of the improvement procedure and programming items. Pivotal to process enhancement is to pick up data that grants you to assess the condition of the procedure and its items. From the status data, you can design activities for the upgrade and furthermore assess the accomplishment of those activities. This investigation builds a model that measures the product nature of the improvement procedure. The product quality is dependent on the useful and auxiliary nature of the product items, besides the nature of the advancement procedure is likewise vital to enhance programming quality. Utilitarian quality covers the adherence to client prerequisites, while the auxiliary quality tends to the structure of the product item's source code with reference to its practicality. The procedure quality is identified with the consistency and expectedness of the improvement procedure. The product quality model is connected in a business setting by social occasion the information for the product measurements in the model. To assess the product quality model, we investigate the information and present it to the general population engaged with the light-footed programming improvement process. The outcomes from the application and the client input recommend that the model empowers a reasonable evaluation of the product quality and that it very well may be utilized to help the persistent enhancement of the advancement procedure and programming items.

Keywords: Agile SDLC Tools, Agile Software development, business value, enterprise applications, IBM, IBM Rational Team Concert, RTC, software quality, software metrics

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Authors: A. A. Okafor, C. H. Achebe, J. L. Chukwuneke, C. G. Ozoegwu

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The performance of an engine whose basic design parameters are known can be predicted with the assistance of simulation programs into the less time, cost and near value of actual. This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical model of the performance parameters of four stroke spark ignition engine. The essence of this research work is to develop a mathematical model for the analysis of engine performance parameters of four stroke spark ignition engine before embarking on full scale construction, this will ensure that only optimal parameters are in the design and development of an engine and also allow to check and develop the design of the engine and it’s operation alternatives in an inexpensive way and less time, instead of using experimental method which requires costly research test beds. To achieve this, equations were derived which describe the performance parameters (sfc, thermal efficiency, mep and A/F). The equations were used to simulate and optimize the engine performance of the model for various engine speeds. The optimal values obtained for the developed bivariate mathematical models are: sfc is 0.2833kg/kwh, efficiency is 28.77% and a/f is 20.75.

Keywords: bivariate models, engine performance, injector engine, optimization, performance parameters, simulation, spark ignition

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Authors: M. Alsharqawi, T. Zayed, S. Abu Dabous

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To ensure safety and serviceability of bridge infrastructure, accurate condition assessment and rating methods are needed to provide basis for bridge Maintenance, Repair and Replacement (MRR) decisions. In North America, the common practices to assess condition of bridges are through visual inspection. These practices are limited to detect surface defects and external flaws. Further, the thresholds that define the severity of bridge deterioration are selected arbitrarily. The current research discusses the main deteriorations and defects identified during visual inspection and Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE). NDE techniques are becoming popular in augmenting the visual examination during inspection to detect subsurface defects. Quality inspection data and accurate condition assessment and rating are the basis for determining appropriate MRR decisions. Thus, in this paper, a novel method for bridge condition assessment using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) theory is utilized. The QFD model is designed to provide an integrated condition by evaluating both the surface and subsurface defects for concrete bridges. Moreover, an integrated condition rating index with four thresholds is developed based on the QFD condition assessment model and using K-means clustering technique. Twenty case studies are analyzed by applying the QFD model and implementing the developed rating index. The results from the analyzed case studies show that the proposed threshold model produces robust MRR recommendations consistent with decisions and recommendations made by bridge managers on these projects. The proposed method is expected to advance the state of the art of bridges condition assessment and rating.

Keywords: concrete bridge decks, condition assessment and rating, quality function deployment, k-means clustering technique

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Authors: Mikhail Zarechnev, Bora I. Kumova

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A syllogism is a deductive inference scheme used to derive a conclusion from a set of premises. In a categorical syllogisms, there are only two premises and every premise and conclusion is given in form of a quantified relationship between two objects. The different order of objects in premises give classification known as figures. We have shown that the ordered combinations of 3 generalized quantifiers with certain figure provide in total of 108 syllogistic moods which can be considered as different inference rules. The classical syllogistic system allows to model human thought and reasoning with syllogistic structures always attracted the attention of cognitive scientists. Since automated reasoning is considered as part of learning subsystem of AI agents, syllogistic system can be applied for this approach. Another application of syllogistic system is related to inference mechanisms on the Semantic Web applications. In this paper we proposed the mathematical model and algorithm for syllogistic reasoning. Also the model of iterative syllogistic reasoning in case of continuous flows of incoming data based on case–based reasoning and possible applications of proposed system were discussed.

Keywords: categorical syllogism, case-based reasoning, cognitive architecture, inference on the semantic web, syllogistic reasoning

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Authors: Narimen Rdhaounia Mohamed Kouni

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Our aim in this paper is to identify the origins of inflation in Tunisia on the period from 1988 to 2018. In order to estimate the model, an ARDL methodology is used. We studied also the effect of informal economy on inflation. Indeed, we estimated the size of the informal economy in Tunisia based on Gutmann method. The results showed that there are three main origins of inflation. In fact, the first origin is the fiscal policy adopted by Tunisia, particularly after revolution. The second origin is the increase of monetary variables. Finally, informal economy played an important role in inflation.

Keywords: inflation, consumer price index, informal, gutmann method, ARDL model

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Authors: Sixing Chen, Shuai Yang

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Online celebrity business, also known as Internet celebrity business (or Wanghong business in Chinese), is an emerging relational C2C business model, and an alternative to traditional C2C transactional business models. There are already millions of these consumers, and this number is growing. In this model, consumer purchase decisions are driven by recommendations and endorsements in videos posted online by celebrities. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relational constructs within consumer relationships in the Internet celebrity business model and to investigate relationships between the constructs and consumer purchase intention. A questionnaire-based study was conducted with consumers who had an awareness of, or prior purchase experience with online celebrities. The results of exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and multiple regression analysis revealed three valid relational constructs: product experience sharing, lifestyle association, and real-time interaction. This study indicated that these constructs had the direct effect on consumer preference and purchase intention. The findings of this study provide insight into a business model in which online shopping is driven by celebrities. They suggest that online celebrities should pay more attention to product experience sharing, life style association and real-time interaction for managing their product promotions. These are the most salient factors with respect to the relational constructs identified in this study.

Keywords: customer relationship, customer to customer, Internet celebrity, online celebrity, online marketing, purchase intention

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Authors: Xi Yang, Bulent Chavdar, Alan Vonseggern, Taylan Altan

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Fracture in hot precision forging of engine valves was investigated in this paper. The entire valve forging procedure was described and the possible cause of the fracture was proposed. Finite Element simulation was conducted for the forging process, with commercial Finite Element code DEFORMTM. The effects of material properties, the effect of strain rate and temperature were considered in the FE simulation. Two fracture criteria were discussed and compared, based on the accuracy and reliability of the FE simulation results. The selected criterion predicted the fracture location and shows the trend of damage increasing with good accuracy, which matches the experimental observation. Additional modification of the punch shapes was proposed to further reduce the tendency of fracture in forging. Finite Element comparison shows a great potential of such application in the mass production.

Keywords: hotforging, engine valve, fracture, tooling

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Authors: Narupot Putwattana

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Changes in global situation such as environmental and economic crisis brought the new perspective for science education called integrative biology. STEM has been increasingly mentioned for several educational researches as the approach which combines the concept in Science (S), Technology (T), Engineering (E) and Mathematics (M) to apply in teaching and learning process so as to strengthen the 21st-century skills such as creativity and critical thinking. Recent studies demonstrated STEM as the pedagogy which described the engineering process along with the science classroom activities. So far, pedagogical contents for STEM explaining the content in biology have been scarce. A qualitative literature review was conducted so as to gather the articles based on electronic databases (google scholar). STEM education, engineering design, teaching and learning of biology were used as main keywords to find out researches involving with the application of STEM in biology teaching and learning process. All articles were analyzed to obtain appropriate teaching and learning model that unify the core concept of biology. The synthesized model comprised of engineering design, inquiry-based learning, biological prototype and biologically-inspired design (BID). STEM content and context integration were used as the theoretical framework to create the integrative biology instructional model for STEM education. Several disciplines contents such as biology, engineering, and technology were regarded for inquiry-based learning to build biological prototype. Direct and indirect integrations were used to provide the knowledge into the biology related STEM strategy. Meanwhile, engineering design and BID showed the occupational context for engineer and biologist. Technological and mathematical aspects were required to be inspected in terms of co-teaching method. Lastly, other variables such as critical thinking and problem-solving skills should be more considered in the further researches.

Keywords: biomimicry, engineering approach, STEM education, teaching and learning model

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Authors: Amit Kumar

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Accurate identification of deteriorated air quality regions is very helpful in devising better environmental practices and mitigation efforts. In the present study, an attempt has been made to identify the air pollutant dispersion patterns especially NOX due to vehicular and industrial sources over a rapidly developing urban city, Visakhapatnam (17°42’ N, 83°20’ E), India, during April 2009. Using the emission factors of different vehicles as well as the industry, a high resolution 1 km x 1 km gridded emission inventory has been developed for Visakhapatnam city. A dispersion model AERMOD with explicit representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics and offline coupled through a developed coupler mechanism with a high resolution mesoscale model WRF-ARW resolution for simulating the dispersion patterns of NOX is used in the work. The meteorological as well as PBL parameters obtained by employing two PBL schemes viz., non-local Yonsei University (YSU) and local Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) of WRF-ARW model, which are reasonably representing the boundary layer parameters are considered for integrating AERMOD. Significantly different dispersion patterns of NOX have been noticed between summer and winter months. The simulated NOX concentration is validated with available six monitoring stations of Central Pollution Control Board, India. Statistical analysis of model evaluated concentrations with the observations reveals that WRF-ARW of YSU scheme with AERMOD has shown better performance. The deteriorated air quality locations are identified over Visakhapatnam based on the validated model simulations of NOX concentrations. The present study advocates the utility of tNumerical Simulation of Air Pollutant Using Coupled AERMOD-WRF Modeling System over Visakhapatnam: A Case Studyhe developed gridded emission inventory of NOX with coupled WRF-AERMOD modeling system for air quality assessment over the study region.

Keywords: WRF-ARW, AERMOD, planetary boundary layer, air quality

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Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

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Simulation of a photocatalytic reactor helps in understanding the complex behavior of the photocatalytic degradation. Simulation also aids the designing and optimization of the photocatalytic reactor. Lack of simulation strategies is a huge hindrance in the commercialization of the photocatalytic technology. With the increased performance of computational resources, and development of simulation software, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is becoming an affordable engineering tool to simulate and optimize reactor designs. In the present paper, a CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) model for simulating the performance of an immobilized-titanium dioxide based annular photocatalytic reactor was developed. The computational model integrates hydrodynamics, species mass transport, and chemical reaction kinetics using a commercial CFD code Fluent 6.3.26. The CFD model was based on the intrinsic kinetic parameters determined experimentally in a perfectly mixed batch reactor. Rhodamine B, a complex organic compound, was selected as a test pollutant for photocatalytic degradation. It was observed that CFD could become a valuable tool to understand and improve the photocatalytic systems.

Keywords: simulation, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), annular photocatalytic reactor, titanium dioxide

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

Abstract:

Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: A. J. Julius, E. Imoagene, O. A. Ganiyu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the services and functions rendered by the forest landscape using a conditional logit model. For this study, attributes and levels of forest landscape were chosen; specifically, attributes include topographical forest type, forest type, forest density, recreational factor (side trip, accessibility of valley), and willingness to participate (WTP). Based on these factors, 48 choices sets with balanced and orthogonal form using statistical analysis system (SAS) 9.1 was adopted. The efficiency of the questionnaire was 6.02 (D-Error. 0.1), and choice set and socio-economic variables were analyzed. To reduce the cognitive load of respondents, the 48 choice sets were divided into 4 types in the questionnaire, so that respondents could respond to 12 choice sets, respectively. The study populations were citizens from seven metropolitan cities including Ibadan, Ilorin, Osogbo, etc. and annual WTP per household was asked by using the interview questionnaire, a total of 267 copies were recovered. As a result, Oshogbo had 0.45, and the statistical similarities could not be found except for urban forests, forest density, recreational factor, and level of WTP. Average annual WTP per household for forest landscape was 104,758 Naira (Nigerian currency) based on the outcome from this model, total economic value of the services and functions enjoyed from Nigerian forest landscape has reached approximately 1.6 trillion Naira.

Keywords: economic valuation, urban cities, services, forest landscape, logit model, nigeria

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Authors: Jean Yves Trepanier, Sami Ammar, Sagnik Banik

Abstract:

Lattice Boltzmann Method has been advantageous in simulating complex boundary conditions and solving for fluid flow parameters by streaming and collision processes. This paper includes the study of three different test cases in a confined domain using the method of the Lattice Boltzmann model. 1. An SRT (Single Relaxation Time) approach in the Lattice Boltzmann model is used to simulate Lid Driven Cavity flow for different Reynolds Number (100, 400 and 1000) with a domain aspect ratio of 1, i.e., square cavity. A moment-based boundary condition is used for more accurate results. 2. A Thermal Lattice BGK (Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook) Model is developed for the Rayleigh Benard convection for both test cases - Horizontal and Vertical Temperature difference, considered separately for a Boussinesq incompressible fluid. The Rayleigh number is varied for both the test cases (10^3 ≤ Ra ≤ 10^6) keeping the Prandtl number at 0.71. A stability criteria with a precise forcing scheme is used for a greater level of accuracy. 3. The phase change problem governed by the heat-conduction equation is studied using the enthalpy based Lattice Boltzmann Model with a single iteration for each time step, thus reducing the computational time. A double distribution function approach with D2Q9 (density) model and D2Q5 (temperature) model are used for two different test cases-the conduction dominated melting and the convection dominated melting. The solidification process is also simulated using the enthalpy based method with a single distribution function using the D2Q5 model to provide a better understanding of the heat transport phenomenon. The domain for the test cases has an aspect ratio of 2 with some exceptions for a square cavity. An approximate velocity scale is chosen to ensure that the simulations are within the incompressible regime. Different parameters like velocities, temperature, Nusselt number, etc. are calculated for a comparative study with the existing works of literature. The simulated results demonstrate excellent agreement with the existing benchmark solution within an error limit of ± 0.05 implicates the viability of this method for complex fluid flow problems.

Keywords: BGK, Nusselt, Prandtl, Rayleigh, SRT

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period

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