Search results for: AR linear estimation

Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Debabrata Bhadra, B. K. Chaudhuri

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The operation of organic thin film transistors (OFETs) with low voltage is currently a prevailing issue. We have fabricated anthracene thin-film transistor (TFT) with an ultrathin layer (~450nm) of Poly-vinylidene fluoride (PVDF)/CuO nanocomposites as a gate insulator. We obtained a device with excellent electrical characteristics at low operating voltages (<1V). Different layers of the film were also prepared to achieve the best optimization of ideal gate insulator with various static dielectric constant (εr ). Capacitance density, leakage current at 1V gate voltage and electrical characteristics of OFETs with a single and multi layer films were investigated. This device was found to have highest field effect mobility of 2.27 cm2/Vs, a threshold voltage of 0.34V, an exceptionally low sub threshold slope of 380 mV/decade and an on/off ratio of 106. Such favorable combination of properties means that these OFETs can be utilized successfully as voltages below 1V. A very simple fabrication process has been used along with step wise poling process for enhancing the pyroelectric effects on the device performance. The output characteristic of OFET after poling were changed and exhibited linear current-voltage relationship showing the evidence of large polarization. The temperature dependent response of the device was also investigated. The stable performance of the OFET after poling operation makes it reliable in temperature sensor applications. Such High-ε CuO/PVDF gate dielectric appears to be highly promising candidates for organic non-volatile memory and sensor field-effect transistors (FETs).

Keywords: organic field effect transistors, thin film transistor, gate dielectric, organic semiconductor

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Authors: Cemil Kutluturk

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This is a comparative study of the incarnation of God according to Hinduism and Christianity. After dealing with their basic ideas on the concept of the incarnation of God, the main similarities and differences between each other will be examined by quoting references from their sacred texts. In Hinduism, the term avatara is used in order to indicate the concept of the incarnation of God. The word avatara is derived from ava (down) and tri (to cross, to save, attain). Thus avatara means to come down or to descend. Although an avatara is commonly considered as an appearance of any deity on earth, the term refers particularly to descents of Vishnu. According to Hinduism, God becomes an avatara in every age and entering into diverse wombs for the sake of establishing righteousness. On the Christian side, the word incarnation means enfleshment. In Christianity, it is believed that the Logos or Word, the Second Person of Trinity, presumed human reality. Incarnation refers both to the act of God becoming a human being and to the result of his action, namely the permanent union of the divine and human natures in the one Person of the Word. When the doctrines of incarnation and avatara are compared some similarities and differences can be found between each other. The basic similarity is that both doctrines are not bound by the laws of nature as human beings are. They reveal God’s personal love and concern, and emphasize loving devotion. Their entry into the world is generally accompanied by extraordinary signs. In both cases, the descent of God allows for human beings to ascend to God. On the other hand, there are some distinctions between two religious traditions. For instance, according to Hinduism there are many and repeated avataras, while Christ comes only once. Indeed, this is related to the respective cyclic and linear worldviews of the two religions. Another difference is that in Hinduism avataras are real and perfect, while in Christianity Christ is also real, yet imperfect; that is, he has human imperfections, except sin. While Christ has never been thought of as a partial incarnation, in Hinduism there are some partial and full avataras. The other difference is that while the purpose of Christ is primarily ultimate salvation, not every avatara grants ultimate liberation, some of them come only to save a devotee from a specific predicament.

Keywords: Avatara, Christianity, Hinduism, incarnation

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Authors: Daniel Assefa, Engeda Dessalegn, Chetan Chauhan

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Moringa stenopetala is a socioeconomic valued tree that is widely available and cultivated in the Southern part of Ethiopia. The leaves have been traditionally used as a food source with high nutritional and medicinal values. The present work was carried out to evaluate the effect of thermal treatment on the total phenolic content, antioxidant and alpha-amylase inhibition activities of aqueous leaf extracts during maceration and different decoction time interval (5, 10 and 15 min). The total phenolic content was determined by the Folin-ciocalteu methods whereas antioxidant activities were determined by 2,2-diphenyl-1-picryl-hydrazyl(DPPH) radical scavenging, reducing power and ferrous ion chelating assays and alpha-amylase inhibition activity was determined using 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid method. Total phenolic content ranged from 34.35 to 39.47 mgGAE/g. Decoction for 10 min extract showed ferrous ion chelating (92.52), DPPH radical scavenging (91.52%), alpha-amylase inhibition (69.06%) and ferric reducing power (0.765), respectively. DPPH, reducing power and alpha-amylase inhibition activities showed positive linear correlation (R2=0.853, R2= 0.857 and R2=0.930), respectively with total phenolic content but ferrous ion chelating activity was found to be weakly correlated (R2=0.481). Based on the present investigation, it could be concluded that major loss of total phenolic content, antioxidant and alpha-amylase inhibition activities of the crude leaf extracts of Moringa stenopetala leaves were observed at decoction time for 15 min. Therefore, to maintain the total phenolic content, antioxidant, and alpha-amylase inhibition activities of leaves, cooking practice should be at the optimum decoction time (5-10 min).

Keywords: alpha-amylase inhibition, antioxidant, Moringa stenopetala, total phenolic content

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Authors: Matej Komanec, Jan Bohata, Stanislav Zvanovec, Tomas Nemecek, Jan Broucek, Josef Beran

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With the exponential growth of social networks, video streaming and increasing demands on data rates, the number of newly built data centers rises proportionately. The data centers, however, have to adjust to the rapidly increased amount of data that has to be processed. For this purpose, multi-mode (MM) fiber based infrastructures are often employed. It stems from the fact, the connections in data centers are typically realized within a short distance, and the application of MM fibers and components considerably reduces costs. On the other hand, the usage of MM components brings specific requirements for installation service conditions. Moreover, it has to be taken into account that MM fiber components have a higher production tolerance for parameters like core and cladding diameters, eccentricity, etc. Due to the high demands for the reliability of data center components, the determination of properly excited optical field inside the MM fiber core belongs to the key parameters while designing such an MM optical system architecture. Appropriately excited mode field of the MM fiber provides optimal power budget in connections, leads to the decrease of insertion losses (IL) and achieves effective modal bandwidth (EMB). The main parameter, in this case, is the encircled flux (EF), which should be properly defined for variable optical sources and consequent different mode-field distribution. In this paper, we present detailed investigation and measurements of the mode field distribution for short MM links purposed in particular for data centers with the emphasis on reliability and safety. These measurements are essential for large MM network design. The various scenarios, containing different fibers and connectors, were tested in terms of IL and mode-field distribution to reveal potential challenges. Furthermore, we focused on estimation of particular defects and errors, which can realistically occur like eccentricity, connector shifting or dust, were simulated and measured, and their dependence to EF statistics and functionality of data center infrastructure was evaluated. The experimental tests were performed at two wavelengths, commonly used in MM networks, of 850 nm and 1310 nm to verify EF statistics. Finally, we provide recommendations for data center systems and networks, using OM3 and OM4 MM fiber connections.

Keywords: optical fiber, multi-mode, data centers, encircled flux

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Mojtaba Barzegar, Alireza Shirazi, Saied Rabi Mahdavi

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Intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) is an innovative treatment modality that the delivery of a large single dose of radiation to the tumor bed during the surgery. The radiotherapy success depends on the absorbed dose delivered to the tumor. The achievement better accuracy in patient treatment depends upon the measured dose by standard dosimeter such as ionization chamber, but because of the high density of electric charge/pulse produced by the accelerator in the ionization chamber volume, the standard correction factor for ion recombination Ksat calculated with the classic two-voltage method is overestimated so the use of dose/pulse independent dosimeters such as chemical Fricke and ethanol chlorobenzene (ECB) dosimeters have been suggested. Dose measurement is usually calculated and calibrated in the Zmax. Ksat calculated by comparison of ion chamber response and ECB dosimeter at each applicator degree, size, and dose. The relative output factors for IORT applicators have been calculated and compared with experimentally determined values and the results simulated by Monte Carlo software. The absorbed doses have been calculated and measured with statistical uncertainties less than 0.7% and 2.5% consecutively. The relative differences between calculated and measured OF’s were up to 2.5%, for major OF’s the agreement was better. In these conditions, together with the relative absorbed dose calculations, the OF’s could be considered as an indication that the IORT electron beams have been well simulated. These investigations demonstrate the utility of the full Monte Carlo simulation of accelerator head with ECB dosimeter allow us to obtain detailed information of clinical IORT beams.

Keywords: intra operative radiotherapy, ethanol chlorobenzene, ksat, output factor, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Ziv Kassner, Gal Ribak

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Members of the Odonata order (dragonflies and damselflies) stand out for their maneuverability and superb flight control, which allow them to catch flying prey in the air. These outstanding aerial abilities were fine-tuned during millions of years of an evolutionary arms race between Odonata and their prey, providing an attractive research model for studying the relationship between sensory input – and aerodynamic output in a flying insect. The ability to catch a maneuvering target in air is interesting not just for insect behavioral ecology and neuroethology but also for designing small and efficient robotic air vehicles. While the aerial prey interception of dragonflies (suborder: Anisoptera) have been studied before, little is known about how damselflies (suborder: Zygoptera) intercept prey. Here, high-speed cameras (filming at 1000 frames per second) were used to explore how damselflies catch unpredictable targets that move through air. Blue-tailed damselflies - Ischnura elegans (family: Coenagrionidae) were introduced to a flight arena and filmed while landing on moving targets that were oscillated harmonically. The insects succeeded in capturing targets that were moved with an amplitude of 6 cm and frequencies of 0-2.5 Hz (fastest mean target speed of 0.3 m s⁻¹) and targets that were moved in 1 Hz (an average speed of 0.3 m s⁻¹) but with an amplitude of 15 cm. To land on stationary or slow targets, damselflies either flew directly to the target, or flew sideways, up to a point in which the target was fixed in the center of the field of view, followed by direct flight path towards the target. As the target moved in increased frequency, damselflies demonstrated an ability to track the targets while flying sideways and minimizing the changes of their body direction on the yaw axis. This was likely an attempt to keep the targets at the center of the visual field while minimizing rotational optic flow of the surrounding visual panorama. Stabilizing rotational optic flow helps in estimation of the velocity and distance of the target. These results illustrate how dynamic visual information is used by damselflies to guide them towards a maneuvering target, enabling the superb aerial hunting abilities of these insects. They also exemplifies the plasticity of the damselfly flight apparatus which enables flight in any direction, irrespective of the direction of the body.

Keywords: bio-mechanics, insect flight, target fixation, tracking and interception

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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The geological environment where the groundwater is collected represents the most important element that affects the behaviour of groundwater aquifer. As groundwater is a worldwide vital resource, it requires knowing the parameters that affect this source accurately so that the conceptualized mathematical models would be acceptable to the broadest ranges. Therefore, groundwater models have recently become an effective and efficient tool to investigate groundwater aquifer behaviours. Groundwater aquifer may contain aquitards, aquicludes, or interfaces within its geological formations. Aquitards and aquicludes have geological formations that forced the modellers to include those formations within the conceptualized groundwater models, while interfaces are commonly neglected from the conceptualization process because the modellers believe that the interface has no effect on aquifer behaviour. The current research highlights the impact of an interface existing in a real unconfined groundwater aquifer called Dibdibba, located in Al-Najaf City, Iraq where it has a river called the Euphrates River that passes through the eastern part of this city. Dibdibba groundwater aquifer consists of two types of soil layers separated by an interface soil layer. A groundwater model is built for Al-Najaf City to explore the impact of this interface. Calibration process is done using PEST 'Parameter ESTimation' approach and the best Dibdibba groundwater model is obtained. When the soil interface is conceptualized, results show that the groundwater tables are significantly affected by that interface through appearing dry areas of 56.24 km² and 6.16 km² in the upper and lower layers of the aquifer, respectively. The Euphrates River will also leak water into the groundwater aquifer of 7359 m³/day. While these results are changed when the soil interface is neglected where the dry area became 0.16 km², the Euphrates River leakage became 6334 m³/day. In addition, the conceptualized models (with and without interface) reveal different responses for the change in the recharge rates applied on the aquifer through the uncertainty analysis test. The aquifer of Dibdibba in Al-Najaf City shows a slight deficit in the amount of water supplied by the current pumping scheme and also notices that the Euphrates River suffers from stresses applied to the aquifer. Ultimately, this study shows a crucial need to represent the interface soil layer in model conceptualization to be the intended and future predicted behaviours more reliable for consideration purposes.

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater aquifer behaviour, groundwater modelling, interface soil layer, Visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Lakmali Anthony, Madeline Gillies

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Background: Incisional and ventral hernias are highly prevalent, with primary ventral hernias occurring in approximately 20% of adults and incisional hernias developing in up to 30% of midline abdominal incisions. Recent data from the United States have shown an increasing incidence of elective incisional and ventral hernia repair (IVHR) and emergency repair of complicated hernias. This study examines Australian population trends in IVHR over a two-decade study period. Methods: This retrospective study was performed using procedure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics captured between 2000 and 2021 to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population by age and sex for selected subcategories of IVHR operations. Trends over time were evaluated using simple linear regression. Results: There were 809,308 IVHR operations performed in Australia during the study period. The cumulative incidence adjusted for the population was 182 per 100,000; this increased by 9.578 per year during the study period (95% CI = 8.431- 10.726, p<.001). IVHR for primary umbilical hernias experienced the most significant increase in population-adjusted incidence, 1.177 per year. (95% CI = 0.654- 1.701, p<.001). Emergency IVHR for incarcerated, obstructed, and strangulated hernias increased by 0.576 per year (95% CI = 0.510 -0.642, p<.001). Only 20.2% of IVHR procedures were performed as day surgery. Conclusions: Australia has seen a significant increase in IVHR operations performed in the last 20 years, particularly those for primary ventral hernias. IVHR for hernias complicated by incarceration, obstruction, and strangulation also increased significantly. The proportion of IVHR operations performed as day surgery is well below the target set by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. With the increasing incidence of IVHR operations and an increasing proportion of these being emergent, elective IVHR should be performed as day surgery when it is safe.

Keywords: ventral, incisional, hernia, trends

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Authors: Usarat Thawornchaisit, Kamalasiri Juthaisong, Kasama Parsongjeen, Phonsiri Phoengchan

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In this study, sludge samples that were collected from the wastewater treatment plant of a printed circuit board manufacturing industry in Thailand were subjected to acid extraction using sulfuric acid as the chemical extracting agent. The effects of sulfuric acid concentration (A), the ratio of a volume of acid to a quantity of sludge (B) and extraction time (C) on the efficiency of copper extraction were investigated with the aim of finding the optimal conditions for maximum removal of copper from the wastewater treatment sludge. Factorial experimental design was employed to model the copper extraction process. The results were analyzed statistically using analysis of variance to identify the process variables that were significantly affected the copper extraction efficiency. Results showed that all linear terms and an interaction term between volume of acid to quantity of sludge ratio and extraction time (BC), had statistically significant influence on the efficiency of copper extraction under tested conditions in which the most significant effect was ascribed to volume of acid to quantity of sludge ratio (B), followed by sulfuric acid concentration (A), extraction time (C) and interaction term of BC, respectively. The remaining two-way interaction terms, (AB, AC) and the three-way interaction term (ABC) is not statistically significant at the significance level of 0.05. The model equation was derived for the copper extraction process and the optimization of the process was performed using a multiple response method called desirability (D) function to optimize the extraction parameters by targeting maximum removal. The optimum extraction conditions of 99% of copper were found to be sulfuric acid concentration: 0.9 M, ratio of the volume of acid (mL) to the quantity of sludge (g) at 100:1 with an extraction time of 80 min. Experiments under the optimized conditions have been carried out to validate the accuracy of the Model.

Keywords: acid treatment, chemical extraction, sludge, waste management

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Authors: Maxence Queyrel, Edi Prifti, Alexandre Templier, Jean-Daniel Zucker

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Analysis of the human microbiome using metagenomic sequencing data has demonstrated high ability in discriminating various human diseases. Raw metagenomic sequencing data require multiple complex and computationally heavy bioinformatics steps prior to data analysis. Such data contain millions of short sequences read from the fragmented DNA sequences and stored as fastq files. Conventional processing pipelines consist in multiple steps including quality control, filtering, alignment of sequences against genomic catalogs (genes, species, taxonomic levels, functional pathways, etc.). These pipelines are complex to use, time consuming and rely on a large number of parameters that often provide variability and impact the estimation of the microbiome elements. Training Deep Neural Networks directly from raw sequencing data is a promising approach to bypass some of the challenges associated with mainstream bioinformatics pipelines. Most of these methods use the concept of word and sentence embeddings that create a meaningful and numerical representation of DNA sequences, while extracting features and reducing the dimensionality of the data. In this paper we present an end-to-end approach that classifies patients into disease groups directly from raw metagenomic reads: metagenome2vec. This approach is composed of four steps (i) generating a vocabulary of k-mers and learning their numerical embeddings; (ii) learning DNA sequence (read) embeddings; (iii) identifying the genome from which the sequence is most likely to come and (iv) training a multiple instance learning classifier which predicts the phenotype based on the vector representation of the raw data. An attention mechanism is applied in the network so that the model can be interpreted, assigning a weight to the influence of the prediction for each genome. Using two public real-life data-sets as well a simulated one, we demonstrated that this original approach reaches high performance, comparable with the state-of-the-art methods applied directly on processed data though mainstream bioinformatics workflows. These results are encouraging for this proof of concept work. We believe that with further dedication, the DNN models have the potential to surpass mainstream bioinformatics workflows in disease classification tasks.

Keywords: deep learning, disease prediction, end-to-end machine learning, metagenomics, multiple instance learning, precision medicine

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Authors: Morteza Esfandiari, Shabnam Jabari, Heather MacGrath, David Coleman

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Flood is a severe issue in different places in the world as well as the city of Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada. The downtown area of Fredericton is close to the Saint John River, which is susceptible to flood around May every year. Recently, the frequency of flooding seems to be increased, especially after the fact that the downtown area and surrounding urban/agricultural lands got flooded in two consecutive years in 2018 and 2019. In order to have an explicit vision of flood span and damage to affected areas, it is necessary to use either flood inundation modelling or satellite data. Due to contingent availability and weather dependency of optical satellites, and limited existing data for the high cost of hydrodynamic models, it is not always feasible to rely on these sources of data to generate quality flood maps after or during the catastrophe. Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND), a state-of-the-art topo-hydrological index, normalizes the height of a basin based on the relative elevation along with the stream network and specifies the gravitational or the relative drainage potential of an area. HAND is a relative height difference between the stream network and each cell on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM). The stream layer is provided through a multi-step, time-consuming process which does not always result in an optimal representation of the river centerline depending on the topographic complexity of that region. HAND is used in numerous case studies with quite acceptable and sometimes unexpected results because of natural and human-made features on the surface of the earth. Some of these features might cause a disturbance in the generated model, and consequently, the model might not be able to predict the flow simulation accurately. We propose to include a previously existing stream layer generated by the province of New Brunswick and benefit from culvert maps to improve the water flow simulation and accordingly the accuracy of HAND model. By considering these parameters in our processing, we were able to increase the accuracy of the model from nearly 74% to almost 92%. The improved model can be used for generating highly accurate flood maps, which is necessary for future urban planning and flood damage estimation without any need for satellite imagery or hydrodynamic computations.

Keywords: HAND, DTM, rapid floodplain, simplified conceptual models

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Authors: Luís Marques, João Rocha, Andreia Fernandes, Maria Moura, Cláudia Caseiro, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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The implementation of circularity strategies other than recycling, such as reducing the amount of raw material, as well as reusing or sharing existing products, remains marginal. The European Commission announced that the transition towards a more circular economy could lead to the net creation of about 700,000 jobs in Europe by 2030, through additional labour demand from recycling plants, repair services and other circular activities. Efforts to create new circular business models in accordance with completely circular processes, as opposed to linear ones, have increased considerably in recent years. In order to create a societal Circular Economy transition model, it is necessary to include innovative solutions, where startups play a key role. Early-stage startups based on new business models according to circular processes often face difficulties in creating enough impact. The StartUp Zero Program designs a model and approach to increase the flow of startups in the Circular Economy field, focusing on a systemic decision analysis and multi-generational approach, considering Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to support a decision-making tool, which is also supported by the use of a combination of an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Multi-Attribute Value Theory methods. We define principles, criteria and indicators for evaluating startup prerogatives, quantifying the evaluation process in a unique result. Additionally, this entrepreneurship program spanning 16 months involved more than 2400 young people, from ages 14 to 23, in more than 200 interaction activities.

Keywords: circular economy, entrepreneurship, startups;, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Arash Parehkar, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Shoubo Bayazidi, Vahid Karami, Laleh Shahidi, Arash Azaranfar, Ali Moridi, M. Shabakhti, Tayebeh Ariyan, Mitra Tofigh, Kaveh Masoumi, Alireza Motahari

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Water resource systems modelling have constantly been a challenge through history for human being. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario.

Keywords: auto-calibration, Gilan, large-scale water resources, simulation

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Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

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Authors: Said Rashid Aal Abdulsallam

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The purpose of this paper is to measure ISO 9001:2008 effectiveness and determines its impact on the performance dimensions in terms of service quality, operational performance and customer satisfaction from the perspectives of both service providers and receivers. The paper is based on an empirical study carried out on all the ISO 9001:2008 certified departments in the Ministry of Education in the Sultanate of Oman. Data were obtained from the certified departments and their equivalent clients through two structured online questionnaires. Exploratory factor analyses are applied to extract the underlying factors of the indicators of ISO 9001 objectives and performance dimensions. Multiple linear regression analyses are also applied in order to determine the impact of ISO 9001 effectiveness on the performance dimensions of the certified departments. The study sample includes all the ISO 9001 certified departments in the Ministry of Education. The study instruments used target both the service providers as well as the service receivers with the purpose of alleviating the subjective nature of the data collected from the service providers who may be biased in favour of ISO 9001 quality management system or their performance. The findings of the study verify the effectiveness of the application of ISO 9001:2008 quality management system. Additionally, the study reveals that the ISO 9001 certified departments have achieved the ISO 9001 the standard's objectives including prevention of nonconformities, continuous improvement and customer satisfaction focus at different rates. The study also proves that there is a significant relation between the achievement of the ISO 9001 standard objectives and the operational performance of the departments. Even though the operational performance service quality of the ISO 9001 certified departments has substantially improved from the perspective of the departments, the customer satisfaction has not notably increased from the perspective of the service receivers.

Keywords: iso 9001, customer satisfaction, operational performance, public organization, quality management

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Authors: Karina Reiter, Stefan Dullinger, Christoph Plutzar, Dietmar Moser

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Due to population growth and changing patterns of production and consumption, the demand for natural resources and, as a result, the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems are growing. Biodiversity mapping can be a useful tool for assessing species endangerment or detecting hotspots of extinction risks. This paper explores the benefits of using the change in trophic energy flows as a consequence of the human alteration of the biosphere in biodiversity mapping. To this end, multiple linear regression models were developed to explain species richness in areas where there is no human influence (i.e. wilderness) for three taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, amphibians). The models were then applied to predict (I) potential global species richness using potential natural vegetation (NPPpot) and (II) global ‘actual’ species richness after biomass appropriation using NPP remaining in ecosystems after harvest (NPPeco). By calculating the difference between predicted potential and predicted actual species numbers, maps of estimated species richness loss were generated. Results show that biomass appropriation for human use can indeed be linked to biodiversity loss. Areas for which the models predicted high species loss coincide with areas where species endangerment and extinctions are recorded to be particularly high by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis revealed that while the species distribution maps of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species used for this research can determine hotspots of biodiversity loss in large parts of the world, the classification system for threatened and extinct species needs to be revised to better reflect local risks of extinction.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, biomass harvest, human appropriation of net primary production, species richness

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Authors: Tsedeke Lambore Gemecho, Ayele Taye Goshu

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The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the number of international migrants in a household and to compare regression models for count response. This study is done by collecting data from total of 2288 household heads of 16 randomly sampled districts in Hadiya and Kembata-Tembaro zones of Southern Ethiopia. The Poisson mixed models, as special cases of the generalized linear mixed model, is explored to determine effects of the predictors: age of household head, farm land size, and household size. Two ethnicities Hadiya and Kembata are included in the final model as dummy variables. Stepwise variable selection has indentified four predictors: age of head, farm land size, family size and dummy variable ethnic2 (0=other, 1=Kembata). These predictors are significant at 5% significance level with count response number of migrant. The Poisson mixed model consisting of the four predictors with random effects districts. Area specific random effects are significant with the variance of about 0.5105 and standard deviation of 0.7145. The results show that the number of migrant increases with heads age, family size, and farm land size. In conclusion, there is a significantly high number of international migration per household in the area. Age of household head, family size, and farm land size are determinants that increase the number of international migrant in households. Community-based intervention is needed so as to monitor and regulate the international migration for the benefits of the society.

Keywords: Poisson regression, GLM, number of migrant, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones

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Authors: Dawid Stawski, Silviya Halacheva, Dorota Zielińska

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The surface properties of many materials can be readily and predictably modified by the controlled deposition of thin layers containing appropriate functional groups and this research area is now a subject of widespread interest. The layer-by-layer (lbl) method involves depositing oppositely charged layers of polyelectrolytes onto the substrate material which are stabilized due to strong electrostatic forces between adjacent layers. This type of modification affords products that combine the properties of the original material with the superficial parameters of the new external layers. Through an appropriate selection of the deposited layers, the surface properties can be precisely controlled and readily adjusted in order to meet the requirements of the intended application. In the presented paper a variety of anionic (poly(acrylic acid)) and cationic (linear poly(ethylene imine), polymers were successfully deposited onto the polypropylene nonwoven using the lbl technique. The chemical structure of the surface before and after modification was confirmed by reflectance FTIR spectroscopy, volumetric analysis and selective dyeing tests. As a direct result of this work, new materials with greatly improved properties have been produced. For example, following a modification process significant changes in the electrostatic activity of a range of novel nanocomposite materials were observed. The deposition of polyelectrolyte nanolayers was found to strongly accelerate the loss of electrostatically generated charges and to increase considerably the thermal resistance properties of the modified fabric (the difference in T50% is over 20°C). From our results, a clear relationship between the type of polyelectrolyte layer deposited onto the flat fabric surface and the properties of the modified fabric was identified.

Keywords: layer-by-layer technique, polypropylene nonwoven, surface modification, surface properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: Aurea C. L. Lacerda, Paulo R. H. Moreno, Bruna M. P. Vianna, Cristina H. R. Serra, Airton Martin, André R. Baby, Vladi O. Consiglieri, Telma M. Kaneko

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The modified Franz cell is the most widely used model for in vitro permeation studies, however it still presents some disadvantages. Thus, some alternative methods have been developed such as Skin PAMPA, which is a bio- artificial membrane that has been applied for skin penetration estimation of xenobiotics based on HT permeability model consisting. Skin PAMPA greatest advantage is to carry out more tests, in a fast and inexpensive way. The membrane system mimics the stratum corneum characteristics, which is the primary skin barrier. The barrier properties are given by corneocytes embedded in a multilamellar lipid matrix. This layer is the main penetration route through the paracellular permeation pathway and it consists of a mixture of cholesterol, ceramides, and fatty acids as the dominant components. However, there is no consensus on the membrane composition. The objective of this work was to compare the performance among different bio-artificial membranes for studying the permeation in skin PAMPA system. Material and methods: In order to mimetize the lipid composition`s present in the human stratum corneum six membranes were developed. The membrane composition was equimolar mixture of cholesterol, ceramides 1-O-C18:1, C22, and C20, plus fatty acids C20 and C24. The membrane integrity assay was based on the transport of Brilliant Cresyl Blue, which has a low permeability; and Lucifer Yellow with very poor permeability and should effectively be completely rejected. The membrane characterization was performed using Confocal Laser Raman Spectroscopy, using stabilized laser at 785 nm with 10 second integration time and 2 accumulations. The membrane behaviour results on the PAMPA system were statistically evaluated and all of the compositions have shown integrity and permeability. The confocal Raman spectra were obtained in the region of 800-1200 cm-1 that is associated with the C-C stretches of the carbon scaffold from the stratum corneum lipids showed similar pattern for all the membranes. The ceramides, long chain fatty acids and cholesterol in equimolar ratio permitted to obtain lipid mixtures with self-organization capability, similar to that occurring into the stratum corneum. Conclusion: The artificial biological membranes studied for Skin PAMPA showed to be similar and with comparable properties to the stratum corneum.

Keywords: bio-artificial membranes, comparison, confocal Raman, skin PAMPA

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Authors: Biki Sarmah, Priyanko Raj Mudiar

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In the modern world of remotely interactive virtual reality-based learning and teaching, including professional skill-building training and acquisition practices, as well as data acquisition and robotic systems, the revolutionary application or implementation of field-programmable neurostimulator aids and first-hand interactive sensitisation techniques into 3D holographic audio-visual platforms have been a coveted dream of many scholars, professionals, scientists, and students. Integration of 'kinaesthetic vibrotactile haptic perception' along with an actuated step magnitude contact profiloscopy in augmented reality-based learning platforms and professional training can be implemented by using an extremely calculated and well-coordinated image telemetry including remote data mining and control technique. A real-time, computer-aided (PLC-SCADA) field calibration based algorithm must be designed for the purpose. But most importantly, in order to actually realise, as well as to 'interact' with some 3D holographic models displayed over a remote screen using remote laser image telemetry and control, all spatio-physical parameters like cardinal alignment, gyroscopic compensation, as well as surface profile and thermal compositions, must be implemented using zero-order type 1 actuators (or transducers) because they provide zero hystereses, zero backlashes, low deadtime as well as providing a linear, absolutely controllable, intrinsically observable and smooth performance with the least amount of error compensation while ensuring the best ergonomic comfort ever possible for the users.

Keywords: haptic feedback, kinaesthetic vibrotactile 3D design, medical simulation training, piezo diaphragm based actuator

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Jelena R. Pejović, Nina N. Serdar

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This paper presents an analysis of the “Performance-Based” seismic design method, in order to overcome the perceived disadvantages and limitations of the existing seismic design approach based on force, in engineering practice. Bearing in mind, the specificity of the earthquake as a load and the fact that the seismic resistance of the structures solely depends on its behaviour in the nonlinear field, traditional seismic design approach based on force and linear analysis is not adequate. “Performance-Based” seismic design method is based on nonlinear analysis and can be used in everyday engineering practice. This paper presents the application of this method to eight-story high reinforced concrete building with combined structural system (reinforced concrete frame structural system in one direction and reinforced concrete ductile wall system in other direction). The nonlinear time-history analysis is performed on the spatial model of the structure using program Perform 3D, where the structure is exposed to forty real earthquake records. For considered building, large number of results were obtained. It was concluded that using this method we could, with a high degree of reliability, evaluate structural behavior under earthquake. It is obtained significant differences in the response of structures to various earthquake records. Also analysis showed that frame structural system had not performed well at the effect of earthquake records on soil like sand and gravel, while a ductile wall system had a satisfactory behavior on different types of soils.

Keywords: ductile wall, frame system, nonlinear time-history analysis, performance-based methodology, RC building

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: O. B. Iskender, K. V. Ling, V. Dubanchet, L. Simonini

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This paper presents a Guidance and Control (G&C) strategy to address spacecraft maneuvering problem for future Rendezvous and Docking (RVD) missions. The proposed strategy allows safe and propellant efficient trajectories for space servicing missions including tasks such as approaching, inspecting and capturing. This work provides the validation test results of the G&C laws using a Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) setup with two robotic mockups representing the chaser and the target spacecraft. Through this paper, the challenges of the relative motion control in space are first summarized, and in particular, the constraints imposed by the mission, spacecraft and, onboard processing capabilities. Second, the proposed algorithm is introduced by presenting the formulation of constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) to optimize the fuel consumption and explicitly handle the physical and geometric constraints in the system, e.g. thruster or Line-Of-Sight (LOS) constraints. Additionally, the coupling between translational motion and rotational motion is addressed via dual quaternion based kinematic description and accordingly explained. The resulting convex optimization problem allows real-time implementation capability based on a detailed discussion on the computational time requirements and the obtained results with respect to the onboard computer and future trends of space processors capabilities. Finally, the performance of the algorithm is presented in the scope of a potential future mission and of the available equipment. The results also cover a comparison between the proposed algorithms with Linear–quadratic regulator (LQR) based control law to highlight the clear advantages of the MPC formulation.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, embedded optimization, real-time experiment, rendezvous and docking, space robotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Antonia Hoffmann, Andrea Stübner

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Resource scarcity and rising material prices are forcing companies to rethink their business models. The conventional linear system of economic growth and rising social needs further exacerbates the problem of resource scarcity. Therefore, it is necessary to separate economic growth from resource consumption. This can be achieved through the circular economy (CE), which focuses on sustainable product life cycles. However, companies face challenges in implementing CE into their businesses. Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly affected by these problems, as they have a limited resource base. Collaboration and social interaction between different actors can help to overcome these obstacles. Based on a self-generated sample of 1,023 German small and medium-sized enterprises, we use a questionnaire to investigate the influence of social capital and its three dimensions - structural, relational, and cognitive capital - on the implementation of CE and the mediating effect of dynamic capabilities in explaining these relationships. Using regression analyses and structural equation modeling, we find that social capital is positively associated with CE implementation and dynamic capabilities partially mediate this relationship. Interestingly, our findings suggest that not all social capital dimensions are equally important for CE implementation. We theoretically and empirically explore the network forms of social capital and extend the CE literature by suggesting that dynamic capabilities help organizations leverage social capital to drive the implementation of CE practices. The findings of this study allow us to suggest several implications for managers and institutions. From a practical perspective, our study contributes to building circular production and service capabilities in small and medium-sized enterprises. Various CE activities can transform products and services to contribute to a better and more responsible world.

Keywords: circular economy, dynamic capabilities, SMEs, social capital

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Ade Oyedijo

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This paper reports the findings of a study on the strategic and organizational antecedents and effects of two opposing pay patterns used by some manufacturing companies in Lagos Nigeria with particular reference to the behavioural correlates of the pay strategies considered. The assumed relationship between pay strategies and some organizational correlates such as business and corporate strategies and firm size was considered problematic in view of their likely implications for employee motivation and citizenship behaviour and firm performance. The survey research method was used for the study. Structured, close ended questions were used to collect primary data from the respondents. A multipart Likert scale was used to measure the pay orientations of the respondent firms and the job and organizational involvement of the respondent employees. Utilizing hierarchical linear regression method and "t-test" to analyze the data obtained from 48 manufacturing companies of various sizes and strategies, it was found that the dominant pattern of employee compensation in the sampled manufacturing companies. The study also revealed that the choice of a pay strategy was strongly influenced by organizational size as well as the type of business and corporate level strategies adopted by afirm. Firms pursuing a strategy of related and unrelated diversification are more likely to adopt the algorithmic compensation system than single product firms because of their relatively larger size and scope. However; firms that pursue a competitive advantage through a business level strategy of cost efficiency are more likely to use the experiential, variable pay strategy. The study found that an algorithmic compensation strategy is as effective as experiential compensation strategy in the promotion of organizational citizenship behaviour and motivation of employees.

Keywords: compensation, corporate strategy, business strategy, motivation, citizenship behaviour, algorithmic, experiential, organizational commitment, work environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: F. Longo, G. Granello, G. Tecchio, F. Da Porto

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Unreinforced masonry (URM) infill walls are widely used throughout the world, also in seismic prone regions, as partitions in reinforced concrete building frames. Even if they do not represent structural elements, they can dramatically affect both strength and stiffness of RC structures by acting as a diagonal strut, modifying shear and displacements distribution along the building height, with uncertain consequences on structural safety. In the last decades, many refined models have been developed to describe infill walls effect on frame structural behaviour, but generally restricted to in-plane actions. Only very recently some new approaches were implemented to consider in-plane/out-of-plane interaction of URM infill walls in progressive collapse simulations. In the present work, a particularly promising macro-model was adopted for the progressive collapse analysis of infilled RC frames. The model allows to consider the bi-directional interaction in terms of displacement and strength capacity for URM infills, and to remove the infill contribution when the URM wall is supposed to fail during the analysis process. The model was calibrated on experimental data regarding two different URM panels thickness, modelling with particular care the post-critic softening branch. A frame specimen set representing the most common Italian structures was built considering two main normative approaches: a traditional design philosophy, corresponding to structures erected between 50’s-80’s basically designed to support vertical loads, and a seismic design philosophy, corresponding to current criteria that take into account horizontal actions. Non-Linear Static analyses were carried out on the specimen set and some preliminary evaluations were drawn in terms of different performance exhibited by the RC frame when the contemporary effect of the out-of-plane damage is considered for the URM infill.

Keywords: infill Panels macromodels, in plane-out of plane interaction, RC frames, URM infills

Procedia PDF Downloads 501

Authors: Evan Lowhorn, Rocio Alba-Flores

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Traditional classification Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) attempt to classify an image in its entirety. This becomes problematic when trying to perform classification with a drone’s camera in real-time due to unpredictable backgrounds. Object detectors with bounding boxes can be used to isolate individuals and other items, but the original backgrounds remain within these boxes. These basic detectors have been regularly used to determine what type of object an item is, such as “person” or “dog.” Recent advancement in computer vision, particularly with human imaging, is keypoint detection. Human keypoint detection goes beyond bounding boxes to fully isolate humans and plot points, or Regions of Interest (ROI), on their bodies within an image. ROIs can include shoulders, elbows, knees, heads, etc. These points can then be related to each other and used in deep learning methods such as pose estimation. For drone control based on human motions, poses, or signals using the onboard camera, it is important to have a simple method for pilot identification among multiple individuals while also giving the pilot fine control options for the drone. To achieve this, the OpenPose keypoint detection network was used with body and hand keypoint detection enabled. OpenPose supports the ability to combine multiple keypoint detection methods in real-time with a single network. Body keypoint detection allows simple poses to act as the pilot identifier. The hand keypoint detection with ROIs for each finger can then offer a greater variety of signal options for the pilot once identified. For this work, the individual must raise their non-control arm to be identified as the operator and send commands with the hand on their other arm. The drone ignores all other individuals in the onboard camera feed until the current operator lowers their non-control arm. When another individual wish to operate the drone, they simply raise their arm once the current operator relinquishes control, and then they can begin controlling the drone with their other hand. This is all performed mid-flight with no landing or script editing required. When using a desktop with a discrete NVIDIA GPU, the drone’s 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi connection combined with OpenPose restrictions to only body and hand allows this control method to perform as intended while maintaining the responsiveness required for practical use.

Keywords: computer vision, drone control, keypoint detection, openpose

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: T. P. Yu, J. J. Liu, X. L. Zhu, Y. Yin, W. Q. Wang, J. M. Ouyang, F. Q. Shao

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A strong electromagnetic field with E>1015V/m can be supplied by an intense laser such as ELI and HiPER in the near future. Exposing in such a strong laser field, laser-matter interaction enters into the near quantum electrodynamics (QED) regime and highly non-linear physics may occur during the laser-matter interaction. Recently, the multi-photon Breit-Wheeler (BW) process attracts increasing attention because it is capable to produce abundant positrons and it enhances the positron generation efficiency significantly. Here, we propose an all-optical scheme for bright gamma rays and dense positrons generation by irradiating a 1022 W/cm2 laser pulse onto an Al cone filled with near-critical-density plasmas. Two-dimensional (2D) QED particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations show that, the radiation damping force becomes large enough to compensate for the Lorentz force in the cone, causing radiation-reaction trapping of a dense electron bunch in the laser field. The trapped electrons oscillate in the laser electric field and emits high-energy gamma photons in two ways: (1) nonlinear Compton scattering due to the oscillation of electrons in the laser fields, and (2) Compton backwardscattering resulting from the bunch colliding with the reflected laser by the cone tip. The multi-photon Breit-Wheeler process is thus initiated and abundant electron-positron pairs are generated with a positron density ~1027m-3. The scheme is finally demonstrated by full 3D PIC simulations, which indicate the positron flux is up to 109. This compact gamma ray and positron source may have promising applications in future.

Keywords: BW process, electron-positron pairs, gamma rays emission, ultra-intense laser

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Vivek Kumar Gupta, Kripi Vohra, Monika Gupta

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Pulses have been a vital ingredient of the balanced human diet in India. Lentil (Lens culinaris Medikus or Lens esculenta Moench.) is a common legume known since biblical times. Lentil seeds, with or without hulls, are cooked as dhal and this has been the main dish for millennia in the South Asian region. Oxidative stress can damage lipids, proteins, enzymes, carbohydrates and DNA in cells and tissues, resulting in membrane damage, fragmentation or random cross linking of molecules like DNA, enzymes and structural proteins and even lead to cell death induced by DNA fragmentation and lipid peroxidation. These consequences of oxidative stress construct the molecular basis in the development of cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and autoimmune. The aim of the present work is to assess the antioxidant potential of the peteroleum ether, acetone, methanol and water extract of the Lens esculenta seeds. In vitro antioxidant assessment of the extracts was carried out using 1,1-diphenyl-2-picryl hydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging activity, hydroxyl radical scavenging activity, reducing power assay. The quantitative estimation of total phenolic content, total flavonoid content in extracts and in plant material, total saponin content, total alkaloid content, crude fibre content, total volatile content, fat content and mucilage content in drug material was also carried out. Though all the extracts exhibited dose dependent reducing power activity the acetone extract was found to possess significant hydrogen donating ability in DPPH (45.83%-93.13%) and hydroxyl radical scavenging system (28.7%-46.41%) than the peteroleum ether, methanol and water extracts. Total phenolic content in the acetone and methanol extract was found to be 608 and 188 mg gallic acid equivalent of phenol/g of sample respectively. Total flavonoid content of acetone and methanol extract was found to be 128 and 30.6 mg quercetin equivalent/g of sample respectively. It is evident that acetone extract of Lentil seeds possess high levels of polyphenolics and flavonoids that could be utilized as antioxidants and neutraceuticals.

Keywords: antioxidant, flavanoids, Lens esculenta, polyphenols

Procedia PDF Downloads 462