Search results for: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Authors: Ahmad Tijani Surajudeen, Muhammad Zahiri Awang Mat, Aliy Abdulwahid Adebisi

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With arrival of Islam in the South-Western Nigeria in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, various masājid established in different parts of the area played vital roles towards the betterment and unity of the Muslims. However, despite the fact that the masājid in the South-Western part of Nigeria contributed immensely to the spiritual and educational enhancement of the Muslims, it has not fully captured the holistic educational roles as a unique model used by the Prophet (S.A.W). Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate and broaden the roles of masjid towards its compartmentalized and holistic contributions among the Muslims in the south-western Nigeria. The findings from the paper have identified five holistic roles of masjid, namely, spiritual, intellectual, physical, social and emotional contributions which have been exemplified in the prophetic model of masjid. The paper has argued that the five factors must be unreservedly unified towards the betterment of the Muslims and enhancement of Islamic education and Arabic Language in the South-Western Nigeria. However, the challenges of masjid management in the South-Western Nigeria are the main hindrance in achieving the holistic roles of masjid. It is thereby suggested that, the management of masjid should take the identified prophetic model of masjid into account in order to positively improve the affairs of Muslims as well as promoting the teaching and learning of Islamic education and Arabic language among the Muslims in the South-Western Nigeria.

Keywords: worship, Islamic education, Arabic language, prophetic holistic model

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Authors: Jean Marie Ntaganda, Froduald Minani, Wellars Banzi, Lydie Mpinganzima, Japhet Niyobuhungiro, Jean Bosco Gahutu, Vincent Dusabejambo, Immaculate Kambutse

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In this paper, we present a nonlinear dynamic model for the interactive mechanism of the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The model is designed and analyzed for human during physical exercises. In order to verify the adequacy of the designed model, data collected in Rwanda are used for validation. We have simulated the impact of heart rate and alveolar ventilation as controls of cardiovascular and respiratory system respectively to steady state response of the main cardiovascular hemodynamic quantities i.e., systemic arterial and venous blood pressures, arterial oxygen partial pressure and arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, to the stabilised values of controls. We used data collected in Rwanda for both male and female during physical activities. We obtained a good agreement with physiological data in the literature. The model may represent an important tool to improve the understanding of exercise physiology.

Keywords: exercise, cardiovascular/respiratory, hemodynamic quantities, numerical simulation, physical activity, sportsmen in Rwanda, system

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Authors: M. Khalid, G. N. Singh

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In this paper, we have considered the problems of estimation for the population mean on current (second) occasion in two-occasion successive sampling under random non-response situations. Some modified exponential type estimators have been proposed and their properties are studied under the assumptions that the number of sampling unit follows a discrete distribution due to random non-response situations. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with linear combinations of two estimators, (a) sample mean estimator for fresh sample and (b) ratio estimator for matched sample under the complete response situations. Results are demonstrated through empirical studies which present the effectiveness of the proposed estimators. Suitable recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners.

Keywords: modified exponential estimator, successive sampling, random non-response, auxiliary variable, bias, mean square error

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Authors: Mesfin Nigussie

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The objectives of the study were to identify factors affecting rural households’ willingness to install biogas plant and amount willingness to pay in order to examine determinants of effective demand for biogas technology. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents for the study. The binary probit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting rural households’ decision to install biogas technology. The probit model result revealed that household size, total household income, access to extension services related to biogas, access to credit service, proximity to water sources, perception of households about the quality of biogas, perception index about attributes of biogas, perception of households about installation cost of biogas and availability of energy source were statistically significant in determining household’s decision to install biogas. Tobit model was employed to examine determinants of rural household’s amount of willingness to pay. Based on the model result, age of the household head, total annual income of the household, access to extension service and availability of other energy source were significant variables that influence willingness to pay. Providing due considerations for extension services, availability of credit or subsidy, improving the quality of biogas technology design and minimizing cost of installation by using locally available materials are the main suggestions of this research that help to create effective demand for biogas technology.

Keywords: biogas technology, effective demand, probit model, tobit model, willingnes to pay

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Ostad Ali Naghi Kashani, Esfanji Elia

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Nowadays, the amounts of companies which tend to have an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) application are increasing particularly in developing countries like Iran. ERP projects are expensive, time consuming, and complex, in addition the failure rate is high among these projects. It is important to know whether these projects could meet their goals or not. Furthermore, the area which should be improved should be identified. In this paper we made a framework to evaluate ERP projects success implementation. First, based on literature review we made a framework based on BSC model, financial, customer, processes, learning and knowledge, because of the importance of change management it was added to model. Then an organization was divided in three layers. We choose corporate, managerial, and operational levels. Then to find criteria to assess each aspect, we use Delphi method in two rounds. And for the second round we made a questionnaire and did some statistical tasks on them. Based on the statistical results some of them are accepted and others are rejected.

Keywords: ERP, BSC, ERP project evaluation, IT projects

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Authors: E. Accomando, L. Delle Rose, S. Moretti, E. Olaiya, C. Shepherd-Themistocleous

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Heavy sterile neutrinos are almost ubiquitous in the class of Beyond Standard Model scenarios aimed at addressing the puzzle that emerged from the discovery of neutrino flavour oscillations, hence the need to explain their masses. In particular, they are necessary in a U(1)’ enlarged Standard Model (SM). We show that these heavy neutrinos can be rather long-lived producing distinctive displaced vertices and tracks. Indeed, depending on the actual decay length, they can decay inside a Large Hadron Collider (LHC) detector far from the main interaction point and can be identified in the inner tracking system or the muon chambers, emulated here through the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector parameters. Among the possible production modes of such heavy neutrino, we focus on their pair production mechanism in the SM Higgs decay, eventually yielding displaced lepton signatures following the heavy neutrino decays into weak gauge bosons. By employing well-established triggers available for the CMS detector and using the data collected by the end of the LHC Run 2, these signatures would prove to be accessible with negligibly small background. Finally, we highlight the importance that the exploitation of new triggers, specifically, displaced tri-lepton ones, could have for this displaced vertex search.

Keywords: beyond the standard model, displaced vertex, Higgs physics, neutrino physics

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Authors: Maassoumeh Bemani Naeini

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Studies on interlanguage have long been engaged in describing the phenomenon of variation in SLA. Pursuing the same goal and particularly addressing the role of linguistic features, this study describes the use of Persian morphology in the interlanguage of two adult English-speaking learners of Persian L2. Taking the general approach of a combination of contrastive analysis, error analysis and interlanguage analysis, this study focuses on the identification and prediction of some possible instances of transfer from English L1 to Persian L2 across six elicitation tasks aiming to investigate whether any of contextual features may variably influence the learners’ order of morpheme accuracy in the areas of copula, possessives, articles, demonstratives, plural form, personal pronouns, and genitive cases.  Results describe the existence of task variation in the interlanguage system of Persian L2 learners.

Keywords: English L1, Interlanguage Analysis, Persian L2, SLA variation

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Authors: Aly Elshafei, Daniela Romano

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With the development of autonomous vehicles, a human-machine interaction (HMI) system is needed for a safe transition of control when a takeover request (TOR) is required. An important part of the HMI system is the ability to monitor the level of situational awareness (SA) of any driver in real-time, in different scenarios, and without any pre-calibration. Presenting state-of-the-art machine learning models used to measure SA is the purpose of this systematic review. Investigating the limitations of each type of sensor, the gaps, and the most suited sensor and computational model that can be used in driving applications. To the author’s best knowledge this is the first literature review identifying online and offline classification methods used to measure SA, explaining which measurements are subject or session-specific, and how many classifications can be done with each classification model. This information can be very useful for researchers measuring SA to identify the most suited model to measure SA for different applications.

Keywords: situational awareness, autonomous driving, gaze metrics, EEG, ECG

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Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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Authors: Hassam Ahmed, Yuanzhi Liu, Yassine Selami, Wei Tao, Hui Zhao

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The purpose of this research is to develop a real time axial force measurement system for a smart bearing through the use of strain-gauges, whereby the data acquisition is performed by an Arduino microcontroller due to its easy manipulation and low-cost. The measured signal is acquired and then discretized using a Wheatstone Bridge and an Analog-Digital Converter (ADC) respectively. For bearing monitoring, a real time monitoring system based on Internet of things (IoT) and Bluetooth were developed. Experimental tests were performed on a bearing within a force range up to 600 kN. The experimental results show that there is a proportional linear relationship between the applied force and the output voltage, and the error R squared is within 0.9878 based on the regression analysis.

Keywords: bearing, force measurement, IoT, strain gauge

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Authors: Chih-Chun Lai, Jun-Yu Wang

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The keyboard is the most important equipment for computer tasks. However, improper design of keyboard would cause some symptoms like ulnar and/or radial deviations. The research goal of this study was to investigate the optimal size(s) of keycaps to increase efficiency. As shown in the questionnaire pre-study with 49 participants aged from 20 to 44, the most commonly used keyboards were 101-key standard keyboards. Most of the keycap sizes (W × L) were 1.3 × 1.5 cm and 1.5 × 1.5 cm. The fingertip breadths of most participants were 1.2 cm. Therefore, in the main study with 18 participants, a standard keyboard with each set of the 3-sized (1.2 × 1.4 cm, 1.3 × 1.5 cm, and 1.5 × 1.5 cm) keycaps was used to investigate their typing efficiency, respectively. The results revealed that the differences between the operating times for using 1.3 × 1.5 cm and 1.2 × 1.4 cm keycaps were insignificant while operating times for using 1.5 × 1.5 cm keycaps were significantly longer than for using 1.2 × 1.4 cm or 1.3 × 1.5 cm, respectively. As for the typing error rate, there was no significant difference.

Keywords: keyboard, keycap size, typing efficiency, computer tasks

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Authors: Omer Zvi Shaked

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Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a widespread social problem. Since the 1970's, and due to political changes resulting from the feminist movement, western society has been changing its attitude towards the phenomenon and has been taking an active approach to reduce its magnitude. Enterprises in the form of legislation, awareness and prevention campaigns, women's shelters, and community intervention programs became more prevalent as years progressed. Although many initiatives were found to be productive, the effectiveness of one, however, remained questionable throughout the years: intervention programs for men's intimate violence. Surveys outline two main intervention models for men's intimate violence. The first is the Duluth model, which argued that men are socialized to be dominant - while women are socialized to be subordinate - and men are therefore required by social imperative to enforce, physically if necessary, their dominance. The Duluth model became the chief authorized intervention program, and some states in the US even regulated it as the standard criminal justice program for men's intimate violence. However, meta-analysis findings demonstrated that based on a partner's reports, Duluth treatment completers have 44% recidivism rate, and between 40% and 85% dropout range. The second model is the Cognitive-Behavioral Model (CBT), which is a highly accepted intervention worldwide. The model argues that cognitive misrepresentations of intimate situations precede violent behaviors frequently when anger predisposition exists. Since anger dysregulation mediates between one's cognitive schemes and violent response, anger regulation became the chief purpose of the intervention. Yet, a meta-analysis found only a 56% risk reduction for CBT interventions. It is, therefore, crucial to understand the background behind the domination of both the Duluth model and CBT interventions. This presentation will discuss the ways in which theoretical conceptualizations of men's intimate violence, as well as ideologies, had contributed to the above-mentioned interventions' wide acceptance, despite known lack of scientific and evidential support. First, the presentation will review the prominent interventions for male intimate violence, the Duluth model, and CBT. Second, the presentation will review the prominent theoretical models explaining men's intimate violence: The Patriarchal model, the Abusive Personality model, and the Post-Traumatic Stress model. Third, the presentation will discuss the interrelation between theory and practice, and the nature of affinity between research and practice regarding men's intimate violence. Finally, the presentation will set new directions for further research, aiming to improve intervention's efficiency with men's intimate violence and advance social work practice in the field.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, theory and practice relationship, Duluth, CBT, abusive personality, post-traumatic stress

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Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghajari, Alireza Aghasi

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The first challenge which the current research faced has been the identification or determination of the level of knowledge in Isfahan public transportation corporation, and the second challenge has been the recognition and choice of a proper approach for the instructional system design. Responding these two challenges will present an appropriate model of instructional system design. In order to respond the first challenge or question, Nonaka and Takeuchi KM model has been utilized due to its universality among the 26 models proposed so far. The statistical population of this research included 2200 people, among which 200 persons were chosen as the sample of the research by the use of Morgan’s method. The data gathering has been carried out by the means of a questionnaire based on Nonaka and Takeuchi KM model, analysis of which has been done by SPSS program. The output of this questionnaire, yielding the point of 1.96 (out of 5 points), revealed that the general condition of Isfahan public transportation corporation is weak concerning its being knowledge-centered. After placing this output on Jonassen’s continuum, it was revealed that the appropriate approach for instructional system design is the system (or behavioral) approach. Accordingly, different steps of the general model of ADDIE, which covers all of the ISO10015 standards, were adopted in the act of designing. Such process in Isfahan public transportation corporation was designed and divided into three main steps, including: instructional designing and planning, instructional course planning, determination of the evaluation and the effectiveness of the instructional courses.

Keywords: instructional system design, system approach, knowledge management, employees

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Authors: M. Palizvan, M. T. Abadi, M. H. Sadr

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Due to variations in damage mechanisms in the microscale, the behavior of fiber-reinforced composites is nonlinear and difficult to model. To make use of computational advantages, homogenization method is applied to the micro-scale model in order to minimize the cost at the expense of detail of local microscale phenomena. In this paper, the effective stiffness is calculated using the homogenization of nonlinear behavior of a composite representative volume element (RVE) containing fiber-matrix debonding. The damage modes for the RVE are considered by using cohesive elements and contacts for the cohesive behavior of the interface between fiber and matrix. To predict more realistic responses of composite materials, different random distributions of fibers are proposed besides square and hexagonal arrays. It was shown that in some cases, there is quite different damage behavior in different fiber distributions. A comprehensive comparison has been made between different graphs.

Keywords: homogenization, cohesive zone model, fiber-matrix debonding, RVE

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Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami

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In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.

Keywords: function tuner method (FTM), fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm (GA)

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Authors: Laaziz El Hassan

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The Service Network Design Problem (SNDP) is a tactical issue in freight transportation firms. The existing formulations of the problem for intermodal rail-road transportation were not always adapted to the intermodality in terms of full asset utilization and modal shift reinforcement. The objective of the article is to propose a model having a more compliant formulation with intermodality, including constraints highlighting the imperatives of asset management, reinforcing modal shift from road to rail and reducing, by the way, road mode CO2 emissions. The model is a fixed charged, path based integer nonlinear program. Its objective is to minimize services total cost while ensuring full assets utilization to satisfy freight demand forecast. The model's main feature is that it gives as output both the train sizes and the services frequencies for a planning period. We solved the program using a commercial solver and discussed the numerical results.

Keywords: intermodal transport network, service network design, model, nonlinear integer program, path-based, service frequencies, modal shift

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Authors: Reena Murali, David Peter S.

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The small interfering RNA (siRNA) alters the regulatory role of mRNA during gene expression by translational inhibition. Recent studies shows that up regulation of mRNA cause serious diseases like Cancer. So designing effective siRNA with good knockdown effects play an important role in gene silencing. Various siRNA design tools had been developed earlier. In this work, we are trying to analyze the existing good scoring second generation siRNA predicting tools and to optimize the efficiency of siRNA prediction by designing a computational model using Artificial Neural Network and whole stacking energy (ΔG), which may help in gene silencing and drug design in cancer therapy. Our model is trained and tested against a large data set of siRNA sequences. Validation of our results is done by finding correlation coefficient of experimental versus observed inhibition efficacy of siRNA. We achieved a correlation coefficient of 0.727 in our previous computational model and we could improve the correlation coefficient up to 0.753 when the threshold of whole tacking energy is greater than or equal to -32.5 kcal/mol.

Keywords: artificial neural network, double stranded RNA, RNA interference, short interfering RNA

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Authors: Espen Oland

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This paper presents a solution to the problem of autonomous rendezvous for spacecraft equipped with one main thruster for translational control and three reaction wheels for rotational control. With fewer actuators than degrees of freedom, this constitutes an underactuated control problem, requiring a coupling between the translational and rotational dynamics to facilitate control. This paper shows how to obtain this coupling, and applies the results to autonomous rendezvous between a follower spacecraft and a leader spacecraft. Additionally, since the thrust is constrained between zero and an upper bound, no negative forces can be generated to slow down the speed of the spacecraft. A combined speed and attitude control logic is therefore created that can be divided into three main phases: 1) The orbital velocity vector is pointed towards the desired position and the thrust is used to obtain the desired speed, 2) during the coasting phase, the attitude is changed to facilitate deceleration using the main thruster, 3) the speed is decreased as the spacecraft reaches its desired position. The results are validated through simulations, showing the capabilities of the proposed approach.

Keywords: attitude control, spacecraft rendezvous, translational control, underactuated rigid body

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: Marjan Javanmard

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The rheological properties of dairy products critically depend on the underlying organisation of proteins at multiple length scales. When heated and acidified, milk proteins form particle gel that is viscoelastic, solvent rich, ‘soft’ material. In this work recent developments on the rheology of soft particles suspensions were used to interpret and potentially define the properties of dairy gel structures. It is discovered that at volume fractions below random close packing (RCP), the Maron-Pierce-Quemada (MPQ) model accurately predicts the viscosity of the dairy gel suspensions without fitting parameters; the MPQ model has been shown previously to provide reasonable predictions of the viscosity of hard sphere suspensions from the volume fraction, solvent viscosity and RCP. This surprising finding demonstrates that up to RCP, the dairy gel system behaves as a hard sphere suspension and that the structural aggregates behave as discrete particulates akin to what is observed for microgel suspensions. At effective phase volumes well above RCP, the system is a soft solid. In this region, it is discovered that the storage modulus of the sheared AMG scales with the storage modulus of the set gel. The storage modulus in this regime is reasonably well described as a function of effective phase volume by the Evans and Lips model. Findings of this work has potential to aid in rational design and control of dairy food structure-properties.

Keywords: dairy suspensions, rheology-structure, Maron-Pierce-Quemada Model, Evans and Lips Model

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Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

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While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

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Authors: S. Chowdhury, A. Corlett

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Large tsunamis strike the British Columbia coast every few hundred years. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends along the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to Northern California is one of the most seismically active regions in Canada. Significant earthquakes have occurred in this region, including the 1700 Cascade Earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 9.2. Based on geological records, experts have predicted a 'great earthquake' of a similar magnitude within this region may happen any time. This earthquake is expected to generate a large tsunami that could impact the coastal communities on Vancouver Island. Since many of these communities are in remote locations, they are more likely to be vulnerable, as the post-earthquake relief efforts would be impacted by the damage to critical road infrastructures. To assess the coastal vulnerability within these communities, a hydrodynamic model has been developed using MIKE-21 software. We have considered a 500 year probabilistic earthquake design criteria including the subsidence in this model. The bathymetry information was collected from Canadian Hydrographic Services (CHS), and National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA). The arial survey was conducted using a Cessna-172 aircraft for the communities, and then the information was converted to generate a topographic digital elevation map. Both survey information was incorporated into the model, and the domain size of the model was about 1000km x 1300km. This model was calibrated with the tsunami occurred off the west coast of Moresby Island on October 28, 2012. The water levels from the model were compared with two tide gauge stations close to the Vancouver Island and the output from the model indicates the satisfactory result. For this study, the design water level was considered as High Water Level plus the Sea Level Rise for 2100 year. The hourly wind speeds from eight directions were collected from different wind stations and used a 200-year return period wind speed in the model for storm events. The regional model was set for 12 hrs simulation period, which takes more than 16 hrs to complete one simulation using double Xeon-E7 CPU computer plus a K-80 GPU. The boundary information for the local model was generated from the regional model. The local model was developed using a high resolution mesh to estimate the coastal flooding for the communities. It was observed from this study that many communities will be effected by the Cascadia tsunami and the inundation maps were developed for the communities. The infrastructures inside the coastal inundation area were identified. Coastal vulnerability planning and resilient design solutions will be implemented to significantly reduce the risk.

Keywords: tsunami, coastal flooding, coastal vulnerable, earthquake, Vancouver, wave propagation

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Authors: Youhang Zhou, Weimin Zeng, Qi Xie

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Abstract: In order to solve the wear recognition problem of the machine tool guide surface, a new machine tool guide surface recognition method based on the radar-graph barycentre feature is presented in this paper. Firstly, the gray mean value, skewness, projection variance, flat degrees and kurtosis features of the guide surface image data are defined as primary characteristics. Secondly, data Visualization technology based on radar graph is used. The visual barycentre graphical feature is demonstrated based on the radar plot of multi-dimensional data. Thirdly, a classifier based on the support vector machine technology is used, the radar-graph barycentre feature and wear original feature are put into the classifier separately for classification and comparative analysis of classification and experiment results. The calculation and experimental results show that the method based on the radar-graph barycentre feature can detect the guide surface effectively.

Keywords: guide surface, wear defects, feature extraction, data visualization

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Authors: Bet El Silisna Lagarense, Agustinus Walansendow

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Manado Waterfront Development (MWD) occurs along the coastline of the city to meet the communities’ various needs and interests. Manado waterfront, with its various kinds of tourist attractions, is being developed to strengthen opportunities for both tourism and other businesses. There are many buildings that are used for trade and business purposes. The spatial distributions of tourism, commercial and residential land uses overlap. Field research at the study site consisted desktop scan, questionnaire-based survey, observation and in-depth interview with key informants and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) identified how MWD was initially planned and designed in the whole process of decision making in terms of resource and environmental management particularly for the waterfront tourism development in the long run. The study developed a clustered-based model for waterfront urban tourism in Manado through evaluation of spatial distribution of tourism uses along the waterfront.

Keywords: clustered-based model, Manado, urban tourism, waterfront

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Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

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Authors: Mohammed Qasim, Kyoung-Dae Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the design of the super-ellipsoidal potential function (SEPF), that can be used for autonomous collision avoidance of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in a 3-dimensional space. In the design of SEPF, we have the full control over the shape and size of the potential function. In particular, we can adjust the length, width, height, and the amount of flattening at the tips of the potential function so that the collision avoidance motion vector generated from the potential function can be adjusted accordingly. Based on the idea of the SEPF, we also propose an approach for the local autonomy of a UAV for its collision avoidance when the UAV is teleoperated by a human operator. In our proposed approach, a teleoperated UAV can not only avoid collision autonomously with other surrounding objects but also track the operator’s control input as closely as possible. As a result, an operator can always be in control of the UAV for his/her high-level guidance and navigation task without worrying too much about the UAVs collision avoidance while it is being teleoperated. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a human-in-the-loop simulation of quadrotor UAV teleoperation using virtual robot experimentation platform (v-rep) and Matlab programs.

Keywords: artificial potential function, autonomous collision avoidance, teleoperation, quadrotor

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Authors: Zhi-Jun Lu, Qi Lu, Meng Wu, Qian Xiang, Jun Gu

Abstract:

The analysis of perforated steel members is a 3D problem in nature, therefore the traditional analytical expressions for the ultimate load of thin-walled steel sections cannot be used for the perforated steel member design. In this study, finite element method (FEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used to simulate the process of stub column tests based on specific codes. Results show that compared with those of the FEM model, the ultimate load predictions obtained from ANN technique were much closer to those obtained from the physical experiments. The ANN model for the solving the hard problem of complex steel perforated sections is very promising.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), finite element method (FEM), perforated sections, thin-walled Steel, ultimate load

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: mixed-initiative planning and control, operator control interfaces for rescue robotics, situation awareness, urban search, rescue robotics

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Authors: Juan C. Domínguez, Belén Del Saz-Orozco, María V. Alonso, Mercedes Oliet, Francisco Rodríguez

Abstract:

In the present study, the kinetics of thermal degradation of a phenolic and lignin reinforced phenolic foams, and the lignin used as reinforcement were studied and the activation energies of their degradation processes were obtained by a DAEM model. The average values for five heating rates of the mean activation energies obtained were: 99.1, 128.2, and 144.0 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, 109.5, 113.3, and 153.0 kJ.mol-1 for the lignin reinforcement, and 82.1, 106.9, and 124.4 kJ. mol-1 for the lignin reinforced phenolic foam. The standard deviation ranges calculated for each sample were 1.27-8.85, 2.22-12.82, and 3.17-8.11 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, lignin and the reinforced foam, respectively. The DAEM model showed low mean square errors (< 1x10-5), proving that is a suitable model to study the kinetics of thermal degradation of the foams and the reinforcement.

Keywords: kinetics, lignin, phenolic foam, thermal degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 490