Search results for: statistical distribution

Authors: Awais Ahmed, Javed Iqbal

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Pakistan has been for many years facing extreme challenges in energy deficit due to the shortage of power generation compared to increasing demand. A part of this energy deficit is also contributed by the power lost in transmission and distribution network. Unfortunately, distribution companies are not equipped with modern technologies and methods to identify and eliminate these losses. According to estimate, total energy lost in early 2000 was between 20 to 26 percent. To address this issue the present research study was designed with the objectives of developing a standalone GIS application for distribution companies having the capability of loss calculation as well as identification of overloaded transformers. For this purpose, Hilal Road feeder in Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) was selected as study area. An extensive GPS survey was conducted to identify each consumer, linking it to the secondary pole of the transformer, geo-referencing equipment and documenting conductor sizes. To identify overloaded transformer, accumulative kWH reading of consumer on transformer was compared with threshold kWH. Technical losses of 11kV and 220V lines were calculated using the data from substation and resistance of the network calculated from the geo-database. To automate the process a standalone GIS application was developed using ArcObjects with engineering analysis capabilities. The application uses GIS database developed for 11kV and 220V lines to display and query spatial data and present results in the form of graphs. The result shows that about 14% of the technical loss on both high tension (HT) and low tension (LT) network while about 4 out of 15 general duty transformers were found overloaded. The study shows that GIS can be a very effective tool for distribution companies in management and planning of their distribution network.

Keywords: geographical information system, GIS, power distribution, distribution transformers, technical losses, GPS, SDSS, spatial decision support system

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Authors: Kavitha Madhu, Karthik K. Srinivasan, R. Sivanandan

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Indian traffic can be considered as mixed and heterogeneous due to the presence of various types of vehicles that operate with weak lane discipline. Consequently, vehicles can position themselves anywhere in the traffic stream depending on availability of gaps. The choice of lateral positioning is an important component in representing and characterizing mixed traffic. The field data provides evidence that the trajectory of vehicles in Indian urban roads have significantly varying longitudinal and lateral components. Further, the notion of headway which is widely used for homogeneous traffic simulation is not well defined in conditions lacking lane discipline. From field data it is clear that following is not strict as in homogeneous and lane disciplined conditions and neighbouring vehicles ahead of a given vehicle and those adjacent to it could also influence the subject vehicles choice of position, speed and acceleration. Given these empirical features, the suitability of using headway distributions to characterize mixed traffic in Indian cities is questionable, and needs to be modified appropriately. To address these issues, this paper attempts to analyze the time gap distribution between consecutive vehicles (in a time-sense) crossing a section of roadway. More specifically, to characterize the complex interactions noted above, the influence of composition, manoeuvre types, and lateral placement characteristics on time gap distribution is quantified in this paper. The developed model is used for evaluating various performance measures such as link speed, midblock delay and intersection delay which further helps to characterise the vehicular fuel consumption and emission on urban roads of India. Identifying and analyzing exact interactions between various classes of vehicles in the traffic stream is essential for increasing the accuracy and realism of microscopic traffic flow modelling. In this regard, this study aims to develop and analyze time gap distribution models and quantify it by lead lag pair, manoeuvre type and lateral position characteristics in heterogeneous non-lane based traffic. Once the modelling scheme is developed, this can be used for estimating the vehicle kilometres travelled for the entire traffic system which helps to determine the vehicular fuel consumption and emission. The approach to this objective involves: data collection, statistical modelling and parameter estimation, simulation using calibrated time-gap distribution and its validation, empirical analysis of simulation result and associated traffic flow parameters, and application to analyze illustrative traffic policies. In particular, video graphic methods are used for data extraction from urban mid-block sections in Chennai, where the data comprises of vehicle type, vehicle position (both longitudinal and lateral), speed and time gap. Statistical tests are carried out to compare the simulated data with the actual data and the model performance is evaluated. The effect of integration of above mentioned factors in vehicle generation is studied by comparing the performance measures like density, speed, flow, capacity, area occupancy etc under various traffic conditions and policies. The implications of the quantified distributions and simulation model for estimating the PCU (Passenger Car Units), capacity and level of service of the system are also discussed.

Keywords: lateral movement, mixed traffic condition, simulation modeling, vehicle following models

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Authors: Dingding Chen, Kazuo Arakawa, Masakazu Uchino, Changheng Xu

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Vacuum assisted resin transfer moulding (VARTM) is a promising manufacture process for making large and complex fiber reinforced composite structures. However, the complexity of the flow of the resin in the infusion stage usually leads to nonuniform property distribution of the produced composite part. In order to control the flow of the resin, the situation of flow should be mastered. For the safety of the usage of the produced composite in practice, the understanding of the property distribution is essential. In this paper, we did some trials on monitoring the resin infusion stage and evaluation for the fiber volume fraction distribution of the VARTM produced composite using the digital image correlation methods. The results show that 3D-DIC is valid on monitoring the resin infusion stage and it is possible to use 2D-DIC to estimate the distribution of the fiber volume fraction on a FRP plate.

Keywords: digital image correlation, VARTM, FRP, fiber volume fraction

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Authors: Maryam Kakavand, Samira Entezari, Sara Khoshjamalfekri, Raghad Mimar

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The objective of this study is 1) to compare elite female and beginner taekwondo players in terms of plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure, and right and left longitudinal arches, and 2) to compare preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite players. To the best of authors’ knowledge, as of yet, there is no information available about the plantar pressure distribution and arch index among taekwondo players. Material and Methods: An analytical-comparative research method is applied. Therefore seven elite athletes and eight novice athletes were selected. The emed-C50 platform was used to assess plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure of different areas, and planter longitudinal arch in a second step protocol. Independent t-test and dependent t-test were used at a level of 0.05 to compare the elites and beginners' right and left feet, and preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite athletes, respectively. Results: In comparing the right and left limbs of elite and beginner groups, findings indicate that there is only a significant difference in the mean pressure of the first metatarsal of the right foot. Findings also showed a significant difference in the contact area of the toes 3, 4, 5 regions between elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups’ right and left limbs and elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs in terms of pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, and arch index. Conclusion: It seems that taekwondo exercises have affected pressure distribution patterns among advanced players causing some differences in their planter pressure distribution pattern when compared to that of beginners. Therefore, taekwondo exercises may be a factor contributing to asymmetry performance in preferred and non-preferred limbs.

Keywords: planter pressure, arch index, taekwondo, elite

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Authors: Srinivasa Rao Gadde

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In this article, we considered a group acceptance sampling plans for exponentiated half logistic distribution when the life-test is truncated at a pre-specified time. It is assumed that the index parameter of the exponentiated half logistic distribution is known. The design parameters such as the number of groups and the acceptance number are obtained by satisfying the producer’s and consumer’s risks at the specified quality levels in terms of medians and 10th percentiles under the assumption that the termination time and the number of items in each group are pre-fixed. Finally, an example is given to illustration the methodology.

Keywords: group acceptance sampling plan, operating characteristic, consumer and producer’s risks, truncated life-test

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Authors: Anwar Ul Haque, Waqar Asrar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffar S. M. Ali

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Pressure distribution data of the standard airfoils is usually used for the calibration purposes in subsonic wind tunnels. Results of such experiments are quite old and obtained by using the model in the spanwise direction. In this manuscript, pressure distribution over NACA 4412 airfoil model was presented by placing the 3D model in the lateral direction. The model is made of metal with pressure ports distributed longitudinally as well as in the lateral direction. The pressure model was attached to the floor of the tunnel with the help of the base plate to give the specified angle of attack to the model. Before the start of the experiments, the pressure tubes of the respective ports of the 128 ports pressure scanner are checked for leakage, and the losses due to the length of the pipes were also incorporated in the results for the specified pressure range. Growth rate maps of the boundary layer thickness were also plotted. It was found that with the increase in the velocity, the dynamic pressure distribution was also increased for the alpha seep. Plots of pressure distribution so obtained were overlapped with those obtained by using XFLR software, a low fidelity tool. It was found that at moderate and high angles of attack, the distribution of the pressure coefficients obtained from the experiments is high when compared with the XFLR ® results obtained along with the span of the wing. This under-prediction by XFLR ® is more obvious on the windward than on the leeward side.

Keywords: subsonic flow, boundary layer, wind tunnel, pressure testing

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Authors: Mohd Tariq, Shyamal K. Nandi, Indra D. Bhatt

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Paris polyphylla Smith (Family- Liliaceae; English name-Love apple: Local name- Satuwa) is an important folk medicinal herb of the Indian subcontinent, being a source of number of bioactive compounds for drug formulation. The rhizomes are widely used as antihelmintic, antispasmodic, digestive stomachic, expectorant and vermifuge, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, heart and vascular malady, anti-fertility and sedative. Keeping in view of this, the species is being constantly removed from nature for trade and various pharmaceuticals purpose, as a result, the availability of the species in its natural habitat is decreasing. In this context, it would be pertinent to conserve this species and reintroduce them in its natural habitat. Predictive distribution modelling of this species was performed in Western Himalayan Region. One such recent method is Ecological Niche Modelling, also popularly known as Species distribution modelling, which uses computer algorithms to generate predictive maps of species distributions in a geographic space by correlating the point distributional data with a set of environmental raster data. In case of P. polyphylla, and to understand its potential distribution zones and setting up of artificial introductions, or selecting conservation sites, and conservation and management of their native habitat. Among the different districts of Uttarakhand (28°05ˈ-31°25ˈ N and 77°45ˈ-81°45ˈ E) Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Pauri Garhwal and some parts of Bageshwar, 'Maximum Entropy' (Maxent) has predicted wider potential distribution of P. polyphylla Smith. Distribution of P. polyphylla is mainly governed by Precipitation of Driest Quarter and Mean Diurnal Range i.e., 27.08% and 18.99% respectively which indicates that humidity (27%) and average temperature (19°C) might be suitable for better growth of Paris polyphylla.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, Indian Himalayan region, Paris polyphylla, predictive distribution modelling

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Authors: Ahmed Nassim Moulai Khatir

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Fin field effect transistors (FinFETs) deliver superior levels of scalability than the classical structure of MOSFETs by offering the elimination of short channel effects. Modern FinFETs are 3D structures that rise above the planar substrate, but some of these structures have inclined surfaces, which results in trapezoidal cross sections instead of rectangular sections usually used. Fin cross section shape of FinFETs results in some device issues, like potential distribution performance. This work analyzes that impact with three-dimensional numeric simulation of several triple-gate FinFETs with various top and bottom widths of fin. Results of the simulation show that the potential distribution and the electrical field in the fin depend on the sidewall inclination angle.

Keywords: FinFET, cross section shape, SILVACO, trapezoidal FinFETs

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Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

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In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

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Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Mohanad Rezeq, Tarik Aouam, Frederik Gailly

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In times of armed conflicts, various security checkpoints are placed by authorities to control the flow of merchandise into and within areas of conflict. The flow of humanitarian trucks that is added to the regular flow of commercial trucks, together with the complex security procedures, creates congestion and long waiting times at the security checkpoints. This causes distribution costs to increase and shortages of relief aid to the affected people to occur. Our research proposes a decision-support tool to assist planners and policymakers in building efficient plans for the distribution of relief aid, taking into account congestion at security checkpoints. The proposed tool is built around a multi-item humanitarian distribution planning model based on multi-phase design science methodology that has as its objective to minimize distribution and back ordering costs subject to capacity constraints that reflect congestion effects using nonlinear clearing functions. Using the 2014 Gaza War as a case study, we illustrate the application of the proposed tool, model the underlying relief-aid humanitarian supply chain, estimate clearing functions at different security checkpoints, and conduct computational experiments. The decision support tool generated a shipment plan that was compared to two benchmarks in terms of total distribution cost, average lead time and work in progress (WIP) at security checkpoints, and average inventory and backorders at distribution centers. The first benchmark is the shipment plan generated by the fixed capacity model, and the second is the actual shipment plan implemented by the planners during the armed conflict. According to our findings, modeling and optimizing supply chain flows reduce total distribution costs, average truck wait times at security checkpoints, and average backorders when compared to the executed plan and the fixed-capacity model. Finally, scenario analysis concludes that increasing capacity at security checkpoints can lower total operations costs by reducing the average lead time.

Keywords: humanitarian distribution planning, relief-aid distribution, congestion, clearing functions

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Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

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Authors: C. M. Priesnitz, G. Zanandrea, J. P. Fabris, S. L. Russo, M. E. Camargo

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This study aimed to the prospection the physiotherapy area technological production registered with the National Intellectual Property Institute (INPI) in Brazil, for understand the evolution of the technological production in the country over time and visualize the distribution this production request in Brazil. There was an evolution in the technology landscape, where the average annual deposits had an increase of 102%, from 3.14 before the year 2004 to 6,33 after this date. It was found differences in the distribution of the number the deposits requested to each Brazilian region, being that of the 132 request, 68,9% were from the southeast region. The international patent classification evaluated the request deposits, and the more found numbers were A61H and A63B. So even with an improved panorama of technology production, this should still have incentives since it is an important tool for the development of the country.

Keywords: distribution, evolution, patent, physiotherapy, technological prospecting

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Authors: Bhaumik Tyagi, Mandeep Kaur, Kanika Singla

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The advancement of blockchain has facilitated scholars to remodel e-voting systems for future generations. Server-side attacks like SQL injection attacks and DOS attacks are the most common attacks nowadays, where malicious codes are injected into the system through user input fields by illicit users, which leads to data leakage in the worst scenarios. Besides, quantum attacks are also there which manipulate the transactional data. In order to deal with all the above-mentioned attacks, integration of blockchain, convolutional neural network (CNN), and Quantum Key Distribution is done in this very research. The utilization of blockchain technology in e-voting applications is not a novel concept. But privacy and security issues are still there in a public and private blockchains. To solve this, the use of a hybrid blockchain is done in this research. This research proposed cryptographic signatures and blockchain algorithms to validate the origin and integrity of the votes. The convolutional neural network (CNN), a normalized version of the multilayer perceptron, is also applied in the system to analyze visual descriptions upon registration in a direction to enhance the privacy of voters and the e-voting system. Quantum Key Distribution is being implemented in order to secure a blockchain-based e-voting system from quantum attacks using quantum algorithms. Implementation of e-voting blockchain D-app and providing a proposed solution for the privacy of voters in e-voting using Blockchain, CNN, and Quantum Key Distribution is done.

Keywords: hybrid blockchain, secure e-voting system, convolutional neural networks, quantum key distribution, one-time pad

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Authors: Mohamed Noureldin, Jinkoo Kim

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In this study, a genetic algorithm was used to find out the optimum locations of the slit dampers satisfying a target displacement. A seismic retrofit scheme for a building structure was presented using steel plate slit dampers. A cyclic loading test was used to verify the energy dissipation capacity of the slit damper. The seismic retrofit of the model structure using the slit dampers was compared with the retrofit with enlarging shear walls. The capacity spectrum method was used to propose a simple damper distribution scheme proportional to the inter-story drifts. The validity of the simple story-wise damper distribution procedure was verified by comparing the results of the genetic algorithm. It was observed that the proposed simple damper distribution pattern was in a good agreement with the optimum distribution obtained from the genetic algorithm. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2017R1D1A1B03032809).

Keywords: slit dampers, seismic retrofit, genetic algorithm, optimum design

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Authors: Atabak Faramarzpour, Mohsen Mohammadian

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In this article, we introduce the stability of power system voltage and state DG power plants placement and its effect on improving voltage security margin in radial distribution networks. For this purpose, first, important definitions in voltage stability area such as small and big voltage disturbances, instability, and voltage collapse, and voltage security definitions are stated. Then, according to voltage collapse time, voltage stability is classified and each one's characteristics are stated.

Keywords: DG power plants, evaluation, voltage security, radial distribution networks

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Authors: Qais H. Alsafasfeh

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The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model. The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model.

Keywords: load forecast, peak demand, spatial load, electrical distribution

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Authors: Yogesh Shukla

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Many attempts have been made to study temperature distribution problem in human tissues under normal environmental and physiological conditions at constant arterial blood temperature. But very few attempts have been made to investigate temperature distribution in human tissues under different arterial blood temperature. In view of above, a finite element model has been developed to unsteady temperature distribution in dermal region in human body. The model has been developed for one dimension unsteady state case. The variation in parameters like thermal conductivity, blood mass flow and metabolic activity with respect to position and time has been incorporated in the model. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed. The central difference approach has been used in space variable and trapezoidal rule has been employed a long time variable. Numerical results have been obtained to study relationship among temperature and time.

Keywords: rate of metabolism, blood mass flow rate, thermal conductivity, heat generation, finite element method

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Authors: Sania Maghsodloo, Sirus Mohammadi

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Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is expected to take a major share in the light-vehicle market in the coming decades. Transportation electrification has become an important issue in recent decades and the large scale deployment of EVs has yet to be achieved. The smart coordination of EV demand addresses an improvement in the flexibility of power systems and reduces the costs of power system investment. The uncertainty in EV drivers’ behaviour is one of the main problems to solve to obtain an optimal integration of EVs into power systems Charging of EVs will put an extra burden on the distribution grid and in some cases adjustments will need to be made. The stochastic process of the driving pattern is done to make the outcome of the project more realistic. Based on the stochastic data, the optimization of charging plans is made.

Keywords: electric vehicles (PEVs), smart grid, Monticello, distribution system

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Authors: Negar Ghotbeddin, Izadpanah Zeinab, Tooraj Valinassab, Mohammad Azhir

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It is reported on results of a trawls survey in 2011 to assess the amount of biomass and Catch Per Unit of Area (CPUA) and also to determine the distribution pattern of Synodonidae family of demersal fishes (with emphasize on great lizardfish, Saurida tumbil) as one the most important and commercial fish species in the northwest of Persian Gulf. Samples were collected at a total 65 trawl stations selected a stratified random procedure. The study area was stratified to five strata (A to E) covering the depth layers of 10-20, 20-30 and 30-50 m. The catch rates of CPUA and biomass of lizardfishes were estimated to be approximately 316.20 kg/nm2, and 2902.1 tons, respectively. The highest value of biomass of Synodontids was recorded in the east of the study area, Bordkhoon to Dayer (stratum D & E, approximately 1310.6 tonnes) and in depth layer of 30-50 m; and the lowest value was estimated for stratum A (West of Khuzestan Province) and in depth layer of 10-20 m. On the other hand, the highest CPUA was recorded in stratum D and depth layer of 20-30 m; and the lowest value for stratum A and 10-20 m depth. It was concluded that stratum D (namely from Bordkhoon to Dayer) contains the best fishing area from the point of higher density and distribution of Synodontidae in the covering area, and from the point of depth distribution, they are found in depths more than 30 m.

Keywords: Saurida tumbil, CPUA, biomass, distribution, fishing area, Persian gulf

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Authors: Orkide Donma, M. Metin Donma, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Birol Topcu, Feti Tulubas, Murat Aydin, Tuba Gokkus, Ahmet Gurel

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Increasing prevalence of childhood obesity has increased the interest in early and late indicators of gaining weight. Cell blood counts may be indicators of proinflammatory states. The aim was to evaluate associations of hematological parameters, including Hematocrit (HTC), hemoglobin, blood cell counts, and their indices with the degree of obesity in pediatric population. A total of 249; -139 morbidly obese (MO), 82 healthy Normal Weight (NW) and 28 Overweight (OW) children were included into the scope of the study. WHO BMI-for age percentiles were used to form age- and sex-matched groups. Informed consent forms and the Ethics Committee approval were obtained. Anthropometric measurements were performed. Hematological parameters were determined. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS. The degree for statistical significance was p≤0.05. Significant differences (p=0.000) between waist-to-hip ratios and head-to-neck ratios (hnrs) of MO and NW children were detected. A significant difference between hnrs of OW and MO children (p=0.000) was observed. Red cell Distribution Width (RDW) was higher in OW children than NW group (p=0.030). Such finding couldn’t be detected between MO and NW groups. Increased RDW was prominent in OW children. The decrease in Mean Corpuscular Hemoglobin Concentration (MCHC) values in MO children was sharper than the values in OW children (p=0.006 vs p=0.042) compared to those in NW group. Statistically higher HTC levels were observed between MO-NW (p=0.014), but none between OW-NW. Though the cause-effect relationship between obesity and erythrocyte indices still needs further investigation, alterations in RDW, HTC, MCHC during obesity may be of significance in the early life.

Keywords: anthropometry, children, erythrocytes, obesity

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Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

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Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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Authors: Bachir Chemani, Rachid Halfaoui

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The aim of work is to define the distribution density of winding yarn on cylindrical and conical bobbins. It is known that parallel winding gives greater density and more regular distribution, but the unwinding of yarn is much more difficult for following process. The conical spool has an enormous advantage during unwinding and may contain a large amount of yarns, but the density distribution is not regular because of difference in diameters. The variation of specific density over the reel height is explained generally by the sudden change of winding speed due to direction movement variation of yarn. We determined the conditions of uniform winding and developed a calculate model to the change of the specific density of winding wire over entire spool height.

Keywords: textile, cylindrical bobbins, conical bobbins, parallel winding, cross winding

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Authors: Sara Kamalisiahroudi, Jun Huang, Zhe Li, Jianbo Zhang

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Two types of commercial cylindrical lithium ion batteries (Panasonic 3.4 Ah NCR-18650B and Samsung 2.9 Ah INR-18650), were investigated experimentally. The capacities of these samples were individually measured using constant current-constant voltage (CC-CV) method at different ambient temperatures (-10 ℃, 0 ℃, 25 ℃). Their internal resistance was determined by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and pulse discharge methods. The cells with different configurations of parallel connection NCR-NCR, INR-INR and NCR-INR were charged/discharged at the aforementioned ambient temperatures. The results showed that the difference of internal resistance between cells much more evident at low temperatures. Furthermore, the parallel connection of NCR-NCR exhibits the most uniform temperature distribution in cells at -10 ℃, this feature is quite favorable for the safety of the battery pack.

Keywords: batteries in parallel connection, internal resistance, low temperature, temperature difference, current distribution

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Authors: R. Rajabpour, N. Talebbeydokhti, M. H. Ahmadi

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Carefully scheduling the operations of pumps can be resulted to significant energy savings. Schedules can be defined either implicit, in terms of other elements of the network such as tank levels, or explicit by specifying the time during which each pump is on/off. In this study, two new explicit representations based on time-controlled triggers were analyzed, where the maximum number of pump switches was established beforehand, and the schedule may contain fewer switches than the maximum. The optimal operation of pumping stations was determined using a Jumping Particle Swarm Optimization (JPSO) algorithm to achieve the minimum energy cost. The model integrates JPSO optimizer and EPANET hydraulic network solver. The optimal pump operation schedule of VanZyl water distribution system was determined using the proposed model and compared with those from Genetic and Ant Colony algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed model utilizing the JPSP algorithm outperformed the others and is a versatile management model for the operation of real-world water distribution system.

Keywords: JPSO, operation, optimization, water distribution system

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Authors: Shannon Steinmetz, Ellen Gethner

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In this paper, a theoretical foundation is developed for patterned segmentation of audio using the geometry of music and statistical manifold. We demonstrate image content clustering using conic space sonification. The algorithm takes a geodesic curve as a model estimator of the three-parameter Gamma distribution. The random variable is parameterized by musical centricity and centric velocity. Model parameters predict audio segmentation in the form of duration and frame count based on the likelihood of musical geometry transition. We provide an example using a database of randomly selected images, resulting in statistically significant clusters of similar image content.

Keywords: sonification, musical information geometry, image, content extraction, automated quantification, audio segmentation, pattern recognition

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Authors: Wikanda Phaphan

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Mixture generalized gamma distribution is a combination of two distributions: generalized gamma distribution and length biased generalized gamma distribution. These two distributions were presented by Suksaengrakcharoen and Bodhisuwan in 2014. The findings showed that probability density function (pdf) had fairly complexities, so it made problems in estimating parameters. The problem occurred in parameter estimation was that we were unable to calculate estimators in the form of critical expression. Thus, we will use numerical estimation to find the estimators. In this study, we presented a new method of the parameter estimation by using the expectation – maximization algorithm (EM), the conjugate gradient method, and the quasi-Newton method. The data was generated by acceptance-rejection method which is used for estimating α, β, λ and p. λ is the scale parameter, p is the weight parameter, α and β are the shape parameters. We will use Monte Carlo technique to find the estimator's performance. Determining the size of sample equals 10, 30, 100; the simulations were repeated 20 times in each case. We evaluated the effectiveness of the estimators which was introduced by considering values of the mean squared errors and the bias. The findings revealed that the EM-algorithm had proximity to the actual values determined. Also, the maximum likelihood estimators via the conjugate gradient and the quasi-Newton method are less precision than the maximum likelihood estimators via the EM-algorithm.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, quasi-Newton method, EM-algorithm, generalized gamma distribution, length biased generalized gamma distribution, maximum likelihood method

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Authors: Fatih Sulak, Betül A. Özdemir, Beyza Bozdemir

Abstract:

In order to improve symmetric key research, several competitions had been arranged by organizations like National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and International Association for Cryptologic Research (IACR). In recent years, the importance of authenticated encryption has rapidly increased because of the necessity of simultaneously enabling integrity, confidentiality and authenticity. Therefore, at January 2013, IACR announced the Competition for Authenticated Encryption: Security, Applicability, and Robustness (CAESAR Competition) which will select secure and efficient algorithms for authenticated encryption. Cryptographic algorithms are anticipated to behave like random mappings; hence, it is important to apply statistical randomness tests to the outputs of the algorithms. In this work, the statistical randomness tests in the NIST Test Suite and the other recently designed randomness tests are applied to six second round algorithms of the CAESAR Competition. It is observed that AEGIS achieves randomness after 3 rounds, Ascon permutation function achieves randomness after 1 round, Joltik encryption function achieves randomness after 9 rounds, Morus state update function achieves randomness after 3 rounds, Pi-cipher achieves randomness after 1 round, and Tiaoxin achieves randomness after 1 round.

Keywords: authenticated encryption, CAESAR competition, NIST test suite, statistical randomness tests

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Authors: T. Sattarpour, D. Nazarpour

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of simultaneous placement of DGs and smart meters (SMs), on voltage profile improvement in active distribution networks (ADNs). A substantial center of attention has recently been on responsive loads initiated in power system problem studies such as distributed generations (DGs). Existence of responsive loads in active distribution networks (ADNs) would have undeniable effect on sizing and siting of DGs. For this reason, an optimal framework is proposed for sizing and siting of DGs and SMs in ADNs. SMs are taken into consideration for the sake of successful implementing of demand response programs (DRPs) such as direct load control (DLC) with end-side consumers. Looking for voltage profile improvement, the optimization procedure is solved by genetic algorithm (GA) and tested on IEEE 33-bus distribution test system. Different scenarios with variations in the number of DG units, individual or simultaneous placing of DGs and SMs, and adaptive power factor (APF) mode for DGs to support reactive power have been established. The obtained results confirm the significant effect of DRPs and APF mode in determining the optimal size and site of DGs to be connected in ADN resulting to the improvement of voltage profile as well.

Keywords: active distribution network (ADN), distributed generations (DGs), smart meters (SMs), demand response programs (DRPs), adaptive power factor (APF)

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Authors: A. Bayle, F. Plouraboué

Abstract:

Water Distribution Network (WDN) still suffers from a lack of knowledge about fast pressure transient events prediction, although the latter may considerably impact their durability. Accidental or planned operating activities indeed give rise to complex pressure interactions and may drastically modified the local pressure value generating leaks and, in rare cases, pipe’s break. In this context, a numerical predictive analysis is conducted to prevent such event and optimize network management. A couple of Python/FORTRAN 90, home-made software, has been developed using Method Of Characteristic (MOC) solving for water-hammer equations. The solver is validated by direct comparison with theoretical and experimental measurement in simple configurations whilst afterward extended to network analysis. The algorithm's most costly steps are designed for parallel computation. A various set of boundary conditions and energetic losses models are considered for the network simulations. The results are analyzed in both real and frequencies domain and provide crucial information on the pressure distribution behavior within the network.

Keywords: energetic losses models, method of characteristic, numerical predictive analysis, water distribution network, water hammer

Procedia PDF Downloads 201