Search results for: series coupling

Authors: Harish Rajak, Preeti Patel

Abstract:

HDAC inhibitors can reactivate gene expression and inhibit the growth and survival of cancer cells. The 3D-QSAR and Pharmacophore modeling studies were performed to identify important pharmacophoric features and correlate 3D-chemical structure with biological activity. The pharmacophore hypotheses were developed using e-pharmacophore script and phase module. Pharmacophore hypothesis represents the 3D arrangement of molecular features necessary for activity. A series of 55 compounds with well-assigned HDAC inhibitory activity was used for 3D-QSAR model development. Best 3D-QSAR model, which is a five PLS factor model with good statistics and predictive ability, acquired Q2 (0.7293), R2 (0.9811) and standard deviation (0.0952). Molecular docking were performed using Histone Deacetylase protein (PDB ID: 1t69) and prepared series of hydroxamic acid based HDAC inhibitors. Docking study of compound 43 show significant binding interactions Ser 276 and oxygen atom of dioxine cap region, Gly 151 and amino group and Asp 267 with carboxyl group of CONHOH, which are essential for anticancer activity. On docking, most of the compounds exhibited better glide score values between -8 to -10.5. We have established structure activity correlation using docking, energetic based pharmacophore modelling, pharmacophore and atom based 3D QSAR model. The results of these studies were further used for the design and testing of new HDAC analogs.

Keywords: Docking, e-pharmacophore, HDACIs, QSAR, Suberoylanilidehydroxamic acid.

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Seung-Seok Bak, Chang-Mu Jung

Abstract:

An enough amount supply of industrial complexes is an important national policy in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign trade. A development process of the industrial complex can distinguish between the planning stage and the construction stage. The planning stage consists of the process of consulting with many stakeholders on the contents of the development of industrial complex, feasibility study, compliance with the Regional policies, and so on. The industrial complex planning stage, including licensing procedure, usually takes about three years in South Korea. The government determined that the appropriate supply of industrial complexes have been delayed, due to the long licensing period and drafted a law to shorten the license period in 2008. The law was expected to shorten the period of licensing, which was about three years, to six months. This paper attempts to show that the shortening of the licensing period does not positively affect the appropriate supply of industrial complexes. To do this, we used Interrupted Time Series Designs. As a result, it was found that the supply of industrial complexes was influenced more by other factors such as actual industrial complex demand of private sector and macro-level economic variables. In addition, the specific provisions of the law conflict with local policy and cause some problems such as damage to nature and agricultural land, traffic congestion.

Keywords: development of industrial complexes, industrial complexes, interrupted time series designs, simplification of licensing procedures for industrial complexes, time series regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Jun Won Kim

Abstract:

Objective: Theta-phase gamma-amplitude coupling (TGC) was used as a novel evidence-based tool to reflect the dysfunctional cortico-thalamic interaction in patients with schizophrenia. However, to our best knowledge, no studies have reported the diagnostic utility of the TGC in the resting-state electroencephalographic (EEG) of neuroleptic-naive patients with schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. Thus, the purpose of this EEG study was to understand the underlying mechanisms in patients with schizophrenia by comparing the TGC at rest between two groups and to evaluate the diagnostic utility of TGC. Method: The subjects included 90 patients with schizophrenia and 90 healthy controls. All patients were diagnosed with schizophrenia according to the criteria of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) by two independent psychiatrists using semi-structured clinical interviews. Because patients were either drug-naïve (first episode) or had not been taking psychoactive drugs for one month before the study, we could exclude the influence of medications. Five frequency bands were defined for spectral analyses: delta (1–4 Hz), theta (4–8 Hz), slow alpha (8–10 Hz), fast alpha (10–13.5 Hz), beta (13.5–30 Hz), and gamma (30-80 Hz). The spectral power of the EEG data was calculated with fast Fourier Transformation using the 'spectrogram.m' function of the signal processing toolbox in Matlab. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed to compare the TGC results between the groups, which were adjusted using a Bonferroni correction (P < 0.05/19 = 0.0026). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to examine the discriminating ability of the TGC data for schizophrenia diagnosis. Results: The patients with schizophrenia showed a significant increase in the resting-state TGC at all electrodes. The delta, theta, slow alpha, fast alpha, and beta powers showed low accuracies of 62.2%, 58.4%, 56.9%, 60.9%, and 59.0%, respectively, in discriminating the patients with schizophrenia from the healthy controls. The ROC analysis performed on the TGC data generated the most accurate result among the EEG measures, displaying an overall classification accuracy of 92.5%. Conclusion: As TGC includes phase, which contains information about neuronal interactions from the EEG recording, TGC is expected to be useful for understanding the mechanisms the dysfunctional cortico-thalamic interaction in patients with schizophrenia. The resting-state TGC value was increased in the patients with schizophrenia compared to that in the healthy controls and had a higher discriminating ability than the other parameters. These findings may be related to the compensatory hyper-arousal patterns of the dysfunctional default-mode network (DMN) in schizophrenia. Further research exploring the association between TGC and medical or psychiatric conditions that may confound EEG signals will help clarify the potential utility of TGC.

Keywords: quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG), theta-phase gamma-amplitude coupling (TGC), schizophrenia, diagnostic utility

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Azhar Ulhaq, Zubair Yameen, Almas Anjum

Abstract:

Frequency behaviour of self-excited induction generator (SEIG) wind turbines during control mode transition from grid connected to islanded mode is studied in detail. A robust control scheme for frequency regulation based on combined action of STATCOM, energy storage system (ESS) and pitch angle control for wind powered microgrid (MG) is proposed. Suggested STATCOM controller comprises a 3-phase voltage source converter (VSC) that contains insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) based pulse width modulation (PWM) inverters along with a capacitor bank. Energy storage system control consists of current controlled voltage source converter and battery bank. Both of them acting simultaneously after detection of island compensates for reactive and active power demands, thus regulating frequency at point of common coupling (PCC) and also improves load stability. STATCOM integrates at point of common coupling and ESS is connected to microgrids main bus. Results reveal that proposed control not only stabilizes frequency during transition duration but also minimizes sudden frequency imbalance caused by load variation or wind intermittencies in islanded operation. System is investigated with and without suggested control scheme. The efficacy of proposed strategy has been verified by simulation in MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: energy storage system, island, wind, STATCOM, self-excited induction generator, SEIG, transient

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: T. Aboumahboub, R. Brecha, H. B. Shrestha, U. F. Hutfilter, A. Geiges, W. Hare, M. Schaeffer, L. Welder, M. Gidden

Abstract:

The proposed stringent mitigation targets require an immediate start for a drastic transformation of the whole energy system. The current Australian energy system is mainly centralized and fossil fuel-based in most states with coal and gas-fired plants dominating the total produced electricity over the recent past. On the other hand, the country is characterized by a huge, untapped renewable potential, where wind and solar energy could play a key role in the decarbonization of the Australia’s future energy system. However, integrating high shares of such variable renewable energy sources (VRES) challenges the power system considerably due to their temporal fluctuations and geographical dispersion. This raises the concerns about flexibility gap in the system to ensure the security of supply with increasing shares of such intermittent sources. One main flexibility dimension to facilitate system integration of high shares of VRES is to increase the cross-sectoral integration through coupling of electricity to other energy sectors alongside the decarbonization of the power sector and reinforcement of the transmission grid. This paper applies a multi-sectoral energy system optimization model for Australia. We investigate the cost-optimal configuration of a renewable-based Australian energy system and its transformation pathway in line with the ambitious range of proposed climate change mitigation targets. We particularly analyse the implications of linking the electricity and transport sectors in a prospective, highly renewable Australian energy system.

Keywords: decarbonization, energy system modelling, renewable energy, sector coupling

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Razieh Shamsi, Mehdi Faezipour, Ali Abdolkhani

Abstract:

In this research, the characteristics of composites prepared from waste silk fibers and recycled polycarbonate polymer (used compacted boards) at four levels of 0, 10, 20, and 30% (silk fibers) and using 2% N- 2-Aminoethyl-3-Aminopropyltrimethoxysilane was investigated as a coupling agent and melt process method. Silk fibers (carpet weaving waste) with dimensions of 8-18 mm were prepared, and recycled polymer with 9 mesh grading was ground. Production boards in 3 thicknesses, 3 mm (tensile test samples), 5 mm (bending test samples, water absorption, and thickness shrinkage), 7 mm (impact resistance test samples) ) with a specific weight of 1 gram per cubic centimeter, hot pressing time and temperature of 12 minutes and 190 degrees Celsius with a pressure of 130 bar, cold pressing time of 6 minutes with a pressure of 50 bar and using the coupling agent N- (2- Aminoethyl)-3-aminopropyltrimethoxysilane was prepared in a constant amount of 2% of the dry weight of the filler. The results showed that, in general, by adding silk fibers to the base polymer, compared to the control samples (pure recycled polycarbonate polymer) and also by increasing the amount of silk fibers, almost all the resistances increased. The amount of water absorption of the constructed composite increased with the increase in the amount of silk fibers, and the thickness absorption was equal to 0% even after 72 hours of immersion in water. The thermal resistance of the pure recycled polymer was higher than the prepared composites, and by adding silk fibers to the base polymer and also by increasing the amount of silk fibers from 10 to 30%, the thermal resistance of the composites decreased.

Keywords: wood composite, recycled polycarbonate, silk fibers, polymer

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Nazima Ellahi, Danish Ramzan

Abstract:

There is a growing trend among development economists regarding the importance of financial sector for economic development and growth activities. The development thus introduced, helps to promote welfare effects and poverty alleviation. This study is an attempt to find the nature of link between Islamic banking financing and development of output growth for Pakistan. Time series data set has been utilized for a time period ranging from 1990 to 2010. Following the Phillip Perron (PP) and Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test of unit root this study applied Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method of estimation and found encouraging results in favor of promoting the Islamic banking practices in Pakistan.

Keywords: Islamic finance, poverty alleviation, economic growth, finance, commerce

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

Abstract:

This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Sandra Baßler, Peter Dünow, Mathias Marquardt

Abstract:

A Fourier series based learning control (FSBLC) algorithm for tracking trajectories of mechanical systems with unknown nonlinearities is presented. Two processes are introduced to which the FSBLC with PD controller is applied. One is a simplified service robot capable of climbing stairs due to special wheels and the other is a propeller driven pendulum with nearly the same requirements on control. Additionally to the investigation of learning the feed forward for the desired trajectories some considerations on the implementation of such an algorithm on low cost microcontroller hardware are made. Simulations of the service robot as well as practical experiments on the pendulum show the capability of the used FSBLC algorithm to perform the task of improving control behavior for repetitive task of such mechanical systems.

Keywords: climbing stairs, FSBLC, ILC, service robot

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: D. Prangchumpol

Abstract:

This research presents a forecasting method of requisition document demands for Military units by using Exponential Smoothing methods to analyze data. The data used in the forecast is an actual data requisition document of The Adjutant General Department. The results of the forecasting model to forecast the requisition of the document found that Holt–Winters’ trend and seasonality method of α=0.1, β=0, γ=0 is appropriate and matches for requisition of documents. In addition, the researcher has developed a requisition online system to improve the performance of requisition documents of The Adjutant General Department, and also ensuring that the operation can be checked.

Keywords: requisition, holt–winters, time series, royal thai army

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Adam J. Carinci

Abstract:

Background: The opioid epidemic is the most pressing healthcare crisis of our time. There is increasing recognition that opioids have limited long-term efficacy and are associated with hyperalgesia, addiction, and increased morbidity and mortality. Therefore, alternative strategies to combat chronic pain are paramount. We initiated a multicenter retrospective case series to review the efficacy of DRG stimulation in facilitating opioid tapering, opioid discontinuation and as a viable alternative to chronic opioid therapy. Purpose: The dorsal root ganglion (DRG) plays a key role in the development and maintenance of pain. Recent innovations in neuromodulation, specifically, dorsal root ganglion stimulation, offers an effective alternative to opioids in the treatment of chronic pain. This retrospective case series demonstrates preliminary evidence that DRG stimulation facilitates opioid tapering, opioid discontinuation and presents a viable alternative to chronic opioid therapy. Procedure: This small multicenter retrospective case series provides preliminary evidence that DRG stimulation facilitates opioid weaning, opioid tapering and is a viable option to opioid therapy in the treatment of chronic pain. A retrospective analysis was completed. Visual analog scale pain scores and pain medication usage were collected at the baseline visit and after four weeks, 3 months and 6 months of treatment. Ten consecutive patients across two study centers were included. The pain was rated 7.38 at baseline and decreased to 1.50 at the 4-week follow-up, a reduction of 79.5%. All patients significantly decreased their opioid pain medication use with an average > 30% reduction in morphine equivalents and four were able to discontinue their medications entirely. Conclusion: This Retrospective case series demonstrates preliminary evidence that DRG stimulation facilitates opioid tapering, opioid discontinuation and presents a viable alternative to chronic opioid therapy.

Keywords: dorsal root ganglion, neuromodulation, opioid sparing, stimulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.

Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

Abstract:

In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Jazim Sohail, Filipe Teixeira-Dias

Abstract:

Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) within non-helmeted contact sports is a growing concern due to the serious risk of potential injury. Extensive research is being conducted looking into head kinematics in non-helmeted contact sports utilizing instrumented mouthguards that allow researchers to record accelerations and velocities of the head during and after an impact. This does not, however, allow the location of the impact on the head, and its magnitude and orientation, to be determined. This research proposes and validates two methods to quantify impact locations from instrumented mouthguard kinematic data, one using rigid body dynamics, the other utilizing machine learning. The rigid body dynamics technique focuses on establishing and matching moments from Euler’s and torque equations in order to find the impact location on the head. The methodology is validated with impact data collected from a lab test with the dummy head fitted with an instrumented mouthguard. Additionally, a Hybrid III Dummy head finite element model was utilized to create synthetic kinematic data sets for impacts from varying locations to validate the impact location algorithm. The algorithm calculates accurate impact locations; however, it will require preprocessing of live data, which is currently being done by cross-referencing data timestamps to video footage. The machine learning technique focuses on eliminating the preprocessing aspect by establishing trends within time-series signals from instrumented mouthguards to determine the impact location on the head. An unsupervised learning technique is used to cluster together impacts within similar regions from an entire time-series signal. The kinematic signals established from mouthguards are converted to the frequency domain before using a clustering algorithm to cluster together similar signals within a time series that may span the length of a game. Impacts are clustered within predetermined location bins. The same Hybrid III Dummy finite element model is used to create impacts that closely replicate on-field impacts in order to create synthetic time-series datasets consisting of impacts in varying locations. These time-series data sets are used to validate the machine learning technique. The rigid body dynamics technique provides a good method to establish accurate impact location of impact signals that have already been labeled as true impacts and filtered out of the entire time series. However, the machine learning technique provides a method that can be implemented with long time series signal data but will provide impact location within predetermined regions on the head. Additionally, the machine learning technique can be used to eliminate false impacts captured by sensors saving additional time for data scientists using instrumented mouthguard kinematic data as validating true impacts with video footage would not be required.

Keywords: head impacts, impact location, instrumented mouthguard, machine learning, mTBI

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Ahmed M. Mansour, Ali M. El-Sawy, Ahmed T. Sayed

Abstract:

Logarithms reduce products to sums and powers to products; they play an important role in signal processing, communication and information theory. They are primarily used for hardware calculations, handling multiplications, divisions, powers, and roots effectively. There are three commonly used bases for logarithms; the logarithm with base-10 is called the common logarithm, the natural logarithm with base-e and the binary logarithm with base-2. This paper demonstrates different methods of calculation for log2 showing the complexity of each and finds out the most accurate and efficient besides giving in- sights to their hardware design. We present a new method called Floor Shift for fast calculation of log2, and then we combine this algorithm with Taylor series to improve the accuracy of the output, we illustrate that by using two examples. We finally compare the algorithms and conclude with our remarks.

Keywords: logarithms, log2, floor, iterative, CORDIC, Taylor series

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Vidya Meshram, Shrinivas Surpam, Akshay Kokode, Laxman Shedmake, Ramesh Parchake

Abstract:

Tribal dance form is an integral part of the tribal culture as they represent the traditional culture of the tribal community. This article provide the reasons for the need to preserve the tribal dance form of Indian tribal people as a part of the cultural heritage. This article describe our experience of co-ordination of three organization to conduct a dance performance of Gond Tribe artists in the Mumbai City. This is the part of the promotion of tribal artist at big platform, although the preservation and awareness of tribal dance form in the metro cities. This is an example of an exceptional Inter-Organizational Cooperation between Kosodum Welfare Private Limited, GondwanaJangomDhemsaRelaNrutya Dal &GondwanaMitraMandal, Mumbai, for the preservation of tribal dance form.

Keywords: tribal, art, culture, preservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Lal Hussain, Wajid Aziz, Sajjad Ahmed Nadeem, Saeed Arif Shah, Abdul Majid

Abstract:

Brain electrical activity as reflected in Electroencephalography (EEG) have been analyzed and diagnosed using various techniques. Among them, complexity measure, nonlinearity, disorder, and unpredictability play vital role due to the nonlinear interconnection between functional and anatomical subsystem emerged in brain in healthy state and during various diseases. There are many social and economical issues of alcoholic abuse as memory weakness, decision making, impairments, and concentrations etc. Alcoholism not only defect the brains but also associated with emotional, behavior, and cognitive impairments damaging the white and gray brain matters. A recently developed signal analysis method i.e. Multiscale Permutation Entropy (MPE) is proposed to estimate the complexity of long-range temporal correlation time series EEG of Alcoholic and Control subjects acquired from University of California Machine Learning repository and results are compared with MSE. Using MPE, coarsed grained series is first generated and the PE is computed for each coarsed grained time series against the electrodes O1, O2, C3, C4, F2, F3, F4, F7, F8, Fp1, Fp2, P3, P4, T7, and T8. The results computed against each electrode using MPE gives higher significant values as compared to MSE as well as mean rank differences accordingly. Likewise, ROC and Area under the ROC also gives higher separation against each electrode using MPE in comparison to MSE.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale permutation entropy (MPE), multiscale sample entropy (MSE), permutation entropy (PE), mann whitney test (MMT), receiver operator curve (ROC), complexity measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Kapil Pandey, Vishnu Goyal

Abstract:

Spatial and temporal data analysis is very well known in the field of satellite image processing. When spatial data are correlated with time, series analysis it gives the significant results in change detection studies. In this paper the GIS and Remote sensing techniques has been used to find the change detection using time series satellite imagery of Uttarakhand state during the years of 1990-2010. Natural vegetation, urban area, forest cover etc. were chosen as main landuse classes to study. Landuse/ landcover classes within several years were prepared using satellite images. Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was adopted in this work and finally landuse change index has been generated and graphical models were used to present the changes.

Keywords: GIS, landuse/landcover, spatial and temporal data, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

Abstract:

This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

Abstract:

Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Selman Selim Akyüz, Mete Kazaz

Abstract:

Since The First Gulf War, USA, “Leader of The Free World” has been in trouble with terror. The USA created a complexity in The Middle East and paid the price with terrorist attacks in homeland. USA has made serious mistakes in terms of antiterrorism and fight against its supporters. Democrats have repaired damages caused by the Republican Party's management. Old methods about antiterrorism have been slowly abandoned. Hollywood, too, has played an important part in this war. Sometimes, Hollywood became an unquestioned patriot, sometimes it cried for the death of American Soldiers far away. In this study, messages in The Homeland, broadcast in the USA and a lot of countries around the world, are analyzed in terms of Washington’s foreign policy and position of the CIA in the fight against antiterrorism. The series reflect an orientalist viewpoint and has been criticized for offensive policy against the government. Homeland wanted to offer a perspective for the USA to be the “Leader of The Free World” again but with a liberal-democrat approach, dialogue and rational intelligence methods.

Keywords: antiterrorism, CIA, homeland, USA

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Mireille Vonlanthen, Pasquale Porcu, Ernesto Rivera

Abstract:

Dendritic macromolecules are presenting unique physical and chemical properties. One of them is the faculty of transferring energy from a donor moiety introduced at the periphery to an acceptor moiety at the core, mimicking the antenna effect of the process of photosynthesis. The mechanism of energy transfer is based on the Förster resonance energy exchange and requires some overlap between the emission spectrum of the donor and the absorption spectrum of the acceptor. Since it requires a coupling of transition dipole but no overlap of the physical wavefunctions, the energy transfer by Förster mechanism can occur over quite long distances from 1 to a maximum of 10 nm. However, the efficiency of the transfer depends strongly on distance. The Förster radius is the distance at which 50% of the donor’s emission is deactivated by FRET. In this work, we synthesized and characterized a novel series of dendrimers bearing pyrene moieties at the periphery and a Ru (II) complex at the core. The optical and photophysical properties of these compounds were studied by absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy. Pyrene is a well-studied chromophore that has the particularity to present monomer as well as excimer fluorescence emission. The coordination compounds of Ru (II) are red emitters with low quantum yield and long excited lifetime. We observed an efficient singulet to singulet energy transfer in such constructs. Moreover, it is known that the energy of the MLCT emitting state of Ru (II) can be tuned to become almost isoenegetic with respect to the triplet state of pyrene, leading to an extended phosphorescence lifetime. Using dendrimers bearing pyrene moieties as ligands for Ru (II), we could combine the antenna effect of dendrimers as well as its protection effect to the quenching by dioxygen with lifetime increase due to triplet-triplet equilibrium.

Keywords: dendritic molecules, energy transfer, pyrene, ru-trisbipyridine complex

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Muhammad Arif Jalil, Somchat Sonasang, Preecha Yupapin

Abstract:

This study hypothesizes that the universe is at the center of the universe among the white and black holes, which are the entangled pairs. The coupling between them is in terms of spacetime forming the universe and things. The birth of things is based on exchange energy between the white and black sides. That is, the transition from the white side to the black side is called wave-matter, where it has a speed faster than light with positive gravity. The transition from the black to the white side has a speed faster than light with negative gravity called a wave-particle. In the part where the speed is equal to light, the particle rest mass is formed. Things can appear to take shape here. Thus, the gravity is zero because it is the center. The gravitational force belongs to the Earth itself because it is in a position that is twisted towards the white hole. Therefore, it is negative. The coupling of black-white holes occurs directly on both sides. The mass is formed at the saturation and will create universes and other things. Therefore, it can be hundreds of thousands of universes on both sides of the B and white holes before reaching the saturation point of multi-universes. This work will use the DJV circuit that the research team made as an entangled or two-level system circuit that has been experimentally demonstrated. Therefore, this principle has the possibility for interpretation. This work explains the emergence of multiple universes and can be applied as a practical guideline for searching for universes in the future. Moreover, the results indicate that the DJV circuit can create the elementary particles according to Feynman's diagram with rest mass conditions, which will be discussed for fission and fusion applications.

Keywords: multi-universes, feynman diagram, fission, fusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: K. Meera Saheb, K. Krishna Bhaskar

Abstract:

Complex structures used in many fields of engineering are made up of simple structural elements like beams, plates etc. These structural elements, sometimes carry concentrated masses at discrete points, and when subjected to severe dynamic environment tend to vibrate with large amplitudes. The frequency amplitude relationship is very much essential in determining the response of these structural elements subjected to the dynamic loads. For Timoshenko beams, the effects of shear deformation and rotary inertia are to be considered to evaluate the fundamental linear and nonlinear frequencies. A commonly used method for solving vibration problem is energy method, or a finite element analogue of the same. In the present Coupled Displacement Field method the number of undetermined coefficients is reduced to half when compared to the famous Rayleigh Ritz method, which significantly simplifies the procedure to solve the vibration problem. This is accomplished by using a coupling equation derived from the static equilibrium of the shear flexible structural element. The prime objective of the present paper here is to study, in detail, the effect of a central concentrated mass on the large amplitude free vibrations of uniform shear flexible beams. Accurate closed form expressions for linear frequency parameter for uniform shear flexible beams with a central concentrated mass was developed and the results are presented in digital form.

Keywords: coupled displacement field, coupling equation, large amplitude vibrations, moderately thick plates

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Vaishakh Medikeri

Abstract:

Energy in this Universe is the most basic characteristic of every particle. Since the birth of life on this planet, there has been a quest undertaken by the living beings to analyze, understand and harness the precious natural facts of the nature. In this quest, one of the greatest undertaken is the process of harnessing the naturally available energy. Scientists around the globe have discovered many ways to harness the freely available energy. But even today we speak of “Power Crisis”. Nikola Tesla once said “Nature has stored up in this universe infinite energy”. Energy is everywhere around us in unlimited quantities; all of it waiting to be harnessed by us. Here in this paper a method has been proposed to harness earth's electric field and transmit the stored electric energy using strong magnetic fields and electric fields. In this paper a new technique has been proposed to harness earth's electric field which is everywhere around the world in infinite quantities. Near the surface of the earth there is an electric field of about 120V/m. This electric field is used to charge a capacitor with high capacitance. Later the energy stored is allowed to pass through a device which converts the DC stored into AC. The AC so produced is then passed through a step down transformer to magnify the incoming current. Later the current passes through the RLC circuit. Later the current can be transmitted wirelessly using the principle of resonant inductive coupling. The proposed apparatus can be placed in most of the required places and any circuit tuned to the frequency of the transmitted current can receive the energy. The new source of renewable energy is of great importance if implemented since the apparatus is not costly and can be situated in most of the required places. And also the receiver which receives the transmitted energy is just an RLC circuit tuned to the resonant frequency of the transmitted energy. By using the proposed apparatus the energy losses can be reduced to a very large extent.

Keywords: capacitor, inductive resonant coupling, RLC circuit, transmission of electricity

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Benjamin Blat Belmonte, Stephan Rinderknecht

Abstract:

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) stands at the forefront of innovative strategies designed to address environmental concerns and reduce fossil fuel dependency. As the number of EVs on the roads increases, so too does the potential for their integration into energy markets. This research dives deep into the transformative possibilities of using electric vehicle fleets, specifically electric bus fleets, not just as consumers but as active participants in the energy market. This paper investigates the feasibility and grid effects of electric vehicle fleet operators in the energy market. Our objective centers around a comprehensive exploration of the sector coupling domain, with an emphasis on the economic potential in both electricity and balancing markets. Methodologically, our approach combines data mining techniques with thorough pre-processing, pulling from a rich repository of electricity and balancing market data. Our findings are grounded in the actual operational realities of the bus fleet operator in Darmstadt, Germany. We employ a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) approach, with the bulk of the computations being processed on the High-Performance Computing (HPC) platform ‘Lichtenbergcluster’. Our findings underscore the compelling economic potential of EV fleets in the energy market. With electric buses becoming more prevalent, the considerable size of these fleets, paired with their substantial battery capacity, opens up new horizons for energy market participation. Notably, our research reveals that economic viability is not the sole advantage. Participating actively in the energy market also translates into pronounced positive effects on grid stabilization. Essentially, EV fleet operators can serve a dual purpose: facilitating transport while simultaneously playing an instrumental role in enhancing grid reliability and resilience. This research highlights the symbiotic relationship between the growth of EV fleets and the stabilization of the energy grid. Such systems could lead to both commercial and ecological advantages, reinforcing the value of electric bus fleets in the broader landscape of sustainable energy solutions. In conclusion, the electrification of transport offers more than just a means to reduce local greenhouse gas emissions. By positioning electric vehicle fleet operators as active participants in the energy market, there lies a powerful opportunity to drive forward the energy transition. This study serves as a testament to the synergistic potential of EV fleets in bolstering both economic viability and grid stabilization, signaling a promising trajectory for future sector coupling endeavors.

Keywords: electric vehicle fleet, sector coupling, optimization, electricity market, balancing market

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Wala Abou Saoud, Aymen Amine Assadi, Monia Guiza, Abdelkrim Bouzaza, Wael Aboussaoud, Abdelmottaleb Ouederni, Dominique Wolbert

Abstract:

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) constitute one of the most important families of chemicals involved in atmospheric pollution, causing damage to the environment and human health, and need, consequently, to be eliminated. Among the promising technologies, dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma - photocatalysis coupling reveals very interesting prospects in terms of process synergy of compounds mineralization’s, with low energy consumption. In this study, the removal of organic compounds such butyraldehyde (BUTY) and dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) (exhaust gasses from animal quartering centers.) in air mixture using DBD plasma coupled with photocatalysis was tested, in order to determine whether or not synergy effect was present. The removal efficiency of these pollutants, a selectivity of CO₂ and CO, and byproducts formation such as ozone formation were investigated in order to evaluate the performance of the combined process. For this purpose, a series of experiments were carried out in a continuous reactor. Many operating parameters were also investigated such as the specific energy of discharge, the inlet concentration of pollutant and the flowrate. It appears from this study that, the performance of the process has enhanced and a synergetic effect is observed. In fact, we note an enhancement of 10 % on removal efficiency. It is interesting to note that the combined system leads to better CO₂ selectivity than for plasma. Consequently, intermediates by-products have been reduced due to various other species (O•, N, OH•, O₂•-, O₃, NO₂, NOx, etc.). Additionally, the behavior of combining DBD plasma and photocatalysis has shown that the ozone can be easily also decomposed in presence of photocatalyst.

Keywords: combined process, DBD plasma, photocatalysis, pilot scale, synergetic effect, VOCs

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: F. Z. Tighilt, N. Belhaneche-Bensemra, S. Belhousse, S. Sam, K. Lasmi, N. Gabouze

Abstract:

Recently, the gold nanoparticles (Au NPs) became an active multidisciplinary research topic. First, Au thin films fabricated by alkylthiol-functionalized Au NPs were found to have vapor sensitive conductivities, they were hence widely investigated as electrical chemiresistors for sensing different vapor analytes and even organic molecules in aqueous solutions. Second, Au thin films were demonstrated to have speciallocalized surface plasmon resonances (LSPR), so that highly ordered 2D Au superlattices showed strong collective LSPR bands due to the near-field coupling of adjacent nanoparticles and were employed to detect biomolecular binding. Particularly when alkylthiol ligands were replaced by thiol-terminated polymers, the resulting polymer-modified Au NPs could be readily assembled into 2D nanostructures on solid substrates. Monolayers of polystyrene-coated Au NPs showed typical dipolar near-field interparticle plasmon coupling of LSPR. Such polymer-modified Au nanoparticle films have an advantage that the polymer thickness can be feasibly controlled by changing the polymer molecular weight. In this article, the effect of tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) coatings on the plasmonic properties of ITO interfaces modified with gold nanostructures (Au NSs) is investigated. The interest in developing ITO overlayers is multiple. The presence of a con-ducting ITO overlayer creates a LSPR-active interface, which can serve simultaneously as a working electrode in an electro-chemical setup. The surface of ITO/ Au NPs contains hydroxyl groups that can be used to link functional groups to the interface. Here the covalent linking of nickel /Au NSs/ITO hybrid LSPR platforms will be presented.

Keywords: conducting polymer, metal nanoparticles (NPs), LSPR, poly (3-(pyrrolyl)–carboxylic acid), polypyrrole

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: M. Almutairi, S. Hadjiloucas

Abstract:

The harmonic distortion of voltage is important in relation to power quality due to the interaction between the large diffusion of non-linear and time-varying single-phase and three-phase loads with power supply systems. However, harmonic distortion levels can be reduced by improving the design of polluting loads or by applying arrangements and adding filters. The application of passive filters is an effective solution that can be used to achieve harmonic mitigation mainly because filters offer high efficiency, simplicity, and are economical. Additionally, possible different frequency response characteristics can work to achieve certain required harmonic filtering targets. With these ideas in mind, the objective of this paper is to determine what size single tuned passive filters work in distribution networks best, in order to economically limit violations caused at a given point of common coupling (PCC). This article suggests that a single tuned passive filter could be employed in typical industrial power systems. Furthermore, constrained optimization can be used to find the optimal sizing of the passive filter in order to reduce both harmonic voltage and harmonic currents in the power system to an acceptable level, and, thus, improve the load power factor. The optimization technique works to minimize voltage total harmonic distortions (VTHD) and current total harmonic distortions (ITHD), where maintaining a given power factor at a specified range is desired. According to the IEEE Standard 519, both indices are viewed as constraints for the optimal passive filter design problem. The performance of this technique will be discussed using numerical examples taken from previous publications.

Keywords: harmonics, passive filter, power factor, power quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 285