Search results for: result prediction

Authors: Emmanuel Chinagorom Nwadike, Joseph Tagbo Nwabanne, Matthew Ndubuisi Abonyi, Onyemazu Andrew Azaka

Abstract:

This research focused on the modeling of the convective drying of aerial yam using finite element methods. The thermo-gravimetric analyzer was used to determine the thermal stability of the sample. An aerial yam sample of size 30 x 20 x 4 mm was cut with a mold designed for the purpose and dried in a convective dryer set at 4m/s fan speed and temperatures of 68.58 and 60.56°C. The volume shrinkage of the resultant dried sample was determined by immersing the sample in a toluene solution. The finite element analysis was done with PDE tools in Matlab 2015. Seven kinetic models were employed to model the drying process. The result obtained revealed three regions in the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) profile of aerial yam. The maximum thermal degradation rates of the sample occurred at 432.7°C. The effective thermal diffusivity of the sample increased as the temperature increased from 60.56°C to 68.58°C. The finite element prediction of moisture content of aerial yam at an air temperature of 68.58°C and 60.56°C shows R² of 0.9663 and 0.9155, respectively. There was a good agreement between the finite element predicted moisture content and the measured moisture content, which is indicative of a highly reliable finite element model developed. The result also shows that the best kinetic model for the aerial yam under the given drying conditions was the Logarithmic model with a correlation coefficient of 0.9991.

Keywords: aerial yam, finite element, convective, effective, diffusivity

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Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

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The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen

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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

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In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Yujiang Wu

Abstract:

As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Jong Won, Park, Sung Hyun, Kim

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The kinetic energy to pass subjected to shock and chisel reciprocating piston hydraulic power supplied by the excavator using for the purpose of crushing the rock, and roads, buildings, etc., hydraulic breakers blow. Impact frequency, efficiency measurement of the impact energy, hydraulic breakers, to demonstrate the ability of hydraulic breaker manufacturers and users to a very important item. And difficult in order to confirm the initial performance degradation in the life of the hydraulic breaker has been thought to be a problem.In this study, we measure the efficiency of hydraulic breaker, Impact energy and Impact frequency, the degradation analysis of research to predict the life.

Keywords: impact energy, impact frequency, hydraulic breaker, life prediction

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

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In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Hassan Baji, Chun-Qing Li, Wei Yang

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Water seepage is one of the most common causes of damage in tunnel structures, which can cause direct and indirect e.g. reinforcement corrosion and calcium leaching damages. Estimation of water seepage or inflow is one of the main challenges in probabilistic assessment of tunnels. The methodology proposed in this study is an attempt for mathematically modeling the water seepage in tunnel structures and further predicting its service life. Using the time-dependent reliability, water seepage is formulated as a failure mode, which can be used for prediction of service life. Application of the formulated seepage failure mode to a case study tunnel is presented.

Keywords: water seepage, tunnels, time-dependent reliability, service life

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Authors: Shauma L. Tamba

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This study examined whether morality is the most important aspect in actual behavior. The prediction was that people tend to behave in line with moral (as compared to competence) norms, especially when such norms are presented by their ingroup. The actual behavior that was tested was support for a military intervention without a mandate from the UN. In addition, this study also examined whether identification with the ingroup and religion moderated the effect of group and norm on support for the norm that was prescribed by their ingroup. The prediction was that those who identified themselves higher with the ingroup moral would show a higher support for the norm. Furthermore, the prediction was also that those who have religion would show a higher support for the norm in the ingroup moral rather than competence. In an online survey, participants were asked to read a scenario in which a military intervention without a mandate was framed as either the moral (but stupid) or smart (but immoral) thing to do by members of their own (ingroup) or another (outgroup) society. This study found that when people identified themselves with the smart (but immoral) norm, they showed a higher support for the norm. However, when people identified themselves with the moral (but stupid) norm, they tend to show a lesser support towards the norm. Most of the results in the study did not support the predictions. Possible explanations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: morality, competence, ingroup identification, religion, group norm

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Authors: Nima Dastanboo, Xiao-Qing Li, Hamed Gharibdoost

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The purpose of this study is to investigate about the geological properties ahead of a tunnel face with using Electrical Resistivity Tomography ERT and Tunnel Seismic Prediction TSP303 methods. In deep tunnels with hydro-geological conditions, it is important to study the geological structures of the region before excavating tunnels. Otherwise, it would lead to unexpected accidents that impose serious damage to the project. For constructing Nosoud tunnel in west of Iran, the ERT and TSP303 methods are employed to predict the geological conditions dynamically during the excavation. In this paper, based on the engineering background of Nosoud tunnel, the important results of applying these methods are discussed. This work demonstrates seismic method and electrical tomography as two geophysical techniques that are able to detect a tunnel. The results of these two methods were being in agreement with each other but the results of TSP303 are more accurate and quality. In this case, the TSP 303 method was a useful tool for predicting unstable geological structures ahead of the tunnel face during excavation. Thus, using another geophysical method together with TSP303 could be helpful as a decision support in excavating, especially in complicated geological conditions.

Keywords: tunnel seismic prediction (TSP303), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), seismic wave, velocity analysis, low-velocity zones

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Authors: Behzad Behnia, Noah LaRussa-Trott

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In recent years, fibers have been successfully used as an additive to reinforce asphalt concrete materials and to enhance the sustainability and resiliency of transportation infrastructure. Roads covered with fiber-reinforced asphalt concrete (FRAC) require less frequent maintenance and tend to have a longer lifespan. The present work investigates the application of sasobit-coated aramid fibers in asphalt pavements and employs machine learning to develop prediction models to evaluate the cracking performance of FRAC materials. For the experimental part of the study, the effects of several important parameters such as fiber content, fiber length, and testing temperature on fracture characteristics of FRAC mixtures were thoroughly investigated. Two mechanical performance tests, i.e., the disk-shaped compact tension [DC(T)] and indirect tensile [ID(T)] strength tests, as well as the non-destructive acoustic emission test, were utilized to experimentally measure the cracking behavior of the FRAC material in both macro and micro level, respectively. The experimental results were used to train the supervised machine learning approach in order to establish prediction models for fracture performance of the FRAC mixtures in the field. Experimental results demonstrated that adding fibers improved the overall fracture performance of asphalt concrete materials by increasing their fracture energy, tensile strength and lowering their 'embrittlement temperature'. FRAC mixtures containing long-size fibers exhibited better cracking performance than regular-size fiber mixtures. The developed prediction models of this study could be easily employed by pavement engineers in the assessment of the FRAC pavements.

Keywords: fiber reinforced asphalt concrete, machine learning, cracking performance tests, prediction model

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Authors: Yusuf S. Dambatta, Ahmed A. D. Sarhan

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Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the most prominent rapid prototyping (RP) technologies which is being used to efficiently fabricate CAD 3D geometric models. However, the process is coupled with many drawbacks, of which the surface quality of the manufactured RP parts is among. Hence, studies relating to improving the surface roughness have been a key issue in the field of RP research. In this work, a technique of modelling the surface roughness in FDM is presented. Using experimentally measured surface roughness response of the FDM parts, an ANFIS prediction model was developed to obtain the surface roughness in the FDM parts using the main critical process parameters that affects the surface quality. The ANFIS model was validated and compared with experimental test results.

Keywords: surface roughness, fused deposition modelling (FDM), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), orientation

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Lavinia B. Dulla

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The exploration study of the fuzzy regression approach attempts to present that fuzzy regression can be used as a possible alternative to classical regression. It likewise seeks to assess the differences and characteristics of simple linear regression and fuzzy regression using the width of prediction interval, mean absolute deviation, and variance of residuals. Based on the simple linear regression model, the fuzzy regression approach is worth considering as an alternative to simple linear regression when the sample size is between 10 and 20. As the sample size increases, the fuzzy regression approach is not applicable to use since the assumption regarding large sample size is already operating within the framework of simple linear regression. Nonetheless, it can be suggested for a practical alternative when decisions often have to be made on the basis of small data.

Keywords: fuzzy regression approach, minimum fuzziness criterion, interval regression, prediction interval

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: Chang He, Hiroshi Tamura, Hiroshi Katsuchi, Jiaqi Wang

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In this study, the aim is to infer the slip limit (static friction limit) of contact interfaces in bolt friction joints by analyzing other bolt friction joints with the same contact surface but in a different shape. By using the Weibull distribution to deal with microelements on the contact surface statistically, the slip limit of a certain type of bolt joint was predicted from other types of bolt joint with the same contact surface. As a result, this research succeeded in predicting the slip limit of bolt joins with different numbers of contact surfaces and with different numbers of bolt rows.

Keywords: bolt joints, slip coefficient, finite element method, Weibull distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

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Structural Health monitoring systems (SHM) are commonly used to identify and assess structural damage. In terms of damage detection, SHM needs to periodically collect data from sensors placed in the structure as damage-sensitive features. This includes abnormal changes caused by the strain field and abnormal symptoms of the structure, such as damage and deterioration. Currently, deploying sensors on a large scale in a building structure is a challenge. In this study, a highly stretchable strain sensors are used in this study to collect data sets of strain generated on the surface of full-size reinforced concrete (RC) frames under extreme cyclic load application. This sensing sheet can be switched freely between the test bending strain and the axial strain to achieve two different configurations. On this basis, the deep neural network prediction model of the frame beam and frame column is established. The training results show that the method can accurately predict the strain value and has good generalization ability. The two deep neural network prediction models will also be deployed in the SHM system in the future as part of the intelligent strain sensor system.

Keywords: strain sensing sheets, deep neural networks, strain measurement, SHM system, RC frames

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Authors: Wu Peng, Anders Liljerehn, Martin Magnevall

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In metal cutting, tool wear gradually changes the micro geometry of the cutting edge. Today there is a significant gap in understanding the impact these geometrical changes have on the cutting forces which governs tool deflection and heat generation in the cutting zone. Accurate models and understanding of the interaction between the work piece and cutting tool leads to improved accuracy in simulation of the cutting process. These simulations are useful in several application areas, e.g., optimization of insert geometry and machine tool monitoring. This study aims to develop an extended Kienzle force model to account for the effect of rake angle variations and tool flank wear have on the cutting forces. In this paper, the starting point sets from cutting force measurements using orthogonal turning tests of pre-machined flanches with well-defined width, using triangular coated inserts to assure orthogonal condition. The cutting forces have been measured by dynamometer with a set of three different rake angles, and wear progression have been monitored during machining by an optical measuring collaborative robot. The method utilizes the measured cutting forces with the inserts flank wear progression to extend the mechanistic cutting forces model with flank wear as an input parameter. The adapted cutting forces model is validated in a turning process with commercial cutting tools. This adapted cutting forces model shows the significant capability of prediction of cutting forces accounting for tools flank wear and different-rake-angle cutting tool inserts. The result of this study suggests that the nonlinear effect of tools flank wear and interaction between the work piece and the cutting tool can be considered by the developed cutting forces model.

Keywords: cutting force, kienzle model, predictive model, tool flank wear

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Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

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The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user

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Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

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In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Kuo-Wei Liao, Jessica Gitomarsono

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Bridge reliability against natural hazards such as floods or earthquakes is an interdisciplinary problem that involves a wide range of knowledge. Moreover, due to the global climate change, engineers have to design a structure against the multi-hazard threats. Currently, few of the practical design guideline has included such concept. The bridge foundation in Taiwan often does not have a uniform width. However, few of the researches have focused on safety evaluation of a bridge with a complex pier. Investigation of the scouring depth under such situation is very important. Thus, this study first focuses on investigating and improving the scour prediction formula for a bridge with complicated foundation via experiments and artificial intelligence. Secondly, a probabilistic design procedure is proposed using the established prediction formula for practical engineers under the multi-hazard attacks.

Keywords: bridge, reliability, multi-hazards, scour

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Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

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The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of predictive models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this research, 176 crude palm oil (CPO) samples acquired from Felda Johor Bulker Sdn Bhd were studied. A FOSS NIRSystem was used to tak e absorbance measurements from the sample. The wavelength range for the spectral measurement is taken at 1600nm to 1900nm. Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) prediction model with 50 optimal number of principal components was implemented to study the relationship between the measured Free Fatty Acid (FFA) values and the measured spectral absorption. PLSR showed predictive ability of FFA values with correlative coefficient (R) of 0.9808 for the training set and 0.9684 for the testing set.

Keywords: palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, PLSR

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Authors: Zane Turner, Kevin Labille, Susan Gauch

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Sentiment analysis is a broad and expanding field that aims to extract and classify opinions from textual data. Lexicon-based approaches are based on the use of a sentiment lexicon, i.e., a list of words each mapped to a sentiment score, to rate the sentiment of a text chunk. Our work focuses on predicting stock price change using a sentiment lexicon built from financial conference call logs. We present a method to generate a sentiment lexicon based upon an existing probabilistic approach. By using a domain-specific lexicon, we outperform traditional techniques and demonstrate that domain-specific sentiment lexicons provide higher accuracy than generic sentiment lexicons when predicting stock price change.

Keywords: computational finance, sentiment analysis, sentiment lexicon, stock movement prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 107