Search results for: load estimation

Authors: Mohammed Alhadi Ebrahiem

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This study was designed to investigate the effect of breed and feeding level before slaughter on the skin\leather quality of the three main breeds of Sudan goats. Thirty (30) pieces of fresh skins from the three goat breeds (an average age 1-1.5 years) were chosen for the study purpose. For whole variations between the three breeds in two levels of feeding (poor and rich pastures) Complete Randomized Design (CRD) was used for data analysis. The results revealed that, leather weight (kg), elongation%, tensile strength (kg/cm2), cracking load (kg), thickness (mm), tear load (kg/cm) and chrome% findings were significantly affected (P≥0.05) by breed variation. Flexibility, moisture%, Ash% and fat % were not significantly affected (P ≥ 0.05) by breed. On the other hand, skin weight (kg), Cracking load (kg), Tear load (kg/cm) and Ash% were significantly affected (P≥0.05) by pasture quality. While Leather Elongation%, Tensile strength (kg/cm2), Thickness (mm), Flexibility, Moisture%, Fat % and Chrome% were not statistically (P ≥ 0.05) affected by pastures quality.

Keywords: skin\leather quality, goats leather, natural pasture, Sudan

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Authors: Amir H. Bayat, Mohammad R. Alipour, Saeed Khamneh

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As the respiration via nose is important physiologically, many studies have been done about nasal breathing that switches to oronasal breathing during exercise. The aim of this study was to assess the role of anterior nasal resistance as one of the effective factors on this switching. Twelve young, healthy, non-athletic and non-smoker male volunteers with normal BMI were selected after physical examination and participated in exercise protocol, including measurement of the ventilation, work load and oronasal switching point (OSP) during exercise, and anterior rhinomanometry at rest. The protocol was an incremental exercise with 25 watt increase in work load per minute up to OSP occurrence. There was a significant negative correlation between resting total anterior nasal resistance with OSP, work load and ventilation (p<0.05, r= -0.709). Resting total anterior nasal resistance can be considered as an important factor on OSP occurrence. So, the reducing the resistance of nasal passage may increase nasal respiration tolerance for longer time during exercise.

Keywords: anterior nasal resistance, exercise, OSP, ventilation, work load

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Authors: Taejin Kim, Heonwoo Lee, Jong-Ho Kim, Dongchul Lee

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Recently, there have been various high-rise building projects which reflect unique inspiration from architects to their feature. And it is frequently found that some of these buildings have diagrid structural system. Diagrid system provides engineers many options for structural plan, since it has triangular module so it can form a number of complex shapes. Unlike braced frame systems, diagonal members in diagrid system resist gravity and horizontal loads simultaneously. Correspondingly, diagrid members take roles of both beams and columns, and it is expected that their ductile capacity may depend on the amount of gravity loads. However, not enough studies have been made for this issue so far, which means that there is demand of examination on the seismic behavior of diagrid members under large gravity loads. Therefore, in this study, the ductile capacity of diagrid members was evaluated through analytical and experimental method. Several cases that have different vertical load condition were set up for both approaches to consider the effect of initial compression force due to gravity load. Regarding the result, it was found that buckling in a diagonal member occurs at smaller drift angle when larger gravity load acts on the specimen, which also reduces the amount of energy dissipation. It means that axial stress in a diagonal member reaches critical buckling force early due to the combined axial force from not only horizontal load but also gravity load.

Keywords: buckling, diagrid, ductility, seismic performance

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Authors: Raghunath Arnab

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The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

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Authors: Wang Guangda, Ma Jun, Zhao Caiqi, Pan Rui

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Wind load is the main control load of large statue structures. Due to the irregular plane and elevation and uneven outer contour, statues’ shape coefficient can not pick up from the current code. Currently a common practice is based on wind tunnel test. But this method is time-consuming and high cost. In this paper, based on the fundamental theory of CFD, using fluid dynamics software of Fluent 15.0, a few large statue structure of 40 to 70m high, which are located in china , including large fairy statues and large Buddha statues, are analyzed by numerical wind tunnel. The results are contrasted with the recommended values in load code and the wind tunnel test results respectively. Results show that the shape coefficient has a good reliability by the numerical wind tunnel method of this kind of building. This will has a certain reference value of wind load values for large statues’ structure.

Keywords: large statue structure, shape coefficient, irregular structure, wind tunnel test, numerical wind tunnel simulation

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Authors: Bryan Young, Andrew Wodehouse, Marion Sheridan

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The availability of working memory has long been identified as a critical aspect of an instructional design. Many conventional instructional procedures impose irrelevant or unrelated cognitive loads on the learner due to the fact that they were created without contemplation, or understanding, of cognitive work load. Learning to physically operate traditional products can be viewed as a learning process akin to any other. As such, many of today's products, such as cars, boats, and planes, which have traditional controls that predate modern user-centered design techniques may be imposing irrelevant or unrelated cognitive loads on their operators. The goal of the research was to investigate the fundamental relationships between physical inputs, resulting actions, and learnability. The results showed that individuals can quickly adapt to input/output reversals across dimensions, however, individuals struggle to cope with the input/output when the dimensions are rotated due to the resulting increase in cognitive load.

Keywords: cognitive load theory, instructional design, physical product interactions, usability design

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, prediction modeling, rail track degradation

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Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas

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The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

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This research proposes a methodology to estimate the customer order lead time in the supply chain based on the process capability index. The cases when the process output is normally distributed and when it is not are considered. The relationships between the system capability indices in both service and manufacturing applications, delivery system reliability and the percentages of orders delivered after their promised due dates are presented. The proposed method can be used to examine the current process capability to deliver the orders before the promised lead-time. If the system was found to be incapable, the method can be used to help revise the current lead-time to a proper value according to the service reliability level selected by the management. Numerical examples and a case study describing the lead time estimation methodology and testing the system capability of delivering the orders before their promised due date are illustrated.

Keywords: lead-time estimation, process capability index, delivery system reliability, statistical analysis, service achievement index, service quality

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: R. Mehta, M. Ghogomu, B. Schoel

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Reports appeared in 2020 about China detecting SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19) on frozen meat, shrimp, and food packaging material. In this study, we examined the use of swabs for the detection of Covid-19 on meat samples, and chicken breast (CB) was used as a model. Methods: Heat inactivated SARS-Cov-2 virus (IV) from Microbiologics was loaded onto the CB, swabbing was done, and the recovered inactivated virus was subjected to the Machery & Nagel NucleoSpin RNAVirus kit for RNA isolation according to manufacturer's instructions. For RT-PCR, the IDT 2019-nCoV RUO Covid-19 test kit was used with the Taqman Fast Virus 1-step master mix. The limit of detection (LOD) of viral load recovered from the CB was determined under various conditions: first on frozen CB where the IV was introduced on a defined area, then on frozen CB, with IV spread-out, and finally, on thawed CB. Results: The lowest amount of IV which can be reliably detected on frozen CB was a load of 1,000 - 2,000 IV copies where the IV was loaded on one spot of about 1 square inch. Next, the IV was spread out over a whole frozen CB about 16 square inches. The IV could be recovered at a lowest load of 4,000 to 8,000 copies. Furthermore, the effects of temperature change on viral load recovery was investigated i.e., if raw unfrozen meat became contaminated and remains for 1 hour at 4°C or gets refrozen. The amount of IV recovered successfully from CB kept at 4°C and the refrozen CB was similar to the recovery gotten from loading the IV directly on the frozen CB. In conclusion, an assay using swabs was successfully established for the detection of SARS-Cov-2 on frozen or raw (unfrozen) CB with a minimal load of up to 8,000 copies spread over 16 square inches.

Keywords: assay, COVID-19, meat, SARS-Cov-2

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Authors: Farzaneh Khorram

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This paper endeavors to construct a block model to assess grinding energy consumption (CCE) and pinpoint blocks with the highest potential for energy usage during the grinding process within a specified region. Leveraging geostatistical techniques, particularly joint estimation, or simulation, based on geometallurgical data from various mineral processing stages, our objective is to forecast CCE across the study area. The dataset encompasses variables obtained from 2754 drill samples and a block model comprising 4680 blocks. The initial analysis encompassed exploratory data examination, variography, multivariate analysis, and the delineation of geological and structural units. Subsequent analysis involved the assessment of contacts between these units and the estimation of CCE via cokriging, considering its correlation with SPI. The selection of blocks exhibiting maximum CCE holds paramount importance for cost estimation, production planning, and risk mitigation. The study conducted exploratory data analysis on lithology, rock type, and failure variables, revealing seamless boundaries between geometallurgical units. Simulation methods, such as Plurigaussian and Turning band, demonstrated more realistic outcomes compared to cokriging, owing to the inherent characteristics of geometallurgical data and the limitations of kriging methods.

Keywords: geometallurgy, multivariate analysis, plurigaussian, turning band method, cokriging

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Authors: Ahmed Elkholy

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Most power transmission cases use gearing in general, and worm gearing, in particular for energy utilization. Therefore, designing gears for minimum weight and maximum power transmission is the main target of this study. In this regard, a new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using a well-established criteria. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire worm gear set loading and stressing was determined. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analytical accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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Authors: Qais H. Alsafasfeh

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The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model. The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model.

Keywords: load forecast, peak demand, spatial load, electrical distribution

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Authors: B. Kędra, R. Małkowski

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This paper presents information on Power System Component Simulator – a device designed for LINTE^2 laboratory owned by Gdansk University of Technology in Poland. In this paper, we first provide an introductory information on the Power System Component Simulator and its capabilities. Then, the concept of the unit is presented. Requirements for the unit are described as well as proposed and introduced functions are listed. Implementation details are given. Hardware structure is presented and described. Information about used communication interface, data maintenance and storage solution, as well as used Simulink real-time features are presented. List and description of all measurements is provided. Potential of laboratory setup modifications is evaluated. Lastly, the results of experiments performed using Power System Component Simulator are presented. This includes simulation of under frequency load shedding, frequency and voltage dependent characteristics of groups of load units, time characteristics of group of different load units in a chosen area.

Keywords: power converter, Simulink Real-Time, Matlab, load, tap controller

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Authors: T. Yilmaz, N. Kirac

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Beam-column elements are defined as structural members subjected to a combination of axial and bending forces. Lateral torsional buckling is one of the major failure modes in which beam-columns that are bent about its strong axis may buckle out of the plane by deflecting laterally and twisting. This study presents a compact closed-form equation that it can be used for calculating critical lateral torsional-buckling load of beam-columns with monosymmetric sections in the presence of a known axial load. Lateral-torsional buckling behavior of beam-columns subjected to constant axial force and various transverse load cases are investigated by using Ritz method in order to establish proposed equation. Lateral-torsional buckling loads calculated by presented formula are compared to finite element model results. ABAQUS software is utilized to generate finite element models of beam-columns. It is found out that lateral-torsional buckling load of beam-columns with monosymmetric sections can be determined by proposed equation and can be safely used in design.

Keywords: lateral-torsional buckling, stability, beam-column, monosymmetric section

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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This study proposes a regression model with flexible spreads for fuzzy input-output data to cope with the situation that the existing measures cannot reflect the actual estimation error. The main idea is that a dissemblance index (DI) is carefully identified and defined for precisely measuring the actual estimation error. Moreover, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is adopted for determining more representative numeric regression coefficients. Notably, to comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed model with other ones, three different criteria are adopted. The results from commonly used test numerical examples and an application to Taiwan's business monitoring indicator illustrate that the proposed dissemblance index method not only produces valid fuzzy regression models for fuzzy input-output data, but also has satisfactory and stable performance in terms of the total estimation error based on these three criteria.

Keywords: dissemblance index, forecasting, fuzzy sets, linear regression

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Authors: Parveen K. Saini, Tarun Agarwal

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An investigation into the effect of countersunk depth, plate thickness, countersunk angle and plate width on the stress concentration around countersunk hole is carried out with the help of finite element analysis. The variation of stress concentration with respect to these parameters is studied for three types of loading viz. uniformly distributed load, uniformly varying load and functionally distributed load. The results of the finite element analysis are interpreted and some conclusions are drawn. The distribution of stress concentration around countersunk hole in isotropic plates simply supported at all the edges is found similar and is independent of loading. The maximum stress concentration also occurs at a particular point irrespective of the loading conditions.

Keywords: stress concentration factor, countersunk hole, finite element, ANSYS

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Zezouri Noura

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This paper studies the effects of voltage sags, both symmetrical and unsymmetrical, on the three-phase Synchronous Machine (SM) when powering an isolate load or infinite bus bar. The vast majority of the electrical power generation systems in the world is consist of synchronous generators coupled to the electrical network though a transformer. Voltage sags on SM cause speed variations, current and torque peaks and hence may cause tripping and equipment damage. The consequences of voltage sags in the machine behavior depends on different factors such as its magnitude (or depth), duration , the parameters of the machine and also the size of load. In this study, we consider the machine feeds an infinite bus bar in the first and the isolate load using symmetric and asymmetric defaults to see the behavior of the machine in both case the simulation have been used on SIMULINK MATLAB.

Keywords: power quality, voltage sag, synchronous generator, infinite system

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Authors: S. H. Kazmi, T. Ahmed, K. Javed, A. Ghani

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In this paper static scheme of under-frequency based load shedding is considered for chemical and petrochemical industries with islanded distribution networks relying heavily on the primary commodity to ensure minimum production loss, plant downtime or critical equipment shutdown. A simplistic methodology is proposed for in-house implementation of this scheme using underfrequency relays and a step by step guide is provided including the techniques to calculate maximum percentage overloads, frequency decay rates, time based frequency response and frequency based time response of the system. Case study of FFL electrical system is utilized, presenting the actual system parameters and employed load shedding settings following the similar series of steps. The arbitrary settings are then verified for worst overload conditions (loss of a generation source in this case) and comprehensive system response is then investigated.

Keywords: islanding, under-frequency load shedding, frequency rate of change, static UFLS

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Authors: Harry Aginta

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Using Phillips curve framework, this paper seeks for new empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation and output in a major emerging economy. By exploiting sub-national data, the contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output nexus. This is very relevant for Indonesia as its central bank has been adopting inflation targeting framework based on national consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Second, the study tests the relevance of mining sector in output gap estimation. The test for mining sector is important to control for the effects of mining regulation and nominal effects of coal prices on real economic activities. Third, the paper applies panel econometric method by incorporating regional variation that help to improve model estimation. The results from this paper confirm the strong presence of Phillips curve in Indonesia. Positive output gap that reflects excess demand condition gives rise to the inflation rates. In addition, the elasticity of output gap is higher if the mining sector is excluded from output gap estimation. In addition to inflation adaptation, the dynamics of exchange rate and international commodity price are also found to affect inflation significantly. The results are robust to the alternative measurement of output gap

Keywords: Phillips curve, inflation, Indonesia, panel data

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Edén Bojórquez, David de León Escobedo

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A life-cycle optimization procedure to establish the best load factors combinations for seismic design of buildings, is proposed. The expected cost of damage from future earthquakes within the life of the structure is estimated, and realistic cost functions are assumed. The functions include: Repair cost, cost of contents damage, cost associated with loss of life, cost of injuries and economic loss. The loads considered are dead, live and earthquake load. The study is performed for reinforced concrete buildings located in Mexico City. The buildings are modeled as multiple-degree-of-freedom frame structures. The parameter selected to measure the structural damage is the maximum inter-story drift. The structural models are subjected to 31 soft-soil ground motions recorded in the Lake Zone of Mexico City. In order to obtain the annual structural failure rates, a numerical integration method is applied.

Keywords: load factors, life-cycle analysis, seismic design, reinforced concrete buildings

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

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Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Kyugneun Lee, Ikjin Lee

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Parameter estimation with inverse problem often suffers from unfavorable conditions in the real world. Useless data and many input parameters make the problem complicated or insoluble. Data refinement and reformulation of the problem can solve that kind of difficulties. In this research, a method to solve the rank deficient inverse problem is suggested. A multi-physics system which has rank deficiency caused by response correlation is treated. Impeditive information is removed and the problem is reformulated to sequential estimations using Bayesian network (BN) and subset groups. At first, subset grouping of the responses is performed. Feature selection with singular value decomposition (SVD) is used for the grouping. Next, BN inference is used for sequential conditional estimation according to the group hierarchy. Directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure is organized to maximize the estimation ability. Variance ratio of response to noise is used to pairing the estimable parameters by each response.

Keywords: Bayesian network, feature selection, rank deficiency, statistical inverse analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Jahanzaib, Muhammad Z. A. Khan, Junaid Khayyam

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Islamabad is the capital of Pakistan with the population of 1.365 million people and with a vehicular fleet size of 0.75 million. The vehicular fleet size is growing annually by the rate of 11%. Vehicular emissions are major source of Black carbon (BC). In developing countries like Pakistan, most of the vehicles consume conventional fuels like Petrol, Diesel, and CNG. These fuels are the major emitters of pollutants like CO, CO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and particulate matter (PM10). Carbon dioxide and methane are the leading contributor to the global warming with a global share of 9-26% and 4-9% respectively. NOx is the precursor of nitrates which ultimately form aerosols that are noxious to human health. In this study, COPERT (Computer program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) was used for vehicular emission estimation in Islamabad. COPERT is a windows based program which is developed for the calculation of emissions from the road transport sector. The emissions were calculated for the year of 2016 include pollutants like CO, NOx, VOC, and PM and energy consumption. The different variable was input to the model for emission estimation including meteorological parameters, average vehicular trip length and respective time duration, fleet configuration, activity data, degradation factor, and fuel effect. The estimated emissions for CO, CH4, CO2, NOx, and PM10 were found to be 9814.2, 44.9, 279196.7, 3744.2 and 304.5 tons respectively.

Keywords: COPERT Model, emission estimation, PM10, vehicular emission

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Authors: Nhat-To Huynh, Chen-Fu Chien

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Textile batch dyeing scheduling problem is complicated which includes batch formation, batch assignment on machines, batch sequencing with sequence-dependent setup time. Most manufacturers schedule their orders manually that are time consuming and inefficient. More power methods are needed to improve the solution. Motivated by the real needs, this study aims to propose approaches in which genetic algorithm is developed with multi-subpopulation and hybridised with estimation of distribution algorithm to solve the constructed problem for minimising the makespan. A heuristic algorithm is designed and embedded into the proposed algorithms to improve the ability to get out of the local optima. In addition, an empirical study is conducted in a textile company in Taiwan to validate the proposed approaches. The results have showed that proposed approaches are more efficient than simulated annealing algorithm.

Keywords: estimation of distribution algorithm, genetic algorithm, multi-subpopulation, scheduling, textile dyeing

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems, electric, computer systems engineering

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Authors: Zhiyong Zheng, Xu Li, Liang Huang, Zhengliang Sun, Jianhua Xu

Abstract:

Yaw angle plays a significant role in many vehicle safety applications, such as collision avoidance and lane-keeping system. Although the estimation of the yaw angle has been extensively studied in existing literature, it is still the main challenge to simultaneously achieve a reliable and cost-effective solution in complex urban environments. This paper proposes a multi-stage learning framework to estimate the yaw angle with a monocular camera, which can deal with the challenge in a more reliable manner. In the first stage, an efficient road detection network is designed to extract the road region, providing a highly reliable reference for the estimation. In the second stage, a variational auto-encoder (VAE) is proposed to learn the distribution patterns of road regions, which is particularly suitable for modeling the changing patterns of yaw angle under different driving maneuvers, and it can inherently enhance the generalization ability. In the last stage, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network is used to capture the temporal correlations of the learned patterns, which is capable to further improve the estimation accuracy due to the fact that the changes of deflection angle are relatively easier to recognize among continuous frames. Afterward, the yaw angle can be obtained by combining the estimated deflection angle and the road direction stored in a roadway map. Through effective multi-stage learning, the proposed framework presents high reliability while it maintains better accuracy. Road-test experiments with different driving maneuvers were performed in complex urban environments, and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, multi-stage learning, reliable estimation, variational auto-encoder, yaw angle

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Authors: Pyung Soo Kim, Eung Hyuk Lee, Mun Suck Jang

Abstract:

In the current paper, an indoor positioning system is proposed with consideration of measurement delay. Firstly, an estimation filter with a measurement delay is designed for the indoor positioning mechanism under a weighted least square criterion, which utilizes only finite measurements on the most recent window. The proposed estimation filtering based scheme gives the filtered estimates for position, velocity and acceleration of moving target in real-time, while removing undesired noisy effects and preserving desired moving positions. Secondly, the proposed scheme is shown to have good inherent properties such as unbiasedness, efficiency, time-invariance, deadbeat, and robustness due to the finite memory structure. Finally, computer simulations shows that the performance of the proposed estimation filtering based scheme can outperform to the existing infinite memory filtering based mechanism.

Keywords: indoor positioning system, wireless sensor networks, measurement delay

Procedia PDF Downloads 484